I’m generally amused/irritated with discussions of streaks, hot hands, bad starts, and other events. Statistically, this doesn’t really make any sense. One of the great books I’ve read recently on the subject was specifically aimed at sports and called “Scorecasting” (recommended from someone on this blog, I might add—thank you).

This is particularly acute with the recent road trip and poor, lambasted Felton and beleaguered McMillan.

Let’s see if we can put this in a way that can help reveal the lie of our intuition disguising the mathematical realities.

We’re all familiar with streaks on the roulette table or games of Risk. This leads to the “gambler’s fallacy” that has been discussed at length elsewhere on this website. But let’s apply it to sports.

Let’s assume a hypothetical LaMarcus Aldridge. We’ll call him Excel Aldridge. Let’s further assume that he’s shooting a pure 45% from the field: every single shot he takes has a 45% chance of scoring. We could assume that he takes a pure 30 shots a game but let’s insert another bit of randomness—let’s assume that each shot only has a 70% chance of being “born” because of offensive vagaries, defensive pressure, or whatever. Let’s finally assume that LMA gives 100% effort every single play so his shooting percentage never deviates and he takes every shot the offense gives him.

Statistically, this would mean LMA would take 21 shots every game, scoring 18.9 points—throw in some number of free throws and you have an easy all-star level player.

Finally, let’s assume a hypothetical hysterical beat reporter named Jeffrey Nimble. How might the first series of games gone down? Let’s let MS Excel throw spit out some random numbers and see:

Game 1: Aldridge is off to a bad start to the season scoring 16 points but needing 25 shots to do it. He missed his first 3 shots and eventually missing 11 of his first 13. McMillan doggedly kept feeding the post and Aldridge turned it around in the second half. 8/25 for 32% shooting percentage.

Game 2: Aldridge rebounds the next night with a workmanlike 22 point outing in game 2, going 4 of 6 to start the game and drilling the opponent at the end of the game with four straight makes in crunch time when it mattered most. 11/23 for 48% shooting percentage.

Game 3: Aldridge’s struggle with his shooting return even though he scored 18 points. Late in the second half he faded missing 5 of his last 6 shots including all 4 close end the game. 9/25 for 36%

Game 4: Aldridge dominates at last with a 28pt outburst controlling the paint all night. He was consistent with his shot all game long finishing 14/28 for a pure 50%. This is exactly what the Blazers need him to do every night.

Game 5: Aldridge finishes the game with an average-for-him 20 points. He started out hot in the first half hitting all five of his first shots. But once again we see him fading—possibly due to the condensed schedule and the back-to-back night—at one point missing 9 straight shots and showing visible frustration. 10/24 for 42% from the field.

This is me forcing a fictional narrative on to absolute random chance according to MS Excel’s random number generator. Just like we predicted, Excel LMA is averaging 20.8 points per game and shooting 48% from the field. But in that stretch he two occasions of 8+ misses in a row. Reading into mathematical fiction like this is like lazy reporting from a box score and hardly enlightening.

Why go through this exercise? Sports is a pursuit where we’re attaching a narrative to statistical probability and this is fun—just like gambling is fun—but it’s fraught with errors in judgment. Understanding the difference between a perfectly normal streak and a developing penchant for turnovers or a developing accuracy in 3 point shooting is a big problem. It’s a place where I try to give the benefit of the doubt to the coaching staff. We see Nolan take maybe 3 shots in a game. That’s way too small a size to make a judgment. Nate sees Nolan take hundreds of shots in practice—he has a much better read.

What I have come to do is respect offenses and systems. Are the Blazers getting open shots? Are they getting shots in motion? Shots off assists? Or are they taking flaming bag shots or isolation shots? I love seeing our defensive and offensive systems work because those systems are generating better statistical probabilities. This is good coaching.

I am not alarmed when a good shooter misses several in a row if they’re good shots. Is he resilient? Does he let it affect him? Do a few misses rattle him? These are the danger signs. Good players, I think, instinctively understand this… fans would have a lot less heartache if they did too. Good coaching creates players who do not get down on themselves when streaks develop.

Does Nate meet these two criteria? Yes, I think he does.

I don't know if you can have scabs in a situation like this or what it actually means. Maybe it's not possible at all.

But this whole thing has reinforced in me why I'm a Blazer fan: it's for the connection with the community. I really enjoy and look forward to watching our current team.

You know what else? I'd be immensely excited to watch Dan Dickau lead a rag-tag group of PacNW locals from the YMCA and community college ranks. I'd welcome back Victor Khryapa, Shavlik, or whatever other D-league players or Euro standouts that wanted to have a shot in the US. Furthermore, I'll bet that they absolutely play their guts out every single night while they have a chance to play at the Rose Garden. What they lack in vertical, they might make up in hustle and sweat.

I want a season. I want to stay up until 11:00pm watching Blazer games here in Illinois, which affords me a chance to see shots of the Willamette river.

I'm getting plenty of standoff negotiations in Iran, Greece, and Washington DC super committees. I didn't need that in the NBA. I want my sport back so I can come home and relax. I'll cheer just as hard, I promise, for second-tier players to get me through the next year or so.

Those of you already familiar with quantum mechanics and superstring theory will already be familiar with the idea that there are a great number of alternate universes out there. For every quantum event, there are two alternate paths that split the universe into two potential—more science babble here—and you realize that there is another universe for every potential outcome.

For those reading who number among Gen-Y and are already glazed over and half asleep while you listen to your iMusic and conduct four separate chat conversations while skyping with your mom, you have yourself to serve as a metaphor. This is kind of like several different realities simultaneously existing in your brainpan.

All this to say, I have been to an alternative universe where the lockout did not happen and I have made a summary of the Blazers Edge events from there to bring back here and give everyone a taste of what they’re missing.

• Nicolas Batum is tearing up camp. He’s dunking over everyone and shoots lights-out in practice. We hear this from players because while Jason Quick has access to the building (and to the locker room), during practice they have him consigned him to the Quick Box, which is a safe room with no external views whatsoever and soundproofed to boot. (This was constructed by Paul Allen as part of an entire bunker designed in the Rose Garden to withstand the Apocalypse for himself, Kolde, and a cadre of close friends.) Quick had broken another story by snaking a mirror on a large metal pole through the ceiling duct to take a peek at a half-erasesd white-board where McMillan had been suggesting a lineup that featured Brandon Roy as point guard.
• That Jason Quick story, which broke on day 2 of training camp (after a glowing report of McMillan taking his veterans—including Felton, whose menu selection was under furious speculation by the blogosphere—out to his annual dinner and them all agreeing that championships and selflessness were good), instantly bifurcated the Blazers Edge into camps of Roy at PG and Felton at PG (flavored, of course, by the young-earth style deniers who believe that the Chris Paul trade is just around the corner and one starry-eyed hopeful named Phizbin who still thought Rodriguez was the answer). Each media session is now filled with questions about which guard brought the ball up the court, assists during practice sessions, and so forth. McMillan will only say that each of them are “doing some things.”
• Ben Golliver gets in a grocery store shouting match with Bert Kolde—it turns out that they both unwittingly share a passion for Trader Joe’s crab dip and surprised each other at a 9:00pm buying spree. This was reported by Canzano, who still lingers in strip clubs hoping to glimpse Zach Randolph and Darius Miles and was buying some designer coffee to stay awake in the corner and witnessed the whole event. This is blessedly minor news in a world where the lockout didn’t happen but it did result in some retrospective posts about KP and Zach Randolph.
• Batum doesn’t help matters by suggesting he could play point guard… but no one really takes him seriously. Even with the French accent.
• Lamarcus Aldridge is almost invisible in the media. This is because he does everything with 95% perfection, makes all of shots with seeming ease, and doesn’t make a production out of grabbing rebounds. The fans don’t mention him; ESPN doesn’t mention him; Blazers Edge seldom mentions him; and LMA is presumably happy with that. He barely makes the all-star ballot.
• In the first pre-season game, Luke Babbit becomes incensed at an unflattering comparison to Josh McRoberts and hits 8-9 three-pointers (he got fouled on the 9th but it didn’t get called because the refs hate the Blazers), capping it off with a whirling dervish dunk over Jarret Jack. Blazer Nation is in love. Calls for him to start abound. Gerald Wallace—who is out for a few days with another concussion after colliding with Felton (which did nothing but inflame the jokes about his (ballooning) weight)  is not inspired to comment to the media. Canzano releases an opinion that they ought to pair up Babbit and Adam Morrison, that is if the Blazers brass had even a tiny fraction of the basketball acumen that he possesses. He is in high heaven between his reporting of the grocery store meltdown and Babbit/Morrison combo—coupled that with the unemployment rate in the Rose Garden district, he is anticipating another prize.
• Greg Oden, I’m sorry to report, is not ready for basketball related activities. I know I should lie and pretend that he is. On the good side, he has avoided keeping the image of anything but his face out of the media.
• The Blazers have not located a GM; no one seems to care very much.
• Eliot Williams has been doing great in practice, to the point where he is creating calls for Brandon Roy style minutes. He and Nolan Smith have become fast friends, creating an unholy mess of a guard situation the likes of which haven’t been seen since Sergio looked like an NBA player. McMillan plans to start Felton and Roy but substitute Williams after 3 minutes of play. Nolan Smith will enter in the second quarter for Felton. After 2 minutes in the second quarter, Batum is subbed out for Roy again, creating the necessity for Williams to drop to the Portland 3-point baseline coffin corner. His shooting percentage is a dismal 14% from 3. To give Camby some rest at the midpoint of the 2nd quarter, LMA will drop to the 5 and Felton will return. Williams plays the 4, Nolan the 3 (his turn to heave threes), Roy the 2, and Felton the 1. Some malcontents suggest defensive struggles with this lineup but they are drowned out by the Faithful. Fourth quarter minutes are unclear and unpredictable—McMillan is going with the hot hand but doesn’t seem to have an appreciation for the statistical volatility in random events with short sample sizes and his hot hand goes no further back than 2 shots. Blazers Edge, each and every day, features a Free Nolan/EWill post, quickly followed by a Veteran Savvy post, peppered with some sabermetrics on the trajectories of pre-season games and rookies. Traffic has never been higher.
• Someone writes an article claiming that an increase in Oregon’s math scores on the SAT is attributable to Ben Golliver, Kevin Pritchard, and Kevin Pelton with their sabermetric analyses. A coda suggests LSAT scores are up because of Storyteller.
• The Blazers enter the season with a pre-season record of .500. Oden is expected to play in 6 weeks. The starting lineup is somewhat in question because we don’t know who is going to start at guard and have been told the starting lineup doesn’t matter anyway. Charles Barkley excoriates the Blazers on this point, then eats a doughnut to emphasize the point. Blazers Edge is thrilled beyond measure that the season is about to start—never having been more excited at the prospect of four awesome guards all playing at the same time (with Chris Paul soon to join!) and Dave promises a t-shirt to the 2,500th post on opening night during the game.

