[Edit by Dave: As you see clearly, this has been promoted to the main page. It is a continuation of Philski's excellent post entitled "What's the 'Point'" which you can read by clicking here.]
Sorry that I didn't realize that the previous post would be truncated. For any of those interested, here's the rest ...
With all of that background in mind, here’s the sorted list of ideal Blazer Point Guards from top to bottom:
Player
Rating
PER / $
Weakness
Chris Paul
77
4.4
Mediocre 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Steve Nash
76
1.1
Age
Deron Williams
73
2.8
Low 3Pt %
Jose Calderon
66
1.7
Weak Defender
Chauncey Billups
61
1.1
Mediocre FG % and Asst
Brandon Roy
61
5.2
Mediocre 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst
Tony Parker
61
1.4
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Mo Williams
56
1.4
Low Asst, Mediocre Asst/TO
Devin Harris
56
1.9
Low 3Pt %, Mediocre 3Pt Attempts
Rajon Rondo
56
9.6
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Leandro Barbosa
54
2.1
Weak Defender, Low Asst, Mediocre 3Pt % and Asst/TO
Jason Kidd
53
0.5
Low FTA, Mediocre FG % and Pts, Age
Andre Miller
52
1.2
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Mike Bibby
51
0.7
Mediocre Asst
D.J. Augustin
48
4.5
Low Asst, Mediocre PER
Steve Blake
46
2.3
Low FTA, Mediocre FG %, Asst and PER
Derrick Rose
45
2.2
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst
Ramon Sessions
45
16.3
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst
Derek Fisher
42
1.7
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre FG % and Pts
Rudy Fernandez
41
9.5
Low Asst, Mediocre FG %, Asst/TO, Pts and PER
Mike Conley
40
2.6
Low Asst, Mediocre Pts and PER
Kirk Hinrich
37
0.9
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre Pts
Jarrett Jack
35
4.4
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre 3Pt % and Asst/TO
Raymond Felton
35
2.2
Low 3Pt % and PER, Mediocre FG % and 3Pt Attempts
Aaron Brooks
33
8.3
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre FG %, 3Pt % and Asst/TO
Rodney Stuckey
33
5.9
Low 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst, Mediocre PER
Russell Westbrook
32
2.9
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst, Asst/TO and PER
Jose Juan Barea
30
6.0
Low Asst, Pts and PER, Mediocre 3Pt %
Sergio Rodriguez
25
9.5
Yikes !
Jerryd Bayless
20
2.8
Yikes !
I included another stat which is important when comparing players of similar capability. PER / $ takes the players normalized PER (their PER divided by 15, which is Hollinger’s average PER every year) and divides it by their “normalized” salary (their salary divided by $10M – a somewhat arbitrary number).
The easiest way to run an organization into the ground is to overpay role players. Mike Bibby had a good year for the Hawks, and is probably as similar to Steve Blake in his role with the team as Joe Johnson is similar to Brandon Roy. The difference is that Mike Bibby’s salary is nearly $15M, while Steve’s is just over $4M. The Hawks are paying over three times the price for a similar amount of production. Kirk Hinrich is another player who is overpaid, at $10M, for his level of production. Players in their Rookie contract, particularly those taken later, will obviously have the highest PER / $, so once you get beyond a certain level, the number doesn’t really matter. A number below 1.0 is low, between 1.1 and 1.9 is average, between 2.0 and 2.9 is good and anything beyond 3.0 is very good.
So what’s it all mean ?
If Steve Nash has anything left in the tank, and it certainly appears that he does, he would be an excellent pickup, but it would be somewhat of a risk, depending upon whom the Blazers had to give up.
Steve Blake is a pretty darn good fit for the Blazers. It’s also easy to see why it’s so effective when the Blazers go to a three guard set with Rudy, Steve and Brandon.
Mo Williams would have been an excellent veteran to pick up last year, and D.J. Augustin would have been a very good draft pick.
What’s worse about the Nuggets getting Chancey Billups is that they didn’t have to do anything negative to their team in order to do so. All they had to do was give up their most dysfunctional player … Sigh … Mr Big Shot would be a pretty incredible fit in the backcourt for the Blazers, but then what team wouldn’t be better with Billups running things.
Any of the players who shoot below 34% from 3 point range who might be available via trade or Free Agency (Andre Miller, Ramon Sessions, Raymond Felton) are probably not going to be help make things easier for Brandon. Those players need the ball in their hands to be most effective.
