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2012 LSU Baseball Preview: The Pitchers
I know we're all a bit worried about the hitting. There's a real lack of true stars, and we will be relying pretty heavily on JUCO transfers and freshmen to pan out. It's not quite the ideal situation. I will point out that the team returns 6 or 7 starters from a team that finished 3rd in the SEC in runs scored. The other reason we might not need to panic just yet is that the pitching staff looks like it is sort of awesome.
I don't think LSU has ever had a three man rotation that looks this good. Sure, we've had one-two punches that might have been better, but LSU will trot out a guy who could start on Fridays for most teams on all three days of the weekend. There's a preseason All-American on the staff and then almost no drop off from there. It's a pretty great staff. It needs to be.
2012 LSU Baseball Preview: The Outfield
Mikie Mahtook is not walking through that door. You cannot replace 383/496/709 plus 29 stolen bases. You can't even dream of replacing that. Mahtook got on base nearly half of the time, and hit for power. And was a terror on the base paths.
Photo courtesy of LSUsports.net
We miss you, Mikie.
Given the low run scoring environment modern college baseball now exists in, relatively speaking, that is right up there with any season in LSU history. It's Todd Walker-esque, especially once you make an era adjustment. Mahtook was a great, great player.
So, now that we're all depressed, let's see what we have in the outfield this year.
RF
Mason Katz (Jr) 337/371/532
Boys and girls, here's the best returning offensive player on the team. Go look at Mahtook's numbers again. It's okay to start drinking. It's not unreasonable to expect some improvement in Katz's game, but that's not going to get him anywhere near Mahtook's orbit. The good news is, since there's no one big bopper in the middle of the order, Mainieri will be less inclined to go bunt-crazy again, to set the table for no one. I'm reaching real hard for a silver lining. I don't want to rip on Katz, because he is a good player, but he's not a guy you build an offense around. The mantra is balance.
CF
JaCoby Jones (Jr) 338/395/467
Jones' takes over Mahtook's spot in centerfield, which should mean at least we will be able to replace Mahtook's glove. In fact, up the middle defense is a team strength. You can tell this team is built with the elite pitching staff in mind, as LSU will trot out a plus defender at catcher, second, short, and center. Jones is a legitimate leadoff man who can get on at a 400 clip and steal bases pretty well. He stole 12 last season, the returning leader.
LSU is losing 46 stolen bases represented by two players, Mahtook and Watkins. Now, I've whined about losing Mahtook enough, but I'm not too concerned about the loss of Watkins and his 17 stolen bases. Those steals came at the cost of a dismal 226/351/316 line. Jones is an improvement every which way over that, and he should hold down the leadoff spot all year.
LF
Raph Rhymes (Jr) 360/424/486
Arby Fields (Jr)** JUCO
Fields led Northwestern's football team in rushing in 2010. Now, he is LSU's right fielder. He's another Chad Jones (WOOOO!!!) type - a physical football player who also happens to be able to swing a bat. More importantly, he can run the bases and draw a walk. He also led Northwestern's baseball team in doubles, so he has gap power, but that says more about his speed than his power. Fields could be a nice back of the order switch-hitter or at the very least, a good option of the bench.
Rhymes will start the season as the DH or at first due to his injured shoulder limiting his ability to throw. I'm terrified this means he also will be unable to hit, and that the recovery will sap all of his power. Given how last season went, LSU is due some luck. Even if Rhymes can't hit for power, he did steal 8 bases last year, so he's still a threat to run and he is the team's returning OBP leader. Once again, balance.
The bad news here is that the outfield is missing a singular talent like Mahtook. The good news is that every spot in the lineup will be manned by a pretty darn capable hitter, even if they lack depth. The problem last year was too many easy outs -- it seems that a lot of those problems may have been solved.
Tomorrow, the Pitchers OR yeah, they are that good.
2012 LSU Baseball Preview: The Infield
Move aside, basketball and recruiting geeks -- baseball is back!
I'm not going to lie -- I think LSU got absolutely screwed by the committee last year. But, last year is last year, and Mainieri needs to improve the team to make this year's tourney, and improve it while losing the team's best player. No small task.
The failures of last season have many causes, but perhaps the biggest cause -- other than Mainieri's unfortunately obsession with throwing away outs -- was way too many unproductive spots in the order. And most of those unproductive spots were infielders. LSU needs to see some upgrades in the infield to contend.
Photo courtesy of: :http://www.sportsnola.com/sports/lsu/573493-shortstop-austin-nola-to-return-to-lsu-for-his-senior-season.html
The stat line is AVG/OBP/SLG.
* denotes left handed hitter.
C
Ty Ross (So) 223/295/277
Jordy Snikeris (Sr) 259/333/259
Speaking of unproductive spots in the order. Let's not mince words, Ty Ross was miserable at the plate last season. He's a good defensive player, too good to just bench for his weak bat. But this is downright ridiculous. If you can't get on at a 30% rate, that's just unacceptable. Really, all we can do is hope he turns it around, and it was just a matter of a freshman being a bit overwhelmed at his first bit of action. See how much Nola has improved from offensive liability to top player on the team.
Delusional Optimism Is Mad We Haven't Celebrated
"Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is." -- The Outlaw Josey Wales
All right, people. Break's over.
The title game sucked, and it was okay to take an appropriate mourning period for the ruination of what was only the greatest regular season in the history of college football. Stuff like that takes time to get over. Well, we've had a month. It's over. Time to get back on that horse and move on.
