SB Nation User Blog: Poseidon's Fist

Tuesday Rockpile: Roy Halladay will pitch at Coors Field in 2010 (maybe)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:44:23 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

By now, Doc surely must be having nightmares of being chased by mic booms

I know everyone is waking up in hopes of hearing the final details of the Halladay/Lee blockbuster, but alas, there's nothing to report yet. Here's some appetizers while you wait:

If the trade is finalized, Halladay has a 60% chance of taking the mound once during the regular season next year. Philadelphia comes to town May 10-12.

It must be terrible to play in Toronto, where a meteor striking New England provides the only chance of playoff action. Not surprisingly, Roy Halladay wants postseason action (Dusty Saunders, Denver Post). One interesting line:

He has never pitched in a single major-league postseason game. Not one. That's about to change.

When is the last time an NL team was so supremely awesome on paper in November that playoff tickets could already be printed?

Someoned analyzed the Halladay/Lee insanity with Trade Value Calculator at Beyond the Box Score. If Blicks' calculations are correct, the trade heavily favors Toronto (though their value is most volatile as it is chiefly tied to prospects) while Philly paid over $23million in value for a 1.0 WAR increase. Of course, Cliff Lee's reluctance to sign on longterm and Halladay's requisite 3-year extension in place changes the motives.

RJ Anderson at Fangraphs writes about Cliff Lee. One thing is certain - Halladay cannot be more dominant against the Rockies than Lee was. It's not like Halladay dominated the Rockies the one time he pitched against us. Oh, wait.

Rockies Links

Rockies are among Capps' suitors | ColoradoRockies.com: News (Thomas Harding)
Colorado has apparently called Matt Capps' agent, which naturally could mean anything. There is apparent mutual interest, as Capps enjoyed playing for Jim Tracy in 2006-07 and the Rockies need a right-handed reliever. The late inning roles are filled, so Capps would have to be filling the role Jose Contreras would leave. I assume O'Dowd would have mentioned this in the call he placed to agent Paul Kinzer, so the fact there remains "mutual interest" suggests to me that the former Pirate isn't shutting the door on a massively reduced role. However, if he still wants to pitch late in games, one of the other eight teams that have expressed interest will likely give him that opportunity. If the Rockies do acquire him, he could be next in line for the Bob Apodaca tune up. Something tells me 'Dac could get Capps to throw his fastball for strikes again.

Jon Heyman of SI.com writes of Yorvit Torrealba's grievance suit against the New York Mets from 2007. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow regarding Omar Minaya backing out on a 3-year $14.4million contract following the 2007 season. Torrealba claims "the Mets falsely created the impression that [he] was an injury risk."

Atkins Non-Tendered | FanGraphs Baseball - Dave Allen tries to analyze Atkins' decline. While acknowledging his numbers have dropped each year since 2006, he lumps 2006-08 and compares is BABIP to 2009. The result - his fly balls aren't turning into home runs or hits anymore, effectively meaning he has lost his ability to hit the ball hard.

Reward Retrospective: The 2007 National League MVP - Beyond the Box Score
A hot topic during the NLDS was Matt Holliday's loss to Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. Should Rollins have won? No. But should Holliday have won? Turns out he wasn't even a clear choice for second (nointangiblesjuststatisticallyWARspeaking).

NL West in Review: Right Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:23:51 -0000

The NL West boasted three very strong offensive right-fielders last season. Justin Upton and Brad Hawpe each made All-Star appearances, while Andre Ethier took home a Silver Slugger. What you might not realize is just how close those three were in offensive production last season.

With the fearsome trio eating up at least 580 PA each in right field, they represented the resounding majority of PA for their teams. Brad Hawpe and the Rockies led the way with a park-adjusted .367 wOBA, followed by J-Up and the Snakes at .366, followed by Ethier and the Dodgers at .365.

Naturally, what separates the three teams in overall value then is defense, which proves to be quite the unequalizer.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	5	.294	26	96	.359	.498	.366	4.85
2. Los Angeles	6	.266	34	120	.344	.504	.365	2.56
3. San Francisco	5	.262	8	57	.316	.380	.312	1.76
4. Colorado	6	.270	25	98	.370	.486	.367	1.68
5. San Diego	8	.212	21	76	.280	.366	.298	-0.39

Hawpe was so statistically weak defensively that the Giants actually passed the Rockies on the list, while Will Venable and Randy Winn each passed Hawpe for overall value.

To compare the teams visually (note the blue batting bars for Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles):

For the full player rankings, click here.

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link. For team capsules, take the jump

Arizona

2009 in Review

I think we can officially say that the Diamondbacks' 51-111 2004 campaign was worth it for Arizona fans. The pitiful finish assured Arizona with the top pick in the 2005 draft. Their choice just finished his second season as the primary starter, appearing in the All-Star game at just 21. Of the three predominant offensive RF in the division last year, he was the only one to avoid being a black hole defensively. Indeed, he was quite an asset with the arm and range he displayed. Alex Romero posted a near league average wOBA as Upton's primary backup, while Gerardo Parra hit .400 in 28 PA as a RFer.

