SB Nation User Blog: One.Cool.Customer

NFL Power Rankings - Week 16 - Final Edition

One.Cool.Customer — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 10:36:40 -0000

Here's the final edition of our weekly power ranking roundup heading into week 16.

1. Major Media Networks & Affiliates

NationalFootballPost.com: 5th (+6). "Too big of a jump for the Cowboys? We don’t think so for a team that could go on a run with Romo at QB."

[update] Don Banks' Power Rankings: 7th (+4). "Shaun Suisham for Nick Folk sounds like replacing a problem with a dilemma, but in fairness to the ex-Redskins kicker, he was having a fairly solid season this year until missing that crucial 23-yarder against the Saints a few weeks back. Our favorite Folk hero, on the other hand, leads the NFL in missed field goals this season with 10, and he?s not likely to get a crack at increasing that total now that Dallas has dismissed him. Curious year all around for NFL kickers, whose accuracy has strangely dipped in 2009."

Peter King in MMQB: 5h (+5). "For one night, at least, the Cowboys were the best team in football. Now they have to win Sunday night at their nemesis, Washington, where they've lost three of the past four."

Two Cowboys make his Awards Of The Week Section:

Defensive Player of the Week: DeMarcus Ware, OLB. "Sermonize if you wish about the intelligence of Ware playing six nights after being removed from the field on a body board, fully immobilized. But Ware was a force all night. At the end of the first half, he stopped a Saints' drive with a strip-sack of Drew Brees, leading to a Dallas field goal and a 17-3 halftime lead. Then, with the Superdome crowd exploding with 12 seconds to go at the Dallas 42, Brees went back on a last, desperate throw, and he never made it. Ware stripped him again, nose man Jay Ratliff recovered, and the Saints weren't unbeaten anymore. Ware saved his best game of the year for the most important game of the year."
Coach of the Week: Jason Garrett, offensive coordinator. "I thought he had a brilliant gameplan, well-executed by Tony Romo and well-designed by himself. The Cowboys put up 439 yards and went 8-of-15 in third-down conversions in the deafening maw of the Superdome, where offensive players had trouble hearing adjustments by Romo at the line of scrimmage. On the vital fourth-quarter drive that ate the clock and should have resulted in a game-ensuring gimme field goal (that was missed) by headcase Nick Folk, Garrett had no problem with having Miles Austin, John Phillips and Sam Hurd be Romo's targets on consecutive plays with the season on the line. That's trusting your roster."

Pete Prisco at CBSSports.com: 5th (+4). "Can we put the December swoon talk to rest? Not if they lose this week at Washington we can't. But they get big props for beating the Saints."

Fox Sports: 8th (+3). "This is the Cowboys team people have been waiting for the past few years, and beating the undefeated Saints was the best win of the Wade Phillips era — partly because of the month showing on the calendar, but mostly because their playoff lives were hitting jeopardy mode. So now instead of three straight losses and being on the verge of missing the playoffs, Dallas controls its destiny and can capture the NFC East with wins in their final two games."

SportingNews.com: 8th (+3). "After a huge win over the Saints, they need to finish the job by making the playoffs."

Michael Silver at Yahoo Sports: 8th (+1). "How ridiculously resilient is DeMarcus Ware?"

NFL.com's Brain Trust of Experts: 9th (+4). Gil Brandt, of all people, has us lowest at 11th.

ESPN: 10th (+1). "The Week 15 victory over the Saints might have saved the Cowboys' season. "

2. Blogs & Other Media

Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com: 5th (+8). "If the Cowboys aren't careful, Jerry Jones might not be able to run off Wade Phillips."

Zac Wassink at Associated Content: 6th (+6). "Huge win for the Cowboys, yes, but Dallas doesn't belong in the top five of NFL power rankings this week."

The Big Lead.com: 6th (+4). "Now is not a great time to live in the state of Texas. “How ’bout them -.” Shut up."

ProFootballWeekly: 6th (+4). "Was there any doubt Ware was going to play?"

[update] Fanhouse.com: 7th (+6). "Is the December monkey really off their backs? Winning in the Superdome was a pretty good indication that this isn't the same team that folded up last year. That said, games against the Redskins and Eagles will offer every chance for the simian to hop back aboard. Doing what the Giants did in D.C. would be an awfully good way to shore up their playoff future."

Weii.com: 7th (+5). "DeMarcus Ware’s performance one week after being carted off the field is one for the ages. This is a huge, much-needed December win for the Cowboys that will have them playing with plenty of confidence going forward."

[update] ColdHardFootballFacts.com: 8th (+5). "The Cowboys’ subpar Scoreability (No. 23) is balanced nicely by their excellent Bendability (No. 3)."

3. Statictics & Computer based rankings.

AdvancedNFLstats: 5th (+3). Offense ranked No. 3 (nc), Defense ranked No. 13 (+4). This ranking model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates.

[update] WhatIFsports: 6th (+2). These guys simulate every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and use the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team, with updated rosters and depth charts.

[update] FootballOutsiders: 7th (+2). Offense ranked No. 4 (nc), Defense No. 17 (+4), Special Teams No. 16 (nc). From their Quick Reads section: "Who leads the league in passing DYAR this December? You better believe it -- Romo's 498 narrowly holds the top spot over Philip Rivers' 478. If the original idea of Romo somehow being cursed in December wasn't absurd enough, he put that notion to bed on Saturday night. Next time: Romo takes a team-approved vacation without filling umpteen column inches in the process"

Great Blue North Draft Report: 7th (+3). This site calculates rankings by first round draft selection order based on own and opponent W/L record if the season were to end today.

Covers.com: 7th (+4). "Dallas limped into New Orleans with the December curse planted squarely on its back. So what do the Cowboys do? They defeat the Saints to keep pace in the playoff race."

Jeff Sagarin's NFL rankings: 8h (+6). These are rankings based on W/L record, points differential and schedule strength.

tom slick publishes his Rankings on SBNation's The Falcoholic: 9th (nc). He weighs offensive and defensive points scored/allowed relative to all other teams to determine his rankings.

Here's how the NFC East fared:


	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week
Advancednflstats	5	8	4	4	6	6	16	15
CBSsports	5	9	4	5	13	14	23	27
NFP	5	11	4	5	13	14	24	23
ProFootballTalk	5	13	3	5	13	14	25	22
Whatifsports	6	8	5	5	10	13	27	25
ProFootballWeekly	6	10	5	5	12	12	24	26
The Big Lead	6	10	5	5	13	14	23	22
Assoc. Content	6	12	4	5	10	16	28	24
FootballOutsiders	7	9	1	2	9	13	20	20
Great Blue North	7	10	5	5	11	13	27	27
Covers.com	7	11	4	6	11	14	25	26
SI.com	7	11	5	5	12	14	29	26
Weii.com	7	12	4	5	13	17	27	24
Fanhouse.com	7	13	4	6	13	17	28	25
Yahoosports	8	9	4	5	12	13	25	25
SportingNews	8	11	5	5	13	16	26	26
Foxsports	8	11	5	7	12	12	26	25
CHFF	8	13	5	6	12	16	26	24
Sagarin Ratings	8	14	5	6	12	16	24	26
tom slick	9	9	5	8	17	18	22	17
NFL.com	9	13	4	5	12	14	23	22
ESPN	10	11	5	5	12	14	27	26
Average	7.0	10.8	4.3	5.2	11.7	14.1	24.9	23.8

Trolling Saturday's Open Game Threads on SBNation

One.Cool.Customer — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:03:04 -0000

Here's your chance to relive the Saints game through a few choice comments of our fellow bloggers on our sister SBNation sites. All quotes are taken directly from the open game threads from the SBNation team sites as indicated in front of every comment.

This is not intended to call out any of the posters, it's all in good fun.

Warning: I've edited hardly anything, and in some places, the comments would get an R for language. If you are easily offended, move on.

All others, enjoy.

Pregame
Team	Comments
Saints	Lets Go Homies. Another time to show the world that we are the best team in the NFL!!! WHO DAT!!!
	by SpindianSaints on Dec 19, 2009 7:31 PM EST
Saints	OH NO NO NO NO TO BLACK PANTS
	by N_O_1saintfan on Dec 19, 2009 7:43 PM EST
Saints	Hey, come on now. This black pants thing is getting as overblown as a tourist in the French Quarter!
	by Just 'Nother Day on Dec 19, 2009 7:47 PM EST
Saints	no alcohol in the house. i’m worried. what if we’re behind?
	by arcuate on Dec 19, 2009 8:09 PM EST
Saints	Looks like a lot of Cowboy fans in the crowd. who the fuck sells their tickets to a Cowboys fan?
	by pukenbowl on Dec 19, 2009 8:13 PM EST
Eagles	The Saints are far from invincible. Should be a competitive game, although I see a 10-point Saints win.
	by Bye, Dawk :( on Dec 19, 2009 8:18 PM EST
Saints	Here's question for you Saints fan. Why doesn’t Bush return kickoffs anymore?
	by MarkFive05 on Dec 19, 2009 8:22 PM EST
Saints	he runs backwards and drops the ball. but otherwise he's awesome...
	by arcuate on Dec 19, 2009 8:23 PM EST

1st Quarter
Team	Comments
Saints	Can we not let a team score on its opening drive?
	by Ace Venom on Dec 19, 2009 8:26 PM EST
Saints	Romo 0 for 1 and counting!!!
	by Just 'Nother Day on Dec 19, 2009 8:27 PM EST
(11:33) T.Romo pass deep left to M.Austin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN

Eagles	nice opening drive for the girls
	by oclafcire on Dec 19, 2009 8:29 PM EST
Eagles	shit! damn there a lot of cowboys fans at this game
	by eaglesinmd on Dec 19, 2009 8:29 PM EST
Eagles	New Orleans is an 8 hr drive from Dallas - 3.5 days on horseback
	by oclafcire on Dec 19, 2009 8:33 PM EST
Saints	Damn
	by BigTMill on Dec 19, 2009 8:29 PM EST
Saints	Another three and out!
	by Ace Venom on Dec 19, 2009 8:36 PM EST
Saints	Oh God... Romo is picking us apart like there’s no tomorrow.
	by Ace Venom on Dec 19, 2009 8:41 PM EST
(5:19) M.Barber left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN

Broncos	And suddenly the SuperDome is very quiet...
	by HillisRanUover on Dec 19, 2009 8:46 PM EST
Colts	only a cowboy would shove their own guy into the goalpost
	by Marked Hoosier on Dec 19, 2009 8:46 PM EST
Saints	WHAT ARE WE DOOOOIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
	by BayouLafourcheBoppy on Dec 19, 2009 8:48 PM EST
Colts	Hey another guy from Purdue! The Purdue guy just sacked the Purdue QB!
	by MarkFive05 on Dec 19, 2009 8:51 PM EST
Broncos	Another punt for the saints. Golly. I bet their punter is gased already. He’s not used to this much work with the saints offense.
	by kentuckybronco on Dec 19, 2009 8:52 PM EST
Saints	Still Early
	by BigTMill on Dec 19, 2009 8:54 PM EST
Colts	OMG Romo. what are you doing? Nice way to avoid a sack, then, worst pass ever. Wasnt intercepted for some miracle
	by Piojocuau on Dec 19, 2009 8:57 PM EST
Seahawks	I think Romo has just found his career-changing game.
	by SSreporters on Dec 19, 2009 8:58 PM EST
Saints	we can't get a team off the field
	by rustdog74 on Dec 19, 2009 8:58 PM EST
Colts	Great start by the Cowboys. 14-0 as the 1st quarter ends deep in Saints territory.
	by Cassieper on Dec 19, 2009 9:00 PM EST

2st Quarter
Team	Comments
Saints	Ye of little faith ...Stop worring…Williams and Payton have figured it out by now…..
	by whodatone on Dec 19, 2009 9:02 PM EST
Broncos	wow, Dallas being ballsy out there. Going for it on 4th and 4 with a lead? Nice boldness, Wade Phillips.
	by Joe Medina on Dec 19, 2009 9:04 PM EST
Eagles	anyone wanna explain why i just turned on the TV and dallas just converted on 4th down and are winning 14-0?
	by alcatraz0109 on Dec 19, 2009 9:06 PM EST
Saints	they need to play Al Hirt music the whole game - psych the pokeys
	by WarWolf on Dec 19, 2009 9:17 PM EST
Colts	Please don't pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts
	by KMR24 on Dec 19, 2009 9:20 PM EST
(7:27) G.Hartley 34 yard field goal is GOOD

Saints	okay we are on the board. And the D is here I think we are looking good
	by saintslam on Dec 19, 2009 9:21 PM EST
Broncos	The cowboys really impressed me, just now. 1st and 19 turns into 2nd and 2, then 3rd and 1. Then Barber pounds it up the middle for a first down. I wish we could do that more often.
	by kentuckybronco on Dec 19, 2009 9:27 PM EST
Colts	Damn, Bush injured
	by Piojocuau on Dec 19, 2009 9:35 PM EST
Colts	what else is new?
	by MarkFive05 on Dec 19, 2009 9:35 PM EST
Colts	I know there's another half of football left to play, I know this, but I think Peyton just solidify his record 4th league MVP (knocks on wood).
	by KMR24 on Dec 19, 2009 9:41 PM EST
Eagles	I'm surprised that marion barber hasnt broken his nose with that facemask
	by 700 Level on Dec 19, 2009 9:43 PM EST
49ers	What is going on with the Saints? I know they’ve had some slow starts, but the 49er chances are at stake here!
	by brundylop on Dec 19, 2009 9:47 PM EST
Saints	Barber running with purpose and just smacckkkkkked Vilma, wow. I’ve never seen Vilma take a hit like that.
	by AKAY47 on Dec 19, 2009 9:48 PM EST
Saints	Who Dat!!!? Who Dat say they gon beat them Saints? Cowboys????
	by West-Coast21 on Dec 19, 2009 9:48 PM EST
Colts	The "undefeated Saints" Are looking pretty defeated here in the first half.
	by Picky on Dec 19, 2009 9:49 PM EST
Colts	Romo still trying to hit that guy in the stands. SOMEBODY TELL HIM! He’s NOT on teh ROSTER, TONY!!!
	by Picky on Dec 19, 2009 9:52 PM EST
(:08) N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD

Seahawks	Folk just saved his job!
	by SSreporters on Dec 19, 2009 9:52 PM EST
Saints	Terrible terrible 1st half. Outplayed, outcoached
	by andyp111 on Dec 19, 2009 9:53 PM EST

3rd Quarter
Team	Comments
Saints	Yikes
	by Monkey Poop Battle on Dec 19, 2009 10:15 PM EST
(8:06) M.Barber left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN

Packers	Goodness, the Saints could lose this one. Cowboys just scored again to make it 24-3. Knock on wood.
	by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 19, 2009 10:18 PM EST
Seahawks	wow I saw this coming somewhat, but not like this.
	by Krazyleggs on Dec 19, 2009 10:18 PM EST
Colts	7 minutes scoring drive sounds like a recipe for winning
	by thebossuzzi on Dec 19, 2009 10:19 PM EST
Colts	For some reason I feel the Saints are going to win this game...
	by Justin Pugh on Dec 19, 2009 10:20 PM EST
Seahawks	Jerry Jones, what do you want for Tashard Choice?
	by aerozeppelin on Dec 19, 2009 10:21 PM EST
Saints	Big comeback comming up
	by saintslam on Dec 19, 2009 10:21 PM EST
Seahawks	And F#$K, I HATE the Cowboys.
	by Misfit74 on Dec 19, 2009 10:27 PM EST
Seahawks	Wade just saved his job and Romo is officially elite. I really got to admit he's been great tonight.
	by SSreporters on Dec 19, 2009 10:27 PM EST
Eagles	the saints are throwing this game. Ive never seen anything like this
	by 700 Level on Dec 19, 2009 10:27 PM EST
Saints	3rd down conversion rate: 0%
	by arcuate on Dec 19, 2009 10:27 PM EST
Eagles	Fuckin Saints, thanks for deciding you want to lose your first game against the worst team possible.
	by southjersey89 on Dec 19, 2009 10:28 PM EST
Saints	I hate this so much, I will be getting ragged on all next week
	by rustdog74 on Dec 19, 2009 10:28 PM EST
Colts	ALL TALK OF DREW BREES AS MVP SHOULD STOP TONIGHT...
	by Justin Pugh on Dec 19, 2009 10:32 PM EST
Seahawks	I hate Miles Austin because he makes everything look simple.
	by Krazyleggs on Dec 19, 2009 10:33 PM EST
Eagles	fucking miles austin im going to lose my fantasy postseason because of that bitch
	by fhqwagads on Dec 19, 2009 10:33 PM EST
Saints	friggin romo
	by saintslam on Dec 19, 2009 10:34 PM EST
49ers	I guess god just doesn't want the niners to go to the playoffs comon saints help us out here.
	by Dub4lif3 on Dec 19, 2009 10:38 PM EST
Saints	But what happens if we end up facing these guys in the playoffs?
	by AKAY47 on Dec 19, 2009 10:39 PM EST

4th Quarter
Team	Comments
(12:41) M.Bell left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN

Colts	The Cowboys' prevent defense isn't preventing anything.
	by Cassieper on Dec 19, 2009 10:45 PM EST
Saints	I love all Y'all TDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
	by BayouLafourcheBoppy on Dec 19, 2009 10:46 PM EST
Eagles	hmmmm......
	by FreeBradshaw on Dec 19, 2009 10:52 PM EST
Saints	The SAINTS are coming!
	by Dan Kelly on Dec 19, 2009 10:57 PM EST
Eagles	why is Matt Millen not shoveling snow?
	by FreeBradshaw on Dec 19, 2009 11:00 PM EST
(8:06) D.Brees pass short right to L.Moore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN

Seahawks	WWWWWWWWWWWHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
	by Misfit74 on Dec 19, 2009 11:02 PM EST
Eagles	Is that December choke that I taste?
	by southjersey89 on Dec 19, 2009 11:02 PM EST
Eagles	Wow. If the Cowboys lose this game, wow, just wow.
	by bdawk4ever on Dec 19, 2009 11:02 PM EST
Saints	TD ! 7 pt game
	by WarWolf on Dec 19, 2009 11:03 PM EST
Colts	Are the Cowboys imploding? Wade can’t coach his way out of a paper bag.
	by Marked Hoosier on Dec 19, 2009 11:04 PM EST
Saints	I WANT TO SEE WADE PHILIPS FACE WHEN HE GETS HIS PINK SLIP
	by N_O_1saintfan on Dec 19, 2009 11:04 PM EST
Packers	If the Saints pull that off, the Cowgirls’ December swoon talk will reach orgasm
	by A-Rodge12 on Dec 19, 2009 11:08 PM EST
Colts	Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts Please don’t pull a Colts
	by KMR24 on Dec 19, 2009 11:09 PM EST
Colts	Austin playing well. He dropped a few but I already trust him more than Roy Williams
	by Gwen on Dec 19, 2009 11:09 PM EST
49ers	i hate miles austin so much
	by Dub4lif3 on Dec 19, 2009 11:09 PM EST
Eagles	Austin is the real deal. I hate to admit it…but why can’t the Saints defend him?
	by jalarsen1 on Dec 19, 2009 11:09 PM EST
Saints	tthat was ugly
	by Brazil meets LA on Dec 19, 2009 11:09 PM EST
Eagles	The only thing I hate about a Cowboys win here are the fans who are going to act like they just won 15 Superbowls in a row.
	by jalarsen1 on Dec 19, 2009 11:12 PM EST
Saints	why can't romo falter in this game
	by rustdog74 on Dec 19, 2009 11:13 PM EST
Colts	Thank you for that clip, NFLN. That makes me feel much better about Folk.
	by Cassieper on Dec 19, 2009 11:16 PM EST
Saints	Holy crap! Did you see those practice kicks!!! Oh my goodness. They’re garbage.
	by Dan Kelly on Dec 19, 2009 11:16 PM EST
49ers	Cowboys Kicker is pretty bad here’s to a miss!
	by brundylop on Dec 19, 2009 11:16 PM EST
(2:19) N.Folk 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright

