SB Nation User Blog: PhoenixPhilly

Happ to be promoted?

PhoenixPhilly — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 04:18:17 -0000

J.A. Happ was pulled after 2.2 yesterday. Nick Fierro is reporting that Happ will be promted and Eaton will be released or reassigned.

http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/nick...npigs_for.html

I guess the question now (assuming this is true) would be if Happ will be starting or going to the bullpen. I would assume he is going to the bullpen, however I imagine there is some chance that he could be inserted into the rotation and Myers could go to the pen, although I doubt it.

Peoria v. Peoria

PhoenixPhilly — Sat, 13 Oct 2007 15:04:16 -0000

Our Saguaros took on the Javelinas Friday afternoon and lost 8-3. Tommy Lasorda was present at the game, causing the autograph hounds to salivate. Scouts abounded and Tuffy Gosewich received a great deal of fanfare, being an ASU alum.

Tuffy, in fact, produced the most exciting results for Phillies fans. He threw out 2 of 5 runners during the game. He actually dropped the ball on his first attempt, had no chance on one attempt, and had a very close call go against him on another. He put the ball right on the bag on all four of his throws. At the plate, he went 2-4 hitting the ball hard both times. That being said, it's difficult to have any expectations for a college graduate who hasn't left A-level ball in 2 years and a short season and an OBP of barely over 300.

Golson went 1 for 5 with a run. Golson has been hitting the ball hard and did just turn 22. I can not, however, see him making the majors unless he improves his strike zone discipline. He has an OBP of .304 in the minor leagues and in Reading last year struck out 49 times versus only 2 walks. He does not have a history of improving his discipline at lower levels, either. In 40 games in Clearwater in 2006 he had 53 Ks to 11 BBs. In 99 games in Clearwater in 2007 he had 124Ks to 21 BBs, while his slugging actually dipped.

Costanzo continued a horrible start to his AFL season, going 0-4 with a walk. He is hitting below .100 thus far. I had a chance to sit in the front row right next to the 3rd base/Saguaros dugout. Let me tell you, Mike Costanzo does not strike me as the type of guy you would want your sister to go out with. He has a heavy beard and a mini-mullet. His look is sneering and he's in a slump.

Patrick Overholt was the only Phillies pitcher to see action on Friday. He pitched well in his first inning, not allowing a ball to leave the infield and suffering some bad defense. He was absolutely rocked in his second inning of work allowing a trio of liners into the gaps. He was throwing a hard fastball and sinker, which would seem to be a good combination for a future bullpen arm, being able to keep the ball on the ground. His location was off and when he was up, he got hit. If he could keep the ball down and/or add an offspeed pitch, he might be okay.

Joe Savery starts tonight and I hope to catch the first 3 innings of the game.

Editor's Note: Courtesy of PhoenixPhilly, here are some photos of the Phillies representatives on the Saguaros in action. Hopefully he can fill us in on precisely who is doing what in the photos!

Mike Costanzo getting ready for a grounder at third.

Greg Golson hitting a line drive. (His time to first is 4 sec. flat from the right side!)

Tuffy taking a walking lead from third.

Costanzo and his LONG swing.

Poll

Would you allow your sister to date Mike Costanzo?

Yes

0 votes

No

3 votes

Only if he gave me free tickets to Phillies games

8 votes

11 votes | Poll has closed

First Arizona Fall League Diary

PhoenixPhilly — Fri, 12 Oct 2007 02:01:19 -0000

Time for another exciting Arizona Fall League Season. We've got John Russell managing the team, another year of Joe Bisenius and a guy named Tuffy catching. Someone tell me this is not more exciting than being in the playoffs.

The Phillies prospects will once again be playing for the Peoria Saguaros. Just like last year they are paired with the Padres, but have exchanged the Yankees, Nationals and Cardinals for the Marlins, Dodgers and Tigers.

