SB Nation User Blog: Phauz

Strategy for hiring our next coach?

Phauz — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 19:23:59 -0000

Am I jumping the gun a little bit with this post? Not really. I don't care if you are Steve Kragthorpe's grandma, there can't be too many people that think he'll be the coach at UofL next year. So, I am asking you, the CC community, what should be the strategy for hiring our next coach? Not, who per se the coach should be, but what should his profile look like.

I love UofL as much as anyone, but lets face it, its a good head coaching job but UofL isn't considered a "traditional football power", whatever that is. Given that, we are not going to hire Urban Meyer away from Florida, our next head coach will have a few flaws on experience or performance record. So, who do we want out of these candidates:

The unproven up-and-comer

Solid guy with a decent track record

Fall from glory

Coach with connections

Read the details and pros/cons after the jump...

The unproven up-and-comer:

Maybe a coordinator who hasn't had a head coaching job or has been head coach at only a very small school.

Pros: May be a good bargain on a capable coach and he'll be young enough to not retire any time soon. Bobby Petrino might fit this profile - great record as OC, but no head coaching experience.

Cons: Very high risk and only short-term reward. Either he'll be a total bust or he'll do great and be a flight risk to move on to a Big Ten / SEC school or to the NFL. (Yeah, Bobby definitely fits this profile)

Solid guy with a decent track record:

Successful headcoach at a nice C-USA/MAC//WAC school

Pros: Good track record against decent competition should give us some confidence that he'll be ready to step up to the Big East. Lots of great examples of great coaches that started at some MAC school...Brian Kelly at Cincy comes to mind. Also, this guys is probably older...still risk of moving on to the Big Ten / SEC (like John L), but not likely to go to the NFL

Cons: Think this is a low risk pick? Our current coach probably fits here...also, Ron Cooper. This guy probably isn't THAT great or else we're not going to lure him away...Chris Petersen isn't leaving Boise State for Louisville...maybe for Penn State or whatever.

Fall from glory

Experienced head coach with lots of historical success, but a bad run lately

Pros: Not likely to jump ship for a 'big name' program - would likely be his last job. Proof that he can be successful at some level. This could be a Tommy Tuberville or Charlie Weis this year. Anybody fired from the NFL fits in here. Maybe 1983 Schnellenberger fits in here (I don't think USFL was technically a "fall". bit he got dislodged from Miami to go to the USFL and that is the point. - a coach that good has to have something move them away from their last situation ) He'll have lots of experience....

Cons: ....sucking. This coach would have proven to the world that lately he can't win. He'll be a recognizable name for recruiting but not sure that would matter all that much (Lou Holtz at South Carolina, Ty Willingham at Washington)

Coach with connections

A current assistant or coordinator with ties to UofL as a player or coach

Pros: Could turn out like the up-and-comer, but more likely to stick around at UofL. Would have great rapport with fans, alumni, boosters. Could Jeff Brohm pan out for us?

Cons: Likely to have little or no head coaching experience (unless there is somebody I am not thinking of). Less likely to have as much upside as if we were to choose the best possible up-and-comer regardless of history with the school. Fans will sour on anyone if the wins don't start coming. If he is successful, I can't think of too many times where the historical connection has outweighed the money from the NFL (but far less likely to leave for a different BCS school)...actually, wait, Petrino fits in here...and he still left.

So, what do we think? I say we hire Nick Saban - guy seems like a winner.

Phauz

Poll

What coaching profile should we look for in our next coach?

Unproven up-and-comer

61 votes

Solid guy with a decent track record

157 votes

Fall from glory

66 votes

Coach with UofL connections

28 votes

312 votes | Poll has closed

Big East Tourney Scenarios

Phauz — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:56:20 -0000

And then there were four…as in, four games left that can impact UofL's Big East tourney seed or opponent (or at least opponent in the first round). Of course, these two:

UofL @ WVU, Saturday 9:00 PM

UConn @ Pitt, Saturday noon

As previously discussed, if UofL wins and Pitt beats UConn, we win the BE outright. Any other scenario we get #2

UConn and UofL win – UConn gets the title with the head-to-head tiebreaker
UofL loss and a UConn win and we finish #2 with no ties
UofL loss and a Pitt win – 3 way tie with the following miniconf records (miniconf win % is the first 3-way tie breaker even if uneven number of games were played)
- Pitt 2-1
- UofL 1-1
- UConn 1-2

The other two games that affect our first round opponent:

Providence @ Villanova, Thursday 7:00 PM

Syracuse @ Marquette, Saturday 2:00 PM

Of our potential 1st round matchups as the #1 or #2: DePaul (#16), Rutgers (#15), and Cincy (#9) have locked up their seeds. ND will be the #10 as long as they don’t lose to St. Johns (but it would be pretty cool if they did). Without further ado, here are the scenarios…