It's time to stop apologizing for our season. LSU finished #2 in the nation and BEAT three of the four other teams in the top five. Acting like we're some mediocre team that just got lucky all year is a tremendous disservice to this team. This team was awesome. Hell, the team still is awesome, as a lot of the key components are coming back and we should expect radically improved QB play.
Unless you went to Alabama, you could only hope your team had as good of a season as we had. And even Alabama needed a successful public relations campaign to get a second chance to salvage their season. Was it fair? Who cares? My momma told me that fair is just a weather condition. And while LSU fans may have gotten the short end of the BCS stick this year, we also rooted for a two-loss national champion in 2007. The BCS giveth, the BCS taketh away.
More than anything, we need to stop caring what other people think. If you're reading this and you aren't an LSU fan - I do not care what you think of our program. Nothing personal, I don't expect you to care what I think of Random State U, either. But LSU fans need to stop looking outwards and reading every press clipping for even the barest slight.
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The Pain of Hope
It's been a week and a half, and it still hurts.
LSU had a historically great season slip through their fingers, capped off by probably the worst game the team has played in two years. It's not like the season wasn't full of accomplishments and triumphs - the SEC title, NICKNAME REDACTED making it to New York for the Heisman presentation, an undefeated regular season against the nation's toughest schedule - but it all pales in comparison to 21-0.
Why does the pain of the way the season ended somehow dwarf the joy of three months of dominant football? Such is the danger of hope. When you have hope, when you believe with every part of your being, it makes the crash that much harder. It's coming down off of the high, and coming down in a bad way.
OK, the almost unending stream of bad news surrounding the program in addition to the big loss hasn't helped. Recruits defecting, players going pro, and rumors of fights flying.* When the Wheel of Fortuna turned, she turned like a bitch. It was like the dam burst.
*ED NOTE - I know we've said this a few times, but stop reading the Columnist Who Must Not Be Named. He's a professional agitator and it's your own fault for getting riled up by the bile he spews. It would also be in your best interest to stop listening to secondhand rumors you got from guy who knows the inside scoop because his best friend's sister is dating the waterboy.
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Alabama A Lot, LSU Nothing
Well, we got our asses kicked. Completely and totally kicked in. There's not much else to say than that.
But on a night in which LSU's offense didn't even muster 100 yards, it is absolutely unfathomable why Jarrett Lee could not get meaningful snaps.I spent the second half wishing that LSU had a pocket QB with the ability to throw the ball deep, only to be reminded that indeed we had one sitting on the bench.
Maybe Lee couldn't have lead a comeback, as Alabama's defense looked stout all night long. But to not even attempt to change things up, especially when Jefferson was only trying short underneath routes in the fourth quarter and needing some big yards, was a monumental coaching blunder that defies explanation.
What a damned waste of a game. That was a miserable game made worse by the fact that the coaching staff didn't even try anything to change things up. It's one thing to lose. It's even another to get dominated. But to get dominated why you just passively take it is beyond frustrating.
You may use this thread as your place to vent, and to question Saban's parentage.
Delusional Optimism is Feeling Disrespected
Barrett Jones wants to restore the natural order. Well, I got news for Mr. Jones, but LSU beating Alabama has been the natural order for over a decade now. Since 2000 (not coincidentally, after LSU canned Dinardo), LSU is 9-3 against Alabama.
Let that settle in. The players in the game on Monday can barely remember a time when Alabama dominated LSU, if they can remember it all. The era in which Alabama owned LSU was so long ago, Miami, Nebraska, and Florida St. were the dominant national powers, and Notre Dame was still good.
The "natural order" to which Mr. Jones referred is long since gone. It would be like a politician claiming the Solid South will vote Democrat like it used to. Alabama beating LSU is no more the natural order of things than Michigan owning Ohio St (and getting John Cooper fired).
It used to be popular for pundits in the 80s and 90s to call LSU a sleeping giant. Well, the giant woke up. If you think LSU is just going away, well, you must be dreaming.
Usually, in a rematch, the loser has a bit of a psychological edge. That's the team that lost something and now has the desire to get it back. It focuses practices and makes a team work that much harder to achieve their goals and show that the first game was just a fluke. The loser knows they have to get better, and they bust their ass to do so.
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Musings on New Years Day Bowls
I spent the New Years holiday holed up at Poseur HQ, watching lots of football. The question is, did I learn anything? Well, I learned that Cheetos are delicious, but only in small quantities. Other than that, I tried to glean some meaning from the games themselves. Here are my takeaways.
OKLAHOMA ST GOT SCREWED
The Cowpokes can't play defense, but they can play offense. As college football fans, we're being robbed of two contrasting styles, not to mention a Mo Claiborne v. Justin Blackmon matchup. Two of the best players at their position going head to head? Who wants to see that?
But worse than that, Okie St. now has five wins against teams that finished in the top 25 in the BCS final standings, and two in the top ten. Only LSU has as many wins over top 25 teams as OSU. Additionally, Okie St won the Big 12, which you might have noticed, has had a superb bowl season. OSU has a great resume, and they lost a spot in the title game to team that has beaten two teams in the final top 25 of the BCS poll. And one of those was Penn St, who looked downright awful against Houston. It's one thing to get passed over by a team with a slightly worse resume, but the resumes were not close. Oklahama State's accomplishments tower over Alabama's this season, and the only reason they don't get a shot is because, well, they are Okie St and Bama is Bama.
