I'm far too lazy to actually go look up pitcher matchups, so nyah! We need a discussion thread though.

FILLER!

Wash: "Everything looks good from here... (beat...playing with plastic dinosaurs over his console) Yes. Yes, this is a fertile land, and we will thrive."

(as Stegosaurus) "We will rule over all this land, and we will call it... 'This Land'."

(as T-Rex) "I think we should call it...your grave!"

(Stegosaurus) "Ah, curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"

(T-Rex) "Ha ha HA! Mine is an evil laugh...now die!"

Jonathan Singleton

Jarred Cosart

George Springer

Jonathan Villar

Paul Clemens

Domingo Santana

Brett Oberholtzer

Delino DeShields Jr

Mike Foltynewicz

Telvin Nash

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Not sure who all is going tonight, but I wanted to briefly mention Nick Tropeano, who is pitching tonight.  I liked this fifth round pick from my home team, and he's making me like it more with a 56 strikeouts, 19 walks, and a 2.61 ERA in 48 innings in the NYP this year.


Reports prior to the draft were that his fastball sat in the upper-80s with good movement, but his manager said yesterday that it's in the low-90s range.  I'm not sure if that's true, but if so, that coupled with his quality secondary  pitches, command, and pitchability seems like a nice package and could elevate my view of him from a high-floor back of the rotation type to one who could potentially become a MoR arm.

A guy to keep an eye on, anyhow.

This year's trade deadline felt very much like watching a wrecking ball smash through your beloved home.  Sure, maybe the foundation was already cracked and the doors falling off their hinges, and maybe the leaky roof made it a miserable place to live in, but a part of you loved it anyway.

Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence are gone, and leave a lesser, but younger, team in their wake.

This kind of full-blown rebuilding had to be done, and it did bring back a return.  The question then becomes, did general manager Ed Wade get top value for his players?  What prospects did he get back, and how do the two trades rate?

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I'm posting this as a FanPost, not a front page story, because it's based on rumor and speculation.  Nonetheless, I thought it would be interesting to share.

I read a rumor earlier this evening on TheGoodPhight that the Astros' list of players to choose from as the player to be named later includes seven arms from the Lakewood Blueclaws, not including Jesse Biddle.  This would make sense, as the fourth player will not be a "major prospect" according to mainstream sources.  Not being a major prospect probably also rules out toolsy outfielder Domingo Santana, although he would be a great pick if he is on the list.

So what does that leave?  Lakewood has an assortment of decent grade C/C+ arms, but the best of them is probably 21-year old RHP Lisalberto Bonilla.  Bonilla sports a sparkling 2.06 ERA at Lakewood with an excellent 73/15 K/BB ratio (9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.9 walks).  He made Baseball America's Hot Sheet earlier this month, and they had the following to say about the young righthander:

Bonilla, signed in 2008 out of the Dominican Republic, spent the first two months of the season in the low Class A Lakewood bullpen. He moved to the rotation in early June and looks comfortable in his new role...

...Bonilla has learned to trust his fastball, a lively pitch that usually sits in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. His changeup is a plus pitch, and he's got a usable slider to go with it.

Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus shared his opinion:

Moved to the rotation in early June, Bonilla features an average-to-plus fastball with natural sink, but his changeup is his best pitch, as a true plus offering with plenty of depth and fade.

If this is indeed the fourth player the Astros get back, he sounds like a much better prospect than I expected to get.  A solid to above average fastball, plus changeup, and decent slider with good command paints the picture of a future middle rotation starter--and Bonilla's stat sheet is impeccable, funny name notwithstanding.

There has been a lot of discussion over the last few days about the Astros and potential trades sending Hunter Pence to the Phillies in exchange for Domonic Brown.  In case you didn't already know, Brown is a corner outfielder who was Baseball America's 4th best prospect in baseball for 2011.  He's MLB-ready now and has superstar upside.

I am sure Ed Wade has asked for Brown in a deal, but asking and receiving are obviously two very different things.  Before I get into the meat of this story, I will just say straight-up, Brown is probably off the table in trade talks.  That is the safe assumption to make, and I see little reason to think otherwise.

With that said, I have seen many trade proposals involving Brown from optimistic Astros fans.  Some are moderately ridiculous, but perhaps plausible only as an early Astros offer to begin bargaining.  For instance, a scenario where the Astros send Pence to the Phillies in exchange for Domonic Brown and the Phillies' top first base prospect, Jonathan Singleton.

Other proposals are so ludicrous that if Wade actually made them the Phillies would likely hang up the phone and never call back.  For example, suggesting that Pence is worth Domonic Brown plus two or three other substantial pieces--top 100 prospects along the lines of Singleton.

