Back in January, I wrote an article discussing how a wide receiver's height/body mass index (BMI) combination is a critical component to their chances of developing into an elite player.  As it turns out, elite receivers come from four small intersections of height and BMI.

Here is a rough approximation of what those areas look like on a graph:

via static.fantasyfootballcalculator.com

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The job description of an NFL cornerback typically paints the picture of his working conditions as being alone on an island.  Unfortunately for Miami, those islands are looking mighty vulnerable these days.

I agree with the team's decision to forego overspending to re-sign an old, creaky Andre' Goodman whose great half-season in 2008 bears no resemblance to the rest of his 6 ½ year career.  However, the depth remaining at the position is paper thin, and apart from Will Allen, who will be 31 when the season begins, there aren't any proven players who can be counted on to start.

So how does the front office attempt to alleviate this problem?  By signing Eric Green and bringing in Demarcus Faggins for a tryout.

I bashed the team's signing of Jake Grove two weeks ago, and I stand before you again (figuratively, of course) to say that signing Eric Green is a bad move.  Signing Faggins would be mistake number three.

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On Tuesday, March 3, 2009, Jeff Ireland and Bill Parcells made the first blatantly questionable personnel move during their tenure as leaders of this franchise by handing over a five-year, $29.5 million contract to Jake Grove.

Sure, the Ernest Wilford signing looks like a huge debacle right about now, and the Boomer Grigsby acquisition was a failure, and it looks like the team may have botched the whole "trade up in the draft to take Shawn Murphy" thing, but those moves were at least logically defendable at the time they were made.

Giving Jake Grove $14 million in guaranteed money to become the Dolphins' new starting center, however, is not.

Let us count the ways in which Grove is inferior to the man he is replacing:

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With the Scouting Combine wrapping up earlier this week, I had planned to use the running backs' 40-yard dash data to introduce some of you to a really useful metric developed last year by the guys at Football Outsiders known as Speed Score.

Well, they ended up beating me to the punch.

Nevertheless, their article helps me because now I don't have to go through all the Combine data and do the calculations myself.  And of course, I'll be tailoring the conclusions to a Dolphins' perspective.

So without further ado, let me introduce the 40-Yard Speed Score.

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There's been some good discussion around the site the last few days regarding Vernon Carey's impending free agency.  I'd like to flesh that out a bit more by looking at exactly what we have in Carey as compared to our options in free agency and the draft.

I think Carey has taken some unjustified flak from some writers I've seen on the web for not being as visually dominant as they believe he should be.  They've watched the tape and they've concluded that Vernon simply doesn't do a good enough job blowing his man off the ball or generally acting like the mauler his frame and physical abilities would presuppose him to be.  And those observations are certainly correct on more plays than I'd like, but his inability to visually wow us with his run blocking should not cloud the fact that he is an upper echelon right tackle in this league, and our lack of rushing success this season is much more a factor of the middle three linemen than the bookends.

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This week, I'm going to eschew the inclusion of lots of numbers or tables in my column. (Cue the loud cheers from many of you.)

However, I'm doing this in order to talk to you all about...numbers and tables and statistics.  (Cue the ranting and raving from those same people.)

You see, most of you probably noticed the uproar that broke out here about a week or so ago regarding the influx of statistical discussion and analysis on this site.  To be honest, I've been noticing the backlash ever since I started my weekly column at The Phinsider.  While I've gotten several encouraging responses letting me know that there is a definite population of the readership here that enjoys and wants to see more statistical-based analysis, there has been just as many of you that are, for whatever reason, infuriated by its recent inclusion.

And I'm not sure why that is.

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I'm getting this column up a day early this week because I'll be busy skiing during my usual posting day on Thursday.

One of the aspects of baseball that I think is missing to some extent from the NFL is any sort of true developmental league.  Obviously, the long player progression timeline in baseball makes minor-league teams an essential.  In football, rookies are generally older and more prepared to play then their baseball counterparts.  But there still exists a section of young, untested players in the NFL that should be considered prospects.