The stunning injustice of it just struck me last night. I've been against Bama in the title game, as they already lost to LSU at home, but I've also taken the attitude of we'll play whoever they tell us to play. I still do. I'm not afraid of Alabama. But it is not right they are playing in this game without having to prove their worth over the course of the season. OSU lost in the polls due to recency of their loss and historical reputation. Which are both awful factors. LSU should be playing OSU, not because I think they are the "easier" opponent, but because they are the right opponent who actually earned it on the field. Alabama getting a chance to win the BCS title by beating only three top 25 teams, and failing to win its conference or division, is an affront to the concept of fairness.
But life's not fair. It is what it is. Some teams get to take the easy road, and some teams take the hard road and still don't get rewarded. And it's not like Alabama is a bad team, they clearly have the ability to win the title game, considering the last game was tied after 60 minutes. It's just a shame they have been given the opportunity when they don't have the resume to back it up.
What It Means
It was a popular analysis in the 1980s and 1990s: "LSU is a sleeping giant." Well, the giant is awake now. In the past 10 years, LSU has won four SEC titles and has a shot at its third national title. That's one big giant. How big?
Since 1950, seven schools have won three national titles in the span of a decade: Alabama, Miami, Nebraska, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC. That's pretty much a list of the greatest programs of all-time (except Miami, who are a special case of a brief yet dominant dynasty).
LSU now has a chance to join this incredibly elite group. We're not talking about the program being really good and competing for titles, we're talking about stepping up to become one of the elite programs of all time.
A win here would be LSU's fifth recognized national title*, which would rank LSU ninth all-time among programs still in the FBS Subdivision. A national title and suddenly LSU is rubbing shoulders with the elite of college football, not just right now, but all-time.
*Ed Note - I'm using CFB Data Warehouse as my source. They recognize the 1908 title even if LSU doesn't. I have no idea why we do not recognize a title of a team that went 10-0 and outscored opponents 442-11. Not a misprint: 442 to 11.
On top of its historic place as a program, this LSU team has a chance to establish itself as one of the greatest single year teams of all time. LSU has played a brutal schedule, though Alabama's media campaign has robbed LSU of the unique opportunity to win one conference and beat the conference champion of three other BCS conferences. That's never happened in the BCS era, and sadly, we will not have the opportunity to make that bit of history.
Still, this has been an impressive run. If LSU wins, LSU will have won four games against teams ranked in the top five, has beaten two BCS conference champions, won the toughest country in the nation, and won ten games against teams that were ranked at the time of kickoff. All this, and no team save Alabama will have played LSU within 13 points.
That's what is behind Door #1. A win in the title game, and LSU will be able to claim one of the greatest single seasons of all time. A win will further place LSU as one of the greatest programs in college football history. This program is knocking on the door to the most elite club in college football history.
Behind Door #2?
If LSU loses this game, this season is for naught. The greatest season in LSU history will end as the greatest disappointment in LSU history. It's either greatness or bust. And when I say bust, I mean bust.
This is the single biggest game in LSU's entire football history. Best yet, we get to play it against the Evil Empire themselves, Alabama. And while Alabama backdoored their way into the title game, getting rewarded for losing and ducking tough games, LSU had to come in the hard way. LSU had to beat Alabama on the road, then win the SEC title game.
That's just the way things go. LSU is trying to do something historic, and that means taking the hardest path possible. No backing in, no excuses. Everything LSU will get, LSU will have earned. If LSU fails to win, then we don't go home with some lovely parting gifts. But there will be no excuses either.
I know it. You know it. This team knows it. This team will play with the weight of history before them. They will step up and meet the challenge, because that is what they have done every step of the road so far.
LSU has to win on January 9th.The pressure is immense but this team thrives on pressure. Pressure is how you make diamonds. And that's what this season is.
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A Look Back Before We Look Ahead
It's hard to preview the national title game because these teams are just so familiar with one another, as our the fans. You know almost as much about the Tide as their fans do. We also know how these two teams match up, as we've already seen that game.
So, in order to look forward, let's look back. It's become a common refrain that Alabama outplayed LSU back in November, that they won the game everywhere but the scoreboard. When your lobbying for a mulligan so you can play for a national title, I really don't mind the storyline. You're reduced to begging to get a shot in the title game, and Alabama begged better than anyone else. They created a convincing storyline, and it's not like LSU fans don't have experience with that ("undefeated in regulation" ring a bell?)
The problem is, I think Alabama honestly believes the manure they are shoveling. It's not problem when it's part of your media campaign, but if Alabama thinks they actually were the better team in the first meeting, only to be screwed by a few missed kicks, well, that's the kind of delusion that will cost you. Hell, this is what RBR had to say right after the game:
In the end, with all due respect to LSU, this game was defined more by the things we did not do. Bill Walsh does not need to be resurrected to perform this postmortem: In a game of such two evenly matched teams, you simply cannot miss four kicks and have two critical turnovers and win. The fact that we had more first downs, more total yards, and won the time of possession battle are merely random data points in the face of such mistakes. The defense did everything humanly possible and it was ultimately just a wasted performance.
With all due respect to Alabama, I hope to God they honestly believe this. Because if they just think they need to cut down on turnovers and tighten up the kicking game, and they are good, well, they are in for surprise. That's a recipe for certain defeat. Mainly because, if you look back at that first meeting, Alabama wasn' t the better team.