I have a love/hate, conflict-filled relationship with my Blazers fandom and Brandon Roy. This conflict crystallized in me during the OK City game. I had watched Armon Johnson and, to a lesser extent, Miller run the ball down the court to great success (not to mention watching Chicago do the same thing to PDX the prior game to great success).

Then I saw Roy jogging the ball up the court. He jogged so slow that Grandpa Miller passed him at midcourt, took the ball on a handoff/pass, and beat Roy to the 3pt line. It was a clear act of impatience, just like my wife grabbing the vaccuum cleaner away from our 9yr old just to get the job done. Anyone else remember that moment?

I've been thinking a long time on how to express this discontent and reconcile it. Ditto my personal reluctance to offer full support to McMillan despite all kinds of objective evidence that he's great coach.

I think I have the answer finally and it is this: McMillan specifically and the Blazers Mgmt in general are too defential to Brandon Roy.

Thinking back, improvement in Roy's game has always came at the inspiration of Roy himself. "I need to play better defense" he will say; or from last year "Getting to watch Andre from the sidelines I can now see some of the things he's trying to do" or this summer "I need to be more of a vocal leader." [All paraphrased]

Contrast this with what I believe is/was: Phil Jackson's relationship with Kobe; Phil's relationship with Jordan; Riley's relationship with Magic; Sloan's relationship with Stockton and Malone; George Carl's relationship with Carmello (remember when Carmello got benched?); Pop's relationship with Duncan... and the list goes on. I think the crucial, magical ingredient in any star's blossoming is the ability of a coach to sit the star's butt down and say: "Roy, you will RUN down the court or I will bench you; you will move without the ball or I will bench you..." or whatever the case may be.

This is a tough dynamic because Roy is the darling of Portland and the best player they've had in a long time. He is the fanchise. But he can't be left to his own devices; he must be managed.

If there is one single argument to replacing McMillan I think it is this: I don't believe Roy has the respect/fear/awe necessary to defer to McMillan and actually be coached. I imagine that this is the problem with Garnett, perhaps with lingering issues with Anthony, perhaps even with LeBron, and other stars: they don't fail to have talent or work ethic, rather they fail to be managable in the sense of becoming part of the team.

They refuse to submit themselves to a system believing that they can transcend a system.

Roy's game is in a rut. He has achieved a comfort level... and why shouldn't he? ROY followed by 3 all-star appearances, and a max contract is a signed, sealed, and delivered inarguable case that his way has been best. But I don't believe HIS way is THE way.

For all the complaints about Nate's system and the lingering, lurking issues with Roy's "selfishness" or "lack of team play" or "isolation-heavy" mindset, it really comes down to a lack of coachability/managability.

Can anyone tell me sincerely that McMillan has the authority to discipline Roy in any meaningful way? And isn't that a problem? Absent that, I don't see Roy getting out of his rut.

Now cue the Roy string of 33 games of 20pts or more to prove me dead wrong. I'll be happy with that too.

I'm much more of a lurker than a poster... but I've followed with interest the evolution of the term "BBIQ" on this forum. It's certainly become a loaded and provocative term.

I've seen it usually applied to Travis Outlaw, replete with all the arguments that come with it about politically correct issues, statistics, upside, and otherwise.

From my perspective, I get really, really frustrated watching Travis Outlaw. In my mind, BBIQ comes down to something that's extremely subjective and relative to the observer: poor BBIQ = me, the casual fan, seeing opportunities that the player on the TV screen misses. Rightly or wrongly, that's probably as good a definition as any. Certainly, I think the assessment of Nate or KP or a scout regarding their idea of BBIQ and mine are substantially different, but in the forum of the BEdge inteligentsia, it seems that the majority has declared against Outlaw on this basis.

The reason I thought to revisit this issue is from watching Batum play against Utah. I had the opposite experience watching him play. He was breathtaking. First, he was hitting jumpers, which is always nice and if those don't go in maybe he doesn't play more and maybe I have a different opinion. I certainly held my breath when heaved that first 3-pointer. But in general, from his drives, to his dishes, to his defense (including at least one great block), he seemed to me to epitomize what good BBIQ is. In my definition, not only did he take advantage of opportunities I thought I saw on my TV screen, he found plays that I myself (the self-defined expert for the purposes of this definition) missed completely.

His defense seemed to come out of no where. His passes seemed to be hitting players in places--better places-- in stride or set up or some ineffable something, that was missing from other passes. His movements seem more purposeful--he gives every appearance of knowing exactly what he's doing before and during his actions. I don't even know if Broy knows what he's looking for half the time he's driving. Bayless certainly doesn't give that impression. Nor did Sergio, who for his defensive faults was regarded as a good passer in general.

That feeling was encapsulated in his pass to Martell for a 3 pointer near the end. He'd already dropped two dimes to LMA from his favorite spot with passes so good not even the eternally shy LMA could not shoot. Then Batum received a pass on the baseline and could have taken an open 3. He didn't. He passed it off to Webster. (Pretty sure it was Webster.)

Now, it's not unusual for Blazers to pass up shots in the 4th qtr (at least this season with Broy and TO out). But this pass was, I think, qualitiatively different. It was not a flaming bag pass. I didn't get the sense that Batum didn't want to take the shot or lacked confidence. It seemed to me that Batum knew that to win the game--not make this bucket but to win the game--Webster needed that shot and it needed to go in. I would swear that he unconsciously or subconsciously (which?) made that pscyhological calculation and executed, intentionally, the precise play that would've led to a win.

That's a lot of poetry to invest in single play and even in a single game for French 20 year old coming off of an injury.

But I know this: when I think of BBIQ from now on, I'm going to think of those two passes to LMA and the drop off to Martell as well as this game in general. Next time someone complains about needing a definition of BBIQ on a given thread, I'm going to think of this game. Next time LMA tries to pass out of the post falling sideways or TO comes back and takes a spinning fadeaway, I'm going to think of this game.

