I think it's pretty safe to say that some concluded a lack of mobile/puckmovers on the blueline is one of the reasons we had some trouble with offense. D-men that can jump into rushes/plays, make a great first pass, be a threat to pinch but have the speed to get back to prevent fast breaks, etc are underrated imo by some teams/players. Now I'm not gonna say examples like Dennis Wideman, great offensive d-man but defensive liability/gambler a lot(whatever you wanna call what he does) or other examples like Jack Johnson and James Wisniewski are a must for every team because they cause more trouble than their sizable cap hit. I'm talking about up and down, players that can put up points while playing D responsibly. Carle is the huge target in this category on the free agent market, capable of playing against top 4 competition, coming on top against corsi, and producing a ton of Even Strength Points. Some people think because he isn't "very dominant" or "very physical" on D that he isn't important in Philly, but others on BSB think he is one of the reasons for some of their forwards having great offensive years because how he can generate offense at ES with his skillset. I agree with the latter, and think losing him, a tied for 9th in the NHL in ES offensive production for d-men, and a quality top 4 d-man will hurt their offense and defense. But they really don't have that choice, because with a healthy Pronger and no Jagr, they are a couple million over the salary cap as they sit for next year already.

Just around the league:

-Zach Bogosian is a beast because of this, his 82gm equivalent ES production would put him in the top 8 in ES offensive production while he is playing top pair competition and unfavorable o-zone starts. Bogosian is by all means growing into a beast of a 2-way d-man if this isn't his peak(and likely isn't). Too bad he's stuck behind Big Buff(and Enstrom).

-And this similar argument as above(just about) goes the same for Alex Pietrangelo on the Blues, beast.

-PK Subban is a legit 2-way top pair d-man because of this now(mobility/puckmoving/production).

This is also the reason why mobile/puckmoving d-men are important everywhere, even on the bottom pair. I'd even suggest it's very important to have at least 1 mobile puckmoving d-man on each pair for offensive production and clearing the zone reasons. Hillen, even if he was as awful defensively as Eaton or Jurcina or Staios this year, would still have been a better d-man then any of them because he would have been producing a lot more offensively and getting the puck out of our zone better. "Or" even if Donovan or DeHaan(maybe Ness) would have been equally awful defensively as eaton or jurcina or staios this year, would still have been better d-men because of their offensive skillset (although DeHaan's decline in O production makes me question this a little).

It's the reason why Suter is so important to a team, a legit top pairing shutdown d-man who has loads of high-end puckmoving talent and is mobile. And there aren't many legit 2-way top pair d-men in the NHL. He is worth top dollar and gonna get it, and he isn't a "fake" like Wideman/Ehrhoff/Wisniewski/Johnson are/were. He's the real deal. Carle is too, but to a lesser extent because he isn't as dominant defensively. This is also why Chara is king from his all around package. He is likely the best d-man in the NHL: Karlsson may win the Vezina with his huge offensive numbers, and arguably so, but he isn't close to the all around machine Chara is: PP machine, PK monster, ES shutdown beast with great ES production against tough top pair compeition and rough zone starts. Karlsson is still young though, but Chara is still "arguably" the best d-man in the NHL, sidenote this was an example, I too think Weber(goalscoring machine)/ can all be argued as the best d-man in the NHL too.

And this isn't to take anything away from PP specialist d-men, although most PP specialist d-men are usually great offensive producers at ES and usually mobile/puckmovers(although Streit looks to have lost a step). Neither does this take away from shutdown d-men, who imo, great shutdown d-men are as important as great offensive d-men, and sometimes more important. Gleason, Hedman, McDonagh(has a decent o-package too), Bouwmeester, Robidas, Tyutin, Vlasic, Sekera, Hamonic, etc were similarly important to the top offensive d-men in the NHL "this year" because how well they could eat minutes playing a tough shutdown role fairly successfully/decently.


The main point of this post, was to say that just by replacing Eaton/Staios/Jurcina(and 29gms of Mottau) with Donovan/Reese + 1 should make us a better offensive team with the "same exact forwards". Their mobility and puckmoving skills makes us better offensively and "seems to me" to be an underrated quality by fans across the nhl). Not to mention, their defensive abilities seem to obviously be better too. And the other main point of this thread, is that acquiring Carle would be a huge improvement to our defensive core offensively and defensively. Carle is worth $5mil/yr longterm, arguably even more. So as long as "Garth" doesn't screw up our defense by letting Reese walk or not having at least 2 "added" puckmovers from last year's starting roster to this year(EX: Donovan/Reese or Carle/Reese, etc). I'm not saying this is gonna make us a playoff team just by inputting Donovan/Reese, but this should at least make us a better, more mobile, and more competitive team. I still think we need another 15goalscoring 3rd liner, especially if 2 of Nino/Reasoner/Pandolfo are gonna be on our 4th line/be 4th line liabilities again next year(barring a huge increase in 2-way game by Nino). It's just so funny to think that if Eaton/Jurcina/Staios/Rolston/Pandolfo/Reasoner were even mediocre and not bad, we could have actually had a real chance at sneaking into the playoffs(albeit with Nabokov playing red hot at times this year and JT's line being an elite offensive one + our great top 3 defenseman). Obviously, it's all dependent on Garth's offseason moves if we sneak into the playoffs next year, but surprisingly we aren't as far away from the playoffs as we look in the standings and surprisingly the playoffs aren't to hard to accomplish with the right signings/retainings, and that begins with resigining PAP. But cup contention is a whole nother story.

I just wanted to create a bunch of questions on some NHL topics that "intrigue" me and see what everyone here thinks about what the outcomes will be, etc.

Here is the list of questions:

1. What 2 teams do you think will reach this year's stanley cup finals? Who wins and in how many games?

2. Who do the isles take in this upcoming draft? And if you want, which pick do we have(ex: 5th overall, 6th overall)?

3. What team will Parenteau be playing for next season?

4. Who will the islanders biggest offseason addittion for next season be(can not be on the roster now)?

5. Is Cizikas gonna be a nielsen-lite forward as some projected, aka a very good defensive forward with o-upside?

6. What team will Parise be playing for next season?

7. Will Jagr play in the NHL again next year, and if so with what team?

8. Is Lidstrom gonna retire or play another year?

9. Brodeur, is he resigned by the Devils, playing for another team next year, or retiring?

10. How many more seasons do you think Croby's career will last, given his concussion injury question marks?

11. How far into the playoffs do the Predators need to go to convince Suter to resign with them? Where is Suter playing next season?

12. Where will Wideman be playing next year?

13. Who are gonna with these trophies this year: Adams, Hart, Calder, Selke, Norris, Vezina, and Lady Byng? And why not Conn Smythe too?

14. What do you think will be the most logical strting NYI roster at the beginning of next year? (Ex: please no Parise unless you really think we have a 50%+ chance of getting him, same for Suter and other players)

This is all speculative (and observive, is that a word?), and I would love feedback and guesses, but I'm really curious as to what Garth is thinking/planning with some of his moves.

I think it's clear, if not I think I will state it, GARTH LOOKS TO BE DOING A VERY SLOW AND STEADY REBUILD TO BRING THIS TEAM BACK TO ELITE STATUS. Does this method work? With excellent scouting/drafting, solid fair value to discount signings/resignings, a number of top 5/10 draft picks, and some luck, this method could turn you into a team like the Blackhawks or say a team in continual rebuild: Ex: JT/Nielsen/Moulson/PAP/Streit aging/retiring/leaving for UFA before this team can become a continual cup contender, sort of like the Ducks right now, no defensive depth or much forward depth and the likely hood of elite/top talents like Perry/Getzlaf/Selanne/Koivu-even leaving or retiring soon. So as you see, this type of rebuild can be very good or it could lead to continual rebuild due to complete mismanagement of assets and bad luck. Ultimately the Blue Jackets are/are-about to go through what you exactly don't want to see a franchise do from start to "middle" and on of a rebuild, they are a complete mess and going to be extrememly lucky if they see a deep playoff run within the next decade, and describing everything they've done wrong would take too long for me to write right now.

Evidence of slow rebuild:

-Signing stop gap vets that are on the downfall of their careers: (Guerin/Weight/Eaton/Staios/Pandolfo/Rolston)

-Leaving possible/likely NHL ready AHL forwards in the for most of the season.

-Letting coaches with back to back bottom 5 NHL finishes continue coaching the team.

-Trading UFA in their walk year for picks(oddly they didn't do it this year, could be a sizable mistake)

-Trying to accumulate lots of draft picks.

-Continual bottom of the conference finishes

-Continual cap floor spending, and even reaching their with cap mules and buyouts and ELC bonuses.

And of course he has had his question marks/faults during this time too, especially over the last year, arguably hurting the team short term:

-Letting Hillen, our 2nd best offensive d-man leave for nothing this offseason.

-The rushing of Nino to the NHL when he clearly wasn't NHL ready and then using him in a 4th line defensive role with no regular PP time, pretty much the last place you'd expect him to be used.

-The rushing of Bailey.

-The home run "rental" shot of Ryan Smyth at a questional time at/of the team's future(rebuild or play out older vets the next few years?).

-The overdrafting of DeHaan, etc etc.

-2yrs for Mike Mottau?

-Rolston as a $5mil cap mule? Is there a worse dollar/performance player out there? Other than scott go....no even he's better, maybe redden is worse. That's the worst dollar/performance gamble or player we could have found.

-Questioning draft picks, albeit very early.

-Depending on value/what you think of defensive forwards, Okposo being signed for 5yrs and Grabner being signed for 5yrs could turn into overpayments and possibly stupid extensions given length of contract(what if Okposo turns into the next Comeau?)