Believe me, I understand the impulse which drives these thoughts--Pence is a relatively young fan favorite, under inexpensive team control.  I'll even go so far as to say he's a borderline star player--he has, after all, been the Astros' all-star representative twice.

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I've been watching his starts and monitoring his stats via FanGraphs and pitch f/x, and I've had many of my questions answered.  Just took about 5 minutes to do a very quick writeup of my impressions.

• His average fastball velocity (he throws mainly 4S and the very rare 2S) is 89.7mph.  He typically works, as we've been told, between 88mph and 91mph.  His fastball does have good movement and late life, and his long stride means he releases closer to home plate, so his fastball probably plays up a bit, maybe to a 55-60ish rating.  Nevertheless, he won't be confused for a power pitcher anytime soon.
• His present control (ability to throw strikes) is plus-plus.  He works efficiently and doesn't throw many balls.  He throws strikes with all of his pitches.
• His command is still erratic.  It goes through bouts of inconsistency where he misses his spots.  This may be partly due to the movement he gets on all of his pitches, but it's also probably an experience thing.
• That said, he has flashed the ability to go after the strikeout when he needs one, and work efficiently by throwing lots of strikes when the bases are empty.  I would rate his pitchability a plus.
• He throws a five-pitch mix: Four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, curve, and changeup.  He uses all of them regularly (over 10% of the time).
• His off-speed stuff is much better than we've been led to believe.  All of his offerings are major-league pitches and he gets whiffs on all of them.
• His cutter has been the most effective per FanGraphs and pitch f/x.  It comes in looking like his fastball (its average velocity is just a shade slower), but has more late movement, fooling hitters.
• His changeup and curveball still lack consistency, but both show plus potential.  He particularly loses the feel for his curve ball from time to time.  But he also throws some very good ones about 40, 50% of the time (to my subjective eye).  When he gets it right, it plummets out of the zone with very nice depth and late action.  His changeup also shows excellent late movement and a good 8mph speed differential from his fastball.
• His slider is probably his worst pitch, as it falls somewhere between a cut fastball and a true slider.  He uses it to get groundballs at times but it lacks the kind of depth where you could rate it more than average.  He commands it well, though, and it's definitely a major league offering as a result.

My overall impression of Lyles' ceiling has increased slightly since he was called up.  Previously I was viewing him as a good number three starter with a chance to be a no. 2 if all the chips fall in his favor.  His curveball and cutter are both better than I expected and I'm starting to view him as a guy who has a good chance to become a no. 2 starter in the future as he gains more experience and consistency.

I was asked awhile ago by David to do some articles for this year's draft, as I did last season, but I've been very busy this entire season and haven't had time to do any writing for the site. Let me publicly apologize to the other writers on the site for not picking up my end of the slack.

Thankfully, David, native_astro, and Subber10 have picked up the slack marvelously with a nice selection of well-researched draft profiles.

Even though I have not had time to watch all of the Astros games or do the extensive homework necessary to write about the draft for the site, I've still been following the team and casually keeping an eye on the draft. So I'd like to quickly add one article to their high-quality set with my own paltry shadow draft board for the Astros.

I feel that this is a very deep draft class, and there will be many excellent prospects available when the Astros pick at 11. Chances are it will be difficult to point to one player and say with any kind of certainty, "that's the best player available!" Only if one of the top-tier talents like Anthony Rendon, Bubba Starling, or Trevor Bauer somehow drop will it be that easy.

So I think it's possible to weight things slightly in favor of "need" without necessarily sacrificing the "best player available" mentality. As such, this will be my shadow draft board for the Astros.  It's not an absolute ordering by talent, but a board where players who have roughly similar talent are arranged in a way most suited to the organization's needs. For instance, I think Anthony Rendon is clearly the best player available, so I'm listing him first.  But I think Taylor Jungmann and Archie Bradley have similar value--just in different ways which are hard to compare--so I lean toward Jungmann as a guy I think better fits the organization's needs.

My idea of the organization's needs is that the Astros already have many raw, projectable players in the system from the last few drafts and from trades and international free agency. There are plenty of young guys with tools in the farm with the potential to put things together over the next few years. Most of them will bust. The hope is that a few will succeed, and at least one spectacularly.

What the system lacks is not actually upside, contrary to popular belief. Mike Foltynewicz could be a frontline starting pitcher. Ariel Ovando could be a middle of the order, superstar hitter. Delino DeShields could be a gold glove, all-star second baseman. None of those are likely results, but these prospects, and others like them, would not have been brought into the organization if they didn't have big upside.

