SB Nation User Blog: PhillyFriar

John Sickels: Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2010

PhillyFriar — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:27:26 -0000

John Sickels: Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2010

Writes Sickels: "The Halladay/Lee trade is a strong blow; losing Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud rips the guts out of the system. Getting Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez in return helps some but none of them are as good as the three they lost."

His rankings back that up, as he notes that Drabek and Taylor would have received B+ grades, and d'Arnaud a B- or possibly even a straight B. As it stands now, the club boasts just 4 prospects above the C+ range.

Well worth a read, so go support our fellow SBN blog.

Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30: Take 2!

PhillyFriar — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:38:09 -0000

Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30: Take 2!

I know, I'm posting this again, but the process has obviously taken on new meaning with the Halladay deal (perhaps you heard of this?). Domonic Brown was the shoe-in candidate at #1, but #2 is open for debate today, and it should be interesting to see how the "wisdom of the crowd" shakes out. Feel free to jump in and voice your opinion.

(Offseason) Prospect Roundup: The Post-Halladay Edition

PhillyFriar — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 23:32:09 -0000

After much consternation, Roy Halladay is finally a Philadelphia Phillie. Many, including myself, would have thought that flipping Cliff Lee would provide the necessary prospects for Ruben Amaro to get his man, but that would have been too easy, right? Thus ensued the construction of a complicated four-team deal (or, really, a series of three two-team deals), and while it felt like it dragged on for weeks, it was suddenly done on Wednesday afternoon. When the dust had settled, the 2009 playoff hero was gone, along with 3 of the organization's top 4 prospects, and in their place was a new #34, and a new trio of prospects.

I'm not here to debate the merits of what Amaro did, not right now anyway. What I'm more interested in is assessing how those moves have impacted the Phillies' collection of minor league talent. The long and short of it is that the good Doc came at a heavy price: the Phillies surrendered 2 prospects that are probably among the Top 25 in all of baseball, and a third who I'd rate more highly than anyone received from the Mariners. Still, even after dealing away 7 prospects in a span of 5 months, the system is far from barren -- even if it's not the juggernaut it appeared to be a half-year ago.

Without further ado, then, check below the jump as I give my take on the new (if not exactly improved) list of Top 10 prospects in the Phillies system, with a particular emphasis on the new additions...

1.) Domonic Brown, OF-L, Reading
The "Big Three" is now the Big One, and Brown is far and away the top prospect in the system at this point. He'll likely begin next year back at Reading as a 22-year old, and there's still no rush to get him to the majors. The emergence of power last year (.205 ISO), paired with his already solid plate discipline (career 11.0% BB, 19.0% K), have him looking like a potential middle-of-the-order hitter.

2.) Tyson Gillies, OF-L, Reading
From off the radar before the year to one of the more exciting prospects in baseball. Gillies is essentially Anthony Gose, 2 years older, with ever so slightly lesser tools but far more in the way of present baseball skills. The California League is a hitter's haven, but Gillies' .341/.430/.486 breakout there last year stands out nonetheless. He's a slap hitter who controls the strike zone well (10.8% BB, 16.3% K), and he utilizes his speed to get on base -- 60.7% of his balls in play last year were grounders, and he's proven to be adept at bunting for base hits. His speed should prove to be an asset in center field and on the basepaths, but he'll need to work on the nuances of both -- neither his glove work (-8 runs/150 via TotalZone) nor his base stealing (44 in 63 attempts, 69.8%) graded out as stellar in 2009.

As a hitter, Gillies faces a big test as he climbs the ladder, beginning with Double-A next year. He'll need to do 1 of 2 things in order to avoid being relegated to 4th outfielder status: (1) develop more power (just a .090 ISO last year away from his hitter friendly home park); or (2) decrease his strikeout rate even further, to become an extreme contact hitter. Gillies' walk rate is solid now, but without an ability to drive the ball, pitchers at upper levels won't be afraid to challenge him over the plate. At 6'2", 190 lbs., it's not out of the question to think he'll add some power as he matures, but he's not likely to do it with his present swing mechanics. He'll begin 2010 in Reading as a 21-year old, and if all goes well, his ceiling is that of a league average center fielder.

