More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

By now, Doc surely must be having nightmares of being chased by mic booms

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I know everyone is waking up in hopes of hearing the final details of the Halladay/Lee blockbuster, but alas, there's nothing to report yet.  Here's some appetizers while you wait:

If the trade is finalized, Halladay has a 60% chance of taking the mound once during the regular season next year.  Philadelphia comes to town May 10-12.

It must be terrible to play in Toronto, where a meteor striking New England provides the only chance of playoff action.  Not surprisingly, Roy Halladay wants postseason action (Dusty Saunders, Denver Post).  One interesting line:

He has never pitched in a single major-league postseason game. Not one. That's about to change.

When is the last time an NL team was so supremely awesome on paper in November that playoff tickets could already be printed?

Someoned analyzed the Halladay/Lee insanity with Trade Value Calculator at Beyond the Box Score.  If Blicks' calculations are correct, the trade heavily favors Toronto (though their value is most volatile as it is chiefly tied to prospects) while Philly paid over $23million in value for a 1.0 WAR increase.  Of course, Cliff Lee's reluctance to sign on longterm and Halladay's requisite 3-year extension in place changes the motives.

RJ Anderson at Fangraphs writes about Cliff Lee.  One thing is certain - Halladay cannot be more dominant against the Rockies than Lee was.  It's not like Halladay dominated the Rockies the one time he pitched against us.  Oh, wait.  

Rockies Links

Rockies are among Capps' suitors | ColoradoRockies.com: News (Thomas Harding)
Colorado has apparently called Matt Capps' agent, which naturally could mean anything.  There is apparent mutual interest, as Capps enjoyed playing for Jim Tracy in 2006-07 and the Rockies need a right-handed reliever.  The late inning roles are filled, so Capps would have to be filling the role Jose Contreras would leave.  I assume O'Dowd would have mentioned this in the call he placed to agent Paul Kinzer, so the fact there remains "mutual interest" suggests to me that the former Pirate isn't shutting the door on a massively reduced role.  However, if he still wants to pitch late in games, one of the other eight teams that have expressed interest will likely give him that opportunity.  If the Rockies do acquire him, he could be next in line for the Bob Apodaca tune up.  Something tells me 'Dac could get Capps to throw his fastball for strikes again.

 Jon Heyman of SI.com writes of Yorvit Torrealba's grievance suit against the New York Mets from 2007.  The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow regarding Omar Minaya backing out on a 3-year $14.4million contract following the 2007 season.  Torrealba claims "the Mets falsely created the impression that [he] was an injury risk."

 Atkins Non-Tendered | FanGraphs Baseball - Dave Allen tries to analyze Atkins' decline.  While acknowledging his numbers have dropped each year since 2006, he lumps 2006-08 and compares is BABIP to 2009.  The result - his fly balls aren't turning into home runs or hits anymore, effectively meaning he has lost his ability to hit the ball hard.

Reward Retrospective: The 2007 National League MVP - Beyond the Box Score
A hot topic during the NLDS was Matt Holliday's loss to Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP.  Should Rollins have won?  No.  But should Holliday have won?  Turns out he wasn't even a clear choice for second (nointangiblesjuststatisticallyWARspeaking).  

by Matt Slocum - AP

Brad Hawpe led the league in negative doubles

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The NL West boasted three very strong offensive right-fielders last season.  Justin Upton and Brad Hawpe each made All-Star appearances, while Andre Ethier took home a Silver Slugger.  What you might not realize is just how close those three were in offensive production last season.

With the fearsome trio eating up at least 580 PA each in right field, they represented the resounding majority of PA for their teams.  Brad Hawpe and the Rockies led the way with a park-adjusted .367 wOBA, followed by J-Up and the Snakes at .366, followed by Ethier and the Dodgers at .365.

Naturally, what separates the three teams in overall value then is defense, which proves to be quite the unequalizer.

