1. Reality

Any talk of making the NCAA tournament last week as an at-large was nuts. Let's manage expectations people. An RPI in the 80s with 0 quality wins is not going to happen. If we somehow beat a Cal their RPI would have plummeted below 50 anyway. The reality is the PAC 12 will be lucky to have 2 teams at this point much less our having had any chance of an at-large. 16-2 or 17-1 in conference was our only shot and those dreams died somewhere in Oregon.

2. Composure:

This team is more frustrating than our crappy team 2 seasons ago. We were just bad then. This team is less than the sum of its parts. How else can you explain our record and our kenpom of 46? My eyes tell me the reason for this is we lack composure.

We look great at times almost like a tournament team. But when we get punched in the mouth or we faceadversity we melt down like chernobyl. I really think it's part system and part players. Howland's systemsdemands a guards that are NBA caliber. Our success came having guards like Farmar, Afflalo, Collison, and Westbrook.

Although I believe we have enough talent in Jones, Anderson, Lamb, and Powell to be more competitve the Howland system places too much pressure on them to make plays. Jones and Anderson simply lack the composure necessary to win games. They have played well when we are rolling as a team, but they lose it on the road and when we face adversity. Jones is a hot head and resorts to 1-on-1. Sure Anderson can make a shot down 10 to cut it to 7 with 3 minutes to play then get overamped like he did something special, but the reality is he is mediocre at best. He is the poster child for this last era of Howland basketball. They are seniors that don't lead.

I think this creeps over to the rest of the team. We complain on every foul call. Bad call or not one should reserve complaining to the head coach (who incidentally never does.. had he ever been T'd up?) Only on rare occasions should our players be glaring at refs. That is a loss of focus and mentally allows you to make excuses. It also leads to a team that can't win on the road.

Josh Smith not only needs to lose weight, but gain composure. Honestly I think with composure he would be great tomorrow more than the weight. Howland has brought up his going too fast which I agree with it. He also lets hard fouls on him go to his head. Some people play better mad, but Smith is not one of them. Smith always need to maintain his composure. He needs to not get mad, but also to not be so nice. Get that spot in the lane son without feeling sorry for that 220 lb boy guarding you. And get 4 players on the court that know how and when to deliver that ball to you.

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                                                          ---------------------->        

(in the way bringing an extra defender)  DW                        2g (gets screen then passes back into JS)

                                                                                                         JS (sets diag. screen for 2G then posts)

           (loafs and exchanges spots w PG) F                                  

                                                                              PG (loafs and exchanges spots with F)

NOTE: best way I can show tpying, hope it is kind of clear

This play run just 2x in the 1st half sums up a total lack of execution on a perfectly good play.  The play goes like this Josh Smith starting above the baseline screens low for the off guard.   He then gets immediately into a good spot on the low block.    The off guard is suppose to feed the big man there.   But on both occasions playing against a straight man that should net an easy catch in the post we make the same 2 mistakes.   Both times David Wear at the opposite block comes behind Smith bringing his man to the same side headed for the baseline 3 pt area.  

The 1st time with 12:20 in the half remaining Powell throws a weak pass that gets intercepted by taken by Wear's man and led to a basket on the other end.  Powell deserved some of the blame, but I think it was Bilas who unfairly laid it all on him.  Why the hell is Wear bring another defender and himself right where the pass is supposed to be for Smith?  

The 2nd time we ran this specific play Wear came at exactly the same time, but luckily Smith got the catch and the basket.  But again what the hell is Wear doing coming over?    Clearly it was by design.  Is that the design of this play?   If you want Wear to have a baseline jumper on the same side why would you not just start him on the same side in the corner with the guard and Smith?   Did Wear twice mistakenly come over to obstruct the play?   

The second thing I noticed on this play is that the F and PG cross paths to exchange spots as soon as the pass goes to the 2 guard.    It is possible Wear is emptying that back side for a PG to come underneath on the opposite side.. that would be true if on either occation the F set a hard screen for the PG or the PG ran hard to underneath.  On both occasions the players loafed to their spots.  I think these plays are indicative of the total lack of coaching and basketball IQ we are seeing out there.  I have more rambling general thoughts after the jump...

