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    <title>SB Nation User Blog:  Poseur</title>
    <link>http://www.sbnation.com/users/Poseur</link>
    <description>Posts made by Poseur on SB Nation</description>
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      <title>Hungover and Happy</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/25/924756/hungover-and-happy</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:38:43 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It's hard to put this one into words.&amp;nbsp; This is not the same program that won the title nine years ago, so this one means a little bit more.&amp;nbsp; It's our first title post-Skip, and it demonstrates that LSU can win a title without the greatest college coach ever prowling the dugout.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;LSU has gone from the top of the mountain, to missing the tournament entirely, to climbing back on top.&amp;nbsp; Coaching at LSU might be the most difficult job in college baseball.&amp;nbsp; Sure, you get great facilities and a rabid fanbase, but it comes with a cost.&amp;nbsp; Every move is scrutinized and nothing short of a title is acceptable.&amp;nbsp; Let's be honest, at most schools, there is not the same kind of pressure as there is at LSU.&amp;nbsp; Hey, Paul... sorry about that.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But Mainieri has not just faced the pressure, he has embraced it.&amp;nbsp; While Smoke seemed to resent the pressure and the all-powerful Eye that is Skip Bertman, Mainieri has thrived.&amp;nbsp; His truly remarkable relationship with Les Miles and the football program is yet another way Mainieri has completely and totally bought into the bright lights of LSY baseball.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Which begs the question... is this the best LSU team ever?&amp;nbsp; I need time to think about that, and I don't feel like doing much analysis in the wake of this celebration (dude, I'm still huingover), but this is the first LSU team since 1993 to win the SEC regular season title, the SEC tourney, and the national title.&amp;nbsp; LSU was one Jungmann gem away from being the first team to ever go 10-0 in the postseason.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;


  
&lt;p&gt;I mentioned this in the comments, but it bears repeating: the LSU bullpen was simply amazing in Omaha.&amp;nbsp; Widely perceived as a team weakness, the LSU relief corps was by far the most effective bullpen in the CWS.&amp;nbsp; Aside from Byrd's short yet rough outing in Game Two of the title series, the pen's three game line was 15.0 IP 6 H 0 R 6 BB 13 K.&amp;nbsp; Even in Game Two, LSU's only defeat, Cain and Bradshaw combined for 6 innings of shutout ball.&amp;nbsp; Our starters got lit up, but the bullpen saved our bacon.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I could be mean and talk about the lack of production in the back of the order, but let's instead focus on the defense.&amp;nbsp; Once again, the pre-Series talk was Texas' defensive advantage, but it was LSU that played great defense and made the spectacular plays while Texas threw the ball all over the diamond.&amp;nbsp; LSU's infield defense especially made all of the big plays.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of course, the hitters came to play.&amp;nbsp; The bats were tamed in Game Two, but they exploded in Game Three and scraped out 7 runs in Game One.&amp;nbsp; Just about everyone got to be hero.&amp;nbsp; Mitchell was named the MVP, but it could just have easily been LeMahieu or Schimpf.&amp;nbsp; Hell, even Ochinko.&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pitching, defense, hitting.&amp;nbsp; This team had it all.&amp;nbsp; And now they have a trophy to go with it.&lt;/p&gt;

  


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      <title>Ready For Game Three</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/24/924010/ready-for-game-three</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:34:45 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I did not commit suicide after the game.&amp;nbsp; I'm not hiding.&amp;nbsp; I was just travelling.&amp;nbsp; I'm back at home, ready to watch the game from my private compound, located inside enemy territory.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sometimes, you run into a pitcher who is just completely on.&amp;nbsp; Jungmann was completely on last night.&amp;nbsp; I wasn't thriled with starting Ross, as it seemed like Mainieri wanted there to be a Game Three.&amp;nbsp; Well, he got his wish.&amp;nbsp; We got beat, plain and simple last night.&amp;nbsp; Our best pitcher is on the mound with the whole ball of wax on the line tonight.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We see tonight whether this team goes down as one of LSU's best ever like the 1997 team, or the best team that didn't win, like the 1998 team.&amp;nbsp; The whole season comes down to this.&amp;nbsp; No pressure.&lt;/p&gt;

  