Justin Upton

#10 / Right Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 25, 1987

2010 in Preview

Upton's salary was just $412,000 last year, but he also received $1.3million as part of his then-record setting signing bonus. Upton is neither arbitration eligible or a Super Two, so he will make chump change again next season, though his final $2mil installment of his signing bonus will come his way. Obviously, he'll be in right field at Chase Field until finances dictate otherwise.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Despite having the best overall OBP and wOBA in the division, the Rockies fell to fourth in the division due to Brad Hawpe's poor defense. In fact, according to UZR, he cost the Rockies more defensively than any player in the major leagues this season, the second consecutive year he managed that feat (Ryan Braun and Ken Griffey Jr. were worse in 2007). Over the last three years, Hawpe's UZR is 33% worse than any player in MLB. Unbelievably, Carlos Gonzalez actually had a worse UZR/150 in RF than Hawpe, though that's certainly a combination of unfamiliarity and sample size. Hawpe certainly did plenty of damage with the bat overall, earning a spot in the All-Star Game and peaking with a .353 batting average on June 3, the final game before the Rockies reeled off "The Streak."

Brad Hawpe

#11 / Right Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 22, 1979

2010 in Preview

This has been much discussed here. After making $5.75mil last season, Hawpe is due $7.5mil in 2010 in the last year of the 3-year extension he signed after Rocktober07. With Colorado's very notable outfield depth, Hawpe is most valuable as a trade chip. Dan O'Dowd and Jim Tracy continuously act as if trading Hawpe is the last thing on their minds, which of course means nothing. If Hawpe is moved, Carlos Gonzalez will be in right. However, I'm getting a strong feeling the FO will side with loyalty, holding onto a GenR slugger when a cheaper and talented replacement gets pushed to the bench. Sound familiar?

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Andre Ethier made a habit of clubbing clutch (5th in MLB in WPA) home runs and getting big hits that helped Los Angeles push forth to a division title. He was rewarded with a Silver Slugger, making Manny Ramirez the only Dodger OF without the honor in 2009. Notice Ethier did not also earn a Gold Glove with Matt Kemp, and that's certainly no mistake. Though Hawpe was the worst NL OF via UZR, Ethier was second.

Andre Ethier

#16 / Right Field / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Apr 10, 1982

2010 in Preview

Ethier will be starter, with his salary due to be decided at an arbitration hearing, unless the team can reach an agreement beforehand. Last season, the Dodgers compromised before the hearing and offered a $3.1mil salary. It will be interesting to see how Ned Colletti plays it with the possibly cash-strapped franchise. The club has Ethier, Kemp, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Russell Martin and George Sherrill all eligible for arbitration this offseason. If they choose not to negotiate a compromise, Colletti could save some money if he wins a sufficient number of arbitration cases. Of course, he could get burned and see a player like Kemp or Ethier be awarded a much higher salary.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Brian Giles was supposed to be a reliable veteran for Bud Black in the lineup. However, Giles hit under the Mendoza line, played poor defense and showed little power in 249 PA before succumbing to a season-ending knee injury. Will Venable played superb defense while showing promise with the bat over nearly the same amount of playing time, while Kyle Blanks (a converted first baseman) posted a .400 wOBA in 83 PA.

Will Venable

#25 / Right Field / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 29, 1982

2010 in Preview

Giles was declined arbitration, so he is out of the picture. If the club indeed trades Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley can move to third, with Venable and Blanks taking the corners. If this doesn't happen, it will be either Venable or Blanks in right. My money is on Venable, who can handle the outfield without a problem defensively. However, Bill James projected Blanks for well over a 100 more PA. Both are under complete team control

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants continue to have sneaky good showing due to defense. Randy Winn's best days offensively are clearly behind him, but he still posted the best UZR in the division, good enough to place him third in the player rankings. I would also like to point out his veterany thriftiness on the bases, successfully stealing in 14 of his 16 attempts.

Randy Winn

#2 / Left Field / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jun 09, 1974

2010 in Preview

San Francisco declined arbitration on Winn, effectively opening up a free-for-all for AB's in right field. Nate Schierholtz has the strongest claim, as his superior defense and potentially solid bat make him an intriguing option. Bill James optimistically projects a .338 wOBA from him in 2010. Brian Sabean really ought to be looking elsewhere for an upgrade or at least insurance, because that .338 is probably a bit optimistic. John Bowker, Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres are other underwhelming internal options.

Tuesday Rockpile: Rafael Betancourt is officially a Rockie again

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:40:58 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

These two guys' fates seem to have shifted a bit.

Browse more photos »

Some GM's, like David Dombrowski, choose to use the Winter Meetings to contact every team about Edwin Jackson - including the Rockies - only to pull him off the table. Instead, it seems Dan O'Dowd spent the majority of his time secluded in his room talking with his own players' agents yesterday.

Dan O'Dowd and Rafael Betancourt had danced in and out of option year, two year contract and three year contract discussions, with the Betancourt ultimately accepting arbitration (Renck) late last night. He'll likely make close to what he did had the Rockies exercised his option.

Thomas Harding reports that, as expected, Jason Marquis has declined arbitration (Harding), rewarding the Rockies with a sandwich pick for having the guts to risk dealing with his eight figure salary had he accepted. In truth, you would be hard pressed to find a more clearcut case for declining $10+mil guaranteed around the league.

Troy Renck reported that O'Dowd has been working on multi-year deals for Huston Street, Clint Barmes and Chris Iannetta, as fanshotted below by Hizilla. Street has been seeking $30mil, but the ultimate offer should be closer to $25mil.

