I don't know about the rest of you, but for me Dave's reminder that the glorious Blazersedge Jersey Contest does not start until November was a major gameday buzz kill. I had my Excel Spreedsheets, Stata 10.0, and favorite stat websites all set-up and ready to roll. But now I see that they'll have to sit idle for a couple more days... Arrrgh! What fun is a Blazers game if it does not provide me with the opportunity to prove that I am not as good at predicting the future as I think I am? What fun is the day after the game if I don't get to see how poorly other people--especially people that disagree with me--did in the Jersey Contest???

Fortunately, I decided that I should not spend the day sulking, wishing Blazersedge was different than it is. I decided that instead of being a victim, I should take action into my own hands!  I should create my own **** contest!! No, not my contest. Our contest. And it wont be for one game. It will be for the entire season! Take that, Dave. Ha-ha! Yes, a prediction contest for the results of the season. Perfect. It will take a lot of patience--it's for the Bedgers that know that they will be here April 15th, 2010, even if Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden all go down with season ending injuries today... But, it should be a fun way to test a different aspect of our prognostication skills... or..er... luck. 

Okay, great.... So, will there be a prize for this contest? Well, that's putting the cart before the horse. First, I need to figure out if the results will be scored. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees there. I'm pretty clever with inputting data, but I don't know how to create one of those cool submission forms (i.e. http://blazersedge.reaxion.org/gameform.php) and I may be incredibly busy in April. Perhaps a collective effort will get the job done? We'll just have to see. EDIT: That being said, I will probably be able to do it, so expect to see a post summarizing the scoring some time in April. Assuming the results are scored, then I'll gladly send a (cheap) Blazer-themed prize to honor the winner. If other s feel similarly compelled to reward greatness, perhaps resources can be pooled and the prize will be somewhat cool. EDIT: At the very least, the winner will be able to add, "I dominated Jscot in the Regular Season Prediction Contest!" to the signature of his or her posts. 

On to the questions. 

The Biggies

1. How many games will the Blazers win this season? (20 points possible, -2 points off for each win off)

2. Will the Blazers win the Northwest Division? (10 points)

Blazer Statistics. For all questions concerning season averages, the numerator will be the number of games that the player or players in question actually entered (not 82 games).

3. Which will be greater, (a) Kevin Durant's per game scoring average +3, or (b) Brandon Roy's per game scoring average? (2 points)

4. How many rebounds will Greg Oden average per game? (4 points possible, -1 point for each rebound off)

5. How many assists with Andre Miller average per game? (3 points possible, -1 point for each assist off)

6. Which will be greater, (a) LaMarcus Aldridge's rebounds per game+points per game, or (b) the sum of the per game scoring averages of Blake, Pryzbilla, Outlaw, and Batum? (2 points)

7. How many three pointers made per game will Rudy Fernandez average? (2 points possible, -1 for each .25 of a three pointer off)

8. How many games will Jerryd Bayless play (for the Blazers)? (2 points possible, -1 for every 5 games off)

9. What FG% will Jerrdy Bayless shoot (for the Blazers) ? (rounded to the nearest whole percentage, e.g. 36%, his projected FG% on espn.com. 2 points possible, -1 for every 3 percentage points off)

10. What FT% will Greg Oden shoot? (rounded to the nearest whole percentage, e.g. 64%, his projected FG% on espn.com. 2 points possible, -1 for every 2 percentage points off).

Over-Unders for Regular Season Wins. For the following questions, answer by saying whether the team's regular season win total will be over or under the number next to it. (2 points each)

Western Conference

11. LA Lakers 61.5

12. Denver Nuggets 52.5

13. Utah Jazz 49.5

14. Oklahoma City "Thunder" 34.5

15. Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5

16. Houston Rockets 35.5

17. San Antonio Spurs 54.5

18. Dallas Mavericks 49.5

19. Phoenix Suns 40.5

20. LA Clippers 34.5

Eastern Conference

21. Cleveland Cavs 61.5

22. Orlando Magic 58.5

23. Boston Celtics 58.5

24. Chicago Bulls 40.5

25. Toronto Raptors 40.5

26. Detroit Pistons 40.5

27. Indiana Pacers 34.5

28. New Jersey Nets 27.5

Miscellaneous (2 points each)

29. Will LeBron James win the MVP?

30. Will Dwight Howard win the defensive player of the year Award?

See my response below for the preferred answer format. The cleaner your entry, the more likely that it will actually be scored someday! 

Okay. That should help you waste a few minutes while waiting for tonights game. Good luck! 

When I think of the "first" basketball hoop, I have in mind a wicker basket that looks something like this:

Apparently, however, Dr. Naismith's first hoop wasn't really wicker, at least that's not how I would describe the basket in this photo:

via www.authenticbasketball.com

Continue reading this post »

With the release of the 2009-2010 NBA schedule yesterday, we saw the first wave of predictions for the upcoming season. In making predictions for the Blazers or any other team the first thing most people consider, whether explicitly or implicitly, is a team's record the previous season. The previous season serves as a baseline in our mind and then we try to figure out if the team will improve or get worse. By and large, this is a sensible way of thinking.

However, an additional consideration that should go into our thought process--but that we often forget--is a phenomenon called regression to the mean. Regression to the mean is a technical term in probability and statistics that refers to the fact that, left to themselves, things tend to return to normal, whatever that is. The term was coined by Francis Galton, inventor of the regression, when he noticed that the offspring of very tall parents tended to be shorter than their parents--at least that's the story they always tell in statistics classes. Regression to the mean in NBA wins would imply that teams that tend to win a lot of games in one season are more likely to win fewer games the following season, or conversely that teams that win few games in one season are more likely to win more games the following season. In other words, a 60 win team in 2009 is more likely to win 55-59 games than 60-64 in 2010, while a 25 win team in 2000 is more likely to win 26-30 games than 25-21 games in 2001. Does this happen in the NBA? Indeed it does. In fact, regression to the mean is quite pronounced and holds controlling for the average age of teams. Details below.

Continue reading this post »