Here are the players the Phils sent to Arizona this year, followed by their age and level last year:
Joseph Bisenius, 24, AA
Josh Outman, 23, AA
Patrick Overholt, 23, AA
Joe Savery, 22, A - Williamsport
Tuffy Gosewich, 24, A - Lakewood
Michael Costanzo, 24, AA
Greg Golson, 22, AA

Obviously Savery, Outman, Golson and Costanzo are the big names here, which is pretty dissapointing. Golson is young, but had a K/BB ratio of 20/1. He has all the tools you could ask for but needs a lot of work. Costanzo has a very long swing and is not much help in the field. He has good size and power. (Didn't they say the same about Burrell?) Savery has a pretty good ceiling with an injury history and Outman is rated very high in all the rankings I have seen.

The Saguaros are 2-1 and I'll have more info for you all after I talk to some of the scouts at the next game.

A further case made for six starters

PhoenixPhilly — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 01:50:12 -0000

[editor's note, by dajafi] Promoted from the diaries--great info on rotation attrition, in addition to a solid case for keeping Lieber.

This diary a mutt. It contains some part new information, some part response to the logic of my last diary set and some part attempt to reframe debate. It's an ugly mutt, but I think after you read it, you'll love it. Just like a Pug.

In response to the idea of keeping 6 starters and specifically not trading Jon Lieber, there have been several responses. I'll list them in what I believe to be their level of merit:

1)    We could get a lot for him in a trade.
2)    Our AAA prospects are strong.
3)    FA starters would not want to come here.
4)    Number 5 starters are "largely superfluous".

We could get a lot for him in a trade. I agree. If we can get a good deal, we should take it. But to clarify, we shouldn't get players back that we could have signed as free agents. Why trade for a RF when we might sign Huff, who can also play some third? Let's see who we can sign in the FA market first, then we'll have a better idea of what we still need. Teams will still need pitching after the FA sorts itself out. I'm not going to get into when is the best time to trade him. Who knows? We all have different opinions and little hard data to back them up.

Our AAA prospects are strong. No argument here. This is the best crop of AAA guys we have had since I can remember. I also think it is important to get guys some starts to get them used to the level of play in the majors. However... having "legitimate" prospects doesn't mean that they will necessarily be better. There is a higher chance that they will be better, but what it does mean is that they will get a longer look in the majors. This created the Floyd and Mathieson situations, where, even though they weren't pitching well in the majors they continued to be able to start. Sticking with pitchers too long is what killed the Phillies in the past. It wasn't Brito and Bernero that killed the Phillies last year, it was Floyd and Madson. These were top prospects. Giving prospects time to adjust to the majors is fine, but it will usually hurt your team in the short run.

FA starters would not want to come here. Very good point and one I didn't think of. This would ONLY be the case, though, if Lieber actually spends significant time in the pen. I believe that this diary will show those chances are small. If that does happen, and if having 6 starters every year becomes organizational policy, this could be true. But as June Carter said to Johnny Cash, "there are a lot of ifs in that sentence."

Number 5 starters are "largely superfluous". I think superfluous is a strong word. I understand the point that your worst starter will be skipped sometimes if there is an opportunity to do so and more so towards the end of the season. Where I strongly disagree is with this numbering of the starters as some magical system of ranking your pitchers. I think it is of much more use to commentators and writers. You need someone to start every game of the season. It doesn't matter whether that person is a #1 or a #5, a callup, a bullpen guy or comes from a trade. Also, saying that a #5 guy never starts a playoff game is a logical requisite. Of course you are always going to start your best 3 or 4 guys in the playoffs, so a #5 will never pitch a playoff game. The point of my first article was that you don't know who will get hurt or when, only that the majority of your staff will miss some time. The #5 or #6 guy at the beginning of the season may be your number 2 during the playoffs because of injuries, others not pitching to expectations or some pitchers pitching over expectations. How about the Mets or Yankees last year?

Okay, here is the new information. I took BRich's idea and did some further research on how other team's starting rotations have worked out. I did not do this for the last 5 years though, I only did the last 3 and only the NL East. The reason is that I had to do more than just data mining. I wanted to find out who was starting games (#1-#5, bullpen guys, guys aquired via trade or in season FAs, callups or guys who started the year on the injured list). Breaking this down for each team over the last 5 years was much too much for me, so I used the team's I'm most familiar with and I did it for 2004-2006. Here is what I found in the NL East over the last 3 years:

The average number of starts coming from the opening day 5-man rotation was 113.5.
102 in 2006
119 in 2005
120 in 2004

The average ERA for starters was 4.34. (TSE)
4.81 in 2006
3.89 in 2005
4.31 in 2004

The average number of starters used was 11.
11.5 in 2006
10 in 2005
11.5 in 2004

Next, I evaluated the effectiveness of the 4 other types of pitchers who started games (Bullpen, Callups, New Acquisitions and ILs). To do this, I used a basic method of determining whether these pitchers raised or lowered their TSE. (I know I'm no Bill James).

