I don't have a lot to add, but I'd like to present the 2011 BsRized standings through June 30 (without commentary). Team-level Base Runs were generated using the following formula in conjunction with data from Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference:

A = H + BB + HBP - HR - 0.5*IBB

B = [1.4×TB - 0.6×H - 3×HR + 0.1×(BB + HBP - IBB) + 0.9×(SB - CS - GIDP)]×1.1

C = AB - H + CS + GIDP

D = HR

BsR = A*B/(B+C) + D

The team-level Base Runs were used in the win% estimator PythagenPat to compile the standings.

NL East

Continue reading this post »

2011 payroll: $87,442,583

Breakdown:

Free Agent-eligible

Brian Roberts: $10,000,000
Vladimir Guerrero: $8,000,000
Derrek Lee: $7,250,000
Mike Gonzalez: $6,000,000
Kevin Gregg: $4,200,000
Cesar Izturis: $1,500,000
Jeremy Accardo*: $1,080,000
Justin Duchscherer+: $700,000

*Non-tendered with less than 6 years of major-league service.
+Minor-league deal.

Brian Roberts signed a 4-year, $40 million deal in February of 2009, giving Baltimore his control through 2013 at $10 million a year. Roberts' contract includes a partial no-trade clause through 2011 and a full no-trade clause beginning in 2012--he is scheduled to be a 10-and-5 who can't be traded without his permission about a month and a half into the 2012 season anyway. This year he can block deals to 12 teams. Vladimir Guerrero signed a 1-year, $8 million deal this past offseason, but $3 million of it is deferred until 2016-2017 without interest, bringing the present value of the deal down to around $7 million. Derrek Lee signed a 1-year, $7.25 million deal this past offseason that includes $2.75 in playing-time bonuses, all of which will be attained if he records 600 plate appearances.

Mike Gonzalez signed a 2-year, $12 million deal in December of 2009, he is eligible for free agency after the season. Gregg signed a 2-year, $10 million deal in January of 2011. The deal pays him $4.2 million in 2011, $5.8 million in 2012, and includes a $6 million club option for 2013. The 2013 option will become guaranteed if Gregg finishes 50 games in 2012 or 100 in 2011-2012. Cesar Izturis signed a 1-year, $1.5 million deal in December of 2010. The deal includes $1.5 million in playing-time bonuses. Accardo was non-tendered by Toronto over the winter and signed a $1.08 million deal with Baltimore as a free agent. He remains under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2012. Duchscherer signed a minor-league deal that guarantees him $700,000, pays him a pro-rated portion of a $1.1 million salary while he's on Baltimore's active roster, and includes $3.4 million in playing-time bonuses. He's unlikely to pitch in the big-leagues at all in 2011, so the bonuses probably won't be triggered.

Continue reading this post »

I don't have a lot to add, but I'd like to present the 2011 BsRized standings through June 2 (without commentary). Team-level Base Runs were generated using the following formula in conjunction with data from Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference:

A = H + BB + HBP - HR - 0.5*IBB

B = [1.4×TB - 0.6×H - 3×HR + 0.1×(BB + HBP - IBB) + 0.9×(SB - CS - GIDP)]×1.1

C = AB - H + CS + GIDP

D = HR

BsR = A*B/(B+C) + D

The team-level Base Runs were used in the win% estimator PythagenPat to compile the standings.

NL East

Continue reading this post »

One of the underlying themes of sabermetrics is the human struggle separate our emotions from our perception of reality. A player dropping a key pop-up that costs your team the game does not automatically make him a bad defender, no matter how angry you may be with him. A player coming through with a pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam doesn't mean he has some inherent clutch ability, no matter how elated you may be with him.

Emotions often obscure reality by bringing excruciatingly painful or blissfully positive memories to the forefront, whether the moment is repeatable or not. We are all prone to discarding the the overwhelming majority of the data when our emotions are involved, choosing instead to follow the skewed perception down the rabbit hole before realizing it is nothing more than an illusion. Human emotions are a very, very powerful thing, powerful enough to strip even the brightest of baseball men of their objectivity.