For me, right now, understanding that it's an emotional, ridiculous, (and irrelevant) fan decision, Batum is about as untradable as any guy on the team right now. For me today and the BBIQ display I saw, Rudy, TO, and Webster all pale in comparison. And I'm a guy who loves watching Rudy play and is generally pleased with Webster's progress.

I suppose this post--the secondof two as it turns out--is really proof that the adage "Familiarity breeds comtempt" is nothing but true.

I had been wondering if Roy was a good teammate. I had checked the play-by-plays to see how much of Roy's game is "in the flow" of the offense versus self-created / self-initiated (ie, "out of the folow). As it turned out 53.5% of Brandond Roy's points (excluding free throws) were deemed "unassisted" by the courtside statisticians. In 5 of the first 13 games, Roy scored more unassisted points than assisted points. Additionally, I had looked at the type of assists: did Roy's passing lead to easy buckets (in the paint) or jumpers (a little more pressure-packed and indicative of potentially standing around by other players "watching"). 62.2% of Roy's assists led to jumpers with the remaining to easy buckets.

Given the above, I had openly wondered if these stats are indicative of a Roy being a good / helpful teammate? Is he the kind of guy that faciliates a team game? Is he the kind of guy that players want to play with? I had been thinking these things because--I'll admit it (once again exposing myself to some BEdge scorn)--I cringe at some of Roy's plays.

To revisit the issue, I went to Joe Johnson of Atlanta as a likely comparison. (Unfair to compare Roy to other PGs like D-Will or CP3.) Would this box score investigation show Joe Johnson in a better or worse light than Roy?

Well, first of all, Johnson is having a better season. He's scored 247 points to Roy's 189 (they're tied with 66 assists through 13 games each). But what about the quality of those points? Do other Hawks like playing with Roy?

The numbers show this: 61.5% of Johnson's points end up being unassisted (compare to Roy's 53%). Furthermore, in 10 of those first 13 games, Johnson had more unassisted baskets than assisted. (I should point out that the bulk of Johnson's assisted points come courtesy of the 3-pt line--if we were looking at plain old baskets, it would be an even starker story).

• 6 unassted points to 4 (Washington)
• 14 to 5 (at Portland)
• 16 to 6 (at Sacramento)
• 8 to 2 (at Charlotte)
• 12 to 8 (Denver)
• 14-3 (at NY)
• 12 to 7 (at Boston)
• 12 to 10 (New Orleans)
• 18 to 10 (Portland) what a game this was!
• 12 to 0 (Houston)

As far as assists go, 57.5% of Johnon's assists are to jump shots versus 62.1% of Roy's (perhaps this just means that the Blazers are better shooters and/or Oden finishes really, really well... bu then again, Josh Smith is good too). There is one thing worth noting--there are a few examples of Joe Johnson tip shots (off of an offensive rebound); these are unassisted points of course but it is revealing that I didn't notice any of these in Portland's play by play.

So, if you buy that these sorts of numbers help shed light on how much a wing player is contributing to the flow of the offense, then Roy is comparing very favorably to Johnson as a "team player." It makes one wonder if the Atlanta blogs have people crying about Johnson's lack of team play.  

I had asked in the first post if I had inhuman expectations of Roy. Reactions were mixed. Some people had the same sort of disquiet I had been experiencing. Others seemed rather perturbed or bewildered (or both) that anyone would question Roy's play in this fashion. In any event, it seems I was wrong. Roy is actually a better team player relative to other star-level SGs (if you take Joe Johnson as a proxy--I highly doubt K*be is playing less selfishly but I refuse to give links that have L*kers data any traffic whatsoever and will not look at them).

So, familiarity breeds contempt. I watch only Blazers games (mostly) and that leads me to find unrealistic fault in Roy's game. Just like people find tiny flaws in their spouses over time (except for mine, mine is perfect).

It can also give us some lessons on Nate and the general phenomenon of fans hating coaches and loving back-up PGs. Again, over-familiarity and a lack of relative context can (and does) lead to foolish assessments.

Still, I personally would find the game more enjoyable to watch if there were fewer isolation plays. That we can say players who score the majority of their baskets unassisted is ok says something about the state of basketball itself (perhaps).

I like Brandon Roy a lot. As a Blazer fan, how can you not? He fits the culture perfectly. He's skilled beyond measure. ROY and 2-time all star in 3 years. And now, he commands our loyalty if, for no other reason, he's locked up for a while with a big contract.

But I've sometimes felt a vague disquiet watching him play. And I see that diquiet on the BEdge at times.

• Roy has to have the ball in his hands
• Roy talks to the officials about a no-call instead of getting back on defense
• Roy walks the ball up the court
• Roy doesn't run the fast break
• Roy doesn't play off the ball well
• Roy can't play with Miller (people don't say that much any more)
• Roy can't play with Rudy
• Roy can't play with Sergio
• Roy can't play defense; Roy doesn't try on defense
• Roy plays too much one on one
• etc.

I don't know how much of this is true. But I started to think about how to quantify what Roy means to a team. Do people want to play with Roy? Is a good teammate? When I hear people talk about the "right way" to play basketball--something McMillan says all the time--I think of team basketball, lots of passing, lots of running, lots of defense. The "right way" doesn't really describe Roy for at least some of the time.

Is it heresy? Can anyone even say these things without getting stoned?

So I went through the play-by-play of the games this season. I looked at all the points Roy scored (excluding free throws) that were assisted by another player or created on his own. One of the knocks is that Roy works all by himself in isolation in this 1-4 offense (a term I never heard of before Roy). How many of Roy's points are "in the flow" versus self-created? (Caveats: I don't know if free throws were "assisted" or not, nor are missed shots the result of one-on-one play or not... my sense is that a great deal of the free throws were the result of one-on-one action--a significant part of Roy's scoring.)

It turns out that 53.4% of Roy's points have been "unassisted." More than half. But is that too much? It turns out that of the 13 games played this far in the season, Roy has scored over half his points "unassisted" in five of those games:

• 9 to 5 (Denver)
• 15 to 4 (San Antonio)
• 8 to 3 (New Orleans)
• 16 to 3 (Charlotte)
• 8 to 7 (Altanta)

Does this promote stagnant offense? Is this appropriate for your superstar? I'll be frank: I was surprised that it was only five games. I thought it would be more. Perhaps I have inhuman expectations of Roy.

The other thing I took a look at was the type of assists that Roy dished out. If Roy is passing for layups and dunks, why that's a fun thing and it's a joy to play with a teammate who provides you with easy buckets. On the other hand, assists that lead to jump shots--well, that's a different story. It means the receipient of the pass is generally standing around waiting for something to happen and perhaps not involved in the offense (I'm thinking of complaints from Batum and Rudy along with the pretty weak expectations of offense from Blake and Webster: just make 3s). Moreover, a pass for a wide-open jumper carries a different kind of pressure. The sort of pressure that says: "Don't let me down... you'd better make this!!" Maybe not a "flaming bag" pass but certainly a pass that carries the weight of expectations with it.

It turns out that 37.8% of Roy's assists have been for easy buckets (almost exclusively to "bigs") with the majority going for pressure-packed jump shots (often 3s). Of the 13 games, 7 of them featured more perimeter assists than "paint assists."

• 4 to 1 (Houston)
• 5 to 0 (OK City)
• 4 to 2 (Atlanta)
• 5 to 2 (Memphis)
• 4 to 1 (Minnesota)
• 5 to 0 (Charlotte)
• 3 to 2 (Detroit)

So it's awesome that Portland's mega-star guard actually passes the ball as much as he does to generate these assists. But, I do have this vague disquiet about the style of assist.

I watched Roy pretty closely in the Detroit game as I was letting these matters percolate in my head. What I saw Roy do, I'm not sure I ever noticed before. Maybe he was tired. He played a lot of minutes. But he took plays off. Just like Randy Moss took plays off in Minnesota, Roy would camp out at the 3 literally with hands on hips not even remotely involved in the offense. Again, do I have inhuman expectations in that I expect him to set an off-screen or move a bit or perhaps look around for a long offensive rebound? I do know that this isn't what Rudy or Bayless do when they're on the floor. But maybe Roy doesn't have to.

In summary, I think I'm looking for Roy's game to continue to evolve. I guess I'm saying that--all star though he is--if doesn't develop further I don't think he's worth the contract. I don't think that he can legitimately say that he's making his teammates better. He is most certainly making the winning percentage better... but I don't think the individual games of Rudy, LMA, Batum, Webster or any of these other guys is necessarily better when he's on the floor. I want to see him catch a pass from someone else on the move. I want him to create opportunities for other players that don't involve a perimeter jumper. And most of all, I want to see some off ball effort.

