I was wondering today if the NATs were the worst team in recent memory at CF, so I went into fan graphs and got all the data on NATS CFs from 2005.  I concluded we were only the 5th worst team.   Nonetheless doing the research made me miss a few players we had in the past.  these numbers are exclusively as a CF.

Name G PA wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR

Ryan Church 317 1061 0.359 118 13.6 7.3

Nyjer Morgan 185 789 0.312 89 16.3 3.9

Brad Wilkerson 148 661 0.326 99 3.9 2.7

Justin Maxwell 122 260 0.316 91 7.8 1.5

Preston Wilson 68 280 0.331 103 1 1.3

Marlon Byrd 152 472 0.301 81 8.4 1.3

Nook Logan 145 449 0.299 78 4.2 1.1

Ryan Langerhans 176 326 0.321 92 -1.2 0.7

Alex Escobar 33 99 0.408 150 -8.6 0.2

Endy Chavez 7 12 0.312 90 1.3 0.2

Rick Ankiel 24 101 0.280  70 0 0.1

Lastings Milledge 145 613 0.319 90 -17.5 0.1

Luis Matos 14 15 0.224 30 0.8 0

Corey Patterson 5 15 0.151 -22 1 -0.1

Damian Jackson 67 135 0.285 69 -6.2 -0.6

Brandon Watson 39 96 0.213 24 -0.1 -0.6  

Thoughts:

1)Why did we ever get rid of Marlon Byrd?  He has has an allstar appearance since he left here.   

2) Is fangraphs correcting history?  didn't Dukes and Harris get some CF in the fairly recent past?  Maybe it is best we forget those Dukes in CF innings and Fangraphs is trying to help.

3)  Looking at At bats and WAR.  Ankiel is not helping us much in CF.  Nook Logan was better as was Langerhans (and they batted at RFK)! 

4) Alex Escobar could hit... look at that wOBA!  I dreamed about him helping the team a few years back.  Injuries suck!  Here is a toast to the future of knee replacement surgery!

5)Millage sure was dreadful!  

6) If you divide WAR by at bats (a stat I made up) then Church was the best CF the Nationals (not expos) ever played (ignoring Chavez), but second was Justin Maxwell.  Third was Morgan.  4th Wilkerson.

7) Why is J Max not a NAT getting 300-350 at bats a season?  Do not bother, I will never understand.  

8) I remember Chavez.  I liked him!

9)I Wonder if Nook Logan is still playing?

10) He maybe an undeservedly large ego who sometimes slides a bit to hard into catchers, but  Morgan can catch line drives... period!  This team would probably be winning more with him than without him!

Desmond has a career .295 on base percentage against right handed pitching.  WTF with him leading off on opening day!!!  Ankiel is a career .323 vs righthanders.  He is a BAD option but probably far better than Desmond.  Morgan was .333 on base vs RHP last season.    Desmond is a maybe, at best, for 20 steals and so is Ankiel.  We have far and away the worst leadoff situation in baseball.  It was bad with Morgan, it is downright ugly without him.

Werth:  I expect him to lead this team in onbase percentage, extra base hits, outfield defense and steals.  Of the extra base hits, around 25 should be homers (which means most wont be homers).   In other words, I really like him batting second.  I would not mind if he lead off either (on this team).  

Zim: maybe he should bat 4th.  According to Tango Tiger's "THE BOOK" of baseball and also, of course, Bill James, historically over a full season no spot in the lineup comes to bat with nobody on and two outs more than the third spot.  With our awful leadoff situation, our third spot will do it more than most.  I know it is considered an honor to be a third batter, but Zims at bats are being wasted there.  I would rather have him bat with several people on base.

Larouch batting 4th?  He has 20-25 homer power and a decent glove.  He is a 5th batter not a 4th batter.  He dramatically improves our infield defense, but he is not good enough to bat 4th.  3rd?

I like Morse in left field but he wont be much help with his glove.  I expect 20-25 homers and room to improve.

