SB Nation User Blog: Pradamaster

Happy Fourth!

Pradamaster — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:59:12 -0000

It's Independence Day, and Gilbert is officially back in the fold. Enjoy yourselves!

We'll be back tomorrow with plenty of thoughts on Gilbert's re-signing. Until then, happy Independence Day!

Outlet: Arenas to sign for six years, 111 million

Pradamaster — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:57:28 -0000

Outlet: Arenas to sign for six years, 111 million

Much more to follow later, but he agreed to leave 16 million dollars total on the table. Kudos to the Times for getting this story first.

Surprise, surprise: Professor Hollinger doesn't like what we're doing

Pradamaster — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:53:22 -0000

Sir Hollinger, you know I like you as an analyst, but I need to take issue to this:

In three seasons with the trio of Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, the Wizards have won 43, 41 and 42 games and haven't made it past the first round of the playoffs. The three players are 26, 28 and 32, respectively, so it seems likely that we've seen about the best we're going to get from them. They're an average team, and without an infusion of vastly better players around them, they'll keep being an average team.

Yet instead of blowing that trio up, the Wizards took a Bob-Beamonesque leap of faith this week. First they extended Jamison for four years and $50 million, and then they offered Arenas a monstrous six-year, $127 million package. Given that Arenas is coming off a major knee injury that kept him sidelined nearly all of last season and is heavily dependant on his quickness to be an elite scorer, his offer in particular appears to be a reach...

The Wizards' alternate reality was letting both go in free agency and using what would have been a big chunk of cap space to try to remake the team around Butler -- their best player this past season and the least expensive of the three going forward -- and whomever else they could have signed. At worst, it seems they would have come away with Maggette, and their cap situation would have been far better over the next five seasons -- in fact, they might have been able to get into the LeBron bidding in 2010; James recently named Washington, D.C., as one of his favorite cities...

It sure seems to me the fear of losing out on big-name stars caused Washington to miss out on a fantastic opportunity to remake its roster.

First of all, here's how that first sentence should read (bold are the additions):

In three seasons with the trio of Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler all healthy at the same time, the Wizards have won 42 games in 2006, despite Butler starting the season on the bench, and were near the top of the Eastern Conference and on top of their division in 2007. They haven't made it past the first round of the playoffs in two series at full strength, losing a tight series in 2006 with Butler nursing a broken finger and losing in 2008 with Arenas slow after coming back from knee surgery.

I'm pushing it a little with the external factors at play, but it bothers me to no end when people talk about how this team has never gotten out of the first round without even mentioning the injuries. I know, I know, everyone suffers injuries, but how many teams lose their two best player two weeks before the playoffs? How many teams lose their star for three-quarters of the season and still manage to be back in the playoffs? I'm just saying...

And the point about the Big 3's ages...I mean, didn't he say the same thing last year? Jamison's a little old at 32, but Arenas is still quite young and Butler is right in the middle of his prime. It's not like we're dealing with a bunch of 35-year olds.

Then, there's this point:

Given that Arenas is coming off a major knee injury that kept him sidelined nearly all of last season and is heavily dependant on his quickness to be an elite scorer, his offer in particular appears to be a reach...

Except Golden State offered a max contract, and Sacramento offered to trade their entire team for Gilbert. Overpaying? Maybe, but this isn't like Rashard Lewis last year, where Orlando was literally the only team offering anywhere near a max contract. The Wizards aren't bidding against themselves, because Arenas could collect the same annual salary with Golden State.

There's also the angle that he might take less to help the team, which isn't mentioned. I don't think it changes the fact that the Wizards offered the max, but Arenas might not take it, giving us a little bit more room to improve the team.

To his credit, Hollinger does discuss the alternative plan of letting both these guys go and building around Butler. If we did that, we'd be about 14 million under the cap this year and, if we didn't sign anyone else, a similar amount under the cap next offseason. If we sign Maggette and re-sign Mason, that'd give us a lineup of Daniels-Butler-Maggette-Blatche-Haywood, with Songaila, Mason and Stevenson as the key reserves. Then, we'd have about 17 million in expiring contracts in 2010 (Etan, Haywood and Daniels), and we probably would have enough cap room to make a run at an A-list free agent. But how many of those guys would switch teams anyway? Does it really make sense to get rid of two of our Big Three for the five percent chance that we could land LeBron or Amare Stoudamire? I'd rather not worry about that.

The only hope then is that we draft a stud, but our "rebuilt" team is not particularly young and it's probably just good enough to win 30 games in the East. We'd have to get very lucky to either win the lottery or get a steal in the draft.