As for locking up Iannetta (Harding), the deal is a buy-low contract that would buy out his arbitration years. It would be unlikely to pay him much more than he would receive those years. Harding notes that Iannetta actually improved his slugging percentage last season by twenty points. Who knew? A quick note from the bottom of the article. Dan O'Dowd said "[Franklin Morales] is going back into our bullpen."

As noted early in the day, the Rockies cleared space for Ryan Spilborghs (Harding). In deciding not to sell low on the gaucho, Dan O'Dowd had to tell Matt Murton he was once again squeezed from a deserved MLB roster spot. He was then sold to a team in Japan. I hope he can return to get another shot on this side of the Pacific in 2011.

For a brief wrap of NL West Rumors from the meetings, take the jump.

Arizona

MLBTR reports several teams are interested in reliever JJ Putz, including Arizona.

The Diamondbacks reportedly pushed yesterday's blockbuster trade, in which they would send Max Scherzer and one or two prospects while receiving Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. The deal would also involve Curtis Granderson. While Joel Sherman called the deal dead and Buster Olney is "unsure if the embers can be re-lit", there is one optimist. Jon Paul Morosi reports it is still a possibility.

Arizona beat writer Nick Piecoro's head must have been spinning, as he clearly disagreed with the idea of offering Scherzer for Jackson.

Los Angeles

While Los Angeles has no plans to decrease payroll (Dylan Hernandez, LA Times), they don't seem to be in much of a place of power. The Mets reportedly agreed to send Luis Castillo to Los Angeles for Juan Pierre, a move that would improve the Dodgers' starting lineup and take an expensive bench player off the books, but Ned Colletti wants pitching in return.

The Blue Jays talked to the Dodgers about Roy Halladay (Jayson Stark) but there is expectedly no match there

Colletti is also open to dealing lefty George Sherrill.

San Diego

The Padres will apparently non-tender Kevin Correia MLBTR), who was clearly their most valuable pitcher from start to finish. The former Giant had just a $750k base salary last season. It's a very sad cheap move from the Friars, but I guess they'll need to the money to pay their closer. While Heath Bell is one of their most enticing trade chips, San Diego's new GM Jed Hoyer seems inclined to keep Bell (Corey Brock, MLB.com), who would garner about a $5mil salary next season.

San Diego has also been linked to outfielder Reed Johnson (Bill Center, San Diego Union Tribune) and are now on the prowl for a backup catcher with the loss of Henry Blanco (Center).

San Francisco

St. Louis put a dent in the Giants' rotational depth, as the Cards signed Brad Penny to a one -year $7.5mil base salary contract (Buster Olney). He will likely have a physical tomorrow to complete the deal.

MLB.com's Chris Haft has some Giants nuggets - Eugenio Velez or Andres Torres will be their leadoff hitter, neither Pablo Sandoval nor Ryan Garko will catch at all next year, and the Giants might attempt to acquire Juan Rivera if the Angels sign Jason Bay.

Speaking of Garko, he is still "on the bubble" for being non-tendered a contract, according to Sabean (Andrew Baggarly).

Only one NL team remains a serious player for Dan Uggla, that team being San Francisco (Joe Frisaro, MLB.com). The Orioles are the most likely landing spot.

NL West in Review: Center Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:30:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Don't forget about this guy.

Browse more photos »

Matt Kemp was a beast this season, but that doesn't mean the Dodgers had the best CF spot last season. For the second straight week, Los Angeles surprisingly gets pushed to second place by a team without a primary starter.

San Diego started the season with Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut platooning in center field, but by the All-Star break, both had been jettisoned, with the only returning position player being their new center fielder who had been in AAA all season to that point.

But don't let Petco Park and the constant new faces fool you. The Padres were strong in center field last season.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Diego	6	.292	17	65	.356	.445	.358	5.37
2. Los Angeles	4	.292	24	98	.350	.472	.371	4.97
3. San Francisco	4	.266	17	79	.305	.419	.332	2.76
4. Colorado	4	.269	17	58	.345	.451	.341	2.14
5. Arizona	5	.219	17	61	.288	.379	.291	-1.18

Hairston saved almost all his San Diego offense for his CF starts, posting a ridiculous .458 wOBA in 148 PA. His eventual replacement, Tony Gwynn Jr, had the best OBP in the division outside of Hairston matched with fantastic defensive play. That was enough to supersede the Dodgers, who had neutral defense and just a 13 point wOBA* edge. This can teach us two things - it is indeed a team game, and don't discredit the Padres' offense, as Petco Park can mask a lot.

All the proof and stats are under the fold.

Here's your visual breakdown, with the CF positional RAR set at +2.5. The Dodgers' team UZR is indeed included; however, it is equal to exactly zero:

The bottom three slots of the NL West's 23 center fielders are occupied by Diamondbacks. For the full player rankings, click here.

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

Chris Young was supposed to be an anchor to a Diamondbacks lineup with visions of a division title. Instead second worst defensive CF in the division (via UZR) and battled the Mendoza line most of the season. Given his performance in recent years and underwhelming showings from his replacements, Young was given a long leash, one in which he finally turned into a strong(er) finish, highlighted by a 3 HR performance at Coors Field.