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is my word of the game...

why do I keep rooting for Zeke to foul out?  Howland needs to change his style.  Zeke can't run a team.  Our guards can't control the game at all.  Nelson is our best option to work the ball through.   Do we know how to feed the post?  Even against a man-2-man we can't give it to someone with his back to the basket.  The Wears I don't believe are awful they are just awful for what Howland insists on trying to do.   We hold the ball too much up top.   Nothing organically happens for this team because they don't seem to know what they are doing in the flow of an offense.  Zeke wants to take his man too much.   I just feel sick.  

I have another beef with Howland over the years.  Have we ever really developed back to the basket play?   Our effective center play has never come from in the post.  It's come from offensive rebounding and guards drawing and dishing.   Hollins was effective his sr year, but not in the post. Love wasn't really a post player he was just a hell of a basketball player.   Aboya for his 1 good season was more comfortable away from the basket.   Why to middle rate teams always have interior players that have a clue with their back to the basket and we never do?   Thinking back that big kid at Pitt Gray wasn't even a player to CBH got out of dodge.  I think he has no clue how to coach this team he has.  NONE!

That is my word for the day after our latest performance.    I am tired of blaming Gordon and Dragovic and Honeycutt and Reeves.   I think I know where the blame lies.   This is as terrible a coached team as I have ever seen at UCLA. That includes Lavin, Farmer, and Hazzard squads.    This team has more talent then the team two seasons ago, but amazingly has a chance to be worse.    

I am totally dejected about this.  I expected at worst a competitive team that should make the tournament and now at best we are playing for a .500 record and hoping for a PAC12 tournament run.    What is most irritating is a total failure to adapt for 2 entire games.   We needed to do something different to 'upset' a team like Middle Tennessee.   No zone defense in basketball history could yield the good looks our man2man defense does. 2 seasons ago I said we had to play zone and this is pretty much identical except with seemingly better players.     

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That is the best word to describe that performance.    That was eerily similar to the Fullerton Fiasco in 2009 except this team has a lot more talent.  Did Howland even coach in this game?   Did we do anything different.   We played island defense with players that can't cover their man.    When help came (if it did) it was too late.   Add to that an amazing lack of urgency down the stretch.  Do we have a press?   Are you kidding me?    What a total lack of energy and at least in this game I am going to blame the coach.   Zeke and Lamb were miserable, but the only strategic move that maybe was different was to tell your guards to get the ball inside only to seem them force crappy passes to the interior was abysmal.    This is too early to have to be teaching your team a lesson.  

Tonight I did see some decent individual additions that appears to make our team better with the Wears, Parker and even Powell.   However I also saw a total lack of tenacity.  They gave me no impression that we were even a tournament team much less a Top 25 squad.  If I had to pick tonight I would predict we will not be going to the tournament, but I will reserve my prediction for a few games.   We have too much talent to not dance in late March.  It is up to the coach to guide this ship and figure out a way to get them to play hard and as a unit.    It is inconceivable that he would actually think outside the box and press.   He has better man to man players than 2 years ago, but not by as much as he appears to think.  3 pt shooting difference is not a reason to lose a game to Loyola.  We should have been much better than them and gotten more easy baskets to render that statistic meaningless.  The reality is they got better shots and when you get better shots you make more shots and consequently make yourself a better looking team on the glass because defensive rebounding is easier.   

Last season we suffered some early bad games, but I had the gut feeling we were a tournament team.    Two years ago I knew after the Fullerton game we were terrible and headed for disaster.   Tonight I feel like we are unfortunately somewhere in between the last two teams, but frighteningly too close to two seasons ago.    You don't always have the exact players you want, so it will be interesting to see if real adjustments are made to get the best players on the court frequently.    I hope this season is not contingent on Jerime Anderson coming back to be a real good player because I would have severe doubts about our chances.    I hope my gut is wrong this season.