I guess my point is that it makes little sense to completely rebuild when all our role players have deals for the next two years or longer. That's a long time to hold onto dead-weight contracts. If those contracts weren't there, then rebuilding might be a better option, but at this point, we're going to have to live with those guys for two years or more had we decided to rebuild.

So yes, it's an option, but not a particularly great one. It'd take two years to completely rebuild our team, and even then, we may never get this close to being a contender.

Let me be entirely clear here. Signing Arenas and Jamison to these long-term deals is a risk. In fact, it's a major risk. If Arenas isn't healthy, or if Jamison really slows down, Hollinger is right that both of those contracts are major albatrosses. He's also right that our young guys may never improve, and we will lose a ton of cap flexibility.

But the alternatives are just as risky in this particular situation. Rebuilding is a dicey scenario, especially when a huge part of the plan is to get in on the 2010 free agent sweepstakes. Re-signing Jamison, but not Arenas means we still don't have much cap room and we're stuck with a veteran team with the upside of 40-45 wins. Re-signing Arenas, but not Jamison gives us more room under the tax, but it also means we have to rely on Blatche to take a major step forward for us to keep up.

Re-signing both means we have more hope of competing than any other scenario. Sure, a lot of things have to break right, but I don't see why this team can't win 55 or more games if everything Hollinger lists breaks right. For a city that has been a laughingstock for so long, we deserve the chance.

Being "players" in free agency: Day 3 of the Gilbert Arenas watch

Pradamaster — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:58:09 -0000

We're still six days away from July 9, when the salary cap and luxury tax figures officially come out. That means we're still six days away from Gilbert Arenas presumably signing the dotted line to make him a Wizard next year.

There's only one problem, and it's one Ivan Carter astutely pointed out yesterday:

Here's the the thing about the Gilbert Arenas contact situation: until he and the Wizards establish some exact figures on that contract, the Wiz won't be able to be active in free agency.

Hmm...that is a bit of an issue. Nobody can officially sign a contract until July 9, but the highly sought-after free agents are being wooed right now. Some of them are even verbally agreeing to deals.

All this is happening, and the Wizards can't really do anything because Gilbert is taking his time while in China. Ernie has been trying to tell free agents to wait it out before the Wizards know exactly what can be offered, but for a highly sought-after guy like James Posey, why should he wait when he's getting so many offers from teams who can make the deal right away? That's asking a lot.

By the time Gilbert makes his decision, Posey might be a Celtic, Corey Maggette might be a Spur, Mikhael Pietrus might be a Piston and Roger Mason might be a New Jersey Net. The Wizards will be left with the scraps.

It's unfortunate, to be sure. Ideally, one of two things should happen. Either Gilbert says "alright, I'll take less no matter what just so we can try to get these guys," or Abe Pollin commits right now to going over the luxury tax no matter what. Then, we could offer our mid-level to Posey and let Gilbert make his own decision.

Then again, however, if we aren't going the luxury tax, how much room would we have anyway under it? As mentioned on Tuesday, assuming the luxury tax level is around 71 million, Gilbert would have to leave about 45 million dollars on the table for us to have enough room to sign James Posey, who almost certainly will go for the full mid-level exception. Unless we go over the luxury tax, Posey may be a pipedream.

That doesn't mean adding anyone is a pipe dream, but it does mean that losing the chance to add a top-notch free agent isn't much to lose sleep over. It's annoying, but I'd rather have Gilbert consider for six days and sign for less money than Gilbert deciding right away to take the max.

It's official: Sonics to Oklahoma City next year

Pradamaster — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 00:35:49 -0000

It's official: Sonics to Oklahoma City next year

As annoying as the Arenas negotiations have been, at least we still have a team. My condolences to the fans in Seattle.

The Nets have a list of about 20 names, mainly wings, and near the top is Roger Mason, a 6-foot-5...

Pradamaster — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:52:30 -0000

The Nets have a list of about 20 names, mainly wings, and near the top is Roger Mason, a 6-foot-5 guard who averaged 8.0 points with Washington last season, when he made a minimum $770,610. Figure he'll command in the $2.5 million range.

New York Post. Considering the source, take this for what you will.

"The ball is in his court now:" Day 2 of the Gilbert Arenas watch

Pradamaster — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:26:23 -0000

More and more, it's looking like there's no way Gilbert Arenas is taking that Golden State offer. Ivan's story today says "it did not appear yesterday that Arenas was seriously contemplating the offer," and he also quotes an anonymous source who said "he's going to be here." ESPN says it's a "virtual certainty" he'll be back, and Antawn Jamison is already talking like Gilbert is on his team.