11 different guys who started the year on the IL (and who would have been in the top five if not for their injury) started games for their teams.
10 raised TSE
1 lowered TSE

47 different callups started games for their teams.
31 raised TSE
16 lowered TSE.

20 different bullpen arms started games for their teams.
13 raised TSE
7 lowered TSE

10 different new aquistions (in season FAs or trades) started games for their teams.
5 raised TSE
5 lowered TSE

Noting the somewhat small sample size, I won't make any overarching generalizations about what this information says. A lot of this data points towards what one would already assume. Callup guys are generally not going to be as good as your original starting five. The question is more how much they hurt you. To answer that, I would need to spend even more time that I don't want to. We could look at the projections of the AAA guys for a starting point.

Trades seem to be the best way to go to get an in-season starter. In season FAs were there for a reason. I guess Roger Clemens would be the exception to that rule. Bullpen arms are a mixed bag. When taking into account their flimsy IP, they are generally not a good long-term solution. You really have to look at whether they were a starter or not before. When I eyeball the situation, it seems that guys who were in the bullpen who were formerly starters have done relatively well. The Braves are good at this.

The most important information is that the average number of starts made by the opening day starting five is 113.5. Let's round it to 114. That means you will need 48 starts from guys who were not in the original starting five. There is enough space for full season from an "extra" starter in there. It would depend on when the injuries happened, but I think you could say that if he stayed, Lieber could get 25 starts.

The Phillies staff seems to be more injury prone than most with two guys with bad injury histories (Eaton and Hamels) and one guy who is older than dirt for a baseball player (Moyer). Garcia and Myers have good injury histories. The most starts that a NL East team has gotten from its starting five in the last three years was 137 by the Braves in 2004. They only had 6 starts from callups (Cappelan and Smith, both top prospects who raised the team's ERA) and 19 starts from Paul Byrd, who was injured to start the year. They had Horacio Ramirez as their #5 to start the year. He was injured early in the year. If you are looking for a situation similar to the 2007 projected situation, this would be the best case scenario for the Phillies in 2007. It would involve keeping Lieber, only one of the starters going down and one of the "extra" guys filling in admirably.

A lot of this is window dressing, so let's get down to brass tacks. The choice comes down to this: Would you rather have Jon Lieber for a potential 25 starts, 10 games in relief, available for the playoffs and the compensation that comes with him being a A or B Free Agent OR Would you rather have what he would bring in a trade?

Another question would be: If the Phillies still had six guys going into Spring Training, signed Huff, but no big bullpen names and one starter went down (let's say that starter would miss at least the first month of the season), would you still advocate for trading Lieber?

A Plea for 6 Starters - Part II

PhoenixPhilly — Wed, 06 Dec 2006 22:53:30 -0000

For those of you who say that we should have five starters and then act when and if one of them gets hurt, I present to you the fictional wives of our 5 starters. Again, these are fictional wives! They represent the likelihood of each player making the weekly poker game and also are a reflection of how well they will play when at the table.

Brett Myers' wife is probably the best bet to allow her husband free reign to attend the weekly poker game. He makes almost every game (30+ GS for 4 years) and is now considered the best player at the table.

Jamie Moyer's wife is the second best bet to allow Jamie to play poker on a regular basis. Early in your friendship with Jamie, his wife was straight nuts. You didn't know when he would come out and how he would play. But, since they moved to Seattle together, he's been a sure bet to come to the weekly game (6+ seasons of 30+ GS). She is approaching menopause, which will put him out of commission soon. You hope it won't set in this year or next.

