More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

No, it's not this guy (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello).

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To put it simply, I think I'm done with the Texans for the year. I'll tune back in the spring to see who gets drafted, but I'm not watching this shit anymore this season. Unfortunately, the Astros are mired in suck and the Rockets' stars are injured. Not a lot to look forward to over the next few months, Houston sports-wise.

Well, I think the Rockets' start to the season has refuted a lot of that sentiment, but, as Dave is quick to note, the Rockets don't have a star on the roster right now, and the Rockets, while good, are not a team that can expect to go far in the playoffs. Now, I think the "star" epithet is largely meaningless, mostly just referring to whoever gets on ESPN highlights a lot, but it has some meaning. Typically, when people say "star," they mean someone who scores a lot. If we break this down a little further, it can be taken to mean "a player who uses a lot of possessions and converts them efficiently." There's no statistical "line" that will delineate "stars" from "great role-player," but I think we can agree that stars will show similar statistics, right?

So let's look at some numbers. Here are the statistical lines (courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com) of three NBA Power Forwards, two of whom are widely considered to be "stars" on some level. First, here are the per-36 rates:

Player A has a clear advantage in scoring over B (and, to a lesser extent, C), and smaller advantages in rebounding and blocks. However, he (as well as C) is much more turnover prone than B, and is nowhere near as skilled of a passer.

Personally, I never really liked per-minute stats. Teams play at wildly divergent paces. Still, per-minute stats capture some of the "star" qualities in a player - the ability to take a lot of shots, for instance. But let's look at per-possession stats:

Things start to look a little different. Players A and C are using similar portions of their teams' possessions, they have similar assist numbers, and are fairly close in effective Field Goal percentage and blocks. B's rebounding looks much better, his advantage in passing looks even more solid, and he is obviously the least turnover-prone. But A has the best shooting numbers, and his rapid, efficient scoring leads to massive advantages in compiled metrics like PER and O-Rating. And, by Win Shares, he has contributed the most wins in 19 games.

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More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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I have to get to class soon, so I'm going to make this short.

Dave made a comparison between Ariza and a certain player earlier this morning, and I think it expresses a concern we've all felt: Trevor is trying to shoot the Rockets out of the game. In fact, Dwyer at BDL has explicitly said this. The argument seems to be a simple one: Ariza takes too many threes.

And yet we're faced with a dilemma: the Rockets, whom we all suspect to be geniuses or androids or something, are apparently encouraging Trevor to do these things. What's up wit dat?

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More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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I'm going to leave the official recap to someone (Xiane?) who actually saw the second half of the game last night. Instead, I'd like to talk about a discussion that took place between myself and a few commenters over at Clips Nation. If you didn't see the game, the Rockets battled the Clippers closely for three quarters, occasionally pulling ahead but never able to totally break away, until finally the LA offense (and defense) collapsed late in the fourth to create a blowout.

So, anyways, the discussion... Basically, I responded to two things: (1) the statement (typical of most observers at this point) by Steve Perrin that Chris Kaman had a significant height advantage over Chuck Hayes, and so he should be able to dominate on offense, and (2) Steve's question about whether or not we should really believe that Daryl Morey has achieved what he has via stats, or if the Rockets' success happened as a result of the influence of traditional scouting, and so this could happen with any "traditional" team. I and the commenters went back and forth about this for a while, but I've had a few hours to let this stew in my head, and I think I can consolidate my argument better here (not that anyone really gives a shit). My point here is one that is fairly simple: we must take stats (and the statistical revolution) seriously, and I mean this in two ways.

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I'm not going to pretend that I know all that much about the Clippers this season. Here's what I do know:

The Clipshow features the 24th-best offense in the NBA this season and the 16th-best defense. As you all know, 1st-overall draft pick Blake Griffin was injured in training camp and won't return for a few more weeks. Chris Kaman started the season off with a bang, but has slowed down quite a bit from his initial pace. Eric Gordon continues to impress in his second year, while Al Thornton looks surprisingly good to start the season, though I wouldn't bet on that continuing. Despite an epic meltdown against the Grizzlies on Sunday, the Clippers have been fairly hot over the past few games.

On the Rockets' side, Carl Landry should be getting the first start of his career, though Scola will apparently be available, sporting stylish new goggles.

There. You're all caught up.

In honor of our shared history, here's Cuttino Mobley dunking on Lamar Odom.

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

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Shane Battier, I think, is one of the weirdest players in the league. That's not a shocking statement or anything - it is, after all, why Michael Lewis wrote that article about him - but I think we tend to assume around here that everyone accepts Shane's greatness, on some level. That clearly isn't the case, sadly. And that shouldn't be surprising, because (as I said previously) he's a weird player. So I'd like to kick off this week with a focus on the No-Stats All Star and perhaps shed some light on his disguised value.

