SB Nation User Blog: PhinPhan in MA

Numbers Can't Lie: Drafting an elite WR

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 16:09:07 -0000

Back in January, I wrote an article discussing how a wide receiver's height/body mass index (BMI) combination is a critical component to their chances of developing into an elite player. As it turns out, elite receivers come from four small intersections of height and BMI.

Here is a rough approximation of what those areas look like on a graph:

via static.fantasyfootballcalculator.com

The left-hand box is the Slight category (average height, low BMI). The bottom box is the Short category (short, average BMI). The right-hand box is the Thick category (average height, high BMI). And the top box is the Tall category (tall, average BMI).

Now, must of us will agree that WR is one of the Dolphins' most pressing areas of need, perhaps its biggest. The team seems to have a bunch of No. 2 or No. 3 guys with no elite player among the bunch. It would be a huge help for this offense to get one of those guys in the system by the time Chad Henne takes over at quarterback.

My goal is to take a look at some of the incoming WR prospects in the Draft this year and to find out which, if any, of them will be entering the league with the body build necessary to become that elite player we need.

I'm going to list the top 15 WR as ranked by Draft Countdown to see if any of them have an elite build.

Here goes:

	Height	Weight	BMI	Elite?	Category
Michael Crabtree	6-13/8	215	28.1	No
Jeremy Maclin	6-01/8	198	26.8	Yes	Short
Percy Harvin	5-111/8	192	26.7	Yes	Short
Darrius Heyward-Bey	6-15/8	210	27.2	No
Kenny Britt	6-27/8	218	27.3	Yes	Tall
Hakeem Nicks	6-03/4	212	28.2	Yes	Thick
Brian Robiskie	6-27/8	209	26.2	Yes	Slight
Derrick Williams	5-111/2	194	26.7	Yes	Short
Juaquin Iglesias	6-07/8	210	27.8	No
Louis Murphy	6-23/8	203	25.8	Yes	Slight
Ramses Barden	6-6	229	26.5	No
Brandon Tate	5-117/8	183	24.9	No
Brandon Gibson	6-03/8	210	28.2	Yes	Thick
Demetrius Byrd	6-01/4	199	26.8	No
Brooks Foster	6-01/2	211	28.2	Yes	Thick

So, what can we gather from this chart?

First off, there are more WRs with elite builds among the top of this year's draft class than I imagined. Of course, it must be remembered that about half of the WRs with elite builds that are drafted in the first four rounds still don't develop into elite players. You should also keep in mind that those players who currently have elite builds can subsequently fall out of those categories by gaining or losing weight. It's also possible for some players to move into an elite category by gaining or losing weight.

To use the line that I continually returned to in the comments of my first column on this subject: Having one of these four elite builds is necessary but not sufficient to become an elite receiver.

Second, even though Bill Parcells' track record would seem to preclude him from drafting a receiver in the first round, if the potentially-elite Percy Harvin is still sitting there you'd have to consider him.

Of course, with the seeming depth of elite-build WRs, the Dolphins could easily go in a different direction with the first-round pick and still have plenty of options to choose from when they get into rounds 2 and 3.

Brandon Gibson and Brooks Foster will still likely be on the board when the fourth round starts.

Another question the team will have to answer is whether it can be picky about exactly what kind of elite WR it drafts. One thing Miami's receiving corps lacks is size. It would be preferable to see them add one of the Tall or Thick guys listed above, but if they have a shot at Robiskie, Williams, or Murphy, they certainly can't overlook them.

Which of those players with an elite build would you like to see Miami draft this year?

(P.S.: On a completely non-football-related note, go buy the new Mastodon album, Crack the Skye, and thank me later.)

Numbers Can't Lie: Alone on an island, they'll drown

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 15:27:16 -0000

The job description of an NFL cornerback typically paints the picture of his working conditions as being alone on an island. Unfortunately for Miami, those islands are looking mighty vulnerable these days.

I agree with the team's decision to forego overspending to re-sign an old, creaky Andre' Goodman whose great half-season in 2008 bears no resemblance to the rest of his 6 ½ year career. However, the depth remaining at the position is paper thin, and apart from Will Allen, who will be 31 when the season begins, there aren't any proven players who can be counted on to start.

So how does the front office attempt to alleviate this problem? By signing Eric Green and bringing in Demarcus Faggins for a tryout.

I bashed the team's signing of Jake Grove two weeks ago, and I stand before you again (figuratively, of course) to say that signing Eric Green is a bad move. Signing Faggins would be mistake number three.

The fact of the matter is that the Dolphins need legitimate starting cornerbacks right now, not more dimebacks. They have one starter in Will Allen, but like I said, he's going to be 31 and his contract runs out after this season. I'm comfortable with Nate Jones as a nickel back, but he's not a starter. Jason Allen might be able to fill that role, but will the coaches ever give him an extended chance to actually do it? He can't be worse than Joey Thomas.

So let's assume that Will Allen has a lock on one of the starting positions and that Nate Jones and Jason Allen make the team as reserves. What then is Eric Green's role on this team? He's certainly not being paid $6 million over two years to be the fifth corner, and Jones proved he can man the nickel spot. So the front office must think Green can start opposite Will Allen.

Wrong.

Eric Green is terrible.

Let's go to the numbers (not all figures are available yet):

	Tgts	Success Rate	Rank	APaYd	Rank
'08 season	-	41%	58		53
'07 season	76	41%	71	8.3	59
'07 vs. #1 WR	36	40%		9.0
'07 vs. #2 WR	16	36%		8.2
'07 vs. Other WR	14	45%		9.1

To put it bluntly, those numbers are awful. To rank among the worst starting cornerbacks in the league two years in a row (when you are in the prime years of your career no less!) is a clear indication that you should not be starting anymore. Heck, judging by his performance against backup receivers in 2007, I question his viability at any level of the depth chart.

That kind of performance would only be magnified playing opposite a solid player like Will Allen, since he would be targeted relentlessly.

Now, I know most of you will simply shrug off the numbers and say, "Well, I'll wait until I see him myself." No need, as I've collected some eyewitness reports from Green's tenure in the desert.

From Pro Football Prospectus' 2008 season preview:

"The Cardinals' team numbers against wide receivers were bad because of Eric Green and Antrel Rolle, not [Roderick] Hood...This analysis doesn't even get to some of the other problems, like Green's inexcusable blunders. Last year, in the opener against San Francisco, Green had the opportunity to prevent a tying touchdown by falling on a fumble in the end zone. Instead, he tried to pick the ball up and missed it. The ball was recovered by Darrell Jackson for a 49ers score....They believe Rodgers-Cromartie has the talent to go straight from Division I-AA to the big leagues, but he needs to replace Green, not Hood, or Arizona will still have a big hole in the lineup at cornerback."

From Trevor Hoskins, a Cardinals game-charter for Football Outsiders:

"Eric Green is worthless, often burned easily even though he's fast, and struggles with any type of move. They should give up on trying to make him a cornerback, and switch him to safety as a last shot."

Yup...I'd say this signing falls into the "bad idea" pile along with Jake Grove.

But there are still other options available in free agency. Perhaps the team can amend for this lack of judgment by signing someone of value.

Again, Demarcus "Petey" Faggins is not that guy.