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The Orioles spent a lot of money this offseason, nearly $36 million between trades and free agent signings. Their prolific spending netted them nine players, including their every-day designated hitter, every-day third baseman, every-day shortstop, every-day first baseman, closer, and top set-up man. Strategically, it seems like they tried to stick to 1-year commitments and acquire players that had fallen out of favor with their previous teams via trade. Their only multi-year acquisitions were the two years they gave Kevin Gregg as a free agent and the two years Mark Reynolds had left on his contract when he was acquired from the Diamondbacks. A fairly reasonable strategy for a rebuilding team with several holes and money to spend.

So far the Orioles have been a better team than they were last year, with a 23-24 record and -32 run differential (.429 PythagenPat W% in 2011, .338 PythagenPat W% in 2010), but was that $36 million money well spent? Let's take a look at the individual moves.

Vladimir Guerrero -- 1 year, $7.1 million

Guerrero's deal was for $8 million, total, but $3 million of it is deferred until 2016-2017 without interest, bringing the present value of the contract down to around $7.1 million. Guerrero has been used exclusively as a DH and hit .308/.332/.440, good for 0.5 rWAR, which gives him a $4 million dollars-to-win ratio. That's a bit better than the average free agent deal.

Continue reading this post »

2011 payroll: $53,489,833

Breakdown:

Free Agent-eligible

J.J. Putz: $4,000,000
Melvin Mora: $2,350,000
Aaron Heilman: $2,000,000
Xavier Nady: $1,750,000
Geoff Blum: $1,350,000
Henry Blanco: $1,000,000
Willie Bloomquist: $750,000
Sean Burroughs*+: $419,500
Micah Owings*+: $419,500
Josh Wilson+: $725,000

*Non-tendered with less than 6 years of major-league service.
+Minor-league deal.

J.J. Putz is the highest-paid free agent on their roster, but only the 6th highest-paid player overall. He was the Diamondbacks' biggest acquisition this past winter in an effort to shore up their league-worst 2010 bullpen. He's owed $4.5 million in 2012 and a $1.5 million buyout on a club option for 2013 (option salary: $6.5 million). Mora, Heilman, Nady, Blanco, and Bloomquist all signed 1-year deals with Arizona over the winter. Nady's deal includes $1 million in roster bonuses, all of which will trigger if he spends 120 days on the active roster.

The Blanco and Bloomquist deals both include mutual options for 2012, Blanco's worth $1.15 million with a $250,000 buyout and Bloomquist's worth $1.1 million with a $150,000 buyout. Blum's deal was a 2-year pact that pays him $1.35 million in both 2011 and 2012. Burroughs hadn't played in the majors since 2006, but the Diamondbacks signed him to a minor-league deal and recently added him to their active roster.

Micah Owings signed with Arizona--the team that originally drafted him--as a minor-league free agent in the offseason and was added to their active roster a few days ago. Josh Wilson was signed to a minor-league deal at the beginning of the season after being released by Seattle. He's owed a pro-rated portion of $725,000 for the time he spends in the majors and was activated on April 25th.

Continue reading this post »

2011 payroll: $94,623,191

Breakdown:

Free Agent-eligible

Ichiro Suzuki: $18,000,000
Chone Figgins: $9,500,000
Jack Wilson: $5,000,000
Miguel Olivo: $2,500,000
Jack Cust*: $2,500,000
Erik Bedard: $1,000,000
Chris Ray*+: $1,000,000
Jamey Wright+: $900,000
Adam Kennedy+: $750,000
Luis Rodriguez*+: $600,000

*Non-tendered with less than 6 years of major-league service.
+Minor-league deal.

