[Thanks to prevenge for today's game preview. Game Thread at 7:30. Luol Deng may play. -yfbb]

I initially wrote an entire game preview around the fact that the Bulls' last five guys were better than the Pistons best five guys. It wasn't entirely correct, but there are points where you can actually see the Bulls pulling out a game against the Pistons with the Lucas/Butler/Scalabrine/Gibson/Asik lineup. (One example: against the Wizards.)

So obviously the Bulls are actually playing against, um, the Bucks. You'd think that this destroys most of the preview that I wrote. And it does, except for one thing:

The Bucks just lost to the Pistons.

So, the Bucks. What to make of them? They're a team that you can't really predict: like most Skiles teams, the defense is usually there [though it wasn't last night!], but the offense comes and goes in spurts.

To put this in perspective: the game before losing to the Pistons [breaking the Pistons' 7-game losing streak: did you know that they have less wins than we have losses?], the Bucks did what (here in Chicago) is considered the impossible: they beat the Heat. How, you ask? I have no idea. It seems ridiculous. More fuel for people who say "Just because team x beat team y doesn't mean team x is better than team y!" Makes unbiased analysis real hard to do when that's the case. Which wouldn't be a problem, except that there's a game preview to do.

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As of right now, the Bulls have won 21 more games this year than last. This is huge: for example, a Memphis Grizzlies' blog had this to say in 2009: " The Memphis Grizzlies appeared to take a major step forward in 2009-10, adding 16 wins to their total and nearly reaching the .500 mark with a record of 40-42. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder, with a 27-win improvement, made a bigger step." http://www.opposingviews.com/i/memphis-grizzlies-2009-10-nba-season-recap The Thunder evolved into being a 3~6 seed in the west [no small feat] from being a lottery team, and Memphis into a Playoff team [or, at least, a 6~10 seed, something much better than being perpetually at the bottom]. These prior improvements were mainly the result of absurd improvement [and, in Memphis's case, 'finding' Pau Gasol while magically fixing Zach Randolph]. However, this year, both of those teams have found themselves more or less stuck at that level – they haven't taken leaps upwards. By contrast, we have our Bulls, who were mired at the 8 seed for a year or two: we went from the lowest seed in the playoffs to the highest. In our year.

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[Thanks to Prevenge for today's game preview. Late start, 9:30, on CSNChicago -ed.]

THE HAIR IS COMING!!!

When VDN was coaching the Bulls last year to a 41-41 record [Was it last year? It seems like it was a million years ago, those horrible memories are so long departed], Tom Thibodeau's Boston Celtics were within one game of winning the NBA Finals.

We've already played them once before, losing 100-99 as Derrick Rose kind of re-enacted his Memphis Kodak moment [go to 1:15 if you want to see that again]. The Clippers have gone 12-7 since that time and are in some sort of contention, if they win every game from now, for the low-hanging fruit that is the last playoff spot in the Western Conference [not to be confused with the even lower-hanging fruit that is the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Did you know the 76ers are the eight seed? Wow]. I'm going to predict that VDN somehow gets another 41-41 record, because that would be a strange stat emblematic of how VDN can seem like he's getting players to play at a higher level to, in the end, get nothing but averageness.
Matchups and more rambling commentary after the jump.

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The Bulls are currently headed nowhere. We don't have the role players or starters needed to compete in this league. While Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah are young and improving, Derrick Rose could turn into a star, and Luol Deng is above-average and adding a three point shot to his arsenal, the rest of the team - to be blunt - could use an overhaul.

Derrick Rose is not assertive. I'm sorry, but it's true. He'll never be a superstar in this league because of his reluctance to take a game over. When Rose is in Alpha Dog mode it is a thing of beauty - however, it is so rare that it is nearly nonexistent. Luol Deng is passive and stops trying at the end of fourth quarters, either passing up jump shots or badly missing. Joakim Noah does not have an offensive game to speak of. Rose's defense also needs a lot of work - he lets people score on him almost as will.

Our substitutes are horrible. Brad Miller has lost three steps. Aaron Gray is Aaron Gray. Jannero Pargo is Jannero Pargo [is a shorter and lower % shooting Larry Hughes]. The Bulls do not have enough cap space to sign a max player, despite the fact that their professed plan is one where they hope to sign one in 2010.

How do we fix this?

A trade with the Nets would help both teams out and provide Chicago with that shot in the arm that it needs to get moving.

They have everything we need. And while we would be giving up a lot, we would not be giving up as much as we would take back.

CDR is the M2GWCDAS! Joakim Noah is kind of a center, but not really. He's much more of a PF, and he has no post game. Lopez is much more of a true center and he has a low-post game for us to base our team around. While Rose is developing nicely, if we were able to get Devin Harris back for him, our team would be fine - note, also, that we have a perfectly average starter rotting on the bench in Kirk Hinrich, who could get sub time for both positions.

With this trade, we could jettison Salmons over to the Nets, making sure that we get enough 2010 money to sign a max player! And meanwhile, we can trade Tyrus Thomas for Yi Jianlian - what does TT do for us? Nothing! And Taj isn't ready to start! Yi is steadily improving and, at the very least, will attract crowds.

So I'm proposing this:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yjlnxyy

If the link doesn't work:

We trade:

Noah, Rose, Salmons, Tyrus

They trade:

Harris, Lopez, CDR, Jianlian, and Trenton Hassell.

