The Ronde van Vlaanderen is the greatest race in the world. It has everything that makes cycling exceptional: long distances, steep inclines, cobbles and echelons. It also is a race I believe requires the perfect blend of power, speed, tactics and team strength. After watching Devolder power away with the win on television in 2008, and then a year later in person on the Muur in 2009, I became obsessed with the role of team strength as a determining factor in who wins RVV.

But how do you determine team strength? Do you watch the race and come to a conclusion? This is what I do 99% of the time. But I’m not sure that is the most accurate way. When watching on television/computer, it’s hard to remove emotions, opinions and outright disdain for certain riders and tactics.

Baseball used to be my main sporting passion. And I was a massive believer in sabermetrics. So, I have attempted to develop a statistical analysis of the role team strength plays in determining the winner of RVV using the only objective cycling statistics there are: the results sheet.

And what does my analysis tell me? Put all your money on Alessandro Ballan in 2011.

 

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Earlier today, tgsgirl posted a fanpost based on a Pat McQuaid interview where he talks about new ideas for a Team Ranking system that takes into account not only the overall points earned, but also the "quality of the 15 best riders." Presumably, the "quality" would be determined by Pat and his friends.

In the same fanpost, tgsgirl took a funny shot at BMC. I laughed, but then thought, are BMC really a one-man-show? I think they are. I know tgsgirl thinks they are. But what do the maths says?

So, I hastily threw together a spreadsheet that looks at the three different ranking systems, all based on UCI's official rankings as of September 13, 2010. Big disclaimer. I know that the UCI rankings are ridiculous and in no way a good indicator to determine team strength. But, it is what is used, so let's not debate that aspect of this exercise. Here are the three ranking systems I analyzed.

1. The UCI's Team Rankings
2. The UCI's Team Rankings for only the Top 100 Riders
3. The UCI's Team Rankings for only the Top 100 Riders weighted to favor teams with multiple scorers

The goal of this exercise was to look at some of the factors that may go into Pat's decision on who he thinks the Top 17 teams are.

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Molly
Last seen at the foot of an enterprising journalist, Molly's spotlight has dimmed as her loyal domestique's spotlight has brightened. It will be interesting to see who steals the spotlight in this year's La Grande Boucle. I'm banking on a positive result from Molly. Cadel raced hard in Italy, and I'm not sure he has the legs to compete at a high level in July. If that's the case, BMC would be foolish to ride for a 10th place, and should throw all their support behind Molly, which will ensure the team at least remains in the headlines and on the front of some surprisingly nice looking t-shirts.

http://twitter.com/bradwiggins
The best post-race quotes can be found here in 144 characters or less. Whether he's attacking journalists, his fellow riders or mocking Cav, it's bound to be the second best spot on the internets, after the PdC.

Billdozer
Will he be back? Will it be under the same handle or an alias? PdC jaws dropped last year every time this infamous poster spread his seed of wisdom on a post-stage report. Part of me hopes he makes a return appearance.

Floyd Landis
The Mickey Rourke of the cycling world, this former Mennonite has been on top of the world, then quickly fallen to the the nadir of the sport, and now strangely, has transfixed us all in a new way. Albeit without a bike or any cohesive game plan to accomplish his misconstrued goals. Just as TMZ's cameras will constantly be affixed to Rourke's weathered, dimpled face, so will the cycling world be affixed to Floyd's next move, whether it's living in a car wash, racing as an unattached rider, or trying to bribe his way onto a pro tour team. Chances of him making a random appearance in France: Likely.

Bjarne Riis
Whether he’s tossing his time trial bike in disgust or selling short one of his own rider’s Tour de France victory, this one-time doper and now everyone's favorite tactical genius is one incident short of an epic (i said it) meltdown in France. He’s in a lose-lose scenario. If the Schlecks succeed, they will be taking that success straight to a new team next year, sure to anger Riis 10 times more than Sastre leaving for Cervelo after Tour success. If they fail, then Saxo fails, which is never good  amid a sponsor search. Either way, he can't win. I predict another bike toss, only with Frank still in the saddle.

Jacob Fuglsang: Saxo Bank
In a contract year, it will be interesting to see how this 25-year-old approaches the 2010 Tour de France. Coming off of an impressive podium at this year’s Tour de Suisse and a win at Denmark’s National Time Trial, will it be hard for Riis to saddle the youngster’s ambitions? Or with this being his first Tour, will the ambitions already be saddled by lack of experience?

And what about the seeming end to Team Saxo Bank and the beginnings of Team Schleck. Does Fuglsang fancy himself a contract with the pending Luxembourg team, or will he be using this tour to prove his worth to countless potential suitors at the Tour. Bottom line is a good result could earn him a huge contract and leadership, whereas solid domestique work will earn him a good contract schlepping the brothers Schleck around the Tour for the next five years. What’s it going to be Jacob?