Ankiel should lead off against right handed pitching and bench against lefthanders.  I see no other role for him that helps the team.  He is widely regarded as a butcher defensively among stat oriented people (other than his arm).  His arm is first rate and, with his power, keeps him in the game.  However, arms do not matter if you misplay the ball so badly you can't make a throw.  Nonetheless, he will hit 20-25 home runs off right handers this season if healthy.

I see 20 homers from Espinosa as likely.  Plus, he looks good defensively at second.  We have decent power on this team.  Could have five 20 or more homerun guys with good health.

IROD: Can't hit anymore.  Sure he can still defend well, but the bat is gone.  I hope he spends a great deal of time teaching Ramos.  I would prefer Ramos (or Flores) to get most of the time behind the plate this season.  ramos onbases really well so I would give him a shot at the leadoff spot personally .  Sure zero speed, but at least he would be onbase when everyone else homers.

The pitching was as I expected today.  Only 2 runs over 9 against a very good hitting club.  With our improved defense I would not be surprised if we finish the season around average or maybe better in baseball for ERA this season.  I am totally serious!  I am calling a mid to low 4s team ERA.   That is respectable.  Half the problem the last few years with our pitching was downright dreadful defense.  We have  fixed the infield and right field.  On paper our infield should be very good glovewise this season, and that should really help the pitching staff a ton.

 I expect us to be darn near last in runs even with the power as we should be bad at getting on base.  

One last thought,  Norris onbased around 400 over a full season in the minors last season.  We should change him off catcher and rush that bat to the majors!!!  Seriously!  we have Ramos and Flores, so we are easily set for years at catcher.

Stats courtesy of fangraphs

FIP (fielding independent pitching)  rank in game also given

2005   4.16  (11th)  ~singing~ Livan, Livan made his money

2006   5.03  (28th)

2007   4.92  (30th)

2008   4.71  (26th)

2009   4.82  (28th)

2010   4.12  (19th)  yep best ever FIP 

ok sure offense in the game was down this year, but it still does not change the number and 2005 to 2008 were in RFK

 

Team UZR/150 (a measure of defense,  zero is absolutely average and positive numbers are good)

2005   +6.8 (3rd best in the game that year  just missed playoffs despite only solid pitching and an real bad offense)

2006   -1.6  (22nd)

2007   -.2  (15th)

2008    -1.0  (16th)

2009    -3.8 (25th,  somehow we were ranked first of all teams in September, but last most of the year)

2010   -.6 (18th but clearly improved over last season)

This team has not been respectable glovewise since 2005 ended  (hmmmm...maybe we should have kept more expos around)

 

wOBA (an advanced offensive stat that tries to include more)

2005   .307 (30th)

2006   .326  (21st)

2007   .315  (28th)

2008   .309  (29th)

2009   .326  (17th)

2010  .313  (20th)

Obviously we have never had a good scoring team any season including this one. 

I was goofing around with some Nats box scores today and I noticed that the Nats only real period of winning coincided with Justin Maxwell being on the major league roster.  That made me dive in a bit more.

When Jmax has played any part of a game the Nats are 13-7 (.650). Without him we are 20-35 (.363).  That is a real big difference!

In games Jmax played in and we lost, he was on the field for the losing run only twice.  Both games were blow outs 11-7 game on April 18 in which Marquis gave up 10 runs in the first inning.  10-4 game on April 20th in which Scot Olson gave up 3  homeruns.  4 of the other 5 loses jmax was brought in with the team behind.  in the 5th loss we lost in the 13th on a blown play in right field by Guzman.  Jmax had started and was pinch hit for earlier when we had a lead.

In games in which the Nationals lost and Jmax played he had 16 plate appearances.  hit got 12 ABs, 4 walks and 3 hits so reached base safely .438 percent of the time.  Oddly he has rarely helped the offense in wins.  He had 1 hit (a game winning home run) in games we won and he appeared. 9 walks and one homerun in 30 plate appearances in wins (21 ABs).

Jmax has a UZR/150 in RF of +24.  That is ungodly good. 