Scenario #1 (the good one) – UofL beats WVU and Pitt beats UConn

UofL is #1 seed, playing the winner of the #8 and DePaul(#16)/Cincy(#9)

If Syracuse beats Marquette AND Nova beats Providence , that puts Syracuse into 6th and WVU/Prov in a tie at 7th. WVU won that one head-to-head, so our #8 opponent is PROVIDENCE
Every other scenario for Syr/Marq and Nova/Prov, WEST VIRGINIA gets the #8

Scenario #2 (I can live with this) – UofL beats WVU and UConn beats Pitt

UofL is #2 seed, playing the winner of the #7 and Rutgers(#15)/ND(#10)

If Syracuse beats Marquette AND Nova beats Providence , same as scenario #1. Syracuse into 6th and WVU/Prov in a tie at 7th. WVU won that one head-to-head, so our #7 opponent is WEST VIRGINIA
Every other scenario for Syr/Marq and Nova/Prov, SYRACUSE gets the #7

Scenario #3 (oh, this would not be good) – UofL loses to WVU then the Pitt/UConn game no longer impacts UofL

UofL is still the #2 seed, playing the winner of the #7 and Rutgers(#15)/ND(#10)

If Syracuse AND Nova win, WVU and Syracuse tie for 6th. Syracuse beat them head to head, so the #7 is WEST VIRGINIA
If Syracuse AND Providence win, now there is a 3-way tie for 6th. Prov, Syracuse, WVU have 1-1 records against each other. Providence wins the tie-breaker win their win over Pitt and SYRACUSE wins the #7 seed with the head-to-head win over WVU.
The other two possibilities, we’ll get PROVIDENCE as the #7
- Marquette and Nova win – Prov and Syr tie for #7 and Prov wins by HtoH
- Marquette and Prov win – Prov and WVU tie for #6 and WVU wins by HtoH

Bottom line:

(This assumes we’d rather play Providence than WVU a third time and we’d rather play West Virginia than Syracuse)

1. Cheer for UofL (always)

2. Cheer for Pitt (I want this championship)

3. Cheer for Nova on Thursday. This helps us play Providence instead of WVU or WVU instead of Syracuse. Nova winning helps good stuff happen.

4. If Nova beat Providence, cheer for Syracuse over Marquette. Otherwise the only way the Syracuse/Marquette game impacts us is if we lost to WVU, in which case a Marquette win gives us Providence as our #7. So I guess if Providence beats Nova, cheer for Marquette just in case.

This will make you feel better

Phauz — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 22:50:56 -0000

...either that, or it will make it worse.

http://mashup.cbssports.com/show.php?id=1921

Nevermind that Edgar's shot came after a pushoff. Or that that ball went off Padgett and over to Tennessee. I love this CBS app!

UofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofLUofL

Big East vs. ACC "upsets"

Phauz — Sat, 22 Mar 2008 20:32:42 -0000

(12)Villanova 75, (5)Clemson 69
(7) West Virgnia 73, (2) Duke 67

(1) UNC vs. (5) ND next? I almost hope it comes to (1) UNC vs. (3) Louisville though

Thats what they get for this...
http://www.carolinamarch.com/story/2008/3/14/04016/2346

Mid-week BE tourney projections

Phauz — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 05:28:23 -0000

Bumped from Diaries

Syracuse-setonhall game effectively ends my dream of getting a 2nd round matchup with Cincy/SetonHall winner

Most games are easy to pick form here out. Here is the outlook with these assumptions:

UL over GT
UConn over Prov and Cinc
Marq over Syr
ND over USF
WV over SJU
Pitt over DePaul
Vill over Prov
SHall over Rut
Cinc over DePaul

UofL gets Cincy/Nova winner in R1

Rank    Count    W-L    Tie Breaker
1    Louisville    15-3
2    Georgetown    14-4    TB1 - miniconf 2-0
3    Connecticut    14-4    TB3 - record vs top teams
4    Notre Dame    14-4    TB3 - record vs top teams
5    Marquette    12-6
6    West Virginia    11-7
7    Pittsburgh    10-8
8    Cincinnati    9-9    TB1 - h to h
9    Villanova    9-9    TB1 - h to h
10    Syracuse    8-10    TB1 - h to h
11    Seton Hall    8-10    TB1 - h to h
12    DePaul    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 2-1
13    St. John's    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 1-1
14    Providence    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 1-2
15    South Florida    3-15
16    Rutgers    2-16

With UofL loss:

Now we get WV/Seton Hall winner. Why does it always have to be WV?

