SB Nation User Blog: PhDBrian

Running the bases between the quotes

PhDBrian — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:51:35 -0000

This is copy and posted from FanGraphs (Erik Manning). It shows which players were the best at running the bases without counting steals. In other words, who were the best at taking extra bases and avoiding outs on the base paths in baseball last year. Note Two Nats Regulars on the tops in baseball list. These are significant numbers because by Guzman being worth 6 runs you can add .6 to his WAR which makes him worth 1.5 WAR last season (Dunn was worth 1.2 WAR not factoring in baserunning). War does not count this type of baserunning just steals and caught steals. I tried to figure out how Erik Manning got these numbers, so I could list all the NATS, but I am unsure. I know that among the worst last season were Dukes and Gonzales (worst in the game not just NATS) and I am sure they were in the minus 4 or worse catagory, but I am unsure by how much. If I figure it out I will post it.

"Feel free to add these numbers in to a player’s total WAR to get a better picture of what these individuals were worth on the diamond.

	         Runs
Michael Bourn	   8
Chone Figgins	   7
Emilio Bonifacio   6
Cristian Guzman	   6
Dexter Fowler	   6
Chase Utley	   5
Ryan Zimmerman	   5
Rajai Davis	   5
Colby Rasmus	   5
Ichiro Suzuki	   5
Brandon Phillips   5

Baserunning matters, but it doesn’t matter a whole lot — at least not for the vast majority of players. Only 18 players contributed 4 or more runs, and only 13 players hurt their teams by 4 or more runs"

The Deadly Defense of Dunn

PhDBrian — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 04:12:13 -0000

From Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-dunn

Dunn was by far the worst defensive player in the game last season (by more than 20 runs given up over Hawpe). He has been the worst player in the game over the last 5 seasons combined. His defense singlehandedly costs his team an average of 4.6 games a season over the last 5 years That is approximately the difference between the talents of Daniel Cabrera and AJ Burnett in 2008.

who were the best NATs this season statistically

PhDBrian — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:46:09 -0000

Here are the season ending stats for the current NATS. Almost none of these stats samples are large enough to be a true representation of a players abilities (fielding needs 3 seasons), but here they are anyway. I deleted, in most cases, NATS we traded because all of them got better away from us

Here are the WARs for the Nats at season end. I only include guys still with the team:

Name (notes)

WAR as NAT**

Ryan Zimmerman (#1 3b in game , 7th overall)

7.1

Nyjer Morgan (season overall 4.9)

Josh Willingham (started only 2/3 of season)

2.4

Adam Dunn (only 195th of all players)

1.2

Willie Harris (higher score with playing time?)

1.1

Jesus Flores (in 93 ABs!)

Justin Maxwell (in 85 ABs)!

Cristian Guzman (17th at SS QF)

0.9

Josh Bard

0.6

Ian Desmond (75 ABs)

0.3

Wil Nieves

0.2

Roger Bernadina (only 4 ABs)

0.1

Mike Morse

Pete Orr

Austin Kearns (helped by plus glove)

Jamie Burke

-0.1

Alberto Gonzalez (just bad all round year)

-0.5

Jorge Padilla (Mezza endorsement curse?)

-0.5

Elijah Dukes (Cf def killed him)

-0.5

Here is how some XNats finished

Name WAR Nat Season

N Johnson (19th 1B) 1.3 2.4

Ronnie Belliard 0.3 1.4 became starter

A Hernandez 0.1 0.3

L Millage -0.2 1.0 likes LF!

**WAR looks at both offense and defense (except catchers) and playing more can get you a better score (or worse).

Defense (UZR/150) still on team more than 5 innings

Name	Pos	UZR/150
Adam Dunn	1B	-19.8
Adam Dunn	LF	-28.3
Adam Dunn	RF	-34
Alberto Gonzalez	2B	-2.9
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	-14.3
Austin Kearns	CF	-28.5
Austin Kearns	RF	10.2
Cristian Guzman	SS	-2.1
Elijah Dukes	CF	-15.4
Elijah Dukes	LF	-37
Elijah Dukes	RF	-9.1
Ian Desmond	2B	-60.6
Ian Desmond	RF	-55.6
Ian Desmond	SS	-0.6
Jorge Padilla	LF	3.9
Jorge Padilla	RF	-10.9
Josh Willingham	LF	-6.1
Josh Willingham	RF	-4.9
Justin Maxwell	CF	26.4
Justin Maxwell	RF	23.4
Mike Morse	1B	-20.9
Mike Morse	RF	-55
Nyjer Morgan	CF	31.5
Pete Orr	2B	16.4
Pete Orr	3B	-108.5
Roger Bernadina	CF	94.1
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	16
Willie Harris	2B	-20.6
Willie Harris	3B	9.2
Willie Harris	CF	-14.4
Willie Harris	LF	17.5