I have no idea if any of this means anything more than weird streaks happen, but Jmax is a lucky charm with ungodly defensive skills. He has been offensively challenged when the team is already winning and a real tough out when we are losing in 2010. 

Napoleon once said it was better to be lucky than good.   Lets get JMax back on the major league roster just to see if we start winning again!!!

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During the game feed the other night I was involved in a discussion about the merits of Jason Bergman where I stated he was probably better than 20% of all major league pitchers and that the team was hasty is designating him for assignment based on 2.1 innings of admittably very poor work.   I was asked for some proof.  Well here is some (admittedly not definitive) proof whereI try and  somewhat  succeed in showing I was not far off in my estimate:

1. career: In his career Bergman has been worth 0.4 WAR that is a tiny smidgen above replacement.  If you take out his awful two innings this season that goes up to .6 WAR for his career.  So according to that measure he is a tiny bit better than a AAAA relief pitcher for his career.

            FIP          ERA

2005  3.53         2.75  (alomost everyone looked good in 2005 for the Nats)

2006  5.42         6.68  (he was solid then had 2 real real awful starts before he left with arm issues)

2007  4.92         4.45

2008  5.12        5.02

2009  5.08       4.50

projected by ZIPS  for 2010  ERA/FIP  4.72

2. Last season 569 ptichers pitched at least 10 innings in the majors.  Bergman's ERA was 4.50 which was 308th best, so 46% of all pitchers who pitched at least 10 innings had a worse ERA last season.  But I am a smart guy and I know ERA sucks.  Well bergman's FIP was 4.72.  406 guys had a better FIP than Bergman or 29% were worse.  So more than 20% of major league pitchers were worse.

3.  Well 10 innings is to low for me to believe you.  Bergman had 48 innings last season.  Soout of 40 IP or more  guys, Bergman's era was 244th out of 387 (37% were worse) and FIP 317 out of 387 or 18% were worse.  Among 50 innings which is about a full season of work for a low end relief pitcher his  FIP  was 281/340 or 17.4% were worse.  Jamie Moyer and Tim Redding are two familiar names to Natstown who had exactly  the same FIP as Bergman last season (granted they were starters and that is not exactly the same, but I didn't know most of the other guys)

Now obviously my stats above are far from perfect as I do not distinguish guys by role or league etc etc, but it is fair to say that the bulk of long relievers are bad relievers and probably fall into the group that was worse than Bergman last season.   Last season was among Bergman's worst but he had issues with his arm.  It is likely he is better than last season.  And if he lives up to the Zips projection estimate (4.72) then he is getting closer to actually being an average major league pitcher. 

Bergman is in no way a star (not even average) but he is a tad above replacement most of the time.  Major league teams can clearly (and frequently do)  do worse than slotting Bergman as the 6th or 7th guy out of the pen.  

Here is an article from Rotographs on Ian Desmond at SS.  I hope desmond gets a serious shot this season as he looks ready enough to me.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/a-desmond-in-the-rough

He does not mention that Desmond made 17 errors last season in the minors, but errors are somewhat coachable and can be improved.  All the other aspects of defense such as range and arm Desmond has plenty enough to be good. 

Dave Cameron over at fangaphs actually has the balls to say that Josh Willingham is nearly as good as Jason bay.  

 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/willingham-and-bay

Although bloggers stuck on counting stats did not agree with him, I have to say his arguements are fairly solid.  My own quick analysis shows Bay has had 516 more plate appearences than the hammer 2006-2009 add in  park effects, and team quality differences  and you have accounted for much of the difference in their counting stats (HRs, RBIs, Runs, etc) over that time.  Note: Willingham is 5-6 runs per full season better defensively than Bay which closes the gap a little more.  Bay is paid $66 million over 4 years and we get Hammer for $4.6 million!  We have a  steal of the highest order!   Here is hope we give/get Hammer 600 At bats this season.

