SB Nation User Blog: PDXTai

It's a 3 game season

PDXTai — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:58:40 -0000

Looking ahead at the schedule and some of the advanced stat sites I believe the success of our regular season hinges on the next three games: Redskins, Chargers and the Giants. Go 3-0 and we have a bye in the first round. 0-3 and we'll be watching the playoffs at home. Something in-between is most likely with the Charger game being the most important.

First, a quick look at our remaining schedule with expected win percentages from nfl-forecast.com:

83% @ Washington

70% San Diego

76% NY Giants

95% @ KC

40% @ Indy

95% Oakland

60% @ Philly

95% KC

Looking at the last 5 games, it's not tough to see that we have 3 gimmes and two tougher games. 60% chance of us winning @ Philly seems generous and Indy is just plain great so for this analysis, I'm going to assume we go 3-2 over these 5 games.

Now, let's take a quick look at the expected win totals for the AFC playoff contenders from coolstandings.com

13.5 Indy

11.7 New England

11.5 Pittsburgh

10.8 Cincinnati

9.8 Denver

9.7 San Diego

What this says to me is that you need 13-14 wins for the top seed (I think Indy has this sewn up). 12 wins gets you the 2 seed and a first round bye. 10-11 wins and you get a division win. 9 wins means you miss the playoffs.

So, assuming we go 3-2 over our last 5, we'll be 9-4 outside of the three games coming up. 3-0 means 12 wins and a likely first round bye. 2-1 or 1-2 should give us the division and a home playoff game. 0-3 means no playoffs.

Of course, the game with San Diego is the most critical. If we win that one, beat the doormats, but lose every other game, we'll still be 10-6 and have the tie breaker over the Chargers. They would need to go 6-1 over their other games to pass us.

Looking at these three games, I think we beat Washington and drop one of San Diego or Giants. That gives us a projected final record of 11-5 which should win us the division.

So, to sum up, I think we'll end up being a 3 or 4 seed in the playoffs unless we go 3-0 over these next three games.

Go Broncos!

Josh Hamilton likes coke and fake boobs

PDXTai — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 04:32:22 -0000

Josh Hamilton likes coke and fake boobs

From deadspin. Back in March, Josh went to a bar, got loaded and started doing body shots off the local hotties. Money quote:

"The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona."

Slightly NSFW. Whipped cream being licked off cleavage.

There's more schadenfreude at lonestarball.com Look here.

Screw the Angels

PDXTai — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 05:43:48 -0000

Screw the Angels

Twins with a 5-3 lead, heading into the bottom of the 9th:

- J. Nathan relieved M. Guerrier
- B. Abreu walked
- K. Morales flied out to deep center
- M. Napoli hit by pitch, B. Abreu to second
- E. Aybar flied out to right
- G. Matthews Jr. singled to center, B. Abreu scored, K. Morales to third
- H. Kendrick singled to second, K. Morales scored, E. Aybar to second
- R. Willits grounded out to shortstop

Ackley ho!

PDXTai — Fri, 22 May 2009 22:58:19 -0000

Ackley ho!

Lefty sock? Check
Patient hitter? Check
Works on his game? Check

Why does it feel like there's no way this guy ever wears a Mariner's uniform?