The holdup is over whether Gilbert is willing to take less money to help the team maintain some form of cap flexibility. The reality is that we're talking about three or four million dollars under the luxury tax instead of no room, but it appears that Gilbert is taking Ernie's request seriously. As mentioned yesterday, Gilbert wants to see the latest salary cap figures before he makes a decision, which clearly indicates taking less is on his mind.

Adding more weight to that is this quote:

Arenas is close to agreeing to a deal with the Wizards, the source said, but he likely will take less than the max out of a desire to give the team more flexibility to re-sign Mason and/or another free agent this summer or future years.

Arenas, according to multiple sources, told the team he wants to wait until the NBA releases the salary cap and luxury tax figures for the coming year - which happens July 8. Then after seeing how much money the Wizards have to work with, he will decide how much "to leave on the table to help the team" and agree to a deal.

I'm overjoyed about this, but I'm also a little worried. What happens when Arenas hears about the new luxury tax and finds out that he'd have to take way less if we want our full mid-level exception? Because that's what it's going to take to sign James Posey. I don't anticipate that becoming an issue, but it might.

No matter, because Gilbert's official decision is still days away. As much as I wish Antawn made a similar concession with his contract, the fact is that Antawn never publicly said he'd take less money for the good of the team. Gilbert has said that. Now, we get to see if he's a man of his word. From all preliminary indications, it sounds like he will be.

For today's thread, I'm curious how everyone feels we approached this negotiation. This quote from an anonymous player agent in Ivan's article can serve as a jumping-off point.

"They're making it clear that, 'Hey, we love you, we want you here, we didn't lowball you, we made a big offer,' but at the same time, they're putting the onus on him to think about the direction of the franchise," said the agent, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he did want to be quoted speaking about a player who is not his client. "It's an interesting strategy and makes sense when you think about how he is. This way, he can still get way more from them than he can get anywhere else and he can say to the fans, 'Hey, I took less to help the team.' "

How things change: Day 1 of the Gilbert Arenas watch

Pradamaster — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:58:50 -0000

UPDATE, 9:04 p.m.: Mike Jones provides some great insights in his latest blog post. It turns out Gilbert's trip to China is actually the first leg of his journey. In the second leg, he's going to Berlin and Barcelona to promote the Wizards' preseason October Europe tour. Why would he do that if he really was going to leave?

More importantly, there's this:

Agent Zero knows he isn't hurting for money. He has a $35 million deal with Adidas and knows that gives him flexibility to sign for less. He is aware that he could take much less and go to a championship contender, but this is his city, in his words, and he'd rather try for a title alongside two other All-Stars, playing for an owner that loves him and a general manager that loves him. And that's why he will wait until the salary cap figures and luxury tax figures come out next Tuesday to decide what to sign for. The cap is expected to be somewhere around $58 million and the luxury tax could come out at about $69 million. The Wizards can go over the salary cap to sign players. But if they spend more than $69 million, they will have to pay dollar for dollar every dollar that they go over that luxury tax ceiling. So, Gilbert wants to help by making sure whatever he signs for gives the team some room to sign someone else in addition to him while avoiding exceeding the tax.

If Gilbert is really waiting to see the cap figures for next year, it shows that he's taking his comments about taking less money to avoid strapping the team's payroll very seriously. That's a sign of maturity, and it's something Baron Davis, for example, didn't demonstrate.

Of course, if the tax is really going to be as low as 69 million this year, we're already screwed, but I'm going to choose to focus on the positive instead of the negative. You're free to do the opposite, of course.

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UPDATE, 5:56 p.m.: Just a reminder to those suggesting the Wizards use Gilbert's money on someone like Emeka Okafor, Josh Smith or Monta Ellis, they can't. This comment and this post explains it all, but to recap:

The Wizards already used a lot of their potential cap space to sign Antawn Jamison. If they let Arenas go, they'd have about four million dollars in cap room and about 17 million dollars under the luxury tax, but could only sign another team's free agent outright with the remaining four million, the mid-level exception (about 5.75 million) or the low-level exception (about 2 million). You can't combine exceptions.

That puts us out of the price range for Okafor, Smith, Ellis, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Baron Davis and possibly even Josh Childress. The only way we get one of those guys is in a sign-and-trade. We would have to give up players on our team to properly match salary (though it wouldn't have to be exact because of our four million dollars of cap space).

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UPDATE, 1:35 p.m.: Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that Abe Pollin has OK'd a 6 year/$125 million deal. He's also saying that it looks like the Warriors are "losing hope" of bringing him back.