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      <title>Stoking the Fire</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/23/921987/stoking-the-fire</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:15:15 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;As persona non grata in the Texas blogosphere right now, I should take last night's classic as a chance to backtrack, give Texas credit, and back down from my "LSU is an unstoppable juggernaut" meme.&amp;nbsp; But I'd rather throw fuel on the fire.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First and foremost, that was a terrific game.&amp;nbsp; It was one of the most exciting sporting events I have seen, regardless of sport.&amp;nbsp; Both teams both threw and received some massive punches.&amp;nbsp; It was a classic heavyweight fight between two of the top teams in the country.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But it also showed how ridiculous the idea was that LSU would be unable to play a close game.&amp;nbsp; Texas does not have magic pixie dust, they have a shutdown closer.&amp;nbsp; So does LSU.&amp;nbsp; LSU also has a deeper bench which sort of helps in the late innings.&amp;nbsp; It also might have been the difference in the game.&amp;nbsp; The standard line coming out of Texas was that they would be so much better prepared to win a close game was silly from the start, and ignored the fact that LSU had faced adversity anyway.&amp;nbsp; But a good team is a good team, even if they are down two runs.&amp;nbsp; Did Texas expect LSU to suddenly pack it in if the game got close?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some other observations after the jump.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;


  
&lt;p&gt;AUGIE.&amp;nbsp; We can thank Augie for the LSU win.&amp;nbsp; Augie is one of the best coaches in college baseball, but he's sort of the anti-Skip Bertman.&amp;nbsp; Skip put his players in a position to win and let them achieve gretaness.&amp;nbsp; Augie not only wants to win, but he likes being the smartest guy on the field.&amp;nbsp; He likes to make moves which pay off, so that he is the one controlling the outcome.&amp;nbsp; He trusts his players, but he trusts his ability to manage the game more so.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This isn't a bad way to coach and I'm not saying that it is.&amp;nbsp; He's won a ton of games and bucket of national titles.&amp;nbsp; I'm just pointing out that Augie likes to make a lot of moves.&amp;nbsp; And last night, he made way too many moves for his own good.&amp;nbsp; In a close game, Augie pulled some of his best hitters for defense.&amp;nbsp; Once LSU rallied to tie, Texas' biggest guns were left watching the rest of the game from the dugout.&amp;nbsp; the Longhorns never really threatened after &lt;a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10493/Chad_Jones" class="sbn-auto-link"&gt;Chad Jones&lt;/a&gt; came in the seventh.&amp;nbsp; It would have been nice had the Longhorns had a few more hitters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;LSU'S BENCH. By contrast, Mainieri also made moves without the ill effect.&amp;nbsp; When Texas made defensive substitutions, it killed thier offense.&amp;nbsp; When Mainieiri went to his bench for some more offense, it didn't impact the defense too adversely.&amp;nbsp; The outfield defense actually improved with Landry out there.&amp;nbsp; LSU's bench was more flexible, and it paid off in the late innings.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;THE UMP.&amp;nbsp; Seriously, he was terrible.&amp;nbsp; The strike zone was all over the place and changed not just from hitter to hitter, but during the same at bat.&amp;nbsp; I still don't know if that low and outside pitch is a strike or a ball.&amp;nbsp; Because the ump called it both.&amp;nbsp; It impacted the game, but it didn't favor either team, I just wanted to point out how lousy he was.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;THE PENS.&amp;nbsp; Texas went all out to win.&amp;nbsp; Texas, rightly I believe, threw the kitchen sink to win this game.&amp;nbsp; Texas went to its stud starting pitching to get the critical outs, which could have a negative impact on the next few games.&amp;nbsp; I believe all those arms are still availble, but I'm not sure how long they can go.&amp;nbsp; Mainieri's used his pen like a normal game: Jones, Bertuccini, and then Ott.&amp;nbsp; He trusted his usual bullpen guys to make the outs, and they came through.&amp;nbsp; Texas' bullpen was supposed to be an advantage, but that's thinking LSU's pen is the same lousy corps we had in March and April, not the shutdown crew we have had in May and June.&amp;nbsp; Mainieri didn't have to go all "Game 3" and still won.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;THE WIN. That's the huge thing.&amp;nbsp; Apart from the obvious.&amp;nbsp; Texas hit five home runs.&amp;nbsp; they opened up their pen and played it like Game 3 of the Series.&amp;nbsp; They had everything happen they needed to have happen to win... and they lost.&amp;nbsp; Texas' big advantage was supposed to be their ability to win the close game, well, advantage now goes LSU.&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>General Cockiness</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/21/920700/general-cockiness</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2009 03:34:54 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I'm travelling for work again, so I'm not going to be online for the first game of the series.&amp;nbsp; Richard has the wheel.&amp;nbsp; I don't mean to step on his most recent post or his talk with the guys over at Burnt Orange Nation.&amp;nbsp; Check both of those out.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Before I disappear into workng hell, let me offer my last thoughts on the game.&lt;/p&gt;


  