Jon Lieber has had an interesting marriage. He had a major fight with his wife in late 2002 that kept him out of the game until 2004. Sometimes, having a fight like that is good for a marriage and your buddy is even more fun when they straighten things out. In Jon's case, however, he has chosen to deal with his relationship problems by overeating. The question now is whether he can spend the time it will take with his wife to work out their issues or whether he will take the easy way out, let her nag him and stuff his face with ice cream to mask the problem. Since he's been playing in your game, he's been a good player for the big money rounds late in the evening. (Best ERA in Aug-Oct)

You don't really know Adam Eaton's wife that well. He was your friend in high school and then he moved away and got married. He just moved back to the area, so you invited him to be a part of your weekly game. You have mutual friends that tell you that he has been an erratic participant in his San Diego game. His play has been inconsistent as well. One week he'll win it all and the next he'll be the first one out. You brought him into your game more for his future potential than his past success. (#2 & #3 comps through age 28 are Westbrook and Schmidt and his #1 comp is your friend Brett Myers)

Cole Hamels wife is HOT! In fact, she may be the hottest woman you have ever seen. She has it all, looks, personality and money. You met her last year when Cole first started to come to the games and fell in love. As for Cole, he always brings beer, bets and wins a lot and is only getting better. What has you worried is Cole's stories about his wife's personality in high school and college. Evidently, she was a total psycho bitch. She would always be calling him, yelling and accusing him of cheating. He missed a lot of weekly poker games with his old friends back then. How often does a girl like that change into an angel?

The chances of these five guys all making the game every week seem pretty small to me. You know there is NO doubt that they won't ALL make it EVERY week. But for that, a few of the guys have brothers they can invite and you think they might be okay to fill in for a week. Even if they don't play really well, it will be good for them to get out of the house. You can see if they can play and they can learn a bit from the old pros. Basically, every one of the players has a younger brother they can invite (Justin, Gavin, J.A., Zack and Eude).

What has you excited (in a non-homoerotic way) is that you heard that there is a pretty darn good poker player that might move to your town. He makes the game almost every week (7/8 years of 30+ GS) and plays great in big-money games (6-2, 3.11 postseason). The thing is that (now I'm reaching) one of your friend's brothers really hates him, so you would have to cut ties with him (Gavin). You like Gavin's game, but he has let you down in the past and you're not sure if he'll ever get his act together. You would also have to get rid of the wings that everyone munches on in order to make room for this new guy. You have to have food at the game, but you think you can get some different and maybe even better food at the store before the next game.

With this guy, you are pretty sure you will always have 5 guys at the table. You may have 6 some games, but with the wives you are dealing with, that is doubtful. It's more likely you'll still have to have a buddy call their brother some weeks in order just to have a fifth. The question is, can you find more food and another lamp (reliever) before your next game? After all, good friends are really hard to come by these days. Especially those with cool wives. But then again, how would poker be when you can't see the cards and are hungry the whole game?

A Plea for 6 Starters - Part I

PhoenixPhilly — Wed, 06 Dec 2006 22:49:34 -0000

Starting pitchers are like your friends with wives (or serious girlfriends). When you invite them over for poker, they always have to check with their wife first. You know you have that friend that everyone likes to hang out with but his wife always keeps him from hanging out with the guys. It's tempting to plan a night of poker with 5 friends. What a great time you'll all have drinking beer, farting without fear and making fun of each other. But what happens when Mike calls and says his wife has planned a night at the theatre?

Well, poker with 4 people just isn't the same. You need five to have a good game. Someone is bound to go out early and then you have the guy who only plays the good hands and you are left with the same two guys betting against each other every hand.

So, back to Mike. Well, now you only have 4 guys to play poker and you don't want to do that. So, you have two options: you can call your younger brother or you can call your boss who has been asking about getting in on the game. Either way you are taking a chance. Maybe your younger brother just isn't mature enough to hang out with the guys, gets too drunk and makes a fool out of himself. You'd like to bring him into your group, but it may be too soon. He needs to get that college life behind him first. Your boss has been cool ever since you met him and you're pretty sure he will fit in well. But he will pose some problems. Your little brother might get pissed that you didn't invite him. You have to watch what you say around your boss as well, or you could create major problems at work. And as much as you think your boss would fit in, he only drinks bottled beer from Belgium.