 

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Last Thursday, I posted a diary looking at the top riders for AGR and FW. In the comments, I also looked at the top teams, ranking the top rider for each team in each race. I only counted teams that participated in all three races. I threw out Caisse, as there AGR participation was only three domestiques. With LBL in the books, here are the updated rankings:

Individual Competition
11 – Gilbert
19 – Cadel
25 - Hesjedal
25 – Horner
32 - Cunego
33 - Skinny Schleck
59 - Jurgen Van Den Broeck
63 - Nibali
70 - De Waele
94 – Zubeldia

Your podium for the Ardennes Classics is Gilbert, Cadel and Hesjedal. Ryder and Horner actually tied on points, but I gave the edge to Ryder because he got a podium at FW. As for Gilbert and Cadel, no surprises there. Ryder had an amazing Ardennes campaign, and combined with his fifth place at Eroica, he is growing into quite a stellar one day racer.

The other big surprise in the individual competition was Jurgen VDB. He worked his tail off for Gilbert, and still finished in the top 10 for the combined results.

Team Competition
7 – Astana

11 – Lotto

15 – BMC
16 – Katusha
22 – Saxo
25 – Garmin
25 – Radioshack
33 – Lampre

41 – Rabobank
41 – Euskaltel
47 – Liquigas
56 – FdJ
62 – Quick Step

69 – Cervelo
70 – Landbouwkredeit
80 – Sky
88 – Milram

94 – Topsport
118 – AG2R

125 – HTC

As for team results, I don't think anyone would have predicted the dominance by Astana this week. Plus, they did it with three different riders, racking up all three spots on the podium with Gasparotto, Contador and Vino. Truly a stellar run, and one wonders if AGR and FW would have turned out different if all three riders raced together each event.

Lotto also had an impressive showing, with the 1-2 punch of Gilbert and JVDB. Katusha made each race, but just lacked the legs in the finale to reach the top step of the podium. Still amazed Saxo didn't get one podium all week. Always seemed Bjarne's boys were shooting off fireworks with 40k to go, while every other team was waiting to detonate with 15k to go. Did Fabian's utter dominance of the cobbled classics, give Saxo too much confidence in their riders being able to break free from far out instead of being patient?

One last note, what the hell happened to HTC? I didn't think they would be  strong in the Ardennes, but to finish dead last...oof. Look for Cav to dominate Romandie to remedy the poor showing.

I took the top 25 results from Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallonne and looked at who has had the best results in both races. The number is the combined total result of both races. Lower is better.

7 - Gilbert
11 - Cunego
12 - Hesjedal
14 - Cadel
16 - De Waele
17 - Horner
27 - Skinny Schleck
34 - Nibali
40 - Jurgen Van Den Broeck
42 - Zubeldia

Food for thought: Lotto is the only team with two riders in top 10.

More food for thought: Will the winner of LBL come from this list?

You are starting a new professional cycling team, and have the money to lure either Fabian or Alberto to your team. Who do you choose? One of the most dominate Grand Tour riders of this era or one of the most dominate all-arounders of this era? The team is based in Europe and starts in 2011. You have no specific goals, like Sky, that wants to win the TdF with a British rider. Your only goal is to build a successful and enduring team to win races and bring value to your sponsor.

Or is there someone else?

Poll

Cancellara or Contador?

56%

Cancellara

84 votes

39%

Contador

59 votes

4%

Other

6 votes

149 votes | Poll has closed

Garmin Ltd. announced today that it will continue its title sponsorship of Team Garmin Slipstream through 2013. The GPS maker already was contracted to be the title sponsor of the team until 2010, so this is an additional three years to the contract.

Obviously, this is excellent news for this once upstart Boulder, Co.-based team that just finished its first full year as a Pro Tour team. I've always thought cycling was an excellent investment for Garmin, considering their products' many applications in cycling. It appears the executives at Garmin feel the same way.

“The success of the team spans the globe and surpassed our expectations for the first year and a half of our title sponsorship, bringing Garmin’s reputation for quality, commitment, performance and productivity into countless households in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia,” said Jon Cassat, Garmin’s vice president of communications. “Our objectives were – and continue to be – to integrate our products on sports’ biggest stages and to build global brand awareness. Whether capturing victories around the world, winning national championships or working to develop future generations of talent, Team Garmin has helped us achieve those objectives and has made an impression on billions of potential customers.”

In its two years on the Euro scene, I think Garmin has done extremely well. Especially considering their budget and the fact that the team was cobbled together from an U.S. domestic team without any really big name signings. Hopefully Garmin increases the budget for the next three years and can start attracting top-level talent to their ranks.

I’ve always managed to keep an even keel when it comes to being a cycling fan. I tend to fall in love with the races, not the riders. And when someone asks me who my favorite cyclist is, I usually am stumped for an answer. Sure, I like some riders more than others, but I generally root for the underdog. 