This isn't meant to scare you, or even belittle what we have as a team right now, but we really need some solid development and signing of young top 4/top 6 talent in the next few years to really make this rebuild see success soon and not turn into a continual rebuild because a number of our "best" players are soon aging or leaving for UFA. Moulson is a 30goal scorer, but 28yrs old, and we shouldn't count on him being a 25goal scorer in his mid-30's, when Strome/Nino should/will likely be peaking. Same goes for Nielsen and his 2-way abilities, possibly more so given he is a "skinny" mobile defensive/2-way forward turning 28 in April with some injury concerns. Same for PAP, he's 29 this month, and one of our top 3 offensive forwards any way you look at it. Losing him would hurt, but so would wasting his talents on a basement team for the next few years of his "slight post prime years". And Streit is the biggest example for numerous reasons, 1 he's the oldest at 34yrs old, 2 he was a true top pair 2-way d-man pre-injury and can go back to it, 3 he's a 10goal/50pts threat and that's something very rare, 4 he's one of the best d-men in our obviously weakest NHL ready spot(d-men), and 5, he's the closest to retirement among impact players on the roster.

This also leads to the "draftees" on this team. How much Bailey experimentation does he get?(not saying he's a bust) Would Garth continue playing Bailey till 25yrs old if all he proves to be is a 10goal/20pts 3rd liner with horrible advanced stats? Same with Okposo. If he proves to be nothing more than an averagish 3rd line checker that puts up 12goals/yr, do you look to drop him and his then overpayed $2.8mil/yr? How long do you continue to sign cap mules and "rush" young forwards for their ELC bonuses? Easier said than done, but these are the big decisions that can make or break a rebuild team.

Then comes the question I have for you guys, and I'd love to read in-depth thoughts and analysis here: Do you guys think Garth is using the right methods/plan to rebuild this team? Do you have any complaints or strong agreements with his plan/methods? POST AND SHOW ME YOUR THOUGHTS!!! :-) I'm sure I missed and didn't go into stuff, so feel free to add too.

Sadly, this slow rebuild means continual basement seasons without some huge internal/draft player improvements and/or unforeseen impact UFA signings. Also sadly, this could lead to NY/Long Island losing the islanders from lack of "powerful people"/mass population support. A big question of "is this type of rebuild and timing worth it at that possible cost"? Lots of interesting questions/ideas/arguments can be brought from this.

I think the most interesting team vs team comparison is gonna be the Oilers vs Us. Both started the rebuild at a similar time, but the Oilers have a lot more offensive firepower than us, but noticably less defensive talent. Gonna be interesting to see "who becomes a cup contender 1st/gets their next cup 1st".

Obviously our defensive depth was a huge issue this year. Staios/Eaton/Jurcina/Mottau all this year proved themselves to be arguably sub-par bottom pair d-men in one way or another. Garth wanted a top 4 d-man last year in UFA/the-offseason and told the world. He came away with Staios, aka no top 4 d-man. Based on that, I just wanted to look at the market from an “advanced stats” standpoint on if there are any real top 4 d-men left in free agency that are viable options for us to acquire:

Nicklas Lidstrom=Not happening

Michal Rozsival= Used as a bottom pairing d-man on the Coyotes this year and protected, but not coming out dominantly on top against easy competition. And not very offensively productive anymore either(even with PP time taken from him, which he wasn’t producing well with the past few years). Is also 33yrs old and likely near the end of his career. Not top 4 caliber D, and don’t offer a contract given numbers.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=MICHALROZSIVAL&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

Dennis Wideman=Turning 29 this month, and on the verge of a 12goal/49pts season, Wideman definitely has the offense teams seek from the blueline, especially on the PP. But what about the defense? Advanced stats in recent years, especially this year, show him to be “sub-par” defensively for a top 4 d-man, being sheltered into nhl bottom pair competition this year and barely coming out on top, but not being heavily sheltered into a very high o-zone faceoff percentage. But that number(s) are still worrisome, especially given he is a 2nd worst among

defenseman minus 5(plus minus), next to john Carlson whom is facing very tough shutdown pair competition. In essence, expect Ehrhoff if you want him. Likely he’ll be able to put up offense for a good amount more years, but expect sub-par top 4 defense out of him, likely bottom pair quality defense. Top 4 d-man? Offensively yes, defensive no. His defensive abilities and noticeably negative plus minus the last 3 years make him looks like a defensive liability at even strength. Looks like Ehrhoff, arguably not worth more than $4mil/yr over the life of his next contract, especially if it spans 3yrs+, but will likely get paid more than that somewhere. I’d suggest staying away because his D partner 37yr old Hamrlik at even strength is a much better 2-way player than him statistically, o-production aside, carrying Wideman defensively you would say, and that alone is a scary conclusion of his 2-way abilities. Isles should stay away from imo.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=DENNISWIDEMAN&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2009_p+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

Pavel Kubina= Huge, physical, 34yrs old, and coming out negative in a shutdown role. Was being carried 2-way stats wise by Brewer in Tampa and has only been around a few games in philly so far. Last year, against bottom pair competition Kubina came out solidly on top, but this year he is struggling in a shutdown role, and most likely in over his head and not capable of the role. Arguably might be passable as a defensive d-man against mid-pair competition, but at his age and given his style of play, any contract for him as a top 4 d-man would be a huge gamble and likely a bad gamble. Highly likely Kubina isn’t top 4 quality next year, let alone for the life of his next multiyear contract. Would be a decent addition as a bottom pair d-man for a year or 2 though I’d say, but I have no idea what the market for him is.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=PAVELKUBINA&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s

Brad Stuart=Stats are not kind to him this year. High o-zone starts, mid d-pair competition, and coming out in the negative as a 2-way player. Best year(s) were with Lidstrom sheltering him. Likely overrated, and at 32yrs old, a physical d-man like him may be close to his last legs. Contract would be a gamble thinking him as a top 4 d-man for any years. Might be shutdown pair worthy, but would need a partner to carry him to be effective. Not worth much $ and likely not worth going after.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=BRADSTUART&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2009_p+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

Filip Kuba=35yrs old and arguably a passable top 4 d-man, but he’s been heavily sheltered with high o-zone starts and isn’t coming out on top(although against tough competition). Not worth a multiyear contract.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=FILIPKUBA&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s

Barrett Jackman= 31yrs old physical shutdown d-man that looks like he has something left in the tank. This is his 1st year not being thrown heavily to the wolves and he looks to be a passable

shutdown d-man still, especially with the right partner. In the past he’s been a good solid shutdown d-man with little o abilities, but he still has those shutdown abilities it appears. Might not have a ton left in the tank, given how we’ve seen Witt/shutdown d-men age, but should be reliable in a shutdown pairing role for another year or 2, if not he should be capable of aging into a decent bottom pair d-man for another couple years after that. And he has the gritz. Seems to get little injuries occasionally, but would likely be our best option to solidify our top 4 defense affordably in ufa. Not sure how to gauge his cost, but $3mil/yr~(I’d guess) for a 2-3 years would be good for both sides.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=BARRETJACKMAN&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s

Ryan Suter=Cream of the crop, Franchise d-man, Prize of the UFA d-class. 27yrs old legit 2-way top pairing d-man, capable in any situation, excels defensively and can put up a lot of points. Need I say more? Worth a king’s ransom, likely not coming here though unless he wants all out money and Garth gives him a blank check, and even then it’s unlikely given the way he’s been talking to the media about “wanting to win”.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=RYANSUTER&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2009_p+2008_s+2007_s+2007_p

Matt Carle=27yrs old offensive top 4 d-man. Numbers are passable as a 2-way top 4 d-man, mostly because of his offense. Very mobile and extremely underrated offensively. Extremely effective 5-on-5 offensively and can help a PP unit at the point. On the verge of a 40pts season, but is much more a passer than a shooter. Likely will earn most pennies of his next contract. You want an offensive top 4 d-man that won’t be a liability in his own zone and will put up points over the life of his contract, Matt Carle is your man. Worth $4mil/yr for 4 or 5yrs, could get more, but looks to be under the radar imo and would be an excellent pick up for any team looking for a reliable, but not dominant defensively, 2-way top 4 d-man.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=MATTHEWCARLE&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2009_p+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

Bryan Allen=31yrs old giant shutdown d-man, but is a huge penalty taking machine. Advanced stats are all over the place, not someone I’d call a reliable d-man. Likely stay away from or acquire cheap for the bottom pair if possible.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=BRYANALLEN&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s

Bryce Salvador=We don’t need no….bum bum bum….Devil’s rejects….bum bum bum….no no no………………….no. No old devils that are underperforming.

Nicklas Grossman= 27yrs old and carried by Robidas most of his career, whom he was a passable shutdown pairing d-man with, and having the worst advanced stats year of his career away from Robidas, not coincidentally. Likely a borderline top 4 d-man. Big, physical, good on the PK, and a decent shutdown d-man. Not optimal and given his numbers drop this year without Robidas, likely a no touch situation.

Greg Zanon=31yrs old defensive d-man. Has had some decent and ugly years. Looks like a passable defensive top 4 d-man, but by no means should be a top pairing shutdown guy to count on. Injuries should be a concern given his style. Too risky to consider a multiyear contract for and may likely be on the decline given his style of play. Likely not worth exploring unless we want a solid bottom pair defensive d-man imo.

Carlo Colaiacovo=too injury prone to consider(?). Although advanced stats say he’s a decent top 4 2-way d-man, but too hard to gauge/consider given injuries, games missed, and past quality of competition. Could be an option????

Joe Corvo=34yrs old offensive d-man that is bad in his own zone. Good on the PP, good offensive but not elite offensive abilities, but just too bad on D. Worst plus minus d-man on his team each of the past 2yrs. A liability at even strength. Do not touch or offer a contract to.

Cory Sarich= 33yrs old and a big physical bottom pair d-man. Nothing more.