Leandro Barbosa might actually be a pretty good fit for the Blazers if he actually played defense or did anything other than create his own shot. I’d hate to think how many fewer touches Greg and LaMarcus would get if Leandro was attempting to run the offense.
It’s easy to see why there was such a buzz around trying to get Jose Calderon last year, although apparently Calderon makes Sergio look like Rajon Rondo.
Is Kirk Hinrich the answer ? I don’t think so, and if he does play a little bit better defense than Steve Blake, is that marginal improvement worth nearly $6M ? That’s like deciding that it was OK to spend an extra $30,000 on your new Acura, which had a base price of $20,000, because you wanted a sunroof.
The other thing that’s clear is that Jerryd Bayless needs to spend the majority of the Summer in the gym with John Townsend. Jerryd has all of the tools to be able to be the ideal PG for the Blazers, but he needs to be able to knock down open shots. He can get to the rim. He’s got good size, speed and quickness. He plays tenacious defense, albeit with a tendency to pick up too many touch fouls out on the perimeter, and he has tremendous athleticism. However, he’s got to be able to become as much of a threat from the perimeter as Rudy or Steve are right now. Once that happens, then the sky’s the limit.
Whomever ends up playing Point Guard for the Trailblazers, this year as well as in the future, will be a role player.
It’s important to accept that fact before going much farther.
The Blazers are Brandon’s team. The other backcourt players on the floor with Brandon will need to fulfill a particular role which will make things easier for Brandon. Brandon will have the ball in his hands at critical times, which means that the PG will need to space the floor, and knock down open shots. The PG will need to be a legitimate threat from distance in order to keep teams from collapsing on Brandon.
Ideally, the PG will also need to be able to play excellent defense, primarily by keeping the opposing Point Guards out of the paint. The ability to fight through picks, rather than having to resort to going underneath or just switching is critical.
The PG will also need to be able to run the offense, and get the ball inside to Greg and LaMarcus where they can be most effective. However, those Assists can’t come at the expense of needless Turnovers, so the ability to take care of the ball and regularly make the smart pass, rather than occasionally make the highlight reel is paramount.
Finally, the PG should be able to put pressure on opposing defenses by getting to the rim and either finishing or drawing a foul. Making the opposing Point Guard really work hard on defense is a great way to neutralize him and make him less effective.
In order to take an objective look at other Point Guards, I picked out a few stats which I felt were most important, and then I created a couple of others which I felt were necessary. The stats that I’ve chosen are the following:
FG % - It’s pretty obvious that, as a role player, the PG will not be able to be a volume shooter, so in order to contribute, he’ll need to hit a high percentage of the shots he does take
3Pt % - When the ball is in Brandon’s hands, usually at the most critical times, the PG will need to be a legitimate threat in order to keep the defense from trying to play five on four
3Pt/FGA – This is a stat that I created to determine the percentage of 3’s taken, with the thought being that if you rarely shoot a 3, then the defense is not likely to feel the need to close out on you (it’s all about spacing the floor and creating room for Brandon)
Min/FTA – This is a stat that I created to determine how often you draw fouls, with the thought being that those that draw the most are usually getting fouled going to the rim, as opposed to being out on the perimeter
Asst – The most obvious stat for a PG
Asst/TO – A critical stat for a PG in Nate McMillan’s system
Pts – Another fairly obvious stat
PER – This is Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating, which includes some of the above information, as well as other parameters
I took a look at several players – Two aging former premier PG’s (Nash & Kidd), two current premier PG’s (Paul & D Williams), several players in their prime (Calderon, Parker, Billups, M Williams, Harris, Barbosa, Miller, Bibby, Hinrich, Felton and Jack), several young players (Rondo, Sessions, Conley, Brooks, Stuckey, Augustin, Rose, Westbrook and Barea) as well as one obligatory L@ker (Fisher). The Blazers included in the list were Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, as well as Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy.