I crave the action, and not necessarily the results of a specific rider. This always keeps me at a comfortable distance during the inevitable Lance Armstrong flame wars. I am pretty ambivalent toward him. I think he’s a great rider, but also kind of an asshat with a lot of question marks. But neither of these feelings put me in the red. Not too many cyclists do.

Except the current leader of the Vuelta a Espana. Alejandro Valverde Belmonte.

He is my Lance. The closer he gets to a Vuelta win, the more I want to make vitriol-filled comments during live race chats.  The more he smiles, the more I want to rail on the illegitimacy of his win and the hypocrisy of all of his fans. 

I never understood the fervent anti-lance contingent. Now I do. 

I’ll try to remain calm for these next two stages, and keep my comments to myself.  But if a bit of my anger and asshattery finds its way into a live chat, I apologize in advance. It just makes me sick to my stomach to see a great race inevitably descend into chaos when valv.piti’s transgressions eventually catch up to him via the hand of CAS. 

Poll

Alejandro Valverde Belmonte makes me...

76%

sick

88 votes

23%

smile

27 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

I don't think the team has made it official yet, but a David Millar CN diary published today details the team's trip to Holland to start the Tour of Spain. Garmin's lineup looks like this:

• Dan Martin
• Tom Danielson
• Tyler Farrar
• Julian Dean
• David Millar
• Ryder Hesjedal
• Christian Meier
• Svein Tuft
• Martijn Maaskant

According to Millar's diary and a JV tweet earlier this week, they think this team is as competitive as the TdF team. I don't know if I buy that. Two top 10s in the GC and a handful of stage podiums is pretty good. However, if Tyler bags Garmin's first non-TTT grand tour stage win, then I guess that feat alone overrides top 10 GC placements.

 

Top 5 story lines to follow:
1. How the GT rookies fare over three weeks: Dan Martin, Christian Meier and Svein Tuft. I don't expect much from these three guys, and think making to the end is a solid accomplishment.

 

2. Tom Danielson: Returns to the race that made him.

 

3.  Tyler Farrar: Dominated Eneco, but has not fared as successfully against a full-on Columbia train, albeit one steered by Greipel

 

4. Julian Dean: I have to think he's riding for a Garmin contract. Unless he ushers Tyler to at least two stage victories, I think he is forced to find employment elsewhere.

 

5. David Millar: Is he capable of winning races anymore?

Without a doubt, Mark Cavendish is the fastest man in the peloton by about two bike lengths. Combine this with a world-class lead-out train and you have a potent recipe of complete domination by Cavendish on any sprint stage. Remind you of someone else? 

Does Mark Cavendish to sprinting = Lance Armstrong to  the Tour de France?

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Based on all of the rumors, rancor and speculation, Team Astana will implode at the end of this season. At the very least, it will look significantly different. I can’t imagine Alberto or Lance sticking around, and I can see each of these guys taking their favorite domestiques with them to their new teams. What will be left of Team Astana I imagine is Vino and his Kazakh friends. Thus guaranteeing no invites to grand tours or other important races.

So, looking at the current roster, it’s never to early to start speculating on where the various pieces will fall for the 2010 TdF. For the point of this speculative exercise, I’m assuming Armstrong starts a new team and Alberto either goes to CdE or starts a new team, as is rumored today. Also, this is all directed towards the 2010 TdF, and not building a squad for the complete season.

Team Armstrong (new team)

• Lance Armstrong
• Levi Leiphemier
• Jani Brajkovic
• Chris Horner
• Popo

 

Analysis: That is a monster team built with two impressive leaders (levi and lance) that appear to get along well. I also think Levi is one of the few guys Lance would actually ride for.

 

Team Contador (new team)

• Alberto Contador
• Jesus Hernandez
• Daniel Navarro
• Benjamin Noval
• Sergio Paulinho

 

Analysis: Not bad, but not that impressive. Obviously , Bert would seek to fill out the roster with some more heavyweights, but still, I imagine it will be a team of little experience.

 

Caisse d’Eparne (with Contador)

• Alberto Contador
• LL Sanchez
• David Arroyo
• Oscar Pereiro
• Rigoberto Uran
• Rui Costa
• Alejandro Valverde

 

Analysis: Obviously, there is one major question marks on that roster, whether or not valv.piti can ride the Tour next year. Even if he can’t though, you have a solid co-leader with LL Sanchez and experience with Oscar. Plus, Uran and Costa will be a year older with more experience. All in all, a really solid team.

Final Analysis: Contador would be crazy to stick with Astana (unless forced to for the remainder of his contract) or start a new team. If his goal is to rack up TdF victories for the rest of his career, I think his best shot is to go to CdE.

Still, next year’s TdF sets up to be much more exciting with Lance and Contador on opposing teams. Throw in a strong and more experienced A. Schleck on Saxo Bank, as well as a more experienced Cervelo Test Team behind Carlos, and we potentially have four teams with recent experience winning the big show.

The best thing for the 2010 TdF is if Astana implodes, thus eliminating a clearly dominant team and leaving behind four or five really good teams.