Johnny Oduya=30yrs old, good in NJ, not good away from NJ/in ATL/WPG/CHI. Advanced stats say he’s nothing more than a bottom pair d-man.

Jaroslav Spacek=38yrs old, enough said about our team and ancient d-men. And that’s without even going into his “numbers”.

Hal Gill=Nothing more than a PK specialist now.

ADDED:

Jason Garrison :

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=JASONGARRISON&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s
http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474520#&navid=nhl-keymatch

He definitely looks top 4 caliber. A solid top 4 shutdown d-man with some decent puckmoving capabilties and a rocket shot. Would be a nice addittion to the PP and a decent d-man along Streit or A-mac/Hamonic on the top pair or mid-pair. He has size: 6'2'' 215lbs, mobility, and physicality. And 27yrs old, so he should have years left of high-caliber play. I'd offer him 3-5yrs @ $4mil/yr~.

In conclusion advanced stats imo suggest:

Ryan Suter=Bobby Orr in the flesh, well no, but he’s a legit franchise d-man.

Barret Jackman=affordable/realistic top 4 shutdown d-man option for a couple/few years.

Matt Carle=affordable/realistic top 4 offensive d-man option for a few year/even 5yrs given his numbers, game, and abilities.

Jason Garrison=Shutdown top 4 d-man with puckmoving skills and a laser slapshot that could help the PP. Offer 3-5yrs at $4mil/yr~.

All other players mentioned are not close to smart dollar/performance top 4 d-men for their next contract according to advanced stats and more taken into account, but possibly solid bottom pair depth we could add. Obviously the market is thin.

Feel free to mention anyone you think I missed hitting UFA this year. I’ll either add them to the list or give you a reason why I didn’t include them.

In no way am I advocating tanking, deliberate losing or hoping for losing, I just want to seriously ask this question and see what people's opinions are here.

Personally, we have an extremely limited chance for the playoffs and are tied for the 4th worst overall record/pts in the NHL. I haven't looked at the percentages, but it's realistically has to be around a 1 in a 100 shot right now at the best. So in all honesty. any talk of the islanders and playoffs this year isn't gonna happen from anything short of a "humongous big" miracle.

This leads me to.........gaining pts in the standings mean nothing for the rest of the islanders "team" this season. The 1st goal for all teams in the season is to make the playoffs, aka step 1, now that it's a miracle away, gaining pts from now on just means the difference from this team finishing, say for example 15th in the East and 11th/12th in the East. Leading to what? The usually overrated "finishing strong" as indicated by our very poor start this season or how low in the standing we finish.

So essentially, finishing the season means nothing more than "how far we finish out of the playoffs or how high of a draft pick we get or whatever other way you want to spin the situation".

Obviously, from a "player" standpoint it's obviously a little different. I'm sure no player likes losing, but losing and finishing "realistically" 12th in the East and 14th in the East doesn't make a big difference to management, especially in a "tight" eastern basement, as it looks.

You can spin this all whichever way you like, not that I agree with all of these, they are just "things we could say":

Finishing lower in the standings as a "positive":

-Getting a higher/better prospect/draft pick for the rebuild

-Tanking is "ok" because we weren't making the playoffs anyway

-Finishing in the top 3/top 4 draft picks of the draft secures us a now projected "elite" forward/D talent (Nail/Grigorenko/Murray/Dumba)

-Maybe this is a SOS to Garth that we need more outside help and he retools the team better in the offseason

Finishing higher in the standings as a "positive":

-We have took the "next" step in the rebuild as we are progressing in the end of the year standings

-This "strong finish"/"winning" should carry over into next year

-This could say to garth "find the missing piece" this offseason to put us "over the top" into a repeat playoff team

Honestly though, I see the big picture and none of this "really" matters unless A B and C occur from this or A B and C occur from that.

Ex 1: Isles finish on a 10-5 run. Makes no difference to me unless it means they carry it over and start a hot win streak, and even then, that means nothing unless they make the playoffs next season.

Ex:2 Isles finish 3rd worst in NHL and lose the lottery, they take "Grigorenko" for example as an elite forward o-talent, he needs to make a real NHL impact for that "losing" to really make a difference and not become a bust. Maturing like Bailey and doing nothing but "underperforming"(for whatever reason, let's keep that debate out of this) for your 1st 4 years in the NHL would just piss a lot of people off and call for your head, and lead to that pick or "bust" becoming worthless or near worthless if you become a medicore 3rd liner, for example.

As you see I have proof/believe that finishing the season "higher or lower" in the standings at the end of the year, once you've been eliminated from the playoffs from a realistic/miracle-necessary perspective, means absolutely nothing unless that "lower or higher finish leads to multiple domino effects that positively effect the franchise ongoing.

Thus we should focus on "personal"/"player" goals/maturations/finishes/etc. Finding out if/when we our AHL "gems" could be useful NHLers(Cizikas/Ullstrom/Rakh/Donovan/Ness/DeHaan/etc), seeing our younger players mature, hopefully seeing our "lost"/"struggling" players find themselves, etc. The standings mean nothing without a domino effect from their occurrence, thus we should focus on "players" themselves getting better/proving themselves and take the outcomes of games as a 2ndary thing. Losing and winning both have their benefits, but for either to mean anything multiple "positive" domino effect things must occur from them. Thus imo, winning or losing ultimately means very little from now till the end of the season for a team in our position.

Opinions and comments?

Some people have seemed to under appreciate and even undervalue “23yrs old proven top 6 checking forward” Kyle Okposo’s offensive prowess and overall game from my view lately. So I just wanted to set the record straight. And honestly, if it comes down to it, Okposo could fill in for 75%-90% of PAP’s production if throw into the PAP role from where he is now.

I still think PAP is a top 60/50 playmaking forward in the NHL though, I just don't believe losing him would hurt as a lot of people make it out to be. And I think that may be because people underestimate or undervalue what Okposo is and has done so far:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=KYLEOKPOSO&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473449

Okposo is proved already that he is a good and capable top 6 checking forward, okposo’s defensive abilities/game are solid, but I think people truly undervalue his offensive abilities. He's been used as a checker and sub-50% o-zone start forward his whole career till this year, and even this year with PAP's promotion back to the 1st line he won't finish with above 50% o-zone starts unless PAP is traded or hurt(knock on wood).

In Okposo's 1st full season at the age of 21, and against top 6 pairing competition, he netted 19goals and 52pts while getting top unit PP mins and middle of the team o-zone starts(not being used as an offensive forward at 5-on-5) and while struggling with his shooting percentage. And this is the year where Okposo finished 2nd on the team in scoring, while splitting half the season with JT/MM both in their rookie years, and Bailey/Nielsen. So it's not like he was playing with young JT/MM full time, but he was also used defensively with Nielsen/Bailey. Pretty impressive if you ask me, even more so when Okposo came out heavily on top in corsi stats that year.

After that, the shoulder injury slowed his development, but none the less young Okposo still seemed to be able to put up good corsi numbers and solid offensive stats for a guy that has been used in a checking role and in 2nd PP unit ice time. Struggling with his shot last season and early this season, and he was still a full-season simulated 40pts+ guy last year and a 45pts+ guy this year. Not bad for a "checking" forward, especially given the circumstances and “rehab” from the injury.

And let’s not forget, Okposo was a 7th overall pick for a reason. He is a 2-way forward with solid offensive upside. I know juniors/college isn’t the NHL, but he has been a solid goalscorer and pt producer in all the non-professional hockey leagues he’s been. In high school he potted 47goals in his final season there, in his rookie USHL year he netted 27goals, and in his rookie college year he netted 19goals, good enough for almost 1goal every 2gms. In non-professional hockey, Okposo has been a guy that’s scored around a goal every 2gms, nhl equivalent of a 40goal scorer (which I don’t think he is). So he certainly has goalscoring potential, just likely 20-25goal/yr potential, not elite goalscoring potential. Even this year, his shooting percentage is up and without top line o-zone faceoffs and while only playing a chunk of games on the JT line and on a minimally producing 2nd unit PP he is on the verge of a 19goal season. Pretty impressive given the criticism he’s face, 15game/18% of the season goalless slump to start the season, and situation he’s been playing/used in thus far.

Maybe I just have a lot more faith in Okposo filling PAP’s role out well offensively(not completely) and that we can fill in Okposo's checking line role from within soon(nelson/cizikas/ullstrom maybe). But given numbers and age, I feel I am thinking pretty logical now and damage control if PAP is gone is far from a disaster. I really think people overestimate his loss. Would losing a player like PAP hurt? Yes, but not nearly as much as his numbers this year would suggest. And that's the reason I made a giant fanpost on the subject. And all this is because Okposo is a lot better of a player than people give him credit for, especially given what he’s done and proven at such a young age already.

Even though it might not look like it at point blank or “with the eye test” some people use, advanced stats and running numbers says Okposo can fill-in on the PAP role extremely well, especially given the proof I listed in the PAP fanpost I put up. Okposo can truly fill-in for PAP very well in his role, and finding another checker to fill-in for Okposo and deeper if we have other within-team upgrades isn’t something that hard to do. And without even equating Nino’s or Strome’s or any other rookie’s offensive prowess added to the equation, we should be pretty well off damage control wise if PAP is traded or lost at free agency. So please, don’t under appreciate what we have in Okposo. He may not be as shiny as Moulson or JT or Grabner, but he is still a solid top 6 forward, and young offensively and defensively capable one at that.

Yes, losing a top 6 playmaking forward would hurt, but not nearly as much as one would think. Yes, I think PA is a solid top 6 forward right now, but not nearly as good as his numbers suggest for multiple reasons and his void can be filled out more then people would think in the immediate future:

PAP isn't as good as his numbers this year suggest because:

-It's his contract year. Does anyone really think PAP will play as hard and as good as he has this year for the length of his next contract? Not a chance, partially due to aging and partially for other obvious reasons.

