SB Nation User Blog: PopUp Rolen

Why Not Me? Levi Leipheimer

PopUp Rolen — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:47:21 -0000

Why He Will Win

Contrary to popular belief, this year’s parcours sets up perfect for Levi Leipheimer. One would think that the lack of time trial miles would hurt the specialist, but I submit that there are just enough to make a difference and not enough to burn too many of Levi’s matches. For the sake of argument, I am pitting Levi only vs. Bert, as I believe Bert is the clear favorite.

First, let’s look at this year’s TTs compared to the 2008 Vuelta. I picked this edition of the Vuelta because it was the last Grand Tour that both riders were aiming to peak at.

2008 Vuelta Stage 5 - 40km flat: Levi took 49 seconds from Bert on this stage.

2008 Vuelta Stage 20 - 16km uphill: Levi took 31 seconds from Bert on this stage

This year’s TdF Time Trials are eerily similar in distance, with a 15km slightly hilly TT in stage one and a 40.5km flat TT in stage 18. The profiles are different, but I think that works in Levi’s favor. There are fewer bumps in this year’s TdF TT profiles, only playing into Levi’s strength.

With 55.5kms of time trials in the 2009 TdF, I predict Levi can take at least a minute and a half from Albert, with the best case scenario being 2:30.

Even more important to Levi’s quest for the top step of the podium is the lack of TT miles. This may seem contrarian to the general thought that the only way Levi can take time on Bert is through time trials. However, I suggest that the lack of time trial kilometers will allow Levi to take valuable seconds, without burning his legs out.

Indulge me for a bit. We all know Levi goes 110% on every time trial because he has a chance of winning almost every time. And bike riders like to win. I don’t see Levi winning too many road races, so TTs are his one shot at glory. As a result, LL expends every ounce of energy on the time trials, which can hurt him later in the race.

This year’s “epic” Giro TT was a classic example. Levi’s effort on this wicked hard course killed his chances in the remaining mountain stages, thus killing his chance at a Giro win. Maybe if this year’s Giro TT were easier, he would have had the energy to compete on the subsequent mountain stages.

So bringing this chain of thought back to the 2009 TdF, If Levi can take anywhere from 1:30 to 2:30 on Contador in the TTs, where can Contador take it back?I believe the only place he can take it back is on mountain top finishes. And this year, we have three. I don’t think that’s enough and here’s why:

Stage 7: Too early and bert will not want to show his cards yet
Stage 15: Bert will take a bit on the last 2k, but not much
Stage 20: Bert’s big opportunity, but going by the theory that Levi just gets better as a tour progresses, I think Levi limits his losses to less than 30 seconds

In the end, the TT’s are just enough, but not too much for Levi to take time in the TTs and limit time losses in the mountain.

Why Won’t He Win #1: Take this exact same formula and insert in Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov. Both time trialists on par with Levi.

Why Won’t He Win #2: Levi and Lance’s summer Bromance continues and Levi sacrifices his chances for Armstrong’s ill-fated quest for another victory.

Prediction

1. Levi

2. Bert +21

3. Cadel +48

Anyway, after squabbling back and forth to each other, in all his anger and frustration, Lance...

PopUp Rolen — Fri, 22 May 2009 00:04:53 -0000

Anyway, after squabbling back and forth to each other, in all his anger and frustration, Lance turned to Cunego and said, "I'll crush you, little Prince!".

Garmin Dips Its Toe in Australia's Talent Pool

PopUp Rolen — Wed, 06 May 2009 00:27:32 -0000

Garmin-Slipstream has formed a partnership with Cycling Australia to develop the country's impressive roster of young riders into professional cyclists. In the short-term, this means the addition of the much twittered about Jack Bobridge to Garmin's lineup.

Bobridge (only 19-years old!!!!) joins fellow Aussie and trackie Cameron Meyer (21-years old) on the American team.

“This partnership provides an ideal opportunity for Australia’s emerging talent to forge professional careers but to also to pursue their ambition to represent Australia in major international events,” said Graham Fredericks, CEO of Cycling Australia. “We are very pleased to formalise a relationship with a team that shares our philosophy and look forward to working with Team Garmin-Slipstream.”

Seems to me Garmin is stocking its minor league system with a lot of young talent in hopes of building a team like CSC from the ground up, instead of forking over big money to acquire big pieces. I'll be interested to hear what our fellow Aussie PdC'ers have to say about this new agreement.