Or maybe he needs to be the PG after all? Maybe my "disquiet" is completely unwarranted in the face of a fine start to a season and games where Portland has really dominated teams for majority portions of games.

Is anyone else disquieted?

Updated: tried to fix the crummy formatting.

Here are the qualifying remarks up front:

• I was drinking steadily over the course of this game. Detail may have wandered by the fourth quarter.
• You guys can read the box-score on your own. I tried to relay stuff in the mold of Ben’s Media Row reports.
• Finally, a shoutout to my sister who, for my Christmas present, got me seats for this game that were in the third row behind the Blazers bench, which gave me a great view of everything happening and gives rise to the notes below. Especially those notes regarding Rebecca Harlow.

Milwaukee is a beautiful city. Broad avenues, tons of open park space near the water front, relatively clean, and while unemployment was listed at 8.8% on the day of our arrival, it seems in relatively good spirits.

The first thing we did was try to enter the US Cellular arena with our Bucks tickets. It turns out the game is actually played in the Bradley center. Whoops.

In the Bradley Center, things were a lot more happening. There was a live band playing Cold Play covers. It was spacious and cool. We got a bobble head for some guy named Bobby Dandridge. Weird thing about the stadium: no microbrews! What’s up with that?! That afternoon, we had a great tour at the Lakefront Brewery that makes all kinds of great beer but you can’t get any of it at the stadium. That’s very poor. Especially since they charged me $7.00 for the Miller Lite. Also, I recall some controversy over the Rose Garden selling Kobe jerseys. Well, I checked the Bradley Center for Brandon Roy jerseys and there were none to be found. Apparently, Roy hasn’t arrived yet.

So, I’m kind of a closet Rebecca Harlow fan… here are all the RH notes. First, she was rocking a black silk blouse and mini-skirt tonight and looking great! She had these heels… they must have been four inches easy. That must be to assist her in interviewing taller Blazer players. Two funny notes about RH: first, she has impeccable footwork when interview in front of the camera with one foot hooked around the other foot (I happen to learn this is the proper female stance from my wedding photos); second, before sitting on the padded bench for press row, she examined it for cleanliness and actually avoided one spot because it wasn’t clean enough. Rebecca: always the professional! (My friend, who was with me, didn’t know who Rebecca was. I explained her by saying, “Well, she’s kind of like Melissa Stark for the Trail Blazers” and that resonated.)

There were a smattering of Blazer fans all over the arena and almost all of them were wearing #7 jerseys. Near us, there was a son and mother combo where the mother must’ve been 70 but rocking a Blazers jersey. Very cool. There was even one Sonics jersey in the crowd sporting a Ridnour jersey. Way to never say die, Sonics Fan!

Batum was in street clothes as everyone knows. I yelled at him once in warmups shouting, “Nicholas! Nicholas! Get healthy man!” He looked but was nonplussed. Hey, at least I tried. I was trying to imply mentally that this was on behalf of all Blazers Edge but I don’t think my telepathy got through. He certainly wasn’t in a chatty mood.

Blake chatted up Richard Jefferson for quite a while during warmups. Bayless actually talked up some guy on the Bucks who never entered the game and I never figured out who it was. So there is a streak of humanity in Bayless (which will be a disappointment to mahy Bayless fans).

Also during warmups, Joel is out there getting stretched by a trainer. The trainer basically has him in a position that looks like “the buck” position, which is a position familiar to any rap enthusiasts out there. So while Joel is on his back in “the buck” with another guy, this TV camera guy puts the camera right in Joel’s face and starts filming a close-up. Tough to be in the NBA… if I were Joel, I’d’ve punched the guy.

During the national anthem it was interesting to see that Nate was ramrod straight and still. Channing Rye and Ruffin both listened to it with reverently bowed heads. Everyone else took it all very casually.

During the intros to the Bucks, it’s dark with spotlights intermittently flashing and this drum corps making a racket and, during it all, Nate is drawing up plays by himself on his little whiteboard. That’s dedication. The man never stops.

All the starters fist-bumped the Mikes during their intros. Love for the TV crew.

Another interesting note, I saw that the Bucks press corps—and for all I know, the whole NBA—is running Microsoft Windows 2000. Are you kidding me? It appeared to be jammed and showing an error message for the first part of the game.

So the game:

At 7-0 (Bucks leading—I will list their score first from here on out) Nate calls a timeout. I was expecting him to cuss out the players. But he didn’t. He didn’t—not one single time in this game—lose his temper in front of the players. He was a marvel of calm. I did notice, weirdly, that Brandon Roy did not pay the slightest bit of attention to Nate while he was drawing up a play and coaching. Weird.

At 9-0, Nate stands up for the first time and I don’t think sat for the rest of the game. Right after he stood, Roy got fouled and made two free throws.

11-4, Blazers look really tired and, despite Dave’s pre-game notes that they need to drive the lane, no one seems to have the energy to do that. Rudy comes in the game. You can’t believe how skinny that guy is in person. I don’t think he’s ever lifted a weight in his life.

22-16, there’s a timeout is called after Rudy gets fouled pretty hard. He’s cracked across the jaw and he spends the whole timeout wincing and working his injured mandible. Once again, Roy doesn’t give Nate the time of day during the timeout but instead watches the Bucks dancers. Who have to say are pretty dang awesome.

1st Qtr close, Sergio is mad (and Bayless doesn’t enter the game!! Dang, I know I’m not supposed to mention this because of Dave’s moratorium but can we stop with the flip-flopping of back-up PGs???) and slaps the chair. He actually set up some open shots and I thought he finished the quarter well. But he wasn’t pleased with his play. Rudy is still working over his jaw the whole break between quarters.

26-20, another timeout and I notice that Blake, even though he’s no even in the game and Nate’s not addressing anyone not in the game, is intently watching the play he’s drawing up. Unlike Roy, who is still more interested in dancer festivities. At this timeout, the Bradley Center holds a baby race. This is the coolest thing I’ve ever seen. Four moms come out with their infants, they put them on a straight race track of four lanes, and try to encourage them to crawl to the finish line. One stopped and cried the whole time. One went halfway there and turned around and crawled back to the start. But the winner chased his teddy bear all the way to the finish line and advanced to the next round, which is apparently going to be in the next game.

29-23, Trout gets the most undeserved assist in the history of the NBA when he fires a pass at Rudy’s nose on his drive. Rudy somehow manages to catch the ball (a miracle in itself) and make the 3 pointer. Nate looks heavenward in exasperation even though the ball went in. Many times during this game, Nate looked more angry at made shots than missed ones.

32-28, another timeout, and Nate tells the whole team very distinctly, “You’ve gotta slow down, alright? You’ve gotta slow down.” Well, so much for pushing the pace.

35-31, Joel fouls Sessions pretty and hard and comes to Nate for advice in game without Nate even beckoning him. That’s pretty cool. He seemed satisfied with whatever Nate told him because I saw him say, “Ok.” I like to see that.

Halftime. Ok, don’t know what happened because I really had to recycle some beer. In the bathroom, some Milwaukee guy says, “Hey, at least we don’t have to pee in troughs like a bunch of Savages. Thanks Wrigley field for a 100 years of failure.” Why did he have to hate on Chicago? As it turned out, Milwaukee’s bathroom, while not having troughs, also lacked soap at the sink and paper towels. So much for hygiene. They must rely on whatever chemicals Miller is pumping into the Milwaukee river for cleansing.

Coming out of halftime, Nate is drawing up plays and NOW Roy is paying pretty close attention. I was kinda watching the dancers. I have to report that the Bradley center was about three-quarters full and the fans were pretty cool. Even the ones that weren’t Blazer fans.

43-40, while Joel is shooting free throws after getting fouled, Sessions is calling some kind of play to his team. Blake looks right at him and says, “What’s that?” Sessions is a rookie and didn’t know better, I guess, because he actually answered Blake and Blake immediately relayed that information to Roy. Weird.

43-46, Blazers are in the lead and Trout makes a long, typical Travis shot. Nate is unmoved. He reacts to a lot of things but he has learned to not be emotionally involved in Travis’ shot selection.

46-48, OMG, Trout scores and then he taketh away with that turnover. Wow. Even the Bucks fans were laughing.

51-57, timeout… Roy is really paying attention now. I guess he waits for the second half to listen to Nate.