-PAP is playing on the 5th best PP in the NHL. Obviously getting ample PP time next to JT/Moulson/Streit/(and even Nielsen to an extent) has it's perks. And out of all the top 4 PP minute players, PAP has the lowest number of pts. Coincidentally? I don't think so. Moulson/JT/Streit are all better/more-important offensive players then PAP imo. In fact, comparatively to PP toi and taking into account Nielsen being on PP2 for a lot of the early season because of Rolston, Nielsen is similarly effective on the PP to PAP.

-PAP gets top 3 forward/top offensive line zone starts for our team. Now I don't believe the zone start to points correlation equation Neil Greenberg gave is accurate, but I'd say confidently giving someone offensively capable but not necessarily an "offensive dynamo", like Okposo, getting PAP's zonestarts would make him a 5pts/yr higher offensive player.

-PAP scores 40-50% of his goals on the PP and teams haven't prepared for PAP because they've focused on JT ahead of him and PAP hasn't had much NHL exposure. PAP isn't near as much of a goalscoring threat as people would hope and once teams watch more tape on him and figure out his offensive "game", they can gameplan for him better. And just knowing how much of a goalscoring threat he is, they will gameplan for him better, cheat towards the pass when he has the puck, and force him to take "hard-goalscorer" shots when the time comes. Odds are PAP's production goes down a bit because of this. You throw PAP on a 2nd PP unit, he'd be around a 10goal/yr player.

-PAP is the 3rd highest toi forward on the team, just another capable offensive player taking/upgraded-to those extra minutes should at least accumulate a few more pts then they usually do on average.

-PAP is turning 29 in March and is at or has hit his theoretical peak offensive play. It should and likely will only be downhill from here.

-Because of the above reasons, you can't realistically expect PAP to maintain his 65-70pts/yr play. Sure, he could be a 55-65pts player if the dice roll correctly for him in the next couple years. But if you give him a 4-5yr contract, the odds of him being an overall 45pts player averaged over the time of the contract would be more likely then him being a 65pts player over the life of the contract.

If we lose PAP, we could fill the immediate hole better then people realize because:

-Someone will step into his top PP minutes that was on the 2nd unit already. Our 1st PP unit is extremely effective and should be a strength for the next few years with or without PAP. Just flopping someone like KO or Bailey into PA's spot on the 1st PP should be able to fill-in for 75-90%(~80-82% averaged based on numbers) of PAP's pt production there, based on all past performances. So that PP wouldn't lose much effectiveness with PAP gone as most would think. Honestly, even MacDonald could fill in for 75-90% of PAP's PP pt production playing the pt on the 1st PP given his previous pts/second there and a slight effectiveness correlation equated in.

-Based on the above calculations, just throwing someone like Okposo into PAP's role should increase Okposo's yearly average production by 15-25pts. A lot of people don't realize how much of an impact being on a top PP unit with ample ice time, and getting top o-line favorable zone starts can increase/"inflate" ones statistics.

-2 capable offensive players we have that have been used in checking roles(low o-zone starts) this year "could" fill-in for a good portion of pt production that PAP has brought. Okposo and Grabs(Okposo has started being used this way recently though). It's easier to replace a checking forward then it is an offensive forward(although we have the cliental for both), and given our system, you would think any of Cizikas/Nelson/Martin/Lee/Ullstrom(?)/Bailey-even if his future isn't at center, could fill out a solid checking line next to nielsen.

-Strome and Nino are both projected top 6 forwards, odds are 1 of them will fill out into a capable enough top 6 forward within the next few years as PAP would have been over the next few years.

-PAP's a good stickhandler, but Strome has better hands. Nino has solid hands, Nielsen has solid hands, and Bailey has decent hands. All capable of being an entry zone puckhandler for each top 9 line, or even on the PP if need be. Dump and chase isn't a bad move either if need be and is even smart in some cases, lol.

-PAP isn't as good of a puckhandler as you'd think. His takeaway to giveaway ratio is a -15 this season, worst among all forwards on the team, meaning PAP has lost the puck 15 more times then he has taken it away from opponents. Not a quality puck control guy. Moulson and JT both are +23 and +30 respectively in this category and PAP is the only negative takeaway to giveaway forward on the team. Next closest to PAP is Rolston at even strength in this stat.

-PAP gets into more penalty trouble then most forwards on the team. Last year he had 46pim in 81gms, 3rd most minors behind JT and Konopka. This year PAP leads our team with 22minors, 7minors more then Martin who is 2nd on the team with 15minors, and is on the verge of a 32minor/64pim from minors season. And statistically, PAP takes .4 more penalties/60min then he has drawn this year. A bad habit and something that hurts this team more then it helps. Undisciplined maybe? Plays on the proverbial penalty taking edge too much?(as seen by his crosscheck penalty last game) Is a scrappy player? Either way, those are bad things and the outcome is a negative for this/his team.

So yes, we can fill most of the hole PAP would leave offensively in the near future and the evidence is above. Obviously this isn't the end all be all on the topic, just some thoughts and numbers I ran. Discuss.

I know I made a: “Why Frans Nielsen is an above average-great 2nd line center, and capable for that role on even a playoff team” months ago, but since we are talking so much about the future right now, I wanted to express the importance of extending nielsen and keeping him around for the future “cup run”. Starting off by saying, he is only 27yrs old and his 2-way abilities aren’t going to drastically decline for a few years easily, barring major injury.

I know some people "dislike" the idea of Nielsen as a 2nd line center, but the man is honestly by all means a 2nd line center. Being a +13 last year on a basement nhl team, facing top 6 competition, and having excellent corsi numbers, shows by all means the man can be a 2nd line center on a stanley cup team. That also means, Nielsen “can” line up against the Getzlaf’s and Sedin’s of the world and shut them down(as we’ve seen in past games). Nielsen is that good, and if you give him a top 6 checking winger, he can likely perform miracles. Offense this, mumbo jumbo that, Nielsen is an "elite" 2nd line center. He will be extremely valuable to this team's future if we can extend him for 4/5yrs. Everyone says, "Bailey should be the future 2nd line center", I don't see that happening but it could. That said, Bailey would have to become one hell of a player to fill in Nielsen’s shoes. They say Strome is the future 2nd line center, he could be, is a wildcard right now, but that’s a big way’s away and it’s better safe than sorry. Not to mention, it should be at least 2 or 3yrs for Strome to show he’s capable of being a 2nd line center or not. 3rdly, Nielsen is excellent to have around no matter what the circumstances. Nielsen being used in a checking line role allows all other lines to face easier competition. Example: Anisimov on the rangers, a solid checking center, allows Gaborik/Richards to play “3rd line competition”/easier-competition, by taking the toughest forward assignments on the team or another example would be the Nucks Malhotra playing against top line while the Sedins get easier competition to excel at. This also allows Sedins/gaborik-Richards to score more pts/goals vs 3rd lines then they would against opposing top lines. Thus, increasing our offense to another level with opportune use of elite defense. In other words, there is no true logical reason at all to not resign Nielsen for 4-5yrs or “use” him as our 2nd line center given his effectiveness at the position.

Below is the fanpost stuff I am mostly repeating from my previous Nielsen fanpost to show for more evidence:

1-His defensive abilities are ELITE.

Any person eligible for Selke candidate votes is usually a great defensive forward, and Nielsen is no exception. His size does limit him “at times”, but not much. His speed, hands, and smarts make him an excellent shutdown/2-way 2nd line center for even playoff teams. Not to mention, he is an excellent PKer, leading all centers (and forwards for that matter) in shorthanded goals and points last year with 7 and 8 respectably. Calling him a defensive mastermind and shorthanded specialist fits him perfectly. So there is easily a case for Nielsen being one of the best defensive centers/forwards in the NHL.

2-Nielsen is offensively adequate enough to be an above average offensive 2nd line center(and

forward for that matter).

Nielsen had a full season equivalent 15goals/48pts season last year. When compared to the other centers and forwards, he would rank 38th offensively among centers(equivalent to an above-average offensively 2nd line center) or rank 93rd among all forwards(equivalent to a well-above average 2nd line forward offensively or borderline 1st line forward).

3-He isn’t as undersized as people think.

Sure, 6’ 187lbs isn’t average sized for nhl forwards, but did you know that other good top 6 forwards like: M.Ribeiro(6’ 179lbs), M.Grabovski(5’11’’ 183lbs), D.Roy(5’9’’ 184lbs), S.Stamkos(6’1’’ 188lbs), H.Sedin(6’2’’ 188lbs), P.Datsyuk(5’11’’ 194lbs), P.Bergeron(6’2’’ 194lbs), M.Richards(5’11’’ 195lbs), B.Richards(6’ 195lbs), T.Oshie(5’11’’ 195lbs), and J.Pavelski(5’11’’ 195lbs) are similar in size to Nielsen? Pretty good company there size wise. So size should be of little concern as shown by nhl comparable centers.

4-Nielsen’s faceoff ability is of top 6 center quality(albeit it a little sub-par for a 2nd line center last year, but likely average overall).

His 46.2% faceoff win percentage isn’t as bad as it looks. 96th in the NHL in faceoffs for centers(that played more then 60gms last year), and more importantly, 54th in the NHL in faceoffs for centers that played more then 16min/gm last year(cutoff for top 6 centers I’d go with). So that makes Nielsen a bit subpar as a 2nd line center for taking faceoffs, but still a capable 2nd line faceoff center. And to add to this, last year Nielsen had a 50% faceoff win percentage, and 47.2% the year before that. So just looking at Nielsen’s track record, I’d say it’s fair to believe he is around average quality as a 2nd line center for taking faceoffs when he is healthy and on his game.

5-Nielsen has been doing all this against 1st line-in between 2nd and 1st line competition, and Corsi says he's been “ELITE” at it.