Once I pulled all of the stats together, I took a look at the data range, divided the range into 12 sections and then assigned a point value for each section. This is shown below:
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
FG %
50%
49%
48%
47%
46%
45%
44%
43%
42%
41%
40%
39%
3Pt %
45%
44%
43%
42%
41%
40%
39%
38%
37%
36%
35%
34%
3Pt/FGA
50%
46%
42%
38%
34%
30%
26%
22%
18%
14%
10%
6%
Min/FTA
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
Asst
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
Asst/TO
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
Pts
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
PER
20
19.4
18.8
18.2
17.6
17
16.4
15.8
15.2
14.6
14
13.4
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Mediocre
Low
So, the ideal PG for the Blazers would shoot 50% overall, and 45% from distance, with 50% of his attempts coming from beyond the arc. He would also get to the rim with great regularity, and shoot around one free throw every 5 minutes he plays. He would also dish out 10 Assists while turning the ball over less than twice a game (Assist/Turn Over ratio of 3.5). Finally he’d chip in around 18 Points per game, and all of that would result in him having a PER of 20 or better.
On the flip side, the absolute nightmare backcourt mate for Brandon would be a PG who shoots 39% overall, and only 34% from distance. With a shooting percentage that low, luckily only 6% of his shots would be 3’s, however he’d only shoot about one free throw for every 27 minutes he’s taking up space on the court. You might wonder exactly what he’d be doing, since he’d only dish out a little over 4 Assists per game, while turning the ball over nearly as many times. He’d manage to score about 7 Points per game, but Brandon’s game would likely suffer quite a bit due to the fact that the nightmare PG would draw almost no attention from the defense.
With all of that background in mind, here’s the sorted list of ideal Blazer Point Guards from top to bottom:
First of all, I think it's pretty clear that KP isn't afraid to pull the trigger and make a big trade, but so far, all of his big deals have come during the Summer, either during the Draft itself (Brandon, LaMarcus, Sergio, Rudy, Jerryd etc.) or just after (Channing). Once the season has started, it's been all about just learning to play together.
Each of the past couple years, there have been significant new additions to incorporate. Two years ago, Brandon took over as the starting SG. Last year, LaMarcus took over as the starting PF. This year, not only are Greg and Rudy getting big minutes, but Nicolas is starting at SF, and Martell hasn't played a game yet. That means that when Martell comes back (December 5th ?), there will be yet another adjustment period for the team.
Making a trade during the Summer is MUCH less risky. There are literally months to incorporate a new player into your system, and even so, there still might be an adjustment period once the season starts. Look at how much LaMarcus has struggled so far this season. It will likely take some time for LaMarcus to be able to learn when to assert himself when he and Greg are on the floor together, and it will probably take even longer for Greg's game and LaMarcus' game to really compliment each other.
2) Depth is a GOOD thing ...
The NBA Season is very long, and there are lots of injuries on every team. Before Greg had even played a game, there were several people over the Summer saying that Joel was now expendable. What are those people saying now ? Not only is it important having a player like Joel on the roster when things like a foot sprain cause Greg to miss two weeks, but over the last four games, Joel and Greg have combined to score 98 points (24.5 per game), grab 65 rebounds (16.25 per game) and block 16 shots (4 per game).
3) Competition is a REALLY GOOD thing ...
Jerryd Bayless hasn't played any meaningful minutes so far this season, but when you watch Sergio play, you should probably give Jerryd at least a little credit. Even before ttraining camp started, it was documented how hard Jerryd and Sergio were going at each other during the scrimmages.
Jerryd is making Sergio a better player.
When you look at how Sergio is able to handle pressure defense, you can imagine the number of hours he's had Jerryd right up in his grill. When you look at how much improved Sergio's defense looks, you can imagine the number of hours that he's had to try to stop Jerryd from driving around (or through) him.
4) Every player on this year's roster is important ... THIS year
The Blazers motto this Season is 15=16. All 15 players are important. All 15 players contribute. However, only some of the contributions are seen during the games. Will next year's roster be the same ? Absolutely not. There will likely be one significant player brought in next Summer. That player will certainly be a key rotation player, and might even be a Starter, depending upon where that person best fits in, but I doubt that there will be as many significant roster changes as there were this year.
The Blazers started a tradition last year by making a conscious decision to stop using the terms "Starters" and "Reserves". The players on the court at the beginning of the game became the "Black" Unit and the next group of five players to come in became the "White" Unit, referencing the color of their practice jerseys.
It's actually not too well publicized, but the other five players, who wore red practice jerseys, were secretly called the "Mighty McBob's", mostly by the members of the White and Black Units, but I digress ...