51-59, out of timeout, Blake makes this crazy turnover and Nate immediately turns to Oden. Weird, but it seems like the rookie is the equivalent of Nate’s calming medication. Oden the soporific.

56-65, Refs hate Sergio just like the Sergio conspiracy theorists claim everybody hates Sergio. He gets absolutely mauled out on the court and the refs look the other way.

58-67, Sergio tries to pass to Rudy and Rudy is in a different place on the court. There was kind of a tense moment between the two when Surge is kind of pissed at Rudy. The Spanish Connection is not always transmitting data at 100mbs.

58-67, holy cow! Sergio gets mutilated like the bull in “Apocalypse Now, Director’s Cut” and sill no foul. The refs really hate Sergio!! Oden has to come out after the subsequent foul. I know that Ben takes some heat for criticizing Oden’s attitude, but check it out: as Oden comes out every player offers a high five (or some version thereof) to Oden and he basically ignores all of them. He kind of walks by and allows his hand to accidently brush them but doesn’t make any effort despite their efforts to cheer him up. This is contrary to every other player coming out. I think his reputation may be a little deserving.

65-73, LMA is coming back into the game. Sergio is looking over his should expecting to get pulled but doesn’t. Poor kid… always looking over his shoulder.

74-82, I’m trying like hell to get the attention of this brunette Bucks dancer and get a T-shirt… but I can’t get any love from her. Darn it!

79-84, another timeout. I don’t know what Roy is watching but I’M watching the dancers.

86-91, Roy makes this sick, sick shot that had no right to go in but does because he’s so incredibly awesome. But Nate doesn’t care. He calls timeout anyway because he’s mad.

It’s 1:10 to go now and the crowd has given up. I’m standing and cheering from my awesome third row seat. Check it out: security tells me to sit down. Mind you, I’m being very polite and it turns out no one is allowed to stand while the game is in session in the front rows!! Wow. Can you imagine that happening in the RG? Maybe it does… if so, I don’t want to know about it. I felt like The Man was cramping my style.

All in all, the Bucks fans I talked to love Sessions, love Jefferson, and hate Ridnour. They’re in awe of Roy. There is a lot of booing for Oden, which is weird. His injury reputation is pervasive in the NBA because the fans that were heckling were heckling Oden for his injury. Gotta be grating on the kid.

At the end of the game, I couldn’t get any autographs from the players. But check it out:

I GOT AN AUTOGRAPH FROM REBECCA HARLOW!!!!! She was so sweet. She wrote, “Thanks for being a fan, Neil. Love, Rebecca Harlow.”

Dude, Rebecca Harlow LOVES ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’m going to take that one to the Bank!!!

Hope you guys enjoyed my recap. Sorry if it’s a little nonsensical and less detailed at the end. As it is, I regard this as a workmanlike victory. The Blazers did just enough to win: not an ounce of more effort than was required and not an ounce less. A good win in this kind of setting at the end of a road trip.

So, call me the typical uneducated fan.

I had Sergio man-love during the JJ era and contine to have some now. In fact, I thought Surge played very well against Cleveland when he got in the game.

I've also been horrified by Outlaw on many occasions and was secretly hoping he'd get traded.

But here's the deal. When I look at the two players--Outlaw and Fernandez--for this season (and this season only!) I see this happening

1) The one player almost always makes the "smart" play, takes mostly open shots, makes the passes, and generally plays ball the "right" way. And he clangs bricks all over the place. He does not strike fear in the hearts of his adversary.

2) The othe player makes the "smart" play once per week. He takes the most insanely foolish shots this side of pop-a-shot. He makes fans and coaches and wannabe coaches alike all cringe with his shot selection, defensive rotation, and other basketball strategery. And he's dropping points in left and right. When he has the ball, you can just see the other team think "Oh my God what is he going to do NOW?!" That's fear.

I know everyone is always talking about Voltron point guards where we combine them into some kind of uber being. But I'm wanting that with the SF position. I want Rudy's brain inside Travis' body. As Rudy was clanging balls off the rim from wide open looks last night I kept thinking, Sweet Mary, imagine how many points Travis wuld score if he would just get open like that.

So the next game, I'm going to try and chart it out: wide open shots that Rudy misses versus contested/foolish shots that Travis makes.

I think the outcome will be telling.

(And I agree with JQ: Rudy really does get a free ride some times... but I gotta say, I love watching the guy. But I'm REALLY going to love watching Travis at the opponent's court absolutely driving the opposing teams' fans crazy. You think Outlaw drives us crazy? Imagine what it feels like to be on the other team and watch that stuff drop IN!)

Jason Quick is reporting that Paul Allen is fed up. And his response is to unveil the Mass Populace Coaching Machine (MPCM).

After coming to the conclusion that one person cannot possibly see all the angles necessary for perfectly coaching a team in real-time, he has unveiled an experimental method. The top 100 posters of Blazers Edge will be wired up before each game and—in a pattern familiar to those who watched the real-time pollsters during the presidential debates—will press good/bad buttons on various personnel and plays that will dictate the course of the game. Thus, the MPCM. Organizational insiders, in homage to 2001: A Space Odyssey, are merely calling it “Dave.”

“It’s a little bit like a video game,” Paul Allen said. “But it’s real. That’s what I do. With my money, I mean. I make fantasy stuff real.”

Kevin Pritchard is in favor of the movement. “This is about culture. And what reflects the culture of Portland better than the area’s leading fan site calling the shots? It’s about culture and it’s about growing the culture. Dave of Blazers Edge has a culture that we want to emulate. Culture.”

When asked if he would participate in the polling given the rumors that he maintains three separate identities on the popular website, he said only “You have to ask yourself, would it help the culture?” and wandered off to a local arts festival.

The margin of victory for PG is currently razor thing. Polls today indicate that Sergio has a 0.0012% lead for the starting position but that it could change by game time. In fact, observers have speculated it could change during the national anthem or if Sergio smiles at his opponent during the pre-game handshake. SergioFTW—having made the top-100 by the skin of his teeth—said, “There are a lot of haters out there. They feel like B-rex being a total jerk to the opponent is going to translate to wins. It’s about running the offense… and you can run the offense with a smile on your face. And anyway, look at this graph. It shows wins and losses correlated with the number of PG smiles. As you can see, Bayless actually DOES smile a lot but people just don’t see that.” Asked for a response to SergioFTW, Bayless bit the head off of a hapless pigeon and continued to practice jump shots.

The MPCM is expected to be heavily engaged in the PG position where Sergio, at the first turnover or opponent layup is likely to be pulled from the game—usually at the 11:32 mark in the 1st quarter. Bayless will then play until the first handcheck foul—estimated to be at the 11:04 mark. Each player is expected to receive about 25min of playing time in chunks of 40 seconds.

The day-to-day coaching stuff—still responsible for player development—is a bit concerned.

“It’s going to be kind of chaotic,” said Bill Bayno, “I mean, are we going to pull Outlaw whenever he makes a fruit loop shot? But what if they go in? They do, you know. I don’t know why, either but they do. I mean, Dave… er, the MCPM, will probably substitute out Travis while the ball is in the air and then put him back in if the shot goes in. It’s going to be kind of hard to respond to keep up with that.”

Rudy is in favor of the new system but is coy about why. But other players were less shy. “Shoot, this Dave don’t bother him none,” teammate Diogu explained, “I mean, he’s hot! Look at him. Even I kinda dig him a little bit. He’s got the whole female vote locked down, know what I mean? Now look at my hair. Look at it! How am I gonna get any burn with this mop? Now I gotta invest in stuff for looks.”

Dave himself is very excited about the prospect. “I regard it as the natural evolution of coaching,” he said. “Look at the history. Sabremetrics has replaced the box score. Blogs have absolutely destroyed print media because we’re better, we’re faster, and we’re more real. The coach was the next logical extension of the internet.”

When asked what was next, Dave responded, “Isn’t it obvious? It’s KP’s job! We trust him and he’s done a great job—and I think he should keep his position as minister of culture—but really, we can do better. Once we perfect the coaching, we’ll use the aggregated scores from all of our trade drawers to execute trades and drafts.”

For the upcoming games, Roy has been cautioned against whining to the officials, Oden has brought in some acting coaches to make him look more motivated for the voters, and Batum was seen practicing his smiles. “You are hot you French devil you. Oui! You know what the French can do! Who would not vote for you!”  