This is copy and posted from FanGraphs (Erik Manning).  It shows which players were the best at running the bases without counting steals.  In other words, who were the best at taking extra bases and avoiding outs on the base paths in baseball last year.  Note Two Nats Regulars on the tops in baseball list.  These are significant numbers because by Guzman being worth 6 runs you can add .6 to his WAR which makes him worth 1.5 WAR last season (Dunn was worth 1.2 WAR not factoring in baserunning).  War does not count this type of baserunning just steals and caught steals.  I tried to figure out how Erik Manning got these numbers, so I could list all the NATS, but I am unsure.  I know that among the worst last season were Dukes and Gonzales (worst in the game not just NATS) and I am sure they were in the minus 4 or worse catagory, but I am unsure by how much.  If I figure it out I will post it.

 

"Feel free to add these numbers in to a player’s total WAR to get a better picture of what these individuals were worth on the diamond.

	         Runs
Michael Bourn	   8
Chone Figgins	   7
Emilio Bonifacio   6
Cristian Guzman	   6
Dexter Fowler	   6
Chase Utley	   5
Ryan Zimmerman	   5
Rajai Davis	   5
Colby Rasmus	   5
Ichiro Suzuki	   5
Brandon Phillips   5

Baserunning matters, but it doesn’t matter a whole lot — at least not for the vast majority of players. Only 18 players contributed 4 or more runs, and only 13 players hurt their teams by 4 or more runs"

From Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-dunn

Dunn was by far the worst defensive player in the game last season (by more than 20 runs given up over Hawpe).  He has been the worst player in the game over the last 5 seasons combined.  His defense singlehandedly costs his team an average of 4.6 games a season over the last 5 years That is approximately the difference between the talents of Daniel Cabrera and AJ Burnett in 2008.

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Here are the season ending stats for the current NATS.  Almost none of these stats samples are large enough to be a true representation of a players abilities (fielding needs 3 seasons), but here they are anyway.  I deleted, in most cases, NATS we traded because all of them got better away from us

Here are the WARs for the Nats at season end.  I only include guys still with the team:

Continue reading this post »

Austin Kearns is just about the most overpaid player in baseball, and I have heard many calls for him to be released lately, but he is not without positive value for this team.  So I am arguing we should just let him ride out his contract on the bench.  I went out and looked at fangraphs data today and right now Kearns has generated more value than Dukes for this franchise this season in fewer at bats.  How is this possible?  Well Kearns actually does two very important, but highly underrated things,  well: avoid outs and play his position.  Kearns has an above average onbase percentage of .336 (Dukes ,314).  That ranks better than 9 AL franchises and 11 NL franchises.  His UZR/150 as a RF in fan graphs is a positive 4.1 and it is his worst year ever for that stat.  Zero is completely average.  Dukes is 1.0 thus far in RF.  Kearns also is an intelligent baserunner who lacks speed.  Which is to say he rarely makes mistakes on the basepaths unlike Dukes (fast and stupid).  Kearn's big, huge, epic, beyond belief weakness is an absolute total lack of power (slg .306).  Which, granted, is huge.  Nonetheless I do not think he deserves to be outright cut, but rather be a bench player who can avoid outs and play a good defense in right field until his contract runs out.  You could do alot worse on your bench.

Dunn has played in 581 innings for the Nats this year.  He has been worth .8 Wins above Replacement in that time.  Last season, Langerhans played 216 innings for the NATs and was worth .8 Wins above Replacement.  So in 2.5 times more playing time Dunn has returned the same amount of total WAR as Langerhans did last year. 

Langerhans has played 91 innings this year for Seattle.  He has been worth .2 WAR.  That is less than 1/6 Dunn's playing time.  .2*6 = 1.2 WAR.   Seattle has gotten 1.2 WAR out of Langerhans and Endy Chavez this season in 484 innings of work.  No wonder they are winning team.

If Langerhans had played every inning in LF that Dunn has played for this team and played as well as he did last season, then we would have likely won 1-2 more games this season than we have with Dunn.  Yep Langerhans would have helped us more than Dunn.

By the way, Dunn cost 15x as much per year to play.

I got my data from Fangraphs on July 12th. 

I really like Dunn and hope he gets traded to a team like seattle that Would DH him so he can be much happier and win!