I hope the below charts work correctly.. Here is a comparison of coleman and franklin rushing.   My takeaway is just that.   These are 2 statistically similar running backs.  I would argue Coleman has the slight edge however.   One significant difference however is that fumbling issue.   Coleman has 1 fumble since his freshman season.  Franklin has improved since his freshman year, but he is still bad.  The columns list number of times a carry goes for each distance.  My thought process on categories were no gains and losses are bad, 1-3 doesn't get you a third of a 1st down, 4-9 is solid and will move chains consistently, good runs but not past the 2nd tier defense, and bigger runs.

                          <1     1-3      4-9      10-19     20+      fum   lost      fum%     car       yds       avg          

Coleman 2011       1     7          8            3          2          0        0         0%       21       152     7.24        

Coleman 2010      13   29        27           9         4           1        0         1%       82       487     5.94        

Coleman 2009      11   20        17           4         2           0        0         0%       54       244     4.52        

Coleman 2008      11   19        17           3         3           2        2         4%       53       284     5.36        

total                      36    75       69          19       11         3        2         1%      210     1167    5.56        

Franklin 2011        7     10         9            4         2            1       1         3%      32       209     6.53        

Franklin 2010       34     72       80          20        8           6      4           3%     214    1127     5.27        

Franklin 2009       26     50       35          11        4           9       2          7%     126      566     4.49        

total                       67    132     124        35       14          16      7         4%     372    1902     5.11        

                         td       car/td   % 10+      % 20+      % <1        % <0-3

Coleman 2011     2       10.50     24%         10%         5%         38%

Coleman 2010     5       16.40     16%          5%         16%         51%

Coleman 2009     1       54.00     11%          4%         20%         57%

Coleman 2008     2       26.50     11%          6%         21%        57%

total                   10      21.00     14%           5%         17%         53%

Franklin 2011      2        16.00     19%          6%          22%         53%

Franklin 2010      8        26.75     13%          4%          16%         50%

Franklin 2009      5        25.20     12%          3%          21%         60%

total                  15       24.80     13%           4%          18%          53%

coleman td length    avg 11.2 yds                                                                                  

Franklin td length   avg 16.33 yds

Although Franklin seems to be more of a home run threat Coleman still enjoys an advantage in pct of carries over 10 yds the last season and 2 games and 20 yds in Franklin's career.  Interestingly the short carry stats are similar as well.   Franklin probably gets thrown for more losses, but the 3 and under carries over their career are identical as a pct at 53.  

My bottom line is you better be Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson if you can't hold onto the football well.  I believe Neuheisal needs to send a message and not keep letting someone fumble.. especially if they have a backup that can do the job just as well getting half the carries.  

I am sure we all can agree that reasonable expectations are for UCLA to compete for a championship every season, but sometimes even elite programs have seasons that act as stepping stones toward that end.  This season I would give a conditional B to the job that was done with the assumption Howland finished that job by bringing back all the players on a very inexperienced squad. Yes we were maddeningly inconsistent and failed to close games properly. We need to be a more consistent 3 point shooting team. We need our ball handlers to be able to make plays down the stretch. We need Honeycutt to learn to get into a more dangerous position in the lane where his full talent can be on display. We need Smith to get in better shape so he can move those feet to not get in foul trouble and late in games to dunk that damn ball with authority. All of these things are achievable and I expect more than a few of them to happen.

If everyone stays this could and should be a championship caliber team. The reality is any advice from Howland that says these guys should go pro is just plain crappy advice. Also the coach should adapt to utilize perhaps the talent he has on hand. If Powell and De'end are ball players I definitely think some pressing and gambling on defense should be in order along with our stay at home man2man defensive style.  

One thing I really like about this team that rarely seems to get mentioned is how much they like to share the ball.   Perhaps this is true to a fault and hinders us late because no one can take over.   Sometimes our players actually think because Stover is open that is the right pass.    Personally though in all this is the part of our team that I really do appreciate.   They don't seem to care who does contribute and rarely do we take bad shots unless the shot clock becomes a factor.   Can a true team in today's game gain the trust of 5 players late to make fts and not turn the ball over.  Or will our guards and ball handling forward learn to handle late game pressure to get us easy looks?