The only difference between a football prospect and a baseball prospect is that the football prospect is generally stuck behind a player or two on the depth chart and is only able to show their abilities in practice or in limited on-field opportunities.  In baseball, minor leaguers get to play every day down on the farm as they work their way up through the system until they reach the big league club.

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This column is the second half of my look back at the community projections that were compiled here before this season began.  Last week, I looked at the defensive projections.  This week, I'll be taking a look at the three offensive players that were chosen to perform projections on (Ted Ginn was also done, but I've already discussed him in a previous column.)

In general, the community's projections for the defensive players were all overly optimistic.  It will be interesting to see if that is the case with the offensive players as well.

In addition to the Phinsider projections and the actual performances, I'll be including the KUBIAK projections from Pro Football Prospectus 2008.

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Last week, in discussing the misguided expectations that some of us have for Ted Ginn, I looked at The Phinsider community projections that were done before this season began.

Generally, when taking the pulse of any team, the aggregated opinions of that team's fan base will almost assuredly tip the scales heavily in the optimistic direction.  It's natural for fans to think more highly of their team's players than reality might dictate.

Ginn's projections were a perfect example of this "homer-ism," if you will.  So I wanted to go back and look at the other community projections that were done before this season and judge their accuracy.

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Before I get into the meat of my column today, I wanted to quickly answer a question that a reader (DolfinPhan) asked in the comments of last week's column.  He wanted to know the drop-off, if there was any, in Miami's run-blocking after Justin Smiley was replaced in the lineup by Andy Alleman.

In some of the discussion here on the site, it seemed like a lot of people thought the running game remained relatively unscathed after Smiley's injury.  And while I really like what Alleman brings to the table as a young prospect, the running game did in fact suffer significantly from Week 13 on.

According to Football Outsiders, Miami's rushing DVOA with Smiley in the lineup was 8.1%; without him, it dropped to 1.9%.  Now, that may not seem like a big difference, but consider this: If those DVOA rates were the season-totals, Miami's running attack with Smiley would have ranked 7th overall in the league.  Sans Smiley, the Dolphins' run game would have fallen to 14th.

Now, onto the main topic of discussion: Ted Ginn.

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Greetings everyone.

This is the first edition of a new weekly column here on The Phinsider that I'll be writing.  I was very pleased when Matty asked me about writing for the site because I've been reading it almost from its inception, and I respect the immense amount of effort he puts into it.

Most of all I appreciate the community that's been growing rapidly here and the opportunity to share my thoughts with you.

It's a bit daunting trying to squeeze myself in between the hilarious stream-of-consciousness that is "Inside the Mind," Little Nicky's timely analysis, and Matty's daily updates, but I'll try to bring something fresh to the table.

As you can probably tell by the title of my column (Numbers Can't Lie), I'm going to spend a lot of time focusing on statistical analysis, but I also want to periodically delve into some issues concerning broader football theory and really question some of the generally accepted notions about the game which may or may not hold up under increased scrutiny.

Now, hopefully, that little explanation didn't scare anyone away because I never want this column to be unnecessarily bogged down in arcane calculations.  I'm no math wizard and advanced mathematics usually doesn't interest me.  The analysis of sports statistics, however, is an area that greatly intrigues me.

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I've been trying to put my finger on exactly how I felt after this loss, and the end to this season.

In all honesty, I wasn't overly saddened.

Dissapointed? Sure, in some respects. I didn't agree with some of the coaching philosophy in the game and several players played poorly. But I wasn't angry, surprised, or upset.

I went into this season thinking that a really good year would net about six wins. I purposefully measured my expectations so as to avoid the monumental disappointment that comes from manufactured and overly bright perceptions.

And then magic happened.

Chad Pennington fell into our laps from all the way up in New York, and the team just took off under Tony Sparano's leadership, providing us with one of the most remarkable seasons in memory.

But the success of this one season did not change any of my expectations. This was still a team with a long-term plan, and any short-term successes are just icing on the cake - proof that the rebuilding effort is on the right track.

Did this team deserve to be in the playoffs this year? Absolutely they did. That doesn't mean they were true Super Bowl contenders though. That status is still a year or two down the road.

