After that negative column by Phil about the awful financial state of the franchise we need some good news so I'll try to deliver.

Many people use many projection systems. I stick with two, the Baseball Forecaster From Ron Shandler and the Pecota system from Baseball Prospectus. Between the two of them I usually get a good idea of what my expectations should be for the year in question. Most of the time I use these projection systems for my roto leagues and they must be doing something right because I'm humbly very good. This is not to say that I take what they say and take it to the bank but I do look at the process. Baseball HQ doesn't just average out the counting numbers, they look at the peripherals that created the counting numbers, they understand hit percentages, park factors, and many other peripheral stats that help make up the counting numbers.

So what does that have to do with the Dodgers? Well I received my forecaster last week and while these are just projections we should like what they say.

Good News:

1. We love our outfield, well let me tell you, they love our outfield.

On Kemp

Excellent growth season was fully supported by BPIs. BA has now exceeded xBA 4 years in a row. Power surge supported by rise in FB and HR/FB rates. Extending the 2nd half... UP: 35 HR, 120 RBI

On Andre

A breakout w/full skill support. And he did it despite deep struggles vs. LHers and on road (.238 BA, .389 Slg). PX trend and FB spike say there's more power on the horizon. UP: 40 HR, if he masters LHers.

On Manny

Before 50-game suspension, his BPI's were otherworldly. After he returned, BPIs reverted to his typical worldly level. From here, it becomes a yearly battle between skill versus age, health and motivation.

Actual Projections

Okay we know the outfield was golden. Also remember that HQ only puts those little "UP" details in if they really think that player has a chance for that breakout. So now let us wander down to the infield. James Loney and his future is debated endlessly here. Eric just finished a story this week about how James has to start delivering on the promise he showed in 2006 and 2007. His PX (power index) had dropped from 132 to 117 to 91 to 70 but HQ see's some glimmers of hope.

Carbon-copy production masks some skills growth: a few more BBs, ct% trending upward. With minor recovery in h% and PX, there's a career year lurking: UP: .325, 20 HR

The actual projection is no great shakes but even if you discount the UP they are expecting an increase in the slug% from .399 to .439 (40 points).

Even 2nd base is not as dismal as I'd expected. Like many of us who looked deeper at the DeWitt season in 2009 they found that he suffered from some tough luck.

2-4-.204 in 49 AB at LA Eye provides strong foundation. What if h% was bad luck (30% in minors career)? Then he deserves a chance to recapture other skills. At age 25, has time to do so.

The projected slug% is still low but if the worse that DeWitt can do is put up a .710 OPS it will have to do. As least he's not making several million for that kind of production like Jamey Carroll will be doing. No good news here.

Consistently high LD% has helped him maintain elevated h%. xBA, ct% trending in wrong direction, though, and at age 36, SX is likely gone for good. Singles hitters with no legs have no value.

Now remember when they say "no value" they mean roto wise. Carroll has plenty of value for a bench player in MLB. His projections are nearly identical as DeWitt's except in the slug% where his .313 is about as bad as you can get. He dang well better be able to field.

Rafy Furcal looks to get a little bump back.

Easy to see now that small-sample 2008 was a fluke. 2009 was a repeat of 2007, when SX was just average (and SB variance was all in the opps). 2H provides hope that 2005-2006 can return, but SBO trend points to tired legs.

Most of the improvement is in the expected bump in his slug%.

I expected Casey Blake to get hammered in the projections given his age and health but surprisingly he's holding steady.

Hamstring problems wore him down in 2nd half. Previously healthy, so a winter's rest should fix that. Doesn't usually outperform xBA this much, so expect some BA correction. Skills are aging gently so far.

Finally we come to Russell Martin the focus of much consternation. I have to give HQ some props, they told me in the winter of 2008 that Martin did not have the peripherals to back up the power he showed in 2007. I told them they were full of hooey but they were right. Things like this are why I pay attention to HQ.