Here are some past season grades (based on relative expectations) and achievable individual goals that will bring us to our big prize after the jump... 

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Updated (BN): For those keeping track Lavin's Johnnies just got destroyed by Georgetown and have now lost 5 out of last 6.

We may be getting lucky to have another out of conference opportunity to make an impression  thanks to a senior laden St. John's squad.   They are 3-0 in the Big East with a RPI of 7.   Don't even take a Lavin coached team for granted that is the 4th most experienced in the country and has 5 senior starters.   That being said they could lose their next 7 games.  

We will see soon if this team will be able to give us that out of conference opponent we might desparately need.   Oh by the way thanks Oregon State for hurting the Pac both out and now in conference.

Shout out to Darren Collison and the Indiana Pacers tonight!   They made their 1st 20 field goals in the 3rd qtr.   Only a McRoberts long 3-ptr miss late in 3rd was a blemish.  They ended the quarter 20 for 21 FG and 8 for 9 from 3 to score a whopping 54 pts.  

DC only scored 29 pts in the game on 12 for 14 FG shooting including 4 for 5 from 3 point range.

Bumped. Would be interesting to read others grading of Ben Howland's performance at UCLA year by year. GO BRUINS. -N

In concurrence with BN poll I have put together a year by year assessment of the program.. feel free to add yours.  I am curious how people viewed each season:

2004 – (Inc) too soon to grade for me
2005 – (A+) different attitude had taken hold
2006 – (A+) thanks to emergence of Hollins
2007 – (A) showed our guts, but offensive inability gets exposed.. especially when you just can’t stop a team like Florida you have to generate good shots.
2008 – (B) too much talent to get owned in that final 4 against Memphis, this is when I began to really grow concerned about our bouts of stagnation on offense.
2009 – (A-) unlike most I actually think he did a decent job given the talent.. this should have been a decent down year type of season. We just had no interior defense with Aboya improving remarkably, but stuck as a center we couldn’t hope for much more than what we ended up with. In hindsight this grade could be lowered I suppose given that our frosh got very few minutes. The grade for the current year to date and his over all grade are after the jump.

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Random thoughts after watching this debacle on dvr...

1. I hope I never see a zone with ND, JK, MR on the backline again.  On the flip side I would love to bobo, RN and TH on the frontline in a zone for easily our best shotblocking and rebounding trio.  

2. JA to a screen is like a moth to a flame.   I think he tries to run into them... even in a zone.  

3. JK is just as clueless on defense as ND, but at least he tries hard.   That one where he hedged way out on a screen set away from the ball and screener rolled unabated to the rack and JK had to give up a foul to prevent a lay up was the all clueless play of the game for me.     ND never would have recovered on that play to get the foul by the way because he would have given up.

4. We are not nearly as bad as our record and we can blame the players all day, but the coach keeps putting them in there for careless turnovers.   The most careless of them today for once at least the honor went to MR instead of JA.  MR should never be a primary ballhandler at the top anyway.. he should be on the wing to receive passes and do something with them.  

5a. I am not buying the effort thing whenever we lose and the passion was there when we played Cal.  We pretty much played the same game on both ends, but Cal forced and bricked enough 3-ptrs to help nullify our careless turnovers.  We also despite our bad free throw shooting made it a point to get it to the post and got to the line.    We put no pressure on their bigs to defend throughout the game.     Playing to our size should be a point of emphasis in my opinion instead of seeing that dreaded small unit that can't handle the ball consistently well anyway.

5b. I am not buying the lack of talent thing either. Lack of experience with our most talented players I'll buy that, but there is certainly some talent not getting the minutes, not unlike last season.

6. TH played just as well as RN this game.   And on offense sure he is not aggressive at the moment trying to score his, but he is the only player who consistently looks for an opportunity to feed the post.   Most of our guards are overtrained to whip the ball back and forth up top, but sometimes you need to have the patience and awareness to allow your interior player to get position to receive a pass inside.   JA ML and MR rarely if ever think interior 1st unless it's a drive and draw play.    Sure TH may choose a bad angle and turn the ball over, but experience will alllow him to make a better choice soon enough.  

