It's getting closer and closer to the off-season - so as Bills fans - we start to think of how this team can get better for next year.

Certainly, central to that effort is the draft. In a backhanded way - the draft is an evaluation of the talent you already have - or perhaps - don't have.

So - here goes...

Round by round

1 - Melvin Ingram - a lot of people might think this is way too high for Ingram to go, but I think he has size, can play DE or OLB, and is a playmaker.

2 - Mike Brewster - A quality number two center was a problem for the Bills this year, Brewster would provide the Bills with quality depth at C and G.

3 - Leonard Johnson, CB, Iowa State, he did really well against Blackmon and has pretty good size and speed. The Bills got two pretty good corners in 2011, but they could use another one, especially a guy that can play press man.

4a - BJ Coleman, given Fitz`s ups and downs, and Thigpen`s poor showing in the preseason, I think it would make sense to draft a developmental type QB...Coleman has good size and a pretty good arm.

4b - Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State, small school receiver with good size and OK speed. Some people say he could go as high as the third round, but if he only runs OK, in the mid 4.5`s, I think it is probably more like the fourth.

5a - Julian Miller, DE, didn`t have a great year, but he has pass rush ability and would be a pretty good value in the fifth. Also, if they want to go to more four man fronts, he would give them a rotational 43 end rusher.

5b - Dominique Hamilton, five technique, the Bills don`t really need another five technique, but I really like the player, and in my mind, you can never be too good up front on either side of the ball.

6 - James Carmon, OT, really big, kind of a development guy with some upside, I don`t mind taking some fliers on guys in the last couple rounds with some unusual ability.

7 - Ryan Houston, FB, UNC, he could compete with Mack for some time at FB, probably a more complete player than Mack, he is probably a better runner and receiver. I`m not sure why the Bills don`t use more PRO sets, maybe if they had a more complete FB, they would.

There has been a lot of discussion about whether the Bills should be a 4-3 or a 3-4. Initially, I was in favor of them becoming a 3-4, but now I favor a return to the 4-3. Here's why....

1. Probably their two best defensive lineman (Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus) are best suited to play the 4-3 as three technique defensive tackles. In a 3-4 - both of these players effectiveness is somewhat limited.
2. Another player they are tied to (Chris Kelsay) is better as a 4-3 end than as a 3-4 outside linebacker. They aren't tied to him as much as the previous two guys, but they have made somewhat of a commitment.
3. In terms of personnel they need, I don't think there is much difference. They need a couple of pass rushers either way. They either need a couple of OLB's or a couple of 4-3 DE's. In a 4-3, they might need an outside linebacker, but I think that could wait. If they can get a pass rush, that will cure a multitude of ills.
4. Advantages of the 4-3... The 4-3 has some advantages and some disadvantages - but one of the advantages is in terms of the kind of personnel you can put on the field. The ideal 4-3 end is in my mind the best pure pass rusher and is about six five and two hundred and seventy five pounds. Often this player is a little too tall to play outside linebacker, and is a fish out of water in a 3-4. Similarly, playing a 4-3 allows you to have some lighter "run and chase" linebackers whose coverage skills are a little better, and allows you to keep one or two lighter defensive tackles on the roster, who allow some more quickness.

There is my case for the 4-3...what do you think?

Wow - this season has gone from pretty promising to reasonably disappointing in a matter of a few weeks - but that is how the NFL is, each game means so much.

So - Rumblers - if we make the assumption that the Bills won't make the playoffs - what's on the line?

Actually, I think quite a bit, including:

First - Ryan Fitzpatrick. A lot of people might think Ryan's pretty secure as the team's quarterback for the foreseeable future, but I think there are a lot of reasons that it is important he plays well down the stretch. If he can play well, close to as well as he played against the Jets, and if the team can finish somewhat strong (say 8-8), then I think that gives the team and the front office quite a bit of confidence going into next year. I just think that it is important that he and Gailey make adjustments, and that Ryan proves that he can make enough NFL throws for this team to be a playoff team next year.

Second - everybody is saying it and it's true - this is an important six game stretch for CJ Spiller. Jackson has been so good that it hasn't really made sense to give CJ a lot of touches. But this is a golden opportunity for CJ to grow as a RB and for the Bills to evaluate when and how to use him. You wonder if he does really well if this could affect Jackson's contract - I don't think it should - but nobody said that life in the NFL is fair. Also, I think the Bills losing, if it continues could affect the contract situations.