Wait, isn't he supposed to be peaking? XB hits in '09 were half of '07 totals, so both size & duration of power outage are worrisome. As a heavily used CA, are double-digit SB next? At least 2H gives a bit of hope.

The news is not exactly good here. He is expected to bounce a little but his projections still leave him woefully short of his Golden God era.
Actual Projections.

Good thing we have a great outfield. A lot does ride on James Loney moving up his game a level. I'll do the pitching tomorrow.

While some writers are just coming to grips with the Dodger payroll situation,  and blaming it on the divorce, if you have been reading TBLA since the summer of 2008 you know this is not all about the divorce.  As dire as the financial situation has looked this fall, with the following news, it is about to get even dire.

1. The Dodgers signed Jamey Carroll to a two year, four Million dollar deal. Yet they can't even afford to pay the 25th player on the team his full two million. Once again they are deferring money, but this time to a nickel and dime player by major league salary standards.

2. The great www.dodgerdivorce.com website writes about how the actual divorce proceedings are taking a toll on Frank's finances to the tune of $700,000 in the month of November alone. When someone asks how the divorce can impact the Dodgers this might be your answer. It is unclear if Frank is footing this bill based on his income from the Dodgers or if the Dodgers themselves are footing some of this. Either way, you can see why Frank is saying NO to any additional spending in 2010.

3. To accentuate the fact the Dodgers will not be adding payroll they apparently could add Aaron Harang by simply moving Sherrill's expected $4.3M 2010 contract for Harang's. However, the Dodgers don't have the money to add the difference in salary between Harang and Sherrill, so prospects would need to be headed the Reds way for them to eat the difference in the 2010 salary. That is right, Ohio baseball teams are again willing to eat salary to steal away Los Angeles Dodgers prospects from the team with the number one attendance figures in the NL. Luckily this deal may be dead but even still, expect something similar to happen. The Dodgers have established the pattern of selling prospects for salary relief and I expect that pattern to continue until Frank once again has money or we have run out of tradeable prospects.

The Dodgers finances might be facing the perfect storm.

1. Over leveraged debt payment where the plan has gone askew  and the revenues did not keep pace thus resulting in the 20 Million drop in salary from opening day 2008 to opening day 2009.

2. Divorce proceeding are going to bleed the Dodgers or Frank dry for the next few months and aren't they the same thing? If these numbers from Nov - May hold steady you are looking at $4.2 Million in legal fees. According to court documents filed by Frank, he has little liquid assets, so how is he paying for these legal fees?

3. Robbing Paul to pay Peter, the deferred contracts that allowed the Dodgers some wiggle room in 2009, and other bad contracts, are coming home to roost as the Dodgers will be paying $14 Million to players no longer on the roster in 2010.  Using simple math, if the Dodgers end up with a 100 Million dollar payroll, roughly 14% of the payroll will be paid out to players no longer on the team. Other teams may be doing deferred contracts but no one is doing it like the Dodgers. Our effective payroll is more like $86 Million or about $54 Million less then the team we are chasing. It will only get worse in 2011 when we start paying for Manny as he DH''s for another team.

4.More robbing Paul to pay Peter, selling prospects for salary relief. This might easily have the largest future impact on the club. Many of you may not want to hear this again but would you rather be paying Russell Martin $6 Million for an OPS of .700 - .750 or Carlos Santana $400,000  for an OPS of 800-850. These are just projections, but Baseball HQ's latest projection for 2010 has one Carlos Santana with a projected OPS in 2010 of .268/.388/.485. Would you rather be paying Jamey Carroll Two Million dollars for an OPS production of .636? This is right .636, for some reason 36 year old light hitting infielders don't age well. Go Figure. Or pay Tony Abreu $400,000 to put up a these numbers as projected by Baseball HQ .299/.329/.470. Of course that is based on Tony playing in Arizona but still, you'd have a top flight defensive 2nd baseman, switch hitter with some pop, playing for the minimum.  When you don't have money it seems even stranger to me to be selling your cost effective assets, but that is what short term thinking will get you.