7. I love to watch TH get after rebounds as well.   Watch carefully one day someone like JK rebound.. check out how many times if he gets to the ball he actually is either coming down or out of balance.   I would love to go through tape to see if he has ever caught the ball at the top of his limited jump.   TH goes for the ball and his timing is often close to if not perfect when he leaps.  It's not just the ability to leap it's the timing.    TH definitely gets bodied out of position at times, but he is one of a couple players that know how to go and get the ball.  

8. ML's game was not as bad as his 7 turnovers.   He got a travel falling after he got after a tough board, he got at least one dubious charge, and he was credited with one that Roll took his eyes off and it went off his head.   He also made some plays and got us baskets no other player on the team could make.  Yes he was out of control especially on a couple of occasions on the break, but he is also going through his 1st real year.     I can't say that for the careless ones MR and ND made.

9a.  Have we ever been a real good fastbreak team in recent memory?   Sure we have been able to convert turnovers into easy baskets or we have had the most exquisite outlet passer to play in college basketball in recent memory, but have we ever run a good, fundamental, 3-on-2 break?   We have players that can break down a man and set up a player in a 2-on-1 break, but do we know how to balance the court properly on those breaks?   We just seem to have bad spacing frequently allowing a defender to more easily defend 2 players.   We also have players get out ahead of each other.   I just get the sense this is a facet CBH never works on.  The assumption being the better ball players can just make plays.. which has been true.   ML is currently the only one who can make plays and quick moves in transition to get baskets, but it's individual ability and it's also risky when a defender guesses right which caused at least one turnover in this game.  

9b.  I also think CBH has one out of bounds play.. it goes something like this from under our basket area.. 3 players independently run around hoping their defender forgets to cover them  then the inbounder throws a long pass into the backcourt.    I have never seen anything different and can only assume this is another area we do not really practice.  Then again defensively we failed miserably on at least 2 occasions to cover that guy running down the middle of our defense on an inbounds, so maybe there is something to it if we run it in practice against ourselves?

10. Bobo's 5 minutes and BL's 3 minutes?   BL did have a super sloppy turnover, but he should get more than that.   And Bobo did nothing wrong that I could point out.   That being said this season is about the future and it is horse puckey to say they couldn't get minutes in the 2nd half.

I can remember at least one southpaw sf/pf prospect in the past who was the epitome of  a great competitor and winner... hopefully Terrence Jones can continue that bruin legacy. A portion about this maturing young man below.. .

The light bulb finally went on during the middle of Jones' sophomore year, when he realized he needed to get his act together both on and off the court if he wanted to reach stardom.

"I started working harder in practice and at school," says Jones. "It's what I needed to do to mature and stop acting like a little kid and accept my responsibilities."

"He just really didn't take it serious," adds his mother. "A lot of the boys who play sports seem to think that academics and sports don't go hand in hand. He quickly figured that out as I reminded him every day. Now he says, 'Mom, I got this.'"

It is a decent, short read for those interested in a bruin prospect.

Well the boys showed some ability and heart tonight.   As it turns out our maligned guard play is not my biggest area of long term concern.   JA did earn some minutes back, although I would still rather see them coming off the bench at the moment.    Roll is a solid citizen and Lee showed that he can be a bonafide star down the line.   Which brings me to my greatest concern and why I think we should go bigger.

Obviously our great guard play had enabled us to make our recent return to college hoops elite.    But what seems to be overlooked is the importance centers have played in our success.    Our first run was fueled by a Ryan Hollins senior season epiphany half way through the year.   Lorenzo Mata, despite my personal reservations early in his career, manned the middle well enough as a legitimate center to allow another run.  Then Kevin Love's greatness goes without saying.   But what gets missed in having a center that can get the job done was how it allowed the Luc to be what he needed to be for the squad.    Sure he was defensively good enough to guard opposing centers in a pinch, but his effectiveness logging the majority of his minutes there would have diminished his greatness.    Last season we were forced to make due with a terrific Aboya elevating his game immensely for his senior season.   Unfortunately he became our defacto center and the end result against Villanova left us all knowing despite his incredible season he is not a center.  