3.) J.C. Ramirez. RHP, Reading
With the departure of Drabek, the Nicaraguan Ramirez (who goes by Juan in some places) becomes the organization's top pitching prospect. But it's probably more accurate to think of he, Trevor May and Jarred Cosart as a trio of high ceiling right-handers with similar ceilings in different stages of development. Ramirez is the farthest along of the three -- he took on High-A last year, but a quick look at the numbers shows that High-A won that battle: Ramirez went 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The advanced metrics show he wasn't that bad, however (7.02 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, 41.9% GB, 4.76 FIP), and where Gillies benefited from it, Ramirez's numbers demonstrate the other side of the California League: pitching there is almost impossible.

Keith Law wrote a blog entry back in March on Ramirez, describing him as having "No. 2 starter stuff" with a good fastball that touches 96 and an above-average slider, but a change up that needs a lot of work. In a lot of ways, he's a younger, slightly impoverished man's version of Carlos Carrasco: impressive stuff, but plenty of work to do on things like command, composure, setting up hitters, etc. The good news is that his stuff is obviously good, he's got a workhorse frame (6'3", 225 lbs.), and he's just 21 years old, so there's plenty of time for all of it to come together. The bad news is that if the change up fails to develop, Ramirez is ticketed for the bullpen. He did have an impressive 2008 as a 19-year old in the Low-A Midwest League (8.20 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 48.0% GB, 3.55 FIP), so maybe 2009 was the aberration. I'll venture to guess that the Phillies start him in Reading, but I'd probably start him in Clearwater so he gains confidence, and promote him when warranted.

4.) Trevor May, RHP, Clearwater
Another big right-hander, May showed flashes in his full season debut in Low-A Lakewood last year, whiffing 95 in 77.1 innings (11.06 K/9) and posting a 2.56 FIP. But he's a fly ball pitcher (36.6% GB) and has work to do on his command (5.00 B/9). Just 20, May will tackle Clearwater next year, and while he's several years away from the bigs, that also means he has plenty of time to try to work out the kinks.

5.) Anthony Gose, OF-L, Clearwater
The player development guys should give Gose the assignment of shadowing Gillies during spring training. His bat is his weakest tool, though he managed to post a not-terrible .259/.323/.353 line at Lakewood last year. More encouragingly, Gose improved his control of the strike zone in last year's second half (post-All Star: 8.0% BB, 16.7% K), which indicates an ability to make adjustments with the bat. That's something he'll need as he continues to climb the ladder. His tools are a tick above Gillies', which is no small compliment, but the 19-year old has a lot of work to do to get to the majors.

6.) Domingo Santana, OF-R, Williamsport
The youngster showed impressive power in his pro debut, ISOing .220 in the GCL -- not bad for a kid who played the bulk of the season at age 16. He'll have to cut down on the strikeouts (37.3% K), but he has a decent enough feel for the strike zone (11.3% BB), and has the speed and arm to profile as an above-average right fielder. As long as he's moved slowly, the Phillies could have something special on their hands here.

7.) Sebastian Valle, C-R, Lakewood
Valle has been the story of winter ball for the Phillies, mashing 10 HRs in the Mexican League (which features mostly Mexican pros and some Triple-A players) en route to a .280/.326/.576 line. He'll need to develop more patience, and his defense is a work in progress, but his power is already an asset for a backstop, and he's still just 19 years old.

8.) Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Reading
If you read something that says that Aumont is the piece of the deal that's here to replace Drabek, I'd suggest you stop reading it immediately. Both were high draft picks (Aumont went 11th overall in 2007), and both are righties with good fastballs, but past that, the comparison falls apart. Drabek still profiles as a #2/3 starter, while the Mariners were so concerned with Aumont's elbow problems that they moved him to the bullpen in spring training this year. He's likely to stay there, too: his mechanics have him throw across his body, which puts a strain on his arm, so he's not a good bet to hold up throwing 150+ innings per year. The bullpen suits him better, anyway; he's really a one pitch guy at this point, with an inconsistent slider and a below-average change up.