Ichiro has been in the big leagues for 10 years. Ten years! That seems difficult to believe, but it's true. He's spent all ten years with the Mariners and he's on his third contract with them. This one was a 5-year, $90 million pact that pays him $17 million/year with a $5 million signing bonus. $25 million of the deal is deferred until after he retires at 5% interest. Chone Figgins signed a 4-year, $36 million deal with the Mariners when he was first eligible for free agency. The deal includes a $9 million option for 2014 that vests with 600 PA's in 2013.

Continue reading this post »

2011 payroll: $45,047,000

Let's break it down:

Free Agent-eligible

Chris Snyder: $6,250,000
Lyle Overbay: $5,000,000
Kevin Correia: $4,000,000
Matt Diaz*: $2,125,000
Joe Beimel+: $1,750,000
Jose Veras*: $419,500

*Non-tendered with less than 6 years of major-league service.
+Minor-league deal.

Snyder signed a 3-year, $14.25 million contract with the Diamondbacks in December of 2008 with a $6.75 million club option ($750,000 buyout) for 2012 before he was traded to Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks shipped $3.0 million to the Pirates in the deal, reducing their 2011 payroll to $42,047,000. Matt Diaz was eligible for arbitration this past offseason but the Braves non-tendered him instead, allowing him to hit the open market. He signed a 2-year, $4.25 million, big-league contract with the Pirates as a free agent.

Joe Beimel's contract was a minor-league pact that pays him a pro-rated portion of $1,750,000 for the time he spends in the majors and includes $300,000 in performance-based incentives. He was added to their active roster on April 15th. Lyle Overbay and Kevin Correia both signed as major-league free agents this offseason, Overbay getting 1-year, $5.0 million and Correia getting 2-years, $8.0 million. Veras was non-tendered by Florida with 3 years, 128 days of service last offseason. The Pirates signed him to a minor-league deal and added him to their active roster when the season started. Pittsburgh can retain Veras in 2012 and 2013 as an arbitration-eligible player.

Continue reading this post »

After seeing his bullpen falter and the team collapse down the stretch in two straight seasons, Omar Minaya made a big splash in December of 2008 by signing Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year, $37 million contract and acquiring J.J. Putz in a 3-team, 12-player trade on the same day. These moves were supposed to address what had been the Mets' most visible systematic weakness over the past two seasons, a weakness that had probably cost them a pair of playoff appearances. At the time, one Francisco Rodriguez and one J.J. Putz seemed like the perfect solution to an obvious problem.

Things haven't worked out like Minaya drew them up. Injuries and the inability to surround their core talent with competent role players have led to a .460 winning percentage for the Mets since their pre-2009 bullpen overhaul. Committing $37 million to a closer when you're on the playoff bubble and your bullpen is weak and you have money to spend is, though not the most efficient allocation of resources, entirely defensible. Having a closer making $11.5 million when you're not contending and financial resources aren't as abundant as they used to be is a problem. Even more problematic than Rodriguez's 2011 salary is his 2012 vesting option, one that calls for a $17.5 million salary if he finishes 54 games this year*.

Continue reading this post »

On August 28th, 2003 the Mets beat the Braves 3-1 behind seven strong inning from Al Leiter and two home runs by Jose Reyes, the fourth and fifth of his career. What's amazing to me is not that a 20 year old, lead-off hitting SS who came into the game hitting .309/.333/.421 hit two homers and drove in all three Mets runs, it's that Jose Reyes was playing major league baseball in 2003. He's been in the majors for nine years! Seems like yesterday he was a top prospect.

Reyes' 2003 season got a late start, he didn't make it to the big leagues until June 10th. His season was also cut short by an ankle injury and he failed to see the field in September of that year. Still the 69 games he did play in were rather impressive. He hit .307/.334/.434, stole 13 bases and 16 attempts, and left little to be desired with his glove at SS. Mets fans must have thought they were witnessing the birth of a super star.