Sure, Alabama committed two critical turnovers. So did LSU. LSU's two turnovers both led to Alabama field goal attempts, one of them converted. LSU gave away free points the same way Alabama did, and the final turnover ledger in the game was net zero.
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The SEC as Muppets
Well, we're in winter vacation mode here at ATVS. I've put up the tree, hung the lights, and supervised the elves wrapping presents. No joke, I've got a present under my tree that says "FROM: Les Miles TO: Poseur". I wonder what he got me.
The team is back at practice, prepping for the Biggest Game of Their Lives. Hey, no pressure. So, we're trying to stay in game day shape here at the HQ. PodKatt has us running drills, diagramming sentences, and working at keeping our alcohol tolerances up to midseason levels.
I'll be taking off midweek to go vacation at DisneyWorld. Because of this and the recent Muppet movie, I've had the Muppets on my mind. And since this is the silly season anyway, I wasted some time trying to match up each SEC school with their appropriate Muppet doppleganger.
Yeah, it's not recruiting news or anything, but just a fun way to waste a few MB's of your employer's bandwidth. So, without further ado, the most sensational, celebrational, Muppetational column ever...
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Mathieu and the Heisman
Tyrann Mathieu is not going to win the Heisman. We all know this, not because NICKNAME REDACTED does not deserve the Heisman, but because the Heisman only goes to offensive players, and usually just players in the offensive backfield.
The one time the Downtown Athletic Club got cute and gave it to a defensive player, they gave it Charles Woodson, who also played some snaps at wide receiver. But let's just look at Woodson's defensive numbers in his Heisman winning campaign:
44 tackles
5 TFL
1 sack
9 pass break ups
8 INT
1 TD
That's pretty impressive. Let's look at NICKNAME REDACTED this season:
70 tackles
6.5 TFL
1.5 sacks
7 pass break ups
1 INT
4 TD
6 forced fumbles
4 fumble recoveries
Mathieu matches up. He has a ton more tackles and was a more disruptive player, constantly getting into the backfield to make tackles. OK, he doesn't have as many picks, but that's made up for by his amazing ability to force fumbles. And he's scored 4 touchdowns, an amazing number for a defensive player.
Mathieu is a guy who makes big plays. In LSU's last two games, the Tigers dug themselves into an early hole, only to get back into the game because of a big return by NICKNAME REDACTED. He didn't just score touchdowns, he scored touchdowns at crucial times to break the game open.
Look, there's a quarterback who puts up gaudy numbers every single season. It happens all of the time. Throwing for 4000 yards doesn't make you special, it just makes you the guy having a big season this year. It's your turn.
But Mathieu is a truly unique player. He's played all over the field and made big play after big play. There's no one who can do what NICKNAME REDACTED does. I can't even believe he does it with the stunning regularity he does.
Ask yourself: what player has had more impact on this season than Tyrann Mathieu? Who has been more "outstanding" than he has?
No, he won't win. But that doesn't mean that Tyrann Mathieu isn't the best player in college football. The only reason he won't win the Heisman is because he is a defensive back, and defensive players aren't allowed to win the Heisman. Well, NICKNAME REDCATED takes what he wants.
He deserves the Heisman.
You know how they say "put your money where your mouth is"? Well, I did. Here's hoping. One more...
2 months ago
Poseur
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The Final BlogPoll of 2011
I didn't submit a BlogPoll last week, so there's no point to showing the Deltas. Instead, I'm going to go through my ballot team-by-team and defend each ranking, as this is the most important ranking of the year.
1 LSU. Clearly the best team in the country.
2 OKLAHOMA ST. I value resumes above all else, and I look at who you beat ahead of who you lost to. That's been consistent for me since I started voting, as is my value in conference titles. OSU wins all of the metrics I personally value.
3 ALABAMA. I'm concerned by their lack of good wins outside of Arkansas, but they did show their quality by being the only team to play within two scores of LSU.
4 OREGON. I'm not shocked by Stanford's support, but the difference in record is because UO played LSU and Stanford didn't. UO won the conference and the head-to-head.
5 STANFORD. Still, one loss teams from the power conferences don't grow on trees.
6 WISCONSIN. There's a huge glut of two-loss teams, but Wisconsin won the Big Ten and avenged one of their losses on the season. Also, both losses were by a single score.
7 USC. Southern Cal is playing great right now, but let's not forget they lost by 21 to a 6-6 Arizona St team. While "bad losses" are all the rage, let's look at that one.
8 BOISE ST. The Georgia win looks a lot better right now, and they lost their one game on a missed field goal. This team is legit.
9 KANSAS ST. Finished second place in probably the toughest top-to-bottom conference in America. The SEC is more top heavy. They just go out and win.
10 ARKANSAS. I'm not totally sold on the Hogs as they don't have a lot of big wins, outside of South Carolina, and they were blown out by LSU and Alabama.
The BCS Must Die
I hate the BCS. Hate, hate, hate it. It's an awful system that lends itself to corruption and worse yet, it has made the regular season less and less meaningful. Their slogan is "Every Game Counts", but this season shows that every game simply doesn't count.