But now that we see what Aumont isn't, let's talk about what he is: a mountain of a man (6'7", 220 lbs.) who throws a big, sinking fastball, and who could probably hold his own in the major league bullpen at some point in 2010. The Phillies would be ill-advised to rush him, though, because some development time in the minors to hone his slider could make him a top flight reliever, even an eventual closer. His sinker touches 95 and helps him induce a bunch of ground balls (49.7% last year), and he has no trouble getting swings and misses, striking out 59 across 51 High-A and Double-A innings this year (10.4 K/9). His command needs work, as evidenced by his 23 walks last year (4.06 BB/9), and that's something he'll strive to fix at Reading in 2010.

9.) Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Philadelphia
From one reliever to another. With Scott Eyre a free agent, and J.C. Romero something of a question mark, Bastardo looks like a good bet to be in the Phillies' bullpen on Opening Day 2010. It's the role he's best suited for: his fly ball tendencies and not insignificant platoon split make him a bad match for starting in Citizens Bank Park. He has the potential to be a good, hard-throwing bullpen lefty for many years, especially given the havoc he wreaked on lefty hitters throughout his minor league career (.169 BAA, 11.70 K/9, 2.96 BB/9).

10.) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Lakewood
Even with Aumont on board, Cosart might have the biggest arm in the system. He touched 96 with the GCL Phillies this year, and in high school, he reportedly hit 101 on a throw from the outfield. He's considerably rawer than both Ramirez and May, but his ultimate upside is similar. He only threw 24 frames in his first pro season, so more than anything he just needs innings under his belt.

Condrey non-tendered

PhillyFriar — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 07:29:01 -0000

Condrey non-tendered

Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, and Carlos Ruiz were always certain to be tendered contracts, so the only question revolved around a pair of right-handed relievers: Clay Condrey and Chad Durbin. The Phillies ultimately decided to hang on to the latter, but Clay is now officially out of work. To quote Scott Lauber...

"The decision to cut ties with Condrey comes as a surprise, especially given Condrey’s $650,000 salary in 2009... Clearly, though, the Phillies believe they can better allocate the approximately $850,000 that they would’ve had to pay Condrey in 2010."

Meanwhile, the club decided that it's worth it to pay what will likely be in the neighborhood of $2 million to Durbin so he can walk 6.1 batters per 9 innings again next year (as he did in 2009). Have to admit I don't quite see the logic here.

Anyway, best of luck to Clay wherever he winds up.

Phillies Hot Stove: Low-risk, high-reward free agents?

PhillyFriar — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 23:53:24 -0000

This is too big for a comment but doesn't merit its own story, so I thought I'd toss it up as a FanPost. Editor's Note: I disagree. Front page ahoy! - WC. Ruben Amaro has made noises about signing some low-risk, high-reward type free agents, which is a great way to maximize available payroll. So I've gone ahead and done the work for Ruben: here's a list of low-cost free agents that should be of interest to the Phils.

Kelvim Escobar, RHP
Apparently he's in demand, but he shouldn't command much money coming off a lost 2008 and 2009. But even in very limited action last year, Escobar got his fastball up to 96, and he'd be a good gamble to improve the back of the rotation at the right price.

Chien-Ming Wang, RHP
Wang isn't technically a free agent yet, but the Yankees aren't going to tender him a contract by tomorrow night, so he'll be one very soon. Note: He was officially non-tendered Saturday night. Wang got hit around (1-6 with a 9.64 ERA) in limited action this year and underwent shoulder surgery on July 30. I'd prioritize him if I were Amaro -- effective starters with a career 60.1% ground ball rate don't come available very often.

Randy Johnson, LHP
No, you read that right. The Big Unit may decide to hang 'em up, but if he wants to return to the bigs, I'd be all for him signing with the reigning NL champs. He's almost certain to break down at some point, but he'd be helpful whenever he pitches, whether it be from the rotation or the bullpen (imagine the Big Unit as a lefty specialist... <shudders>). He still posted excellent peripherals last year en route to a 3.74 xFIP, and he's got a slider that simply doesn't age.

