I have long considered this, but once I got challenged by Shums in tonight's game thread I figured I would do a quick investigation.  I have figured that if the Jazz have a good third quarter (minus the Dallas game back on Nov. 3rd) they will usually win the game.  Usually the 3rd quarter will tell the tale of whether I want to watch the 4th quarter.  I did some quick investigating and here is a quarter by quarter break down in both wins and losses.

In Jazz wins the average points per quarter are:

Jazz - 27.8 - 27.0 - 26.9 - 23.8

Opp - 23.7 - 24.0 - 23.4 - 22.8

In a Jazz loss the average points per quarter are:

Jazz - 25.5 - 25.0 - 19.5 - 24.3

Opp - 24.5 - 26.7 - 26.8 - 27.2

The Jazz are close to the same in wins and losses except for the 7.4 point drop in the 3rd quarter! 

I am glad that the numbers back up what I have been thinking.

Another glaring number is in the 4th quarter.  The opponents are scoring 4.4 more points in a Jazz loss.

I don't get why the Jazz are coming out so flat in the 3rd quarter.  Any ideas?

Seems right now that 5 is the magical number with the Jazz.  As it stands now the Jazz are in a tie for 5th place with the Rockets in the West.  They have quietly snuck to 2.5 games behind the Nuggets.  If the lottery was to begin right now we would have the 5th pick (not equating in the "lottery").  And the play of Number 5 has us all baffled.  Surely we can't trade this guy now. 

I don't know what to think of this team but right now 5 seems to be the magical omen.  Or the number 5 gave me a reason to post a FanPost.

This is all based on stats before the game with the Lakers tonight.

I went down to Vegas for the Team USA Scrimmage last night.  It was a good time in more ways than one.  Here is my synopsis of the events.  Sorry for no pics, I forgot the camera on my way out the door.  I took a pic with my cell phone but it is just a blur.  I can post it as a FanSHOT if it is wanted, but it is hard to make anything out of it.

First item, Kevin Durant is a stud.  He and Rudy Gay really played well.  Durant is tall, probably the tallest behind Lopez, Oden and McGee.  He is loaded with talent and is just a freak athlete.  He is a lock for the '12 team. 

Brook Lopez is pretty good.  If the Jazz could land him with some sort of Boozer trade, it has my full support.  He is huge and has some skills that are hard to find in a 7 footer.

Oden is huge! He looks older in real life.  No matter how old you think he looks at 10 more years to that number and that is what he appears in real life.  He even moves around like he is 38.  I don't know how much he weighs in real life but he is pushing 300 easy.

As for the 3 Jazz men, Brewer looks like he has put on some weight.  The good kind.  His shooting appears to be improved, of course it's hard to tell after one game.  He did hit a 3 pointer.  I was disappointed in Millsap.  He didn't have a bad game, but he didn't do anything that was that impressive.  Korver looked good.  I think he has the best shot of making the team.  A spot-shooter is needed on Team USA to spread the floor.  Korver can be the Redd of the 2012 team.  He definitely is better than Michael Redd.  He plays better defense. 

Brewer played his typical game, and had the best highlight of the first half (a reverse alley oop dunk).  Korver played a great game and was hustling on defense.  Millsap had a so-so game and if you are basing on making the Team on that scrimmage then he did nothing to earn a spot. 

Of the Jazz players to make the team Korver has the best shot. 

This is how I think the Jazz can win tonight and eventually the series. 

Do they need to play a perfect game and series?  No, but they got to get there heads in the game.  The Lakers and any NBA team will let you get back into any ball game, it's what you do with that moment when you get back into the game. 

I am a firm believer that LA is NOT a physical team as much as Kobe likes to think they are.  The only physical player on that team is Andrew Bynum, but if you can get him swatting at everything you can get him in foul trouble pretty easily.  That is why I love Sloan saying that the team needs to get "nasty".  I think that is exactly what they need.  Gasol is very, very containable if you get all up in his grill and get him worried about refereeing more than getting the rebound.  Kobe is also containbale if you play him physically (ala Raja Bell choke slam 3-4 yrs ago).  Kobe likes to talk big and let you think he is tough and physical.

Don't let Bynum get the ball down low.  He is a terrific back to the hoop player (thanks to Kareem).  So if Boozer/Millsap/Collins can keep him off the low-block and force him to square up about 10-15 feet away then they have the advantage.  Gasol on the other hand is better facing up, but can't catch the ball on the lower block.  If whoever is guarding these 2 bigs will keep them off the low block and play them physically can contain these guys.

Kobe, well Kobe is going to get his.  I think Brewer played Kobe the best.  Brewer is more physical and his athleticism is a little more forgiving to play Kobe.  Kirilenko is too wirey and when Kobe runs him off the picks he gets held up and so there is usually a quick switch on defender 'til AK can get through the screen.  By this time Kobe has usually blown past the "switch" defender and is driving to the lane and picking up a phantom foul.  Brewer usually will fight through the screen and stays in front of Kobe for the most part.  

What the heck is up with the Lakers bench.  I guarantee we won't be getting THAT much production out of Brown and Powell throughout this series.  The other thing is the Lakers shot 55.6% compared to the Jazz 39.1%. 