Full press release.

Garmin Announces Giro Team

PopUp Rolen — Tue, 05 May 2009 14:54:48 -0000

Christian Vande Velde
Bradley Wiggins
Cameron Meyer
Danny Pate
David Millar
Dave Zabriskie
Julian Dean
Tom Danielson
Tyler Farrar

A few surprises in my opinion. The young Cameron Meyer getting the nod is very surprising, as is the exclusion of Ryder Hesjedal, who has had a pretty solid Spring campaign. Tuft also misses out on his first grand tour and Julian Dean seems to have snuck in. According to Matt White...

“Narrowing down a Grand Tour list is always difficult, especially when guys like Ryder Hesjedal have been having a tremendous season. But we need to keep our goal of helping Christian at the Tour de France in mind, and preserving someone like Ryder now could be a huge benefit to us later.”

A long 72 kilometers

PopUp Rolen — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 03:28:56 -0000

Koppenberg in Infrared. Photographed by my brother-in-law (dreambrother photography).

72 kilometers does not seem like much. At least it didn’t to me. I have already put in 1,600k this year, and raced three times the week before leaving for Belgium.

72 kilometers? Easy. Or so I thought.

After seven days in Belgium, my two traveling partners and I were stoked at the opportunity to join in the fray. For six days, we had driven hundreds of kilometers in both Belgium and the Netherlands, drooling over the ample bike lanes and culture that so strongly centers around cycling.

The day could not have been any more perfect, with the sun blazing and temperatures hovering around 65°F. The wind was significant enough to get the true Belgium experience, but not so fierce as to make for a miserable day in the saddle.

We picked up our Eddy Merckx rentals and De Ronde maps and set out to conquer the official Orange Route, which covered 72 kilometers and many famous cobbled climbs, including the Oude Kwaremont, Kruisberg, Paterberg, Koppenberg, Steenbeekdries, Taaineberg and the Eikenberg. The bike was a beauty, and its orange color complimented my team kit quite well I thought. The bike also had three rings. Something I was not accustomed too, but thanked God for by the end of the day.

Not even a half-kilometer into the route and we were at the foot of the Kluisberg, a non-cobbled 1k climb with a max gradient of 14.5% and an average grade of 7.2%. For some, this is a molehill. But living in Chicago, the biggest hill I ride is a bridge that spans the Chicago River. This, combined with the remnants of the previous night’s Belgian beer and less than a kilometer in my legs, and the Kluisberg felt like Ventoux. Thank god it was not cobbled.

Typical Belgian road.

With the first climb out of the way, we settled into a nice groove for the next 15k. The sun was shining, we were riding on ridiculously small roads, and the car traffic ceded to us, not the other way around. This part of the ride also exposed us to one aspect of Belgium cycling that I don’t get in Chicago: manure.

Albeit a beautiful country, Belgium smells like shit. Literally. And it’s not just the bland but pungent smell of manure I am used to from driving back and forth between Chicago and St. Louis. Belgium manure is different and varied. It seemed like every time we or the wind changed directions, an entirely new smell of manure would hit you. It was not bothersome, but rather amazing that cow shit has so many different aromas.

Jon and I at the local tavern/coffee shop

After about 20k of riding, we decided to make our first coffee stop. If you’ve never been to Belgium, there are not really many coffee shops, just taverns that open at 9am and serve coffee. Still, not many people are seen drinking coffee at these establishments, but it is rather common to see the locals drinking beer at 10am.

After coffee, it was off to Oude Kwaremont and its 2.5k of cobbles. Max grade was only 11.6%, but the distance was a monster and since this was our first exposure to cobbles, it was a challenge to say the least.

Oude Kwaremont goes through a small town center a little more than half-way through.

After conquering Kwaremont, we found ourselves off the marked trail and lost in the charming, but confusing town of Ronse. We were looking for the next climb, the Kruisberg. Unfortunately, there also is a Kluisbos, Kluisberg and Kluisbergen within 20 kilometers of the Kruisberg. We asked for directions three different times, and got pointed three different places.

In the end, we probably added another 15k and two challenging climbs to the day. We finally found the Kruisberg after about an hour of searching. Nothing special, just another bump in the road that seemed simple at the beginning of the ride, but started to add up by the end of the day.

After the confusion that Ronse delivered, we made stop number two to fuel up on meats, cheeses and beer.

