SBNation.com User Blog: Patrick Clark

Dominican boys imperil themselves for the profit of MLB and somehow MLB is the victim?

Patrick Clark — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:10:13 -0000

Dominican boys imperil themselves for the profit of MLB and somehow MLB is the victim?

31 Largest Latin American Signing Bonuses of All Time

Patrick Clark — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:57:41 -0000

The Twins signed Dominican SS prospect Miguel Sano to a $3.15 million bonus last week; I'm not sure what's happening with Wagner Mateo, who's $3.1 million deal was recently voided by the Cardinals, but it seems like Sano will be the last member of the 2009 July 2 class to receive a seven-figure bonus. A current list of Latin American amateurs to sign million dollar deals follows after the jump.*

I'm posting it because I couldn't find anything this complete elsewhere, and in general, we need better information on Latin American baseball. That said, the data doesn't tell us much. The July 2 mega-bonus is a new development—I count only six seven-figure bonuses before 2005—and the process of scouting Latin America talent has evolved pretty rapidly.

It's worth noting that we probably shouldn't use these figures to compare Latin prospects to Rule 4 draftees, who are generally two to five years older at signing, and are not afforded the luxury of negotiating as free agents. If you think that Sano would have gotten $3.15 million if his rights were controlled by one team, you haven't read Dejan Kovacevic's excellent, revelatory account of the Sano signing.

Also note that I've excluded Cubans, who have generally played professionally in Cuba before signing with MLB clubs, and who are generally older than the July 2 prospects.

Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000
Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000
Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000
Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000
Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000
Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000
Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000
Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00
Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000
Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000
Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000
Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000
Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000
Jesus Montero, 16, C, 2006, Yankees, VZA, $1,650,000
Jackson Melian, 16, OF, 1996, Yankees, VZA, $1,600,000
Jurickson Profar, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, Curaçao, $1,550,000
Ricardo Aramboles, 16, RHP, 1998, Yankees, D.R., $1,520,000
Luis Sardinas, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, VZA, 1,500,000
Michael Almanzar, 16, SS, 2007, Red Sox, D.R., $1,500,000
Esmailyn Gonzalez, 16, SS, 2006, Nationals, D.R., $1,400,000
Fernando Martinez, 16, OF, 2005, Mets, D.R., $1,400,000
Willy Aybar, 16, IF, 2000, Dodgers, D.R., $1,400,000
Carlos Triunfel, 16, SS, 2006, Mariners, D.R., $1,300,000
Luis Domoromo, 16, OF, 2008, Padres, VZA, $1,250,000
Juan Urbina, 16, LHP, 2009, Mets, VZA, $1,250,000
Chesler Cuthbert, 16, 3B, 2009, Royals, Nicaragua, $1,200,000
Roberto De la Cruz, 16, 3B, 2008, Cardinals, D.R., $1,100,000
Julio Morban, 16, OF, 2008, Mariners, D.R., $1,100,000
Kelvin De Leon, 16, OF, 2007, Yankees, D.R., $1,100,000
Alvaro Aristy, 17, SS, 2008, Padres, D.R., $1,000,000
Jharmidy De Jesus, 17, SS, 2007, Mariners, D.R., $1,000,000

*If I'm missing any, or if you spot any inaccuracies, please let me know.

Tragic Week In Dominican Baseball

Patrick Clark — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:26:15 -0000

It’s been a bad week in Dominican baseball. First it broke that Dominican bonus baby Angel Villalona had turned himself into authorities as the main suspect in a shooting killing in La Romana, D.R., followed days later by reports that the St. Louis Cardinals had voided a $3.1 million contract with 2009 signee Wagner Mateo over a pre-existing medical condition. Meanwhile, Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times published a must-read piece on the dangers facing Dominican baseball. I'd planned to resume my examination of an international draft with a piece on Puerto Rico's inclusion in the Rule 4 draft, but decided instead to delve into recent events. Puerto Rico's not going anywhere, right?

For those who missed it, San Francisco Giants farmhand Angel Villalona surrendered to authorities on Sunday, Sept. 20 following a Saturday night shooting death in a La Romana nightclub. My Spanish isn’t perfect, but from what I can glean from the Dominican dailies, Mario Félix de Jesús Valette was allegedly shot dead after a dispute with Villalona’s entourage at a nightclub called D’Tony’s Superfría.* Villalona, a 19-year-old first baseman who signed a headline-getting bonus of $2.1 million in 2006, denies that he is responsible for the death.

* Is that a mural of Tony Montana on the front door?

Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News has some reactions from Villalona’s teammates at San Jose, including big leaguers Buster Posey and Waldis Jaoquin (for more on whom, see R.J.’s piece at Fangraphs), who notes the ubiquity of handguns in the Dominican Republic. Having spent a couple months in the D.R. last spring, I can concur, and recall riding on the back of a friend’s motorcycle on a tour of the farming center of Constanza. After several minutes of wondering what was digging into my pelvis, I asked the gentleman to adjust his pistol.