Brendan Donnelly, RHP
I liked Donnelly going into last year, when he was even more of a reclamation project, and he repaid the Marlins' faith in him by posting a 1.78 ERA over 30 appearances. He's effective against both lefties and righties, and he's posted good peripherals throughout his career (8.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). He apparently wants a major league deal, and with the Phillies' bullpen in flux, I'd be fine with giving it to him.

Joaquin Benoit, RHP
Benoit missed the 2009 season after having rotator cuff surgery in January, so he'd certainly be a roll of the dice. But he's a guy who misses bats (career 8.2 K/9) whose control had improved in recent years, and his 3-pitch mix, including an effective change up, actually gives him a reverse platoon split for his career. I'd venture to guess he'd only want an invite to big league camp, and I'd go ahead and give it to him.

Will Ohman, LHP
Ohman was a somewhat coveted free agent last offseason, but he waited around too long and only wound up signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers. His 2009 campaign wasn't so successful, but his struggles came in a 12.1 inning sample size, and he had been an effective LOOGY the 4 years before that. He's held lefties to a .204/.293/.355 mark in his career, so he'd be more than worth giving a shot to as a non-roster invitee.

Ron Mahay, LHP
Another potential LOOGY, only this time, the Phils are rumored to have some interest. Mahay isn't all that different form Ohman except he's older and pitched effectively last year; he's held lefties to a .233/.308/.395 mark over the course of his career. Ohman and Mahay seem pretty fungible to me, so I'd see which would have some interest in a non-guaranteed deal, and then go ahead and invite them to spring training -- with J.C. Romero still something of a question mark, it would be wise to include a veteran among the Antonio Bastardo and Sergio Escalona types who will be competing for a spot in the bullpen.

Russ Springer, RHP
Sure, he'll be 41 last year, but he's still getting his fastball up to 93, and he's coming off a 2009 in which he posted solid peripherals (9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9). His extreme fly ball tendencies last year (only 19.2% grounders) are a worry, but he's the kind of guy you give a shot to in spring training, and if he doesn't have it, no harm, no foul -- and if he does have it, then he's a better option than Chad Durbin, and at a lower price.

I'd use the rest of this space to give a mention to guys like Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ryan Church, and even Fernando Tatis, but the Phillies' bench seems to be all set. Hairston would be a massive upgrade over Juan Castro (a 34-year old with a .259/.328/.373 career line > a 37-year old with a .230/.270/.332 career line), and Hinske is essentially a better fielding version of Gload with more power and patience (see my rant here), but that ship has -- quite unfortunately -- sailed.

The bottom line, though, is that signing as many of the above guys as is affordable is far more preferable than signing Brandon Lyon to a 3 year, $15 million deal (that "Ed stole him from us" quote from Amaro still scares the bejesus out of me). So please, Rube: don't offer a similar deal to Fernando Rodney and his career 4.64 BB/9. Take a gamble on some of the above guys, and you'll be rewarded.

2010 Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30

PhillyFriar — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 23:51:26 -0000

2010 Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30

Here's your chance to weigh in with your own opinions on Phillies prospects. Phuture Phillies is back with its Reader Top 30 for another year, where the "wisdom of the masses" determines who the top dogs are in the organization's minor league system.

It's generally one vote per day, and a lively discussion always sparks up in the comments, so feel free to jump in.

Phillies select Angels RHP Kenneth Herndon in Rule 5 Draft

PhillyFriar — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:26:42 -0000

Just when you thought the winter meetings couldn't get any more exciting...

With the 26th selection in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft, the Phillies nabbed Angels righty Kenneth Herndon off their Double-A Arkansas club (who also, for whatever reason, goes by David Herndon in some places, including MiLB.com and Fangraphs).

The good news is that Herndon is an extreme ground ball pitcher -- inducing 58.5% worm burners last year, and 60.4% for his career -- and pounds the strike zone, surrendering only 1.4 BB/9 throughout 4 minor league seasons. The bad news is that he doesn't miss many bats, posting a paltry 4.8 K/9 last year, which is right in line with his career 5.2 K/9. If you're wondering how this makes him any different from Bobby Mosebach... well, I haven't the foggiest. In fact, they seem like the exact same player to me.