You know a player is bad when the team's fan base adopts his nickname as a general term for poor play. In Houston, a "Petey" became a synonym for "all the Texans secondary play, as a bunch of players who try hard, aren't terribly talented, give large cushions, can't stop key third down passes, or even basic routes and typically get burnt deep." Faggins exemplified these qualities to the fullest.

For the 2007 season, Faggins was targeted 58 times and had a success rate of 44% (65th in the league). In those 58 attempts, Faggins had a grand total of three pass defenses. Against #1 WRs, he averaged 10.4 yards per attempt and a 36% success rate. Oh yeah, he'll be 30 years old in June.

Once again, let me call in an eyewitness account to back up these dreadful numbers:

From ATexansBlog.com:

"If Faggins were good enough to be a starting CB2 in the NFL, such a proclamation would be ok. Unfortunately, Petey is not and, so, the statement is not.

Now, every single time I deride Demarcus, I get an email or a comment or whatever sticking up for him. Usually, buried in the defense is something to the effect of "but... he has so much HEART" or "he was injured last year." Both of these things are true. You know what else is true? THEY DON'T MATTER. Faggins is not talented enough to play CB2."

Ah, now that's a quote after my own heart.

Oh, and just for fun, check out this Timeline of Petey Faggins' Suckiosity. Here's an excerpt:

"January 15, 1997-Petey Faggins signs his letter of intent to play for Navarro Junior College. When asked why he didn't sign with an NCAA school, Faggins offers only that they "didn't know what they were missing." People assume he is joking, so they laugh. Faggins dies a little inside."

To sum all this up, Eric Green and Demarcus Faggins are abject failures as starting cornerbacks, and it makes little sense to bring them in for depth. At this point, the only real solution is to invest a high draft pick (or two) into replenishing the position.

Of course, that raises a problem since Bill Parcells is notoriously averse to drafting skill position players (particularly corners and receivers) high in the draft. And his success rate on those that he does select is low.

This should be nothing new. We all knew that Parcells was the guy when it came to evaluating linemen, and those are the positions that come first in rebuilding projects. He has addressed those positions heavily since his arrival, and the rebuilding has got off on the right foot.

But the team is now entering the stage of rebuilding where the lines are young and talented (except for Jake Grove) and some attention must be turned to the skill positions. However, this is not Parcells' strength, and I simply can't get behind a philosophy that thinks an entire roster's worth of CBs and WRs can simply be plucked from the ranks of undrafted college players and the scrap heap of failed free agents.

Now is the time to change course. Now is the time to spend our first day picks on those positions.

Otherwise, we're just going to end up with a secondary full of Peteys. And no one wants that.

Numbers Can't Lie: Is it too late to get a refund?

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:59:40 -0000

On Tuesday, March 3, 2009, Jeff Ireland and Bill Parcells made the first blatantly questionable personnel move during their tenure as leaders of this franchise by handing over a five-year, $29.5 million contract to Jake Grove.

Sure, the Ernest Wilford signing looks like a huge debacle right about now, and the Boomer Grigsby acquisition was a failure, and it looks like the team may have botched the whole "trade up in the draft to take Shawn Murphy" thing, but those moves were at least logically defendable at the time they were made.

Giving Jake Grove $14 million in guaranteed money to become the Dolphins' new starting center, however, is not.

Let us count the ways in which Grove is inferior to the man he is replacing:

1. Age

Jake Grove is 29 years old. Samson Satele is 24 years old.

Now, 29 is certainly not over the hill, but at that age, you're past the point of being a young prospect - what you see is what you get, at least until you reach the age of diminishing returns. In general, there is no magic discovery of some untapped wellspring of ability for players pushing 30. If they had any promise, they would have shown it by now. Unfortunately, as we will see, Grove has shown nothing worthwhile in his five seasons.

Samson Satele, on the other hand, is a mere two years into his NFL career, and has plenty of good developmental years ahead of him. He started off very strong in his rookie campaign only to see his play decline in his sophomore outing. Unlike Grove, however, Samson is still at the stage where he can be expected to overcome a down season and continue growing as a player.

2. Health

Health is a skill, just like throwing accurate passes and catching a football are. Some players are simply better are staying healthy than others, and this becomes obvious over time.

Jake Grove is not a healthy player. He appeared in 54 games for the Raiders from 2004-2008, out of a possible 80 games (67.5%). He only started 46 of those games (57.5%). He has only played a full season once in his career. There is no reason to expect that to change now.

Satele, on the other hand, is a perfect 33 for 33, having appeared in and started every single game of his career. In fact, after this past season, it came to light that he had played much of 2008 with a torn labrum in his shoulder - a pretty important injury for a center - yet he played through it. Isn't that the type of player Parcells supposedly clamors for? So for all the vague and hazy talk about how gritty and tough Grove is, it certainly doesn't show on the attendance sheet.

3. Cost

Every dollar spent on a player comes with an opportunity cost in that there is then one less dollar to spend somewhere else on the roster. So it makes sense to think that shelling out a guaranteed $14 million to a guy is going to substantially upgrade that position. I mean, it better right?

Well, setting aside the question of whether signing Grove actually does solve anything (it doesn't), let's compare how much each player is costing this team.

Jake Grove will cost the team at least $14 million, and is signed for five years. His contract is scheduled to pay him an average of $5.9 million each season for its duration.

Samson Satele is practically free in comparison. He is what baseball fans would call cost-controlled. In other words, he is still on his rookie contract which was determined largely by draft order and which pays him relatively little, and thus the return on the investment is far greater. Satele is under contract for two more seasons and over that time is scheduled to make a little over $1 million.

Is Jake Grove that exponentially better than Satele, so much as 14 times better? (I can't believe I just asked such a ridiculously absurd question.)

To put it simply, Jake Grove's contract will become, if it isn't already, an albatross for this team (in fact, I think Albatross or Millstone might become my nickname for Grove). Even if you think Grove is an upgrade over Satele, there is no way to justify paying him that much more. And if you think Grove is a downgrade from Satele, well...then it just makes you sad to think how much money this team just threw down the drain.

To make matters worse, I doubt there was a huge market for Grove's services. I'm sure if the Dolphins waited they could have gotten him cheaper.

4. Performance

Ah, performance, the thing that matters above all else.

As always, let's look to the Football Outsider stats to see what they show. Judging by the contract Grove received, you'd expect him to be a dominant player, particularly in run blocking, since that is the perceived area of weakness in Satele's game.

	Year	GS	ALY	Rank	Penalties	Sacks
Jake Grove	2008	12	3.64	30	3	2.5
	2007	2	4.02	20	2	0.5
	2006	16	3.87	28	6	7.5
	2005	8	4.13	16	3	1.5
	2004	8	4.10	21	4	0.5

Samson Satele	2008	16	4.05	23	4	4.5
	2007	16	3.86	24	2	2

Satele, surprisingly, actually statistically improved in the running game this season. Again, he did this while playing with a torn labrum in his shoulder for much of the season. If he statistically improved under those conditions, why the heck would you not want to see how much more he can improve in year three with a clean bill of health?

Now look at Grove, who is supposedly some fierce warrior of a player who dominates the run game. Ha, that's quite the myth isn't it?