&lt;p&gt;Call me cocky or whatever, but this is the best LSU team I have seen since 1997, which i firmly believe is the greatest college team ever assembled.&amp;nbsp; And honestly, i think this team is more talented.&amp;nbsp; If they do not win the title, it will be a tragedy.&amp;nbsp; Texas is a really good team and they would make a worthy champ.&amp;nbsp; But we are better this year.&amp;nbsp; We're a lot better.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That's not a knock on Texas, that's a statement on how good this LSU team is.&amp;nbsp; If they lose this series, it will because either Texas played the greatest two games of their season or we played poorly.&amp;nbsp; I have never been more confident in an LSU team in any sport than I am in this baseball team.&amp;nbsp; I hate the anything but a title is a failure attitude displayed by any fanbase, but I have to be honest, anything less than a title will be a massive disappointment for this team, this season.&amp;nbsp; This is the best team in the country and better yet, they know it.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Can we lose?&amp;nbsp; Sure.&amp;nbsp; Just ask UNC&amp;nbsp;about being the heavy favorite in a championship series.&amp;nbsp; Texas most certainly can win this series.&amp;nbsp; But I don't believe a team this good or this focused will manage to lose two games to anybody.&amp;nbsp; I've never been more confident in&amp;nbsp;an LSU&amp;nbsp;team, and that sort of scares me.&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Ed. Note: &amp;nbsp;Open Thread and Brief Game Preview at 1:00pm Central.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Talent vs. Magic</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/20/919481/talent-vs-magic</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:38:56 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;I live in Texas, so I am surrounded by Texas fans.&amp;nbsp;To be honest, in the great UT-A&amp;amp;M debate, I tend to side with A&amp;amp;M because I am related to a few a Aggies and&amp;nbsp;I sort of admire their completely unreasonable fanaticism.&amp;nbsp; But I don't dislike the Horns.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I like Austin.&amp;nbsp; I like the Hook 'em Horns.&amp;nbsp; I like "Texas Fight".&amp;nbsp; I like their cheerleaders.&amp;nbsp; I like that they beat USC in the Rose Bowl, probably the best college football game I have ever seen.&amp;nbsp; I have plenty of friends who went to Texas, and I wish them all well.&amp;nbsp; But this is war, and I hope LSU makes every Texas fan wish they didn't have a baseball team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is one thing I do hate about Texas, and that is their arrogance.&amp;nbsp; Texas has a well-deserved reputation for being a whine-and-cheese crowd.&amp;nbsp; Their football games are the quietest 100,000 people not in the Big House.&amp;nbsp; Texas is sort of the Bama of the Big XII, always ready to tell you about some game they won in 1954.&amp;nbsp; Which is fine, you should be proud of your history, which is impressive, but before Texas gets on their haughty horse, I'd like to point to the All-Time Championship Scoreboard:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Baseball: Texas 6, LSU 5&lt;br /&gt;All Sports: LSU 40, Texas 39 (football not included)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We're not some chump.&amp;nbsp; I'll put our athletic history up against anybody's and if some Texas fan starts going on about their illustrious history, which has happened to me several times already this week, the proper response is: "Scoreboard."&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;And I know not to read too much into the comment sections of any website, but &lt;a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=2195#comments"&gt;this comment &lt;/a&gt;on Baseball America drove me mad because I don't think he's expressing a belief that far out of line with many Texas fans:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That&amp;rsquo;s right, Texas is shooting for national championship number 7 (1949, 1950, 1975, 1983, 2002, 2005, and 2009?). Hook &amp;lsquo;em Horns! Time to take out "new money" LSU. I know that the "experts" will generally pick LSU, but I wonder how LSU will respond to some real adversity. I mean, it&amp;rsquo;s been many weeks since they lost a single game. How will LSU respond if Coleman is pitching and they&amp;rsquo;re down to Texas by a score of 5-0? I have no doubt about LSU&amp;rsquo;s raw talent, and I also have no doubt about Texas&amp;rsquo; mental toughness and their ability to win close games. I still think that LSU only has three good pitchers, and if they&amp;rsquo;re forced to use their bullpen, the advantage could swing to Texas. We&amp;rsquo;ll see what happens. Hook &amp;lsquo;em Horns!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let's break that down...&lt;/p&gt;


  