Hawpe was so statistically weak defensively that the Giants actually passed the Rockies on the list, while Will Venable and Randy Winn each passed Hawpe for overall value.

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More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

These two guys' fates seem to have shifted a bit.

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Some GM's, like David Dombrowski, choose to use the Winter Meetings to contact every team about Edwin Jackson - including the Rockies - only to pull him off the table.  Instead, it seems Dan O'Dowd spent the majority of his time secluded in his room talking with his own players' agents yesterday.

Dan O'Dowd and Rafael Betancourt had danced in and out of option year, two year contract and three year contract discussions, with the Betancourt ultimately accepting arbitration (Renck) late last night.  He'll likely make close to what he did had the Rockies exercised his option.

Thomas Harding reports that, as expected, Jason Marquis has declined arbitration (Harding), rewarding the Rockies with a sandwich pick for having the guts to risk dealing with his eight figure salary had he accepted.  In truth, you would be hard pressed to find a more clearcut case for declining $10+mil guaranteed around the league.

Troy Renck reported that O'Dowd has been working on multi-year deals for Huston Street, Clint Barmes and Chris Iannetta, as fanshotted below by Hizilla.  Street has been seeking $30mil, but the ultimate offer should be closer to $25mil.  

As for locking up Iannetta (Harding), the deal is a buy-low contract that would buy out his arbitration years.  It would be unlikely to pay him much more than he would receive those years.  Harding notes that Iannetta actually improved his slugging percentage last season by twenty points.  Who knew?  A quick note from the bottom of the article.  Dan O'Dowd said "[Franklin Morales] is going back into our bullpen."

As noted early in the day, the Rockies cleared space for Ryan Spilborghs (Harding).  In deciding not to sell low on the gaucho, Dan O'Dowd had to tell Matt Murton he was once again squeezed from a deserved MLB roster spot.  He was then sold to a team in Japan.  I hope he can return to get another shot on this side of the Pacific in 2011.

For a brief wrap of NL West Rumors from the meetings, take the jump.

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More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Don't forget about this guy.

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Matt Kemp was a beast this season, but that doesn't mean the Dodgers had the best CF spot last season.  For the second straight week, Los Angeles surprisingly gets pushed to second place by a team without a primary starter.  

San Diego started the season with Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut platooning in center field, but by the All-Star break, both had been jettisoned, with the only returning position player being their new center fielder who had been in AAA all season to that point.

But don't let Petco Park and the constant new faces fool you.  The Padres were strong in center field last season.

Hairston saved almost all his San Diego offense for his CF starts, posting a ridiculous .458 wOBA in 148 PA.  His eventual replacement, Tony Gwynn Jr, had the best OBP in the division outside of Hairston matched with fantastic defensive play.  That was enough to supersede the Dodgers, who had neutral defense and just a 13 point wOBA* edge.  This can teach us two things - it is indeed a team game, and don't discredit the Padres' offense, as Petco Park can mask a lot.

All the proof and stats are under the fold.

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More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Arbitration: some people get it, and some people just don't.

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It is December 1, meaning today is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration, at least to qualify for draft pick compensation. Betancourt is likely the only Rockie to receive salary arbitration offer, writes Troy Renck, leaving Joe Beimel, Jason Marquis and Yorvit Torrealba free.  Betancourt is a no-brainer.  If he accepts arbitration, he'll make less than he would have made had the Rockies exercised his option, but if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Rockies will receive two high and shiny draft picks.  Also, as WolfMarauder noted, Troy Renck also suggests the Rockies are interested in Fernando Tatis, Bobby Crosby, Rich Aurilia, Justin Duchsherer and Miguel Batista.

On a national scale, MLBTradeRumors has spent time inquiring the minds of beat writers everywhere to compile his Arbitration Offer Predictions For Free Agents.

Two highlights from FOX Sports Offseason Buzz:  the Rockies will likely keep Ryan Spilborghs and the Diamondbacks are looking at improving via trade rather than free agency.