We are now in a predicament where Reeves Nelson appears to be a special type of player.    But watching him battle players like Aldrich and Varnado as well as other centers to come for the majority of his minutes will diminish what his real value will be if we can get a real center in there to free him up on the front line.    Sure we can get away with this playing opponents without big men or those that play 3 guards or go small, but to take it to the next level it behooves the bruins to find a real center who can at minimum 'get in the way'.  That is to say block some shots, take up space, rebound a little, keep balls alive, force opposing centers to work hard, etc.. Unfortunately that leaves us with Morgan.  Morgan shows the size and strength at times that he in fact can man the middle well enough, then the next minute he tries to finish a play in the most impotent of fashion.  I am sure it must be painful for Howland in practice.    And that brings me back to Mata and Hollins and even Fey who had a trial so to speak.    He forced them all on me.   I remember thinking will Fey once in a while can make a shot, Hollins once in a while got after it to block a shot or grab a rebound and Mata I am not sure what he is doing, but he did get in the way.   At times I thought we have better players than this and it was too much, but in the end it was the right thing to do.   Last season due probably to higher expectations than in the past he went away from his own system in a sense by not giving Morgan the minutes to improve and therefore making his sophomore season our painful learning season.    Now I realize we have Josh Smith coming in next season, but does anyone really believe he will be able to play that hedge well enough as a freshman to see the court in a meaningful way much next season?    I really and truly believe CBH knows he needs to wipe that grin off Morgan's face and ride him or any other big man who wants the minutes as far as they can help take our program.   If only for Reeves Nelson we must get minutes from any center necessary.   At minimum Smith could use a real sparring partner as a freshman.

I would assume in a practice situation Morgan must be guarding JK and ND who are probably money shooting from the perimeter in practice and exposing his worst flaws.   That however is not what his real game experience nor his critical importance to our long term health is about.    The only real experience a kid like that will get is in the game much to our dismay.   Learning what is like to take his licks and what he really needs to do to give it back.   Punish him with minutes until he either gets a clue or transfers out.    "Kid this is who we need you to be now show up or move on."   In my opinion we worried too much about making JK an interior player that he is not.  He does not have the legs to hold his spot or leap in there no matter how much strength he added.    In the end I think that was his downfall.   He is a shell of a basketball player that now unfortunately may have his career ended.   Now we have a wiry kid like Lane.   I cringe when I heard the comparison to JK and not because of Keefe's shortcomings, but because I am worried we will try to make him something he is not.   I am not sure how many people have played enough on the interior to know it is tough to battle in there and still be a good shooter.   It is as mentally tedious as it is physically.   When I hear Keefe hits 20 straight jumpers in warmups it did not surprise me in the least.    This is another reason why getting that center and pushing them as far as they can go will allow your other basketball players to flourish.   

Lastly I would love to see Stover get some minutes somehow especially if Keefe is now done for the season and he is not going to redshirt.   If he as at least a shot blocker than that is something of merit that we could use and develop.

Sorry for the rambling.  I am just trying to keep hope alive in my mind.  And here is a minutes breakdown from recent seasons...

stats to look through for hollins, mata and even fey if you desire.
2005
2006
2007

Morgan did not log enough to get on the breakdown last season.. and has logged a lower percentage and less effective in terms of rebounding, but more effective blocking shots in a tiny sampling thus far this season through the 1st 8 games.
2009
2010

Personally I would like to see ML, MR, TH, RN, JM starting. I would like to test bobo and see what he has. I would protect him and MR some by mixing in zone. It’s a crazy trial for me, but I saw signs on offense if he can’t get experience. Initially he was an easy double, but in the 2nd half he showed more awareness actually passing out of a double to TH, who actually threw it back in on a repost and a nice bank. No offense, but ND will not do that once this season. I don’t care how many boards ND gets he lapses big time either boxing out or just not battling someone he should be at least battling for a board. Granted JM is hesitant to mix it up, but I think with time and other players banging him he will self-motivate more to not get beat. ND gets some rebounds because of his length on tip outs over the top, but other than that I am pretty sure he has never boxed out anyone.

