Imagine you are an NBA coach and you just went through a losing season.  If you could only pick one area to improve, which one would you pick?  Improve = more wins

Turnovers/Fouls:  Decreasing your teams turnovers and personal fouls, getting to the free throw line more, and forcing more turnovers.

Defense:  Limit the other teams FGs, 3-pointers, assists, and rebounding.

Offense:  Increase FGs, 3-pointers, and assists.

Rebounding:  Increase offensive and defensive rebounds.

Given that the Los Angeles Clippers will receive Minnesota's first round pick in 2012 as part of the Cassell/Jaric trade, should Kahn be actively seeking a trade to acquire a 2012 1st rounder? Minnesota's first round pick is top-10 protected through 2011, but do we really expect the Wolves to pick higher than 10?  It is unprotected in 2012.  For the second worst team in the NBA, it is hard to imagine not having a high pick in 2012.

ORLANDO – The Minnesota Timberwolves are making plans to offer enigmatic center Darko Milicic a new multi-year contract this summer when he becomes a free agent, believing they can tap the potential that others saw but never could convert consistently.

Milicic, 24, joined the Wolves last month in a trade from the Knicks, the fourth team in the league to give up on him, despite having all the physical skills to be a productive NBA center.

At 7-0 and 245 pounds, Milicic has been labeled a bust since coming into the NBA with Detroit as the No. 2 pick in the 2003 Draft – ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh – but he may have found his NBA home in Minnesota.

Source

Continue reading this post »

I was bored today and ran a regression model (with a stepwise selection procedure) to see what team stats (season averages) were most associated with the number of NBA wins in a season.  I used data from the 2008-2009 regular season.

Outcome: Number of Wins
Variables considered:  FGA, FGM, FG%, 3PTA 3PTM, 3PT%, FTM, FTA, FT%, Total Rebounds, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds, Total Rebounds, Turnovers, Steals, Assists, Personal Fouls, Points


Final Model:

Predicted # of Wins = -41.22 +2.71*FGM - 4.02*FGA +0.60*3PTA +1.64*3PT%+5.32*TOTREB +1.82*AST-5.48*TO +7.11*STL

This simple model fits the data quite well, maybe too well (R-squared = 0.98).  My next step is to see what the model looks like using data from the previous 3-5 seasons. 

Applying the current 2009-2010 season stats to the above model, the Timberwolves
will win 1.28 games!  Ouch! For comparison, the Lakers will win 51.8 games.

The Wolves need a lot of help shooting the ball, dishing assists, and decreasing TOs.  Steals look great!