On the flip side, the Astros have very few polished, high-floor prospects in the upper minors--guys who could be legitimate contributors and not just bench/bullpen players. This is especially true when it comes to starting pitching and power bats. As the young, toolsy players develop, they will need solid, safe players to join them at about the same time they begin to reach the majors. This draft class is very deep in college pitching, and its timing is perfect in that regard.

So my methodology for determining the "need" part of the equation is simply this: Get us some starting pitchers or power bats who will be ready for the majors sooner rather than later. Talent is still king, but when it is difficult to determine whose talent is greater, need comes into play.

Without further ado, here are the top ten draft prospects for my Astros shadow draft board.

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1. Jordan Lyles, RHP

2. Delino DeShields Jr, 2B/OF

3. Jonathan Villar, SS

4. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP

5. Jio Mier, SS

6. J.D. Martinez, OF

7. Jimmy Paredes, INF

8. Tanner Bushue, RHP

9. Austin Wates, OF

10. Ariel Ovando, OF

Source

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Over the past few weeks, I've heard a lot of discussion among fans and sportswriters about the possibility that the Astros pursue solutions in free agency to increase their chances of contending next season.  The Astros have been linked, however spuriously, to players from Carl Crawford to Cliff Lee.

Part of the reasoning seems to be that, shed of the contracts of Lance Berkman and (at least in part) Roy Oswalt, the team has money to spend.  So why not spend it to improve the ballclub?  And in a different situation, I might agree with that thinking.  But as much as I squint at the list of 2011 MLB free agents and contort it up and down, I can't find a single player whose signing I would wholeheartedly favor at any realistic price.

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In 2009, the Astros pitching staff was a disaster.  They had the fourth-worst earned run average in the NL, at 4.54, running out such luminaries as Russ Ortiz and Brian Moehler every five days, not because of injury, but because they simply didn't have anybody better.  The ace of the staff, Roy Oswalt, had the worst season of his career, and the first in which he posted an earned run average over 4.00.

Performing better than that low benchmark is not impressive, and should have been expected from the Astros this season.  What is impressive is just how much better the Astros' pitching staff was in 2010.  The team's 4.09 earned run average doesn't stand out as more than solid at first glance, but when you look at advanced metrics, it becomes clear that the Astros went from one of the worst pitching staffs in the National League to one of the best.

Even better, the team can expect much of this success to continue into next season.  Let's review the key figures on the 2010 pitching staff and try to predict (for those still with the team) how they will perform next season.

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There goes that 77-win prediction that clack, Stephen, myself, and Zachary Levine all offered up for ridicule.  Laugh away.  The Astros continued their limp toward the finish line, now having lost three consecutive games.  This one was largely due to a catastrophic start by J.A. Happ, who, erm, ended his season with a bang.

Happ's eight-run performance took the Astros out of the game before they reached the halfway mark.  He gave out five walks to the Cubs, four of them in the first two innings, a period in which he also gave up four runs.

To be fair, the subsequent four-run fourth inning which knocked him out of the game wasn't entirely his fault.  In that inning, the first batter reached on a throwing error by Chris Johnson, who pulled Brett Wallace off the bag with an inaccurate bullet.  The next batter hit a swinging bunt out in front of Jason Castro, into no-man's land where neither he nor Happ were able to pick it cleanly, and the hitter reached on an infield hit.  The third batter hit a high pop fly which barely dropped in for a hit in front of Brian Bogusevic (playing center field).

You'll notice I've not mentioned any of these batters' names--none of them did anything worthy of praise that inning, aside from putting the ball in play.  The fourth (and Happ's final) batter, however--Aramis Ramirez--followed them with a grand slam into the Crawford Boxes.

Oops.

That comedy of errors wasn't exactly what I'd hoped to see when I went to the ballgame, but at least I got a foul ball.  And a Biggio bobblehead.

Being at the ballgame, I had the advantage of being able to watch Brian Bogusevic closely in center field.  I came away impressed by his range.  Bourn might have caught that pop fly which dropped in for a hit, but Bourn is one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball; Bogusevic didn't get to it in bad shape, and almost made the catch.  Later in the game, he caught a deep drive to center field, not getting a great jump but making the catch nonetheless.  He seems to have the range to play the position at an average level, and his instincts would likely improve with more regular playing time.  Watching him play out there caused me to revise my estimate of his defensive position, and I begin to wonder whether--between Bogusevic, Shuck, Austin, and others--a trade of Michael Bourn might be in the cards sometime in the next year or two, pending their performances in the meantime.