Grove has never ranked better than 16th in ALY, and the two seasons in which he started at least 12 games he finished 28th and 30th in the NFL. In fact, the one season in which he did manage to start every game (2006) was probably his worst season. He is a terrible run-blocker, and yet he is supposed to magically upgrade Miami's offensive line? Oh yeah, and he'll be transitioning from a zone-blocking scheme back to a conventional man block system. Well, it doesn't really matter since he sucks at both. He played zone in 2008 and man before that, so he's proven to be equally inept at both.

Look, I can only say Jake Grove sucks in so many ways. So let me recruit some help. This quote comes from Pro Football Prospectus' 2008 season preview for the Raiders' offensive line:

"The Raiders are still on the road back from the nightmare of 2006, one of the worst offensive line performances in NFL history. That line ruined careers...If injuries strike the line, they could return to the nightmare of 2006, which features names such as Jake Grove and Paul McQuistan."

Suffice it to say, the nightmare returned in Oakland, and Grove certainly played his part.

To top everything off with a big crappy cherry, Grove has the dubious distinction of being named to Scramble for the Ball's All-Keep Choppin' Wood team for the 2008 season. The All-KCW team sets out to pick the very worst players at each position for the season. And guess who "won" the center award? Here's what they had to say about Grove:

"Penalty and sack numbers for centers all look pretty similar. Grove's three penalties and 2.5 sacks allowed don't really jump out at you -- until you realize he started only 12 games. The Raiders were also 30th in rushing up the middle."

It's always great when you switch out a promising youngster for one of the worst players at his position.

By now you all get my point that this was a horrible decision by Ireland and Parcells. There simply is no other way to slice it. There is no area in which Jake Grove is a better player than Samson Satele. Satele is younger, healthier, costs much less, and is statistically better.

I'm sick of hearing people trying to defend this move, and every other move this team makes, by parroting some garbage about how because Parcells decided it, it must be right. Yeah, because Bill Parcells has never made a bad decision in his life. If I recall, the Dolphins still face the decision of losing money just to cut ties with Ernest Wilford.

I'll be the first to agree that Parcells has set this franchise on the right course, and most of his moves look great right now. But as fans, we don't have to, and shouldn't, stop critically assessing every move the team makes and simply submit to the Higher Power that is Parcells.

People make mistakes. Parcells and Ireland already have. They will make more. You are no less of a fan if you openly choose to disagree with a move they make. That doesn't make you an idiot for doing so. People need to stop apologizing for (gasp!) even suggesting that the wrong decisions were made. Why are we tiptoeing around, trying to convince ourselves that every move is a great one, when one comes along like this one and it is clearly not a great move? You don't need to call every critical idea a "just stirring the pot" comment. If the proof is staring you in the face and telling you otherwise, then stand up behind your conviction that the Almighty Parcells made a goof.

That's what I'm doing right now. And hopefully more of you will too.

(P.S. Enough with the Jake Grove scouting reports from his draft. He's 29 years old now. That no longer applies. His "mean streak" clearly never carried over into real NFL production.)

Numbers Can't Lie: Speed Scores

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 15:39:43 -0000

With the Scouting Combine wrapping up earlier this week, I had planned to use the running backs' 40-yard dash data to introduce some of you to a really useful metric developed last year by the guys at Football Outsiders known as Speed Score.

Well, they ended up beating me to the punch.

Nevertheless, their article helps me because now I don't have to go through all the Combine data and do the calculations myself. And of course, I'll be tailoring the conclusions to a Dolphins' perspective.

So without further ado, let me introduce the 40-Yard Speed Score.

So many people drool over the numbers that players generate at the Scouting Combine every year, but no one really ever bothered to go back and check just how useful the different drills are when it comes to projecting success at the NFL level.

That is, until FO came along and whipped out their...calculators.

Thus far, they've been able to find strong correlations between certain statistics and the quarterback, wide receiver and running back positions.

We've talked before on this site about the WR numbers - that is, their height/BMI combinations. And you may have run across the Lewin Career Forecast as well (not usually credited as such, but oh well, right?), when it comes to projecting QBs. This study found that when it comes to QBs taken in the first two rounds of the Draft, only completion percentage and games started matter in terms of projecting their success in the NFL.

For running backs, FO found that of all the raw data compiled at the combine, the vertical jump and the 40-yard dash are the only numbers that bear a strong correlation to performance. You might as well throw out the bench press, three-cone drill, and Wonderlic test because they are virtually useless.

However, while conducting their research, they invented a new metric which bears an even greater correlation to performance than the 40-yard dash itself, and this is the 40-Yard Speed Score.

Here is the formula for this metric: (WEIGHT * 200)/(40 TIME^4)

What the Speed Score does is more accurately reflect a player's true speed, by taking into account the body frame being propelled forward. It's essentially a 40 time adjusted for weight and placed on a 100-point scale.

This metric helps to separate players like Brandon Jacobs (4.56 seconds, 267 lbs.) from Ahmad Bradshaw (4.55, 198 lbs.). Even though they can both traverse 40-yards in the same time, Jacobs' speed is much more useful because of the power behind it. That is the essence of Speed Score. In general, any speed score below 100 is poor, while the greater one's score is over 100, the better.

So let's take a look at the Speed Scores for this year's running backs:

Player	School	40 Time	Weight	Speed Score
Andre Brown	North Carolina State	4.49	224	110.2
Cedric Peerman	Virginia	4.45	216	110.2
Ian Johnson	Boise State	4.46	212	107.2
Javarris Williams	Tennessee State	4.52	223	106.9
Beanie Wells	Ohio State	4.59	235	105.9
Kory Sheets	Purdue	4.47	208	104.2
Donald Brown	Connecticut	4.51	210	101.5
Rashad Jennings	Liberty	4.64	231	99.7
Shonn Greene	Iowa	4.63	227	98.8
Mike Goodson	Texas A&M	4.54	208	97.9
Chris Ogbannaya	Texas	4.61	220	97.4
Marlon Lucky	Nebraska	4.59	216	97.3
Knowshon Moreno	Georgia	4.60	217	96.9
James Davis	Clemson	4.61	218	96.5
Glen Coffee	Alabama	4.58	209	95.0
Jeremiah Johnson	Oregon	4.61	209	92.5
Bernard Scott	Abilene Christian	4.56	200	92.5
Anthony Kimble	Stanford	4.66	216	91.6
Javon Ringer	Michigan State	4.60	205	91.6
Brandon Ore	West Liberty State	4.67	214	90.0
Tyrell Sutton	Northwestern	4.66	211	89.5
Gartrell Johnson	Colorado State	4.71	219	89.0
Kahlil Bell	UCLA	4.68	212	88.4

*Source (FO.com)

First off, let me say that I am against drafting running backs early, and while I am pretty content with Miami's running back situation right now, it's clear that after this season they may need to have a capable backup plan in place. After all, some serious decisions will have to be made soon with regards to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams' futures with the team.

So if Miami does indeed intend to select a running back in this year's draft, who does Speed Score suggest as a potential late-round sleeper? (Note: Jalen Parmele put up a terrific Speed Score of 112.2 last season, which was one reason I was sorry to see him leave.)

Well, the pickings overall are slim. This draft is really thin at RB it would seem, with only 7 players posting scores better than 100.

Chris Wells and Donald Brown are immediately out of the picture for Miami since they will be gone on the first day. Andre Brown will also probably be gone by the fourth round.