So I guess I didn't feel any of those negative feelings I talked about to begin with, because I simply felt hopeful...and proud.

Hopeful, because I didn't get the feeling that this achievement was fleeting. In no way are the playoffs now a guaranteed event in Miami, but there won't be anymore postseason droughts there either.

And proud, because this team is simply easy to cheer for. They have heart, they have grit, and for the most part they routinely display the kind of attitude that makes you appreciate the fact that the aqua and orange is your team - our team.

Thanks for the great season, guys.

[Note: This post comes from a piece I originally wrote for my site.  Matty I and myself have been discussing a possible new front-page column for The Phinsider which I would be writing.  That may start in the near future, so I look forward to discussing the Dolphins more with everyone here.]

I've been asked by a couple Phinsider regulars to post one or two of my pieces from my own Dolphins site (Phinaticism) here at the Phinsider.

I thought I'd give it a try to see what you guys think.

Here's a piece I just wrote analyzing how Baltimore and Miami have changed since the first time they met up this season.  If you like it (or not) let me know so I'll have an idea if I should post these kind of things in the future.

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Before I look at how good the Ravens are now, I want to go back to look at how good both they and the Dolphins were playing following their first matchup.

I'll be using the Football Outsider's DVOA ratings, so check out that site's explanations if you aren't familiar with these numbers.

Baltimore was ranked 7th overall in DVOA at 20.2%. Their offense and special teams were struggling with negative DVOAs of -3.5% (23rd in NFL) and -1.9% (26th) respectively. However, their defense was absolutely dominating with the best DVOA in the league at -25.5% (remember, negative DVOAs are good for defenses).

Meanwhile, Miami had the 13th best overall DVOA following that game at 9.8%. Thanks in large part to the tremendous immediate impacts of the Wildcat, Miami had the 3rd highest rated offense with a 22.2% DVOA. The defense was playing right around league average (2.3%, 16th) and the special teams were horrendous (-10.0%, 31st).

So how have these two teams changed since then. Here's how both teams Weighted DVOAs look following the regular season. The weighted numbers better reflect how teams are playing right now.

Baltimore:

• Weighted DVOA (29.7%, 3rd best)
• Weighted Offense (5.7%, 15th)
• Weighted Defense (-22.3%, 3rd)
• Weighted Special teams (1.8%, 13th)

Miami:

• Weighted DVOA (7.5%, 13th)
• Weighted Offense (17.3%, 9th)
• Weighted Defense (7.0%, 17th)
• Weighted Special teams (-2.8%, 28th)

So what's changed?

Well, for Baltimore, their defense has remained one of the truly elite units all season long. Their offense, however, improved to the point that it is helping the team win games now rather than just accompanying the defense to victories. Their special teams units stayed relatively the same.

For Miami, its weighted DVOA is similar to its regular DVOA following the first game. The offense is still playing with incredible efficiency, although it's not quite as potent as it was. The defense slipped slightly while the special teams has improved a decent amount.

So at first glance, it looks like Baltimore got appreciably better in the two units that were hampering it the most while maintaining its stifling defense. That's not good news for the Dolphins.

It will be an interesting dynamic to see such a turnover-averse offense like Miami's go up against the take-away machine of the Ravens. Last time, the Ravens got the better of that matchup by capitalizing on one of Pennington's few mistakes all season long.

Baltimore completely shut down the Wildcat the first time around. Miami is now without Justin Smiley and Greg Camarillo, and possibly David Martin. In all likelihood, scoring opportunities for Miami will be few and far between. Miami may have to rely heavily on its defense stepping up big and creating turnovers that result in advantageous field position if they are to have a shot.

ESPN's Chris Mortensen has been told by sources that the NFL has reinstated Ricky Williams after his 18 month suspension.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3109760

The trade deadline is already past, so it will be interesting to see whether Miami decides to stash Ricky on the roster in order to try and trade him in the offseason, or whether they simply cut ties with him right away.

I am all for keeping him on the roster and trying to work out a trade after the season.