Dalen__paul_a.2

Paul Dalen

  • joined Jan 24, 2013
  • last login Jul 13, 2014
  • posts 45
  • comments 145

I write for Corn Nation and Football Study Hall. I'm Operations Research Analyst for the US Army as a full-time gig...at least until I can afford to write about football stats for a living.

A Fan Of...

  • NCAAF Nebraska Cornhuskers
  • NFL Detroit Lions
  • NCAAB Nebraska Cornhuskers
User Blog

Bayes and College Football

3

How an 18th Century Presbyterian minister might help us better predict the 2014 national championship contenders.

Expected Wins and Picks for Remaining Games

6

Taking a look at the model's accuracy in its first season, and how it predicts the remaining games.

The Math Underwriting Pulaski Academy's Offense

19

Conventional wisdom is wrong. Kelley and the entire Pulaski Academy football team know it, and they're using it to win football games.

HuskerMath's Week 12 picks and expected wins

3

Expected win totals and actual wins should start merging after this week.

Week 12 DPE with history feature

+

Week by Week Drive-Point Efficiency performance history is now available.

HuskerMath expected wins and picks

+

Take Oregon, Baylor, and Nebraska this week.

Drive-Point Efficiency after 10 weeks

+

Despite its loss to UCF, Louisville remains among the elite performing teams this year. Baylor and Florida State separate themselves from the pack.

Expermental Advanced Stats for NU-NwU

2

Play Selection and Success Rates by down and by game

HuskerMath goes to the dogs for Week 10 Picks

2

Buddy the golden retriever debuts his week 10 picks.

HuskerMath's power rankings

6

The conference front-runners solidified their positions at the top, while Ohio State moves into the Big Ten #1 slot.

DPE ratings post-Week 9

6

It's getting crowded at the top.

Are Baylor and Michigan State any good?

37

Evaluating offenses and defenses by indexing them for quality of competition.

Predicting the Big Ten Division Winners

30

Peering into the crystal ball to predict the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.

Season Exp. Wins and Week 9 Picks

2

Updated Expected Wins and Picks for Week 9

HuskerMath's FBS Power Rankings

1

HuskerMath's initial FBS Power Rankings. Just in time to share the BCS computer hate.

Week 8 Drive-Point Efficiency

2

Baylor and Florida State asserting themselves as the most efficient teams in the FBS.

HuskerMath's Week 8 Picks and Updated Exp. Wins

4

HuskerMath's Week 8 Picks and updated expected wins for the FBS.

Drive-Point Efficiency: FSU dominates

6

The DPE charts continue to demonstrate that the most efficient teams on offense and defense are your national champion contenders. And Florida State is at the top of the list.

HuskerMath's picks and tweaks

5

HuskerMath offers a mea culpa for using bad data.

Week 5 Drive-Point Efficiency

6

To further illustrate the correlation between quadrant and win/loss record I am now using the size of the marker to illustrate a team's win/loss record. Larger is better.

Your Week 6 HuskerMath Picks

5

800,000 federal government employees and Lane Kiffin are not employed right now, but work in the HuskerMath lair of mystery and Diet Dr. Pepper never stops.

Indicators - Making sense of Nebraska 2013

18

The indicators don't look good for the 2013 Nebraska Cornhuskers. Turning this ship around will require a monumental effort.

Does Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Matter?

2

Is there a correlation between offensive and defensive drive-point efficiency and win-loss records?

HuskerMath's Week 5 picks

9

Using only on-field data can give rise to some interesting results in a prediction model. HuskerMath lets teams speak for themselves.

Charting offensive and defensive efficiency

4

Check out how efficient your team's offense and defense are at converting opportunities into points.

HuskerMath's Week 4 Picks

2

In Week 2 the model correctly predicted 82.5% of games. Things weren't quite so rosy in Week 3, with the model correctly predicting only 71.6% of games.

Looking At National Champion Coaches' Resumes

108

The fact that some coaches win national championships within a year or two of arriving at a schools belies a very important fact...prior to that arrival lies years of coaching experience at the...

It's A 2007 Déjà Vu All Over Again

15

There are numerous analogues to 2007 through Nebraska's first three games of 2013. 2007 was the year of the historically bad season under Kevin Cosgrove, the defense against which all other bad...

HuskerMath's Week 3 projections

10

Fewer FCS upsets made for a better week of predictions.

A new look at drive efficiency

11

A new attempt at assessing teams based on how efficiently they turn drives into points and keep their opponents from doing the same.

Showing 1 - 30 of 45 Older
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