Whatever the case, it's another arm to throw into the spring training mix. Herndon's sinker/slider mix resembles that of current Phils reliever Clay Condrey, and Condrey probably represents Herndon's best case scenario: a serviceable front end bullpen guy.

In other Rule 5 news, the Mets selected Phils farmhand Carlos Monasterios, perhaps best known to the Philly faithful as one of the pieces the organization received in the infamous Bobby Abreu ~~debacle~~ deal. Both Herndon and Monasterios will have to make the 25-man rosters of the teams that selected them, or be offered back to their original clubs.

EDIT: Dylan Hernandez reports that the Mets have already shipped Monasterios to the Dodgers in exchange for cash. LA's bullpen looks pretty deep right now -- unless they decide to move guys like James McDonald and Scott Elbert to the rotation -- so I'd venture to guess that the odds of Carlos sticking there aren't great.

Phillies sign Brian Schneider

PhillyFriar — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:43:25 -0000

Phillies sign Brian Schneider

Right on the heels of the Mets signing Chris Coste, too... let the conspiracy theories of sign stealing and catcher espionage begin!

Schneider is a career .251/.292/.335 hitter, but has hit at least .417/.528/.837 against the Phillies in his career (don't bother looking it up, it's just a guesstimate). He's agreed to back up Carlos Ruiz because he grew up a Phillies fan, and as a left-handed hitter, he should provide a nice complement to Chooch. No word on money yet, but he'll obviously be taking a substantial pay cut from the $4.9 million he made last year.

[EDIT from David S. Cohen: And our own dajafi nailed this one a few weeks ago. Now if only he could tell us the lottery numbers this coming week . . . . ]

Analyzing the Third Base Candidates: Trade Targets

PhillyFriar — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

If the Angels re-sign Figgins or sign Beltre, would they finally make Brandon Wood available? (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Browse more photos »

On Friday, we tackled the free agent possibilities at the hot corner. Ruben Amaro is said to be leaning toward signing a free agent, but due diligence dictates a look at potential trade targets as well. I've tried to limit the discussion to third basemen who might actually be available (so you won't see Ryan Zimmerman listed below, sorry).

Without further ado, here's a look at how the trade market for third basemen shapes up: Brandon Wood, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Garrett Atkins, Andy LaRoche, Dan Uggla, and Alex Gordon.

Brandon Wood
Background: 25 years old, 1 year of service time (current club: Los Angeles Angels)

Upside: A former top prospect, Wood has never been given a fair shot in Anaheim. He developed as a shortstop and can probably still be functional there (a la former Phillies prospect Jason Donald), so third base isn't a problem for him defensively. His .286/.354/.541 line across 7 minor league seasons is impressive, perhaps most of all for the .255 ISO and 160 HR that accompany it. He seems like the perfect candidate to unlock his potential under the tutelage of Charlie Manuel and Milt Thompson. Plus, he's cost-controlled for 5 years.

Downside: He's struggled mightily in the majors, though it's been a mere 236 plate appearances and he doesn't turn 25 until next March. Wood has struck out a significant amount throughout his career (33.0% in the majors, 26.1% in the minors), but he made adjustments in Triple-A in 2009, striking out just 20.7% of the time while still posting a .264 ISO and 22 HR in 99 games.

Quick take: If the Angels lose Figgins and fail to sign Beltre, they may just hold onto Wood. Still, their reluctance to give him an extended run of at bats means they could be disenchanted with him at this point, and it makes him a great buy low candidate. It wouldn't be without risks, but dealing for Wood has fantastic potential rewards.

Kevin Kouzmanoff
Background: 28 years old, 3 years of service time (current club: San Diego Padres)

Upside: Kouz is good with the leather, posting a career best 10.7 UZR/150 this year. He's got some pop, too, with a career .174 ISO, and as a right-handed hitter, he'd reap the rewards of moving from Petco Park to CBP.