The two most frequent criticisms I hear about Battier's game are:

1. He contributes nothing on offense
2. He has lost his defensive touch, or his defensive value was always overstated.

The first criticism stems from a misunderstanding of the way players can contribute to the offense. Volume shooters (Kobe, McGrady, Arenas, Steve Francis, etc.) help their teams (even if, sometimes, they aren't particularly efficient) by using possessions and "creating" (as vague a term as that is, it describes something real, I think). Efficient shooters (Steve Kerr, Novak, Ariza prior to this season) help their teams by not taking bad shot and converting the opportunities they're given at a very high rate. Battier obviously falls into this second category, scoring primarily as a spot-up shooter around the arc.

To say that Battier doesn't have an offensive game is foolish. He's efficient, even if he doesn't take many shots, and that matters. Not everyone can use 25% of the team's possessions, and so having somebody who can simply convert open field goals is very valuable.

The second criticism is a little more difficult to address. Shane's reputation is based almost entirely around his defense, and he has acquired (rightly or wrongly) a reputation as a "shut-down defender."

Matt Moore (of Hardwood Paroxysm fame) interviewed Chris Ballard (author of "The Art of a Beautiful Game") a few days ago. Ballard's book (which Tom reviewed a few weeks ago) includes a chapter on Battier. Roughly the last half of Moore's interview focuses on Battier, statistics, and (most interestingly) the Rockets' Front Office.

Ballard describes the defensive strategy employed by the Rockets against Brandon Roy and the Blazers in the playoffs last year. Roy, unlike Kobe, does not really favor a particularly side of the basket when scoring, driving to either side with equal frequency and converting field goals at roughly the same rate. However, Roy was better able to "create" to his left ("create" here meaning "creating space"), but was more likely to pass out to a teammate when driving to his right.

The Rockets, somewhat counter-intuitively, decided to force Roy to his left. He'd be able to score at a better rate and would make some nice highlight-reel plays, but he wouldn't be as able to get his teammates involved.

Shane can be a shut-down defender. We've seen him wreck Kobe's game at times, slow Melo down, and force LeBron James into the worst game of his career. But Ballard shows us that the way the Rockets think about good defense and the way they use Battier is a lot more complex than simply shutting down the other team's main scorer.

Consider this an endorsement for adjusted plus-minus, which we know the Rockets look at. APM is subject to a lot of noise, and it isn't useful on any level smaller than an entire season, but it should (theoretically) capture the obscured parts of team defense. While boxscore-based metrics tend to show that Battier's a good wing player, I think APM is probably the best way to evaluate a player like Shane. APM metrics generally show Battier is a pretty good player, though it's clear that the Rockets think he's more than that. I'm inclined to trust the guys with all the proprietary stats.

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I don't know if anyone is going to put up a preview before the game, so here's a mini-preview:

The Spurs are off to another slow start for the season, but are currently 7-6. Injuries to the big three probably have something to do with that. Manu might be out, but Parker should be in the game.

Like the Rockets, the Spurs are much better on offense than anyone expected, but they are also (like the Rockets) much, much worse than expected on defense. Expect Houston to try to push the tempo against the old guys.

Oddly enough (noted by Hardwood Paroxysm this morning), they're 0-4 on the road so far. Go figure.

Update from Tom: Recap coming tomorrow - got hung up tonight.

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Pretty much how I've felt throughout this whole ordeal.

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(Note: I wrote this a few hours ago, and I'm not really sure I should post it. I'm afraid that it probably misstates what many people are really saying about this topic, but on the other hand it's something that I really do feel is going on, in a way)

Since virtually nothing else is being written about the Rockets today, I might as well go ahead and just concentrate on this crap (not that we haven't done this enough already) in lieu of a real links post.

T-Mac practiced with the team yesterday, and Rockets.com's Jason Friedman continues to provide one of the few non-bullshit voices out there:

"Obviously, being out for so long, it takes awhile to get in NBA playing shape and gain the rhythm and moving with consistency in this game. I could play right now but who knows where my rhythm would be? That takes time, I don’t care how great of a player you are. If you’ve been out for a long time, it takes time. You have to play in games to gain your rhythm."

Rick Adelman was busy dealing with weirder things (h/t Clutchfans), so Elston Turner ran practice:

"He’s a competitor," said Rockets’ Assistant Coach Elston Turner. "What athlete, what former All-Star, wouldn’t want to play? He’s gone through a major surgery and he is coming back and it’s a process to get him back on the court full time. But when you’re building a team, there’s chemistry that develops so when he does come back we would like him to be back - instead of in a week, out a week. He went though through the workout today, he started and he finished but it’s still a process and we have to bring him back slowly.

"I do know that our regular guys have been going at it since the end of September. So if you look at in terms of a timetable, this is basically Tracy’s training camp as far as catching up and being ready. It’s good to see him. Everybody would like him back, he’s an All-Star but we want him back like the All-Star Tracy McGrady."

Okay, so McGrady says he wants to play but understands why he'll probably have to wait, and the coaches say he'll probably have to wait but understand why he wants to play. Easy, right? Whew, I'm glad all that's over. Seriously, this whole saga has been so filled with stupid crap and interpre- oh wait, I forgot, nobody can take anything at face value, because we're all a bunch of 14-year-old girls.

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