Chris Young

#24 / Center Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 05, 1983

2010 in Preview

In reality, Young's disappointing 2009 didn't come out of left field. He might have been one of the more overrated hitters in the game before the season; taking park adjustments into account, he has just as many above league average (wRAA) hitting seasons as I do - zero. His OBP marks in his three seasons plus 2006 callup are as follows: .306, .295, .315, .311. He is an ultimate hit or miss hitter, and the reality is he might not be longterm answer. Unfortunately for Arizona, he just finished out the first year of a 5-year $28mil extension expiring after the 2013 season. The 26 year old will make $3.25mil next year and will be given a shot to show he can be more consistent and effective.

Colorado

2009 in Review

As expected, the Rockies appear to have a pedestrian showing due to Dexter Fowler's epicly low UZR score. This is a good time to mention UZR's apparent disdain for Rockies' CFers, as Willy Taveras has two seasons with a UZR lower than +8. Both came with the Rockies, and both were below negative two. Fowler had an uneven but nonetheless impressive season for a prospect who surprisingly leapt from AA to start Opening Day. Carlos Gonzalez put up big numbers in CF, much coming when Fowler was injured late in the year. Despite far less PA, CarGo produced more overall for the Rockies than Fowler (remember the UZR thing).

Carlos Gonzalez

#5 / Center Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 17, 1985

2010 in Preview

Fowler was pegged as a great defensive player in the minors, so it will be interesting to see how UZR treats him in the future. While some of his poor score may be typical UZR hootenanny, he did have his uneven moments that could be improved. As it stands now, he will get the majority of reps in center, but if Brad Hawpe isn't traded, Carlos Gonzalez could cut a good portion of ABs from Fowler with Smith starting in left.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Matt Kemp should have been an All-Star. He earned the NL Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for center fielders, so unsurprisingly he trounces the division individually. He is truly a five tool player, and he could easily post a .300-30-100 season with 30+ SB's next year. An absolute beast, or Bison, as he is called. It really makes you wonder what Joe Torre was looking at when penciling him in the bottom three spots in the lineup 70 times last season.

Matt Kemp

#27 / Center Field / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 23, 1984

2010 in Preview

Kemp will be in center field nearly every day next season, probably higher than seventh in the lineup. He just missed being arbitration eligible via being a Super Two, so he will be quite the bargain again in 2010.

San Diego

2009 in Review

As outlined above, a tag team of Scott Hairston in the first half and Tony Gwynn Jr in the second half made the Padres quite formidable. Will Venable also raked the ball to the tune of a .468 wOBA over 53 CF PA.

Tony Gwynn

#18 / Center Field / San Diego Padres

Height: 5-11

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 04, 1982

2010 in Preview

In my opinion, the Padres made a trade for Gwynn that put them in a difficult spot, a la Dan Hawkins. How do you get rid of the son of a Hall of Fame franchise hero if he doesn't cut it? Luckily for San Diego, Gwynn did cut it last season, and the Friars should be confident putting him in center full time in 2010. The 27-year old barely has a year of MLB service time, so he is still under complete team control for cheap.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Aaron Rowand was an All-Star and received MVP votes in 2007 with Philadelphia. Brian Sabean promptly overpaid to bring Rowand in. He has been overwhelmingly average in his tenure by the bay - in fact, Fangraphs crowned him the third most average hitter in 2009.

Aaron Rowand

#33 / Center Field / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-0

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 29, 1977

2010 in Preview

With three years and $36million remaining on that bad contract, Rowand is sufficiently entrenched in center field in the near future. He had a complete no-trade clause last season, but has a "limited no-trade clause" each of the three years. I'm fine if he stays in San Francisco until 2012.

Tuesday Rockpile: Arbitration offer deadline is today - Rockies to decide on Betancourt

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:28:46 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Arbitration: some people get it, and some people just don't.

Browse more photos »

It is December 1, meaning today is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration, at least to qualify for draft pick compensation. Betancourt is likely the only Rockie to receive salary arbitration offer, writes Troy Renck, leaving Joe Beimel, Jason Marquis and Yorvit Torrealba free. Betancourt is a no-brainer. If he accepts arbitration, he'll make less than he would have made had the Rockies exercised his option, but if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Rockies will receive two high and shiny draft picks. Also, as WolfMarauder noted, Troy Renck also suggests the Rockies are interested in Fernando Tatis, Bobby Crosby, Rich Aurilia, Justin Duchsherer and Miguel Batista.

On a national scale, MLBTradeRumors has spent time inquiring the minds of beat writers everywhere to compile his Arbitration Offer Predictions For Free Agents.

Two highlights from FOX Sports Offseason Buzz: the Rockies will likely keep Ryan Spilborghs and the Diamondbacks are looking at improving via trade rather than free agency.

The Rockies received their postseason share (Renck). Their share of the player's pool totaled over $1.77mil. Just as the Rockies did with the family of Mike Coolbaugh, the Angels awarded a full share to the family of Nick Adenhart.

Samuel Deduno is a hot name on Rockies' farm (Harding). The 26-year old could be a strong dark horse to join the bullpen next season if the cards fall right.

Thomas Harding also writes that "about 200" broadcasters have applied for the job to replace Jeff Kingery in the radio booth. The club will decide sometime in "early 2010," which only tells us they are handing it out as a holiday gift.

Speaking of broadcasters, Chip Caray is out at TBS, a divorce reported as mutual. Hat tip to RhodeIslandRoxFan

It is certainly a bleak year for free agent pitching. The Hardball Times searched for someone to best compare top free agent John Lackey to, and you might like the comparison. Click under the fold to find out:

Clone Wars: John Lackey and Jason Hammel
That's right, Jason Hammel.