Ian Johnson, Javarris Williams, Kory Sheets, and Cedric Peerman could all be worth a look in the later rounds. Peerman is particularly intriguing because most draft "experts" predict him going in the sixth or seventh round or even not getting drafted at all. But if one of those four guys is sitting there when Miami is picking in the seventh-round, I would not mind seeing them take one of them.

So that's speed score in a nutshell for you. It's definitely the best number to keep in mind when thinking about running backs on draft day. It's certainly not foolproof (Brian Westbrook only scored 91.71) but its predictive ability is far more hit than miss.

(For those of you interested, Ronnie Brown scored a tremendous 121.0. Carnell Williams scored a 112.7, and Cedric Benson scored a 97.5.)

Numbers Can't Lie: Keeping Carey

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 16:30:54 -0000

There's been some good discussion around the site the last few days regarding Vernon Carey's impending free agency. I'd like to flesh that out a bit more by looking at exactly what we have in Carey as compared to our options in free agency and the draft.

I think Carey has taken some unjustified flak from some writers I've seen on the web for not being as visually dominant as they believe he should be. They've watched the tape and they've concluded that Vernon simply doesn't do a good enough job blowing his man off the ball or generally acting like the mauler his frame and physical abilities would presuppose him to be. And those observations are certainly correct on more plays than I'd like, but his inability to visually wow us with his run blocking should not cloud the fact that he is an upper echelon right tackle in this league, and our lack of rushing success this season is much more a factor of the middle three linemen than the bookends.

What We Have in Vernon

Here's what the numbers say about Carey. I'm excluding his rookie season since Dave Wannstedt inexplicably chose to go with John St. Clair over Carey for much of that year.

	GS	ALY	Rank	Sack	Rate
2005 (RT)	14	4.21	15	3	0.5%
2006 (RT)	16	4.76	2	5.5	0.9%
2007 (LT)	16	5.05	4	3	0.5%
2008 (RT)	16	4.51	9	4.5	0.9%

As far as perspective goes when it comes to sack rates (sacks allowed divided by total passes), in general, anything over 1% is not good. Both Carey's raw allowed sack totals and his sack rate show him to be a perfectly adequate pass protector. He isn't killing this team out on the end.

The run-blocking is what I'm more interested in, partly because that's where Carey has been most criticized, but also because this team needs to really improve its power running game.

So how does he stack up in that department? Well, the numbers show that he is a top-shelf run-blocking tackle, having always placed in the top half of the league in terms of Adjusted Line Yards and only once falling outside of the top ten. Suffice to say, he may not look dominant when he's grinding it out in the running game, but the production that the running game has found behind him has certainly been outstanding. And that's what's most important to me.

The other important thing to garner from those numbers? This team will be hard pressed to find another starting tackle with Carey's durability. He's played in every game over the past four seasons and started all but two of them. It's easy to take for granted the kind of security we have with Carey locked in as one of our starters.

Line cohesion is another aspect of offensive line play that I think goes overlooked far too often. There certainly is something to be said for keeping a similar group of guys together from year to year rather than constantly switching players year in and year out.

What We Have for Options

So if the front office ultimately decides against using the franchise tag on Vernon and can't agree to a long-term contract, what options are available?

The current roster boasts three backups who can play right tackle - Nate Garner, Brandon Frye, and Ikechuku Ndukwe. I don't know about you, but I'll pass on going into training camp with one of those guys as the starting RT.

Free agency presents the most options. I'm going to use Scout.com's free agent rankings in order to cut down the list to those players who are more or less of Carey's caliber or better. These rankings are just one organization's opinions, but for the simple purposes of this article, they do a fine job.

They have Carey listed as a three star free agent, so I'll be looking at any other player who is three stars or better. That leaves us with 9 players: Jordan Gross, Marvel Smith, Mark Tauscher, Jon Runyan, Tra Thomas, Stacy Andrews, Khalif Barnes, Willie Colon, and Tyson Clabo.

Right off the bat, I'm scratching Clabo and Colon off the list, as they are restricted free agents and would require the investment of both high draft picks and a hefty contract. Gone too are Runyan and Thomas for being 35 and 34 years old respectively. This team doesn't need a broken down player on his last legs to come in on a sizeable contract and be little more than a stopgap. We need to find long term solutions now, not a few years from now.

As for Tauscher, he's 31 years old and trying to come back from an ACL tear that happened very late in the season. Likewise, Marvel Smith is 30 years old and coming off a season in which he appeared in a mere five games due to serious back problems. Cross both of those guys off my list. Stacy Andrews is also trying to make his way back from a torn ACL suffered late in December. However, he's still only 27 years old and has a lot of potential.

So that ultimately leaves three viable options in free agency that could take over as the starting RT - Jordan Gross, Stacy Andrews, and Khalif Barnes.

Omar Kelly reported that Carey is looking for a deal worth more than $20 million. I'm just throwing numbers out there, but I think something in the range of 4 years/$22-25 million would be reasonable for Carey. That averages out to between $5.5-6 million a year. While Jordan Gross is the best tackle on the market and would be an upgrade over Carey, he made $7.5 million this past season. He's likely going to want at least that yearly rate from his new team. Is he that much better than Carey, that the team should shell out another ~$8 million over the next four years? I'm not convinced that it would be worth it.

Stacy Andrews has the obvious injury issue, but he is intriguing because he is certainly going to come at a sharply reduced price. If Miami decided to take a flyer on him, they would be wise to use one of their first day draft picks on a player who could step in at RT if Andrews' recovery stalled. A combo player like Duke Robinson would be a perfect match in that scenario, as he can play both guard and tackle, so if Andrews fully recovered, Robinson would still be able to push for a starting job on the interior.

As for Barnes, well, he doesn't excite me all that much. He'll probably be cheaper than Carey, but as they say, you get what you pay for. He's very inconsistent and the coaching staff in Jacksonville never seemed all that happy with him. Miami could do worse in free agency than getting Barnes, but they have the ability to avoid that scenario altogether simply by re-signing Vernon.

Finally, there's the draft. I'm not even going to get into specific players here (other than my Andrews/Robinson contingency plan) because using a first-day pick to supplant Carey makes little sense to me at this moment. With Carey, the RT position is set in stone. He's young, he's well above average, he starts every game, and he adds cohesion to the line. To get all that, Miami will need to make an investment of cash only (albeit a hefty chunk of it, but deserved). Choosing not to re-sign him simply creates a huge hole, to be added to several other huge holes on the roster requiring immediate attention. Miami can't fix its WR hole by re-signing a stud player. Likewise, Miami can't fix its need for a playmaking inside linebacker by re-signing Channing Crowder. These holes require the investment of draft picks.

This team already has very specific needs to address with its first three picks in the draft. Trying to replace Carey through the draft just creates one more, thus ensuring that one less need can be met with one of those first three picks.

Conclusion

While it is clear that there are better options available than Vernon Carey when it comes strictly to projected performance in the 2009 season, there are so many other factors weighing in that seem to push Carey forward as the best option available.

We need to keep in mind age, durability, fiscal demands, and draft pick investments as well. When all of that is taken into account, it's hard to see why Miami would choose to let Carey go.

Numbers Can't Lie: Becoming At Peace With Numbers

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 16:15:31 -0000

This week, I'm going to eschew the inclusion of lots of numbers or tables in my column. (Cue the loud cheers from many of you.)

However, I'm doing this in order to talk to you all about...numbers and tables and statistics. (Cue the ranting and raving from those same people.)