49ers	YES!!!
	by brundylop on Dec 19, 2009 11:17 PM EST
Eagles	This is awesome. Choke it away Boys!
	by slackerjoe on Dec 19, 2009 11:17 PM EST
Saints	DOINK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
	by Cajun in CA on Dec 19, 2009 11:17 PM EST
Eagles	COME ON. Do that thing you do Dallas. Keep finding a way to loose.
	by EaglesPhan on Dec 19, 2009 11:20 PM EST
Broncos	Welcome to the un-employment line mr. Folk
	by HillisRanUover on Dec 19, 2009 11:21 PM EST
Packers	Haha oh my.. Haha I had a funny feeling Folk was going to miss that kick after they showed him hooking 30 yards in warm-ups, and sure enough he clanked it off the upright. What is it with kickers this year?
	by packallday555 on Dec 19, 2009 11:21 PM EST

10 Minutes after the final whistle
Team	Comments
Colts	PEYTON IS THE MVP!!!!!!!!!!! THE COLTS ARE THE NFL’S LONE UNBEATEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
	by Cassieper on Dec 19, 2009 11:29 PM EST
Eagles	WOW
	by Realtalk32 on Dec 19, 2009 11:29 PM EST
Saints	oh no
	by saintslam on Dec 19, 2009 11:29 PM EST
Saints	booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
	by WarWolf on Dec 19, 2009 11:29 PM EST
Saints	DAMN
	by BigTMill on Dec 19, 2009 11:29 PM EST
Broncos	Wow.
	by Tempestuous Binary on Dec 19, 2009 11:30 PM EST
Colts	holy shit. Did that just happen?
	by DClark#44 on Dec 19, 2009 11:30 PM EST
Vikings	SAINTS LOSE!!! Thank you Cowboys
	by ArizonaVikingsFan on Dec 19, 2009 11:30 PM EST
Eagles	Dammit.
	by Bye, Dawk :( on Dec 19, 2009 11:30 PM EST
Eagles	demarcus is too good
	by eagleswin on Dec 19, 2009 11:30 PM EST
Vikings	Dallas Wins!!!! Dallas Wins!!!! Dallas Wins!!!!
	VikesFaninNM on Dec 19, 2009 11:31 PM EST
Seahawks	How powerful is the NFC East.
	by John Morgan on Dec 19, 2009 11:31 PM EST
Saints	think i am calling out sick tomorrow
	by N_O_1saintfan on Dec 19, 2009 11:33 PM EST
Eagles	Now nobody is going to shut up about the Cowboys...
	by Imp on Dec 19, 2009 11:34 PM EST
Saints	Respect for the Cowboys. They played an outstanding game. Your kicker is a disaster, but that team was solid from the opening kickoff and wanted it more.
	by Malsby on Dec 19, 2009 11:37 PM EST

BTB is the No. 4 ranked NFL Sports Blog in the country

One.Cool.Customer — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:35:59 -0000

BTB is the No. 4 ranked NFL Sports Blog in the country

... and 8 of the top 10 are SBNation blogs. More data here.

Hats off to Grizz, Raf and everyone else.

Seven Statistical Nuggets (featuring Twins!)

One.Cool.Customer — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:11:07 -0000

Random statistical thoughts and musings as I take time out from building a shrine to Antonio Ramiro Romo in my back yard.

1. Tony Romo rocks. Hard.

Even the most ardent critics will agree that Romo's performance over the last 4 games has been outstanding. 111.9 Passer rating, 8 TDs, 0 INTs. But it's not like he hasn't strung together 4 good games before (except in December, of course). Luke. has a nice fanpost in which he digs into the numbers a little more.

What's really amazing to me though, is that he has now gone 4 successive games without an interception. Only one QB in the NFL holds an active streak of successive no-interception quarters (17) that's longer than Romo's (16) and that is, as improbable as that may sound, Brady Quinn. Nevertheless, 4 successive INT-free games is not something we've seen often in our franchise history.

Troy Aikman did it twice, in 1995 (5 succesive INT-free games) and 1993 (6). Roger Staubach once in 1977 (5), Craig Morton twice, in 1970 (4) and 1969 (4) and Don Meredith in 1966 (4). Lofty company indeed.

For those of you who believe in portentous omens, note that we won the division in each one of those years, made the Superbowl four times and won it 3 times.

Oh, and by the way, Romo is perfect in December against undefeated teams (hat tip to NerdVernacular), and rumor has it that he's been asked to join Free Reign, because apparently they're not rocking hard enough...

2. Shotgun Blues.

A lot of the criticism brought against Garrett and his alleged predictable playcalling centers around his apparent preference for the shotgun, and the numbers seem to bear it out.

Playcalling 2009 (excl. kneels & spikes)

	2009 (through week 15)
	Shotgun		Under Center
	Total	Percent	Total	Percent
Total Plays	386	44.3	485	55.7
Pass Plays	321	83.2	159	32.8
Sacks	17	4.4	14	2.9

With an 83% pass ratio when lined up in the shotgun, that is a pretty good indicator for opposing defenses what's about to happen. Similarly, when we're lined up under center, we run the ball 67% of the time. I had initially assumed that lining up in the shotgun had something to do with protecting Romo better, but he's actually being sacked more in the shotgun formation than when lined up under center.

Against the Saints, the Cowboys passed a season-high 16 times while lined up under center, a number equaled only in the Carolina game. In Garrett's playbook, lining up under center apparently is something you use when you're either ahead or playing it methodically, while the shotgun seems to be used more when we're behind and in desperation mode. This may not always be the wisest thing to do, as the following nugget will illustrate.

3. "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center"

Playcalling is obviously highly situational, and something that no amount of stats can adequately reflect. But I found it interesting to look at the Shotgun/Under Center splits by downs and pass vs. run.

Passing Splits "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center", through week 15, 2009

Formation	Down	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
Under Center	1	65	95	945	68%	9.9	2	2	98.8
	2	37	57	422	65%	7.4	4	- -	110.4
	3	3	7	28	43%	4.0	1	- -	102.1
Shotgun	1	59	86	720	69%	8.4	4	1	104.8
	2	66	109	883	61%	8.1	10	1	113.1
	3	65	120	815	54%	6.8	2	2	74.1

Looking at these numbers, there is no reason why we shouldn't pass more from under center. In fact, the best passing situation, with an astonishing 9.9 YPA is on first down from under center (ignore the passer rating, it is heavily skewed by TD/INT). Also, the overall completion rate from under center is 66%, but 'only' 60% from the shotgun, and our passing game is averaging one whole yard per attempt more (8.8) from under center than from the shotgun (7.8). And, last but not least, passing more from under center would add an extra element of surprise to our offense more often.

A key reason for why our numbers look better from under center is the stronger involvement of the TEs and RBs in our passing game.

Passing Splits by receiver, "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center", through week 15, 2009

Formation	Receiver	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
Under Center	WR	41	72	682	57%	9.5	6	1	111.0
	TE	43	58	458	74%	7.9	1	1	95.3
	RB	21	28	232	75%	8.3	- -	- -	99.1
Shotgun	WR	106	192	1,721	55%	9.0	16	3	106.7
	TE	59	86	608	69%	7.1	- -	2	79.0
	RB	29	40	175	73%	4.4	- -	- -	80.7

Under Center, RBs and TEs are targeted on 54% of all passes (vs. only 40% out of the shotgun). And these guys are repaying that confidence nicely, with very high completion percentages and a YPA that is not too far behind that of Miles and Company. Oh, and passing more to the TEs and RBs would add an extra element of surprise to our offense more often.

And now for our running game. Excluding kneels and sacks, the Cowboys have run the ball 48 times out of 369 times they've lined up in the shotgun. That is a ridiculously low 13%. Is that because the formation is inherently unsuited for the run? Or because we're not getting the results we want? Here are the numbers:

Rushing stats by down and formation, through week 15, 2009

Formation	Down	Att	YDS	YPA
Under Center	1	189	1,050	5.6
	2	98	416	4.2
	3	23	110	4.8
Shotgun	1	17	75	4.4
	2	15	134	8.9
	3	16	74	4.6

Lo and behold, our running game is actually generating better numbers under the shotgun. The average rushing YPA under shotgun is 5.9, while 'only' 5.1 under center. Obviously the runs from the shotgun are a small base, but with the type of running attack we have, mixing in a little more runs from the shotgun formation might not be the worst strategy. And by the way, running a little bit more out of the shotgun would add an extra element of surprise to our offense more often.

(Hat tip to Bob Sturm for pointing me in the direction of this nugget)

4. TD Drive Killers

For those of you who think about Roy Williams when you hear 'drive killer', think happy thoughts, as this is not about RW.