It is my belief that what this team needs most of all is dominating middle inflielders.  Guys that can hit and catch better than average. It occurs to me that the top defensive team in the NL is trying to trade its second baseman and Shortstop... the Pirates.  Jack Wilson is the best defensive SS in the NL according to the new defensive metrics over at Fangraphs and an average hitter as well.  Freddy Sanchez is a current all star for the pirates, a great hitter for a second basemen, and a plus defender.  If we could get them for roughly Guzman, Andy Hands, money and a couple of minor leaguers,  we would have them locked up all of next season.  The rookie pitchers would be in 7th heaven because they would have potentially outstanding defenders at first, second, ss, and third.  With Morgan in CF. Our current ERA would plummet with this trade.   Next season we would have the best all round inflield in the NL and I think we would contend.  Granted neither of these guys are youngsters at 31, but who cares we could contend next season (assuming our entire pitching rotation does not have a sophmore slump). Lastly, it's always good Karma to rip off the Pirates.  Just a real crazy idea.

Apparently we are not alone in seeing several lopsided home run calls. 

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20090529_Paul_Hagen__Mets__latest_replay_home_run_anything_but_conclusive.html

This Philadelphia Journalist notes that of the 12 reviewed home run calls in baseball 5 have been during met's games, and all 5 were reviewed in favor of the mets.  This can't be anywhere near normal since homers can only be overturned if they are conclusive.  conclusive is a very high standard legally.

 

Let's get Zim elected to the All-Star game!!!  Everyone in eNats town (federal baseball) should sign up for and go to two or three other teams SB nation sites and post a Fanpost about why ZIM is the best thirdbasemen in baseball this year!  There are enough of us that if we each took 2-3 teams we could get most of the league covered.  Let's get Zim elected to the All-Star Game!!!! How about starting in the AL?!!!

When I look at the young starters on the NATs,  I see more depth and talent than I saw on the Braves in 1991 (the year before the last to first swing that started the 14 year streak).  Lannen, Zimmermann, Detwiler, Stammen, and Martis all look like  major league starters with the potential to be stars and have long careers.  And baelster could put his name on that list as well. As a result, I am unsure we need Strassburg to win unless we convert him to a closer (blasphemy I know).

If we could find a legit Closer and setup man in free agency then this team could go very far next season.  Luckily, that is very possible in the offseason (or maybe Cabrera's new found foot placement will change him).  Bull pens are often the easiest part of a team to fix.   Tavares, Biemel, Hanrahan, Bergman, Mock, and Hinckley all have enough talent to be in a major league bullpen, but none seem to have the talent to setup or close.  So if we fill those two glaring holes, then the other guys will fall into place and be decent. Then we will have a good enough bullpen to back up our starting pitching. 

Our other glaring hole is in the middle infield.  We need a photo copy of Ryan Zimmerman who can play either SS or second (or both).  IE a gold glover that can hit.  AH is proving to be better than I expected this season, but I have this nagging doubt that he will return to his 2007 form soon.  Gonzalez is a 'maybe he can learn to catch and throw', with a solid bat, but surely no sure thing.  Bellaird is nearing the end.  Guzman's bat has been a shock so far this season, but the defense is not as good as needed.  I see no one in the minors who stands out.  So I think this team needs to draft or trade for a dominating middle infielder or two. 

I feel, with a legit setupman, closer, and a dominating middle infielder, this team is talented enough to go last to first with or without Strassburg (with NJ).  But obviously strassburg would help.

 

Comments welcomed

All data borrowed from From Fangraphs

1. NATS have a team  wOBA of .350 which is 9th overall and 3rd in the NL! 

So we can hit!

wOBA is a measure of overall offense that includes as much stuff as possible.

2.  Last season (2008) the Rangers had the highest wOBA of any team in baseball at .355.  The following NATS with at least 30 at bats are currently higher than .355 in wOBA.  Guzman, Dunn, Kearns, Johnson, Dukes, Zimmerman, and Flores.  In other words,  SS, LF, CF, RF, 1B, 3B, and Catcher.  Only secondbase is missing! 