You see, most of you probably noticed the uproar that broke out here about a week or so ago regarding the influx of statistical discussion and analysis on this site. To be honest, I've been noticing the backlash ever since I started my weekly column at The Phinsider. While I've gotten several encouraging responses letting me know that there is a definite population of the readership here that enjoys and wants to see more statistical-based analysis, there has been just as many of you that are, for whatever reason, infuriated by its recent inclusion.

And I'm not sure why that is.

After all, this is a Miami Dolphins fan site - one that is dedicated to more than just following the news aspect of the team. The writers for this site, particularly those chosen to be regular front-page posters/columnists, strive to analyze what the news actually means and present it in an enjoyable and informative manner. A majority of that analysis comes in the form of subjective/scouting-based opinion. But confining ourselves solely to that type of analysis leaves a veritable treasure trove of information and avenues of discussion completely in the dark. One would think that, as fans, we would all be at least receptive to the possibility of thinking about the team we are passionate about in a new manner.

I don't expect everyone to agree with the conclusions that arise from some of the statistical studies. But to hear that some members of the site refuse to read these articles or visit the site as often as they used to because of this new content is, quite frankly, troubling and indicative of a more widespread close-mindedness among many of the readers here.

To some degree and on some level, that apprehension is understandable. By and large, football statistics have remained relatively static since the NFL was created. Anyone who grew up watching football is inherently comfortable when it comes to your run of the mill statistics like rushing yards and forced fumbles. To a lot of people, I'm sure many of these new metrics or concepts seem like anathema and that they go against everything they thought they knew about the game of football. I see this as a basic aversion to change, and the general notion that the way things are must be the best way for them to be.

But that's just a foolish proposition. The way we think about things should evolve and grow with us. It may be more comfortable to always think about football the way we did when we first were introduced to it, but for those willing to set aside comfort for a time, there is so much more depth to be found by expanding the ways in which we are willing to examine the game.

I'm not writing this column to try to turn everyone here into a stat-geek like me. The discussions that we can have amongst each other when we have differing opinions are one of the great attributes of this site. But that is near impossible to do when people complain about the presence of the content or simply hijack the post and turn it into a two-person conversation that has nothing to do with the original entry, which happens far too often I've noticed. Instead of complaining about why something was written, tell the author why you disagree and back up your criticism with some evidence or some line of reasoning. Telling someone that their writing is useless because numbers and tables can't express what it means to love a team is childish and does absolutely nothing to further the conversation.

In case you were unaware, loving numbers and statistical analysis in no way makes you any less of a fan. Being critical of a player or unit because of what the hard evidence shows does not mean we are against the team. The reason people like GatorPhan and myself go through the effort to organize these numbers is because of how much we love the Dolphins! We love them so much we want to know as much as we possibly can about them. We are not immune to the emotions of fandom simply because we enjoy numbers, but that doesn't prevent us from trying to gain some objective truths about the team at the same time.

In my humble opinion, a player's performance cannot solely be judged simply by watching it. Obviously, a lot of people here feel that viewing the game on TV is all they need to form the best evaluations of the players they love. While I deeply respect and appreciate that viewpoint, I do not agree with it. In the absolutely amazing book Moneyball (I can't recommend it enough) Bill James pointed out that in baseball, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter (essentially the difference between a good hitter and an average hitter) is virtually undetectable through viewing the games. The difference comes down to one hit every two weeks. Even if you watched every single at-bat of every player, you'd be hard pressed to notice that kind of difference without a statistic telling you.

And if you can't tell everything accurately just from watching the games, it really helps to start counting things and analyzing the objective data.

For example, let's talk about Nnamdi Asomugha. Before this offseason, I'm willing to bet a large section of NFL fans had no idea who this player was despite his being the overwhelmingly best cornerback in the league for at least two years running. Now that he is set to potentially become a free agent, however, everyone seems to know who he is and that he is an amazing talent. But how can anyone possibly know that unless they think about him statistically?

First of all, he plays in Oakland, so it's fair to say not many of us have seen him play on a week-to-week basis. Yet, everyone here who vehemently opposes statistics will tell you that he is a great CB. My question to those people is how do you know that? Is it because the local columnists and reporters tell you that he is great? Well how do they know? I, for one, would never simply sit back and accept who a local reporter tells me is good and who isn't because I don't know how they are arriving at their judgments.

Second, as with most CBs, even if you were to watch a Raiders game on TV, Asomugha will almost never be on the screen when he's in coverage. So you can't really watch him even if you want to. So again, I ask, how can you be sure that he is so good? You certainly can't do it by looking at his simple statistics like tackles and interceptions because any elite CB will never be thrown at enough to compile large numbers of either. Asomugha compiled 40 tackles and one interception in 2008. Compare that to Jason Allen's 36 tackles and one interception in far less playing time and one naïve observer may conclude that these players are roughly equal in ability.

No, the only true way to understand how great of a player Asomugha is is to look at less common statistics like charted passes, yards per pass, and success rate. Charted passes is quite a simple statistic, yet because it is new and not something most people are accustomed to thinking about, it is often cast aside. But Asomugha was targeted a mere 26 times for the entire season. That is far and away the fewest number of targets for any starting CB. His success rate on passes thrown against him was likewise stellar, placing him in the top 5 in the league.

Considering statistics as easy as charted passes and success rate is the only way to separate the performance of Asomugha from Allen. You may say that you understood that difference already from reading about how Asomugha completely shuts down one half of the field. Well, those statistics I've mentioned are merely the concrete evidence that backs up those statements.

All I'm trying to get across in this column is that the presence of stats-based articles shouldn't rile everyone up on this site. This site has a lot of intelligent and civil fans of the Dolphins who should be able to discuss and disagree with one another on any variety of football-related subjects. It would be a shame if so many of the readers here simply continued to ignore or belittle those community members trying only to further the understanding and enjoyment of the team.

Numbers in football aren't something to be afraid of. As the Asomugha example shows, most of us already base our judgments of players on statistics, even if we don't know it. Let's all open up and be a little more receptive of one another from now on, even when it might entail rethinking our own individual approaches to the game. Who knows, we just may end up learning something from one another.

Numbers Can't Lie: Top 5 Prospects List

PhinPhan in MA — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:39:49 -0000

I'm getting this column up a day early this week because I'll be busy skiing during my usual posting day on Thursday.

One of the aspects of baseball that I think is missing to some extent from the NFL is any sort of true developmental league. Obviously, the long player progression timeline in baseball makes minor-league teams an essential. In football, rookies are generally older and more prepared to play then their baseball counterparts. But there still exists a section of young, untested players in the NFL that should be considered prospects.

The only difference between a football prospect and a baseball prospect is that the football prospect is generally stuck behind a player or two on the depth chart and is only able to show their abilities in practice or in limited on-field opportunities. In baseball, minor leaguers get to play every day down on the farm as they work their way up through the system until they reach the big league club.

In both sports, the value of obtaining great prospects is key to the long term success of the team. Obviously, these are young players and thus they will be more likely to help the team in the future than some past-his-prime free agent. Second, they are cost-controlled in the sense that they are usually on their rookie contract or some very modest free agent deal. Having players like this rise to become prominent role players or even enter the starting lineup is the basis of constructing a great team because of how much salary relief it provides. Think of the production that a player like Channing Crowder or Davone Bess has provided this team. Then consider that those guys cost the team a combined $1.31 million this season. The top free agents we signed at each position, Reggie Torbor and Ernest Wilford, on the other hand, cost the team $12.11 million in 2008.