&lt;p&gt;First off, "new money"?&amp;nbsp; Are you kidding me?&amp;nbsp; In college baseball, just about everyone is new money.&amp;nbsp; USC used to pretty much win the title every year and from 1967-1981, a west coast team won the title every year except for 1975 (Texas).&amp;nbsp; In that 15 year span, USC won 7 titles, Arizona St. 4, and Arizona 2.&amp;nbsp; Look, they didn't even hand out a Golden Spikes Award until 1978.&amp;nbsp; It's hard to pin down when college baseball expanded to become a national sport, but I'd go with either 1982 when a non-west coast team won, on 1979, when Fullerton broke in for a title.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;LSU's first trip to Omaha was 1986.&amp;nbsp; That was over 20 years ago.&amp;nbsp; But whatever.&amp;nbsp; Really, Texas is about the only fanbase would even think of a "new money" putdown.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But let's get to that game analysis...&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let's be clear, it's awesome that LSU has not played a close game in forever.&amp;nbsp; Great teams do NOT win close games.&amp;nbsp; Great teams win by blowout.&amp;nbsp; And it's not like we have not faced adversity.&amp;nbsp; The SEC tournament was an incredible backs-to-the-wall run.&amp;nbsp; But I'm not worried that LSU jumps on teams and early and then blows teams out before the seventh inning rolls around.&amp;nbsp; That's a good thing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Texas' run this year reminds me of our last year.&amp;nbsp; I enjoyed the hell out of it.&amp;nbsp; LSU won so many straight games and had so many incredible rallies.&amp;nbsp; The UC Irvine series was one of the best sports weekends ever.&amp;nbsp; The rally against Rice was spectacular.&amp;nbsp; The whole season was magical.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Except that we lost.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When magic runs into talent, talent usually wins.&amp;nbsp; Magic does occassionally win, which is why we still can see clips of Jimmy Valvano running around trying to hug someone.&amp;nbsp; Or why Fresno State has a national title.&amp;nbsp; But usually, the juggernaut stomps the upstart into dust.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then again, it's not like Texas is some lousy team.&amp;nbsp; They have terrific pitching, and some great hitters once Augie gets over the bunt.&amp;nbsp; They are the #1 seed.&amp;nbsp; Texas isn't some upstart, this is not the Fresno State story.&amp;nbsp; But let's look into this assumption that their pitching is so much better than LSU's and this is a matchup between offense versus defense.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;RUNS ALLOWED&lt;br /&gt;Texas 227&lt;br /&gt;LSU 299&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yes, they have allowed less runs.&amp;nbsp; But Texas plays in the more offensively-challenged Big XII and LSU plays in the big ball SEC.&amp;nbsp; I doubt it evens those numbers, but the gap is not as big as people think.&amp;nbsp; LSU's pitching matches up with Texas' fairly well (and it's now that I make the obligatory point that their three starters are all righties).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But let's get to the fun number:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;RUNS SCORED&lt;br /&gt;Texas 386&lt;br /&gt;LSU 542&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;LSU is 150 runs better on offense.&amp;nbsp; Texas has great pitching.&amp;nbsp; So did Rice.&amp;nbsp; Ask Wayne Graham how that went.&amp;nbsp; LSU has pitching that matches up, though it is a little worse than Texas'.&amp;nbsp; But LSU's offense is on a different planet.&amp;nbsp; The Tigers aren't quite the Gorilla Ball teams of Skip, but they are pretty damn good.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I'm not even going to touch the comment about LSU lacking mental toughness.&amp;nbsp; This team is pretty damn mentally tough.&amp;nbsp; Especially that Louis Coleman guy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Texas has magic.&amp;nbsp; LSU has two of the best pitchers in the nation, an All-American closer, great defense, and an offense that scored 150 runs more than the Longhorns.&amp;nbsp; And you never know, maybe we've got a little pixie dust of our own.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Strength of Schedule and Announcers</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/16/911279/strength-of-scehdule-and-announcers</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:55:31 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I promise to get to those burning questions of the CWS like who to start on Friday and who to root for on Wednesday, but first let's have one last note on Cal State Fullerton now that they have been eliminated by the plucky Cavaliers.&amp;nbsp; In one of the comments thread, it was pointed out that the ISR's might overrate west coast teams.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, I'm loathe to criticize the amazing work of Boyd World.&amp;nbsp; His site really is one of the very best resources for a college baseball fan.&amp;nbsp; And let's be honest, there's no way I could construct an even halfway decent computer rating system.&amp;nbsp; This, of course, is a long-winded preamble to me criticizing the amazing work of Boyd World.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;


  