Conference titles used to matter. Teams used to schedule tough cross-regional games with frequency. Now, thanks to the BCS, they don't. The BCS claims to make the regular season more meaningful, but under the BCS, college football's regular season has become less meaningful. The quality of out of conference schedules have steadily declined under the BCS as teams have learned it is more important to not lose than to go out and prove your worth. The BCS has consistently rewarded teams, as it has this year, for avoiding tough games.*
*Ed Note - Before we go any further, this is not about Alabama making the title game. This is entirely about the method of selection and the BCS itself. I reject the entire system, not because of who it spit out as LSU's opponent. I do think Oklahoma St deserved it over Alabama, but I'm a resume voter. A power poll voter would likely take Alabama. I don't find the result of Alabama in the title game all that objectionable, as there are valid arguments on both sides. I find their method of selection terrible for football - this is about the BCS itself.
The BCS, and its supporters, claim the purpose of the BCS is to match up the two best teams. That's not true. To quote the BCS's website:
The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a five-game showcase of college football. It is designed to ensure that the two top-rated teams in the country meet in the national championship game, and to create exciting and competitive matchups among eight other highly regarded teams in four other bowl games.
How does the BCS ensure it gets the two "top rated" teams? It has invented a formula that is the illusion of objectivity when really it is a fancy way of distracting the rubes that it is simply selecting the top two teams in the human polls.
Only once has the BCS picked a team for the title game that was not in the human polls' top two, and it was so controversial that the AP crowned the team that missed the title game its champion. Oh, and then the BCS revamped the formula so that would never happen again.
The other goal of the BCS is to create "exciting and competitive matchups" in the other BCS bowls, and it has largely failed at that goal. It also has selected teams for those bowls who have not performed as well in this season as the teams getting passed over. The regular season certainly didn't matter in the selections this year.
This is what the BCS says their goal is, but that's not the true goal. The real goal of the BCS is in its name: Bowl Championship Series. The purpose of the system is to preserve the bowls. If you sat down and created a postseason from scratch, there's simply no way you'd come up with the bowls, much less the BCS. The BCS exists to matchup #1 and #2 within the framework of the bowls. The bowls come first, and don't ever forget that.
After the break, let's review how each BCS bowl game demonstrates a major flaw in the system.
It's Bama
Bring it on.
Initial Impressions: LSU 42, Dawgs 10
When you dominate a team on the field, you need to dominate them on the scoreboard or it simply doesn't matter.
Thatr's the lesson of this game, and the lesson of pretty much every upset bid. UGA came out and absolutely dominated the game in the first half, showing themselves to be the better team on the field. They moved the ball at will, and LSU's offense couldn't even manage a first down. It was complete domination.
And after Tyrann Mathieu returned a kick for a touchdown, it only resulted in a 3 point Bulldog lead. When UGA went to the half with a 10-7 lead despite it's utter domination of the first half, you knew they were in deep, deep trouble.
UGA threw it's best punches in the first half. They even landed a good portion of them. But up by a mere field goal at the half, it simply wasn't enough of a cushion for the oncoming LSU onslaught. The big plays were coming, and when they came, UGA had no response.
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Delusional Optimism and the Hard Way
This has been one of the most remarkable years of LSU football. We are nearing the close, and this team absolutely has to beat Georgia to validate this season -- winning the SEC means so much -- banners fly forever.
I do think this team will, like it has all season, come out focused and take care of business. Georgia is a quality team and they didn't make it to Atlanta by accident, but this LSU team knows it is playing for history. It has embraced this fact, and I fully expect the team to rise to the challenge again.
The key phrase here is "rise to the challenge". What makes this season so remarkable is not that LSU is poised to cap off its first undefeated regular season since 1958. What makes this season so remarkable is that it has done so despite seemingly overwhelming challenges.
Let's go back to the beginning of the season. Remember those two weeks leading up to opening kickoff? While LSU's blowout over Oregon now seems like it was such an inevitability, at the time, all of Tiger Nation was pretty damned nervous.
To review, here are the crappy things which happened to this team before opening kickoff:
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Welcome Georgia Fans!
I'm trying to gin up some hatred for Georgia, but I just can't do it. We may play in the same conference, but we're barely acquaintances. We hang out in the same social circles and all, and we've thrown a few pretty good games against one another, but this is not a heated and passionate rivalry by any stretch of the imagination.
Besides, I like UGA. Their mascot is cute and once attacked an Auburn player. Dawgsports is a great blog which I read every day despite not following UGA sports (we lawyers have to stick together, so I support T Kyle King's writings). They've got a cool logo. I like Athens. It's a pretty town and they've got a kick ass music scene. In fact, the greatest rock band currently working hails from Athens - the Drive-by Truckers. It pertains to nothing, but listen to this:
How can I hate that?
LSU and UGA have played 28 times in their history. The only team in the conference we've played less in South Carolina (18 times), and they weren't even in the conference until 1992. OK, we've also played Vandy 28 times, but I don't get worked up to play them either. In fact, from 1954 to 1977 LSU did not play Georgia one time. That's 33 years without a single meeting of two teams in the same conference.
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Initial Impressions: LSU 41, Hogs 17
I'm at Posuer HQ at the Ranch this weekend again, so I've got unreliable internet so I will make this quick.
The Haters may officially bite me now.
Our "middling" offense went out and scored 41 points. It's the 10th time LSU has cleared 30 points and the 8th time that LSU has cleared 40. But yeah, the offense is a weak link.
With the game on the line, LSU's depth came through again. The ground and pound offense may not be exciting for those of you outside Tiger Nation, but it is brutally effective. by the fourth quarter, Arkansas practically flew up a white flag from their sideline.