Running through his corsi numbers and relative quality of competition, he has faced tough top 6 competition the last 2 seasons and was very successful in doing so. His corsi has been one of the best on the team the last couple years among forwards while facing some of the toughest competition on the team and taking a lot of defensize zone starts. Things that are very good for a top 6 center and shows he deserves the 2nd line center position.

In summary, Nielsen is a great 2nd line center because he is an elite defensive center, above average offensively for the position, isn’t as undersized as you would think, is capable enough at faceoffs to be responsible as a 2nd line center, and has already done all this against top quality competition and succeeded well at doing it(corsi). Anyone doubting Nielsen’s abilities to fulfill a 2nd line center role on a great team should be dismissed. The Great Dane is capable enough overall for the job, and according to numbers is elite enough at it to be a 2nd line center on a Stanley cup team. The "need" for a 2nd line center on this team is overstated with JT/Nielsen as a top 6 center duo, there are a lot more spots on this roster that deserve an upgrade over our 2nd line center position.

All that said, if we can’t resign Nielsen before March/the trade deadline, we need to ship his ass out for compensation. It is a HUGE mistake to let a player of Nielsen’s caliber on a team with no playoff shot to walk for nothing. He is a player team’s move a 1st round pick for. He is a player a team would move a mid-pair D prospect for as a rental. He is a game-changing center. If we don’t extend him by March 1st and he isn’t traded, I will be extremely disappointed in Garth.

Thoughts, comments, etc?

People always seemed to have cried for Konopka in the offseason, earlier this season, and it’s still ongoing. Some dismiss it as people who love “teh gritz” and fighting, but when you look at how bad reasoner is, a case for Konopka being a similar 2-way hockey player to Reasoner can certainly be made.

Reasoner was supposed to be brought in as a 2-way 4th line center that can play better hockey then Konopka and be a defensive/PK/faceoff specialist better then Konopka was. By the eye test and glancing at the numbers, he hasn’t done close to what some expected from him. I will show the comparative numbers below of Konopka’s stats from last year and Reasoner’s stats thus far this year. I will break down this debate of Konopka vs Reasoner as in-depth statistically as I can think of. Here are the comparison numbers below and a conclusion after:

Faceoff win percentage:

Konopka : 57.7%
Reasoner: 53.8%

O-zone start percentage:

Konopka : 30.2%
Reasoner: 48.8%

Corsi Relative Quality of Competition:

Konopka: 0.020
Reasoner: -0.562

Corsi:

Reasoner= -7 corsi
Konopka= -23 corsi

Penalties drawn vs penalties taken per 60min (positive is good, negative is bad):

Konopka : -0.9
Reasoner: -0.3

Fighting majors: (aka, sometimes standing up for your team)

Konopka : 25fights in 82gms
Reasoner: 0fights in 82gm equivalent

Goals/points scored:

Konopka : 2goals/9pts in 82gms
Reasoner: 0goal/12pts 82gm equivalent

Plus/Minus:

Konopka : -14 in 82gms
Reasoner: -39 in 82gm equivalent

Hits:

Konopka : 110hits in 82gms
Reasoner: 52hits in 82gm equivalent

Blocked shots:

Konopka : 52bs in 82gms
Reasoner: 37bs in 82gm equivalent

Giveaway to Takeaway ratio: (Negative bad, Positive Good)

Konopka : +5 in 82gms
Reasoner: -17 in 82gm equivalent

Shots:

Konopka : 56shotsin 82gms
Reasoner: 92shots in 82gm equivalent

TOI:

Konopka : 8:26ES/10:11total
Reasoner: 9:51ES/11:30total

Intangilbes:

Konopka: scrummed more, was very vocal in the media for the team, very vocal in the locker room.
Reasoner: I can’t really think of anything Reasoner brings that can’t be seen on any statistics we have.

In conclusion and broken down into simpler terms this means:

Konopka was, in comparion to Reasoner:

-A better faceoff specialist

-Worse at drawing penalties vs taking penalties

-A lot more willing and better scrapper/fighter, “middleweight enforcer”

-A better goalscorer

-A twice as physical hitter

-A better shotblocker

-A better puck possession player (takeaway to giveaway ratio)

-A more vocal leader on the ice and off the ice

-A better scrummer(lol)

-A more intangibles 4th liner

-Less of a shooter with the puck

-A smarter decision maker with the puck (plus minus is what I’m making this a

judge of, if it was closer I wouldn’t, but this margin is huge enough to make this

distinction)

-Definitely arguably a better 2-way hockey player surprisingly (with nearly 20%

less offensive zone starts and comparatively in terms of rel.quality of competition, Konopka faced weakish 3rd line competition while Reasoner’s been babied so

much you could say he’s facing ahl competition thus far. I’d estimate if there were

“more lines/weaker lines”, you could say Konopka is facing weak 3rd line

competition vs Reasoner’s facing weak 5th line competition. In my calculations,

Konopka being this close in corsi to Reasoner given their o-zone starts and

rel.qualofcompetition weighted is a huge plus for Konopka. Reasoner loses the

debate as a better 2-way hockey player. )

Conclusively right now, it looks like a mistake to have let Konopka go and signed Reasoner in his place. Konopka’s positives outweigh Reasoner’s positives by a good margin so far in their islander tenures. In hindsight, we should have kept Konopka if this is the Reasoner we are going to have to live with for his tenure here, no ifs ands or butts about it. Take this as a fact: “THUS FAR, KONOPKA>REASONER ALL AROUND AS A HOCKEY PLAYER ON OUR TEAM”. So when people yack off for wanting Konopka as die hard gritz fans, think again because there is a very serious case that Konopka would have been a more positive impact player on this team then Reasoner has been thus far. Thoughts and comments?

PS-sorry if the copy and past job didn't come out great.

A question I wanted to ask everyone here about and get their opinions on. Which player, and players in order too if possible do you think would hurt this team the most if they got hurt for the whole season?

Main Candidates are likely:

Al Montoya

John Tavares

Michael Grabner

Matt Moulson

PA Parenteau

Frans Nielsen

Mark Streit

Travis Hamonic

Andrew MacDonald

And out of those candidates, I'd like you to pick 1 and give a reasoning why you chose them. Also, I'd like you to rank them in importance to this team/how much their loss would hurt the team from most to least. And you can also give reasoning for that. I just wondered what everyone was thinking here and maybe we'd have a little interesting discussion from this. Poll below too.

I really wanted to make a reply in the Bailey 25U25 thread, but I just created too much information to put it in a single repy so I made this fanpost.

I think if we are gonna talk about Bailey, we should try and speculate on as much as possible.

First, let’s try to make some NHL comparions to Bailey’s career and talk a little about them:

Similar players with similar nhl paths and a similar age to Bailey:

Do you consider Kyle Turris more of a bust/leaning-towards then a good pick?

Do you consider James Sheppard more of a bust/leaning-towards then a good pick 3/4yrs post draft?

If Strome 4yrs ahead hadn’t surpassed 35pts while having played 3 full nhl seasons, is he a bust/leaning-torwards bust?

All similar comparisons, without the Bailey name factor. What do you think about them?

What do you think of Bailey 3yrs in compared to Sam Gagner 3yrs post draft?

What do you think of Bailey 3yrs in compared to Voracek 3yrs post draft?

What do you think of Bailey 3yrs in compared to Brandon Sutter 3yrs post draft?

What do you think of Bailey 3yrs in compared to Okposo 3yrs post draft?

All fair comparisons and what do all of them lean towards: Bailey progressing noticeably slower then he should, Bailey likely being more of a bust as an nhl player then a success(let alone as a top 10 pick), and Bailey likely having a lower overall ceiling then everyone expected. Never mind the top 10 draft status, he is extremely likely NEVER gonna live up to that. So take that out of the equation when we evaluate him.

Let’s start from his draft year, nice totals but nothing out of this world, I’d say given his draft year junior performance and scouting reports, projecting him as a 20goal/50pts 2-way center is completely fair, no?

Then we can concede he was rushed to the nhl, but was he really thrown to the lions? Let’s run through his relcorsiqualityofcompetition for each year to find out:

08/09: 3rd line competition/8th-toughest among regular forwards on the team

09/10: weak 3rd line competition/sheltered/10th toughest among regular forwards on team

10/11: 3rd line overall competition

So overall, Bailey has been far from thrown to the wolves. Yeah, 3rd line competition was likely too much for bailey in his rookie year, but 3yrs later, he’s still playing the same 3rd-line/low-

pressure/lower-competition role and is still struggling noticably.  

Bailey refuses to shoot the puck for one reason or another, thus leading me to believe he’ll never be a 20goalscorer unless he has some higher-end playmaker on his line force-feeding him scoring chances, and even then it might be questionable. The more and more I think and look over bailey and his “game” and his numbers, the more and more I realize he will likely never be that 20goal scorer. His 16goal year was likely somewhat a fluke given his high shooting percentage and low amount of shots while playing with Okposo.  Bailey doesn’t like to shoot the puck for one reason or another, and he likes trying to create-opportunites/make-passes then he does to shoot the puck himself. That one opportunity for a one-timer from point blank in the Pitt game was a good example of this. That was an excellent opportunity for a goal, a should be 1-timer, but he just didn’t pull the trigger like he should have.

So on to Bailey’s passing/assist-offense. It’s clear, this needs to be his bread and butter for him to be a successful offensive player. Bailey doesn’t have Strome-esque hands, so for bailey, most of his assists comes from his smarts/creativity. Then again, his OHL numbers “may” have been inflated from lots of PP time and not a lot of 5-on-5 success and he may have never been the offensive threat we’d hoped him to be, but I can’t find that information. His stats also may have been inflated from him “being in the zone”, as we saw in early 10’. A playmaking center is “expected” to create opportunities for his linemates, not the other way around, and Bailey just hasn’t shown that at the nhl level yet. It worries me, because maybe he just can’t read the flow/game/linemates to do this. I don’t know.