Downside: His career .308 OBP is a good place to start. He's essentially a younger Pedro Feliz with less contact ability, more power, and the same good glove/aversion to walks profile. Additionally, he'll get a substantial raise this year, as he's arbitration eligible for the first time.

Quick take: Kouzmanoff for free, as a 1- or 2-year stopgap, wouldn't be the absolute worst thing in the world. But the cost in prospects and salary simply can't be justified for a guy who is, at best, a very minor upgrade over Feliz.

Garrett Atkins
Background: 30 years old, 5 years of service time (current club: Colorado Rockies)

Upside: Atkins is listed here because he hasn't accrued enough service time to be eligible for free agency, but he's likely to be non-tendered by the Rockies, so a trade is probably unnecessary. At his best, Atkins was a .301/.364/.482 hitter during his four-year peak from 2005 to 2008. Plus, he's friends with Chase Utley!

Downside: Atkins has been regressing as a hitter for three straight years, culminating in an atrocious .226/.308/.342 line in 2009. It's not just bad luck on balls in play, either -- his line drive ratio was almost 6% lower than his career average, power has almost vanished (.116 ISO) and his contact rate has been steadily slipping as well. He was roughly average with the glove in 2009 (-0.7 UZR/150), but he's been a first baseman waiting to happen throughout his career (career -5.0 UZR/150).

Quick take: If Charlie and Milt want a challenge, Atkins could be their reclamation project of choice. Still, with a poor glove and rapidly slipping offensive peripherals, the upside doesn't appear to be all that great with Atkins. I'm sure he's on Amaro's radar, but the reigning NL champs can do a lot better.

Andy LaRoche
Background: 27 26 years old, 2 years of service time (current club: Pittsburgh Pirates)

Upside: After years of being stuck in the Dodgers organization, LaRoche finally got an extended run of playing time with Pittsburgh in 2009, and responded with a solid if unspectacular .258/.330/.401 campaign. He exhibited excellent control of the strike zone during his minor league career (243 BB, 294 K), and was plus with the glove in 2009 (5.1 UZR/150). With top prospect Pedro Alvarez in line for a call up in 2010, dealing LaRoche would make room at the hot corner in Pittsburgh.

Downside: At 27, LaRoche should be entering his statistical peak, and he's yet to live up to the promise that he showed in the minors. He was even in danger of losing his starting job in 2009 before a hot September. And, as the only worthwhile piece the Pirates received from the Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez deal (unless you're a believer in Craig Hansen suddenly finding his command), Pittsburgh may be reluctant to deal him.

Quick take: LaRoche certainly isn't a top shelf option, but depending on the cost, he's more desirable than the DeRosas, Tejadas, and Atkins of the world.

Dan Uggla
Background: 30 years old, 4 years of service time (current club: Florida Marlins)

Upside: He's a right-handed power threat who has never hit fewer than 27 home runs in 4 major league seasons. Uggla has even developed greater patience as he's grown accustomed to the majors, drawing walks in an impressive 14.0% of his plate appearances last year. And since he's (1) arbitration eligible and (2) a Marlin, you know he's eminently available.

Downside: Uggla hasn't played third base since he was in Double-A back in 2004, and it sounds like he doesn't want that to change. Even if he acquiesces, his .929 career fielding percentage at the hot corner means he'd probably be subpar defensively at best, and Ryan Braun-level bad at worst. He's shown a strange reverse platoon split throughout his career, OPSing 86 points lower against southpaws. Plus, he's due a substantial raise on the $5.35 million he made in 2009.

Quick take: The defensive concerns and the escalating salary outweigh the potential benefits here.

Alex Gordon
Background: 26 years old, 2+ years of service time (current club: Kansas City Royals)

Upside: Okay, so Gordon is the one name on this list who's probably not really on the trading block. There's been speculation as to his availability since the Royals manipulated his service time with a demotion in 2009, and the club did just trade for Josh Fields (although they claim they'll keep Gordon at third and play Fields in left). If available, Gordon's a former top prospect with a career .325/.432/.583 minor league line; he likely only needs regular at bats to improve on his major league .250/.331/.451 line.