So far, we have had 35 offensive touchdown drives. A closer look at those drives reveals some startling facts. Almost half (14) of our TD drives did not have a single 3rd down in the whole drive. Of the 236 plays on the 35 TD drives, only 30 were 3rd down plays. Needless to say, we converted all of them :-)

Also, out of those 35 TD drives, only once (!!!) did we score a TD when Tony Romo had been sacked during the drive. To round out the fearsome threesome, 25 of our TD drives did not have a single penalty against us. Here's how the numbers break down.

TD drives and the fearsome threesome through week 15, 2009

	3rd downs	Penalties	Sacks
none	14	25	34
1	12	7	1
2	9	3	- -

Surprisingly, we did have 9 TD drives where we converted on 3rd down twice during the drive. Of note, we had two successful TD drives against the Saint with two 3rd down conversions each. That is the first time this season that we've had two such drives in the same game.

5. TWINS!

The Texans are happy that at least one team from Texas managed to knock off an undefeated team.

6. Who needs 3rd down conversions when you convert on 2nd down?

With our 8 for 15 3rd down conversions against the Saints, our season average moves up to 39.8% which ranks us a middling 15th in the NFL. Somewhat surprisingly, we rank 6th (before the games today) in first downs per game with 20.9. So what gives?

DavidH22 has an excellent post in which he shows that in the last 22 second and 5+ situations (prior to the NO game) "the team has run the ball on those second downs a grand total of ZERO times. That's right...0-22." I jokingly said that that might be because Garrett is so afraid of third down situations, he’s going for conversions on second down. With a little urging from Mac_24, I went and looked up the numbers.

This season, The Cowboys have converted 36.0% of their 2nd downs into 1st downs. This is not a stat you can find anywhere except by going play by play through the playbooks, so I don't know how this compares to other teams, but I think this number is astonishingly high. If there was ever a stat that defined a quick strike offense, this is probably it.

7. Odd Man Out

In the last 5 games, Patrick Clayton was targeted just 9 times. Over the first 9 games, he was targeted 49 times. That is a significant drop. Who's picking up the slack?

Passing Target Distribution through week 15, 2009

	WRs	TEs	RBs
week 11-15	18.4	11.4	5.4
week 1-10	18.9	9.6	4.9

Over the last 5 weeks, Romo has been targeting the TEs and RBs more during the first 9 weeks, while the numbers for the WRs have remained pretty constant. Spreading the ball around is always a good, so I can't say I feel too sorry for Crayton. And I guess if Crayton continues to find the endzone when needed, that's just fine with me.

NFL Power Rankings - Week 15 - Final Edition

One.Cool.Customer — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 12:59:29 -0000

Here's the final edition of our weekly power ranking roundup heading into week 15.

1. Major Media Networks & Affiliates

Michael Silver at Yahoo Sports: 9th (nc). "Will this defunct Showtime series be the next 3D offering on the Cowboys Stadium video boards – and if they show clips before the home team’s field goal attempts, how loudly will fans boo?"

Pete Prisco at CBSSports.com: 9th (-2). "They head to New Orleans, trying to snap a two-game skid. Good luck against that team in that building."

ESPN: 11th (-1). "Any home-field advantage the Cowboys might have in their new palace disappears in December. (Clayton)"

[update] Fox Sports: 11th (-1). "Speaking of movies, the Cowboys are living out their annual December version of Groundhog Day yet again. You know, the one where the NFC East-leading Cowboys enter the month feeling high and mighty. Then, they tank in the final four weeks in huge games, and we watch dumbfounded Wade Phillips and solemn Tony Romo shrivel in the spotlight of the postgame pressers. Best of luck against the Saints without DeMarcus Ware!"

SportingNews.com: 11th (-2). "OLB DeMarcus Ware escaped serious injury, but his team faces serious December issues."

NationalFootballPost.com: 11th (-3). "December has officially arrived in Dallas, and we are still wondering about the fourth- down call on the goal line."

[update] Don Banks' Power Rankings: 11th (-3). "I checked with the NFL office and the NFC does indeed have to qualify six teams for the playoffs. It's in the rule book. But who's really playoff-worthy in that No. 6 slot? Seriously. Do the math. One of the following teams has to make the playoffs: Dallas, the Giants, Atlanta or San Francisco. Yeesh. The Giants and Falcons have both lost six out of eight, and yet I like their chances to sneak in better than those of the reeling Cowboys. That speaks to the desperation in Dallas."

Peter King in MMQB: 10th (-2). "I know it's not fashionable to say anything nice about the Cowboys in December, but I don't believe their season's over yet. Sorry."

NFL.com's Brain Trust of Experts: 13th (-2).

2. Blogs & Other Media

The Big Lead.com: 10th (nc). "Two straight losses. The beginning of their annual December swoon? Surely you’ve heard something about it, no?"

ProFootballWeekly: 10th (-4). "The four goal-line runs could come back to haunt them."

Weii.com: 12th (-2). "The potential loss of DeMarcus Ware, the Cowboys’ best pass-rusher, would make it even more difficult for Dallas to beat the Saints next week. It’s a bad time for Ware to get hurt as the team continues to struggle in December."

Zac Wassink at Associated Content: 12th (-2). "NFC East is nothing special outside of Philadelphia and it's December. Just how low can Dallas fall in these NFL power rankings?"

Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com: 13th (-1). "The good news is that, at this rate, the Cowboys won't get a chance to lose another playoff game."

[update] ColdHardFootballFacts.com: 13th (-2). "Can we officially put a moratorium on “Dallas is bad in December” stats, stories and sidebars? We get it. Not good in December. Moving on. We suggest the national media universally adopt our "Curse of Flutie" explanation."

Fanhouse.com: 13th (-3). "Dallas' annual December collapse is in full swing after back-to-back losses, and a Saturday night trip to New Orleans doesn't bode well for righting the ship. That said, the NFC is such a mess that Dallas could lose out and still get in the playoffs at 8-8. Just one win in the final three weeks might get the job done."

3. Statictics & Computer based rankings.

AdvancedNFLstats: 8th (nc). Offense ranked No. 3 (nc), Defense ranked No. 17 (+5). This ranking model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates.

WhatIFsports: 8th (-1). These guys simulate every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and use the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team, with updated rosters and depth charts.

FootballOutsiders: 9th (nc). Offense ranked No. 4 (nc), Defense No. 21 (-2), Special Teams No. 16 (-2).

tom slick publishes his Rankings on SBNation's The Falcoholic: 9th (-1). He weighs offensive and defensive points scored/allowed relative to all other teams to determine his rankings.

Great Blue North Draft Report: 10th (-3). This site calculates rankings by first round draft selection order based on own and opponent W/L record if the season were to end today.

Covers.com: 11th (-1). "Is the Cowboys December swoon really taking place again? They are at New Orleans, at Washington and hosting the Eagles to end the year and that is not a good closing schedule."

Jeff Sagarin's NFL rankings: 14th (-3). These are rankings based on W/L record, points differential and schedule strength.

Here's how the NFC East and our next opponent, the Saints, fared:


	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week
Whatifsports	8	7	5	10	13	12	25	27	1
Advancednflstats	8	8	4	4	6	7	15	16	1
CBSsports	9	7	5	6	14	12	27	27	2
tom slick	9	8	8	6	18	17	17	19	7
Yahoosports	9	9	5	8	13	12	25	27	1
FootballOutsiders	9	9	2	2	13	12	20	20	1
ProFootballWeekly	10	6	5	8	12	12	26	27	1
Great Blue North	10	7	5	8	13	11	27	28	2
The Big Lead	10	10	5	8	14	12	22	24	1
NFP	11	8	5	7	14	13	23	25	1
SI.com	11	8	5	7	14	12	26	27	1
SportingNews	11	9	5	10	16	12	26	28	1
Foxsports	11	10	7	11	12	12	25	26	1
Covers.com	11	10	6	7	14	12	26	26	1
ESPN	11	10	5	8	14	12	26	27	1
Assoc. Content	12	10	5	7	16	12	24	28	2
Weii.com	12	10	5	7	17	9	24	23	1
Fanhouse.com	13	10	6	9	17	13	25	26	2
CHFF	13	11	6	7	16	13	24	25	1
NFL.com	13	11	5	7	14	12	22	25	1
ProFootballTalk	13	12	5	8	14	10	22	27	1
Sagarin Ratings	14	11	6	9	16	12	26	27	2
Average	10.8	9.1	5.2	7.5	14.1	11.9	23.8	25.2	1.5

For a summary of all NFL teams using some of the same rankings, go to NFLpowerranks.com

Ware could play vs. Saints, Phillips says

One.Cool.Customer — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:38:46 -0000

Ware could play vs. Saints, Phillips says

Bennett apparently ruled out, Hamlin might return

Seven Statistical Nuggets To Keep Hope Alive

One.Cool.Customer — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:47:04 -0000

Random statistical thoughts and musings as I pop those antidepressants at an alarming rate.

On a more personal note, while I slowly succumb to my annual December depression, I find these posts harder and harder to write as our playoff chances slowly dwindle. Let me know how you feel about these posts in the poll below.

1. History in the making.

Never in the Superbowl Era have there been more 300+ yards passers in a season than this year (includes adjustments for number of teams and strike shortened seasons), and the season isn't even over yet. But what's even more astounding this year, is that the winning percentage in 300+ passing yard games is an unprecedented .671. Never in the Superbowl Era has that percentage been higher, in fact 300+ passing games in the past were largely a hit and miss affair: seldom has the winning percentage strayed far from the .500 mark.

