
Philski
Jun 09, 2008 Jul 13, 2009 16 74
RSSUser Blog
So There's an Upper Limit
[Edit by Dave: As you see clearly, this has been promoted to the main page. It is a continuation of Philski's excellent post entitled "What's the 'Point'" which you can read by clicking here.]
Sorry that I didn't realize that the previous post would be truncated. For any of those interested, here's the rest ...
With all of that background in mind, here’s the sorted list of ideal Blazer Point Guards from top to bottom:
|
Player |
Rating |
PER / $ |
Weakness |
|
Chris Paul |
77 |
4.4 |
Mediocre 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Steve Nash |
76 |
1.1 |
Age |
|
Deron Williams |
73 |
2.8 |
Low 3Pt % |
|
Jose Calderon |
66 |
1.7 |
Weak Defender |
|
Chauncey Billups |
61 |
1.1 |
Mediocre FG % and Asst |
|
Brandon Roy |
61 |
5.2 |
Mediocre 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst |
|
Tony Parker |
61 |
1.4 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Mo Williams |
56 |
1.4 |
Low Asst, Mediocre Asst/TO |
|
Devin Harris |
56 |
1.9 |
Low 3Pt %, Mediocre 3Pt Attempts |
|
Rajon Rondo |
56 |
9.6 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Leandro Barbosa |
54 |
2.1 |
Weak Defender, Low Asst, Mediocre 3Pt % and Asst/TO |
|
Jason Kidd |
53 |
0.5 |
Low FTA, Mediocre FG % and Pts, Age |
|
Andre Miller |
52 |
1.2 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Mike Bibby |
51 |
0.7 |
Mediocre Asst |
|
D.J. Augustin |
48 |
4.5 |
Low Asst, Mediocre PER |
|
Steve Blake |
46 |
2.3 |
Low FTA, Mediocre FG %, Asst and PER |
|
Derrick Rose |
45 |
2.2 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst |
|
Ramon Sessions |
45 |
16.3 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst |
|
Derek Fisher |
42 |
1.7 |
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre FG % and Pts |
|
Rudy Fernandez |
41 |
9.5 |
Low Asst, Mediocre FG %, Asst/TO, Pts and PER |
|
Mike Conley |
40 |
2.6 |
Low Asst, Mediocre Pts and PER |
|
Kirk Hinrich |
37 |
0.9 |
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre Pts |
|
Jarrett Jack |
35 |
4.4 |
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre 3Pt % and Asst/TO |
|
Raymond Felton |
35 |
2.2 |
Low 3Pt % and PER, Mediocre FG % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Aaron Brooks |
33 |
8.3 |
Low Asst and PER, Mediocre FG %, 3Pt % and Asst/TO |
|
Rodney Stuckey |
33 |
5.9 |
Low 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst, Mediocre PER |
|
Russell Westbrook |
32 |
2.9 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst, Asst/TO and PER |
|
Jose Juan Barea |
30 |
6.0 |
Low Asst, Pts and PER, Mediocre 3Pt % |
|
Sergio Rodriguez |
25 |
9.5 |
Yikes ! |
|
Jerryd Bayless |
20 |
2.8 |
Yikes ! |
I included another stat which is important when comparing players of similar capability. PER / $ takes the players normalized PER (their PER divided by 15, which is Hollinger’s average PER every year) and divides it by their “normalized” salary (their salary divided by $10M – a somewhat arbitrary number).
The easiest way to run an organization into the ground is to overpay role players. Mike Bibby had a good year for the Hawks, and is probably as similar to Steve Blake in his role with the team as Joe Johnson is similar to Brandon Roy. The difference is that Mike Bibby’s salary is nearly $15M, while Steve’s is just over $4M. The Hawks are paying over three times the price for a similar amount of production. Kirk Hinrich is another player who is overpaid, at $10M, for his level of production. Players in their Rookie contract, particularly those taken later, will obviously have the highest PER / $, so once you get beyond a certain level, the number doesn’t really matter. A number below 1.0 is low, between 1.1 and 1.9 is average, between 2.0 and 2.9 is good and anything beyond 3.0 is very good.