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UPDATE, 12:26 p.m.: Well, Abe just gave Gilbert the "You're my guy" treatment. So much for negotiation.

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UPDATE, 12:08 p.m.: Mike Jones says Gil is "close" to accepting a max contract offer, then says two paragraphs later that Gil will likely sign for less than the max to free up cap flexibility. I'm confused.

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Yesterday, I wrote a ton about how the Wizards needed to wait on Gilbert Arenas, because the market wasn't there. My, how I was mistaken.

Seriously, screw Baron Davis. If Davis does what he said he was going to do, we wouldn't even have this problem. Davis decided to opt-out into a market that doesn't have much money available, even though his current team is showing little inclination to re-signing him. Because Davis opted out, Golden State had enough money to offer Arenas the max, thereby driving up Arenas' market.

(By the way, I'm not concerned about the Sacramento angle. They'd have to give us players to get Gilbert, which isn't the worst alternative)

Now, we are kind of stuck. Like with Jamison, there is a very real threat that Gilbert leaves to go somewhere else and we get absolutely nothing to show for it. Even worse, we won't have very much cap room to show for it now that we've re-signed Antawn.

All because Baron Davis wants to play for the Clippers. Goddammit.

Anyway, Ernie is trying to get GIlbert to accept less than a max deal to leave us room for other free agents. How could that work?

As Truthabout wrote, for Jamison to sign a 4 year/50 million dollar deal with 10.5 percent raises, his first year would be for 10,694,000. Using Sham Sports' salary page, we would have 54,019,317 currently committed to our roster for next season once you subtract Gilbert's old deal and add Antawn's and JaVale McGee's. If Truthabout's rough guess at the luxury tax (just over 71 million) is correct, that gives the Wizards about 17 million dollars in cap luxury tax space for next year.

Gilbert has previously said he won't accept a contract that will pay him less than 15 million in the first year. If that were to happen, we'd have only 2 million dollars of wiggle space under the luxury tax next year. That's definitely not a lot to keep Mason, and I doubt we'd be able to find anyone worthwhile for that amount of money. For Gilbert to sign a contract that allows us to use our full mid-level exception (for between 5 and 6 million dollars), his first year would have to pay him only 12 million. Adding in 10.5 percent raises, and his final contract under that scenario is for just over 81.5 million dollars. Something tells me he won't accept that one.

And that's just this year. Add in everyone's raises, plus a new rookie, and we're probably over the tax threshold next year as well, unless we dump one of our mid-level contracts.

We'll just have to wait and see, but our cap flexibility stinks no matter what after this deal. I'm hoping Gilbert signs a deal that allows us to use about half our mid-level exception, but even that doesn't give us much room under the tax. If Abe really wants to improve this team, he might have to bite the bullet and go over the tax. That's our predicament right now.

All thanks to Baron Davis.

WowWowWow: Baron to the Clippers!

Pradamaster — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:42:32 -0000

WowWowWow: Baron to the Clippers!

Five years and 65 million. I'm not sure I like this development, because it officially opens up a spot for Arenas on the Warriors. They can't offer Gilbert any more money, but with Baron out of the fold, Arenas has to become their top option.

Unnecessary urgency

Pradamaster — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:24:23 -0000

If all the latest reports are to be believed, it might be a matter of hours before Gilbert Arenas gets the fat new contract he's been seeking since last summer. Ivan Carter (first link) says he expects the Wizards to be "aggressive" with Arenas, and Mike Jones (second link) has been told that "the Wizards realize it's important to present a handsome offer to Agent Zero right off the bat."

Alright, I'm prepared. I just have one question.

What's the rush?

Now, I think everyone here knows my position on Arenas is that the idea that the Wizards are better without him is pure baloney (as opposed to...unpure baloney? What was I thinking here?). Losing him for nothing or sign-and-trading him are situations I'd like to avoid hearing about. My feeling, as a fan, is that it'll absolutely suck if Gilbert Arenas is playing for someone else next season.

Still, let's be honest here. Gilbert wants at least 100 million dollars over the next six years and reportedly won't settle for less than 15 million in the first year of the deal, but is asking for this with very little negotiating strength. As the esteemed Kelly Dwyer reminds us, the market simply isn't there for him.

Where is Arenas going to find half that on the open market?

Where, exactly, is Gilbert going to sign for maybe a third of that with another team on the open free agent market?

And ... I've repeated myself. No matter, because it deserved the echo. Only the Philadelphia 76ers and Memphis Grizzlies have significant cap space this summer, and the Sixers are no doubt going to use a good chunk of theirs trying to re-sign Andre Iguodala.