Overall, I still think he has decent offensive potential in him, but the more I watch the more I doubt he still has the abilitiy in him to do it, especially if he seems to have only 2 modes: force stupid things playing at 120% or play overly cautious. Neither of those things lead to success offensively, so he may never fulfill his potential there.

Defensively, he is not bad, but he is far from a good checking center. You want to see what a good checking center is, look at Nielsen/Kesler/Bolland/Malhotra/Staal. Can Bailey become a good checking center? Maybe, but let’s not get in over our heads.  Just because Bailey’s offense isn’t panning out, doesn’t mean he automatically becomes Malhotra/Handzus when he focuses more on defense(if he isn’t already). 1st-off, Bailey is barely producing 25-30pts seasons against 3rd line competition, you turn him into a checking center against top 6 competition right now and

I’d bet money on him barely throwing up ~20pts seasons while being very unsuccessful in that role. Wayne Merrick, nice name to throw out, logical comparion? Not close right now.

To be a “good” defensive/checking center, you need to:

1.Be good at taking faceoffs(at least 50%): Bailey right now is not there, he’s not really close right now.

2.Be adequate offensively while being able to shutdown opposing team’s top 6 forwards: Bailey can’t shutdown 3rd liners successfully right now, let alone make himself barely adequate

offensively. He ain’t close yet.

3.Smart with the puck on your stick and good at “takeaways”: Bailey has shown the ability to do this, all he has to do is keep it up and not make stupid decisions with the puck.

4.Play with some fire, play every shift hard hard hard, somewhat agitatively, and never shy from contact: I don’t know. Bailey does play hard, but unorganized hard. And I just don’t see Bailey having or adopting those agitative qualities that make Kesler and Staal and Bolland overly effective.

5.Size and speed helps: Bailey is adequate there.

6.Be decent along the boards: Not sure how to rank Bailey there, adequate maybe? Weak? I certainly wouldn’t call Bailey a board winning battler.

Simple evaluation, you can’t just turn any adequate to slightly above adequate defensive center/forward into a checking center because their offense doesn’t pan out as expected for a number of reasons as stated. Could Bailey become a good defensive/checking center? If so, I believe it’s gonna take 2-3yrs, but I’m not enthusiastic at all at that happening. He’ll never reach Fransian level and likely barely be average if he does develop some fire and better faceoff/offensive skills.

In conclusion, Bailey is a player that may never be good enough at any role to make himself worthy of a regular nhl position. Sure he is only 22, but 3yrs of NHL experience is 3yrs of should-be growth and advancement, but in the past 3yrs Bailey has made very little to no progress(maybe backwards) offensively, but has got a little bit better defensively(nothing amazing, he is not great defensively yet).  But right now, he’s not good enough offensively for a scoring role

and he’s not good enough defensively for a checking role, he’s a sub-par 3rd liner, arguably a 4th

line forward. I don’t know if he will ever find his role, but offensively it looks and I feel like he may never get there, and if he does it will likely be from optimal conditions (1st line PP time,

playing alongside a great goalscorer(if Comeau wasn’t already good enough), or getting a ton of ice time). And defensively, I don’t think he has the abilities to make himself a good checking center. He’s still young, but I don’t know. I think it’s around time to decide what Bailey wants to do with himself or Cap to decide his future. Make him a defensive center or try to elevate his offense somehow. Leaving him mediocre in both categories “at best” is best for no one. But I have little faith in Bailey turning this around because I believe it’s somewhat a mental/guidance issue and somewhat a less-potential-then-expected issue. And longterm, I don’t think he should be a center, I think he is over his head in a center position, if he moved to wing fulltime, maybe he can even turn his game around(offensively and defensively) in a less pressure role with someone else centering his line.

Some Draft scouting reports:

Areas to improve: "He needs to add a little bit more grit to his game, he is a tireless worker and if he can get in there and grind it out with some of the other players that he currently plays against in the OHL, that will be good experience for when he reaches the NHL."

“Weakness: Skating needs to improve if he is to play the same solid two-way
game at the next level. He also could use an added physical element as he
frequently backs off his aggressive play when pushed around. Improved strength
could go along way to improving both these areas.”

“Skating and competitiveness will need to improve to move to the next level.”

Not want you want to really hear about his weaknesses. “Not Gritty”, “Backs away from Physical challenges/aggressive play” “Needs to get stronger” “Needs to be more competitive”. Pretty much, everything we see(for the most part) that is wrong with Bailey’s game. Isn’t it somewhat ironic that his draft day weaknesses are very similar to his weaknesses today? While you could also add: offensive production to that list. I think he may be a lost cause. If these were his weaknesses in the past/juniors and they are still his weaknesses 4yrs forward, there may be no fixing him.

Thoughts and opinions?

PS-Please refrain from posting Bailey has XXpts in the nhl in his draft class and is XX stats in his draft class ranked. He was rushed, he’s played more nhl games than “ultimately” every other forward in his defense heavy 1st round draft class. Those numbers mean nothing.

Have all the Islanders Yashin jerseys been burned? Or is it a sin to still wear one? I never see them around anymore.

Would it be awkward to wear or make an Islanders Chara jersey with a C on it proudly and repeatedly? We did draft the man and play him for 4 seasons, but he's a "real" Bruin/Senator.

If you've been to the coliseum, you know the guy that has the season tix, gold hair, and rangers suck "rangers" kids jersey across his ass all game. How hard do you think it was for him to customize it? How old do you think it is?

Is Andy Sutton unquestionably the hardest checker the Isles ever had? I know Witt could light people up and Kaspar did his thing as Webb and others were solid, but just the giant 245lbs wrecking ball sutton could make himself was incredible. I know we had Chara, but I don't recall Chara destroying people as well as Sutton did. We all saw the playoffs hit where he almost killed someone right: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u18CBH2s7-4 and he has hurt others: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRPC3itAQU8  Damn I miss having a big hitting d-man on the isles that lines people up.

Fisherman jerseys, do they deserve a comeback? Not now, but say like a 20th anniversary fisherman jersey or something pimped out with an angry fisherman or something, redid nicely. We are a team all about heritage right, and it'd be hilarious, or at minimum a hilarious 3rd jersey. Or just to give it to the smurfs fans, make it the fisherman standing proudly over a knocked out ranger or something as the main center logo.

Since they have Gremlin jerseys for Grabs sold at the NVMC, why not a Gremlin Night or Gremlin appreciation night for the kids? Or at minimum a showing of Gremlins 1 on the Jumbotron 1 night for all the fans and the kids.

If you had a choice to go to Vegas with Wang or Snow, who would you pick and why? What would be some of the activities you guys participate in there?

Who wins a fight in prime vs prime, Clark Gillies vs Trevor Gillies?

Serious question, is Butchie senile or just a doofus?

If Howie and Butchie played a game of Scrabble, how many misspelled and made-up words does Butchie have by the end of the game?

Who wins this race, Grabner on Nyquill vs Nielsen on Cocaine?

How many games till the next occurrence of Nielsen's thugery? Should Briere pray for his life?

Martin St.Louis, is he legally a midget or a dwarf?

Kvasha and Jurcina get into a fight, who wins and how long into the fight is the first punch thrown?

How much would you pay to see Milbury fight Cherry? How does it go down and who wins?

Matt Moulson, is he Michael Jackson's half-brother?

Trent Hunter, was he in the movie 300 or not?

Does Travis Hamonic have more toughness than Eaton, Mottau, Staios, and Jurcina combined?

Who wins a team drinking contest Jurcina or Trevor Gillies?

Is Matt Martin secretly a spanish conquistador?: http://islanders.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8474709 

Why hasn't Capuano gotten a commercial deal with the men's big and tall store yet?

You are stuck on a desolate island with only one person, your choices are Bailey or Comeau, who do you pick and why?

If there were one current islander you'd get to hang out with for a week, who would you pick and why? What would you want to do with them?

Is it a coincidence that Gretzky(the great one) and Frans look alike? I think not.

Always with the Yashin comeback talk, why have we never tried to make amends with Palffy? The man is 39 this year and hasn't played hockey in a year, but we should have done something. He was a 40goal/80pts player in his prime, and I bet if we went after him last year or this year, he would still be able to net 20goals/40pts and be a decent 2-way player. He was an elite talent. I would have preferred him over Pandolfo this year and Schremp last year, but that's besides the point. I wish we would have pursued him the second he was thinking about coming out of retirement 4yrs ago. Damn I miss him.

What would you trade to get this man on your team for the next 3-5yrs?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0j8XCkQz60

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkmqJHANjgk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93bpmaBmYPg&feature=related 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_c5bNXaVfQ 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-FAhQYqomU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1yVmLXai8c 

I'm just a little tired of the DP debating and this and that, so I just want to point out Rick's history in net "before" he got hurt.

The stats: http://islanders.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8468481#&navid=nyi-keymatch 

His 02/03 stint, 1st year in the NHL was only 10gms and nothing to talk about because it showed nothing and explained nothing. So we start with his 1st "full" nhl year, 03/04, and go from there:

03/04- .911 save percentage  l  50starts l  5 Shutouts  l 23wins  l Overall=~Average NHL Starter

Isles finished: 8th in the East

DP RANKINGS AMONG NHL STARTING GOALIES(50+ starts):

Save Percentage: 14th in the NHL  Shutouts-8th in the NHL 

05/06- .900 save percentage  l  63starts l  1 Shutout  l 30wins l Overall=Slightly Sub-par(?) NHL starter

Isles finished: 12th in the East

DP RANKINGS AMONG NHL STARTING GOALIES(50+ starts):

Save Percentage-10th in NHL  Shutouts-29th in the NHL

This year confused me a little. It was "the return" year, where there seemed to be a lot of subpar goalie numbers. DP's .900 wasn't low among NHL starters, but there were a couple 40gm+ starters ahead of him not included in the starters. Honestly, you could consider this an average NHL starter year, but I'll throw it into slightly sub-par.