A dollar in the primary free agent market simply cannot come close to the value of a dollar in the draft or in what I'll call the "dented cans bin" (aka undrafted free agents, waiver wire pickups, AFL/CFL signings).

That is where true value comes from, and as Crowder and Bess have shown, it's where the price of purchase is only pennies on the dollar compared to their actual worth.

With all that being said, I think now is a prime time to look at the Dolphins roster and see what kind of prospects we have to keep an eye on.

To be considered for this list, a player must meet the following criteria (borrowed from PFP's definition of a prospect):

Drafted or signed in 2006 or later
Drafted no earlier than round three
Less than five career games started
Still on a free agent contract or their original contract

The fourth rule is there to rule out players like Patrick Cobbs. Once you sign an extension with the team, you can't be considered a prospect anymore since you've obviously proven yourself at that point.

So without further ado, I present to you the first Dolphins Top 5 Prospect List:

5. S Tyrone Culver

It's clear that the coaching staff likes Culver since he basically assumed the role of the extra defender in most dime packages and some nickel packages by the end of the year, passing guys like Joey Thomas and Jason Allen on the depth chart. He made the most of his limited playing time as well, recording 35 tackles, 3 passes defensed and 1 interception. Even though he was released once during the season, he was brought back the very next week. He played a big role on special teams too, with 9 tackles.

Given the paucity of quality safeties currently on the team and the fact that one or both of last year's starters (Bell and Hill) may not be brought back, Culver is looking at a significant increase in playing time. That increased opportunity may be all he needs.

4. G/C Andy Alleman

Alleman was originally a third-round draft choice of the Saints in 2007, but when he was released in the final roster cut-downs this offseason, Miami jumped on the chance to submit a waiver claim for him. He started seeing game action quite quickly, when it became obvious that Ikechuku Ndukwe was struggling mightily to hold down the right guard position by himself. So a rotation of Ndukwe and Alleman was instituted, gradually exposing Alleman to increased game snaps. When Justin Smiley was lost for the season in week 13, Alleman had proven enough that he took over the left guard spot and started there for the rest of the year, even while the coaches experimented with playing Samson Satele at right guard while Al Johnson played center.

Given his rapid ascendency this season, it's still quite amazing to think how raw he is as an offensive lineman. [Check out this pre-draft story on Alleman to learn a little more about him.] It's important to remember that Alleman started off his college career as a defensive end at Pitt before switching to defensive tackle. He then transferred to Akron where he began the conversion to guard. He has only been playing guard for three years really, and even when he came to Miami, the coaching staff had him playing a lot of center.

With another offseason to learn all the intricacies of his new position, I feel that Alleman will be an important member of this offensive line in the future. Not necessarily as a starter, mind you, but as a swing guard who can play either position in a pinch and who can reliably be called on to start if injuries strike again.

3. WR Brandon London

Another waiver wire find by Parcells and Ireland, London is a valuable prospect primarily for his size. Quite frankly, Miami has its share of small receivers already (Ginn, Bess, Camarillo) and desperately needs a big-bodied complementary receiver. Ernest Wilford was a gigantic bust and nobody really sees him sticking around next year. London saw playing time over Wilford throughout the season largely because London could play special teams. He finished with 6 special teams tackles.

But it's his promise as a receiver that gets him on this list. I talked a few weeks ago about how important a WRs' height/BMI combo is to his eventual performance ceiling, and London has the type of frame that could potentially put him into one of the four elite categories (tall). He's currently listed as 6'4", 210 lbs. But he entered the draft at 215 lbs., and his exact height was given as 6044 (6 feet, four and four-tenths inches). If he could get his weight up to about 221 or 222, he would fall into the "tall" category of elite receiver. He's a bit of a bean-pole at the moment, so putting on that much extra weight may not work for him, but it's something to try this offseason.

Other coaches have raved about his potential, and if he can tap into all of it, he just may become the best WR on this team. [Note: He still hasn't signed that new contract yet, so he's still eligible for this list.]

2. OLB Cameron Wake

Signing Wake from the CFL was akin to a baseball team signing a dominant player from one of the Dominican or Japanese leagues. The talent level he faced up there obviously doesn't compare to what he'll see in the NFL, but dominance is dominance, and I'm interested in any young player who has already achieved that kind of production on a professional level. He may not be any good against the run, but he's a top prospect because of his singular ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

With Miami, he will have to transition to outside linebacker, but his role will be almost entirely to rush the QB. Charlie Anderson was pretty bad this year, and it's hard to believe Wake can't at least match what he did on the field. He has a lot to prove if he wants to start in the future, but he has the potential to be this team's next David Bowens, which isn't too shabby.

1. G Donald Thomas

There's really not much at all to go on when it comes to Donald Thomas, but his potential upside is tremendous. Thomas is similar to Alleman, in that they are both still extremely raw and adjusting to new positions. But Thomas is unique in that he is so new to the game of football itself, not just his position. Thomas walked on at UCONN (having never played before) and began his career as a defensive tackle and end. He then switched to tight end before finally settling in as a guard. Taken in the sixth-round last year, nobody really expected Thomas to be the starting right guard by day one, but a lack of better alternatives and Thomas' great training camp offered him a golden opportunity.

Of course, he only ended up playing in that one game, before being placed on Injured Reserve. But the reviews from coaches, teammates, and even opposing players have already been amazing. They talk of the amount of force he hits his man with and how "heavy" his blocks feel. That's definitely an encouraging sign for someone so young and raw and for a line that needs a lot of work run-blocking. He even made Gil Brandt's midseason all-rookie team.

Of course, it will be a question if Thomas can return to full strength in time for training camp and if he can get right back on track where he left off. It's also a fair question to ask whether his ultra-small sample size of game time last year was a fluke or the real deal. I have him as this team's best prospect for a reason - I think he's the real deal.

So that's my list of Miami's top 5 prospects. What do you think of it and how would your list look?

Numbers Can't Lie: Judging Our Community Projections (Offense Edition)

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 16:17:14 -0000

This column is the second half of my look back at the community projections that were compiled here before this season began. Last week, I looked at the defensive projections. This week, I'll be taking a look at the three offensive players that were chosen to perform projections on (Ted Ginn was also done, but I've already discussed him in a previous column.)

In general, the community's projections for the defensive players were all overly optimistic. It will be interesting to see if that is the case with the offensive players as well.

In addition to the Phinsider projections and the actual performances, I'll be including the KUBIAK projections from Pro Football Prospectus 2008.

Let's jump right into it. First up is Chad Pennington:

	G	Comp	Att	C%	Yds	TD	Int	YPA	Rt	DVOA
Community	14	213	328	64.6	2510	17	10	7.65	92.4	-
KUBIAK	16	278	445	62.6	2876	21	16	6.46	81.8	-15.6%
Actual	16	321	476	67.4	3653	19	7	7.67	97.4	25.6%

First off, it must be noted that the KUBIAK projections were published while Pennington was still a New York Jet. Since this projection system is based on a model that takes into account the experience of the player's projected offensive line, the weapons around him, and the strength of schedule that he will be facing, it makes sense to just toss those numbers out from the get-go. Of course, had Pennington been with Miami before the numbers went to press, they likely would have been even a little bit lower. The bottom line is that KUBIAK saw Pennington declining this season.