&lt;p&gt;When the field was announced, Boyd crunched the numbers and found that CSF had a 46.4% chance of making the final.&amp;nbsp; That's, for all intents and purposes, even money odds.&amp;nbsp; That is also, patently absurd.&amp;nbsp; Nothing against CSF, but there's no team that should have been even money to make the championship series, particularly a team in the same bracket as such heavyweights as UC-Irvine, Florida St, and LSU.&amp;nbsp; Favorites?&amp;nbsp; Sure.&amp;nbsp; But overwhelming favorites?&amp;nbsp; By contrast, LSU had a 46.2% chance of just making it Omaha.&amp;nbsp; While LSU had a 9.2% chance of making the final series and a 3.7% chance of winning it, CSF had a 32.6% of winning the title.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Did anyone honestly believe that CSF had a ten times better chance of winning the title than LSU when the field was announced?&amp;nbsp; Hell, I don't even think Boyd believed that.&amp;nbsp; Check out the pre-CWS odds:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Final&amp;nbsp; Champ&amp;nbsp; Team&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;30.8&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 14.0&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Texas&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.4&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 0.3&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Southern Mississippi&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;27.6&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 9.8&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; North Carolina&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;39.1&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 21.4&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Arizona State&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;57.9&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 40.1&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Cal State Fullerton&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;14.6&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 4.6&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Arkansas&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;17.2&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 6.5&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Louisiana State&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;10.3&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; 3.4&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp; Virginia&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For those of you scoring at home, that means he gave nearly the same odds for CSF to win the title as Texas, Arizona St, and LSU COMBINED.&amp;nbsp; There has to be a point you look at the numbers your system pumps out and ask "does this make sense?"&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Believe it or not, this isn't to tear apart Boyd.&amp;nbsp; I meant it when I said that I deeply respect his work.&amp;nbsp; There is a point here.&amp;nbsp; Because I believe I know the cause of the problem, even if I don't have the solution (going back to the idea I can't build a rating system).&amp;nbsp; The problem is a faulty strength of schedule rating.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Strength of schedule is usually calculated by some variation of a factor of opponents' winning percentage added or multiplied to a factor of opponents' opponents' winning percentage.&amp;nbsp; While this is the industry standard, I believe that it is completely incorrect.&amp;nbsp; It does give a good baseline, but there are two fundamental flaws.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;ONE. Assuming the same opponents' opponents' winning percentage, this method of strength of schedule overrates teams that play lots of mediocre teams.&amp;nbsp; It is better to play two 5-5 teams and a 6-4 team (to use football), than to play a 10-0 team, a 5-5 team, and a 0-10 team.&amp;nbsp; But it is harder to go undefeated against the second schedule despite it being rated as the easier schedule.&amp;nbsp; This is a basic flaw of strength of schedule that it does not have a component to rate top tier games.&amp;nbsp; But really, it is a function of the more basic flaw...&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;TWO.&amp;nbsp; Strength of schedule ratings rate a game against a lesser opponent as easier than an open date.&amp;nbsp; Think about that, playing anyone, no matter how poor of a squad, is ALWAYS tougher than not playing at all.&amp;nbsp; Any system that punishes a team for playing a team in comparison to not playing at all is fundamentally flawed.&amp;nbsp; A truly good rating system, like Boyd's, can be so well constructed as to minimize this flaw, but this flaw cannot be completely ignored.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Playing is always harder than not playing.&amp;nbsp; I don't have the solution to strength of schedule, but I simply do not believe strength of schedule ratings.&amp;nbsp; Which makes me horribly skeptical of computer rankings.&amp;nbsp; Hopefully, someone better at math than I am can figure out the workaround to this basic problem.&amp;nbsp; , &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I don't know much about computer rankings, but I do know that there is no earthly way CSF had a ten times better chance in Omaha than LSU.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;....&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I like to rip on the MSM, particularly ESPN, but the College World Series is one of those things ESPN does right.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Orel Hersheiser and Mike Patrick mangled every name on LSU's roster, but other than that, they had great chemistry and made an entertaining broadcast despite having to kill time during a blowout.&amp;nbsp; They were funny, engaging, and I actually learned a few things.&amp;nbsp; Having a great pitcher like Orel break down pitcher mechanics is a real treat.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Their discussion on hit batsmen was funny and also pretty interesting.&amp;nbsp; And Orel got off one of the best lines of the night when he admitted that there was no way Patrick was ever going to convince him about anything that helped a hitter.