The current members of the Black Unit are:
Joel - C LaMarcus - PF Nicolas - SF Brandon - SG Steve - PG
The current members of the White Unit are:
Greg - C Channing - PF Travis - SF Rudy - SG Sergio - PG
In the 4th Quarter, when it's Crunch Time, the Blazers bring out yet another combination that has lit up the scoreboard for over 30 points in the last two games. In the 4th Quarter, the Blazers turn to their "WIN" UNIT
LaMarcus - C Travis - PF Rudy - SF Brandon - SG Sergio / Steve - PG
The Blazers are not at full strength, and they still have more than a few weaknesses to address. However, they're winning. They've played some very good teams, but they're finding a way to play well enough to win.
Why do so many people seem to care more about the number of minutes their favorite player is getting, rather than the final score ? Why should it matter ?
Does it matter whether it's Sergio hitting a "3" rather than Steve ? It's still three points for the Blazers, right ?
If Sergio plays 30 minutes, has 15 assists and 12 points, but the Blazers lose, is that going to be OK for all of the Sergio fans ? What if the Blazers win, but Sergio only plays 5 minutes ? Is that going to feel like a hollow victory ?
I'm a big fan of Sergio, and I would like nothing better than for him to play well enough to be able to win the Starting job. For that to happen, Sergio would really have to improve, but that would be great for the Blazers, because players playing better should lead to more victories.
If Sergio was to win the Starting job, then I'd be rooting for Steve to get better and take it right back ...
I like all of the Blazer players, but I like the Wins a heckuva lot more !
There is a pattern to the vast majority of trade suggestions that pop up on this site. Invariably, a player (or players) is identified who is either not playing much, or not playing well enough, and a trade is suggested. The trades usually consist of a package of Blazer players, viewed as being completely expendable, offered in exchange for a much better player. The motivation is basically disatisfaction. " ... What can I get for this no-longer-valuable Blazer ? ... "
The classic example is Ben's post on Sergio ... " What's the absolute minimum that you'd be willing to get back in a trade ? ... "
Sigh ...
Contrast that line of thinking with how KP has approached the draft. First identify a target player of interest, and then determine what has to be done to get that player. The question being asked is " Who do I want ? " That's a very different question from " What can I get ? ". In order to make a trade to get the target player, a valuable player might need to be traded, and then it becomes a question of whether or not the taget player is seen as being worth the price.
Assume for a minute that the Blazers are looking to get a Point Guard. In addition, assume that certain key young players are not going to be available because the price would be way too high (Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Devin Harris, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Jose Calderon, Rodney Stuckey). You could make the argument that one or more of those players might be available in a few years, but neither a top tier PG on a playoff team (Williams, Paul, Parker, Rondo and Calderon) nor a player viewed as the cornerstone of the future (Rose, Harris and Stuckey) are going to be traded unless Brandon Roy is part of the package, and everyone knows that's not going to happen.
With those parameters in place, the question is " ... Who do you want ? "
Make a case for the Point Guard you'd like to see in Blazer uniform this year before the Trade deadline.
The Blazers won 41 games last year without Greg, and they're at .500 so far this year with both Greg (other than 13 minutes) and Martell nursing injuries. The Blazers are not just one of the youngest teams in the NBA, but they're one of the deepest. The NBA season is a long grind, and having the depth to be able to overcome injuries is obviously very important. However, that's only one reason why depth is so important.
KP and Nate both talked during the Summer about how it was great that there was going to be some much needed competition for playing time this year. Having depth forces players to play to the best of their ability. They have to earn their playing time.
Why are so many people so anxious for the Blazers to trade players when they're not starting ? It's KP's job to stock the Blazers roster with players who can play. If there's someone who's good enough to play, but isn't getting minutes simply because someone else is playing better, then KP has done his job.
Why is Sergio getting limited minutes ? Steve is better at doing the things that Nate needs from the starting PG (defense, running the offense, taking care of the ball & hitting open shots). Why is Jerryd getting essentially no minutes ? Sergio is better at running the offense than Jerryd right now.
When Martell comes back, does that mean that Nicolas might go from the Starting unit, to seeing only spot minutes ? Probably. Nicolas has been doing a great job, and has actually been much better at hitting the open shot than anyone could have hoped, but Martell will likely be back in the Starting lineup once he's able to play.