Looking at the community's numbers, it's obvious that no one saw this type of season coming from Pennington. This was undoubtedly the best season in his career. The community certainly didn't envision this team passing as much as it did (it projected almost the same number of attempted passes as those actually completed), and that's probably due to an unrealistic expectation for how much of a workload Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could shoulder (see below). The community did however nail the yards per attempt figure and came pretty close on the QB rating.

Pennington's season offers a good example of something that I think will be a significant challenge next year. Think of how many players had career years in 2008. For young players like Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, and Matt Roth that is great because it is expected that young players will consistently trend upward in their first few years. Good young prospects should generally stack career years on top of one another until they reach their peak. But what happens when an older player suddenly has a career year? I'm thinking of guys like Pennington, Andre' Goodman, and Joey Porter.

The years that those players had were so out of the ordinary with their prior performances that it is simply misguided to expect anything similar in 2009. I'm not saying that players can't have late-career reawakenings, but is that slim hope where we want to place our aspirations for the future? I certainly don't. And while I expect Pennington to play at a high level again next year, I'm not predicting that he'll come anywhere close to what he did this season.

A lot of people are going to be upset if they go into 2009 expecting guys like Goodman and Porter to build on career years achieved in age 30+ seasons.

But that's enough about that for now. Up next is Ronnie Brown:

	G	Runs	Yds	Yd/R	TD	Run DVOA	Rec	Yds	Yd/C	TD	Rec DVOA	Fum
Community	14	248	999	4.0	9	-	31	390	12.6	2	-	2
KUBIAK	16	256	1150	4.5	6	1.0%	47	358	7.6	0	6.4%	-
Actual	16	214	916	4.3	10	4.8%	33	254	7.7	0	11.5%	1

The funny thing about the KUBIAK projection is that it actually took Brown's ACL injury into account quite heavily, and still managed to overshoot his carry and yardage totals by quite a bit. When it came to DVOA, however, it was pretty spot-on. And while it also overestimated how many receptions Brown would make, it correctly called how many yards per catch he would average, along with being shut out of the end zone in the passing game.

When looking at the community projections, keep in mind that the participants anticipated Brown playing in two fewer games than he actually did, so the lower counting stats would actually be even farther apart had they actually predicted him to play an entire season. The community saw Brown getting 18 carries a game. In my estimation, that was a pipedream. But some people can't get past the idea that simply because a player is back on the field after a terrible injury and appears to be doing fine that he actually is still rehabbing and won't be 100% until much later down the road. I guarantee you, Ronnie was not 100% this year. And no one should have expected him to be.

Finally, we have Ricky Williams:

	G	Runs	Yds	Yd/R	TD	Run DVOA	Rec	Yds	Yd/C	TD	Rec DVOA	Fum
Community	15	248	1065	4.3	6	-	34	299	8.8	2	-	3
KUBIAK	16	100	411	4.1	2	-6.6%	14	104	7.3	0	-4.4%	-
Actual	16	160	659	4.1	4	-4.0%	29	219	7.6	1	-9.7%	5

Wow. Talk about two extremes. The KUBIAK projections were definitely sour on Ricky Williams, but they still came very close to predicting all of his rate states. They clearly just didn't anticipate him getting the ball so much.

The community projections on the other hand overshot his actual production in every single category - most noticeably in his carries and rushing yards. The community projected Ricky and Ronnie to both run 248 times, for a combined total of 496 carries solely between the top two backs. The entire team only had 448 carries, and that's including QB kneel downs. So there was an obvious overestimation here of both Ricky's role in the offense and his abilities. In fact, Ricky was projected to produce more on the ground than Ronnie.

I think that doing theses look-backs at the community projections are a good lesson for heading into the offseason and next year. As fans, most of the time we far overvalue our own players and end up expecting impractical amounts of production from them. Try to keep that in mind for when we do these projections again this summer.

As always, let me know if you have any suggestions for column ideas you'd like me to look into in the future.

Numbers Can't Lie: Judging Our Community Projections (Defense Edition)

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 16:02:24 -0000

Last week, in discussing the misguided expectations that some of us have for Ted Ginn, I looked at The Phinsider community projections that were done before this season began.

Generally, when taking the pulse of any team, the aggregated opinions of that team's fan base will almost assuredly tip the scales heavily in the optimistic direction. It's natural for fans to think more highly of their team's players than reality might dictate.

Ginn's projections were a perfect example of this "homer-ism," if you will. So I wanted to go back and look at the other community projections that were done before this season and judge their accuracy.

First up is Channing Crowder. Here is how his projected numbers compare to his actual numbers:

	Tkl	Sck	TFL	FF	INT	PD
Projected	100	2.5	7	2	1	5
Actual	113	0	3.5	1	0	6

The most obvious discrepancy in the numbers is that the community thinks Crowder is more of a playmaker than he really is, which is difficult to say when you are projecting a mere 2.5 sacks and 1 interception, and when that player is expected to play on almost every defensive snap.

Well, Crowder did play on almost every defensive snap, and it should be crystal clear to everyone at this point that he is simply not a playmaker. Expecting 2.5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and a pick (which he still has not gotten in four years) was another example of aiming too high. I think some of this inflation has to do with a fan's fear of projecting a player to make absolutely no plays. They reason, "He's due to get a pick this season," or some other nonsense. No, if a player is not a playmaker, they don't magically luck into 2.5 sacks or 7 TFLs.

Still, in regards to tackles, forced fumbles and passes defensed, this projection was pretty accurate.

Next is Joey Porter:

	Tkl	Sck	TFL	FF	INT	PD
Projected	77	8	10	3	2	6
Actual	47	17.5	3	4	0	1

Wow. Now that's what I call disconnect.

I think this disconnect is warranted, however. To put it bluntly, Joey Porter became extremely one-dimensional this season, exponentially more so. The advanced metrics for run defense haven't been printed yet, but it's obvious from watching the games and looking at these stats that Porter was a non-factor against the run this year. His mere 47 tackles (aside from his rookie year, a career low) and 3 TFLs bear that out. Whether teams were running away from him or directly at him (like the Ravens did heavily) he couldn't shed his blocker and make the stop. In pass coverage, he was equally as silent. This is the first season since 2003 that he failed to record an interception, and his pass defensed total is also a career low as a starter.

Luckily, he compensated for his complete disappearance against the run by absolutely exploding in the sack department. But which area is more likely to be repeated in the future - his performance against the run or his pass-rushing? That scares me a bit, and it reminds me of Jason Taylor's last year or two here, when he became a real liability against the run while still a force in pressuring the QB.

Moving onto the secondary, we have Yeremiah Bell:

	Tkl	Sck	TFL	FF	INT	PD
Projected	77	1.5	3	2	3	12
Actual	120	1	1.5	3	0	10

Some good, some bad. The community obviously didn't picture Bell being so active on defense in terms of making tackles, although as the safety that is usually dropping into the box against the run, it should have been more apparent that he'd come close to leading the team in tackles, if not doing so outright. Perhaps some community members didn't think he'd last an entire 16 games again? If so, it wouldn't have been an unreasonable thought.