Downside: If Gordon really is available, he wouldn't come particularly cheap; an educated guess would have the Phillies parting with at least Michael Taylor to get a deal done. Scouts remain puzzled as to why he's struggled in the majors so far, though it's probably attributable to a hip injury suffered last year. He's eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, so he's in line for a pay bump. Finally, he's left-handed, which would really, seriously unbalance the Phillies lineup.

Quick take: No harm in making the call -- Dayton Moore isn't exactly the sharpest of GMs, after all -- but it sounds like the Royals are smart enough to hang onto Gordon for the time being.

---

There you have it. Of the above, Atkins seems the most likely to don red pinstripes next year, while Wood and Gordon offer the most upside. I'll go on record now to say that Beltre and Wood are my top two choices, and that Kouzmanoff joins Tejada and Mora on the list of guys I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.

Analyzing the Third Base Candidates: Free Agents

PhillyFriar — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:43:44 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Could Adrian Beltre be manning the hot corner for the Phillies next year? (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Browse more photos »

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies aren't likely to be all that dissimilar from the 2009 version that came within two wins of taking home back-to-back World Series titles; 7 of the 8 starting field players return, along with the top 4 starters and much of the bullpen. Given that fact, it's obvious that general manager Ruben Amaro needn't do much to run out a title contender yet again next year.

Yet that single opening in the starting lineup is a glaring one: third base, where the Phillies haven't really found an acceptable solution since trading Scott Rolen away midway through the 2001 season. In a city where the greatest third baseman of all time plied his trade, this is certainly a disappointing development. Thankfully, third base appears to be Amaro's top priority this offseason, and while the term "buyer's market" may be a bit strong, the Phillies nonetheless look well-positioned to address this long-standing need.

So who's available? There are a number of free agents that fit the bill. Who knows how Amaro views these candidates -- TGP has disagreed fundamentally with Rube over free agent value before -- but for what it's worth, here's a look at the key free agent third basemen: Adrian Beltre, Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada, Troy Glaus, and Melvin Mora.

Adrian Beltre
Background: 31 years old, Type B free agent (most recent club: Seattle Mariners)

Upside: Beltre is the youngest of the free agent options, and he's also the best fielder. He's been worth 27 runs with the glove over the past 2 years (according to UZR), and he hasn't shown signs of slowing down. He's flashed decent power throughout his career (.183 ISO), and as a right-handed hitter, he should benefit immensely by moving from Safeco to OFJOAB.

Downside: Beltre won't make anyone forget about Pedro Feliz's impatience at the dish; he's a notorious hacker who has only walked in 7.1% of his career plate appearances. He was banged up this past year and only played 111 games, but the silver lining to that is that it could drive down his asking price. Prior to that, he had played 143 games or more in 7 straight years.

Quick take: He's the best of the free agent options unless Figgins drops his demands significantly.

Chone Figgins
Background: 32 years old, Type A free agent (most recent club: Los Angeles Angels)

Upside: Figgins has grown from super-utility guy extraordinaire to an excellent third baseman and leadoff man. A switch-hitter, Figgins drew walks in a career best 14.1% of his plate appearances this year, helping him to a career best .395 OBP. He's got good speed (42 SB this year, although 17 CS), and has grown into a great fielder at the hot corner, posting an astounding 16.7 UZR this year.

Downside: His career year has Figgins in line for a substantial payday, with his demands reported to be in the 5 years, $50 million range. As a slap hitter (career .388 SLG) whose game is built on speed, he's likely to have already peaked, and the downward career slope for such players is often quick and painful.

Quick take: Buying high on Figgins seems risky. If he'll lower his demands into the Ibanez range (3 years, $31.5 million), then maybe the Phils will have some interest, but that seems unlikely.

Mark DeRosa
Background: 35 years old, Type B free agent (most recent club: St. Louis Cardinals)

Upside: DeRosa has made a nice career for himself as a right-handed super-utility guy capable of playing pretty much everywhere but catcher and center field. He's exhibited greater patience and power in recent years, and he was outstanding for the Cubs in 2008, hitting .285/.376/.481.