Some defects exist, however. It appears that Blake and Webster might actually get playing time despite not being on the active roster and Jarret Jack is getting some votes despite playing for the Pacers. In fact, Kevin Durant and Chris Paul are appearing on some MPCM schemes as some refuse to accept that they weren’t drafted. “The MCPM is going to execute things as they should be, not as they are,” Mortimer announced with vigor.

“There are some bugs,” Dave responded. “We’ll work that out.”

I've been following the Sergio v Bayless trials and the Agony of Outlaw issues as closely as anyone. I happen to be of the camp that likes what Sergio brings and sort of wishes Outlaw got traded for something steadier.

I have a different take, though. Instead of bickering about minutes and potential and points and assists and (foolishly) discussing the racial aspect of "basketball IQ", I've charted out a rather disturbing trend over tonight's game against Charlotte and the 10 games prior.

The Trailblazers have lost 10 of the last 11 quarters. They have lost virtually every first quarter that they've played in. 

This is staggering really. I think this qualifies as a trend. Very, very obviously the Blazers are struggling mightily in the first quarter.

Why?

I think there are a couple of different reasons:

1. It could be that Sergio really is better for the Blazers than anything else.
2. It could be that Joel is that much better tha Oden and Oden's presence is hindering the first quarter.
3. Outlaw really is way better than Batum... Batum's presence is hurting us in the first quarter.

And whatever else people can come up with. But it is very interesting to me that with Oden and Batum on the floor, Portland seems to be getting routinely spanked. With Rudy, Joel, and Outlaw on the floor (I'm thinking 4th quarter minutes here), Portland seems to be faring better. Someone is making up these points somewhere else.

I think there are enough terrifying implications in the first quarter trend to worry Bayless Enthusiast, Sergio Defenders, Oden Apologists, Swooning Over Rudy Women, and Batum Optimists. This is bad no matter what way you look at it.

This is, I suppose, what is worrying KP and Nate at these times.

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Someone somewhere else was talking about Oden and his inability to get a pass on the pick-and-roll driving that person "bat poop crazy."

Want to know what used to drive me bat poop crazy? Jarrett Jack stepping out of bounds. I hated that. Made me want to barf all over my TV; and I like my TV... it's big and shiny.

But check out the production from Jack the last few games since TJ Ford went down

• 1/5, 41min, 17pts, 7 ast
• 1/3, 34min, 13pts, 7 reb
• 1/2, 41min, 29pts, 5 reb (and game winning shot!)
• 12/30, 31min, 22pts, 4 ast
• 12/28, 31min, 9pts, 6 ast
• 12/26, 35min, 6pts, 5 ast

Some of those games are pretty good... but check out the minutes! Those are Brandon Roy type minutes!! Some coach out there is giving some love to JJ.

Makes me kind of miss the guy. I miss Ime tons when I watch Outlaw wander around in his habitual fugue state but seeing these figures after watching Sergio/Bayless struggle and Rudy launching three-balls fromall over (you can do that as a sub... not a starter!!) it made me kind of miss JJ.

Do we have to wait for three more seasons for Bayless to be as good as JJ is NOW? Someone talk me down from the ledge.

This has been simmering in me for a while and I think it has finally reached a requisite level of comprehensibility for the BEdge inteligentsia. Please take this whole journey with me...

I am 37 and a Blazer fan since the heady days of Terry and Clyde. They won and I loved them. I was able to overlook the Utah incident with Kersey and the others. More importantly, I adored Mark Bryant, Robert Pack, and James "Hollywood" Robinson. Even Alaa Abdelnaby got some love from me... even when he forgot to put on his uniform when he was about to enter the game.

I watched every game of the Carlisimo and Dunleavy years. I loved Brian Grant. I cheered lustily for Stoudamire and Greg Anthony and tried to look over their feud. I cheered for Pippin. I cheered for Rahim.

I watched the sour Cheeks years. I tried to be enthused about Sebastian Telfair but I sincerely managed to convince myself that Viktor Khryapa and his other Russian friend would turn out to be very, very good (a guess like Sergio and Rudy are now).

So what's the point?

Actually, that question *is* the point. I keep asking myself, why do you cheer for any particular team?

To me, it seems to boil down to one of two central issues in being a sports fan. You are either

1. Invested in winning and winning only. You are, at least in your mind, assembling a winning team and everything else is secondary. Note: that doesn't mean "nonexistent" or "completely unimportant" but merely "secondary." Otherwise, it is
2. You are a fan to celebrate the fact of a city's (say Portland's) identity. You feel a connection to the city when you watch the team, you feel an affection for the players who--in a special sense--represent you. For you, *winning* is secondary. Note: that doesn't mean winning is "unimportant" but merely secondary.

To me, this issue manifested itself recently in two ways.

In the first case, Kevin Garnett embodies item number one above. He was purchased from another team--not drafted and developed. He is a complete jerk and does things that are embarassing but many fans tolerate it because he brings wins. I know many people like to say that they hated Zack Randolph's character but let's be honest: if he had been bringing in wins (or if Wallace had given us a ring) many would have overlooked the strip clubs and the towel throwing incident. To me, many of the fans discussing various trade proposals fall into this first group: they want to assemble a winning squad and care little about the other items.

In the second case... now this is interesting. I'm thinking of my affection for Kryappa and James Robinson and Mark Bryant and Kevin Duckworth... lots of guys. But I'm really, really thinking of Steve Blake and Channing Frye. What do all of these players have in common? They were not--or are not now--seen as part of a winning franchise's future. Truly, it is the recent article about Channing Frye that got me thinking about this specifically.

Channing Frye is the absolute epitome of a guy that represent Portland. He loves the city, it's restaurants, he blogs about it and interacts with the locals... he is the *perfect* player to represent the city of Portland. Except for one thing: he doesn't really fit in the rotation.

If you are a fan of the second order, you're ok with that. You are a fan that would happily field a starting lineup of Dan Dickau, Brandon Roy (who is the magic player: very talented, local (from UW anyway), and good guy), Outlaw (who represents Portland well for all his boneheaded plays), Channing Frye, and God knows who else with a little international flavor all because they represented Portland well. You would cheer for them at their games and care little whether they won or lost. Or at least not as much.

I'm very conflicted about this. In a very tangible way, I *feel* better when "my team" wins. I'm a little happier the next day. I look more forward to the big games. I don't *like* watching "my team" lose. But I also don't want a team of mercenaries like the Boston Celtics. I don't want to trade for Kobe or Chris Paul or Rondo or any of these other guys because I haven't "grown up" with them on the team.

But here we are: we're ready to dump Frye, Outlaw, and Blake to the free market. We have dumped Udoka to the free market... all in the name of getting "better." But why do we cheer? What do we *really* want?

In economics, there is the concept of price sensitivity for goods sold: that is, a market is "inelastic" if its resistant to changing prices. Batteries, for example, aren't terribly different and are highly elastic: people buy whatever one is cheapest (typically). Other items--let's say maybe medical care or car mechanics--there is differentiation in value and you might pay a few extra bucks for service or something else.

I think there's a certain price sensitivity in the world of fans and that currency is not in dollars but in wins.

I'm suggesting that I'm willing <i>to give up a certain number of wins for players as *cool* as Channing Frye.<i> Not lots of wins... not whole winning season... but I'm very willing to give up, say, five wins knowing that Channing Frye is a part of this team. I'm ok having playoffs but not getting a ring if the difference is Frye on my team or Garnett. I am "win-tolerant" in the economic sense given character issues.

So at the end of this long post, here are the players I'm thinking of. How mahy wins would you individually sacrifice to keep these playesr on the team?

Channing Frye: 5-8 wins

Travis Outlaw: 2-4 wins

Nate McMillan: 2-4 wins

Rudy: unknown but probably a bunch

Steve Blake: 3-5 wins

(But here's the rub: those wins sure do start adding up!)

BEdgers, I ask you: as you blog about trades and coaching changes and minutes and development and what-all, <i.what do you really want?<i>

I have this thought: I tend to think horrible thoughts about the Blazers after they lose and highly idealized thoughts after they win. And it hit me that that's kind of dumb.

So in order to avoid the overreaction after the W/L column, I thought I'd itemize out a few things I thought were very, very good about last night's game... maybe see if anyone's with me.