The saddest part of this whole thing is that the Dodgers have a great core of young cheap players who over the next two years could be an impact team if the Dodgers were not facing this financial crisis. As it is this core can keep the Dodgers competitive but oh what could have been with some forward thinking, or the money you'd expect a franchise like the Dodgers to be able to spend. The Dodgers could easily have matched up with the Indians for Cliff Lee last summer if they had been willing to take on salary. The reason the Indians want more, and every team wants more is because we won't take on a full salary.  The Dodgers should be the team who says I'll give you this guy, this guy, and Five Million to take the son of a bitch Cliff Lee off your hands. Instead we are the team who says, I'll give this guy, this guy, this guy, and this guy, if you will pay a part of  his salary.

This is our current situation. I'm out of positives. I'm disgusted. Today I fear and I loathe what the McCourts have done and will do.  This team will still win but we now look at every deal the way the KC Royal fans look at every deal. No mistakes can be allowed anymore, because we don't have the wherewithal to sweep those mistakes under the mat.  You think I want to look at a Jamey Carroll deal in detail? I don't, we shouldn't care if the Dodgers paid value for Carroll, but we have to because 2 Million spent on Carroll is 2 Million less that we have to spend on a fourth starter. Or that 2 Million could be the difference between keeping Elbert or trading Elbert when we need a team to eat salary.

I understand that Frank is having financial troubles, and I'd be very receptive to his troubles if he hadn't brought them on himself, or if he'd quit selling our future in the form of deferred payments or prospects to pay for his current dreams.  If you can't afford the players, then quit buying them.  Use the prospects, don't sell them. Wait out the FA period, look for the bargains. You have no money, start acting like it and quit pretending your Eli Broad when you are nothing more then an overextended American citizen like the rest of us.

Charlie Hough, seen here tutoring Chris Withrow, will return to Inland Empire in 2010 for his fourth season as pitching coach.

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Field Coordinator: Bruce Hines

Senior Advisor, Player Development: P.J. Carey

Hitting Coordinator: Gene Clines

Pitching Coordinator: Rafael Chaves

Outfield/Baserunning Coordinator: Rodney McCray

Infield Coordinator: Matt Martin

Catching Coordinator: Travis Barbary

Athletic Training Coordinator: Jim Young

Rehab Coordinator: Jeremiah Randall

Minor League Strength and Conditioning Coordinator: Mike Winkler

Triple-A Albuquerque

Manager: Tim Wallach

Hitting Coach: John Moses

Pitching Coach: Jim Slaton

 

Double-A Chattanooga

Manager: Carlos Subero

Hitting Coach: John Valentin

Pitching Coach: Danny Darwin

 

Single-A Inland Empire

Manager: Jeff Carter

Hitting Coach: Franklin Stubbs

Pitching Coach: Charlie Hough

 

Single-A Great Lakes

Manager: Juan Bustabad

Hitting Coach: Michael Boughton

Pitching Coach: Chuck Crim

 

Rookie-advanced Ogden

Manager: Damon Berryhill

Hitting Coach: Johnny Washington

Pitching Coach: Kremlin Martinez

 

Rookie-level Arizona League Dodgers

Manager: Lorenzo Bundy

Hitting Coach: Leo Garcia

Pitching Coach: Glenn Dishman

 

Rookie-level Dominican Summer League Dodgers

Manager: Pedro Mega

Hitting Coach: Tony Mota

 

Camelback Ranch – Glendale

Camelback Ranch Coordinator: John Shoemaker

Camelback Ranch Pitching Coach: George Culver

Camelback Ranch Senior Hitting Coach: Lenny Harris

Camelback Ranch Infield Coach: Daisuke Yamashita

 

Campo Las Palmas , Dominican Republic

Campo Las Palmas Director: Henry Cruz

Campo Las Palmas Field Coordinator: Antonio Bautista

Campo Las Palmas Catching Coordinator: Jose Hernandez

Campo Las Palmas Coach: Rafael Ozuna

If you are like me you have spent the last week listening to Holiday Music and several of those songs just won't give you any peace.  Right now my nervous brain system is being bombarded with "gone away is the bluebird" from Winter Wonderland.  For some background on Holiday music check out Joe Posnanski's discussion about Holiday Music.  To counter the music in my head I've decided to write my own little parody of Winter Wonderland and it blows.