W ERA K BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 GB% HR/FB% FIP BABIP
John Lackey 11 3.83 139 47 1.27 7.09 2.40 44.9% 9.1% 3.73 0.309
Jason Hammel 10 4.33 133 42 1.39 6.78 2.14 46.2% 9.7% 3.71 0.337

Granted, the author isn't saying Hammel is as good of a bet to best Lackey next season, but for your value either in a fantasy draft pick or salary dollar, which pitcher would you rather have?

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 19:16:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

A Rockies' draft pick was the most valuable LF in the NL West last season. It wasn't this guy though...

Browse more photos »

Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division. When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC. How did they do it? UZR, of course.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	5	.269	11	59	.328	.411	.340	4.66
2. Los Angeles	4	.302	18	86	.407	.469	.377	4.57
3. Colorado	5	.268	20	74	.332	.440	.346	3.94
4. Arizona	6	.265	13	82	.319	.310	.402	2.10
5. San Diego	8	.250	12	76	.325	.371	.320	0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

This time, I have included the full rankings. I'm still messing with the format, so let me know if this blinds you:

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

One of the great surprises in the above list is Eric Byrnes' appearance higher on the list than rookie Gerardo Parra. The crash test dummy did almost all of his offensive damage in 2009 as a left fielder, while his UZR far outpaced any of his brethren. It turns out somersaults are worth 0.5 UZR each. Parra, meanwhile, treated D-Backs fans to a rookie season slightly above average with both the bat and glove.

2010 in Preview

Parra is only 22, so his rookie season was notable. Arizona should feel confident going forward with Parra as their primary left fielder in 2010, although he doesn't have the ceiling of a Carlos Gonzalez. Josh Byrnes will likely purge Eric Byrnes and his $11mil salary before the season starts.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Even though Seth Smith did his best work from the bench and had only a half season's worth of PA's from LF, the former Rebel was within a stone's throw from the NL West's top spot. Mr. Late Night hit and scored a run from all nine slots in the batting order and hit lefties at just 25 OPS points lower than vs righties. Carlos Gonzalez was strong in his 133 PA, while Ryan Spilborghs provided a strong glove and average bat from the right side.

2010 in Preview

If Dan O'Dowd indeed moves Brad Hawpe, the job will belong to Seth Smith. If not, the Rockies' outfield carousel will continue, forcing Smith to give up ABs to CarGo and Spilly. The Bill James projection, usually optimistic for batters, projects a 14-point wOBA drop from Smith to .369.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Even after being suspended for 50 games, Manny Ramirez achieved the most PAs among NL West LF's. He led the divison in every stat except batting average and UZR. Juan Pierre replaced Ramirez admirably, enough that his contributions in even surpassed Manny. But even after having the top two LFs in the division in 2009, they were only second to the Giants.

2010 in Preview

Ramirez will make $20mil in the second and final year of the contract he signed with Los Angeles on March 4. He is the clear starter for 2010, even though his bat speed has started to slow.

San Diego

2009 in Review

The top rated Padre was a rookie first baseman thrown out to left field for 53 PA's, ranked 13th. That should tell you what you need to know. Chase Headley was the main starter, but the converted third baseman is still clearly trying to find his way as an outfielder, and he struggled with the bat most of the year, at least until he took over for an injured Kouzmanoff at third.

2010 in Preview

With Kouzmanoff entrenched still as the third baseman, Chase Headley will be stuck in left field again in 2010. He is under complete team control financially, so it would be especially nice for San Diego if he lived up to the 31-point wOBA leap Bill James is projecting from him in 2010.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants were the surprise winner from the 7-spot. All five players who played there achieved positive UZRs, including John Bowker, giving the Giants 2.5 WAR just on defense. Eugenio Velez hit very well in left (yet struggled at second), while Fred Lewis and Randy Winn provided notable value in spite of pedestrian offensive numbers.

2010 in Preview

This spot may be the most interesting to follow in the offseason. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have been linked to the Giants, but it appears San Francisco will favor multiple smaller fish instead. The club's 2009 WAR in LF is pretty flukey, as multiple players hit better in LF than at other positions, and I don't quite trust that UZR. It would be a good place to improve. If no one is added, that Velez/Lewis/Torres/Schierholtz hodgepodge will continue.

Tuesday Rockpile: Pujols to be crowned today

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:37:43 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Tulo just beats out Pujols here. That won't happen today.

Browse more photos »

The NL MVP award will be going back to St. Louis today at 11am MST. Albert Pujols won the award in 2005 and 2008. Aside from landslide drama, we might be interested to see where Troy Tulowitzki ends up on ballots. The MLB.com article made a serious mistake in appointing two Nationals as "dark horses" while leaving Tulo's name completely out of the article.

Tracy Ringolsby acknowledges the Rockies don't have a contender for MVP, but he still made sure purple would find its way on the voting tapestry with his vote:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Chase Utley
4. Hanley Ramirez
5. Prince Fielder
6. Andre Ethier
7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Huston Street
10. Adam Wainwright

Free agent talk

MLB Rumors recently posted their Offseason Oulook for the Rockies, coming to the conclusion we all know - they won't be spending much money this offseason.