300+ passing yards games per NFL regular season, Superbowl Era, min. 26 teams

	70-77	78-93	94-01	02-07	2008	2009
300+ passing games/season	7.5	51.4	62.6	71.7	76	85
No. of teams/season	26 -28	28	30-31	32	32	32
300+ games in % of total games/season	6%	24%	26%	28%	30%	41%
Win percentage	.500	.482	.531	.509	.618	.671

The period in NFL history through 1977 is occasionally referred to as the Dead Ball Era, as it was ruled by low scores and stifling defensive play. Many of the most famous defenses of modern NFL history – Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain, our very own Doomsday Defense, Minnesota's Purple People Eaters and the Rams' Fearsome Foursome – all played during that time.

In 1978 the NFL instituted sweeping rule changes to increase the pace of scoring which resulted in significantly higher offensive statistics, particularly in the passing game. Some examples: the league made it illegal for defenders to contact receivers more than five yards off the line, penalties for intentional grounding were reduced, offensive linemen were allowed to open their hands and extend their arms while pass-blocking (read: hold), a seventh official was added to monitor pass interference downfield, and referees were instructed to stop the play when a QB was in the grasp of an opponent.

More recent rule changes have put more emphasis on protecting the quarterback, but also calling contact down the field on defensive backs, making the passing game easier than ever before.

League Leaders 300+ passing games by QB through week 14, 2009

	P. Manning	Brees	Brady	Schaub	Romo	Rodgers	Roethlisberger	Favre	Rivers
# of 300+ games	8	7	7	7	6	4	4	4	4
W-L	8-0	7-0	5-2	3-4	5-1	3-1	3-1	3-1	3-1

2. The resurrection of Roy Williams. Too little, too late?

Roy Williams appears to be back from his extended sabbatical. Since the Philly game in week 8 (exactly 1 year after his first game for the Cowboys), he has scored 4 TDs and improved his completion rate to 53.7%.

Roy Williams Receiver Ratings 2009

	Cmp	Targets	Yds	Cmp%	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
Games 1-7	14	39	249	35.9%	6.4	2	0	75.7
Games 8-13	22	41	329	53.7%	8.0	4	0	112.8

3. When even stats don't make sense anymore.

Regular readers of this series know that Passer Rating Differential (Romo's rating minus Opposing QB's rating) was a highly accurate predictor of game outcomes.

Since 2007, with Romo under center, the PRD was accurate 37 times out of 39. The only two games where PRD did not accurately reflect the game outcome were the loss to Arizona in OT in 08 (Romo: 116.2, Warner: 104.3) and the win against Buffalo in 07 in a 5-Romo-interceptions game. (Romo: 39.5, Edwards 74.1). Over the last 4 games, the PRD predictor is 1-3. Looking at the NYG and SD games, one thing is for sure: The Cowboys have lost two in a row, and the passing game is the least of the team's worries right now.

Dallas Cowboys Passer Rating Differential, 2009

	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC	ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD
PR Differential	+56.0	-84.5	+19.6	-50.4	+22.9	+75.5	+15.3	+27.3	-13.1	-4.0	+42.9	+23.2	+22.1
Result	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	L	L

4. Bombs Away!

7 of Miles Austin's 9 touchdowns this season have come on receptions of more than 20 yards, and he shares the league lead in this stat with Desean Jackson. It is no coincidence then, that Dallas ranks as one of the top teams when it comes to scoring TD's from outside the Red Zone. Gunnery Sergeant Romo: Bombs Away!

20+yards offensive TDs, 2009

Team	20+TDs	% of total offensive TDs	Wide Receivers	Running Backs
Eagles	15	45%	Jackson (7), Maclin (3), Celek (1), Weaver (1)	Jackson (1), McCoy (1), Weaver (1)
Saints	14	28%	Meachem (6), Colston (3), Henderson (2), Bush (1)	Thomas (2)
Giants	13	31%	Nicks (5), Manningham (3), Smith (2), Hixon (1), Boss (1), Jacobs (1)	- -
Cowboys	12	40%	Austin (7), Crayton (1), Hurd (1), Williams (1)	Choice (1), Jones (1)
Patriots	12	33%	Moss (5), Aiken (2), Baker (1), Faulk (1), Watson (1), Welker (1)	Maroney (1)
Colts	12	31%	Wayne (4), Garcon (3), Clark (2), Collie (2)	Simpson (2)
Packers	12	33%	Driver (3), Jones (3), Jennings (2), Finley (1), Havner (1), Nelson (1)	Grant (1)

The Philly and Dallas 'quick-hit' offenses rely heavily on the long strike. In terms of percentage of all offensive TD's, they rank No. 2 and No. 3 in the NFL, behind only the Buffalo Bills, whose offense might better be described as a 'quick-hit-and-miss' offense, scoring 9 of a miserly 19 offensive TDs from beyond the 20.

Special mention needs to go to Chris Johnson from the Titans, who has seven (!!!) 20+ rushing TDs this year, as well as two 20+ yard receiving TDs. Only once in the Superbowl Era has a player scored more 20+ rushing TDs in one season, Denver's Terrell Davis in 1998 with 10.

***

Abigail Klein, ever the optimist, is excited that we're still in the playoff hunt

***

5. Target Distribution

Romo is completing only 54.3% of his passes to the top three wide receivers (Austin, Williams and Crayton), but is averaging a robust 9.0 yards per attempt to those receivers. Romo has a 108.2 passer rating throwing to the top three wide receivers this season, despite RW's shaky start.

Surprisingly, Romo only has a 87.6 passer rating when targeting Jason Witten, largely because 3 passes to Witten were picked. Romo does complete 74.8% of his passes to Witten, which is the third highest completion percentage (behind Jones and Barber) to any of Romo’s targets that have more than 10 receptions. Romo’s passer rating to TE's drops to 83.9 when Bennett and Phillips are thrown into the mix.

Romo may want to target his running backs more, as he has a 90.7 passer rating throwing the ball to them, and perhaps more importantly, he completes 75.4% of his passes to the running backs while averageing 6.2 yards per pass attempt. (Hat tip to ScarletO for the commentary, I just updated the numbers).

Here's how the Cowboys receivers stack up so far this season.

Receiver Ratings through week 14, 2009 (min. 10 Cmp)

	Cmp	Targets	Yds	Cmp%	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
Austin	58	93	999	62.4%	10.7	10	2	125.7
Crayton	31	57	482	54.4%	8.5	4	1	98.7
Jones	11	13	79	84.6%	6.1	0	0	97.9
Williams	36	80	578	45.0%	7.2	6	0	94.7
Barber	20	26	166	76.9%	6.4	0	0	92.8
Witten	77	103	793	74.8%	7.7	1	3	87.6
Choice	15	22	132	68.2%	6.0	0	0	83.9
Bennett	15	27	159	55.6%	5.9	0	0	72.9

6. The lost art of tackling?

What a difference a few missed tackles can make. Think about the missed tackles on Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw and Domenik Hixon in the Giants game and how they hurt us. In fact, if you review the game highlights of the Giants game, you'll see that the Dallas Defense appears to have missed tackles on all four touchdowns. Conversely, think about the missed tackles on Austin over the season, and how they've helped us.

Make contact, wrap up your opponent (use of arms is encouraged), take him down. How hard can that be? Our secondary, particularly Terrence Newman, has been getting some flak here and elsewhere for going for the highlight reel takedown or interception, only to watch the ball carrier spin out of the tackle and carry on. Many a troll has derided our team for not tackling in pre-season.

So what do the stats say? Missed tackles are not an official NFL statistic but Pro Football Focus has been tracking them for two seasons. Here's how our Secondary stacks up in missed tackles:

Missed tackles by CB's and Safeties through week 13, 2009

	Top 4				NFC EAST				Bottom 4
Team	CHI	CIN	GB	MIA	NYG	DAL	WAS	PHI	SD	JAC	TB	DET
Missed Tackles	21	21	21	22	22	28	34	36	41	43	45	52
Rank	T1	T1	T1	T4	T4	12	25	27	29	30	31	32

Missed tackles are spread fairly evenly across our secondary. Sensabaugh (6), Jenkins (6), Scandrick (5), Ball (4) and Newman (4), Hamlin (2) and Watkins (1) have all missed their share of tackles, but overall, we're not that far off some of the leading teams in the league.

League leader in missed tackles? Philly's very own Asante Samuel with 15. To quote Bye Dawk : "I hate… H-A-T-E… HATE Asante’s lack of tackling ability". I kinda like it though ...

7. Ouch!

Romo has been sacked more often this year than in any previous season and is also on track to get hit more than ever before. This cannot be good. quincyyyyy, draft us some OL-men!

Quarterback Sacks and Hits allowed on Tony Romo, 2006-2009

	2006	2007	2008	2009
Games- ATT	11 - 337	16 - 520	13 - 450	13 - 414
Sacks	21	24	20	28
QB Hits	34	40	69	56
Sacks & Hits in % ATT	16.3%	12.3%	19.8%	18.9%

______

Sources: 1. Pro Football Reference 2,3,5,7. NFL Gamebooks 4. Pro Football Reference 6. Pro Football Focus

Poll

Would you like to continue with these posts through the remaining regular season?

NFL Power Rankings - Week 14 - Final Edition

One.Cool.Customer — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:30:26 -0000

Here's the final edition of our weekly power ranking roundup heading into week 14.

1. Major Media Networks & Affiliates

Pete Prisco at CBSSports.com: 7th (-3). "Was that loss to the Giants the beginning of the Dallas December swoon? We'll know it is if the Cowboys lose to San Diego on Sunday."

[update] Don Banks' Power Rankings: 8th (nc). "Can the Cowboys lose at home to the Chargers and still make the playoffs? I suppose it's possible, but with the three games remaining after this one -- at New Orleans, at Washington, home against Philadelphia -- I don't like their chances unless they pick up win No. 9 this week. Put up or shut up time in Dallas. Lose this one and the December swoon stuff will again take on a life of its own."