The reality is that when Keefe and ND are in we have 2 players on the interior that can’t hold their spot. RN is by far the best player that can hold his spot and even move someone out with his lower body. He also has some surprising hops and a knack for the ball. He should be logging most of the interior minutes from here on out. At least bobo is not easy to move.. he does however need to be scolded to find a body and get it on someone when rebounding. TH actually is the only other guy who can go and get it on the glass and he should be starting soon. I can live with ND playing decent minutes, but I’d rather have him come in as a specialist to knock down some shots.

Until JA proves he can play in control and make a consistently positive impact I can’t see him getting more than 15 minutes. ML and MR should get the bulk of the minutes and JA should spell some rest for them and that is it. I would rather see Moser, TH getting minutes with both Roll and Lee on the court than have a smaller lineup with JA, MR, ML. I think we need to play with size and get anyone active in there who can get us extra chances with our inability to shoot the ball consistently.

In all I think we gave our best effort tonight. We seemed in general to have a good attitude out there. I don’t think there were nearly as many breakdowns and players were helping out more albeit sometimes late. Better than not at all. Our days of being able to contain man-to-man with little or no help off the dribble are gone right now. MR and JA can’t stay in front of any decent guards, so I can’t see how it’s possible to play 40 minutes of tough man to man defense without cheating our help to their aide and consequently leaving other big men open for passes or easy 2nd chances off misses.

I am probably the biggest cynic around, but I have not given up hope on this year yet. As far as the committee is concerned we are 0-1 without gordon and with honeycutt in a loss to the number 1 team in the country. Yes that is wishful thinking, but I do not think the cupboard is bare in this program. And I am certainly not convinced the pac 10 is littered with more than a couple programs that have more talent than us this season.

Since I got flamed for an off the cuff post about offensive deficiencies and called out for a lack of statistical backup I took the suggestion to go to the kempom site and break it down.   I posted this as a reply, but no one is probably still reading it so I am reposting it below....   

offense                                           eft fg%          TO %           OFF reb%     FTM/FGA         raw   adj

2008 UCLA[1] (P10)                          52.2 ( 75)       18.6 ( 47)       39.3 ( 10)       27.4 ( 89)         11    7

2007 UCLA[2] (P10)                          53.5 ( 41)       18.4 ( 36)       33.5 (166)       21.9 (274)       41   23

2006 UCLA[2] (P10)                          53.2 ( 36)       22.3 (224)       36.2 ( 50)       26.6 (112)       54   28

2005 UCLA[11] (P10)                        50.9 ( 94)       22.0 (211)       33.1 (123)      27.6 ( 83)      120   79

  defense

2008 UCLA[1] (P10)                          46.5 ( 37)       21.7 (131)       27.8 (  9)       25.6 (  9)            8    3

2007 UCLA[2] (P10)                          47.6 ( 76)       23.2 ( 54)       29.9 ( 38)       30.2 ( 47)          10    2

2006 UCLA[2] (P10)                          45.9 ( 37)       22.1 (104)       29.1 ( 49)       31.7 ( 73)          23    3

2005 UCLA[11] (P10)                         49.4 (172)       19.8 (245)       28.8 ( 46)       33.0 ( 96)      133   58

I may have overstated my disenchantment with the offense making it seem like I am displeased with Howland.  If I had to grade his tenure it would be the best since I have been watching UCLA basketball since 1981 or so... an A-.   If I have 1 critiique of the tenure using your kenpom it would be to point out our offensive ability trails our defensive ability.   the adjusted final rankings each year reflect that.   Clearly I think we would all agree last year was our best offensive team both with our eyes and the final number.  