Fresh legs won out again, and LSU's embarrassment of riches in the backfield paid dividends. As other teams get tired, we seem to get stronger. It is a credit to the team's depth and conditioning. You never know who the hero is going to be.
But this week, the hero was an old standby: the Honey Badger. T-Rex forced two fumbles and recovered one. He also had a huge 92-yard punt return at a time we desperately needed a big play.
Down 14-0, a lesser team would have panicked. But LSU looked destiny in the face and seized the moment. After going down by 14, LSU outscored Arkansas 41-3.
That's what champions do.
This was yet another statement win from a team that has taken the theme of this season to be the Year of Settling Scores. Previous LSU teams would have folded or even got involved in a dogfight. LSU just slowly and methodically strangled the life out of the Hogs, and won this game going away. LSU has left no doubt who #1 is, let other teams worry about #2.
Delusional Optimism Wants an Undefeated Season or Nothing
This LSU team stands on the precipice of greatness. Before it lies the chance to not only go undefeated, win the SEC, and win the national title, but to put themselves in the conversation for the greatest teams in college football history.
But this team has not accomplished a damn thing yet.
There's a famous story that after the Miracle on Ice, the US hockey team still had to beat Finland in order to win the gold medal. Herb Brooks walked into the locker room before the game and simply told the team, "If you lose this game, you will take it to your graves."
No disrespect, but Arkansas is Finland.
LSU has already won the Game of the Century of the Week against a team even more evil than the Soviets. It was an epic game and one of the biggest wins in LSU's history. But if LSU goes out and loses to Arkansas, the game means precisely squat.
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A Great Weekend for a Great Sport
Before we move on to the most recent Game of the Century of the Week, let's just sit back and appreciate how wonderful college football is. Going into this weekend, I don't think anybody expected much from this slate of games, and instead we got another reminder that college football is the greatest sport on earth.
One of Les Miles' greatest attributes is not just that he appreciates LSU's football tradition, he respects all of college football's tradition and his small place in it. He reminds us, the fans, to stand back and take in the whole scene.
There's lots of great things about this sport, but this weekend highlighted two things in particular: each game has consequences and that each conference championship matters.
Winning the national title is great, but a team cannot control whether they will play for the title or not, just ask Auburn. College football is not one league like the NFL or the NBA, it is a loose affiliation of several independent leagues, more like international cub soccer. No one cares who wins the AFC North, but schools celebrate the anniversaries of their conference titles.
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The Morning After: LSU 52, Ole Miss 3
First off, I'm at our top secret location in West Texas, so my internet connection is spotty at best. I apologize for being late with the after game review -- the cows knocked out our internet. No, I'm not kidding. And there was a small matter of dealing with a rattlesnake under the porch. So my postgame activities precluded me from writing the wrapup. My apologies.
What can you really say about that game? While the rest of the college football world decided to implode this weekend, LSU went out and didn't just take care of business, they took care of other people's business as well. That was about the worst ass kicking of a rival you will ever see. LSU covered a 28.5 point spread. By the half.
For some reason, lazy journalists in the mainstream media have been talking about how LSU doesn't have an offense, because LSU played one defensive struggle against the best defensive team in the country (which they won, by the way). It's like LSU hasn't played ten other games -- and cleared 30 points in 9 of them.
Apparently, the no offense thing stuck in somebody's craw, as LSU went out and hung half a century on Ole Miss. Yes, Ole Miss stinks, but 50 points is 50 points. And let's face it, it could've been worse.
This game will probably be forever remembered for Les Miles putting in the victory formation for four consecutive downs while on the one yard line. With five minutes left to play. I don't think that's easing up on the gas, I think that's rubbing Ole Miss' face in it even more. Which, let's face it, no LSU fans are gonna complain about. We're all about humiliating Ole Miss. I spent the last five minutes of the game gut laughing like I was watching George Carlin.
I also loved Les Miles' commitment to getting James Stampley a touchdown late in the game. He called three straight fullback dives, including one on fourth down, just to give Stampley the chance to finally score. It was a just reward for a former walkon who has given his all to the program. It's no secret around these parts I'm a huge fan of Stampley. He's not our best player by any stretch of the imagination, but he's got tons of heart and he has made the most of his opportunities. College football is all about guys like that, and part of what makes the game so great. His touchdown got the loudest cheer of the night in our house. He'll be able to tell his kids that he scored a touchdown for the purple and gold. He's a true Tiger and I salute him.
But, aside from getting the backups and walkons a chance to shine, this was a night about dominance. If you were a title contender not in the SEC, you had a bad night. Even teams which survived, like Stanford, didn't look all that great doing so. LSU didn't just win, they won with authority. LSU reminded everyone in the country just exactly who the #1 team in the nation is -- it's amazing some of y'all forgot.
Now, bring on yet another huge game against yet another top five team. Arkansas, like Ole Miss, has been a huge thorn in LSU's side over the past few years. If LSU is to win the title this year, they will surely have earned it.
Blog Pollin Week 12
As always, explanations after the jump.