Boozer is horrible on defense.  And I mean HORRIBLE.  If the Jazz can get him to give even a half-hearted effort that would be a big improvement.  He is slow.  Trevor Ariza blew past Boozer like Booz was an elementary kid playing with high school kids on a fast break where Booz had a 1/4 of the court head start.  He needs to get embarassed by that and his defense because both his speed and d have no business in a professional sport.

So, in closing the Lakers are beatable.  If the Jazz will take the call from their coach and get "nasty" with the Lakers and get them worried more about the refs then the game, that is a big head start.  Kobe and Odom got t'd up in the first game and if you can get them worried about something else then you have an advantage.  Keep Brewer on Kobe and keep the big guys off the low block.  Also, get Boozer to play some "d" and if not sit his butt on the bench and get Millsap out there. 

If the Jazz can do some of this then I think we can stretch this to a long series and gain the edge.  Of course add in the standards: low turnovers, get to the ft line, make shots and fts.

I was just looking at the list of free agents.  Wow!  No one really stands out.

The Jazz could possibly have 7 Unrestricted free agents:
Morris Almond
Carlos Boozer (P)
Jarron Collins
Brevin Knight
Kyle Korver (ETO)
Mehmet Okur (ETO)
Ronnie Price

and they will have 2 Restricted free agents:

Paul Millsap
Kyrylo Fesenko (Team Option)

That could lead to a major overhaul of the team.  Looking through the list of players that could be available is like looking thru a menu on a full stomach.  Nothing looks satisfying.  No one look like they bring us home a Larry O'Brien trophy.  The names that stuck out were:

Shawn Marion

Mike Finley

Hedo Turkoglu (if Korver opts out)

David Lee

Jason Collins (just got to see what kind of reaction I get)

Lamar Odom

Rasheed Wallace

Not exactly exciting.  But if you're the Jazz, who do you try and keep and who do you try and get?

IMO, you resign Millsap, let Boozer walk, resign Knight and Price, go after Lee, and throw 'Sheed a bone.  I don't think Korver or Okur will exercise their ETO's (early termination option).

What's your take?

Stole this from Marc Stein but the Utah Jazz are 1-10 when playing the back end of a back to back.  Here is Stein's quote:
Only Memphis (0-10) and Washington (0-9) are worse than Utah (1-10) on the second night of a back-to-back.


What is the reason?  And what change needs to be made to stop this from happening?

Will a trade fix this?  Does Sloan take the blame?

Why?

Was the 21 point beat-down by the 7-33 OKC Thunder the worse loss of the NBA season? 

The Jazz previously got waxed by 25 (Nov. 21) to the arch-nemesis in San Antonio, the Spurs.  But that is the Spurs and we haven't won in San Antonion since Aristotle was breaking down a little Greek Philosophy and was drawing in the sand.  But as far as who the opponent was and by how much they beat us, is it the worse loss of the 2008/09 NBA season? 

OKC is battling Washington for the worse record in the NBA and the Jazz are battling for a playoff berth. 

What's your take?  Worse loss of the season so far?

Who do you think will make the playoffs in the west and the east, and who will play for the 'chip come June?  And what team is going to bring Larry O'Brien home?

My predictions:

WEST

1. Lakers

2. Houston

3. Utah

4. New Orleans

5. Spurs

6. Suns

7. Dallas

8. Denver

EAST

1. Boston

2. Detroit

3. Cleveland

4. Orlando

5. Washington

6. Philadelphia

7. Toronto

8. Miami

FINALS

Utah - Boston  with Boston winning in 6 games.

Check out this article by Dime Mag on Deron Williams.

Pretty Sweet to see Deron Williams get some publicity.  I especially like the part in the article where he says:

Dime: There’s a chance you could be a free agent in 2009. You know someone like Mark Cuban will have a ton of money to throw at you; and there’s a chance Jason Kidd could be retired by then; and you grew up in Dallas. You know where I’m going with this, right?
DW: Really, I don’t think the possibility (of leaving) is very strong, especially for this first contract. This is where I wanna be. I think we have great team chemistry right now — I think we have a championship team with the guys we have. I don’t see myself going anywhere for the next five years.

From watching the Olympics, who's stock has risen the most and who has dropped the most?

Obviously this being a Jazz blog you have to go w/ D-Will on the rise, since he hasn't even been to an All-Star game but in my opinion is playing the best at the PG position and is playing like a superstar. 

But then you got D-Wade who is coming back from a horrible season and is just beasting everybody.  Yardbaker from Foxsports actually has Wade at #5 on the 5 most overrated NBA players. 

You also have Lebron who we all know was a beast but is proving it to the world, but then you also have a few unsung heroes in Chris Bosh and Tayshaun Prince.  Did you honestly think going into the Olympics that Tayshaun would be getting more burn than Boozer??

But on the down side you have Kobe who can't hit a 3-point shot (which his fans are blaming on a shorter 3-point distance) and Boozer who is getting Jason Hart type minutes.

So, who is raising their stock value the most and who's stock value is dropping from playing in the Olympics (if that is possible)?