What if the Blazers decide that Nicolas needs to play, and that Travis is better as a PF than a SF ? That might result in Channing getting little to no minutes. In all scenarios, a player who can play (and play well) is likely to get little action due to depth.
What's wrong with that ?
If a player isn't playing, then it's up to them to improve enough to force their way into the rotation. Despite the fact that people seem to like conspiracy theories, Nate is like every coach in the NBA. The players who are playing the best will play, and it won't be a surprise to anyone. At the start of the pre-Season when Steve pulled his hamstring, people were surprised to find out that Sergio was number 2 on the depth chart at PG. However, none of the players seemed surprised. Sergio was playing better than Jerryd, and everyone knew it. Jerryd didn't like it, but it's up to him to learn to run the team well enough in order to be able to take minutes away from Sergio.
Depth is a huge asset for the Blazers right now. The Blazers shouldn't trade anyone just because they're not playing. If the Blazers can make a trade to improve themselves, then that's something to consider. However, is anyone naive enough to think that KP is going to make a trade to "solve" a logjam at a particular position ? Depth isn't a problem, it's a luxury. Reducing depth would make the Blazers weaker, and more susceptible to injuries. KP is way too smart to even consider some of the ridiculous knee-jerk trades that have been suggested after only six games, with two key players still sitting on the sidelines in street clothes.
If the Blazers do make a trade, it's very likely that their depth will stay the same. Suppose that the Blazers trade RLEC and one of their young players. They're likely to get back a key rotation player. The bottom line is that Blazer fans should get used to seeing "good" players who are not getting much playing time. Having players on the bench, who belong on the bench is a very bad thing. Steven Hill lost out in his bid to get a roster spot with the Blazers because the coaching staff felt that Shavlik was a player who might be able to come in and play if needed. Steven was seen as more of a project. Steven would have been a bench player who belonged on the bench, at least at this point in his career.
Depth is something that KP has worked very hard to achieve for the Blazers, and hopefully that depth will continue to be an asset for years to some. That's not to say that there won't be some changes to the roster, but I trust that KP will continue to bring in players who are going to provide competition for both roster spots and playing time.
When you take a look at the Blazers roster, you have to believe that most of the positions are set:
Center: Greg & Joel - The Blazers are extremely fortunate. Injuries and foul trouble are a part of life in the NBA, and having two quality Centers is a luxury.
Shooting Guard: Brandon & Rudy - Once again, I can't think of a team with better depth at the "2". I think over time, the two of them will play together more, and once they are better able to take advantage of their strengths, they're going to cause a lots of sleepless nights for opposing coaches.
Power Forward: LaMarcus & Channing (& Travis ?) - Both Travis and Channing have been mentioned quite a bit in trade rumors, but at least one of them will undoubtedly be kept. I think either one of them can do a more than adequate job of backing up LaMarcus.
Small Foward: Nicolas, Travis & Martell - This was once a position of concern, but once Martell comes back, this could actually be a position that will be set for the foreseeable future. Who starts and who finishes ? Will it matter ? Even though his minutes are likely to dwindle to almost nothing, Nicolas might end up getting credit for getting Travis and Martell to focus on defense and rebounding first.
So, that leaves only one position ....
Point Guard: Steve, Sergio, Brandon, Rudy & Jerryd ? - The fact that there's so many possibilities, and no clear cut answer for the future says it all.
Steve would be perfect in the role that Joel has - an experienced, steady young veteran, who can start when needed. Steve provides leadership, and is everything you would want in a teammate, but he has his limitations. To his credit, Steve became a very good spot-up shooter last year when Brandon wanted the ball in his hands. Steve's a decent defender, but probably not good enough. Steve doesn't look to get his own shot, and that's good, because that's not ever going to be a part of his game.
Sergio is not nearly as good of a defender as Steve, and that's a big concerm, since it's pretty clear that Steve isn't good enough. Sergio also is not nearly as good of a spot-up shooter as Steve, but probably isn't any worse at trying to get his own shot. Unfortunately, that just means that he can't. Sergio would be great in an uptempo system playing for a coach that didn't mind occasional turnovers. That's never going to be the Blazers. If Sergio isn't happy with a role of being a change-of-pace PG, then he's the most likely of the PG's to be moved.
Brandon will always play the Point in crunch time, but I'm not sure that he'll ever be the full time PG. However, Brandon will determine who plays the PG for the Blazers. The PG of the future for the Blazers will not only need to play well with Brandon, but will need to defer to Brandon during all of the most critical game situations. One thing that I don't think will happen, however, is Brandon checking opposing PG's, even when he's running the Point.