• Sergio really seems to be coming into his own. I almost cried when he started to shoot those threes that looked halfway credible. I think he plays a little fuzzy with Brandon still but I loved the way he runs up the court with the ball... I think it even caused Brandon to pick up his pace a little bit when he brought the ball up just out of sheer shame. Really like to see the growth of Sergio.
• Outlaw... God love him. Couldn't stand the guy for a while. Why? Because those "fruit loop" shots he takes weren't going in and that makes all the difference in the world. But you know what? I'm still shivering at that massive dunk he put down near the end of the game and there was another drive right after it. YES!! Go to the hole, man! I've been waiting SIX YEARS for some freaky dunks from that kid and I finally saw one last night in a game-crucial situation. Give me some more of that! I'm tired (fatigued!) of those weird shots... give me some drives! Give me some fouls! That's the Trout I remember from last year.
• Oden! Ah, what can you say. Was it great having him out there or what? He swallows defensive rebounds. We had this giant flaw in the Blazer team and he has absolutely plugged that hole. I like the dunks. I like the offense. I LOVE the FT shooting. I don't know if I'm exactly proud of the Shaq-like calls he's already getting (I was feeling for the GSW a couple of times when they were whistled for fouls... the ghost of Sabonis playing Shaq is hovering over me when I see that) but I'm glad for the team that they're coming. Best of all, I think Oden being able to play has actually dramatically improved Pyrzbilla's play. (Oden is travelling a bit... he's going to have to fix that.)
• And Pryzbilla's actually getting some dunks! Love that too.
• Roy got some dunks! I like it when he dunks.
• I was listening to the GS feed on League Pass... it was really enjoyable hearing the announcers groan every time Portland launched a 3-pointer. Used to be that Blazer fans groaned when that happened... now it's the other team. We made a ton of those shots. Yeah, I remember a few wide open looks that Rudy missed. But the GSW announcers kept saying how the whole team could shoot (they were even including Sergio). They also made the point that--at one instant in the game--Portalnd had taken 20 3-pointers. If those had all been 2-pointers and they made every single one of them, that'd be 40pts. As it happened, we had made 12 of those 3-pointers for 36pts. That is phenomenal! And it scared the GSW guys to death.
• We're settling into predictable minutes for everyone. I think some of those minutes are coming at the expense of Blake and I think Frye is headed for a perm seat on the bench... but I think Nate is finally arriving at a predictable series of substitutions throughout the game. I don't care who you think SHOULD be playing, it's darned nice to see that everyone knows ahead of the time IF they're playing. A very good step.
• Finally, I hate to admit this... but I actually enjoyed watching the GSW play. They are really a fun, exciting team to watch. I really like Biedrins. I like all the fast breaks. This was my first look at the Morrow kid and I liked him. I love the thought of this being an intense rivalry for the Blazers in the future. I'm really looking forward to the next matchup.

Because I can't help it, I hope LMA finds a game, Bayless stays out of the game (I thought he looked bad), Frye finds a defense, and Sergio finds (his own) offense.

So, I feel better looking over everything. This team is really working.

Btw, maybe because I was on the GS feed I didn't quite see the same controversey in the refs. I did think Rudy committed the foul first. I was glad to see Roy called for the lane violation because I don't think rules should be ignored in the final minutes... if anything, they should be more rigorously enforced. I thought there were several calls that favored the Blazers, particularly with Greg Oden. The GS announcers actually said that it was a relatively well-officiated game (prior to knowing the conclusion, btw) and I found myself agreeing with them.

I've seen some brutally officiated games--Addelman's Sacramento Kings comes to mind in the Game 6 Conference Finals when Nadar himself wanted an investigation. This wasn't anywhere near that.

I think everyone should take a breath and examine how the announcers and our own loyalties influence our view of the officiating. It's definitely not the reason we lost this game.

I am not here to make a great, tumid judgment call on LMA and his future. I'm not going to advocate a trade, a benching, more minutes, less minutes, or even a new coach.

I just thought I saw something in the last few road games and I wanted to see if anyone else saw it too.

In the last three road games, I've been pretty happy with LMA on the defensive end. He's going for blocks, getting rebounds, etc. His defense seems sound to my untrained eye. His offense looks good...

... that is, his offense looks good in the first three quarters generally speaking.

In the fourth quarters of the last few games, I swear it seems like LMA is a little bit afraid to shoot the ball. Like he's not looking for his offense even a little tiny bit. Almost as if he's eager to defer to Roy and even Fernandez.

In the Atlanta game, before Rudy made his awesome little turnaround jumper (with just a leeeetle bit of travel) I was shouting at the screen the first few possessions for LMA to take the shot. He'd come out top and not even glance at the basket where in the first few quarters I'd be expecting a jumper or a drive.

In the New Orleans game... same sort of story. I remember crying at the TV just begging LMA to look for a little O... but it didn't happen. We got Rudy and Roy pushing... and they couldn't come through that game. The only shot I remember LMA taking is the baseline 3-pointer. I know he missed it but I was happy to see him take it. That's sort of his game. (But a little part of me now remembers that the shot was short... a sign of nerves, pundits will tell me at halftime shows.)

Then in the MN game--and I'm looking for it now--in the fourth quarter, it seemed to me like LMA was very eager to defer to Roy and Rudy in the 4th quarter. Even Outlaw.

I strolled through the game message board. I saw charming comments (from blzrfan with several comments like this) "Maybe LMA will get his head out of his butt" and (from tweener) "Buck up LMA we need something" and (from odiferous emanations 74) "I wish LA were playing tonight. We could use him" (from norsktroll) "LMA and Rudy are non-factors so far (with about 6min to go).

 What was really intersting is that there was a resounding, echoing silence regarding any LMA in the 4th quarter. Plenty of chatter about Oden, Rudy, Roy, and Outlaw. Nothing for LMA but these plaintive mentions.

So I'm wondering... does anyone else have this suspicion that LMA doesn't want the ball in the 4th quarter? If so, is that ok given we have Roy, Rudy, and Outlaw all eager to take those shots? Or am I wrong?

In anticipation of the coming pre-season and acknowledging the countless days and weeks and months of build towards said anticipation... and in further recognition of the fact that said anticipation can lead to overreaction leading to utter stupidity on the part of Phizbin... and stipulating the fact that neither wild horses, economic collapse, or sundry political debates will prevent Phizbin from watching pre-season games, he vows the following:

1. He will avoid minute mathematical calculations regarding minutes played, refrain from making any sort of minute-per-stat projections, or otherwise guessing at the mindset of Nate McMillan due to minutes played by any player.
2. No matter how many times Jerryd Bayless may inadvertently step out of bounds with the ball, he will not not project repressed hostility and dismay over Jarrett Jack onto this rookie.
3. If Sergio makes fifteen jump shots in a row, he will avoid proclaiming him a great offensive talent--he will also avoid fainting in surprise
4. If Sergio misses his first five jump shots on a flat trajectory, he will not immediately announce Sergio's worthlessness--he will avoid reading various "I told you so" posts
5. Should Oden foul out of every single game in 11 minutes played, he will not begin contemplating trades, make judgments about Oden's lateral speed, nor decry the game Dance, Dance Revolution... he will recall that every rookie center fouls out; that's what Joel's for
6. If Blake never sees the court in pre-season, he will not anticipate a season of Sergio as the starter. No matter what happens in pre-season, Blake = goodness
7. If Martell averages 1-2 in 28 minutes with 0.5 rebounds he will not call for Travis, Rudy, Roy, Channing, Diogu, Stephen Hill or Dean Demopolous to start at small forward; Martell deserves a final chance but the pre-season is not it
8. He will not groan if Outlaw launches shot within 2 seconds of touching the ball every single time; a green light in pre-season is like permission to kiss the bride on the cheek at the wedding reception, not that big a deal (unless it's MY shot or MY wife)
9. He will not call Rudy a bust if he doesn't dunk over every opposing center at least once in each game... he can dunk the ball, he doesn't need to prove it to your numbskull head all over again
10. He will not complain about Joel's lack of minutes in the pre-season even if the team collects zero contested defensive rebounds
11. He will not pour over fast-break point statistics as if searching for the secret of life itself nor make conclusions about Nate's offensive genius based upon same
12. Should LaMarcus score zero points in the paint and instead rain in jump shots, he will not immediately call for a reorganization of the team's offense; he will ignore Blazer broadcasters who might insist LMA needs to play "down low" more

In summary, Phizbin vows to essentially regard the pre-season as statistically meaningless and strategically unhelpful. He will enjoy the games but base no future predictions or current assessments on how the games are played, who wins, or who plays. He vows to await the season patiently and regard the coming weeks as mere appetizers.