The Rockies received their postseason share (Renck).  Their share of the player's pool totaled over $1.77mil.  Just as the Rockies did with the family of Mike Coolbaugh, the Angels awarded a full share to the family of Nick Adenhart.

Samuel Deduno is a hot name on Rockies' farm (Harding).  The 26-year old could be a strong dark horse to join the bullpen next season if the cards fall right.

Thomas Harding also writes that "about 200" broadcasters have applied for the job to replace Jeff Kingery in the radio booth.  The club will decide sometime in "early 2010," which only tells us they are handing it out as a holiday gift.

Speaking of broadcasters, Chip Caray is out at TBS, a divorce reported as mutual.  Hat tip to RhodeIslandRoxFan

It is certainly a bleak year for free agent pitching.  The Hardball Times searched for someone to best compare top free agent John Lackey to, and you might like the comparison.  Click under the fold to find out:

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More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

A Rockies' draft pick was the most valuable LF in the NL West last season. It wasn't this guy though...

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Tulo just beats out Pujols here. That won't happen today.

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The NL MVP award will be going back to St. Louis today at 11am MST.  Albert Pujols won the award in 2005 and 2008.  Aside from landslide drama, we might be interested to see where Troy Tulowitzki ends up on ballots.  The MLB.com article made a serious mistake in appointing two Nationals as "dark horses" while leaving Tulo's name completely out of the article.

Tracy Ringolsby acknowledges the Rockies don't have a contender for MVP, but he still made sure purple would find its way on the voting tapestry with his vote:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Chase Utley
4. Hanley Ramirez
5. Prince Fielder
6. Andre Ethier
7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Huston Street
10. Adam Wainwright

Free agent talk

MLB Rumors recently posted their Offseason Oulook for the Rockies, coming to the conclusion we all know - they won't be spending much money this offseason.

Hat tip to RMN here:  Jason Grilli has signed with a seventh team.  Who that team is has yet to be announced, but we can be certain it isn't the Rockies.  Grilli was 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA with Colorado in 2008, and after being traded to Texas for cash in June, he had an ERA under two for much of the season.

Buster Olney tweets that teams are being aggressive in their pursuit of Randy Wolf.  That's not surprising given the weak FA class.  Marc Hulet from Fangraphs warns that the lefty may be a a Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing.  Perhaps he meant a sheep with a wolf's name.

It is looking likely that the Dodgers won't trade for Roy Halladay to replace Wolf, as Ned Colletti doesn't want to part with Chad Billingsley.  A deal hear is widely considered "a long shot."

The Colorado native could still land in "Los Angeles" though.  With J.P. Ricciardi gone, the Angels have renewed interest, as Toronto's new GM might not require Erick Aybar in return.

Lastly, Are Metrics Blinding Our Perception? - NYTimes.com "Welcome to the Age of Metrics - or to the End of Instinct."

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Only two NL West catchers were above league average with the bat in 2009 (by wOBA). Neither played on the Pacific coast.

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Do not place undue trust in WAR for catchers. How much of a catcher's value do you think is in his defense? I'll give you a hint: it's a lot. FanGraphs has unfortunately yet to give an effort to quantifying this vital aspect of the game, other than with the positional adjustment. In fact, catchers should possibly be considered a separate group of players with a separate replacement level and therefore be treated as different from all other position players.

Now, given that I have ruined the legitimacy of all ensuing data, let's look at the numbers.

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More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

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The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted.  I recommend switching to wide view  to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link.  However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch?  The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy.  They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA.  Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games.  The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008.  The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs.  Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants.  In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams.  They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season.  Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday.  It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan.  Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay?  Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.  I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI.  The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths.  Who would you rather have on your team in 2010?  Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

by David Zalubowski - AP

If UZR wasn't so strangely hard on Tulo, the Rockies' shortstop would be even higher above his competition.

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