Rudy handled the Point at times during the Gold Medal game, but when he and Brandon have been in the game together, Brandon has always initiated the offense. I like how Rudy moves his feet on defense, and against Phoenix, I thought he did as good of a job against Steve Nash as anyone else for the Blazers. I would like to see what Rudy could do at the Point for the Blazers. Hopefully, he'll get the chance, but I think Rudy will continue with his current role - check the opposing PG when he and Brandon are in the game together, but defer to Brandon on offense during those stretches of the game.
Jerryd is probably last on the depth chart at Point for the Blazers right now, but he has all of the tools to be everything that the Blazers need. Jerryd is probably the best defender right now, and he'll get better as he gets more experience. Jerryd also is able to get his own shot better than anyone in the backcourt not named Brandon. Jerryd is a very good spot-up shooter, but he does not get the ball where it needs to get to very quickly. Jerryd doesn't look like a natural PG. However, the Blazers desperately need Jerryd to develop into a PG. Jerryd has all of the physical tools to be the perfect Point opposite Brandon, but he has a long ways to go.
The question is, who could the Blazers realistically trade for who would end up being better than Jerryd could become ? How quickly can Jerryd learn to effectively run the team ? If this were two years ago, Jerryd would be playing, because the Blazers would be willing to let him develop, knowing that the Playoffs were not realistic. Times have changed. Jerryd needs to learn how to be a PG, but the Blazers can't afford to lose games while he does so.
LaMarcus has played 105 minutes in the first 3 games, and he has a whopping 6 Free Throw Attempts (2 per game), and 15 Rebounds, of which only 8 are on the Defensive glass (less than 3 per game).
Brandon leads the Blazers with 13 Free Throw Attempts (of which he's made 11, which is ~ 85% - much better than last year !)
Joel (obviously) leads the Blazers with 27 Rebounds, of which 19 are Defensive (over 6 per game), in only 78 minutes of action. Joel has also been to the line 7 times, even though he's only had 6 Field Goal Attempts (to LaMarcus' 52 FGA's !!!!!)
Here's another way to look at the difference, Joel gets a rebound once every 2.9 minutes that he's out on the floor. LaMarcus only gets a rebound once every 7 minutes !!!!!
LaMarcus and Brandon have played nearly the same number of minutes (105 to 110), and have taken nearly the same number of shots (51 to 52), but Brandon has more than twice the number of Free Throw Attempts, as a Guard, than LaMarcus does as a Power Forward.
Is LaMarcus going to get better at drawing fouls and grabbing rebounds ?
I think that this is a BIG issue ....
LaMarcus has so much skill, but he's got to put more pressure on the opposing PF's. He's got to win the physical battles ....
Phil
At the end of last year, when Nate indicated that Travis was going to have play exclusively at the "3" this year, some people assumed that meant that Travis was being handed the starting SF position. I always assumed it meant that there wouldn't be any minutes at the "4" this year. Mr 4th Quarter did a lot of his damage as a PF with LaMarcus playing Center. Travis is getting the opportunity to play some PF right now with Greg out, but eventually both Greg and Martell will be back. The big question is ...
For those of you who don't read Mike Barrett's blog, here are some reasons why you might want to listen to some things that Mike has to say.
2007 Pre-Season
1) Mike was one of the first people to mention James Jones' play during the Summer, and talk about what a positive impact that James should be able to provide.
2) Mike talked about Joel's improved Free Throw shooting stroke, and talked about how Joel would shoot 70% from the line for the Season.
2008 Pre-Season
1) At the height of Jerryd Bayless mania, right after Jerryd's MVP performance during Summer League, Mike said, " ... Don't forget about Sergio ..." He talked about John Thompson going to work with Sergio over the Summer to improve his shooting stroke.
2) All throughout the Summer, Mike has mentioned the play of Nicolas Batum. He didn't make any kind of bold predictions, but just kept talking about Nicolas' confidence level improving with each day, his shot looking better than expected and his play, in general, looking "smooth".
The bottom line is that Mike has more access to the Blazers than anyone else writing a blog. Mike watches the entire practice, not just the last few minutes (that might only consist of Free Throw shooting anyway). In addition, Mike has a great understanding of the game and is able to objectively report on how the players look. Mike isn't flashy, and doesn't try to call attention to himself with his wrtiting. He simply has superior content.