I suspect we have some talented lyricists among our readers, so I'm tasking you with coming up with the best parody of a Holiday song that has something about the Dodgers replacing key parts of the song.  Your prize will be the adoration of the TBLA nation and dinner with Weird Al Yankovic. Hopefully no one will be offended by this, if you are just remember I'm talking about "Holiday Music" not Religious Music.

To help you get started here is a  link to many Holiday song lyics.

Surely you can beat this:

Dodger bells ring
are you listening 
at the Ravine
tears are glistening 
A beautiful sight
were happy tonight
walking in a Dodger wonderland

Gone away are the blue men
here to stay are some new men
We miss the old team
as we go along
walking in a Dodger wonderland

On the field we can bulid a new team
For the Holidays, we will sign a halladay
You'll say, can we afford him
we'll say: No man, but we can defer him
when he's in town
he can do the job

Later on
we'll conspire
as we dream by the fire
To face unafraid
the plans that we've made
walking in a Dodger wonderland

In the press box, we can dream of a new team
built with gold, We'll have lots of fun
even if we have to use the Fuller man's trust fund
we will find a way to get it done

When it snows
ain't it thrilling
Though your nose gets a chilling
We'll frolic and play
the Lasorda way
walking in a Dodger wonderland
Walking in a Dodger wonderland
walking in a Dodger wonderland

via images.talkingchop.com

Roger McDowell was born on 12/21/1960 and came  into the league when relief pitchers were still men, throwing 127 innings in only 62 games as a rookie in 1985.  While McDowell had his moments on the mound he was probably better known for his pranks.

While McDowell was a stable major league-level pitcher, he was also notorious in the league and among fans as a prankster who would light firecrackers in the dugout and light matches hidden under teammates' cleats. This was known as the Hot Foot. During a nationally televised game, he was filmed with his uniform on upside down – his pants over his head with his shoes on his hands. He also took part in an on-field mariachi band and wore earrings in the clubhouse to protest Cincinnati Reds' owner Marge Schott's banning of earrings.

McDowell joins other well known Dodger pranksters such as Jerry Ruess and Jay Johnstone. McDowell didn't join the Dodgers until 1991, and pitched for us for four unremarkable years. Primarily a groundball pitcher his success or failure was predicated on luck and the defense behind him, so with Jose Offerman as his shortstop he didn't have his best years with us. As an example of that in 1993 he gave up 32 runs of which only 17 were earned.  Almost 50% of the runs he gave were unearned.   McDowell retired in 1996 and rejoined the Dodgers organization as a minor league pitching coach from 2002 - 2005 before joining the Braves as their major league pitching coach.  Some of our best young pitchers tutelage'd under McDowell during his tenure as one of our minor league pitching coaches.

via www.orlandoweekly.com

One year ago yesterday TBLA hit the big time when Eric Stephen penned his first TBLA column showing off his affinity for mixing music and baseball to make his points.  Things haven't been the same at TBLA since Eric took over TBLA and as an editor and fan I just want to thank him for all his hard work, good humor, and patience.

I've made alot of bad decisions in my lifetime but this time I got it right. Usually hindsight is used to show when someone made the wrong call but when SB Nation told me that TBLA needed some new blood I never thought of anyone else, and for once I hit it out of the park.   Luckily for all of us, Eric didn't hesitate to say yes and quickly established that he could bring his humor and knowledge on a daily basis.  Hard for me to describe how lucky I feel to work with him, we agree on many things in the Dodger world, and in the bigger world but when we have disagreed it has always been with respect that we sort things out.