Hat tip to RMN here: Jason Grilli has signed with a seventh team. Who that team is has yet to be announced, but we can be certain it isn't the Rockies. Grilli was 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA with Colorado in 2008, and after being traded to Texas for cash in June, he had an ERA under two for much of the season.

Buster Olney tweets that teams are being aggressive in their pursuit of Randy Wolf. That's not surprising given the weak FA class. Marc Hulet from Fangraphs warns that the lefty may be a a Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing. Perhaps he meant a sheep with a wolf's name.

It is looking likely that the Dodgers won't trade for Roy Halladay to replace Wolf, as Ned Colletti doesn't want to part with Chad Billingsley. A deal hear is widely considered "a long shot."

The Colorado native could still land in "Los Angeles" though. With J.P. Ricciardi gone, the Angels have renewed interest, as Toronto's new GM might not require Erick Aybar in return.

Lastly, Are Metrics Blinding Our Perception? - NYTimes.com "Welcome to the Age of Metrics - or to the End of Instinct."

NL West in Review: Catchers

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 01:07:32 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Only two NL West catchers were above league average with the bat in 2009 (by wOBA). Neither played on the Pacific coast.

Browse more photos »

Each of the past three years, the NL West has been home to an emerging and promising young catcher. In 2007, it was Russell Martin. In 2008 - it was Chris Iannetta's time to shine, and this season brought the surprising leap to prominence for Miguel Montero.

With Bengie Molina leaving in free agency, youth is served. Montero, Iannetta, Martin and Nick Hundley were all born the year before George Orwell's nightmare, and 22yo Buster Posey is waiting in the wings to take over soon. Of course, this article is meant to focus on 2009 though.

In past installments, the limitations of UZR have been illuminated, casting doubt on these numbers. So what could be worse than an inconsistent/inaccurate defensive metric? How about eliminating defense from consideration altogether. Fangraphs' WAR does just that for catchers, and given that I have been using their methodology, I was forced to as well. THT's Jeremy Greenhouse warns:

Do not place undue trust in WAR for catchers. How much of a catcher's value do you think is in his defense? I'll give you a hint: it's a lot. FanGraphs has unfortunately yet to give an effort to quantifying this vital aspect of the game, other than with the positional adjustment. In fact, catchers should possibly be considered a separate group of players with a separate replacement level and therefore be treated as different from all other position players.

Now, given that I have ruined the legitimacy of all ensuing data, let's look at the numbers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.266	22	79	.352	.437	.342	4.09
2. Colorado	4	.255	18	89	.343	.415	.329	3.28
3. Los Angeles	3	.259	8	69	.342	.338	.314	2.46
4. San Francisco	5	.257	21	89	.280	.409	.301	1.72
5. San Diego	4	.225	16	52	.293	.367	.299	1.56

The Diamondbacks rode the transformation of Montero from backup to cleanup hitter to the top of the division behind the dish. As noted above, defense is ignored in catcher WAR. With team replacement values and positional value essentially equivalent, offense is the only determining factor:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, click the words below.

As noted in the photo caption, only two of the 20 catchers (with 10+ PA) hit above the major league average wOBA.

Rank	Player	Team	PA	GS	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1	Miguel Montero	AZ	441	101	.295	16	55	.353	.483	.361	3.12
2	Russell Martin	LAD	568	133	.252	7	43	.349	.333	.318	2.42
3	Bengie Molina	SFG	505	120	.268	19	74	.287	.441	.313	1.98
4	Chris Iannetta	COL	345	87	.225	15	50	.340	.449	.333	1.85
5	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	242	61	.290	2	31	.351	.379	.328	1.22
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Buster Posey	SFG	16	4	.125	0	0	.125	.125	.226	-0.03
15	Luke Carlin	AZ	15	4	.200	0	1	.200	.200	.179	-0.07
16	A.J. Ellis	LAD	9	2	.111	0	1	.111	.111	.103	-0.09
17	Jose Lobaton	SDP	17	5	.176	0	0	.176	.176	.160	-0.10
18	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	110	28	.178	2	8	.200	.262	.201	-0.37

For a the full spreadsheet of the players rankings, team rankings and raw data, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

Miguel Montero had seemingly improved from 2007 to 2008, yet the franchise still saw him as a backup prior to the season. Six months later, he finished second only to Brian McCann in wOBA amongst NL Catchers. What's more impressive than that the 26-year old left-handed hitter posted better numbers against LHP than RHP.

2010 in Preview

Chris Snyder was supposed to be the franchise's cornerstone behind the dish, as they signed him to a 3-year, $18.25mil contract last offseason, but an inconsistent year marked by injuries in addition to Montero's breakout has placed Snyder on the chopping block. The Venezuelan is eligible for an arbitration raise from his $425k 2008 salary.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Chris Iannetta was supposed to be a budding star for Colorado in 2009 - after all, he had a higher wOBA in 2008 than any MLB catcher with 300+PA. Greater than Brain McCann. Better than Joe Mauer. But any way you slice it, 2009 was a great disappointment for CDI. He trapped himself with an uppercut swing (his flyball %age was greater than 50%) and saw his batting average plummet. Yorvit Torrealba relieved him down the stretch and his bat lit fire in all the right times. Even with Iannetta's fall from grace, the duo were still one of the National League's best. Now if only they could throw out baserunners...