If you read blogs for entertainment, then you won't have any trouble finding writers who are more interested in sizzle over substance. If you appreaciate high level content, then check out http://mikebarrettsblog.blogspot.com/
If Nicolas Batum continues to play as well as he has, he will earn minutes. If he continues to not just play well, but actually improve almost every time he steps onto the court, he's going to be a rotation player. Nate's comment after the game was that if Nicolas can consistently hit his shot (like he did today, but that's still a bif IF), then he's ready to be a Starter in this league " ... right now ... "
The obvious question is who's going to lose minutes to Nicolas ?
I think it comes down to four scenarios:
1) Nicolas joins the White Unit and Travis Starts. Rudy joins Sergio in the backcourt, along with Channing and Joel up front.
2) Nicolas actually joins Brandon, LaMarcus, Greg and Steve as one of the Starters (the odds on that happening after Summer League had to be microscopic) and is the Blazers lock-down defender for the next decade. Rudy moves to the White Unit along with Sergio, Travis, Channing and Joel. Jerryd sees only spot minutes.
3a) Nicolas joins the White Unit, and Rudy Starts. In an effort to have a little more speed and athleticism, but sacrificing some rebounding, Travis moves over to the "4" and Channing heads to the bench. Nate knows that he can count on Channing to be ready in case of an injury. The interesting thing is that Channing would almost certainly start for LaMarcus if Lamarcus couldn't play a particular game.
3b) Nicolas joins the White Unit, and Rudy Starts. Travis goes all the way from competing with Martell for the Starting "3" to seeing Martell go down to injury (very speedy recovery, Martell !) to getting only spot minutes off the bench. That's quite a fall from last year for "Mr. 4th Quarter"
I've listed these in order of the likelihood that I think they'll happen, not necessarily what I think would be best.
Last year, Boston traded for Ray Allen (and some other guy with a really big mouth). Some people questioned the aquisition of Allen because Paul Pierce was a perennial All-Star Shooting Guard, and Ray Allen played the same position. No problem, the folks in Boston said, Paul Pierce will simply slide over to the 3.
"... But do you really want your All Star shooting guard, the best player on your team, to play out of position ? ...", the experts said. "... Paul Pierce is big enough to check the other teams SF, and he'll still have the ball in his hands at crucial times during the 4th Qtr...", replied the good folks in Boston.
We all know how well that little "experiment" worked out in Boston.
The parallels in Portland are obvious.
Here are a few other reasons why you'd want Rudy on the floor WITH Brandon and Steve.
1) With three players who handle the ball so well, the opportunities to create mismatches are many indeed. Flash forward to October 28th. Derek Fisher is checking Steve Blake. Steve runs the pick and roll pretty well, so that's an option, but Derek Fisher is also very used to defending the pick and roll. K@be is checking Brandon. Brandon runs the pick and roll very well, so that's another option, but K@be is also very used to defending the pick and roll. Lamar Odom is checking Rudy. Rudy can definitely run the pick and roll, and Lamar Odom will look ridiculous trying to keep up with Rudy. The same is true of most other SF's in the league. Brandon has shown that he can check Joe Johnson, who's 6'7" and 230 lbs. Brandon has shown that he can check Carmelo Anthony, who's 6'8" and 230 lbs. Brandon will be able to defend the "3" without any problem.
2) Greg has much softer hands than Joel, so when Rudy zips a pass to Greg, it will have a better chance of resulting in and "And1". Rudy will be better able to utilize his passing skills when he's paired with Greg
3) Rudy has clearly shown that if Brandon, LaMarcus and Greg are the "Big Thee", then he's the "Fourth Amigo". He has tremendous vision on the Court, a huge Basketball IQ, and wide array of skills. He will cause huge match-up problems for other teams. He needs to play BIG minutes.
4) Sergio and Jerryd have been playing very well together, and I think that they make a great back-up tandem.
5) Suddenly, Travis' game becomes valuable again when you bring him off of the bench. San Antonio is forced to bring Manu Ginobili off of the bench because they don't have anyone else that can get their own shot. Travis and Jerryd will both have plenty of opportunities to get their own shots for the White Unit. You actually WANT Travis and Jerryd to look for their own shot first when they're coming off of the bench. Sergio is the perfect facilitator, and he will always be looking to push the ball, which will make Jerryd and Travis even more dangerous. Let Jerryd and Travis both play to their strengths. Don't try to turn Jerryd into a primary facilitator. Don't try to turn Travis into a player who defers to his teammates and only spots up for three pointers.