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I'm pretty critical, so I think it's only fair that I praise when ESPN does something well.&amp;nbsp; They have done an outstanding job in Omaha so far, especially in how they let the games speak for themselves.&amp;nbsp; Good job, guys.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Pulling Out All the Stops On Day One</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/14/909029/pulling-out-all-the-stops-on-day</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2009 16:37:47 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"&gt;That could not have gone any better.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first day is the most important day for a CWS team, as it is extraordinarily difficult to come out of the loser's bracket and make the title game.&amp;nbsp; Only two teams have done it in the past 10 years (South Carolina and Oregon St.).&amp;nbsp; No LSU championship team has ever overcome a first day loss.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What's a win worth?&amp;nbsp; The winner of LSU-Arkansas will be one win away, with two opportunities, from the title game.&amp;nbsp; The loser of that game will need three straight wins to make the title game.&amp;nbsp; CSF and UVa, the first day losers, must now win four straight games.&amp;nbsp; It's not the number of wins, it's the sheer number of games.&amp;nbsp; While the Game Five winner will sit back from Monday to Friday and explore the sites of Omaha (I highly recommend the zoo), the losers will keep eliminating each other and burning up their respective pitching staffs.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, the win was huge.&amp;nbsp; But, almost as good, second-seeded Cal State Fullerton lost without throwing their ace pitcher. &amp;nbsp;CSF will be a tough out in the loser's game with their best pitcher on the mound, and LSU has now effectively avoided Daniel Renken for their stay in Omaha.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The hits keep on coming, as Arkansas will throw Brett Eibner, a righty, at LSU, having burned their lefty ace.&amp;nbsp; Eibner went 3.2 innings against the Tigers in his last attempt, allowing four runs.&amp;nbsp; We know we can hit this guy.&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

  
&lt;p&gt;Not to belabor the point (ok, let's belabor the point), but the approach of the two seeded teams to their first game could not have been more different.&amp;nbsp; And because of that, LSU is in the winner's bracket and CSF isn't.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;CSF saved their ace for Monday, on the obviously false grounds that they felt Ramirez gave them the best chance to win.&amp;nbsp; Wow, he shut down Utah and Louisville?&amp;nbsp; Really?&amp;nbsp; How did he do that?&amp;nbsp; CSF held back Renken for their potential matchup with LSU in the marble game.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was a bad move for several reasons, but primarily because it showed CSF's attitude.&amp;nbsp; Even the ESPN announcers pointed to it when they talked about how CSF felt that they were the best team here and we're going to win the title.&amp;nbsp; Well, there's plenty of teams in Omaha who feel they are the best team here, but none of the others have let it actually dictate strategy.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;CSF took a win for granted and it bit them in the ass.&amp;nbsp; You cannot take wins for granted in Omaha.&amp;nbsp; Every team is good.&amp;nbsp; Even teams that aren't that good are at least ridiculously hot.&amp;nbsp; Does no one remember Fresno St winning a title?&amp;nbsp; Last frickin' year?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Meanwhile, LSU went all out to win.&amp;nbsp; I'm not saying CSF wasn't trying, but they did not employ a "damn the torpedoes" type of strategy.&amp;nbsp; LSU did.&amp;nbsp; Mainieri did not hesitate to pull Ranaudo when his ace was struggling.&amp;nbsp; After he put Bertuccini in, he went straight to his #3 starter (Ross), followed by his lefty bullpen specialist (Jones), to his senior ace (Coleman), to his closer (Ott).&amp;nbsp; No stone was left unturned.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Winning on Day One matters.&amp;nbsp; It matters a lot.&amp;nbsp; Mainieri understood that fact, which is why his team is sitting pretty today.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>CSF Is Looking Ahead</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/12/907628/csf-is-looking-ahead</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2009 20:49:35 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;RHP Daniel Renken is not going to pitch &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;Fullerton&lt;/st1:city&gt;&amp;rsquo;s opener against &lt;st1:state w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Arkansas&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:state&gt;.&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp; &lt;/span&gt;He&amp;rsquo;s the staff ace and it shows that &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Fullerton&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:city&gt; is approaching this CWS with the idea that LSU is their biggest threat on their half of the bracket.  I&amp;rsquo;m of two minds about this move.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the one hand, I&amp;rsquo;m flattered.