Congratulations on one year Eric, won't be long before Stephen Colbert is including you when he does his "better know a Stephen" segment.

via scrapetv.com

It has been over a year since we last had our Aflac correspondent check in with TrueBlueLA. For some of his past interviews you can check out the Duck Talk Section where we ask the questions we want to ask and try to see through the cliche responses we normally get.  For those of you new to Duck Talk, this is a complete fabrication based on interviews within my troubled mind.

Aflac Duck: The 2009 Winter Meetings have been completed and Dodger GM Ned Colletti has dropped by to discuss the team.

AFLAC DUCK: Welcome Ned, it has been over a year since we last talked to you. First off congratulations on another excellent season. Same result but this time you had a lot to do with the fact the Dodgers were playing in the NLCS.  Let us go over the successes of 2009. Before the season started you brought in Orlando Hudson, Brad Ausmus, Mark Loretta,  Randy Wolf, Ronaldo Belisario, Mota, and Weaver.  Each of these played a vital role in the 2009 season, some more then others. Besides those external free agents you managed to sign Manny, Blake, and Furcal to return to the positions they played in 2008. Then to top off that excellent pre-season acquisition list you also brought in Sherrill, Belliard, Padilla, and Garland to bolster the team during the pennant run. Everything you touched turned to gold. We were even calling you Goldfinger Ned for a while. Given your contract status It must have been very satisfying to see so many moves prove fruitful?

Ned: Yes, it was very satisfying, but since we lost in the NLCS all that success still means we have more work to do in 2010.

AFLAC DUCK: You recently signed an extension for five years so I'm sure the success of 2009 led to that extension. Did you ever feel you would not be the Dodgers GM in 2010?

Ned: It was nip and tuck. Now that I am GM I sure wish I had Santana, Bell, Watt ,and Abreu back but I needed to win today not tomorrow.

AFLAC DUCK: Of all the veterans who helped the team win in 2009 only Blake, Furcal and Manny are signed. Let's get right to the crux of the 2010 winter season. The Dodgers had several arbitration eligible free agents. Wolf, Hudson, Belliard were the key ones. Each had a unique argument for offering them arbitration yet the Dodgers did not offer any of them arbitration. WTF was the response of even the most ignorant fans. What was the reasoning behind this?

Ned: Contrary to popular belief it was strictly a "baseball decision" and not a financial one.

AFLAC DUCK: Can you be clearer on what that means?

Ned: I'll try to explain in words that even a duck can understand. Regarding Wolf, we simply didn't feel we could take the chance he'd accept (wink) and have to pay one of the great stories of 2009 more than 10 Million. (wink wink)

AFLACK DUCK: That sounds like a financial decision not a baseball one. A baseball decision would be that you don't think Randy Wolf belongs in your rotation. Given how all of baseball would love the ability to pay a top pitcher for only one year this does not smack of a baseball decision. Is your eye okay?

Ned: Semantics.

AFLAC DUCK: What about Hudson? You knew he would not want to return to the Dodgers after he was benched in Sept and the playoffs? Were you really concerned he'd accept arbitration?

Ned: Yes, it is not like we had a verbal agreement with his handlers not to offer arbitration if he signed with us back in March (Ned Winks) you know what I mean (Ned winks again). We just felt that as a baseball decision (wink) it was best if we let Orlando become a free agent.

AFLAC DUCK: Am I spitting? Cause if am, then I'm embarrassed that I'm going all Daffy on you. Let me clean your eye out. (cleans eye with duck feathers causing Ned to cough). What about Belliard?

Ned: We had our eye on another 2nd baseman and we recently just signed him. You know he was voted the Best Good Guy in the Indian clubhouse in 2009. You can't put a price on a good clubhouse guy.

AFLAC DUCK: How can you say that with a straight face? You're the guy who signed Padilla, extended Jeff Kent,  and signed Shea Hillenbrand.

Ned: They were good clubhouse guys in a different way.

AFLAC DUCK: Last year during the winter season we were talking about big names, now the Dodgers are holding press conferences announcing the signings of Jamey Carroll. Is this our future?