Continue reading this post »

I don't have a lot to add, but I'd like to present the April 2011 BsRized standings (without commentary). Team-level Base Runs were generated using the following formula in conjunction with data from Baseball Reference:

A = H + BB + HBP - HR - 0.5*IBB

B = [1.4×TB - 0.6×H - 3×HR + 0.1×(BB + HBP - IBB) + 0.9×(SB - CS - GIDP)]×1.1

C = AB - H + CS + GIDP

D = HR

BsR = A*B/(B+C) + D

The team-level Base Runs were used in the win% estimator PythagenPat to compile the standings.

NL East

Continue reading this post »

Draft order

1 - KittenMittons
2 - sexbobomb
3 - bfkrams3
4 - BlackOps
5 - Cole Stevens
6 - SenSurround
7 - edurson
8 - free f.p. #14
9 - ***Ben Duronio*** -- League Manager
10 - AirmanSD
11 - Jeterian 2
12 - Bill Petti

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

I suggest emailing the manager whose pick follows yours after each selection to keep the draft moving.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft Spreadsheet.

You know the drill by now.

Draft spreadsheet.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft order

1 - Bobby Flashpants
2 - CajoleJuice
3 - todmod
4 - epatl
5 - mcboyt
6 - Varroa Destructor
7 - Barold
8 - Tommy Bennett
9 - EamusCatuli06
10 - dmm3366@hotmail.com
11 - John Lopiano
12 - Paul Crewe

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

You guys know the drill by now.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft spreadsheet.

Draft order

1 - ajfriedman
2 - BrendanHarrisLives
3 - ronjba
4 - grantjg1
5 - doublej4725
6 - Satchel Price
7 - jfcincotta
8 - jar75
9 - stvfres
10 - Robert L. Bishop
11 - k26dp
12 - 3cardmonty

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

Good job getting the first five rounds done with haste. Keep on truckin'.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft spreadsheet.

Draft order

1 - ajfriedman
2 - BrendanHarrisLives
3 - ronjba
4 - grantjg1
5 - doublej4725
6 - Satchel Price
7 - jfcincotta
8 - jar75
9 - stvfres
10 - Robert L. Bishop
11 - k26dp
12 - 3cardmonty

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

You guys are crushing it so far, having flown through the first five rounds. Great stuff.

Draft spreadsheet.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft order

1 - Bobby Flashpants
2 - CajoleJuice
3 - todmod
4 - epatl
5 - mcboyt
6 - Varroa Destructor
7 - Barold
8 - Tommy Bennett
9 - EamusCatuli06
10 - dmm3366@hotmail.com
11 - John Lopiano
12 - Paul Crewe

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

Draft order

1 - KittenMittons
2 - sexbobomb
3 - bfkrams3
4 - BlackOps
5 - Cole Stevens
6 - SenSurround
7 - edurson
8 - free f.p. #14
9 - ***Ben Duronio*** -- League Manager
10 - AirmanSD
11 - Jeterian 2
12 - Bill Petti

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

I suggest emailing the manager whose pick follows yours after each selection to keep the draft moving.

I'm still looking for someone to manage this one. Let me know if you're able and willing (again, no hands on work apart from notifying me if there's an issue). If you agree to be LM, you get to name the league.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft Spreadsheet.

Draft order

1 - keanuthon
2 - ***Jevant*** -- League Manager
3 - Dandretti
4 - CEW
5 - LG47
6 - Adam Banks
7 - nick5253
8 - ThePetis
9 - frankman10
10 - CarLoogy
11 - Okobojicat
12 - mattb723

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

I suggest emailing the manager whose pick follows yours after each selection to keep the draft moving.

I'm still looking for someone to manage this one. Let me know if you're able and willing (again, no hands on work apart from notifying me if there's an issue). If you agree to be LM, you get to name the league.

Salary and position eligibility information.

League rules and roster information.

Draft Spreadsheet.

Draft order

1 - Bobby Flashpants
2 - CajoleJuice
3 - todmod
4 - epatl
5 - mcboyt
6 - Varroa Destructor
7 - Barold
8 - Tommy Bennett
9 - EamusCatuli06
10 - dmm3366@hotmail.com
11 - John Lopiano
12 - Paul Crewe

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

I suggest emailing the manager whose pick follows yours after each selection to keep the draft moving.