***

While we don’t know the half of the Villalona story, it’s nonetheless hard not to think of Cesar Cedeño. Signed as a 16-year-old in 1967, in ‘72 the Astros 21-year-old centerfielder posted a wOBA of .421 and won what would be the first of five consecutive gold gloves.

Cedeño put up a wOBA of .417 in ’73, but that winter would be a difficult one for the budding superstar. According to published accounts, Cedeño and his girlfriend, Altagracia de la Cruz, were struggling over a loaded handgun in a Santo Domingo motel room when the gun went off, killing de la Cruz. A paraffin test ultimately determined that de la Cruz’ pulled the trigger and Cedeño was let off with a nominal fine, but it is often thought that the incident dogged the Hall of Very Gooder throughout his career.

"It never affected my playing," Cedeño told Peter Gammons for a 1977 Sports Illustrated piece, an assertion Rob Neyer seconds in his Big Book of Baseball Lineups:

"Cedeño actually played quite well from 1974 through ’77. Then, after missing most of ’78 with an injury and struggling in ’79, Cedeño bounced back with a fine 1980. At that point, he was still on a Hall of Fame path."

It was a broken ankle, says Neyer, sustained in Game 3 of the 1980 NLCS, that marked the turning point in Cedeño’s career.

***

According to Will Carroll, Wagner Mateo’s is another sort of tragedy. Signed by the Cardinals to the richest July 2 deal of the summer, the Redbirds have apparently voided the $3.1 million contract they had previously awarded the lefty center fielder after his medical examination revealed a degenerative eye condition.

Ben Badler has details and reactions at Baseball America. What sticks out for me is this quote:

"I’ve got doctors who say he does things better with his eye vision than normal players," [Edgar] Mercedes said. "What he makes up for with having 20/30 vision is above-normal depth perception. So it’s going to be a legal issue."

Mercedes, who represents Mateo, is the Dominican proprietor of the Born To Play Academy, the Haina, D.R.-based program that produced Michael Ynoa in 2008; he’s also the owner of 40 or so legal sports betting locations around the nation.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but it’s striking for me to see a Dominican adviser contemplating legal action against a club. Historically marginalized as so-call buscones, men filling the role of Mercedes have become increasingly sophisticated as the market has become more profitable, and I like to hope a more sophisticated adviser wins the Dominican prospect a fairer shake in his dealings with clubs (not to mention a fairer shake with his own adviser).

***

We need more stories like this one in the national media, which has generally underreported and misunderstood (frankly, it’s hard to understand) the world of Latin American baseball.

Baxter identifies three plagues—PEDs, age-fraud and bonus-skimming—that threaten to destroy the Dominican baseball industry.

There’s a lot of information in one place here—59 percent of the minor-leaguers busted for PEDs in the last year-and-a-half have been Dominican; since 2001, an average of 145 ID-fraud cases have come out of the D.R. yearly—and the whole the thing is worth a read.

That said, the tone may be a bit alarmist—talent usually plays, doesn’t it?—for instance, this:

"’Baseball in the Dominican Republic is in jeopardy,’ says Charles Farrell, a former Washington Post journalist and co-founder of the Dominican Republic Sports and Education Academy (DRSEA). ‘Just from the integrity issue. There's no simple solution.’"

Still, when Farrell talks, I listen; he’s the rare source for Latin American baseball knowledge that does not work for MLB, its clubs or develop prospects for profit.

In a recent newsletter (Volume II, Isuue 15), Farrell offered a novel approach to the age-fraud problem:

"Why not start a fingerprinting program for boys in the fifth grade (or earlier), and create a data base against which identities can be checked in six years, with 16 being the age when Dominican males can sign with Major League Baseball teams?"

Farrell says the idea was pitched to him by a baseball exec who noted that Venezuelans are fingerprinted when they apply for their national identification cards, usually at the age of 9 or 10.

Putting aside for the moment any moral-qualms about fingerprinting children, the immediate practical concern is, who pays?

I’m often surprised to hear baseball folk lay problems with identity-fraud at the foot of the Dominican government. Haven’t they been to the D.R.? Education is only mandatory to the fifth grade, the average salary is something like $9,000 and even in middle class sections of the capital city, electricity is spotty at best.

At the same time, baseball brings millions upon millions into the country, and in spite of the riches that MLB reaps from the D.R., I’m not sure that the league should be charged with tackling national infrastructural problems.

So in the style of the much-esteemed Tommy Bennett, a weekend discussion question: who pays? And with regards to PEDs, age-fraud and bonus-skimming, whose problems are these?

Towards an Understanding of the Worldwide Draft

Patrick Clark — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:08:07 -0000

Please welcome Patrick Clark to the BtB fraternity (not that I'm opposed to making this a co-ed house down the road.) My first exposure to Patrick's work came through his fascinating look at Dominican youth baseball. He'll be taking a look at the international game at BtB, both by dissecting angles most fans aren't familiar with and, eventually, from the objective, data-driven side. Give him a warm BtB welcome. - Sky

"There’s no question in my mind, in 2011, certainly a [hard] slotting system and a worldwide draft are things we will be very aggressive about," said Selig.