So what’s it all mean ?
If Steve Nash has anything left in the tank, and it certainly appears that he does, he would be an excellent pickup, but it would be somewhat of a risk, depending upon whom the Blazers had to give up.
Steve Blake is a pretty darn good fit for the Blazers. It’s also easy to see why it’s so effective when the Blazers go to a three guard set with Rudy, Steve and Brandon.
Mo Williams would have been an excellent veteran to pick up last year, and D.J. Augustin would have been a very good draft pick.
What’s worse about the Nuggets getting Chancey Billups is that they didn’t have to do anything negative to their team in order to do so. All they had to do was give up their most dysfunctional player … Sigh … Mr Big Shot would be a pretty incredible fit in the backcourt for the Blazers, but then what team wouldn’t be better with Billups running things.
Any of the players who shoot below 34% from 3 point range who might be available via trade or Free Agency (Andre Miller, Ramon Sessions, Raymond Felton) are probably not going to be help make things easier for Brandon. Those players need the ball in their hands to be most effective.
Leandro Barbosa might actually be a pretty good fit for the Blazers if he actually played defense or did anything other than create his own shot. I’d hate to think how many fewer touches Greg and LaMarcus would get if Leandro was attempting to run the offense.
It’s easy to see why there was such a buzz around trying to get Jose Calderon last year, although apparently Calderon makes Sergio look like Rajon Rondo.
Is Kirk Hinrich the answer ? I don’t think so, and if he does play a little bit better defense than Steve Blake, is that marginal improvement worth nearly $6M ? That’s like deciding that it was OK to spend an extra $30,000 on your new Acura, which had a base price of $20,000, because you wanted a sunroof.
The other thing that’s clear is that Jerryd Bayless needs to spend the majority of the Summer in the gym with John Townsend. Jerryd has all of the tools to be able to be the ideal PG for the Blazers, but he needs to be able to knock down open shots. He can get to the rim. He’s got good size, speed and quickness. He plays tenacious defense, albeit with a tendency to pick up too many touch fouls out on the perimeter, and he has tremendous athleticism. However, he’s got to be able to become as much of a threat from the perimeter as Rudy or Steve are right now. Once that happens, then the sky’s the limit.
Phil
78 comments | 12 recs
What's the "Point" ...
Whomever ends up playing Point Guard for the Trailblazers, this year as well as in the future, will be a role player.
It’s important to accept that fact before going much farther.
The Blazers are Brandon’s team. The other backcourt players on the floor with Brandon will need to fulfill a particular role which will make things easier for Brandon. Brandon will have the ball in his hands at critical times, which means that the PG will need to space the floor, and knock down open shots. The PG will need to be a legitimate threat from distance in order to keep teams from collapsing on Brandon.
Ideally, the PG will also need to be able to play excellent defense, primarily by keeping the opposing Point Guards out of the paint. The ability to fight through picks, rather than having to resort to going underneath or just switching is critical.
The PG will also need to be able to run the offense, and get the ball inside to Greg and LaMarcus where they can be most effective. However, those Assists can’t come at the expense of needless Turnovers, so the ability to take care of the ball and regularly make the smart pass, rather than occasionally make the highlight reel is paramount.
Finally, the PG should be able to put pressure on opposing defenses by getting to the rim and either finishing or drawing a foul. Making the opposing Point Guard really work hard on defense is a great way to neutralize him and make him less effective.