In violation of the above, he is to turn in his Bedge card to Fatty... if he can be found. This I solemnly do swear,

Phizbin

I just got done listening to Casey and JQ talk during their chat. (I feel privileged, btw, to be out here in the wasteland of masochistic Cubs-fans and get good Blazer press... thanks to those guys and this blog and everyone else who make that work.)

If you have the stamina to make it to the very end, you hear JQ say this (paraphrasing): "Nate McMillan has taken a lot of heat over the years for his playing decisions [in reference to doling out minutes]. I think he's going to be under intense scrutiny this year... people are going to want to see more Rudy, they're going to want to see more Bayless. He's going to be under enormous scrutiny like never before. And let me tell you something about Nate: he can get very, very, very, very, very defensive when questioned about his decisions."

I, of course, have been one of those people wondering about the minutes in 05/06 (not so much last year) for Surge and at various points for Joel. I've sure we've all seen some of that defensiveness coming from Nate.

Since that time, I've come to the (to me, bad--but to all of you, very, very good) realization that Nate made better choices than me. In short: he was mostly right and me not. But that apology was on another post.

What I wanted to comment about this year was this notion of JQ's: I think he's right. I think Nate is going to be under the most intense and extreme kinds of psychological pressures this year. Consider:

1. Every time we (and here, I mean Bedgers and the greater Portalnd area together) chant in idolatrous adulation: "In KP we trust"... what are we saying? What is Nate HEARING?" I suggest he's hearing: hey, KP put this team together, PA bankrolled it, the community went crazy over it with parades and blogs and ticket sales... are YOU--Nate--going to be the one to blow it?
2. Nate's the annointed point guard man. We've had nothing but point guard problems. He's the annointed defensive-minded coach. This team has been getting routinely beaten on perimeter defense and losing rebounding margins. I'm not hear to rehash the reasons for all this (see the last 5,387 blog fanposts) but rather suggest what Nate is HEARING: this team is failing in precisely those areas that Nate is supposed to be an expert in.
3. We have all this talent. Everyone says so. EVERYONE... including that caffeinated bag of musty air Stephen A. We got rookie of the year! We got Oden! We got Euro MVP! We got LMA! What is Nate hearing: he's hearing every one of those pundits that used to criticize Phil Jackson when they said ANYone could've coached Pippen and Jordan to the finals.

The Bedgers are a community that watches things like coaches comments and interviews very closely. We should watch Nate very closely. He's going to be subjected to inhuman pressure from second-guessing precisely because this team is set up so very well. It's going to be even worse because the first part of the season is going to be so brutal. So we should watch Nate: watch for the defensivenes, the sleeplessness, the guarded statements... anything that looks like he's closing down. It will ultimately have an effect because I think it'll take some kind of superhuman to make it through. For all the Joel agitators and Surge ManCrushers out there last year... it's going to many, many times worse this year.

I'm not sure anyone can get through this unscathed. What will Nate be at the end of the season? Particularly if the Blazers don't finish well? I have a feeling most blogs will be calling for his head saying precisely these things: Anyone ELSE could've won with this talent... ANY moron would've known to start Rudy...

And there's Nate himself and the need to learn. There's a fascinating poem entitled "Paracelsus" by Robert Browning (yeah, I went to English Grad school for a while... go ahead and call me a nerd and get on with your own sad, illiterate life if you think that ain't cool). The poem has these people who have been at work sculpting on an island (as I recall) and they think there stuff is really, really hot (I would say "superlative" but I think "hot" translates better for you ADD Generation Y Paris Hilton followers). Then they come to see true art... and they realize that their stuff is, in actually, second rate. But they refuse to leave their island or do anything about it. Instead they say,

"We did not have the heart to mar our work."

That's the essence of learning. Will Nate--being pushed to the full brink of defensiveness from second-gussing from the Mass Couch Potato Public--have "the heart" to see better ways should they exist in first place.

I almost call this the "no-win-scenario" (with nods to The Wrath of Kahn, which should verify my nerd card for anyone keeping track at home).

Let me confess on the outset: I was a confirmed Surge Man-Crush guy at the beginning of the season. I was thrilled every time Nate put him in, cringed every time he made a turnover, and (amazingly enough) optimistic when he hoisted his "arcing" jump shot.

Then, as we famously know, things fell apart. He clearly was not the PG we thought he was in '06-'07. Still not sure what happened to the guy.

The reason I wanted to post was this. There were Surge Skeptics and JJ Defenders all through the season: notably Dave of BE. They were mostly correct in their assessment. Now, as I read the subtext from Dave and Quick and Freeman and others about Pteri, I see--as a great steaming, smelly, turd in the pristine white linoleum floor--another controversey brewing with Finnish.

Is it the case that all Surge loverse will simply move their affection over to Finnish?

And why would they want to do that? I offer the following four reasons in reverse order of plausibility.

• Race thing. Look, I know it's out there whether it's subconsciously or consciously. I suppose many could plausibly argue that our largely white fanbase is predisposed to like a white PG. Look, I don't give much credence to its merit but I also know I'm manifestly unqualified to comment on it. So I just want to stipulate it and move on to items that I think are more interesting. I do note, for the record, that there aren't a lot of Steve Blake man-crushes going on, though lots of respect. I personally think there are much different dynamics going on.
• The Flashy Pass. I think advanced basketball statistics is beginning to corroborate fans' intuition: the aggressive and risky pass--in the aggregate--is more valuable than the risk of the turnover. And, even better, it's exciting!! We see it in Surge just like we saw it in Jason Williams, all the Streetballers on ESPN2, and--we Finnish lovers hope--Finnish himself. We have dreams of a sleeker version of Magic Johnson dishing out the dimes with Stocktonesque reliability.
• The Pritchard Investment. Just like we want to get in on the ground floor of investment opportunities, we want to see one of KP's late-round guesses turn out to be a dot-com style success. If Finnish or Surge really did become the "most awesomest" PG ever, wouldn't that be the greatest Pritch-slap of all time? And what a great return for us! We hope for Finnish and Surge for the same reasons we hope for our 401(k)s and lottery tickets.
• Euro-Love. It's sort of cool--if we can't have a hometown boy like Brandon Roy--to have someone from an exotic location. It is cool to have a couple of Spaniards on the team. It would be cool to have a Fin on the team. I think one of the great things about our country is--for the most part--we embrace the notion of immigration (anti-globalization advocates, border police and other populists, please step aside with your political yammering for the moment). We liked having a Russian and a Korean on the time. We are wildly in love with the notion of the Portland Trailblazers becoming an international obsession in foreign lands. It helps us connect with them. I think I want these guys to succeed moreso than a Jarrett Jack or a Jerryd Blayless is simply because I like to think of meeting fellow Blazer fans on the Riviera someday (or, more likely, Las Vegas). This is really kind of a cool concept.

When we get down to it, who we decide to cheer for in a sports team has a lot to do with where we grew up. Just like your religion, you're trained to adore a certain team. But the way in which you adore that team says a lot. For Surge- and Finnish-Man-Crushers, I think one of the main reasons we cheer for these players' success has some to do with basketball but a great lot to do with a dinstinctly American kind of spirit. That we can take these guys from other places and--given a strong work ethic--they can succeed in ways impossible in other parts of the world. That's really a cool thing.

So, as I see journalists approach the season with trepidation of revisiting the old PG controverseys that will now swirl around Finnish, Surge, Blayless, and Blake, I'm going to unabashely cheer for my Euros. I want them to do well. And I'm not going to be ashamed to cheer for Euros who want to come here and play for an American team that represents my home town. Their success will mean more to me, for that reason, than the success of otherwise identical players.

I think one of the true identifying characteristics of a Blazer fanatic is an unholy fascination with the summer league. Count me in, because I'm sitting here trying to uncover all the summer league data I can find.

Saw something I thought was interesting and wanted to question the Bedge inteligentsia about it.

Look at the age of the "rookies" on the summer league roster:

• Morris Finley, 26
• Eddy Fobbs, 27
• David Lucas, 26
• Brandon Robinson, 27
• Joe Stefansson, 26 (from Iceland)

There are some other older guys as well but they're about 3yrs into their "career." I thought it was interesting that there are these guys in their mid-late twenties "starting" on their NBA career.

Anybody have any insight on what appears to me to be the fringe group of NBA players? How do they get on a summer league roster? What hopes do they have of "making it"? Etc.?

As a middle-aged guy trying like hell to keep up with local gym rates and savor the last few years of basketbal playing prowess I've got, I'm going to find myself cheering for these guys in the summer league.