Downside: You mean, other than the fact that he's a 35-year old coming off wrist surgery, a .250/.319/.433 year, and he's a pretty poor defender at the hot corner (-8.7 UZR/150 in 2009)?

Quick take: The former Penn QB angle is nice for sportswriters, but unless the Phillies miss out on a bunch of targets and DeRosa lowers his demands, I'd pass.

Placido Polanco
Background: 35 years old, Type A free agent (most recent club: Detroit Tigers)

Upside: The former Phillie is a solid if unspectacular player, displaying great contact skills over the course of his career (a mere 7.1% K) that make him a tough out. He's been an excellent defender at second base over the years, and he's said that he'd consider moving to third base for a contender; his arm isn't ideal for the hot corner, but his career 9.9 UZR/150 at the position indicate that he'd likely be fine there.

Downside: He'd be nothing more than a 1- or 2-year stopgap, and if the Tigers offer him arbitration, there's no way I'd want to surrender a 1st round pick for him. His career BB% is just one tenth of a percent higher than Feliz (5.4% to 5.3%), and he has nearly as little power as Figgins (.111 career ISO), so while his batting average may look nice, he's not all that valuable of a hitter unless he maintains an above-average BABIP.

Quick take: Detroit has until December 1 to offer him arbitration, and if they don't, the Phillies could certainly do worse than Polanco as a low-cost stopgap if they miss out on some of their bigger targets.

Miguel Tejada
Background: 35 years old, Type A free agent (most recent club: Houston Astros)

Upside: Like Polanco, Tejada would be switching positions, and no one's positive yet that Tejada won't find a gig masquerading as a shortstop somewhere. The power he flashed at his peak has receded, but he still posted a .298/.327/.435 line in Houston over the past two years. He's a contact-oriented free swinger, striking out just in just 9.8% of his at bats the past 3 years.

Downside: Tejada walked just 19 times in 674 plate appearances this year -- a mind-numbing 2.7% of the time. It's an open question how his subpar defense at short would translate to third base, and the Phillies seem to think that his reputation will command a contract that's beyond what they're looking to hand out.

Quick take: Sounds like the Phils will pass, which is a good idea given the rapid down slope of Tejada's production the past few years.

Troy Glaus
Background: 33 years old, Type B free agent (most recent club: St. Louis Cardinals)

Upside: When healthy, Glaus is a right-handed slugger who exhibits both patience and power. In 2008 with the Cardinals, he hit .270/.372/.483 with 27 HR and excellent control of the strike zone (13.8% K, 19.1% BB). And he's probably be available on a low-cost deal because...

Downside: ...he's not healthy. The Cardinals gave him only 4 starts all year at third base because they feared his surgically repaired shoulder just wasn't capable of making the throw across the diamond. Even healthy, he's not nearly as good a defender as the mainstream media would have you believe (career -5.4 UZR/150). The odds of him playing 130 games next year are, to be charitable, not good.

Quick take: There are simply too many medical red flags for the Phillies to entrust their third base job to Glaus.

Melvin Mora
Background: 38 years old, Type B free agent (most recent club: Baltimore Orioles)

Upside: He'd probably come cheaply. He's a career .278/.352/.436 hitter, but both his OBP and SLG have been down in recent years as he's adopted a more contact-oriented approach to compensate for the effects of aging.

Downside: He's an average at best defensive player (career -2.8 UZR/150 at third base), and... well, he's 38 years old. He could make some sense as a right-handed bench bat capable of playing all four corner positions, but his days as a first division starter are well behind.

Quick take: I will personally drive to Citizens Bank Park and heckle Ruben Amaro if he's even remotely considering Mora as a full-time starter at third base.

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On Monday, we'll tackle the potential trade candidates at the hot corner. In the meantime, what do you think about the free agent bunch? Would you prefer the organization go for broke to sign Figgins, or sign one of the "lesser" options and spend the savings elsewhere? Or are you pleading the fifth until you see what's available on the trade market?