Jonathan and I fueling up for the Koppenberg

After lunch and refreshments, our minds were on the Koppenberg, even though we still had the Paterberg on tap. We somehow got turned around again (a common theme throughout our 10 days in Belgium), and were convinced we accidentally skipped the Patenberg. This was not the case though as a blind right hand turn on a fast downhill placed us immediately on the cobbles of this short (361 meters) but wicked steep climb with a max gradient of 20.3%.

Paterberg = short, steep and surprising

For the first 50 meters of the climb, I don’t know what was louder: the eff bombs flying out of all of our mouths at the shock of hitting this wall or the wailing and hammering of our chains as we all tried to drop through the gears as fast as possible. I was amazed that none of us snapped our chains because each of us probably went from the big ring to the little ring while going up hill.

After this lesson learned, we spent the next 10k preparing for the Koppenberg. I don’t know what else I can add about this fabled climb that has not already been said. Pulling up to it, you are overwhelmed with a combination of excitement and terror.

Me before going in the hurt locker.

After stopping for the obligatory picture, I got a good running start and hit the climb. Like most of these climbs, you get in a groove, get confident, then you hit a ramp that shatters any good sensations you were having.

Yes, the cobbles really are that rough.

This was by far the steepest thing I’ve ever ridden, and I must say, it was a bit terrifying to see your front tire so easily lifting off the ground at every small bump. And considering I was on cobbles, I spent most of the climb wondering if it was possible to fall straight backwards on a bike. Fortunately, I remained upright and finished the climb without touching down.

Realizing how much I’ve already written, I’ll spare you the details of the rest of the day. The weather remained beautiful, the roads were small and enjoyable, and the cobbles continued to suck every ounce of energy out of you.

I’ll finish this up with a few thoughts about what it’s like riding on Belgian cobbles. Simply put, it’s exciting, scary, jarring and most of all, draining. By the end of the day, not only are your legs shattered, but your arms, core and mind are equally as run down.

Surprisingly I enjoyed going up the cobbles much more than riding a flat sector. Going up, there was a certain amount of control you possessed over the situation. If you made a mistake on the line you were taking or the gear you were in, you could slow the tempo and recover.

Riding a flat section, you completely felt at the mercy of the road. You had to be 100% committed and confident that you were going to dominate. On flat sections, it’s all about power. If you go in at 80% and pause for one second, your speed will plummet and in no time, you’re getting bounced around at 15kph. The damage that these flat sections inflict on the arms and hands is monumental. I can’t even describe it.

A successful day is rewarded with Belgian beer.

By the end of the day, we were all extremely cashed and very thankful we chose the 72k route instead of the 80k or 114k route. For any cyclist and cycling fan, this trip is a must. Experiencing the route gave me a completely new respect for the suffering pros go through.

I’ll definitely be back to Belgium. I’ll have more coming soon about the races, and most importantly, the beer.

Photo Credits: My brother-in-law Jonathan (dreambrother photography) took the first one and the rest are me.

Photo Credit: Dreambrother Too tired to write my first of many posts about my 11 days in Belgium,...

PopUp Rolen — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:22:02 -0000

Photo Credit: Dreambrother

Too tired to write my first of many posts about my 11 days in Belgium, but I wanted to provide an appetizer.

This was taken by my brother in law in the Trench. He shot in infrared to provide a different look to the race. As you can tell, we were at a great spot right when the big crash happened.

I'll have much more in the coming days.

Solvang TT: Winners, Losers and DNFs

PopUp Rolen — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 02:07:56 -0000

1 Levi Leipheimer	even
2 David Zabriskie	plus 1
3 Michael Rogers	minus 1
4 Jens Voigt	plus 8
5 Thomas Lövkvist	plus 2
6 Lance Armstrong	minus 2
7 Robert Gesink	plus 3
8 Janez Brajkovic	minus 2
9 Christopher Horner	minus 4
10 Francisco Mancebo	plus 6
11 Vincenzo Nibali	minus 2
12 Thomas Danielson	plus 2
13 José Luis Rubiera	minus 5
14 Kevin Seeldraeyers	plus 1
15 Oscar Sevilla	minus 4
DNF Basso: Boo Boo	:(

The above table represents a brief snapshot of the winners and losers from today's Solvang Time Trial in terms of GC classification. I compared the GC results at the end of stage five vs. GC results at the end of stage 6. I'll keep the analysis short, because there are many more wiser minds than mine in this group. Regardless, a few thoughts on the table:

Throw out all of the Astana results save Levi and Lance. I'm sure Johan told Jani, Chris and Chechu to save it for the weekend.
Somebody already has said this, but if Levi does the Giro this year, it will be his best shot to win a Grand Tour. Not sure if he can hold form for that long and he probably is not as focused on the Giro as Le Tour, but I think with the course and competition, he could make a solid run at the top step of the podium. With the Stage 12, 61.7 km time trial, I can see him taking huge chunks of time out of everyone. Combined with a strong team that can limit his losses in the mountains, and I think he could win the race.
Jens! was a huge winner with this time trial effort, jumping eight places in GC. Can you imagine the potential fireworks if either of the Schlecks would have made the split on Stage One?
Lance. Meh. Actually, I am a bit surprised he's doing this well. He looks old and too muscular. However, if spectators standing 10 deep is what we get with Lance, then I welcome him back to the peloton. The crowds have been unreal in Cali.
Excellent ride by Gesink. Hopped two spots on the GC and at such a ripe age, is showing impressive skills in the mountains and on the time trial bike. Is he a Shoo-in for Young Rider jersey at Le Tour?
Disappointed in Nibali's ride. Thought he would put up a better showing.
Glad to see Tommy D putting together a solid week-long plus tour. He could be a huge help to CVV in July if he can keep things together.
Basso. I don't get it. Don't get the hype. Don't get the fanfare. I guess I'm too new to cycling, and I don't remember the "days of yore," but to me he's an ex doper that has yet to prove he can ride clean.

We still have two more days, but I can't see things on the GC moving much. If Saxo had another rider in contention, I think it could have been interesting. You would have three teams (Saxo, Garmin and Columbia) with two riders each in contention. Could have been major fireworks attacking the remaining two stages. Alas.

Basso vs. Cunego: Let’s Get it On!

PopUp Rolen — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 14:22:33 -0000

In a battle of new media vs. old media, Damiano Cunego fired the first salvo at Ivan Basso in Gazetta dello Sport, making thinly veiled references to the “Courageous” Liquigas gas rider’s past doping problems and newly avowed transparency.

"I only hope that there is a balanced playing field, otherwise those who have talked so much about transparency would be better to keep quiet."

Mr. Basso did not take to kindly to the alleged insinuation by the Little Prince and responded the best way he knew how: Twitter.

i'm reading gazzetta dello sport if cunego refers to me about trasparency. i find it very funny..

Like, OMG, LOL, RAOFL.

I yearn for the days when riders settled their differences like men: in lycra shorts and wild flailing attacks.

Wasting Ink or: How I Learned to Pile on VeloNews

PopUp Rolen — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 01:36:25 -0000

Last night, gavia cast the first stone at VeloNews for its quite amusing typo.

“Vesus to broadcast the Tour Down Under”

A day and 26 comments later, and evidently, Vesus still has the rights to the TdU.

Today, I believe VeloNews made an even more egregious error in wasting an insane amount of ink on a fight at Cyclocross Nationals. This story appeared at the PdC and was given the exact treatment I felt it deserved: 105 words by the Chief that summed up the situation and provided excellent links to another story and photos. Chapeau Chief!

Conversely, VeloNews’ “scuffle coverage” extended to 781 words.

781 words on a fight that did not involve one thrown punch or occur during or immediately after the race. In comparison, VeloNews used the following amount of words on what I perceive are pretty important stories:

Giro route announced: 343 words
Vuelta route announced: 237 words

To recap, VeloNews spent 781 words writing about a shoving match after a cross race, and the unveiling of the Giro and Vuelta routes garnered a combined word count of 580. That seems really bizarre to me.

"I call them freedom. Freedom wear"

PopUp Rolen — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 03:34:33 -0000

Words cannot explain. I always knew David Zabriskie was certifiably nuts, no pun intended, but this is absolutely classic. Every single video is a classic in its own right. And more important, there are an immense amount of quotables in each video that may one day attain Lebowski status. A few of my favorites:

"I call them freedom. Freedom wear"

"Not up and down, I think you go side-to-side"

"What's Daddy got? He's got DZ Nuts"

"While you're out protecting the world, I'm protecting people's junk"

"So I rode six hours yesterday, what'd you do?"

"I only told people it was Bar-B-Que flavored as a joke"

Watch the videos.