2010 in Preview

Iannetta will be the starter next season to begin with - even in a disappointing year, he posted the second best wOBA among NL West catchers, even considering park adjustments. Unless Torrealba takes a pay cut, he will be gone. It's doubtful the club would pursue anyone outside of recently re-signed Paul Phillips to be #20's backup, though AA catcher Michael McKenry, who was just protected from the Rule 5 draft, could take that role at some point this season.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Russell Martin was both the NL Silver Slugger and Gold Glover just two years ago at the age of 24. Two years later, his power has disappeared and his middle-of-the-order bat has dropped to well below league average. He didn't hit a home run until June 20 this year. His IsoP has dropped about 60 points in each of the last two years. What's the cause of this? My first guess is overuse, as he also has a notable drop in first half/second half IsoP in his career. Still, by logging 568 PA behind the dish, Martin accrued far more positional and replacement RAR than any catcher in the division, giving him a second place showing this season.

2010 in Preview

Los Angeles avoided arbitration with Martin last year by signing him to a one-year $3.5mil contract, a 780% increase from 2008. Even after by far the worst season of his career, he could earn up to $6mil in arbitration. Buster Olney has suggested that might make the Dodgers consider trading Martin in a sell-low move, but if Toronto bites for Martin in a Halladay package, it would be worth it. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, there wouldn't be much in terms of in house replacements for Martin. I doubt he will be traded, although the McCourt divorce wild card does a fair job of complicating things.

San Diego

2009 in Review

The Padres were the only team not to appear in the top five, though Nick Hundley and Henry Blanco finished sixth and seventh respectively. The two were essentially the same players offensively in 2009, with an average near .240, OBP in the .310's and slugging percentage at about .400. Eliezer Alfonzo was a complete deadweight replacement in his 107 PA though, and the team fell to the bottom of the pack.

2010 in Preview

San Diego is fine with their cheap youth movement, so the 26-year old Nick Hundley's job should be safe - he is under complete team control financially. Blanco, who I like a lot as a backup, is a free agent, as is Alfonzo.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Bengie Molina was one of the worst cleanup hitters in the past half milennium. His .287 OBP is painful to see in print, and his slugging percentage didn't even best Chris Iannetta. But given the 2nd most PA in the division, he cracked the top three. Eli Whiteside had an even worse OBP in 133 PA.

2010 in Preview

The franchise hasn't been shy about suggesting the Buster Posey might start the season at AAA. With Bengie Molina expected to leave in free agency, San Francisco will have to add a catcher in free agency if they want to keep Posey's seat warm. Troy Renck wrote last night to keep an eye on Yorvit Torrealba for that role. It makes a lot of sense from both sides. However, even starting Posey Opening Day might not be a bad idea. CHONE projects him to post a .325 wOBA next season, compared to Molina's .308 performance in 2009.

Poll

Considering all we know financially, who should be the Rockies' backup catcher to start the 2010 season?

Yorvit Torrealba

32 votes

Paul Phillips

107 votes

Michael McKenry

39 votes

Brian Schneider

10 votes

A different low level free agent

7 votes

A different non-roster invitee

4 votes

Chris Iannetta

25 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:20:54 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

Browse more photos »

The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted. I recommend switching to wide view to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link. However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Player	Pos	Age	G	HR	RBI	SB	CS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Helton, Todd	1B	36	134	13	68	0	1	582	.284	.385	.430	.364
Young, Eric	2B	25	149	8	38	39	18	547	.276	.347	.398	.332
Barmes, Clint	2B	31	136	15	58	8	6	509	.258	.306	.420	.314
Stewart, Ian	3B	25	145	22	75	6	4	499	.263	.349	.483	.359
Iannetta, Chris	C	27	105	15	53	0	0	384	.260	.370	.465	.367
Fowler, Dexter	CF	24	124	4	31	21	11	414	.271	.365	.391	.338
Smith, Seth	OF	27	135	15	60	4	2	428	.291	.374	.489	.376
Hawpe, Brad	OF	31	144	23	86	1	2	572	.271	.365	.482	.368
Gonzalez, Carlos	OF	24	134	15	66	12	6	462	.285	.342	.478	.354
Murton, Matt	OF	28	129	10	52	5	2	438	.280	.349	.427	.343
Spilborghs, Ryan	OF	30	127	10	49	7	4	398	.271	.352	.424	.342
Tulowitzki, Troy	SS	25	142	22	80	10	8	580	.292	.369	.497	.373

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch? The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy. They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA. Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games. The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008. The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs. Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants. In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams. They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season. Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday. It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan. Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay? Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI. The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths. Who would you rather have on your team in 2010? Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

NL West in Review: Shortstops

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:32:27 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

If UZR wasn't so strangely hard on Tulo, the Rockies' shortstop would be even higher above his competition.

View full size photo »

This is about as suspenseful as a modern day cookie-cutter horror flick. Not even our pudgy four-letter Philly fan can deny the proper anointment of the NL West's top shortstop in 2009. However, it wasn't quite so clear just last March.

Coming off of a miserable 0.8 WAR season in 2008 (at the same level as Brian Barton and Carlos Gonzalez), Troy Tulowitzki silenced all critics in 2009, giving the Rockies a clear advantage over every team in the West. In fact, the 6.85 WAR that Tulo, Barmes and Quintanilla generated represent the strongest infield position of any team in the division.