Ned: Yes

AFLAC DUCK: Speaking of Carroll right after the winter meetings ended you made a few statements that made it seem like the Dodgers were going to wait out this free agent class and try to get some bargains like you did last year. Then a week later you sign Carroll to a two year, four million dollar deal. What changed?

Ned: Are you kidding, he's bleeping Jamey Carroll and Billy Beane was in on him hot and heavy so we had to cut bait and make a decision. The Dodgers are thrilled to have the Kendall version of a part time 2nd baseman who can't play SS on the roster. Dodger fans just have no idea how important it is to have these 35 year old hanger onners on the team. Look at what Loretta did in the playoffs? You think Abreu would have gotten that hit?

AFLAC DUCK: Ah, speaking of Tony Abreu. I'd have to assume that in August the team must have figured out that they didn't want Hudson back in 2010. Given that Abreu was the next option for 2nd base in 2010 why would you trade a young team controlled middle infielder who played 2nd, SS, 3rd with a little punch for a few starts from Garland?

Ned: We had no choice, that is who the Diamondbacks wanted and we needed Garland?

AFLAC DUCK: He made six starts and zero starts in the playoffs. Did you really "need" Garland?

Ned: Absolutely, we didn't know Padilla was going to be successful when we signed him. With Kuroda's health in question, Billingsley not doing the job, Kershaw out, we were desperate for starting pitching. I'm going to miss Tony and I wish I had him right now but we were in a pennant race. This was the right move at the time.

Continue reading this post »

My favorite writer Joe Posnanski is at it again making the case for Tim Raines as a HOF. Having watched Tim Raines play baseball and Bert Blyleven thow a baseball I'm befuddled by the lack of respect HOF voters have had for their talents up to now. Granted on base skills are still not appreciated by those who vote for the HOF but you'd think being the greatest stolen base threat percentage wise in baseball history would resonate with the HOF voters. Given how quick they have been to decry the careers of the those tainted with steroid use you would think a player from the pre steroid era who put up numbers eerily similar to first ballot Tony Gwynn  would resonate with the HOF voters. You'd think, but you'd be wrong so far.

1. Tim Raines, 808 steals, 84.6%
2. Willie Wilson, 668 steals, 83.4%
3. Davey Lopes, 557 steals, 83.0%
4. Joe Morgan, 689 steals, 81.0%
5. Vince Coleman, 752 steals, 80.9%
6. Rickey Henderson, 1,406 steals, 80.8%
7. Ozzie Smith, 580 steals, 79.7%
8. Kenny Lofton , 622 steals, 79.5%
9. Paul Molitor, 504 steals, 79.5%
10. Luis Aparicio, 506 steals, 78.8%

Not often you hear about a player actually doing something they only intimate at when salary is being discussed. You will hear many times that money is not the number one item but in the end it usually it. Rarely do they put their mouth where the money is.

Well, Roy Halladay did that and more. In one of Joe Sheehan's better columns he correctly points out that the biggest story in the blockbuster four-team trade was not the trade itself but the contract extension that Halladay signed.

Halladay’s contract is so far removed from his market value that it looks like an error. Remember, he had to approve not only the contract, but the trade to the Phillies that precipitated it. He made the choice that he wanted to be with the Phillies so much—and wanted to be with them immediately so much—that it was worth it to him to leave $60 million, $80 million, maybe $100 million unclaimed. There is no way anyone could have predicted this even a few weeks ago. This is the kind of decision that a player gets to make for himself and his family. Halladay gets to play for a contender in 2010 and gets to do so with a team he wishes to play for, one that holds spring training near his Florida home, and he valued those things more than the marginal dollars foregone by not testing the market. I don’t judge him for it, but I do think we should all be stunned by how much money this man left on the table. There is no precedent for it in sports.

Joe might be accused of hyperbole by saying there is no precedent in sports; I expect someone will come up with a comparable, Ken Griffey's contract with the Reds comes to mind. Still this is an amazing development.  Arguably the best pitcher in baseball only signed a three year extension. Anyway I will now use this contract the next time Dave and I have the Wolf discussion.