Offense (wOBA of .330 is roughly average and includes everything offensively including steals)

Name	OPS	wOBA
Roger Bernadina	0.900	0.4400
Adam Dunn	0.926	0.3930
Nyjer Morgan	0.831	0.3790
Ian Desmond	0.894	0.3770
Ryan Zimmerman	0.885	0.3760
Jesus Flores	0.877	0.3750
Josh Willingham	0.866	0.3740
Justin Maxwell	0.807	0.3660
Mike Morse	0.824	0.3530
Willie Harris	0.757	0.3420
Elijah Dukes	0.731	0.3120
Cristian Guzman	0.697	0.3020
Austin Kearns	0.641	0.2980
Josh Bard	0.653	0.2870
Alberto Gonzalez	0.647	0.2820
Pete Orr	0.651	0.2800
Wil Nieves	0.606	0.2740
Jamie Burke	0.267	0.1330
Jorge Padilla	0.221	0.1080

Defending Austin

PhDBrian — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 03:46:15 -0000

Austin Kearns is just about the most overpaid player in baseball, and I have heard many calls for him to be released lately, but he is not without positive value for this team. So I am arguing we should just let him ride out his contract on the bench. I went out and looked at fangraphs data today and right now Kearns has generated more value than Dukes for this franchise this season in fewer at bats. How is this possible? Well Kearns actually does two very important, but highly underrated things, well: avoid outs and play his position. Kearns has an above average onbase percentage of .336 (Dukes ,314). That ranks better than 9 AL franchises and 11 NL franchises. His UZR/150 as a RF in fan graphs is a positive 4.1 and it is his worst year ever for that stat. Zero is completely average. Dukes is 1.0 thus far in RF. Kearns also is an intelligent baserunner who lacks speed. Which is to say he rarely makes mistakes on the basepaths unlike Dukes (fast and stupid). Kearn's big, huge, epic, beyond belief weakness is an absolute total lack of power (slg .306). Which, granted, is huge. Nonetheless I do not think he deserves to be outright cut, but rather be a bench player who can avoid outs and play a good defense in right field until his contract runs out. You could do alot worse on your bench.

DUNN vs Langerhans...

PhDBrian — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:52:37 -0000

Dunn has played in 581 innings for the Nats this year. He has been worth .8 Wins above Replacement in that time. Last season, Langerhans played 216 innings for the NATs and was worth .8 Wins above Replacement. So in 2.5 times more playing time Dunn has returned the same amount of total WAR as Langerhans did last year.

Langerhans has played 91 innings this year for Seattle. He has been worth .2 WAR. That is less than 1/6 Dunn's playing time. .2*6 = 1.2 WAR. Seattle has gotten 1.2 WAR out of Langerhans and Endy Chavez this season in 484 innings of work. No wonder they are winning team.

If Langerhans had played every inning in LF that Dunn has played for this team and played as well as he did last season, then we would have likely won 1-2 more games this season than we have with Dunn. Yep Langerhans would have helped us more than Dunn.

By the way, Dunn cost 15x as much per year to play.

I got my data from Fangraphs on July 12th.

I really like Dunn and hope he gets traded to a team like seattle that Would DH him so he can be much happier and win!

Trade idea

PhDBrian — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 06:15:20 -0000

It is my belief that what this team needs most of all is dominating middle inflielders. Guys that can hit and catch better than average. It occurs to me that the top defensive team in the NL is trying to trade its second baseman and Shortstop... the Pirates. Jack Wilson is the best defensive SS in the NL according to the new defensive metrics over at Fangraphs and an average hitter as well. Freddy Sanchez is a current all star for the pirates, a great hitter for a second basemen, and a plus defender. If we could get them for roughly Guzman, Andy Hands, money and a couple of minor leaguers, we would have them locked up all of next season. The rookie pitchers would be in 7th heaven because they would have potentially outstanding defenders at first, second, ss, and third. With Morgan in CF. Our current ERA would plummet with this trade. Next season we would have the best all round inflield in the NL and I think we would contend. Granted neither of these guys are youngsters at 31, but who cares we could contend next season (assuming our entire pitching rotation does not have a sophmore slump). Lastly, it's always good Karma to rip off the Pirates. Just a real crazy idea.

lopsided Homer calls called into question

PhDBrian — Fri, 29 May 2009 23:42:56 -0000

Apparently we are not alone in seeing several lopsided home run calls.