06/07- .919 save percentage  l  62starts l  5 Shutouts  l 32wins  l Overall= Above-Average Starter(Top 5/Top 8 this season)

Isles finished: 8th in the East

DP RANKINGS AMONG NHL STARTING GOALIES(50+ starts):

Save Percentage-3rd in the NHL  Shutouts-6th in the NHL

THEN, DP had Major Hip Surgery in the 07 offseason, to fix a torn labrum in his left hip. The beginning of major problems.



When put into context, it's evident that DP has "never" been a bad nhl starting goalie his pre-injury career, so this means, he got a lot of crap for nothing before the injuries struck. Has DP been amazing? No, overall a slightly above average goaltender. And then let's not forget, DP was still maturing before he got hurt! And for the most part, he did all this on mediocre to sub-par teams in his early career. Pretty impressive.

Just to point out also, Wang didn't make a mistake putting a lot of faith in Ricky. He had shown at the time that he was giving every indication of becoming a top 10 goalie in the NHL in the future. It just so happened he hit a few injury bumps (OK, a lot) that derailed his likely great future and career as a top goalie in net for the islanders. It's very sad honestly.

So please, stop acting like RDP was never gonna be something special, he gave every indication he was, it's just that the injury bug hit hard before he could, 3yrs+ hard.

That said, who knows what to make of him. Some think he will never be the same, some think he could become a usable NHL starter. I have faith. DP is still one of the hardest training netminders in the NHL, whether it shows or not. He's gone through so many surgeries that a ton of players would have thrown in the towel from. DP had the talent level and progression of becoming a top 10 goalie  in the nhl, so he doesn't have to get back to the level he once was to be usable, all he has to do is be passable, which is a real possibility. All I ask is to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Everyone expected him to come back rusty last year, some for a month, some for a couple months, some for the whole season. And in that time last year, DP showed he could be a good starter in a stretch of games while playing in front of an injury destroyed team. Don't go off "usual" numbers or "common" things with DP and his career, because he is far from the run of the mill situation. Just give DP a chance, he's the healthiest he's been in years and he may surprise you. That's all I ask, don't write him off before the season starts because it would be extremely unfair to him and his commitment to this team for now.

SO PLEASE, just give DP a clean slate to start the season.

(You don't have to believe anything, all I ask you to do is give him a clean slate. I honestly think DP will come back with a .910+ save percentage this year and win the starter job. It may sound farfetched, but it's just my belief and guess.)

Just looking at the salary floor situation, it's hard to look and not think that Garth is going to do something before the season or early in the season to help us with our cap floor situation. Right now, without Bailey signed, with Nino on the team, and carrying 8 d-men/3goalies, we are barely $760k above the floor. So in essence, any contract given to Bailey(or not) should keep us above the cap floor. 

Garth also said early in free agency that he was trying to acquire a top 4 d-man, and I see no reason why he still wouldn't be trying. Last year, we started the season a couple million above the floor, which is the smart thing to do for trade/promotion-demotion reasons, and was actually very helpful in allowing us to keep Nino in the minors and make the Roloson/Wiz trades for picks/players.

So now on to the question:

Do you think Garth will add another player somehow to keep us enough above the cap to have flexibility involving trades or ahl/nhl demotions throughout the season/before the season?

What does this mean, right now this means with our cap situation:

-Nino MUST(or Strome if signed) be on the team come opening day for us to be above the salary floor. Whether NHL ready or not(which is debatable right now), which is not something you like to hear. If he knows he doesn't have to earn his spot, then he "could" relax too much and not have the pressure he "should" to be all he can be. But that last part is guessing. 

-Higher cap players(usually around $2mil+) can't be moved off the nhl roster through trade or demotion if they deserve so. Eaton likely can't be traded away for a 3rd round pick easy if we are doing bad and he's playing good, Eaton can't be demoted to the AHL if he plays horrible after surgery because of his salary, DP can't be ahled if he plays horribly, DP can't be bought out(and I advise against it) if need be, and Comeau/Rolston can't be traded for (example) anything with a salary similar to their's. It could possibly even mean that ahl players that deserve a promotion have trouble being promoted due to low salary: Donovan/Katic/Reese/Klementyev could all have trouble being brought to the nhl level unless their demotee's have a similar salary to their's(barring injuries for LTIR).

But if Garth adds more cap/another higher payroll player this could mean that all the possible negatives above could be reversed or possible now. Ideally, a GM would like that flexibility for the reasons stated above and more.

So in essence, there are a number of possible problems occuring if we enter or accumulate 10gms before Garth adds salary to the team. Is it necessary for Garth to add salary to the team? Not at all, we are over the cap. But could it create a number of difficulties/issues if Garth doesn't add more salary to the team? Yes. And that is the reason I think there is a good chance Garth is going to add some salary to this team before 10gms of the season pass.

Opinions/comments?

1-His defensive abilities are high-end.

Any person eligible for Selke candidate votes is usually a great defensive forward, and Nielsen is no exception. His size does limit him “at times”, but not much. His speed, hands, and smarts make him an excellent shutdown/2-way 2nd line center for even playoff teams. Not to mention, he is an excellent PKer, leading all centers (and forwards for that matter) in shorthanded goals and points last year with 7 and 8 respectably. Calling him a defensive mastermind and shorthanded specialist fits him perfectly. So there is easily a case for Nielsen being one of the best defensive centers/forwards in the NHL.

2-Nielsen is offensively adequate enough to be an above average offensive 2nd line center(and forward for that matter).

Nielsen had a full season equivalent 15goals/48pts season last year. When compared to the other centers and forwards, he would rank 38th offensively among centers(equivalent to an above-average offensively 2nd line center) or rank 93rd among all forwards(equivalent to a well-above average 2nd line forward offensively or borderline 1st line forward).

3-He isn’t as undersized as people think.

Sure, 6’ 187lbs isn’t average sized for nhl forwards, but did you know that other good top 6 forwards like: M.Ribeiro(6’ 179lbs), M.Grabovski(5’11’’ 183lbs), D.Roy(5’9’’ 184lbs), S.Stamkos(6’1’’ 188lbs), H.Sedin(6’2’’ 188lbs), P.Datsyuk(5’11’’ 194lbs), P.Bergeron(6’2’’ 194lbs), M.Richards(5’11’’ 195lbs), B.Richards(6’ 195lbs), T.Oshie(5’11’’ 195lbs), and J.Pavelski(5’11’’ 195lbs) are similar in size to Nielsen? Pretty good company there size wise. So size should be of little concern as shown by nhl comparable centers.

4-Nielsen’s faceoff ability is of top 6 center quality(albeit it a little sub-par for a 2nd line center last year, but likely average overall).

His 46.2% faceoff win percentage isn’t as bad as it looks. 96th in the NHL in faceoffs for centers(that played more then 60gms last  year), and more importantly, 54th in the NHL in faceoffs for centers that played more then 16min/gm last year(cutoff for top 6 centers I’d go with). So that makes Nielsen a bit subpar as a 2nd line center for taking faceoffs, but still a capable 2nd line faceoff center. And to add to this, last year Nielsen had a 50% faceoff win percentage, and 47.2% the year before that. So just looking at Nielsen’s track record, I’d say it’s fair to believe he is around average quality as a 2nd line center for taking faceoffs when he is healthy and on his game.

5-Nielsen has been doing all this against 1st line-in between 2nd and 1st line competition, and Corsi says he's been doing it really well.

Running through his corsi numbers and relative quality of competition, he has faced tough top 6 competition the last 2 seasons and was very successful in doing so. His corsi has been one of the best on the team the last couple years among forwards while facing some of the toughest competition on the team and taking a lot of defensize zone starts. Things that are very good for a top 6 center and shows he deserves the 2nd line center position.

In summary, Nielsen is a great 2nd line center because he is an excellent defensive center, above average offensively for the position, isn’t as undersized as you would think, is capable enough at faceoffs to be responsible as a 2nd line center, and has already done all this against top quality competition and succeeded well at doing it(corsi). Anyone doubting Nielsen’s abilities to fulfill a 2nd line center role on a great team should be dismissed. The Great Dane is capable enough overall for the job. Discuss, vote, and comment.

I thought about this after the LitterBoxCats at the Panther forum here predicted us finishing in the top 5 in goals scored next year, which is a interesting and puzzling at 1st glance. Now, I don't believe we will be that good offensively, but let's look to see how far off they are. Last year, we were 15th in the NHL in goals scored with 229, behind the Blues in 10th with 240, and the Bruins with 246 in 5th. Now let's go for the key addittions and subtractions next year for our team:

Main Addittions:
-Streit
-1/2 year more of Okposo, who should be at 100% for the whole year
-Rolston (at minimum random 4th liner/Schremp's upgrade)
-Reasoner (Konopka's upgrade)
-Possibly Niederreiter

Main Subtractions:
-Konopka (hurt us on the ice a lot more then helped)
-Weight (barely played)
-Hunter (barely played)
-Wisniewski (only played 32gms last year)

Looking at the fine print, I don't think that we are that far off with to think that with our youngsters getting a year more mature/better and the addittions of Reasoner, Rolston, and Streit to the lineup(100% Okposo full-time) that we will score 11goals+ more then last year and make ourselves a top 10 offensive team. It's just weird to think that we can become noticably better offensively by just bolstering our bottom 6, having a 100% full game Okposo, and getting Streit back. Even if a couple players take a step back, we still have Tavares/Okposo/Bailey/Grabner(not sure with getting notice more, but who knows) whom should all theoretically get better. That should be one hell of an offense(injuries aside, knock on wood). But will that offense be enough to overcome our defense/goalie situation?