Other positives in the otherwise yawn-inducing game included excellent performances out of the bullpen by Henry Villar (two scoreless innings) and Felipe Paulino (two scoreless innings, four strikeouts), who both ended their seasons strong, if those were indeed their last appearances of the year.  Brett Wallace also hit a big two-run double, a well-struck gapper the opposite way off Zambrano, who was up until that point lights out against a young Astros lineup.  Wallace is on a hitting streak, and has ended his mostly-acrid MLB debut on at very least a bittersweet note.

Tomorrow, Nelson Figueroa takes the mound to relieve Wandy Rodriguez's ailing back.  Magic Wandy's season is done; it wasn't quite magic, but it was solid, and you have to feel good about him going into next year.  Figgy will try to prevent the Astros from being swept at home to end the season.  Sunday's game will also decide whether the Astros finish the season in fourth place, ahead of the Cubbies, or one game behind them, in fifth place.

Would you rather have the higher draft pick?  Ask me again next June, and I'll probably say yes.  Right now, I just want to beat the stinkin' Cubs.

Tonight's game was against a lefty, and you know what that means: No Brett Wallace.  For shame, Millsy.  Carlos Lee, who has been frequently taking his place at first base this month, is batting .230/.261/.391 in September, and he lowered that tonight with his third consecutive hitless game (although he did draw a walk for just the fourth time in the month).

The Astros notched three runs against Pirates starter Zach Duke, but it wasn't enough, as Bud Norris got pounded for five in four and two-thirds innings, striking out six and walking three.  Norris is one of the most inconsistent pitchers I've seen in that his velocity, command, and movement all seem to  fluctuate significantly from start to start.  That said, despite the results, I didn't think this was a terrible start for him; his fastball velocity was solid, and his command was better than it has been in most of the starts where he's gotten blown up.  Credit the Pirates with good hitting (queue snarky follow-up statement).

Chris Johnson and Humberto Quintero each put together two-hit games, with both of them using the whole field in their at bats.  Johnson hit the ball hard both times, and his swing is sweet when he's locked in.  He would be a scary hitter if he were better at recognizing breaking balls.

Pedro Alvarez won the battle of the rookie third basemen tonight, though, hitting the three-run homer which turned Bud's start bad, and singling against the bullpen later in the game.  Despite striking out twice, he has to be the player of the game, and when the other team takes that honor, it's probably an Astros loss.  So things went tonight, despite a late-game comeback attempt by Brian Bogusevic, who hit his third career double and notched his third career RBI to no avail.

Tomorrow, J.A. Happ will try to take the series from the Pirates against fellow lefty Paul Maholm (which probably means no Wallace--again).  I suspect most will be watching an epic in another sport, though, as the Houston Texans shoot for their first 3-0 start and the Dallas Cowboys try to avoid the opposite result at their hands.

Following the trades of Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, the Houston Astros now have a young team, but youth doesn't necessarily mark long-term improvement: It's the quality of the young players that counts.  Still, the team does have some nice pieces in place, in several top prospects and a solid all-around pitching staff.

But there are six teams in the National League Central, more than any other division in Major League Baseball, and the Astros are not the only team with young talent on its roster.  Let's take a look at the core pieces of the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates to get a better feel for the competition and try to pin down the Astros' place in the hierarchy of the NL Central.

For a change of pace, I won't spend much time discussing the Astros themselves here, except by comparison; I'm sure most have a good feel for what the team has in its favor and against it, both from observation and from the excellent stories by my fellow writers on this site.  Instead, let's take a look outside the box of the Astros organization and see what the other losing teams have to look forward to or dread, as the case may be.  We'll leave discussion of the elephants in the room--Cincinnati and St. Louis--for another day.

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Double A is the crucible for many minor league players.  Many of the best prospects in baseball spend a significant amount of time at AA ball, then after a brief stint at triple A, find themselves in the Major Leagues.  Compare this to Triple A where many of the players have actually seen MLB action, but washed out and found themselves in the purgatory between the highest level of the minor leagues and the majors.  You'll find more polished competition at the next level, but Double A may well be the level with the most raw talent.

The competition level is a significant step up from any lower level in the minors, so many prospects flame out at Double A.  It's a great test for whether a young player has a big league future.  Does he produce at this level?  If he's prospect age and he does, he has a good chance of seeing at least some time in the big leagues.

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Over at the SBNation Astros site, myself and my fellow editors there graded most of the Astros' prospects, averaged together our grades, and came up with a top 30 list for the organization's farm system.