Now, what if you had six friends in your crew and you invited them all? Six is one too many to play poker, though. It takes too long, someone always takes forever to bet and that makes the other guys mad. But what are the chances that everyone would come every week? The chances are better that most nights 5 guys will come. Some nights all six will come and some only four will come. But most of the time, five guys will be there. What makes me say that all six won't come? Because you can never count on guys with wives! To bring it back to baseball, here are the Phillies' starting pitching stats for the last 5 years, including our start of the season rotation (original 5 friends) and trades (boss). The rest of the starting pitchers we used were callups or bullpen arms (you and your friends' little brothers*).

2006 GS & ERA (as starter)
Myers 31 3.91
Lieber 27 4.93
Hamels 23 4.08
Lidle 21 4.74
Madson 17 6.28
Wolf 12 5.56
Floyd 11 7.29*
Mathieson 8 8.27*
Moyer 8 4.03
Brito 2 10.38*
Bernero 1 36.00*
Fultz 1 16.20*

Team Starter's ERA 5.08 (14)
4th most innings pitched (921), most runs allowed in NL (569)

We started 2006 with a rotation of Myers, Lieber, Lidle, Hamels & Madson
We traded for Moyer and traded away Lidle.

2005 GS & ERA (as starter)
Lieber 35 4.30
Myers 34 3.72
Lidle 31 4.53
Padilla 27 4.71
Tejeda 13 2.87*
Wolf 13 4.39
Brito 5 3.80*
Floyd 4 6.75

2005 team starter's ERA 4.20 (9)
10 in IP (957)

We started 2005 with a rotation of Lieber, Myers, Wolf, Lidle & Floyd. Padilla on DL.
We made no trades for starting pitchers.

2004 GS & ERA (as starter)

Milton 34 4.75
Myers 31 5.50
Millwood 25 4.85
Wolf 23 4.28
Padilla 20 4.53
Lidle 10 3.90
Abbott 10 6.24
Floyd 4 3.80*
Powell 2 4.15*
Hancock 2 11.57*
Madson 1 81.00*

2004 team starter's ERA 4.91 (13)
10 in IP (922)

We started 2004 with a rotation of Millwood, Wolf, Milton, Padilla & Myers.
We traded for Lidle and picked up Abbott as an in-season FA.

2003 GS & ERA (as starter)
Millwood 35 4.01
Padilla 32 3.62
Wolf 33 4.23
Myers 32 4.43
Duckworth 18 5.04
Telemaco 8 3.97*
Roa 3 7.50*
Silva 1 6.75*

2003 team starter's ERA 4.20 (8)
8 in IP(969)

We started 2003 with a rotation of Millwood, Padilla, Wolf, Myers & Duckworth.
We didn't trade for a starter.

2002 GS & team starter's ERA
Padilla 32 3.28
Wolf 31 3.20
Duckworth 29 5.42
Adams 19 5.00
Person 16 5.44
Myers 12 4.25*
Roa 11 4.22*
Coggin 7 8.13*
Mercado 3 3.55*
Junge 1 0.00*
Timlin 1 couldn't find*

2002 team starter's ERA 4.28 (10)
8 in IP(949)

We started 2002 with a rotation of Person, Wolf, Padilla, Duckworth & Adams.
We didn't trade for any starters in season.

What we can see from these stats is a correlation between the number of guys brought up from the minors and the starting pitchers cumulative ERA. The more guys we bring up, the higher the ERA for the starters. 2002 would be the exception to this rule. Both Myers and Joe Roa came up and pitched very well. It is very hard to predict, however, who will come up from the minors and pitch well.

In 2003, a lot was expected from Duckworth and not as much from Telemaco. In 2004, Floyd and Madson had some expectations while Hancock and Powell didn't. Same for Floyd in 2005 with less expected from Tejeda. In 2006, big prospects Floyd & Matheison were brought up while Brito and Bernero were brought up with little fanfare. You just can't tell who will do well.

Each year, there is a pitcher who is brought up for a few (3-5) spot starts:
2002 with Mercado, 3 @ 3.55
2003 with Roa, 3 @ 7.50
2004 with Floyd, 4 @ 3.80
2005 with Brito, 5 @ 3.80
2006 with Brito/Bernero, 3 @ 10+

Candidates for this role in 2007 (in order of my preference) would be Germano, Floyd, Happ, Segovia and Brito.