Maybe I am understating our playoff chances with the need for a top 4 d-man to put us over the top into a "real" playoff team/should be projected top 8 East team. But maybe we don't need that d-man with Wishart maturing and DeHaan/Donovan coming into their own, or maybe we do because this is their ahl break-in/up-to-speed season and expecting them to be reliable nhlers is asking way too much(especially reliable top 4 d-men). But I'd still argue our defense is sub-par and average at best with Streit coming off an injury, a-mac coming back from an injury, Hamonic still young, and eaton/mottau coming back from surgery. There is a lot, and too much imo, of relying on players coming back from injury. If healthy though, Streit is a great #1 d-man, A-mac is a solid #2 d-man, Hamonic is a solid #3 d-man, and the combo of Eaton/Jurcina/Mottau/Wishart should make a good bottom pair. But that still leaves us with a big hole for that 21-22min+ top 4 d-man that will either be a shutdown pairing guy with a-mac/hamonic or be an offense 1st d-man with solid defensive(but not necessarily high-end). A problem it is, especially given our injury issues of last year/going into next season(rehabbing d-men).

Then their is the goalie situation, which I don't want to kill everyone's hopes over, but Montoya having a .921 save percentage in 18games started is nothing really special. Good for a backup? Yes, but not something you'd expect him to carry over 40 starts if asked or even argued to do over 50gms+ as the #1 goalie, especially given how much this guy has been a headcase in the past. Ask any goalie how much a toll 50-60starts will take on your body? lol. I'd pray for a .915 out of Montoya over 50gms in a great season, which would put him around the average SV% for a starting/#1 goalie. Not saying I'd expect it though, especially coming back from surgery. Then their is the DP situation, and a lot of you are pessimistic on him, rightfully so given his performance. But I think he "could" have a nice .910+ season this year "if" he can stay healthy, especially after throwing up an .886 SV% in 26 starts last year. .910+ in a backup role for him would be a tremendous step forward him, even more so if he could do .910+ in a full season(if need be or if he is given the job/earned it). Not saying it's expected but who knows, "if" DP ever gets "near" 100% again of his old self, he could very well be able to throw up a .910 save percentage over the course of a full season, but that's a big "if". Nabakov: overrated, out of shape, old, and annoyed. Expect him as a lockerroom/on-ice problem or traded before the season starts. Mikko still needs ahl time as seen last year, and Poulin is coming off surgery. Overall, I'd say expect average goaltending at best and subpar overall goaltending expected(with montoya being released as a real possibility if he becomes a headcase again). Above average would be a huge "unexpected" breath of fresh air.  

All I do know is that looking at things, our offense should be top 10/great(which is gonna be really fun to watch), our PK should be top 10/excellent(especially with Grabs getting more PK time and Reasoner added as a faceoff/PK specialist), our powerplay should at least go up to average or average+(with Streit back and Rolston added), and our goalie/defense will be our big question marks with projected average at best play and expected overall slightly sub-par play(or worse, for now with garth not making anymore moves). But the main question is, will our offense and special teams be enough to overcome our projected goalie/defensive "issues" and get us into the playoffs? That's the million dollar question for now. But if we can add that defensive/offensive top 4 d-man garth said he was looking for, I think we should be a near lock for that 8th/7th spot in the East barring injuries. Me personally, I think we are a borderline playoff team going into next year, and barring any month-multiple month injuries to a difference making player-top 9/top 4(for most teams, expected), I think we become a bubble team that just misses the playoffs. As we sit now, my brain says we are likely gonna miss the playoffs barely(but still surprise teams), but my heart says we are gonna make the playoffs barely. Not something I want, I hope garth still has that 1 move to make. 

Discuss and Thoughts?

Signing Scott Hannan doesn't mean we can't try and trade for anyone. I think Jack Hillen is a road we aren't exploring, if Garth wanted to sign him, I think he would have brought him back already, and arguably Hannan is a better candidate for the top 4.

Hannan will bring defenisve security to our top 4, flexibility with our shutdown pair(we can move A-mac or Hamonic to play with Mark Streit if we want, and I'd suggest it). Before last year, Hannan has also been given lots of PK time (imagine strengthening that even more? lol) and really tough assignments. Doing that in Colorado, he's averaged 22min/gm for 3 straight years playing against tough competition in a shutdown role. He can play that role really well apparently. And he brings even more size to our blueline at a big 6'1'' 225lbs.

Sure he is 32, but I think we can rely on him for a year or 2 taking tough defensive roles (especially since his style isn't overly damaging. He does block a lot of shots, but he doesn't throw many hits). I think we should sign him for security/depth at minimum because he does solidfy our top 4 if Garth fails looking for that trade. What's the worst that happens? Mottau is waived?

Thoughts? It's not like this stops garth from making that move for a top 4.

Rumor has it that the Preds and Shea Weber are still far apart on a contract, so I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to arbitration. Recently becoming a Norris finalist and having one of the most ferocious and fairly accurate slapshots in the nhl, while being one of the best 2-way d-men in the nhl, a giant physical force, team-1st player, a captain, and one of the best d-men in the nhl, he is do for a raise from his $5mil/yr past contract.

Just for some cap numbers, right now there are 8 d-men in the nhl making $6mil-$7.2mil/yr in cap hits, 19 d-men making $5mil/yr+ in cap hits, and 40 d-men making $5mil/yr+ in cap hits. Salaries wise, there are 13 d-mem making $6mil-$10mil(ehrhoff, lol) this year, 25 making $5mil+ this year, and 45 d-men making $4mil+ this year. Obviously, top 10 d-men are marketing for, but this is a bit different because Weber is a RFA, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. But a fair market value for Weber given recent contracts would make Weber easily "worth" $6.5mil+ in today's market, especially given his age and intangibles.

Now on to 25year old Weber's numbers this past year, very impressive across the board:
-10th among points for d-men with 48pts(in a defense heavy system)
-4th among goals for d-men with 16goals (in a defense heavy system)  
-9th among PPgoals for d-men with 6PPgoals
-3rd among SHgoals for d-men with 1SHgoal
-6th among GWgoals for d-men with 3GWgoals
-7th among ESpts for d-men with 30ESPpts
-8th among TOI for d-men with 25:19/gm
-6th among hits for d-men with 211hits
-84th among blocked shots for d-men with 113bs
-2nd among takewaways for d-men with 62
-26th among PPtoi for d-men with 3:38/gm
-4th among weight for d-men that play 20min/gm+ at 234lbs :)

What do you guys think Shea Weber will get for a 1yr deal if he goest to arbitration?

Fixed formatting.

Just running through some numbers of players, I find it really surprising how much people are overvaluing players cost and salary wise. I think we should really have a discussion on this, because I believe we may think that costs of players are above what they should be, even with a rising market. Here's a link to the top salary players and you can search around for better listings or longer lists somehow(I'm too tired to look):

http://www.capgeek.com/leaders.php?type=CAP_HIT

But just one quick observation based on running through some cap hits, it looks to me like top line forwards "should" only on average make around $5mil/yr. And a another small quick one, #1 d-men should only be making $5mil/yr+ on average, not the lower d-men, some examples: the Paul Martin's, the Rozsival's, the Komisareks(4.5mil is overpaying even if he was a middle pair guy), and definitely not the Ballard's. I'm too tired to go in-depth here on everything, but will do in the near future(tomorrow probs).

What do you think? and Discuss.

Here are some trade proposals I have made in spare time for fun. Would you do them? Why or why not? Do you think they make sense from both sides? And just whatever you want to say about them or the players involved. These are just some of my ideas to pull great players from bad rebuilding teams.

Trade A:

Isles get:

Ales Hemsky

Oilers get:

Parenteau

+ Our 2 2nd rounders this year "or" our 1st rounder next year

Trade B:

Isles get:

Spezza

Senators get:

Bailey

Comeau

+Our 2 2nd rounders this year

+Our 4th rounder this year

Trade C:

Isles get:

Tyutin

Blue Jackets get:

Mottau

+Our late 2nd rounder

Trade D: The Blockbuster because I can :)

Isles get:

Shea Weber signed to a 6yr 39mil contract (6.5mil/yr)

Predators get:

Next year's 1st rounder

Comeau

Rakhshani

Wishart

OR:

The Preds could take the compensation package of 2 1st rounders, 1 2nd rounder, and 1 3rd rounder. Their choice.

So what do you think?

Isles fan here that's wants to hear a serious debate on this topic. To me, it's a very interesting topic in which I can't and don't wanna pick a winner on. I've ran through stats, corsi info, time on ice info, quality of competition, linemates, the works.

I heard this argument get brought up on another site and it's going to start a little discussion on LH. But I know you guys are extremely knowledgable and incredibly good at arguments and seeing every possible side and thought on them.

I was just running through things, some bland points I have found out:

-Both face similar quality of competition
-Both have similar capable linemates
-Frans is a great defensive forward
-Grabovski is a great offensive forward
-Frans is a sub-par/average offensive forward
-Grabovski looks to be averagish defensively
-Both have similar relative corsi’s, but Grabovski is better
-But, Grabovski played on a better corsi team, but not by a lot

It’s really too close to make a call on, so I don’t want to. I really want you guys to debate it and see what you think. I'm sure you guys know who Frans Nielsen is, but for those who don't, here's a little bit before you look into stuff:

-Dark-knight Selke candidate annually

-Playmaker of sorts, but far from a goal scorer

-Great PKer, whom scores a solid amount of goals from PKing

-Very intelligent player

-And if you guys didn't know, plays on a line with Okposo and Grabner

Please do this objectionally as possible. I brought this to you guys because I know you can do this and really wanted to see what you guys think. Thanks.