And The Valley Shook! Ballot - Week 12
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 2 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | 1 |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1 |
| 4 | Oregon Ducks | 2 |
| 5 | Oklahoma Sooners | 2 |
| 6 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 2 |
| 7 | Clemson Tigers | 4 |
| 8 | Houston Cougars | 2 |
| 9 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| 10 | Stanford Cardinal | -6 |
| 11 | Boise St. Broncos | -6 |
| 12 | Kansas St. Wildcats | 1 |
| 13 | Georgia Bulldogs | 2 |
| 14 | USC Trojans | 5 |
| 15 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 2 |
| 16 | Michigan St. Spartans | -2 |
| 17 | Michigan Wolverines | 3 |
| 18 | Wisconsin Badgers | -2 |
| 19 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 3 |
| 20 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | -8 |
| 21 | Southern Miss. Golden Eagles | 4 |
| 22 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | -4 |
| 23 | Baylor Bears | 1 |
| 24 | Florida St. Seminoles | -- |
| 25 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -- |
| Dropouts: Cincinnati Bearcats, Texas Longhorns | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
Initial Impressions: LSU 42, WKU 9
It's nice to be writing the game story during the fourth quarter again, taking the final minutes of the game as easy as I can. No stress in this one, as LSU rolled an inferior yet valiant opponent. Sure, WKU made it close for a half, but this one was never really in doubt.
LSU looked sluggish in the wake of the win in the Game of the Century of the Week. It's hard to blame them. Alabama was the big game on the schedule, so taking a collective sigh of relief while playing Directional State is to be expected -- not to mention how banged up the team probably is from such a hard hitting game.
What I'm saying is, let's spot the team a half of unfocused, uninspired football. It happens, and if you're gonna have a hangover, have a hangover against a Sun Belt team. That way, when you do collect yourself, you can still win by about 30 points.
To be fair to WKU, they played hard and tough. WKU, especially in the first half, was able to move the ball up and down the field, and exposed the weaknesses in LSU's defense -- they attacked us with their tight end, and Jack Doyle was a big factor in that first half. They played to win, didn't back down, and can walk out of Tiger Stadium with their heads held high.
But the second half exposed the gigantic chasm between the two team's depth charts. WKU tired and wilted a bit, and Doyle stopped making catches. On the other side of the ball, LSU went to its deep stable of backs and tonight it was Alfred Blue's turn to have a big game. The defense forced some turnovers, Blue broke some big runs, and the game was suddenly a rout.
As you can probably tell, I'm trying to not talk about the quarterbacks. I am genuinely surprised that Jarrett Lee didn't see any action until the fourth quarter. He looked a little rusty, but he guided the offense with aplomb. Even ran the option with authority. Jefferson was also pretty good, throwing a nice deep ball and doing his best to stay in the pocket. He still made some poor decisions, like that safety, but this was the first time all year it seemed he had the authority to sling the ball around. And he did that pretty well.
Jefferson seems like he's the starter, but I have a bit more faith in Lee. Jefferson seems to need a receiver to be wide open for him to throw the ball, while Lee has the ability "to throw a guy open." Of course, that means Lee is more likely to throw a pick, but he's also more likely to have a big play. It's hard to draw any conclusions against the Hilltoppers.
LSU is 10-0. It wasn't a pretty win, but the theme of the day was merely survival, so I'll certainly take it. It's not about pretty. It's about winning.
Translating CoachSpeak Returns
I haven't done the Translating CoachSpeak feature all season because Les Miles sort of defies the joke. How can you be more insane than what Miles actually says? The joke of the piece is that coaches don't say anything at all, so I translate them into saying outrageous things that fans are more likely to say.
But that's how Les talks! He's totally messed up the joke for me. He's impervious to mockery. Luckily, he tried to dial back the crazy in his Alabama press conference, allowing me to translate his most recent remarks. Love you, Coach.
WHAT HE SAID: I just want to recognize that certainly this is a win and it counts one. This was a very significant win and gives us the lead in the West. It just makes the rest of these games much more important. There was nothing settled in any way with victory last Saturday. We still have to earn our way. It is all about whom we are about to play and what is a necessary improvement that must take place this week. With that being said, we are looking forward to the process as we go forward.
WHAT HE MEANT: Are you kidding me? This was the biggest win of my career. All you Saban lovers can bite me. You know who you are. This win counts double, right? This was like the whole season in one game. Had we lost this one, we'd have almost no shot at the SEC title, much less the national title. Sort of like the boat Bama finds themselves in right now, eh? How you like them apples?
WHAT HE SAID: I felt the defense really had a great effort. They started off with a capable back and some adjustments that needed to be made because of formation. Trent Richardson was certainly as good as advertised. We put the breaks on him as we got into the back end of the game. The idea that the defense played with great character anytime you are in a slugfest there is that opportunity to make a play. That is what they were looking to do. The opponent would get close the goal line and suddenly there would be a negative play that would make the difference. There was pressure on the quarterback and a ball taken out of the air. I felt that defense played with great character.
WHAT HE MEANT: Trent Richardson is pretty darn good. In fact, there's only one thing on earth that can stop him. The LSU defense. We're like kryptonite, baby! Did you see the way he started running backwards at the end of the game? I thought that was pretty good, but I'm not expert. Oh wait, I am. Sam Montgomery hit him so hard one time you could actually see the snot bubbles. And let's face it, that's pretty cool. He was the best player on the field. Luckily, I had the best team.
Sometimes It's the Small Things, This Time It's the Big Things
Our idiot beat your genius. Again.
One of these days, people are going to realize that Les Miles is a pretty good football coach. Hopefully, it's not any time soon, because teams keep underestimating Miles, only to be left shaking their heads. you can shake your head and complain about "luck" only so many times before it's just an excuse to distract you from the fact you got taken advantage of by the Mad Hatter yet again.