Most guys are hitting!  Only one real hole once Guzz returns.   (Granted its a big hole)

3.  The following pitchers have positive "value wins" at this moment:  Zimmermann, Tavarez, Olsen, Biemel, Lannan, Cabrera, Martis.  Granted all are small positive values, but the season is very young.  most positive note: the entire rotation is listed!!!   even Cabrera

We lack stars, but  not quality starters. (Strassburg and Battlestar are on the way!!!)  Imagine our rotation for 2010-2011!

4. The following pitchers are the only ones with Negative "Value Wins" right now: Saoool 'overused till he broke" Rivera, Hinckley, Han ra Han "them another blown save".  All three have fairly negative values considering how young the year.  Feel free to blame all three for ruining this season so far as all other pitchers are Zero win share guys for the season. 

So only three bullpen pitchers are really hurting us!

5. the following are playing outstanding defense:  Ryan Zimmerman 3b UZR/150 of  27.1!  Willingham in lf 12.9!   Guzman ss is better than expected at +2.0.  That is it for the plus defenders with more than a small number of innings at a position, (Although Nick is only -1.9 at first which is very close to the average of zero). 

Ok our defense has few bright spots, and many real dark spots, but as a team we are better than the Orioles, Angels, Indians, and Cardinals so far.  So we are not the worst team!!  Imagine if we could catch how good our starters would be at this point!

There you go SOME BRIGHTS SPOTS on the NATS

This team seems really cursed every year with injuries.  It really does feel like we are cursed.  Problem is we lack a goat or black cat to blame it on.  So anyone have any ideas of our goat to blame all the injuries on?     Do French Canadians do Voodoo or some such?   I feel like it would make me feel better if we had someone or something to blame this on rather than the teeam itself and the players.  We need a goat! 

"

Guzman had a miserable game Saturday, going 0-for-4 at the plate with two strikeouts and committing three more errors. Spin: There's been no indication from the Nationals but something would seem to be wrong with Guzman, either physically or off the field, as a veteran like him should not be struggling with his defense to that degree this late in the spring. His Grapefruit League line is now .234/.250/.340, and it might be time to officially start getting worried if you were counting on him as a steady middle infield presence for your fantasy squad. Sun, Mar 29

Guzman went 0-for-3 Monday and committed two errors in the field. Spin: The cut on his little toe he suffered a week ago wasn't supposed to be a big deal, but he's struggled since. Guzman is now hitting just .225/.225/.325 in 40 spring at-bats. Tue, Mar 24

Something is wrong.  Clearly.  Shall we move Dunn to SS?  Just kidding.  Gonzalez or Belliard?  I guess TAWH could get a shot at playing everyday.  I hope so.

Milledge has gone just 4-for-34 in Grapefruit League action since manager Manny Acta named him the Nationals' leadoff hitter, the team's web site reports. Spin: "We know what Milledge can do," Acta said. "He is taking some good swings and he's working on stuff. The stats for the guys who are on the team really don't matter at all." Milledge, however, doesn't sound like he's ready to change his approach at the plate just because he's setting the table. "I'm not an 80-to-100-walk guy," Milledge said. "I'm going to be an aggressive leadoff hitter like [Cristian Guzman]. I'll run a little bit. That's all I'm trying to do." If Guzman is his role model, it could be a long year for Milledge owners. Tue, Mar 31 I got the above from ESPN fantasy baseball. Sure wish Acta and Kasten would read "The Book".  I know Acta is aware of VORP and other stats. 

The book, as it's called, looks at baseball lineups and tries to determine what is the most important stat for each spot using scientific methods. The book counters conventional wisdom and is controversial in this way.  To the Book the most important hitting spot in a lineup is the leadoff spot and the most important attribute is on base percentage and least important is power.  Speed is far less important than on base percentage.  The second most important lineup spot is the #2 hitter, the next most important is the #4 hitter,  #5, then #3.  The #3 hitter is not that important, as they are the most likely hitter near the top of the lineup to come to the plate with two out and no one on.  Most teams waste a very good hitter in this less important spot.  Steals are shown to be more important in front of light-hitting singles hitters, so you want the most speed in the 6 hole.  Steals are wasted in front of power. 