Your league manager is CajoleJuice. If you have questions ask me or go through him.

Draft order

1 - ajfriedman
2 - BrendanHarrisLives
3 - ronjba
4 - grantjg1
5 - doublej4725
6 - Satchel Price
7 - jfcincotta
8 - jar75
9 - stvfres
10 - Robert L. Bishop
11 - k26dp
12 - 3cardmonty

Remember it's a snake draft.

Make your selection in the comments section using this format:

Rd.Pk Name - Pos, Team
Salary

Example:

1.1 Alex Rodriguez - 3B, NYY
$0.4 million

I suggest emailing the manager whose pick follows yours after each selection to keep the draft moving.

Your league manager is ajfriedman. If you have questions ask me or go through him.

The team sheets are finished and the first two leagues have been formed. We're ready to start drafting this afternoon. Whee.

Below 'the jump' I've listed the assignments for the first two leagues. These are comprised exclusively of people who helped out with the player salary and position eligibility information compilation process. If you've signed up and aren't assigned to one of these leagues, don't panic! These won't be the only two we host and you'll only have to wait a day or two to start drafting.

A few referential links before I post the league assignments:

• 2011 announcement.

• Draft prep thread.

• Salary and position eligibility information.

Continue reading this post »

So far we have 56 sign-ups, enough for four leagues with eight alternates. Sign-ups are still open, but I'll get to that in a minute. Right now we need to establish the player pool. We're looking for some help from the participants. Here's what we're looking for:

1. Pick a team that hasn't been chosen yet (indicate you've done so in the comments section of this article).
2. Download this template.
3. Get the name, position eligibility (20 games in minors or majors last year or last year played if out for season), and salary amount (using information from Cot's Baseball Contracts) of every player on the team's 40-man roster and any other notable members of the organization.
4. Copy said information to your team's sheet in the above linked template.
5. Save the template (follow up your initial commitment with an indication that the task has been completed in the comments section of this article).

This needs to be done for all thirty teams. It's a lot of work, but it will seem like a lot less when shared among thirty people.

As I mentioned sign-ups are still open. Everyone who signed up in the last thread is guaranteed a spot in a league. If you haven't signed up yet and want to play leave your email address in the subject line of a comment on this article. Anyone who signs up in this thread and helps compile the salary and position eligibility information is also guaranteed a spot in a league. The rest of the sign-ups will be placed on a waiting list. We may have enough to form a league or two off of said waiting list, though unfortunately we can't make any guarantees in this regard.

Continue reading this post »

Back in November Scott Podsednik had a 1-year, $2 million offer, including a guaranteed roster spot, to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2011. The Dodgers had exercised their $2 million club option, but it was one that Podsednik had the power to void. He declined the offer (voided the option)--presumably seeking a bigger salary--and hit the free agent market. Yesterday Podsednik signed a minor-league deal with the Toronto Blue Jays worth $1 million if he makes the team. Clearly Podsednik would have been better off not voiding the option (unless he likes Toronto $1-million-and-a-guaranteed-roster-spot more than Los Angeles), but I'm not convinced doing so was the incorrect decision.

Continue reading this post »

It's back. The 2011 BtB "Ball on a Budget" Fantasy League. The basics:

• 12 team snake draft
• $60MM budget using actual MLB salaries
• 25-man roster, no subs, no transactions
• The only scoring category is Fangraphs' version of WAR.

We will be looking to fill as many leagues as we can. Last year we had two, hopefully we'll have more this year.

We'll start filling leagues immediately, but we're going to need a little help from the participants.

Depending on the number of leagues/people involved, we will require each person to do the 2011 salary and position eligibility for 1 or 2 teams. If a salary changes, the predraft list will be used.

Once we have the salary information, we will begin starting the drafts. I would like to start as soon as possible.

The rules are simple, hopefully, so read on for details:

Continue reading this post »