Notice in the breakdown where we really shined was the offensive glass which propelled our final adjusted number.  In the other categories we don't finish higher than 47th in 2008.   We have clearly improved year to year over the last 4 in the adjusted number.   Obviously minus Love/mbah a moute/mata/and westbrook gone it is a ton to replace and will most likely crush our 10th rating in offensive rebounding.   It is illogical to expect to improve this year on offense unless we attempt something different in my opinion. 

Here is my point on expecting to shut down superior offensive teams with a great defense...all over our big wins came against teams who were not statistically among the top few teams, but our losses were against superior offensive teams that would be difficult to keep under 70.

offense                                             eft fg%              TO %          OFF reb%    FTM/FGA        raw   adj

2008 Kansas[1] (B12)                        56.6 (  5)       19.1 ( 61)       37.8 ( 24)       25.7 (161)           2    2

2008 Memphis[1] (CUSA)                   52.8 ( 53)       16.5 (  8)       38.3 ( 19)       24.8 (193)          9    4

2007 Kansas[1] (B12)                        54.5 ( 20)       20.0 ( 94)       37.8 ( 38)       23.9 (213)         27   17

2007 Florida[1] (SEC)                        59.6 (  1)       20.7 (132)       37.6 ( 42)       30.2 ( 41)           1    1

2006 Gonzaga[3] (WCC)                    52.3 ( 55)       17.5 ( 12)       33.7 (115)       35.5 (  2)           1    1

2006 Memphis[1] (CUSA)                  51.2 ( 91)       21.0 (150)       40.7 (  6)       26.9 ( 98)           37   29

2006 LSU (4] (SEC)                          50.1 (131)       21.9 (196)       38.4 ( 18)       25.9 (130)         114   50

2006 Florida[3] (SEC)                         56.9 (  3)       20.7 (139)       34.5 ( 88)       30.3 ( 22)          2    2

The exception was that dramatic, frenetic win over gonzaga in a miracle comeback.

gonzaga's defense however was not nearly up to par with the other squads that beat us or in Kansas case went on to win the title the last 3 years.

defens

2006 Gonzaga[3] (WCC)                    49.4 (156)       18.4 (312)       31.2 (121)       32.0 ( 76)      223 178

2006  Florida[3] (SEC)                       45.0 ( 15)       22.4 ( 92)       30.9 (108)       29.4 ( 42)          19    5

2007 Florida[1] (SEC)                        45.2 ( 18)       18.8 (290)       28.1 (  8)       27.7 ( 13)           14   12

2008  Kansas[1] (B12)                       44.3 (  9)       21.9 (114)       28.8 ( 23)       31.0 ( 64)           4    1

2008  Memphis[1] (CUSA)                  43.4 (  6)       21.9 (119)       29.2 ( 36)       31.7 ( 73)            2    4

Again I believe these statistics reflect that our offense needs to improve to get over that hump.   Clearly we can't be championship contenders every year and perhaps howland can work his magic and we can grit our way to a nice run this season.   Also I believe this system contrary to the mainstream media's opinion is absolutely perfect for getting his players into the NBA.  He forces them to play lockdown straightup defense and the NBA loves that.   No one is more prepared fundamentally on defense to play in the NBA than Howland players.    That being said winning titles may require something else or some serious ungodly offensive talent given our framework at the moment.  

I apologize for appearing to bandwagon losses.  I read here all the time and appreciate on the insight.   I do care as much about football, but I only post because I have something different to say.  What more could I have said about Dorrell's horrible tenure that was football's Lavin/Farmer/Hazzard tenures rolled into one.   I am not going crazy with the tough season we are having at the moment in football because I believe we will be going in the right direction at the moment and that is well covered territory.   My only issue that seems to ride against prevailing opinion is just this one item about our offense. 

I would be happy to post on wins when I feel it was not up to snuff as well.  I think we escape many games thanks to our defense and timely play over the last few years.   I also think we have played some excellent offensive games along the way just not consistently.  I would be happy to throw a mention on those moments as well if it will keep me from getting dumped on.

Sorry for the long post, but I felt the least I could provide was a more substantive analysis.