We have obtained 3 starting pitchers via in-season trade or release in the last 5 years (Lidle, Abbott, Moyer). Lidle and Moyer worked out well while Abbott busted. This gives us some reason to believe that the team can find a quality starter before the trading deadline if necessary.

Back to what we know based on 5 years data... Bringing up less guys from the minors equals a better ERA for the starting pitchers, both in real numbers and in comparison to the rest of the league. We can also look at Games Started the last five years for additional guidance.

Games started by our opening day rotation by year:
2002 (32, 31, 29, 19, 16) 4.28 (10th)
2003 (35, 33, 33, 32, 18) 4.20 (8th)
2004 (34, 31, 25, 21, 20) 4.91 (13th)
2005 (35, 34, 31, 27, 13) 4.20 (9th)*
2006 (31, 27, 23, 21, 17) 5.08 (14th)

* I used Padilla as a starter instead of Floyd, since Padilla was on the DL at the start of the year, but expected to be part of the regular rotation.

In the best two years of 2003 and 2005, we got 33 or more and 31 or more starts, respectively, from our top three pitchers. In those years also, the starter with the fourth most starts had more than the starter with the third most starts in 2004 and 2006. The number of starts for our number 5 guy is not an accurate predictor of the teams starting ERA. When we have 4 of our top 5 guys starting a lot of games, we do well.

I see the strongest correlation between the 5 starters we have now and the 5 starters we had in 2004. Both years we had 4 guys coming back from good seasons as well as a FA back-end starter (although Milton was more of an innings-eater than Eaton). Even in a year where we were more confident in the 5 starters we had (2004), we still had to trade for 2 starters. My question would be if you knew what was going to happen in 2004, and you had Lidle to start the year, would you have traded him before the season started or kept him as a hedge against injuries?

I submit that in order to have 4 quality starters who pitch 27 games or more, we need 6 quality starters to begin the season.

End of Year AFL Report (Part I)

PhoenixPhilly — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 21:16:26 -0000

[Editor's note: Moved from the diaries. Thanks PhoenixPhilly for these great AFL reports over the past month!]

The Saguaros won their last game of the year, 5-0.

Here are some links for you faithful readers:

Boxes, logs and recaps of all Saguaros games this year.
Final Stat Page
Phillies Organizational report (Jonathan Mayo)
Gonzalez interview

Gio Gonzalez performed interviews with Mayo throughout the AFL season. I could only find the most recent one, however.

Both Gio Gonzalez and Kyle Kendrick pitched yesterday. Gonzalez struggled with his control, but did not allow a run and only allowed two hits. He was visibly frustrated with his lack of command. Kendrick pitched an inning and a third, allowing one hit and no runs with a K.

For now, I will provide a short analysis for each AFLer. Later, I may comment on some of the other good players I saw in the games I attended. If anyone has the time, I recommend watching the AFL final on MLB.tv on Saturday 1pm MST. Lots of potential future stars there such as McBeth, Zobrist, Yates and Tulowitzki.

Jason Jaramillo: Jaramillo has 3 years of playing experience at the A and AA level (6 ABs at AAA). He should start 2007 in AAA. He is also the best option to be called up during the season if there is an injury. He just turned 24. His AFL season was a huge success. Jaramillo finished the season with an OPS of 1.027, the only player on the team with an OPS over 1 and one of the few players in the league to do so. He also had 9 BBs and 11Ks. As I have said before, I believe that as his plate discipline improves, his other stats will follow. He is a line drive hitter with limited power. I wouldn't ever expect him to hit more than 20 HR in a season. The switch hitting catcher also appeared to work well with pitchers, for whatever that is worth.

Projection: League average everyday catcher.

Joe Bisenius: Bisenius also just turned 24 and has 3 years experience in A and AA. In fact, he pitched only 23 innings in Reading last year. He is currently on the AAA roster. The Phillies brass must want to push him a bit. He did average over a strikeout an inning last year, which is a good sign. After being rocked in his first outing, Bisenius left the team to recover from an abdominal pull. When returning, he threw four innings with 6 Ks, 3BBs and 1 hit. I didn't see him pitch. I would imagine that he'll get a spring training invite, but don't see a guy with only 23 innings of AA ball making the club.