The bottom line, as far as I'm concerned, is that even without Martell's injury (very unfortunate, and I wish him a speedy recovery), I think that having a starting lineup of Steve, Rudy, Brandon, LaMarcus and Greg might still be the Blazers best lineup.
With Martell out for at least a month, the Blazers have to rethink their lineup. Travis seems like the obvious choice for the starting “3”, but after last night there are certainly a lot of questions.
Travis is an isolation player. His biggest asset is his ability to elevate and get off his “wet” jumper. He is not able to catch and shoot coming off of a screen like Martell. He is not a good perimeter defender like Nicolas Batum appears to be. His ability to create for other teammates is completely non-existent, because he has a little bit of the Zach Randolph “Black Hole” offensive mindset. OK, he probably has a lot of the “Black Hole” offensive mindset. His game is actually pretty well suited to being a sixth man coming off of the bench and looking to score. So why not leave him where he can be most effective ?
Here’s a lineup to consider for the start of the season:
Steve Blake – PG
Rudy Fernandez – SG
Brandon Roy – SF
LaMarcus Aldrige – PF
Greg Oden – C
Why this works:
1) This solves the problem of getting Rudy more minutes
2) This is a way to get both Rudy and Brandon on the floor together, without worrying about either one of them needing to check an opposing PG
The Blazers did a lot of things pretty well last year, and that’s what resulted in 41 wins. However, the Blazers still had some glaring weaknesses, and that’s what kept them out of the Playoffs. The main reason for getting excited about this season is that the key additions this year should be able to directly address those deficiencies:
1) Improve Defensive Rebounding – Greg Oden will obviously be a big help, but being able to bring Joel off of the bench will be just as important. A great goal would be for the two of them to collect close to 18 rebounds a game. LaMarcus, Travis and Martell (in that order) all need to improve on the glass as well.
2) Increase Free Throw Attempts – Greg Oden represents the best chance for the Blazers to improve in this area, but Jerryd Bayless should help as well. People want to see Greg be a dominant force in the league, and the best way for him to do that is to get to the line close to 10 times a game. If he’s able to shoot around 80% once he gets there, then he’ll really be a force. Once again, LaMarcus, Travis and Martell all need to get to the line more frequently as well. A great goal would be for the Blazers to get around 30 free throw attempts per game.
3) Improve Field Goal Percentage – Greg Oden isn’t going to miss too many dunks. Jerryd should be a much better outside shooter than Jarrett Jack was last year, and Rudy should really help to offset the loss of James Jones. In addition, Brandon’s off-season focus was to try to become better in catch-and-shoot situations, coming off of curls. A great goal would be for the Blazers to be able to get their shooting percentage close to 47 %.
I didn’t mention anything about increasing their scoring average, because that’s a natural fallout of 2 and 3 above. If the Blazers improve in at least two of the three areas, then you can start printing Playoff tickets. If the Blazers improve in all three areas, then they are really going to be a force in the Playoffs.
This is my first FanPost to Blazer's Edge ... Dave's post on defense prompted me to generate this one ...
Bruce Bowen has set the standard for years as the premier Defensive “Stopper” in the NBA. He continues to get the assignment on a nightly basis to try to neutralize the opposing team’s best player, because he often does just that. Bowen is 37 years old.
The next tier of Defensive “Stoppers” will almost certainly include the following players:
Raja Bell, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Ron Artest, Andrei Kirilenko, Stephen Jackson and Ime Udoka. Bell is the oldest of that group at 32 years old and Kirilenko is the youngest at 27 years old.
The question that I have is who are the up and coming Defensive “Stoppers” in the NBA ?
Martell Webster has a legitimate shot at leading that up and coming group. Martell has gone from “not having a clue about defense” in Nate’s words as a rookie, to being evaluated as a “good” defender by Nate after this last season.
However, Martell had better continue to improve on the defensive end of the floor, because Nicolas Batum is waiting in the shadows …
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So There's an Upper Limit
by Philski on May 29, 2009 11:31 PM EDT
on Blazer's Edge
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