Peter King in MMQB: 8th (nc). "I don't know what to do with the Cowboys. Should they be eight? Ten? Fifteen? I wrote the other day Dallas hasn't had a winning December in 13 years, and after the loss to the Giants, it'll be incredible if it has one this fall. Next three December games: San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington."

PK also goes on record with the following: "I really like Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison, but I disagree with their feeling that Tony Romo can't take a day off to attend a benefit in Las Vegas on a long weekend after a resounding win. One day. And it was not a day, from all accounts, with any debauchery involved. Dungy and Harrison feel it's a bad example to set for the other players, that the leader of the team is jetting off to Vegas on a day off, especially when the team has such a bad record in recent Decembers. I just don't buy it. He was back in the building for treatment Saturday morning after 24 hours in Vegas." Hat tip to aussie_cowboy for the fanshot.

NationalFootballPost.com: 8th (-1). "Tony Romo wasn’t the reason that the Cowboys lost—but their special teams sure didn’t help in the Meadowlands."

Michael Silver at Yahoo Sports: 9th (-1). "When Flozell Adams is in Tucson, can we expect to see him at this watering hole?"

SportingNews.com: 9th (-3). "Another devastating December could be looming if they lose at home to San Diego on Sunday."

Fox Sports: 10th (nc). "Until they win a game of importance in December or January this millennium, it's foolish to consider the Cowboys a true threat — especially as "them Cowboys" have the toughest remaining schedule of any true playoff contenders in the league — vs. SD (9-3), @ NO (12-0), @ WSH (3-9), vs. PHI (8-4) = 32-16 (.667)."

ESPN: 10th (-3). "The D in Dallas also stands for Defeats in December. (Clayton)". And ESPN also stands for Every Single Pun: Not-funny.

NFL.com's Brain Trust of Experts: 11th (-4). Our favorite Douche-meister Jason La Confora has the Cowboys at 16. All other panelists are at 10-12.

2. Blogs & Other Media

ProFootballWeekly: 6th (nc). "They just aren't the same when they can't run the ball."

[update] The Big Lead.com: 10th (-2). "If it’s December, it means a once-promising Cowboys season is about to unravel. But come on, let’s not pretend it’s because the QB spent a day playing cards. "

Weii.com: 10th (-2). "The Cowboys get criticized every year in December, and if they want to prove their doubters wrong, this would be the season to do it. They’ll face the Chargers — who get better in December — and the Saints, who haven’t lost a game all year."

Fanhouse.com: 10th (-4). "It's funny how reputations get built. The Cowboys lose to the Giants last Sunday and it goes into the "Tony Romo can't win in December column." The guy threw for 392 yards and three touchdowns -- two of them to Roy Williams, for heaven's sake -- and he can't win in December. Where's the Marion Barber can't hold onto the ball or Nick Folk can't make a kick file?"

Zac Wassink at Associated Content: 10th (-5). "It's December, Cowboys fans. Uh oh."

[update] ColdHardFootballFacts.com:11th (-3). "We’re not sure why any of Dallas’ problems are Tony Romo’s fault; over his last 10 games he’s thrown 16 TDs with just four interceptions, despite throwing an average of 35.8 passes per game."

Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com: 12th (-5). "The coach who can't win in December goes up against the coach who can't win in September."

3. Statictics & Computer based rankings.

WhatIFsports: 7th (+1). These guys simulate every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and use the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team, with updated rosters and depth charts.

Great Blue North Draft Report: 7th (-3). This site calculates rankings by first round draft selection order based on own and opponent W/L record if the season were to end today.

tom slick publishes his Rankings on SBNation's The Falcoholic: 8th (-1). He weighs offensive and defensive points scored/allowed relative to all other teams to determine his rankings.

FootballOutsiders: 9th (-1). Offense ranked No. 4 (nc), Defense No. 19 (-1), Special Teams No. 14 (-6).

AdvancedNFLstats: 9th (-2). Offense ranked No. 3 (-1), Defense ranked No. 22 (-1). This ranking model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates.

[update] Covers.com: 10th (-3). "Dallas continued its December woes with a loss in New York. The Cowboys lead shrunk to one game with the Chargers up next followed by a game at New Orleans."

Jeff Sagarin's NFL rankings: 11th (-2). These are rankings based on W/L record, points differential and schedule strength.

Here's how the NFC East and our next opponent, the Chargers, fared:


	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week
ProFootballWeekly	6	6	8	8	12	14	27	26	4
Great Blue North	7	4	8	9	11	12	28	28	4
CBSsports	7	4	6	8	12	13	27	27	5
Whatifsports	7	8	10	20	12	14	27	26	4
NFP	8	7	7	9	13	15	25	23	3
tom slick	8	7	6	10	17	18	19	19	7
SI.com	8	8	7	9	12	16	27	24	4
SportingNews	9	6	10	8	12	14	28	26	3
Advancednflstats	9	7	4	5	7	10	16	17	3
Yahoosports	9	8	8	9	12	16	27	25	4
FootballOutsiders	9	8	2	4	12	14	20	21	13
Assoc. Content	10	5	7	9	12	16	28	26	4
Fanhouse.com	10	6	9	10	13	16	26	29	3
ESPN	10	7	8	9	12	15	27	26	4
Covers.com	10	7	7	12	12	14	26	26	4
The Big Lead	10	6	8	9	12	12	24	25	3
Weii.com	10	8	7	9	9	17	23	24	4
Foxsports	10	10	11	13	12	14	26	26	5
NFL.com	11	7	7	9	12	15	25	26	3
CHFF	11	8	7	11	13	18	25	25	4
Sagarin Ratings	11	9	9	13	12	16	27	28	4
ProFootballTalk	12	7	8	10	10	15	27	27	3
Average	9.2	7.0	7.5	9.6	11.9	14.7	25.2	25.0	4.3

For a summary of all NFL teams using some of the same rankings, go to NFLpowerranks.com

Seven Statistical Nuggets To Take Away

One.Cool.Customer — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 10:42:49 -0000

Random statistical thoughts and musings as we look ahead to the last four games.

1. The curious case of the Dallas Offense on 3rd downs.

Last week, we looked at our defense in 3rd down situations, this week it's the offense: Through twelve games this season, Dallas has managed to convert 39.9% of third downs into first downs (61/153), and is ranked a middling 15th in the NFL. That is not a championship caliber conversion percentage. Top 5 in the NFL are IND (51), MIA (49), MIN (47), NO (46), GB (46). It is no coincidence that the three teams with best records in the NFL are in the Top 5.

To better understand what's going on on 3rd downs, we'll need to look at some stat breakdowns. As you know, stats don't lie, so here goes:

Distance required

No other Quarterback in the NFL has attempted to pass on more 3rd and long situations in the NFL than Tony Romo. Stats LLC put the number at 63 (they define 3rd and long as 8+ yards, and remarkably Romo has the 2nd best completion percentage in the league with 39.7). That is one big, ugly stat to hold the lead in. It stands to reason that the longer the distance required on 3rd down, the lower the conversion rate would be, but that is only one part of the issue:

Cowboys 3rd down conversions by distance required, 2009

	Short (1-3)	Medium (4-6)	Long (7-10)	Very Long (11+)
Attempts	39	23	52	39
Conversions	28	7	18	8
in %	72%	30%	35%	21%

A couple of things pop out from this table: We have faced more 3rd and very long situations than short and medium situations. Of the 39 very long situations, 18 resulted from a penalty (or multiple penalties - we're good at that) on the previous plays and 11 from sacks on previous plays. Finally I begin to understand why sacks and penalties are called drive killers.

Also, our conversion rate on 3rd and medium is atrocious. The conversion rates on other distances are slightly above NFL averages. On 3rd and medium, the Cowboys ran the ball 3 times, converted once and Romo was sacked once. Leaves 19 pass plays, of which we converted only 6. It should come as no surprise that these conversions came on passes to Austin (3/3 conversions on 3rd and medium) and Witten (3/7). All other targeted receivers failed to catch the ball: Williams (0/4), Crayton (0/2), Barber, Bennet and Hurd (all 0/1).

Nowhere has Barber's fractured thumb and torn quad affected us more than on these medium distance passes. Last year, Barber caught 52 of 62 passes for a league leading 85.2% reception rate. Through 12 games this year, he's only 18 for 24, and that's critical production we're sorely missing.

Target Distribution

Every week, NFL quarterbacks line up on third down knowing that if they can connect with their clutch receiver - that go-to guy who rarely lets them down - they can keep a drive alive rather than head back to the sidelines in frustration. So who's that guy on our team?

Target distribution, 3rd down

Passing						Rushing
	Target	Cmp	Cmp%	1st Dn	1st Dn%		Att	1st Dn	1st Dn%
Witten	26	19	73%	12	46%	Barber	13	10	77%
Austin	22	14	64%	10	45%	Choice	10	4	40%
Williams	20	5	25%	5	25%	Romo	6	2	33%
Crayton	17	10	59%	8	47%	Jones	3	2	67%
Choice	10	7	70%	3	33%	Total	32	18	56%
Ogletree	4	4	100%	3	75%
Bennett	5	1	20%	1	20%
Hurd	3	1	33%	1	33%
Jones	1	1	100%	0	- -
Barber	1	0	- -	0	- -
Total	110	62	56%	43	39%

At this point in the season, I'm not sure that any of our receivers deserve the 'clutch' attribute. While Witten continues to impress with a high reception rate, this has not translated into above average 3rd down conversions. Ogletree's numbers look nice, and although they've come off limited and very specific plays drawn up especially for him, perhaps the guy should play a bigger role in our offense soon.