Third - WR. I really liked the WR situation against the Jets with Stevie and Smith on the outside and Nelson in the slot. To me, Donald Jones is not a starting NFL receiver, I like him as a fourth or fifth receiver and a good special teams gunner on punts. But to me, he has average hands at best, and doesn't adjust terribly well to downfield throws. So I think the number two WR situation is wide open for Brad Smith to lay claim to. Incidentally, I hope that Gaily continues to use a fair amount of the two TE personnel groupings, I think it helps the team be more physical, and just plain better.

Fourth - CB. I'd like to say pass rush, but I've almost given up on that until the draft next year. But I like what I've seen from Aaron Williams and Justin Rodgers - and I think the Bills will give them both every opportunity to earn more and more playing time. With CB a possibility high in the draft next year, I think what happens with the Bills young corners will dictate to some extent what the Bills do at this position in the off-season.

Comments...

It's been somewhat of a roller coaster ride this year, but all in all, I think Nix and Gailey are making some pretty good progress with the team.  To me this looks like a 9-7 team that will battle pretty well to the end of the season, but they are not quite there yet.

It's never too early to start thinking about next year, so here's a first version mock draft...let me know what you think.

1 - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama (The Bills number one need is an edge rusher)

2 - Coby Fleener TE, Stanford (Fleener is a really good receiving TE, would help the Bills create mismatches)

3 - Andre Branch, DE/OLB Clemson (Again, edge rushers that can play standing up or with their hand in the dirt)

4 - Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State (A big coordinated receiver with OK speed, but can just play)

4 - Omar Bolden, CB, Arizona State (Help at CB, hard to say where we are at CB)

5 - Tom Compton, OT, South Dakota (From here on down, developmental types fighting for backup spots on the 53)

5 - Phillip Blake, C, Baylor

6 - Patrick Witt, QB, Yale

7 - Davin Megget, RB, Maryland

It seems a fair number of people are getting pretty upset over the Evans trade...I don't agree.  I like Evans, but at this point I think he is no more than a pretty good NFL receiver, and a good deep threat.  One problem with that for the Bills is that while I like Fitz a lot - he doesn't have a really strong arm...and doesn't throw a great deep ball.

I like the fit in Baltimore - strong armed quarterback, should help Evans and I think Evans can help them.  A fourth round pick is OK compensation - now they just have to go make their draft picks matter.

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Who knows when the lockout will end...but it will probably end sometime in July or August...one would think.  For the record, I really like what the Bills did in the draft.  To me, they did an excellent job of sticking true to their plan.  They have said they wanted to focus on defense and to get bigger and more physical...and I think their draft was really consistent with that plan. 

Anyhow...I think they have gotten better...not sure exactly how much better - maybe 7-9 better.  But undrafted free agents will be signed at some point and I think there are a few out there that would really help the Bills.  So here goes with my wish list for a few of the undrafted free agents that I think could help the Bills significantly...maybe make the 53 man roster.

The first two are kind of easy picks for me...two pretty good players...that fit Bills positions of need.  After this draft, I don't think there are a ton of positions of need left, but a couple of them could be tight end and (still) tackle.  Is it just me - or does it always seem like tackle is a position of need for the Bills?

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One of the reasons I was in favor of the Bills switch to the 3-4 defensive front is the inherent ability to bring pressure on the QB in a greater variety of ways.  The "34" enhances the defenses ability to mix and max blitz packages and bring different combinations of linebackers and safeties.  The 4-3 is a little more limited in this regard - unless the coordinator is willing to drop D-linemen into coverage.

One of the things we have seen increasingly lately is more exotic defensive looks - with 1 or 2 D lineman.  Admittedly, these formations are pretty much restricted to third and long or third and very long.  But they take this concept (bringing the rush from a variety of places) to another level.

Rex Ryan has used  this last year - with only one defensive lineman.  Nick Barnett described one of their 1-5-5 packages that Green Bay used against Pittsburgh last year.  And Matt Bowen, several weeks ago, broke down a 3-2-6 look by the New Orleans Saints (see his July 6th post at NFP).

So...its pretty clear the Bills will use some 3-4 looks and some 4-3 looks - but will they use much that could be considered exotic with few down lineman and complex blitz packages?

Your thoughts...

In general - I like what Gailey and Nix have done.  But I wish they would have kept Levi - at least on the practice squad.  It's not that I don't want them to cut draft picks, or this year's draft picks.

I was impressed with Brown's arm strength and some of the throws he made in the last game - in particular the deep throw to Hardy (who, incidentally, I think did deserve to get cut) and also the throw down the left sideline to Jones.  I just think the potential payoff for a QB that turns out is so much higher than most other positions.  You need a couple of O line guys and at least one receiver on the taxi squad, just for numbers.  But beyond that the Bills, like every other team, has a bunch of guys that will spend most of the year on PS - just to get cut next year.