This from MLB’s spendthrift commissioner on August 19, as the signing period for the Rule 4 draft closed and Stephen Strasburg laid waste to Mark Prior’s record for an amateur bonus. It’s no surprise then that Selig’s comments on the amateur draft have received the bulk of the attention, even if it’s also worth noting that we only seem to hone in on the international talent market when someone has been defrauded.

Still, a worldwide draft represents a more radical departure from prevailing procedure than hard slotting does, and the ramifications are greater.

Without getting into the arcane details (for more on which, try here) internationals born between July 2 and Aug. 31 become eligible to sign free agent contracts on their 16th birthdays, while those born after Aug. 31 become eligible to sign on the subsequent July 2.

The July 2 system is modest in its aims: to assert a semblance of order to the international market by instituting age constraints and focusing signing activity to a limited time-period.

Given these aims, the system has been largely successful. Under its auspices, clubs have retained and developed large quantities of talent, often at low costs, just as large quantities of international—mostly Latin American—players have achieved professional careers, and cottage-industries have developed to varying degrees globally.

But as MLB’s international talent market has become increasingly important, the July 2 system has come under a series of criticisms from certain quarters. To wit, that the free market nature of the July 2 system has caused bonuses to explode, favored richer teams, and engendered an atmosphere in which players lie about their ages, adults take advantage of adolescents, and everybody but this guy gets screwed.

Well, I’m going to leave the validity of these claims aside for now. The data is far from complete, but one of the things I hope to do here at BtB is look at just what the clubs’ international budgets buy, and which clubs do the best in the market. For now, I’d like to consider briefly how well a worldwide draft might answer the July 2 system’s criticisms.

The first one seems easy: assuming that a worldwide draft comes with a hard-slotting system, it will rein in international bonuses. It’s possible, I suppose, that more internationals would receive mid-level money, but I’d go so far as to surmise that controlling top-end bonuses is what makes the worldwide draft particularly appealing to Selig.

Likewise, a worldwide draft with hard-slots would level the playing field on a basic level. Certainly, some clubs would find or maintain advantages in scouting and development—particularly important in secondary markets, where inferior infrastructure (primarily, the absence of live games to evaluate) causes these advantages to play up—but I think we generally chalk this up to gamesmanship, as opposed to insurmountable monetary edge.

Could a worldwide draft also clean up the international market?

Again, I think the answer is a qualified yes. Chief among the major problems plaguing the international talent market are a lack of structure and a lack of transparency, and insofar as a worldwide draft can mitigate these issues, I think it will help.

Things may be changing already, but as of recently it has not been a given that every team has had the opportunity to scout the most highly-regarded international prospects, and it has been suggested to me by Dominican player-advisors that a reputation for spending aggressively can be a prerequisite for seeing the best prospects. Throw in the not-so-long-ago yet seemingly completely forgotten talk of bonus skimming, and you get the picture of a market with a pretty large capacity for shady dealings.

By tying compensation directly to draft position, you’d do a lot to ensure fair access to international talent. Likewise, it’s reasonable to think that a worldwide draft might draw increased media attention that in turn will have a cleansing effect.

(It’s seems likely that the increased attention paid to the last two July 2 periods has been a solid first step in this direction, and it’s possible that we’ve already reached a point where it will be increasingly difficult to get away with some of the long-accepted chicanery that has plagued the market.)

So what’s wrong with an international draft?

Frankly, it’s complicated, and I’m a little out of breath. For the moment, I’ll raise a couple of concerns, and resolve to dive back in at a later date.

One question is whether a draft would stifle the development of the sport in emerging markets. This is an argument that’s been made with regards to Puerto Rican baseball—that inclusion in the Rule 4 draft beginning in 1990 has caused Puerto Rico to fall behind its Caribbean Series rivals Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. I’ve wondered before whether the case has been overstated, but it’s a valid concern, especially for countries with less-developed baseball industries.

Another question is the simple logistics of scouting across cultures, languages, economies. Even assuming fair access to international prospects, how do you compare a 16-year-old Dominican with an eighth grade education to 22-year-old American college grad? Clubs are already doing this on some level, depending on how they allocate their scouting budgets, but it’s a certainty that a worldwide draft would present some mighty challenges to scouting departments league-wide.

Finally, what about the kids? There’s already the notion that any draft is unfair to the draftees, and I think a worldwide draft would be particularly unfair to international talent, which in nearly all cases will not have a college scholarship to fall back on. Not that we have much reason to believe that the commissioner’s office, the clubs, or the Players Association will lose too much sleep over that.

Mets salary by birthplace

Patrick Clark — Sun, 03 May 2009 17:56:55 -0000

Mets salary by birthplace

Couldn't figure out how to post the image (I'm a dunce). Follow the link to my blog to see Mets payroll by birthplace, and other good stuff...