Even considering Tulo's down year, the preseason projections had the Rockies as clear favorites in the NL West, with Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego following in order. Colorado delivered in a big way, representing the division's sole above average offensive unit. Everth Cabrera's surprising rookie season ruined what would have otherwise been an accurate ranking:


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Colorado	3	.298	32	96	.377	.536	.387	6.85
2. Los Angeles	4	.271	9	54	.330	.371	.321	3.64
3. Arizona	3	.265	12	73	.332	.417	.326	2.49
4. San Diego	4	.231	4	43	.319	.328	.304	1.98
5. San Francisco	4	.255	11	72	.306	.353	.296	0.74

Shortstop was the most stable position among divisional infield positions, as all five teams had clear full-time starters from start to finish. With the positional RAR set at +7.5, here is the graphical RAR representation:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, turn the corner.

Seventeen different men manned shortstop, including Josh Wilson twice (for San Diego and Arizona), and all but five were above replacement level:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	628	.296	32	92	.377	.551	.362	-1.2	5.07
2	Rafael Furcal	LAD	671	.266	8	45	.331	.368	.321	8.0	3.24
3	Stephen Drew	AZ	586	.262	12	65	.320	.432	.334	3.4	3.00
4	Everth Cabrera	SDP	437	.255	2	31	.343	.362	.335	-11.7	0.84
5	Augie Ojeda	AZ	116	.289	0	6	.381	.371	.331	3.2	0.83
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Blake DeWitt	LAD	5	.000	0	0	.200	.000	.141	-0.4	-0.08
15	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	119	.196	1	6	.314	.268	.272	-1.8	-0.12
16	Kevin Frandsen	SFG	20	.056	0	0	.150	.056	.119	-0.2	-0.21
17	Chris Burke	SDP	76	.214	1	5	.276	.314	.268	-2.6	-0.23
18	Josh Wilson	SDP	42	.108	0	1	.195	.162	.141	-2.0	-0.55

For a the full spreadsheet of the players rankings, team rankings and raw data, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

After a spectacular second half the previous season, the bright young shortstop took a huge nosedive with the bat this season, falling from a near elite shortstop to a below average league bat. Sound familiar? Augie Ojeda also performed well in 116 PA to usurp Renteria for the fifth most valuable shortstop in the division, just a tenth of a run behind Everth Cabrera for fourth.

2010 in Preview

Diamondbacks fans are hoping for a Tulowitzki-like bounce-back year in 2010 from Drew. Arizona's 2004 first-round pick made $1.5mil last season and is up for arbitration.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Remember in May back when even Rowbots were drawing parallels between Tulo and Khalil Greene/Bobby Crosby? I hardly do myself. Four months later, Tulo finished the season as MLB's third-most valuable shortstop. For some reason, UZR pegs Tulo as a below average MLB shortstop, which is clearly fishy. That plus April/May make his season's ranking all the more incredible. Clint Barmes was solid in in 49 PA, enough to finish seventh in the NL West despite no home runs and four RBIs.

2010 in Preview

Troy Tulowitzki made a paltry $1million in 2009, the second year of a six year contract. He is guaranteed $3.5million next year, but hopefully, he'll cash in with more. He'll pocket $25k each for a Gold Glove and All-Star appearance and $50k with a Silver Slugger.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Rafael Furcal was borderline MVP caliber to start 2008, but after an early summer injury, he never really recovered. 2009 started poorly as well, as Furcal hit below .250 for almost the entire first half. The former Brave was saved by an 8.0 UZR - quite strange in that he was average or below average every year of his career up to 2009, and only Elvis Andrus was more valuable defensively. I'm not sure I buy that. Chin-Ling Hu, Blake DeWitt and Juan Castro washed out to about replacement level.

2010 in Preview

Furcal was a below average bat last season, not what Los Angeles was hoping for after signing him to a 3-year $30mil deal before the season. He'll be making $8.5million next season, a value he has reached four of the last five years (Fangraphs). Still at 32, he could certainly regress.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Everth Cabrera was the full-time starter for the Padres at shortstop minus two months he missed with a fractured bone in his hand. The Rule 5 pick impressed greatly with his bat after jumping from A-ball, with a park-adjusted .335 wOBA, comfortably above league average. However, he struggled greatly defensively, as the Rockies saw first hand. His UZR was worst in the division and fourth worst in MLB. Luis Rodriguez was essentially the worst shortstop in the division who got any real number of ABs, but Chris Burke and the San Diego version of Josh Wilson join him as three of the five below replacement level contributors.

2010 in Preview

After an impressive rookie year, Bud Black will be writing Cabrera's name in his line-up card with great regularity. Everth should get a slight bump from the league minimum in 2010, but it won't be much.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Edgar Renteria's best days appear to be behind him. The 34-year old Colombian was less than half as productive as his prior career-worst season. His .288 wOBA is just pathetic - even Garrett Atkins was better, and he wasn't a defensive asset either. Juan Uribe was solid as a backup, with Ryan Rohlinger and Kevin Frandsen also got some reps.

2010 in Preview

Edgar Renteria was one of the first signings last offseason, before the market crashed. Consequently, his contract looks silly now, as he just finished the first year of a two year $18million contract. Nine million of that will come in 2010, with an obvious $500k buyout to be exercised next offseason. The option year in 2010 is for $10.5million. If Renteria falters there more, the Giants could do a lot worse than using Juan Uribe there.