As far as INTs go, this is similar to Crowder. Bell has only one career pick. Projecting three this year was probably aiming too high. Bell is known as a playmaker, and rightfully so, but those impact plays do not include interceptions.

Finally, we have Will Allen:

	Tkl	Sck	TFL	FF	INT	PD
Projected	63	1.5	2	1	2	18
Actual	50	1	0.5	1	3	15

There is a curious underestimation of Will Allen among Dolphins fans - sort of a reverse "homer-ism." Either fans don't think that he is as good as he is (which is very good), or they don't understand what makes a good cornerback.

Generally, good cornerbacks will never see enough passes thrown their way to pile up 63 tackles. Tackle statistics are a poor way of measuring a CBs' production. Case in point: Nnamdi Asomugha, the best CB in the game, only had 40 tackles this year. So the community's projection for tackles either means that they don't think very highly of Will Allen or they think he's pretty good but are misreading the correlation between CBs and tackles.

All in all, these defensive projections were a mixed bag. Next week I'll tackle the offensive projections.

But looking back to before this season began, did your statistical expectations for any other defensive players differ or coincide with what they actually produced?

And as always, if you have any suggestions for topics you'd like me to look into for future columns, just let me know in the comments.

Numbers Can't Lie: Readjusting Our Ginn Expectations

PhinPhan in MA — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 15:41:23 -0000

Before I get into the meat of my column today, I wanted to quickly answer a question that a reader (DolfinPhan) asked in the comments of last week's column. He wanted to know the drop-off, if there was any, in Miami's run-blocking after Justin Smiley was replaced in the lineup by Andy Alleman.

In some of the discussion here on the site, it seemed like a lot of people thought the running game remained relatively unscathed after Smiley's injury. And while I really like what Alleman brings to the table as a young prospect, the running game did in fact suffer significantly from Week 13 on.

According to Football Outsiders, Miami's rushing DVOA with Smiley in the lineup was 8.1%; without him, it dropped to 1.9%. Now, that may not seem like a big difference, but consider this: If those DVOA rates were the season-totals, Miami's running attack with Smiley would have ranked 7th overall in the league. Sans Smiley, the Dolphins' run game would have fallen to 14th.

Now, onto the main topic of discussion: Ted Ginn.

Ginn has been a hot topic of conversation around here lately, and for good reason. People want to know what to think about him. Is he a #1 receiver? (no) Is he a bust? (no) Did he improve this year? (yes)

I think a big problem with some of the outrage over Ginn has to do with some, shall we say, "unrealistic expectations," from a lot of the fans.

For instance, let's take a look at Ginn's first year numbers, his Phinsider community-projected numbers for his second year (along with Pro Football Prospectus' KUBIAK projections), and what he actually did this year.

	G	Rec	Pass	Yds	C%	Yd/C	TD	DVOA	Rk	DYAR	Rk
'07 actual	16	34	71	420	48	12.4	2	-25.9%	79	-71	80
'08 Phinsider proj.	16	74	-	1,011	-	13.7	7	-	-	-	-
'08 KUBIAK proj.	16	56	102	762	55	13.6	6	-6.7%	-	-	-
'08 actual	16	56	93	790	60	14.1	2	-10.0%	65	14	66

First off, I'm pretty amazed at how accurate PFP was in their projections. They almost hit his numbers exactly, which is all the more impressive since this was only his second year. On the other hand, the projections that Matty deemed "very doable" at the time they were made, now seem to have been a bit of a pipe dream, no? Out of the 15 people who posted their projections, 8 saw Ginn going over 1,000 yards this year. Only one person projected Ginn gaining less than 800 yards (out of 15!). That tells me that this community had expectations that far exceeded reality.

You might be thinking to yourself, "Well, that's easy to say now." But, honestly, if you take off your Dolphins' cap, did you really, truly believe that Ted Ginn was going to more than double his rookie production? Progression in this league takes time, and developing at the WR position is one of the longer progression paths.

I'm curious as to why those people who submitted projections saw Ginn being able to catch so many passes and gain so many yards this season. If we knew anything about Ginn coming into 2008, it was that he lacked the ability to quickly change directions, making him a below-average route-runner, and he couldn't consistently get any separation from his defender, despite rarely being double-teamed. Now, Ginn certainly does have some very useful traits for a receiver, but he lacks the essential skills required of a No. 1 guy who is going to consistently see 10 balls thrown his way every game. That's just not him. I don't think he ever will be that guy.

Where Ginn's skills would shine, would be opposite a physical possession-type receiver like Anquan Boldin who would demand extra attention underneath, allowing Ginn to run deep routes on a regular basis (much like Lee Evans). Of course, that arrangement would also require a quarterback who could deliver the ball to him on said deep routes. That's simply not Chad Pennington's game, for better or worse.

As nice as this article was that was posted here earlier this week on the Air Yards statistic, it failed to point out the critical fact that just because Pennington is ranked high in most of the Air Yards categories does not mean that he was great at throwing bombs. There are many ways you can amass air yards. Five passes that travel 20 yards in the air are numerically the same as two passes that travel 50 yards. Pennington was great within that 20 yard box, but I could probably count on two hands the number of times he threw the ball more than 35 yards in the air to Ginn.

Plus, Air Yards only measures the distance thrown in a straight vertical line. But if Ginn is lining up wide outside, and running straight down the sideline, whoever is throwing him the ball is not simply throwing a straight pass. That pass has to travel extra yardage to reach outside the hash marks, so suddenly 40 yard passes actually require the ball to travel upwards of 50 yards. Pennington simply doesn't have those passes in his tool belt. That doesn't mean he isn't the right QB for this team - he absolutely is at this moment. What it does mean is that Ginn is not a fit for this offense at this moment, and so his full potential will inevitably have to lie dormant until we get a stronger-armed thrower under center.

Luckily, he's still only 23 years old, so we have time. In the meantime, though, he absolutely has got to get better at creating separation.

Lastly, I'd just like to briefly touch on another component of Ginn that will likely prevent him from becoming a No. 1 receiver.

His body mass index (BMI).

You've likely seen BMI charts when you visit the doctor. They take a person's height and weight into account and spit out a number that represents that person's density. Doctors use these numbers to tell if a person has a healthy weight given how tall they are. As far as NFL receivers go, these numbers are like Nostradamus.

Pro Football Prospectus first wrote about this study in the 2008 edition of their book. It's a fascinating read, and you should check it out if you are interested.

Their research essentially showed that there are four distinct height/BMI combinations that produce elite receivers. They are:

* Slight (average height, low BMI, ex. Torry Holt)

* Short (short, average BMI, ex. Steve Smith)

* Thick (average height, high BMI, ex. Andre Johnson)

* Tall (tall, average BMI, ex. Terrell Owens)

PFP found that of the top 25 receivers drafted from 1998 through 2007 (according to receiving yards per game played) 23 of them fit into one of these four categories. According to the article, "No elite receiver in the last ten years has fallen outside of the Four [body builds]."

Ginn falls closest to being in the slight category, but he is too short and too light to make it in.

While he can't change his height, it seems that Ginn would be well served by putting on an extra 8-10 pounds (Beefcake, anyone?). He's never going to fall into one of the four categories, but at least he can improve his playing build.

Still, when it comes time to discussing WRs in the draft, remember to keep BMI in mind.

As always, if you have any questions or suggestions for future columns, let me know about it in the comments or send me an email.