It's doubtful Arenas wants anything to do with a rebuilding effort in Memphis, while the Grizz probably don't want to pay a player in his prime while the youngsters are still years away. And certainly without Arenas' potential clone - O.J. Mayo - already on board making maybe $4 million a year.

So that leaves the Wizards to bid against themselves. Sure, there could be a sign and trade, but base-year compensation complications rear their ugly head if Gilbert's first-year raise is too significant, and what big contract (because the contracts have to match in a trade) would Washington take back in return? Who would they want?

Long quote, I know. But it really needs to be said. There is nobody out there other than the Wizards who can pay Arenas anywhere near the amount he wants. Literally. Memphis supposedly has around 15 million dollars of cap space this summer, but they don't seem inclined to spend it all. Even if they did, they already have too many point guards and Gilbert wouldn't want to go to a rebuilding effort yet again. Philadelphia, assuming they re-sign Andre Iguodala, probably has about 12 million of cap space, but they also have Andre Miller and Louis Williams under contract at Gilbert's position. Even if those teams did have the necessary cap room, they couldn't offer Arenas as sixth year, as we've mentioned here before.

Gilbert may be crazy, but he's not stupid. He knows there isn't much of a market out there for him. He knows he needs to make his position stronger.

Call me crazy, but something tells me this two-week trip to China at the beginning of free agency is a calculated negotiating ploy. He's forcing Ernie Grunfeld to make a decision, or else he won't be heard from for two weeks.

Before you shoot this down, let me explain myself. If he had an agent, this whole China trip wouldn't matter, because the two sides could still negotiate while Arenas was out selling shoes to young Chinese ballers. But because Gilbert has chosen to represent himself, Ernie must talk to him about any contract matters. From the sounds of it, Gilbert won't be in the mood to talk from China. Ernie is now faced with a choice. Either give Gilbert what he wants in the next nine hours, or wait for two whole weeks before resuming negotiations.

It's brilliant and it only works because Gilbert is nuts. Because he's such a lunatic on and off the court, many of those close to Gilbert actually believe he'd do something crazy if he doesn't get what he wants. Want proof? Think about this Mike Jones anecdote for a second.

He has already proven himself to be a cut-throat negotiator when signing his latest shoe deal. Arenas once recounted the story to me. He wanted $5 million a year, Adidas wanted to give him $3 million. Arenas said, "Fine, I'll go the @%!$# home with my $2.5, wait for the deal to run out and go somewhere else." Adidas' representatives watched Arenas walk and once the deal ran out, he started to talking to other shoe companies until Adidas came back at him with the figure he wanted.

Funny story. It made me laugh for a second. But here's the thing: Gilbert can't talk to other teams like he can talk to other shoe companies. Presumably, every shoe company is allowed to offer Arenas as much as they want to sign him. Gilbert could go to Nike, ask for 5 million, and Nike would be allowed to take up his request if they feel he's worth that much. But it doesn't work like that in the NBA. Gilbert can't just go to the Lakers and ask for a max contract, because the salary cap doesn't permit the Lakers from making that offer. So why is Jones mentioning it? Beats me, but my guess is that, subconsciously, he's making a connection between Gilbert's antics and Gilbert's contract negotiation. Why else do you think Gilbert would have told Jones that story?

Gilbert's banking on Ernie caving to his demands instead of dealing with a drawn-out situation, but Ernie can still call Gilbert's bluff. Nothing is going to change in two weeks. If anything, things will look worse for Gilbert. Memphis and Philly may have used that cap room already. Sign-and-trade opportunities may have dwindled as teams sign new free agents. If Gilbert still doesn't get what he wants after resuming the negotiations upon his return, what could he possibly do? He could hold out, like Anderson Varejao, but why would he do that when it puts his marketing ventures in serious jeopardy (remember, he's barely played in over a year).

It's a different situation from the Jamison negotiations. At the end of his post, Dwyer bemoans Jamison's contract, wondering why a 32-year old power forward like him could possibly be worth that much money. I wish Jamison would have signed for less, but I understand why we had to do it. Conspiracy or not, there was reportedly a big offer from Philadelphia, so the threat of Jamison leaving was real. Jamison's contract may make him overpaid for his age and skill set, but in this free agent market, it's proper value, because some team did try to pry him away for a similar price.

With Arenas, though, there's no risk of that alternative. We would be bidding against ourselves, literally. And I don't mean like we allegedly did with DeShawn Stevenson last summer.

So I ask again. What's the rush?