Until I reviewed these numbers I had still been on the Roy Williams bandwagon, albeit guardedly, but when my playbook breakdown spat out the numbers above, I had to puke. 15 of 20 passes on third down not caught! So far this season, Roy Williams is a drive killer, pure and simple, on par with penalties and sacks. Keep him on the field when we're in the red zone, but on 3rd downs I'm beginning to agree with dunkman, it's time to FREE THE OGLETREE!!

There have been some recent posts and comments on here lately calling for Choice to take over for Barber. Well, the stats have one word for that idea: Bunk! Barber is 10 out of 11 on conversions on 3rd and short, and came up short on a 3rd & 8 and 3rd & 9. Choice is 3 for 5 on 3rd and short, 1 for 3 on 3rd & medium and, like Barber, 0 for 2 on 3rd & long. Which makes you wonder why we're running at all on 3rd & long.

Romo's two run conversions both came on 3rd & 3, one for a TD in the first game against the Giants. His four remaining runs were scrambles on 3rd and very long situations (24, 20, 18, 18).

Passing

Romo's completion rate on 3rd downs is 56%. Not good by any stretch of the imagination, but if you take out Roy Williams' numbers, it improves to 63%. In a similar vein, Romo's passer rating on 3rd downs is 78.4. Excluding Roy Williams, that number jumps to 90.2, which is much closer to his season average of 96.3. There must be a lesson in that somewhere ...

Completion percentages by down and distance, 2009

	Short (1-3)	Medium (4-6)	Long (7-10)	Very Long (11+)
Passes	18	19	43	30
Pass compl. %	72%	37%	56%	60%
1st dn%	61%	32%	42%	27%
Sacks	1	1	5	2

2. First it giveth then it taketh away

"Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game." How many times have you heard someone - a player, a coach, a broadcaster or a fellow blogger - say that? There's no denying that protecting the ball is vital to a team's success.

So far this year, Dallas has turned over the ball 17 times (7 INT, 10 Fumbles), which is tied for 8th in the NFL and is pretty decent.

On Defense, the situation is less rosy. So far this season, we've recorded 15 takeaways (8 INT, 7 Fumble recoveries). Rank in the NFL? 30th. And that with a defense that, even after Sunday, still ranks 6th in the league in points allowed? Jeez. Folks, it's time to face the facts. Our secondary is the headquarters of the Texas chapter of the Roberto Duran fanclub. Lucky for us, Mike Jenkins' membership was revoked at the beginning of the season.

Overall, Dallas is currently -2 in the turnover department, and ranked 18th in the league in TO ratio. But what matters more than just this stat is what a team does with the ball after the turnover:

The Cowboys have scored a total of 37 points from their 15 Takeaways, but have allowed 61 points following their 17 Turnovers for a TO Scoring Differential of -24 points. NFL rank: 24th.

The average points scored off a turnover in the NFL this season are 2.9. In the rare event that we manage a Takeaway, we score a miserly 2.5 points as a result. When we give up a turnover, our opponent scores an average of 3.6 points.

Hopefully Wade Phillips has long realized that something needs to be done about this. It's tough to force turnovers when your corners are playing 10 yards off the ball. It's just too easy for any half decent quarterback to exploit. In fact, 7 out of 12 QB's we've faced have posted a better passer rating against the Cowboys than their season average.

The Cowboys must find a way to start getting more Takeaways.

3. Lost: Running game. Reward if found: Playoffs.

According to Football Outsiders Offensive Line Rankings the Cowboys were ranked number two in run blocking heading into the Giants game, with an Adjusted Line Yards per carry of 4.62.

This remarkably high Yards per carry suggests that the Cowboys had a dominant running game, and indeed, the Cowboys were ranked first in rush offense with a rushing DVOA of 25.6%, ahead of NO, JAC, MIA and TEN (in that order).

Our RB's were ranked second only to the Panthers with 46 runs of 10+ yards, our rushing yardage from 10+ runs in percent of total rushing yards ranks 'only' 5th according to FO with 28% (TEN 40%, SF 33%, JAC 28%, MIN 28%).

So where did our running game go?

As we're entering the final stretch of the season, an strong running game might come in handy. I understand that Jason Garrett might have forgotten it on the plane on the way to New York, and the whole coaching staff is now feverishly trying to find it again.

***

Cheerleaders across the nation salute our valiant but ultimately futile effort on offense against the Giants

***

4. The Axis of Evil

Ever wonder where opposing QBs are throwing the ball, and how successful they are? No? Well I did wonder, so I reverse-engineered the game-by-game stats at ProFootballFocus.com (through the week 12 Oakland game) to come up with the niftly little picture below. Notice how we have exactly zero picks on the right side of the field?

Doesn't seem to be a good idea to throw long passes down the left, and Jenkins' endzone INT yesterday proves that point further. The axis of evil along the right side on the other hand is where the Nicks TD reception happened, and the dink and dunk short yardage crap resulted in the Jacobs TD reception.

5. Who's covering TE's and RB's?

Despite ranking 6th in points allowed, the Cowboys Defense is ranked only 20th in passing yards allowed. A part of the reason for that may be that our defense is particularly susceptible to those short, dinky, middle of the field passes to TE's and RBs. Here's how FootballOutsiders ranked the Dallas Defense through week 12 against different types of receivers:

Cowboys Defense vs different types of receivers, FootBallOutsiders, 2009

	WR #1	WR # 2	Other WR's	TE's	RB's
NFL rank	9th	20th	27th	30th	30th

The Giants game is par for the course against these stats. The #1 WR (Smith) was held to 6 receptions on 13 throws and no TD. The #3 WR (Nicks) and the RB (Jacobs) had one TD each.

6. How To Shoot Yourself In The Foot. Painfully. Repeatedly.

As you may have noticed, towards the end of these posts I like to revel in the statistical greatness of the Dallas Cowboys. Over the last week I have trawled the dusty corners of the internet in search of heretofore overlooked statistical oddities that provide irrefutable proof that the Cowboys rule planet pigskin. Today, I present to you four statistical nuggets in which the Cowboys were ranked No. 1 or 2. Rejoice with me!

Oh, wait a second, in this particular case, being at the top of these stat categories is a double-edged sword:

With 70 Punts received, only the 49ers have been punted against more than the Cowboys. What initially looks like a good stat - if our opponents had to punt, they weren't able to score after all - looks much less appealing when you realize that the reason that number is so high is because we rank Nr. 30 in takeaways (49ers ar T-32nd). Personally, I would gladly trade that stat for a few more takeaways, but that's just me.
Through week 12, the Cowboys held their opponents to an average 25.85 yards starting field position, again No. 1 in the league, and a key reason why they hadn't been giving up a lot of points this year. Unfortunatley, our own starting position on offense isn't much better: At 27.28 we were ranked 26th in the league, one of the key reasons we have to put up an inordinate amount of yards to score a modest number of points. Oh, and did I mention that a few more takeaways would be appreciated?
Also through week 12, Dallas allowed a league low 4.37 yards per play on 1st downs. Combine that with an okay-ish 36.8% 3rd down conversions allowed (Rank 15th), and we should expect opposing offenses to be off the field pretty quickly, right? Wrong. Our Defense enjoys being on the field so much, they like to hand our opponents some freebies when their drives are stuttering: With 23 first downs allowed on penalties, we rank 28th in the NFL. And some takeaways would also help get the offense back on the field, just saying ...
For some inexplicable reason, Kickers have a hard time converting field goals against Dallas. In fact, the success rate of opposing FG kickers is an astonishingly low 68.2 % (15/22). Rank in the NFL: No.1. Regrettably, our own kicker is having some problems as well and has converted only 66.7% (16/24). Rank in the NFL: 29th. I guess what goes around comes around.

7. Yes, this is also a stat!

BTB Roll Call Open Game Threads vs. Giants (120 posters, 3003 comments)

___________

Sources: 1. NFL Gamebooks 2. ProFootballWeekly Misc. Team Stats 3. FootballOutsiders, 4. ProFootballFocus 5. FootballOutsiders 6.Field Pos.: Footballoutsiders, First downs: TSN, Punts, Takeaways, Kicking, all others: Foxsports. Pics: bthesite.com, si.com.

NFL Power Rankings - Week 13 - Final Edition

One.Cool.Customer — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:20:38 -0000

Here's the early edition of our weekly power ranking roundup heading into week 13, including some blurbs on the Giants.

Final update should be ready by Wednesday night.

1. Major Media Networks & Affiliates

Pete Prisco at CBSSports.com:

Cowboys: 4th (+1)."The offense woke up against the Raiders, which is a good sign moving forward. But it will be December the next time they play and we know how they fade in that month."
Giants: 13th (-2). "This is a team in big trouble. If Eli Manning can't play at close to 100 percent the rest of the way, they can forget the playoffs. Even with [him], they could miss out."

SportingNews.com:

Cowboys: 6th (+1). "QB Tony Romo and wide receiver Miles Austin have built a chemistry that produces positive results."
Giants: 14th (-3). "QB Eli Manning's foot problems are the latest concern for an entire team that is limping"

NationalFootballPost.com:

Cowboys: 7th (+1). "Another Thanksgiving win for a Cowboys team that can end the Giants playoff hopes this Sunday."
Giants: 16th (-4). "The Giants look like a team that is going nowhere fast, and a loss to Dallas will put them in the ground for good."