So with this Book in mind I thought it might be fun to make a lineup for the NAts using the details in The Book.

Leadoff Nick Johnson.  He is incredably hard to get out.  Although he has more power and a little less speed than the Book feels this spot needs.  His on base percentage is ungodly and that trumps anything else.

#2 Dukes.  He has very good on base skills and good speed.  Plus he looks like he will turn into a hard out you want at the top of your lineup.

#3 Guzman  good hitter but is not awesome.  The extra base hits are very nice.  Plus, he helps Dukes' speed score more often. 

#4 Dunn you want a ton of power, and a guy who is hard to get out here.

#5 Zimmerman should be a power hitter since this spot bats with guys on all the time.

#6 Millage.  The book says the #6 spot is the most critical spot to have speed and he is an ok hitter to boot.

#7 Flores

#8 Pitcher

#9 Hernandez/ Belliard

I was reading about how Willingham was  wondering how he was going to be used and went into to talk to Acta about it.  He is a real classy guy and deserves to play somewhere, so I was thinking.  Since he has been a catcher, perhaps he should catch once a week.  That gives him at bats until he is needed in the interleague games as a DH.  Imagine a lineup with

Dukes, Guzman, Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, Dunn, Willingham, Millage/Harris, Hernandez/Belliard 

that would score some runs!  Heck Zimmerman would likely be the 5th best hitter in that group. Guzman would be 6th or 7th best.

Add flores in interleague games in AL as a 9th hitter and Wow you got some hitting.

I suggest this knowing that Willingam is an awful catcher, but according to Fangraphs data Nieves and Flores are below avereage catchers as well, so we aren't losing tons.  Heck Willingham could catch Cabrera.  We might need the extra runs!!!! 

We all expect the Nats to trade somebody before the season starts, and Willingham seems like the guy most likely to be traded, but I can't see many teams with any need for him.  The worst OFs in baseball probably fall to Pittsburg and Seattle.  But, both teams are looking to get younger and Willingham is 30 years old.  So I doubt they would have interest.  Millage however might interest them.  He could upgrade both those teams in LF.  But, I do not see the Nats trading Millage after we gave up to regular starters to a playoff team for him.  The only other team that seems to have a need is Atlanta.  I doubt we trade Willingham to Atlanta since he would be hitting homers off our pitchers this season and making us look bad.  Given everday at bats he will hit 30+ homers virtually guarranteed. 

 

So my thinking at this point is we will wait until injuries hit somebody in the outfield then we will trade.  Unfortunately that probably means a guy we like like langerhans will be asked to go to AAA.  WMP is gone for sure

Man I am getting some serious man love for J Zimmerman (the pitcher ) from just reading box scores on spring games.  So I decided to coin a new phrase "Man that guy is pitching a Zim!"  I am going to use it everytime I talk about a great pitched game.  Any love? 

I'll bet your using it come August!

Thinking about J Zim and Strasburg in the same rotation could get my mind off girls.  Oh wait its back. 

Hey I am new around here but a huge NATS fan and a farily solid stats guy.  I have been thinking about the NATS starting pitching of late.  I think we are more solid than many believe.  Assuming Perez actually plays for us, then I expect the following ERAs:

Hill and Lannen high 3's ~ 3.95 and 50 starts

Perez and Olson low 4's ~ 4.35 and 65 starts

and Daniel Cabrera will post a mid 4's era ~ 4.55 (thanks to getting out of the AL east and pitching to pitchers) and 30 starts

Baelster and others get era in the mid to low 5's with 17 starts.

If I am right, then that is actually a solid rotation.  It lacks an Ace but all and all should be about league average. 

Our bullpen lacks a good closer, but otherwise appears fairly deep because I think Bergmann and Chico could dominate as relievers (era's in the 3's).  So it would not shock me if the pen ends the season average to slightly above. 

What to you guys think?