We tend to think of football genius in terms of tactics. Billy does a great job here of breaking down specific plays and how the diagram translates to the real world. The pretty playcall still has the ability to impress, but we've learned at least one lesson from the Crowton years: decision making trumps pretty play calls.
It wasn't those diagrams or even good play calls which won the game. No, it wasn't luck either. It was good decision making. After the break, let's look at the decisions which turned the game.
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Blog Poll Week 11
I've been lax about posting my BlogPoll, though I have been voting because, well, I was waiting for this game. Here it is with explanations, if you remember, after the jump.
And The Valley Shook! Ballot - Week 11
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 3 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -- |
| 4 | Stanford Cardinal | -- |
| 5 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 6 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 7 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 8 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 1 |
| 9 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 1 |
| 10 | Houston Cougars | 2 |
| 11 | Clemson Tigers | 3 |
| 12 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | 4 |
| 13 | Kansas St. Wildcats | 2 |
| 14 | Michigan St. Spartans | 3 |
| 15 | Georgia Bulldogs | 3 |
| 16 | Wisconsin Badgers | 4 |
| 17 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -4 |
| 18 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 1 |
| 19 | USC Trojans | 3 |
| 20 | Michigan Wolverines | -12 |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 2 |
| 22 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -11 |
| 23 | Texas Longhorns | 1 |
| 24 | Baylor Bears | -- |
| 25 | Southern Miss. Golden Eagles | -- |
| Dropouts: Arizona St. Sun Devils, Ohio St. Buckeyes | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
Initial Impressions: LSU 9, Bama 6
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so that game was Christina Hendricks.
But outside of LSU fans, that was an ugly, ugly game. LSU's offense was completely unable to do anything outside of one drive. Miles had two options at quarterback -- one guy who couldn't throw and the other who was only throwing interceptions.
Les Miles made the choice to go with the guy who couldn't throw, because no yards are better than giving the ball to the other team. Jordan Jefferson's line was brutal: 6/10 for 67 yards with 11 rushes for 43 yards. His ATVSQBPI was a pedestrian 5.238.
Well, it was beautiful.
This game was everything we thought it would be. Two big time programs throwing haymakers at one another, and two near-NFL defenses just laying the wood. This game could have gone either way and both teams proved themselves to be worthy of the hype. Both defenses, especially, were as great as advertised.
Miles essentially found a way to win this game without an offense. He did it with defense and special teams.
The defenses tonight fought, essentially, to a draw. Both units were great and got big stop after big stop, and forced huge turnovers. Before we talk about how bad either offense is, let's give credit to both defenses, which played like world beaters. They made those offenses look bad. It's what they do.
But LSU won this game on special teams.
Alabama kickers went 2 for 6, including missing the critical 52-yarder in overtime. LSU's kickers hit three short field goals, including two pressure packed kicks after Saban called a timeout to ice the kicker.
But... Brad Wing. Oh my God. Eric Reid's interception was huge, but Bama still likely gets points without Brad Wing's 73 yard punt to flip field position. Of Wing's six punts, four were inside the 20, and another was perhaps the key play of the game.
Everyone makes fun of kickers as not really football players. Well, tonight, LSU's kickers just won the biggest game of the year. And it was absolutely beautiful.
ATVSQBPI After Two Months
We're full service here at ATVS. Ask for the ATVSQBPI, and ye shall receive. Here is the ATVSQBPI's for the quarterbacks of the SEC, with Jordan Jefferson thrown in despite his mere 10 pass attempts.
A few notes:
· The average ATVSQBPI is 6.222.
· Yes, that Jarrett Lee leading the pack. AJ McCarron is number two among SEC starters. Quite the little showdown we have this weekend, eh?
· How Larry Smith is still allowed to start, even at Vanderbilt, is mind-boggling.
· John Brantley has a decent yds/attempt, but his rushing stats kill him.
· Aaron Murray sure does throw a lot of interceptions. But also a lot of touchdowns.
· For perspective, Ryan Mallett led the SEC last season with a 9.132. Lee's knocking on the door.
· There really are a lot of bad quarterbacks in the SEC this year.
For new members of ATVS, here's a refresher on our custom metric, ATVSQBPI.
Passer Rating = (yards passing + net yards rushing + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 32*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).
|
Name |
Team |
Yds |
Yards/Att |
ATVSQBPI |
|
Jarrett Lee |
LSU |
1250 |
8.1 |
9.063 |
|
Jordan Jefferson |
LSU |
123 |
12.3 |
8.722 |
|
AJ McCarron |
Alabama |
1664 |
8.3 |
8.155 |
|
Tyler Wilson |
Arkansas |
2327 |
8.3 |
8.152 |
|
John Brantley |
Florida |
1187 |
8.7 |
7.487 |
|
Aaron Murray |
Georgia |
1822 |
7.9 |
7.218 |
|
Barrett Trotter |
Auburn |
1009 |
6.8 |
5.883 |
|
Randall Mackey |
Miss |
809 |
7.5 |
5.613 |
|
Jordan Rodgers |
Vanderbilt |
662 |
6.3 |
5.550 |
|
Chris Relf |
Miss St |
952 |
6.3 |
4.793 |
|
Morgan Newton |
Kentucky |
784 |
4.6 |
4.184 |
|
Matt Simms |
Tennessee |
289 |
5.1 |
3.046 |
|
Larry Smith |
Vanderbilt |
481 |
4.7 |
3.015 |
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