Projection: Not enough information.

Gavin Floyd: What people tend to forget about Gavin Floyd is that he is only 22. He will turn 23 in January. He was the 4th pick in the 2001 draft. Remember when the Phillies used to always bring their guys along so slowly and the fans used to whine that they should be given a shot in the majors sooner? Well, Floyd was doing great in the minors: 02 in Lakewood, 03 in Clearwater and 04 in a half season in Reading. Then he was advanced to Scranton, did less than okay and was brought up to the big club. He pitched very well and became a starter in the majors in 05. He blew up and hasn't been the same since. This may have been one case when the Phillies "conventional wisdom" may have been correct. Anyway, he still has the arm to pitch in the big leagues. He was up and down this AFL season. What bothers me most is that he had only 14Ks in 19.1 IP. A guy with Major League experience and that curve should have more than that. Guys like Joey Devine, Lenny DiNardo, Patrick Misch, Billy Sadler, etc. all averaged more than a K/IP. They are generally similar to Floyd in that they were high (no lower than 7th round) draft picks that have at least cameoed in the majors. The scouts still love his stuff. I really think he is the prototypical change-of-scenery guy. I'm of the opinion that we should get what we can for him now.

Projection: Little ML success, out of baseball before he is 30. There are just too many guys with great stuff who haven't made it. Most of them, in fact.

Gio Gonzalez: What a pitcher! Gonzalez was the prize of the Thome trade (which will look very good if we can get a quality SP for Rowand). His numbers have been consistently good in the minors and he seems set to star in a potentially stacked Ottawa rotation. He just turned 21 and started the AFL all-star game. He is also a lefty with good movement on his pitches. The only negative that people see in him is his lack of size (5-11, 185). I wonder how many guys who read this board are about that size?

Projection: In rotation sometime in 2008. Tom Glavine if he stays that healthy.

I'll do Happ, Kendrick and Segovia later.

Rule 5 Draft

PhoenixPhilly — Tue, 14 Nov 2006 05:21:21 -0000

The Rule 5 Draft is held annually on the last day of baseball's winter meetings. This year it will be December 7th. The changes to the collective bargaining agreement allow for another year of protection for young players not on the 40 man roster. For an overview of Rule 5 Draft, go here and realize that the number of years that a player is protected has moved from 4 to 5 for those under 18 when they signed and 3 to 4 for those over 18 when they signed. For a list of all Rule 5 picks since 1998, see this. The most famous Rule 5 picks include Roberto Clemente, George Bell, Dan Uggla, Dan Kolb, Bobby Bonilla, Darrell Evans, Kelly Gruber, Mike Morgan, Scott Podsednik, Johan Santana and Derrick Turnbow (oops). Turnbow actually did not achieve success until he was picked up off waivers by the Brewers from the Angels (the team that rule 5 drafted him).

The Phillies have done rather well recently in the Rule 5 Draft. Fabio Castro was the number one draft pick last year by the Kansas City Royals. He was later traded to the Texas and then the Phillies for Dan Haigwood (the "other" pitcher in the Thome trade). The Phillies also picked up Chris Booker for cash. In 2004, the Phillies selected Shane Victorino, who was later offered back to the Dodgers, who refused him.

Here is my best thinking on who the Phillies will protect for the upcoming draft. First, a team has 40 spots on their aptly named 40-man roster. The Phillies, as of Monday, have only 30 players on their 40-man roster. Among those who are not protected and would be subject to being taken in the upcoming draft are Joe Thurston, Randall Simon, Jim Crowell, Dan Giese, Tim Gradoville, Brennan King, Seung Lee, and Travis Minix. These are the guys who I think teams may have any interest in drafting. Feel free to add someone if you think there is another prospect that deserves mention. I think the Phillies would be smart to protect Minix and Lee. Lee because of the price they paid for him and because he still may have potential and Minix because he could contribute to the bullpen.

Thurston and Simon were just outrighted to AAA, so they won't be protected. Gradoville was outrighted at the end of the season. I just don't see the Phillies being worried about losing Giese or King. Jim Crowell is a lefty with a good GO/AO ratio, so there is a good chance he will be taken if not protected. I'm not sure how they feel about Thurston.