In order to take an objective look at other Point Guards, I picked out a few stats which I felt were most important, and then I created a couple of others which I felt were necessary. The stats that I’ve chosen are the following:
FG % - It’s pretty obvious that, as a role player, the PG will not be able to be a volume shooter, so in order to contribute, he’ll need to hit a high percentage of the shots he does take
3Pt % - When the ball is in Brandon’s hands, usually at the most critical times, the PG will need to be a legitimate threat in order to keep the defense from trying to play five on four
3Pt/FGA – This is a stat that I created to determine the percentage of 3’s taken, with the thought being that if you rarely shoot a 3, then the defense is not likely to feel the need to close out on you (it’s all about spacing the floor and creating room for Brandon)
Min/FTA – This is a stat that I created to determine how often you draw fouls, with the thought being that those that draw the most are usually getting fouled going to the rim, as opposed to being out on the perimeter
Asst – The most obvious stat for a PG
Asst/TO – A critical stat for a PG in Nate McMillan’s system
Pts – Another fairly obvious stat
PER – This is Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating, which includes some of the above information, as well as other parameters
I took a look at several players – Two aging former premier PG’s (Nash & Kidd), two current premier PG’s (Paul & D Williams), several players in their prime (Calderon, Parker, Billups, M Williams, Harris, Barbosa, Miller, Bibby, Hinrich, Felton and Jack), several young players (Rondo, Sessions, Conley, Brooks, Stuckey, Augustin, Rose, Westbrook and Barea) as well as one obligatory L@ker (Fisher). The Blazers included in the list were Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, as well as Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy.
Once I pulled all of the stats together, I took a look at the data range, divided the range into 12 sections and then assigned a point value for each section. This is shown below:
|
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
FG % |
50% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
39% |
|
3Pt % |
45% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
39% |
38% |
37% |
36% |
35% |
34% |
|
3Pt/FGA |
50% |
46% |
42% |
38% |
34% |
30% |
26% |
22% |
18% |
14% |
10% |
6% |
|
Min/FTA |
5 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
27 |
|
Asst |
10 |
9.5 |
9 |
8.5 |
8 |
7.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
6 |
5.5 |
5 |
4.5 |
|
Asst/TO |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
|
Pts |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
|
PER |
20 |
19.4 |
18.8 |
18.2 |
17.6 |
17 |
16.4 |
15.8 |
15.2 |
14.6 |
14 |
13.4 |
|
Excellent |
Very Good |
Good |
Mediocre |
Low |
||||||||
So, the ideal PG for the Blazers would shoot 50% overall, and 45% from distance, with 50% of his attempts coming from beyond the arc. He would also get to the rim with great regularity, and shoot around one free throw every 5 minutes he plays. He would also dish out 10 Assists while turning the ball over less than twice a game (Assist/Turn Over ratio of 3.5). Finally he’d chip in around 18 Points per game, and all of that would result in him having a PER of 20 or better.
On the flip side, the absolute nightmare backcourt mate for Brandon would be a PG who shoots 39% overall, and only 34% from distance. With a shooting percentage that low, luckily only 6% of his shots would be 3’s, however he’d only shoot about one free throw for every 27 minutes he’s taking up space on the court. You might wonder exactly what he’d be doing, since he’d only dish out a little over 4 Assists per game, while turning the ball over nearly as many times. He’d manage to score about 7 Points per game, but Brandon’s game would likely suffer quite a bit due to the fact that the nightmare PG would draw almost no attention from the defense.
With all of that background in mind, here’s the sorted list of ideal Blazer Point Guards from top to bottom:
|
Player |
Rating |
PER / $ |
Weakness |
|
Chris Paul |
77 |
4.4 |
Mediocre 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Steve Nash |
76 |
1.1 |
Age |
|
Deron Williams |
73 |
2.8 |
Low 3Pt % |
|
Jose Calderon |
66 |
1.7 |
Weak Defender |
|
Chauncey Billups |
61 |
1.1 |
Mediocre FG % and Asst |
|
Brandon Roy |
61 |
5.2 |
Mediocre 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst |
|
Tony Parker |
61 |
1.4 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Mo Williams |
56 |
1.4 |
Low Asst, Mediocre Asst/TO |
|
Devin Harris |
56 |
1.9 |
Low 3Pt %, Mediocre 3Pt Attempts |
|
Rajon Rondo |
56 |
9.6 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
by