&amp;nbsp; LSU isn&amp;rsquo;t juggling their staff to face CSF, but then again, we have two aces (really, what&amp;rsquo;s the difference between Ranaudo and Coleman?)It shows they are concerned with us, and that feeds my LSU sports ego.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, this is the exact kind of move that tends to blow up in a team&amp;rsquo;s face.  This reeks of hubris.  You can hold a starter back in the regional due to the quality of the competition, but this just in: everyone in &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Omaha&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:city&gt; is good.  Real good.  I don&amp;rsquo;t really buy into the whole bulletin board material theory on the grounds that every team is going to be "up" to play in a big game.  That said, CSF is disrespecting &lt;st1:state w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Arkansas&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:state&gt;.  That&amp;rsquo;s fine if it&amp;rsquo;s just a calculated strategy to manage the staff, but it is bad if this speaks to the team&amp;rsquo;s attitude.  Overlook &lt;st1:state w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Arkansas&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:state&gt; at your own peril.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And from LSU&amp;rsquo;s point of view, I say bring it on.  Sure, Renken&amp;rsquo;s got a 2.32 ERA and has a 98/32 K/BB ratio in 118 IP.  Those are good numbers.  But the list of righties who have notched a win over LSU this season is really short.  I&amp;rsquo;m not afraid of any right handed pitcher.  Hell, I&amp;rsquo;m more afraid of Danny Hultzen of UVa.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Honestly, I think &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;Fullerton&lt;/st1:city&gt; will beat &lt;st1:state w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Arkansas&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:state&gt; simply because they have a better team.  But I like &lt;st1:state w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Arkansas&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:state&gt;&amp;rsquo; chances a lot better today than I did yesterday.  Sometimes teams can outthink themselves in &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Omaha&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:city&gt;.  The first game is so important, as teams rarely lose on the first day and then come back to even make the title game.  In the last ten years, only two teams have managed to rally from an opening day loss to make the finals.  It&amp;rsquo;s not worth the risk.  Do whatever it takes to win the game, especially the first game.  Worry about tomorrow when it comes.  A double elimination tournament is too unpredictable to try and manage your path days ahead.  Just treat every game like an elimination game.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I sort of want &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Fullerton&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:city&gt; to win because I want to be the team that lights up Renken.  I don&amp;rsquo;t think we should be afraid of anyone.  That said, I think I&amp;rsquo;ll be pulling for &lt;st1:state w:st="on"&gt;Arkansas&lt;/st1:state&gt;, not just out of SEC solidarity, but because I don&amp;rsquo;t like how &lt;st1:city w:st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place w:st="on"&gt;Fullerton&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:city&gt; is assuming a win in its first game.  That game is more important than they are treating it, and CSF deserves to get a good smiting from the baseball gods.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Hultzen Is Evil</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/11/906758/hultzen-is-evil</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:51:52 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;As we've already pointed out, the key to tommorrow's game will be getting to LHP Danny Hultzen.&amp;nbsp; He's just a freshman, but he's been pretty successful this year, most notably shutting down both UC Irvine and Ole Miss.&amp;nbsp; But, not to brag, but shutting down LSU is a whole other kettle of fish.&amp;nbsp; UCI scored 432 runs.&amp;nbsp; OM scored 470.&amp;nbsp; LSU scored 524.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of course, Hultzen is a lefty.&amp;nbsp; And we all know that means time to panic in TigerTown.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;I have one suggestion and one cause to not be concerned.&amp;nbsp; First, the concern.&amp;nbsp; Hultzen is a freshman.&amp;nbsp; Nothing against him personally, but Rosenblatt tends to eat freshman studs alive.&amp;nbsp; If you're relying on a frehsman in a big game, in any sport, that is usually a big worry.&amp;nbsp; Sometimes you get Carmelo Anthony in the Final Four, but&amp;nbsp;that's not the norm.&amp;nbsp; But that's wishful thinking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So here is the suggestion: bench Jared Mitchell.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mitchell's a terrific player.&amp;nbsp; It's no accident he was selected in the first round.&amp;nbsp; He's a threat on the bases and&amp;nbsp;he plays mean defense.&amp;nbsp; But the guy absolutely cannot hit lefties right now.&amp;nbsp; Put Mitchell on the bench and start Helenihi at third and Hanover at DH.&amp;nbsp; LSU has a lefty heavy lineup,&amp;nbsp;so let's flip the script.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let's stop pretending lefties don't kill us.&amp;nbsp; Go righty-crazy with Helenihi, Hanover, Ochinko, Gibbs, Mahtook, and Nola.&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp; And then sub Mitchell in as soon as you can.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Right handed hitters.&amp;nbsp; Say it.&amp;nbsp; We need guys who hit from the right side of the plate.&amp;nbsp; Let's get to Hultzen early and then get to our lefty studs on the bench.&amp;nbsp; I think we're gonna win.&amp;nbsp; I haven't been this confident since 1997.&amp;nbsp; That said, this is no cakewalk.&amp;nbsp; Let's give ourselves the best chance to win.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>LSU Played Lousy, And That Proves LSU Is Awesome</title>