Players who are NOT subject to the draft include Joe Bisenius, Gio Gonzalez, J.A. Happ, Jason Jaramillo, Kyle Kendrick (all the AFL guys minus Floyd). Basically everyone in A or below is safe as well. Everyone who was safe last year is again safe this year because of the change in the CBA.

Just because the Phillies have room on their roster does not necessarily mean they will be looking to draft someone. The type of player they will be looking for is someone who can contribute or be traded. I don't think they will be looking for a "project" that will need to be stashed on the 25 man roster. Also, being that the draft is early this year, their roster has much less shape than it has in years past and they will most likely not want to hamstring their efforts to find quality arms or bats by having one less spot. They also may draft a player for another team. Generally, Rule 5 picks are traded quickly after the draft, if they are going to be traded.

Saguaros Update

PhoenixPhilly — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 06:09:55 -0000

The Saguaros lost for the 6th time in 7 games today. The team now has the second worst record in the AFL. It is not looking likely that the Saguaros will make the playoffs this season.

Two Phillies contributed today (box). Jason Jaramillo went 2/6 with a run and a K. Chris Key contributed by protecting the warm up catcher from foul balls. He may have a future there, but not as a pitcher.

Jaramillo continues to impress me as well as the scouts (not that he gives two shakes what I think). He is solid behind the plate, providing a good target and throwing runners out when he has a chance. He has allowed some balls to pass by him, but I attribute that to working with different pitchers from different systems, all working on controlling one of their "lesser" pitches. He has good form when he blocks the ball, getting behind it with his body and he keeps runners close at first with some nice snap throws.

At the plate, he continues to show good strike zone judgment, fouling off pitches until he gets one he likes. On the season, he has 8 BB vs. 7 Ks. He does tend to swing at some bad pitches when he has two strikes, however. He doesn't have a great deal of power and likes to hit the ball where it is pitched. Jason is a line-drive double kind of guy. I envision him being a Lo Duca type. I'm not saying he will be that good, but I believe that is the type of hitter he is. He could hit second.

No Phillies played Tuesday, and the Saguaros won. Hmm.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

PhoenixPhilly — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 09:15:17 -0000

In that order...

Both Gavin Floyd and Zach Segovia pitched well on Saturday, despite a 3-1 Saguaros loss.

Floyd 4.0 IP, 1H, 2K, 0R, 6.35 ERA
Segovia 1.0 IP, 1H, 0R, 0.93 ERA

That's about all the good, unless you count the outstanding Polish Sausage at Hohokam Park.

Two Phillies pitchers threw in today's game (a 14-4 loss). The bad manifested itself in the person of Kyle Kendrick, who was just overmatched. He has never pitched above high A ball, even though he has been in the Phillies system since 2003. Kendrick throws a fastball at about 90, a slider at about 82 and a change at 80. They came back at his head faster than that, though. He was torched, allowing the longest HR I have seen yet this season.

Kendrick seems likely to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, since the Phillies shouldn't use a 40 man roster spot on him. The new CBA allows an extra year before Rule 5 exposure, so I'm not sure if he gets an extra year, or the rule goes into effect for the next draft.

The Ugly manifested itself in the person of Chris Key, a 29 year old minor league free agent who allowed a .311 BAA in 50 IP in Reading last year. I don't even want to talk about him. I think he will either be released or become an organizational minor league filler.

Jaramillo went 1/3 with a double, RBI and is hitting .308.

Notes: When I asked a scout how fast Kendrick was throwing, little did I know I was speaking to Jared Wells. I thought he was a former player, since he had a HUGE scar on his right leg, but then the autograph hounds came... I had an extremely brief conversation with the Phillies AFL pitching coordinator (Mike Ondo, maybe?) who confirmed that Segovia is done for the season in order to get married and Chris Key will take his place. It seems they have an extra roster spot to fill. Either I did not phrase the question well, or he just didn't want to tell me who will be filling it, or they won't fill it, but they seem to be at 6 players now...The Phillies official also said I was "very knowledgeable about the Phillies pitching prospects"...Another tidbit that a fellow fan let me in on is that Jaramillo told the Phillies that he is not ready for the majors yet when they offered him ML playing time. Anyone else hear this?...

Next game I attend should be Wednesday.