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20090529_Paul_Hagen__Mets__latest_replay_home_run_anything_but_conclusive.html

This Philadelphia Journalist notes that of the 12 reviewed home run calls in baseball 5 have been during met's games, and all 5 were reviewed in favor of the mets. This can't be anywhere near normal since homers can only be overturned if they are conclusive. conclusive is a very high standard legally.

Let's Start The Vote For Zim online Movement!!!

PhDBrian — Wed, 27 May 2009 02:03:14 -0000

Let's get Zim elected to the All-Star game!!! Everyone in eNats town (federal baseball) should sign up for and go to two or three other teams SB nation sites and post a Fanpost about why ZIM is the best thirdbasemen in baseball this year! There are enough of us that if we each took 2-3 teams we could get most of the league covered. Let's get Zim elected to the All-Star Game!!!! How about starting in the AL?!!!

Our future looks good to me

PhDBrian — Sat, 23 May 2009 05:54:58 -0000

When I look at the young starters on the NATs, I see more depth and talent than I saw on the Braves in 1991 (the year before the last to first swing that started the 14 year streak). Lannen, Zimmermann, Detwiler, Stammen, and Martis all look like major league starters with the potential to be stars and have long careers. And baelster could put his name on that list as well. As a result, I am unsure we need Strassburg to win unless we convert him to a closer (blasphemy I know).

If we could find a legit Closer and setup man in free agency then this team could go very far next season. Luckily, that is very possible in the offseason (or maybe Cabrera's new found foot placement will change him). Bull pens are often the easiest part of a team to fix. Tavares, Biemel, Hanrahan, Bergman, Mock, and Hinckley all have enough talent to be in a major league bullpen, but none seem to have the talent to setup or close. So if we fill those two glaring holes, then the other guys will fall into place and be decent. Then we will have a good enough bullpen to back up our starting pitching.

Our other glaring hole is in the middle infield. We need a photo copy of Ryan Zimmerman who can play either SS or second (or both). IE a gold glover that can hit. AH is proving to be better than I expected this season, but I have this nagging doubt that he will return to his 2007 form soon. Gonzalez is a 'maybe he can learn to catch and throw', with a solid bat, but surely no sure thing. Bellaird is nearing the end. Guzman's bat has been a shock so far this season, but the defense is not as good as needed. I see no one in the minors who stands out. So I think this team needs to draft or trade for a dominating middle infielder or two.

I feel, with a legit setupman, closer, and a dominating middle infielder, this team is talented enough to go last to first with or without Strassburg (with NJ). But obviously strassburg would help.

Comments welcomed

Some Optimism about the Nats at this dark time

PhDBrian — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:34:03 -0000

All data borrowed from From Fangraphs

1. NATS have a team wOBA of .350 which is 9th overall and 3rd in the NL!

So we can hit!

wOBA is a measure of overall offense that includes as much stuff as possible.

2. Last season (2008) the Rangers had the highest wOBA of any team in baseball at .355. The following NATS with at least 30 at bats are currently higher than .355 in wOBA. Guzman, Dunn, Kearns, Johnson, Dukes, Zimmerman, and Flores. In other words, SS, LF, CF, RF, 1B, 3B, and Catcher. Only secondbase is missing!

Most guys are hitting! Only one real hole once Guzz returns. (Granted its a big hole)

3. The following pitchers have positive "value wins" at this moment: Zimmermann, Tavarez, Olsen, Biemel, Lannan, Cabrera, Martis. Granted all are small positive values, but the season is very young. most positive note: the entire rotation is listed!!! even Cabrera

We lack stars, but not quality starters. (Strassburg and Battlestar are on the way!!!) Imagine our rotation for 2010-2011!

4. The following pitchers are the only ones with Negative "Value Wins" right now: Saoool 'overused till he broke" Rivera, Hinckley, Han ra Han "them another blown save". All three have fairly negative values considering how young the year. Feel free to blame all three for ruining this season so far as all other pitchers are Zero win share guys for the season.

So only three bullpen pitchers are really hurting us!

5. the following are playing outstanding defense: Ryan Zimmerman 3b UZR/150 of 27.1! Willingham in lf 12.9! Guzman ss is better than expected at +2.0. That is it for the plus defenders with more than a small number of innings at a position, (Although Nick is only -1.9 at first which is very close to the average of zero).

Ok our defense has few bright spots, and many real dark spots, but as a team we are better than the Orioles, Angels, Indians, and Cardinals so far. So we are not the worst team!! Imagine if we could catch how good our starters would be at this point!

There you go SOME BRIGHTS SPOTS on the NATS