Rank    Count    W-L    Tie Breaker
1    Georgetown    15-3
2    Connecticut    14-4    TB1 - miniconf 2-1
3    Louisville    14-4    TB1 - miniconf 1-1
4    Notre Dame    14-4    TB1 - miniconf 1-2
5    Marquette    12-6
6    West Virginia    11-7
7    Pittsburgh    10-8
8    Cincinnati    9-9    TB1 - h to h
9    Villanova    9-9    TB1 - h to h
10    Syracuse    8-10    TB1 - h to h
11    Seton Hall    8-10    TB1 - h to h
12    DePaul    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 2-1
13    St. John's    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 1-1
14    Providence    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 1-2
15    South Florida    3-15
16    Rutgers    2-16

Potential for #1 UofL matchup with Pitt as #8 seed with Cincy over UConn or Pitt loss to DePaul

Potential for #1 UofL matchup with Syracuse as #9 seed with Syr win over Marq

Rank    Count    W-L    Tie Breaker
1    Louisville    15-3
2    Georgetown    14-4    TB1 - miniconf 2-0
3    Connecticut    14-4    TB3 - record vs top teams
4    Notre Dame    14-4    TB3 - record vs top teams
5    West Virginia    11-7    TB1 - h to h
6    Marquette    11-7    TB1 - h to h
7    Pittsburgh    10-8
8    Cincinnati    9-9    TB1 - miniconf 2-0
9    Syracuse    9-9    TB3 - record vs top teams
10    Villanova    9-9    TB3 - record vs top teams
11    Seton Hall    8-10
12    DePaul    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 2-1
13    St. John's    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 1-1
14    Providence    5-13    TB1 - miniconf 1-2
15    South Florida    3-15
16    Rutgers    2-16

Not looking too bad - was a little worried we'd get the 1 seed but still have to face a Pitt, Syracuse, or WV 1st round. I'll take a Cincy/Nova winner any day.

Revenge factor

Phauz — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 01:34:34 -0000

Good win today. 1 game from the title!

Thanks to Cincy choking against Prov today, lots of scenarios are now pointing to a Seton Hall/Cincy #8/#9 BE tourney matchup. How sweet would it be to get the 1 seed and get to exact revenge on Mick or Gonzo?

Rank    Team    W-L    Tie Breaker
1    #18 Louisville    15-3
2    #10 Georgetown    14-4    TB1 - miniconf 2-0
3    #16 Connecticut    14-4    TB3 - record vs UofL
4    #17 Notre Dame    14-4    TB3 - record vs UofL
5    #21 Marquette    12-6
6    West Virginia     11-7
7    Pittsburgh    10-8    TB1 - h to h
8    Seton Hall    10-8    TB1 - h to h
9    Cincinnati    9-9    TB1 - h to h
10    Villanova    9-9    TB1 - h to h
11    Syracuse    7-11
12    Providence    5-13    TB3 - record vs GT/Uconn
13    DePaul    5-13     TB3 - record vs GT/Uconn
14    St. John's    4-14
15    South Florida    3-15
16    Rutgers    2-16

Assumptions:
UL over GU
UConn wins out
Marq over Syr
ND wins out
WV wins out (including over Pitt)
Pitt over depaul
Nova over USF and Prov
Seton Hall over Syr and Rutgers
Cincy over depaul

Even with some changes (e.g. Syracuse over SHall), pretty good change of the 8/9 SHall/Cincy game setting up for us.

Now all we have to do is beat Georgetown!

Big East Tourney scenarios

Phauz — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 17:39:28 -0000

Bumped from diaries

Yes, it's the moment I wait for all year - 1 week until the tourney! That means its time to crunch some numbers and see how the seeding can turn out. ;

This post will probably be dated in about 4 hours, so I recommend TiVoing all of today's games and not watching until you completely understand all tourny implications.

Here we go...

Scenario #1: Everything goes as expected

UL over Nova and GU
GU over Marq
UConn wins out, including beating WV
Pitt over Syr
Cincy over Prov
Syr over Hall

1    #18 Louisville
2 #10 Georgetown        2-0
2    #16 Connecticut        1-2        1-0 vs UL
2    #17 Notre Dame    1-2
5    #21 Marquette
6    West Virginia
7    Cincinnati        split        1-0 vs UL
7    Pittsburgh        split        0-1 vs. UL
9    Villanova        won h to h
9    Seton Hall
11    Syracuse
12    DePaul
13    Providence        won h to h
13    St. John's
15    Rutgers
16    South Florida

Louisville plays the winner of the 8/9 game. Pitt is #8 because they split with Cincy and the next tie-breaker is record vs #1 seed. Nova beat S Hall heat to head to get the #9 seed.