I'll just post the list here for the purpose of discussion, but we're doing a whole Prospect Week over at The Crawfish Boxes complete with a 3-4 part Podcast and other content if you feel like dropping by to check it out.

Anyway, here's the list.  Remember that this was assembled by averaging the grades of five different people, and does not represent the sole opinion of myself or any one person.  We had people placing very different weights on performance vs. tools/ceiling, something we discuss in our podcast series.

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With September right around the corner, MLB rosters will soon expand and any player on the 40-man roster can also be on the team's active roster.  The Astros have a number of candidates to be called up in a few days.  Which players from the minors might we be seeing at the major league level over the last month of the season?

Manager Brad Mills has said that the team would like to add pitching and a catcher to the roster.  General manager Ed Wade has also has been repeatedly unwilling to rule out a call-up of top prospect Jordan Lyles, to the dismay of myself and my fellow bloggers.  Certain to return if healthy are relief pitcher Matt Lindstrom and second baseman Jeff Keppinger, who begin rehab assignments in the upper minors this week.

Extra bench bats are always welcome, even if they don't see much playing time, so expect the Astros to call up at least one other position player as well.  Keep in mind, however, that the team will be hesitant to make 40-man moves, so that greatly reduces the likelihood of adding any player not among those on the roster.

What individual players might be on Brad Mills' shopping list to fortify the team?

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The Astros' 12th-round pick from this year's draft, right-handed pitcher James Robinson*, has quietly been one of the best performers in the minor league system during the second half of the season.  I'm not sure why his performance never really jumped out at me until today.  Probably because he started out as a reliever and only recently transitioned to a starting role, posting great numbers in last night's start.  (I don't usually notice bullpen arms until they start making waves at the upper levels of the farm system.)

In 48 innings, Robinson has posted a 3.19 ERA while striking out 44 batters and walking only 8.  His groundball rate is also solid, with 1.81 groundouts for every airout.  He's doing this against competition roughly equivalent to single A ball, with the low A Tri-City ValleyCats.  As such, I put more stock into his performance than I would a pitcher in rookie ball; he could feasibly jump directly to Lancaster next season like Dallas Keuchel did this year.

*I'm not sure whether Robinson's first name is Andrew or James.  He's listed in the minors as James, but in college he appears to have gone by Andrew.

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There are always some draft picks outside of the first three or four rounds who were not highly lauded coming into the draft but who emerge as good prospects in the following year.  Fans of each team often notice these sooner than prospectors do nationally, by delving into scouting reports, watching video, and looking at statistics   As we close on the end of the minor league season, I thought it might be interesting to get up a post about what sleepers to watch moving into next year.

As one of the writers for the Astros SB Nation blog, The Crawfish Boxes, I obviously follow the Astros farm system more closely than any other.  I was involved in draft coverage for the team this year, so I've got a good handle on Houston's draft.  I'll point out a few of the Astros' players to watch, but I'd love to hear about other teams' sleepers in the comments, so please fire away with your own prospects below.

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Wandy Rodriguez pitched a seven inning gem yesterday afternoon, striking out nine and walking only one while giving up one earned run.  He is under team control through 2011, but the team may make a decision on whether they want to trade him, let him depart in free agency after next year, or give him an extension before then.

With Brett Myers now under long-term contract, the Astros have helped solidify the starting rotation for the next few years.  But if baseball has taught teams like the Milwaukee Brewers anything, it's that top of the rotation starters are hard to find and critical to a team's success.  Wandy Rodriguez performed like that kind of pitcher last season, and even in limited action in 2008.  He had a rough start this year, but since the end of June, he's been performing like that pitcher again.  But can he be counted on to be a frontline starter in the future, and do the Astros have enough need for him that locking him up would be a good idea?

Wandy is 31 years old, in the prime of his career.  When he's on, he possesses impeccable fastball command and one of the best curveballs in the game; true swing-and-miss stuff from the lefthanded side.  As a finesse pitcher without high velocity or a diverse pitch repertoire, though, he's prone to getting blown up when his fastball location isn't there or his curve isn't breaking.  On the other hand, as some of his pitching lines lately have demonstrated, when they are both working, he is truly dominant.

As for whether the Astros need him?  They do have some pitching prospects in the minor leagues, including one of the best in baseball, Jordan Lyles.  But as the saying goes, "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect", meaning that injuries and erratic performance are so common among young pitchers that you can never fully rely on a prospect no matter how good he appears to be.

With that in mind, would a moderate extension for Wandy Rodriguez--if he were amenable to the idea--be a good idea to bridge the gap between the team's rotation now and the rotation of the future?

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