ESPN:

Cowboys: 7th (+1). "The Cowboys' schedule gets tough with games against the Giants, Chargers and Saints coming up. (Clayton)"
Giants: 15th (-4). "The season comes down to their next two home games: Dallas and Philadelphia. (Clayton)"

NFL.com's Brain Trust of Experts: 7th (+3). NFL Stupidologist Jason La Canfora does not see the Cowboys in the playoff picture: "NFC Pretenders: Dallas (8-3). We all know what this team does in December. Historically, Tony Romo has been awful in the season's final month, and the schedule down the stretch is brutal. Teams are taking away Jason Witten, now beat up, and no one else is stepping up on a consistent basis. Even though he's coming off a seven-catch, 145-yard Thanksgiving performance, Miles Austin isn't going to bring it every week. The defense has been better, but the history of late-season collapse is very real and hard to shake. With two other very capable teams in the division right on their heels, and a loss to Green Bay a potential wild-card killer, I don't like their chances. Even in two of their wins, over Washington and Kansas City, the Cowboys were awful and should have lost. I see it all catching up with them in the end. Prediction: By the end of this upcoming three-game stretch, they'll be chasing the pack and beating the Redskins on the road won't be easy. They might not win another division game. If it goes down like I think it will, look for heads to roll in Big D this offseason." Scientists, linguists and statisticians have analyzed this drivel and can not make any sense of it.

Michael Silver at Yahoo Sports:

Cowboys: 8th (nc). "Do the Cowboys think Adam Duritz wrote “A Long December” for them?"
Giants: 16th (-2). "Can they survive Antonio Pierce’s season-ending injury – and if so, who will step up and lead the defense?"

[update] Don Banks' Power Rankings

Cowboys 8th (+1). "For a team that has won six out of seven games, losing only to Green Bay at Lambeau in the past two months, there sure seems to be a lot of doubters when it comes to Dallas. But with December having finally dawned, the Cowboys get another chance to exorcise the ghosts of what has been their cruelest month in recent years. But it won't be easy. At the Giants, home against San Diego, and at New Orleans is a brutal three-game stretch to start things out. All that hangs in the balance is the outcome in the NFC East, the only division race that has much suspense."

Giants: 16th (-5). "If the Giants are going to make any noise these next two months, they have to rediscover their offensive identity, starting this week at home against Dallas. New York's power running game has to establish the tone on offense with a downhill, straight-ahead style of attack, and that sets up the opportunities in the passing game for Eli Manning. The Giants coaching staff needs to show some faith in an offensive line that has led the way to success in the past. This should be the time of the year when New York pounds away in the running game."

Peter King in MMQB: 9th (+1). "Moments of truth coming for the 'Boys in a 14-day span, beginning Sunday at the Meadowlands: at Giants, vs. Chargers, at Saints."

Fox Sports:

Cowboys: 10th (nc). "I don't want to hear how the 8-3 Cowboys are back, or how they should be higher on this list. Have they dramatically improved since the egg they laid against Green Bay? Should I rocket them up the list for beating the Redskins 7-6 (a game they deserved to lose) and the mighty Raiders at home on Turkey Day? Their defense is strong, but the offense still hasn't truly clicked and still can't touch some of the tougher defenses in the NFL."
Giants: 14th (+1). "Especially coming off a horrendous holiday showing in Denver, the panic button is being hit in New York with the report that Eli Manning's lingering foot issue could be a major catastrophe ... added to news that LB Antonio Pierce is done for the season. You think this is panic? Yo, see what happens if the Giants lose to the Cowboys at home to fall to 6-6." Foxsports, home to the King of Wishful Thinking.

2. Blogs & Other Media

Zac Wassink is back from his honeymoon and publishing again at Associated Content:

Cowboys: 5th (+2). "Can Tony Romo actually perform in December? We'll see."
Giants: 16th (-5). "Eli Manning is hurt. Antonio Pierce is out for the year. Things aren't looking good for Big Blue."

ProFootballWeekly:

Cowboys: 6th (nc). "Still leaving points out on the field."
Giants: 14th (-3). "That offensive line just isn't the same group we have known."

[new] TSN.ca:

Cowboys: 6th (nc). "Ran the ball effectively against the Raiders -- no great feat -- and it led to another 300-yard passing game for Tony Romo. With the Giants, Chargers and Saints up the next three weeks, though, there is no time to sit back and enjoy the individual numbers."
Giants: 12th (-3). "A pair of must-win home games, against divisional rivals Dallas and Philadelphia, are up next and the G-Men can't afford to settle for the split if they are going to get back in the playoff picture."

Fanhouse.com:

Cowboys: 6th (+2). "Fattening up during October and November (especially with a Turkey Day game against the Raiders), Tony Romo and the 'Boys now have to prove their mettle in December and January, something that has been a problem for quite a while. If they can get through the beastly schedule with a playoff spot, they'll have earned it."
Giants 16th (-3). "Oh how the Giant have fallen. From 6-0 and hearing whispers of a Manning-Manning Super Bowl to being one more crippling loss from missing the playoffs, the G-Men have battled a rough string of injuries. However, there is no excuse for losing five of your last six games if you consider yourself championship contenders."

Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com:

Cowboys: 7th (+2). "The Cowboys will get a strong dose of reality later this month, when they head to the Superdome"
Giants: 15th (-4). "Is it too late for the Giants to not give Eli Manning that $100 million contract?"

Weii.com:

Cowboys: 8th (+-0). "Tony Romo is known for struggling in December, and the Cowboys’ schedule gets tougher going forward. The next three games (at Giants, vs. Chargers, at Saints) will show how good this Cowboys team really is."
Giants: 17th (-4). "Eli Manning’s foot injury should be a major cause for concern among Giants fans. His foot has bothered him most of the season and it has showed."

[update] ColdHardFootballFacts.com

Cowboys: 8th (-1). "The Cowboys quietly have the league's No. 2 scoring defense (16.5 PPG) despite allowing 5.2 yards per play (14th)."
Giants: 18th (-5). "It may be worth noting that at this same point in the 2007 season, the Giants were 7-4, coming off a 41-17 loss to Minnesota, and firmly on the list of 'teams that have no shot.'"

3. Statictics & Computer based rankings.

Great Blue North Draft Report: 4th (+1). This site calculates rankings by first round draft selection order based on own and opponent W/L record if the season were to end today.

AdvancedNFLstats: 7th (+1). Offense ranked No. 2 (+1), Defense ranked No. 21 (nc). This ranking model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates.

Covers.com:

Cowboys: 7th (+1). "Dallas got the offense moving on Thanksgiving but it still was far from perfect. A big game at the Giants will help sort the playoff picture or jumble it even more."
Giants: 14th (-5). "All is not well for the Giants as they have now dropped five of their last six games, have three straight division games up next and have to deal with all of the Eli rumors."

tom slick publishes his Rankings on SBNation's The Falcoholic: 7th (-1). He weighs offensive and defensive points scored/allowed relative to all other teams to determine his rankings.

WhatIfSports: Cowboys 8th (+3). These guys simulate every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and use the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team, with updated rosters and depth charts.

Jeff Sagarin's NFL rankings: 9th (+1). These are rankings based on W/L record, points differential and schedule strength.

[update] FootballOutsiders: 8th (+1). Offense ranked No. 4 (+1), Defense No. 18 (nc), Special Teams No. 8 (nc). They also offer these two Quick Reads.

Romo: "It's hard for a quarterback to put up big DYAR totals while converting on only one of the nine third downs he faced, but Romo was able to do so thanks to big plays on first and second down. It also wasn't exactly all Romo's fault; he was victimized by drops, and he faced third downs that required 11, 15, 17, 23, and 24 yards for conversion."
Austin: "Even more impressive than Austin's numbers above is the fact that he spent a fair amount of his day against Nnamdi Asomugha, who normally erases wide receivers off the field. Outside of Vincent Jackson, who outplayd an injured Asomugha in Week 1, no one's done better work against the league's premiere cornerback this year than Austin. (In all fairness to Asomugha, he was not in coverage on Austin's touchdown, and was expecting a safety to be behind him in zone coverage on Austin's biggst play of the day, a 49-yard completion in the first quarter.)"

Here's how the NFC East fared:


	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week
CBSsports	4	5	8	9	13	11	27	27
Great Blue North	4	5	9	11	12	9	28	27
Assoc. Content	5	10	9	14	16	15	26	25
ProFootballWeekly	6	6	8	10	14	11	26	24
TSN	6	6	9	7	12	9	25	25
SportingNews	6	7	8	9	14	11	26	25
Fanhouse.com	6	8	10	12	16	13	29	29
tom slick	7	6	10	8	18	15	19	19
Advancednflstats	7	8	5	6	10	7	17	17
NFP	7	8	9	9	16	12	23	24
ESPN	7	8	9	10	15	11	26	24
Covers.com	7	8	11	12	14	9	26	25
ProFootballTalk	7	9	10	12	15	11	27	26
CHFF	8	7	11	12	18	13	25	25
NFL.com	7	10	9	9	15	12	26	24
Yahoosports	8	8	9	10	16	14	25	24
Weii.com	8	8	9	9	17	13	24	24
FootballOutsiders	8	9	4	4	14	11	21	22
SI.com	8	9	9	10	16	11	24	26
Whatifsports	8	11	20	10	14	17	26	27
Sagarin Ratings	9	10	13	11	16	9	28	28
Foxsports	10	10	13	13	14	15	26	26
Average	7.0	8.0	9.6	9.8	14.8	11.7	25.0	24.7

For a summary of all NFL teams using some of the same rankings, go to NFLpowerranks.com

SB Nation User Blog: One.Cool.Customer

NFL Power Rankings - Week 16 - Final Edition

Trolling Saturday's Open Game Threads on SBNation

Pregame

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1st Quarter

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2st Quarter

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3rd Quarter

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4th Quarter

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10 Minutes after the final whistle

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BTB is the No. 4 ranked NFL Sports Blog in the country

BTB is the No. 4 ranked NFL Sports Blog in the country

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NFL Power Rankings - Week 15 - Final Edition

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Seven Statistical Nuggets To Take Away

NFL Power Rankings - Week 13 - Final Edition