      <link>http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/6/7/901653/lsu-played-lousy-and-that-proves</link>
      <author>Poseur</author>
      <pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:25:18 -0000</pubDate>
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&lt;p&gt;Well, folks, we're going back to Omaha.&amp;nbsp; I have been struggling with how to express exactly how good this LSU team is and how excited I am about their prospects in the CWS.&amp;nbsp; I could point out that LSU has lost only one SEC series all year, which is a pretty good sign of our consistency.&amp;nbsp; I could point to the 524-293 run disparity.&amp;nbsp; I&amp;nbsp; could point to to the team's 315/407/512 batting line.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But instead, let's focus on this weekend: LSU played nowehere near its best baseball and still swept Rice.&amp;nbsp; And Rice is no chump.&amp;nbsp; Many members of the college baseball media have pointed out that Rice probably should have been a national seed themselves.&amp;nbsp; Outside of Virginia, no team got a worse screw job from the NCAA committee.&amp;nbsp; I tend to agree with that assessment, but Rice was thoroughly outclassed this weekend.&amp;nbsp; LSU swept a terrific team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Normally, when a team earns a sweep, they have played pretty good baseball.&amp;nbsp; Particularly when you sweep a team of Rice's quality.&amp;nbsp; But the real testament to LSU's ability is that they earned a sweep over a top team while playing some of their worst baseball in a month.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;LSU committed five errors in two days.&amp;nbsp; Ranaudo was particulalry victimized, as only one of the five runs he allowed were earned.&amp;nbsp; But it wasn't just the errors.&amp;nbsp; One&amp;nbsp;of the worst defensive plays of the weekend was scored a hit and an error.&amp;nbsp; Seastrunk hit a ball to centerfield which in all honesty should have been caught, but at the very least should have been&amp;nbsp;a single at worst.&amp;nbsp; Mahtook misplayed the ball horribly which allowed Seastrunk to turn on the jets and go for third.&amp;nbsp; Mahtook made a bad throw to hit the cutoff man, Nola, who in turn made an even worse throw to third.&amp;nbsp; The runner was safe and eventually scored.&amp;nbsp; Mahtook was charged with a throwing error, but it very easily could have been charged to Nola or even scored a hit.&amp;nbsp; It was just a God awful defensive play.&amp;nbsp; I don't think words can express just how awful it was, even though it probably shouldn't have been&amp;nbsp;scored an error.&amp;nbsp; It was just miserable defense.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Coleman and Ranaudo both put forth good but not great efforts.&amp;nbsp; Neither were dominating, but both fought hard and pitched well enough to earn wins.&amp;nbsp; Yes, most of Ranaudo's runs were unearned but every pitcher is dependent on his defense.&amp;nbsp; As we've said on this site before, it's far better in college to evaluate a pitcher on RA instead of ERA.&amp;nbsp; Ranaudo allowed five runs in 7+ innings.&amp;nbsp; Coleman struggled to find his spot, but he never trailed and was his typical bulldog self in working out of jams.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mitchell was an out machine, going 1 for 8 and getting thrown out on the basepaths.&amp;nbsp; Mahtook looked completely lost at the plate on Friday, but bounced back yesterday.&amp;nbsp; Gibbs went 1 for 7.&amp;nbsp; Tiger hitters left 18 runners on base in two games.&amp;nbsp; That's just awful.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I'm not saying this to rip on the team.&amp;nbsp; I'm saying this to point out how great this team is.&amp;nbsp; LSU played terrible and still beat one of the best teams in the nation in two games.&amp;nbsp; How awesome is that?&amp;nbsp; How many teams in the nation can play poorly yet still advance?&amp;nbsp; Texas hasn't played its best, but they are advancing because they have gotten the easiest draw in recent memory, except for Fullerton's.&amp;nbsp; But I can't think of another team that's not clicking on all cylinders and still beating down good teams.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Can you imagine what will happen in Omaha if LSU cuts down on the errors, actually gets clutch hits, and the pitchers stop giving up two homers a game?&amp;nbsp; Hell, LSU might win even if those things don't happen.&amp;nbsp; LSU has proven that even when things don't go right, they can still play good enough to beat anyone in the country.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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