Scenario #2: What if GU loses to Marq but beats UofL

1    #10 Georgetown        3-1
1    #16 Connecticut        2-2    won h to h
1    #18 Louisville        2-2
1    #17 Notre Dame    1-3
5    #21 Marquette
6    West Virginia
7    Cincinnati        split    1-0 vs RU
7    Pittsburgh        split
9    Villanova        won h to h
9    Seton Hall
11    Syracuse
12    DePaul
13    Providence        won h to h
13    St. John's
15    Rutgers
16    South Florida

This one gave me a headache. A 4-way tie for first (that's a lot of t-shirts) gets broken with the miniconference record. GU wins and ND is the #4 seed. UConn gets the 2 over UofL because of the head-to head game. Cincy and Pitt split and no team gains a tie-breaker advantage until all the way down to Rutgers(!), which won at Pitt.

Scenario #3 Same thing, plus UConn loses to WV

1    #10 Georgetown        2-1    split h to h    2-0 vs Vill/SHall
1    #18 Louisville        2-1    split h to h    1-1 vs Vill/SHall
1    #17 Notre Dame    0-2
4    #16 Connecticut        won h to h
4    #21 Marquette
6    West Virginia
7    Cincinnati    split h to h    1-0 vs RU
7    Pittsburgh    split h to h
9    Villanova
9    Seton Hall
11    Syracuse
12    DePaul
13    Providence    won h to h
13    St. John's
15    Rutgers
16    South Florida

UofL now gets the two. Same miniconf record as GU and tiebreak goes all the way down to Vill/SHall, where GU wins with 2-0 record. Cincy-Pitt tiebreaker still goes all the way down to Rutgers.

Scenario #4 Worst case - UL loses out, UConn drops a game to WV, Marq wins out

Rank
1    #10 Georgetown        won h to h
1    #17 Notre Dame
3    #16 Connecticut        2-0
3    #18 Louisville        2-1
3    #21 Marquette        0-3
6    West Virginia
7    Pittsburgh        1-1
7    Cincinnati        0-2    beat Nova h to h
7    Villanova        0-2
10    Seton Hall
11    Syracuse
12    DePaul
13    Providence    won h to h
13    St. John's
15    Rutgers
16    South Florida

So, Louisville gets the 4 seed here and plays winner of Marq/DePaul. Pitt/Cincy/Nova deadlock is broken by record over GU/ND, then Cincy h-to-h win over Nova.

I think this means out ND win clinched us a bye. That's pretty important.

Memphis (State?) football matchup

Phauz — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 05:01:11 -0000

A hole in UofL's football schedule in '08? How 'bout filling it with...I don't know...some C-USA team or something. Just don't make us play Memphis in basketball. No really, I'm serious. If UofL ends up on the #4/#5 line in the same region as #1 Memphis I am going to get very nervous. But, back to football...

I like it, Mr. Jurich. If we can't beat Kentucky, surely we can't lose to Memphis. Right?

Somewhere, Marty Lowe just flinched.

Mountaineers RB Slaton decides to go pro

Phauz — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 00:59:14 -0000

yah!

___________

West Virginia junior running back Steve Slaton said Sunday he will enter the NFL draft.

"I just told my coaches," an emotional Slaton said. "This is hard for me. But my coaches that knew me best have left. And now it's time for me to leave."

Slaton said he was projected by the NFL advisory committee as a second-round pick.

"Some guys think I'm a step slow," Slaton said. "So I have to show at the combine that I'm not."

Slaton said he wasn't able to consult with former West Virginia and current Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez on the decision, but he did speak with his former position coach, Calvin Magee.

"It's a good decision for me now, because I'm a versatile back," Slaton said. "As versatile as any back. I can play running back, wide receiver, kick returner. This was hard for me, but it's my time now to go."

After setting West Virginia's school record with 1,733 yards rushing in 2006, Slaton ran for 1,051 yards in 2007 to surpass 1,000 yards for the third straight year. He also matched his career-high with 17 touchdowns in 2007.

BIG EAST vs big xii

Phauz — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 04:37:01 -0000

As a resident of North Dallas, I sit smack in the midst of Big XII country. How much am loving this beating that WVU is laying on OU? Enough to taunt the sports karma gods by making this post with 11 minutes left in the game...and in the never-say-never Fiesta Bowl no less

Oh well, screw it. Woo hoo! Go 'eers. 41-21! Never again will I have to hear from Texas fans how weak of a league UofL plays in.