As you can see, making this trade will improve the wins of our team by 2, according to PER. Meanwhile, all the players we're dumping on the Nets will bring their win total down by 7. We lose Noah and Rose, which is a problem, but with the players we get back we get better as a team. We also become players in 2010.

Look at the financial impact of this trade: we should be able to resign CDR to a small contract [or let him go], and either way his cap hold is small. Meanwhile, we rid ourselves of Salmons' albatross of a contract, guaranteeing ourselves the cap space to sign a maximum player - like Joe Johnson. Johnson can shoot the three, rebound, pass, defend, everything. He's a bonafide star in this league: the only reason he's not known more is because he's playing in Atlanta.

Taj Gibson is our PF of the future. Tyrus Thomas is only in the way. This trade opens up even more playing time for Taj, and brings over a backup to spell him for 10~15 minutes a night, Tony Battie. If Taj were to somehow not work out, as well, we could always use our large amount of cap space to sign Chris Bosh or Carlos Boozer, who would solve our low-post scoring woes and defensive woes. Vinny Del Negro knows: Tyrus Thomas is overrated. We can get a 'promising player' in Yi Jianlian, one who is so motivated to play that he may have lied about his age when he was drafted. He scores better over a chair than Tyrus Thomas ever could. You know who else could score at will over a chair? Michael Jordan. I'm not saying that he's that caliber, but he could get there, with a lot of hard work.

Chris Douglas-Roberts immediately becomes our SG of the future. He's tall and while not as fast as you would like, he's pesky, and he knows where to be on defense. He has an innate ability to find the holes in a defense and rip it apart, and he can create some in isolation with an array of 10-15 foot jumpers. 

There's only one reason I could see the Bulls not making this trade - if the Nets rejected it.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal]

[Thanks to Prevenge for today's game preview. -ed.]

Or, as it is otherwise known, "The Return of Crazy Pills".

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[Thanks to Prevenge for today's game preview. -ed.]

Which Team will get over 80?

Today, at 8 EST [probably a bit later, because of the nature of NBA games], the Chicago Bulls, currently first in the Central Division [thanks, Shaq!], face the Charlotte Bobcats in what promises to be the best basketball matchup this side of the Bulls-Bucks game.

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More after the thing Brad Miller can't do.

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Story originally found here, but that links to here if you don't want to click through.

Who's ready for more injuries next season? Yay!

...

Additionally, Doug Thonus ran a story much like this one a day and four hours ago on that site that's not live yet. chicagonow.com. I'd put a link but I don't know how ... great that would be.

Since this has only been reported on Thonus's website in a couple places [a forum post and blog post: and in Thonus's case he poo-poohs it a lot] and the website linked above, I'm not sure if it's entirely accurate, but the sources seem trustworthy.

    Several exhaustive end-of-season profiles of the Bulls have already been written – see the excellent 'End-of-season awards' post by T-boogie, or the post by rainman. I was struck, however, by the way that these profiles ignored what is perhaps the most important and involving question of these playoffs:

    Are the Bulls pirates, or ninjas?

    Oh, laugh if you must! But this question is one of the gravest importance. For only those who are ninjas have the perseverance and commitment in the off-season required to come back in the next stronger than ever before ... but only those who are pirates share the rock and get open shots.

    Since the Bulls are a collection of players instead of a team [and nowhere is this more evident than when watching them play “offence” or “defence”], I'll analyze their affiliations individually before giving a final observation of how they play as a team.

Where better to start than Derrick Rose? Rose is the golden child – the captain of the ship at this point [sorry, Kirk, and Star Trek references everywhere]. Rose tries to share the ball – he's passive a lot of the time, not talking, waiting for his moment to strike. And then, when he strikes … it is often fatal. Though Rose needs to work on his finishing move at the end of games, and sometimes gets nervous and misses, this can be chalked up mainly to his status as a ninja-in-training.

Ben Gordon's called an 'assassin'. A lot. Ninjas assassinate things, nd Ben Gordon assassinates things - the only difference is that BG [usually] isn't ritually disemboweling people, instead settling for killer threes. He goes forward and attacks. People see him coming, and yet he still surprises them, doing things they thought were impossible. This was the easiest judgment to give by far.

John Salmons is very self-focused – his game is brood-y. He is a lone fighter, taking the ball and then jab-stepping his way into … something. [Originally I thought he was doing a Luol Deng impersonation, but he hits his jumpers.] Because of the deceptive speed and craftiness that Salmons uses to get his shots off, and his ability to hit daggers in crunch time, I have to say that Salmons is, again, a ninja. If he was an actual ninja, he would wander around in a stealthy boat and drink a lot, though. He may become a pirate at any time.

Tyrus Thomas is definitely stealthy – he's normally not even there! Especially when we need young, talented power forwards. I would say more about him, but I can't find him on the court at the end of games. He gets replaced, and then we lose.

Joakim Noah is a pirate. He likes recreational drugs [alcohol or otherwise] and partying, and his game is entirely team-focused. If Joakim was a lone ninja, he would be assassinated immediately. And look at his hair! That's hard to hide. Luckily, Joakim being a pirate means that he shares the ball with his teammates and retrieves key rebounds from the deep seas of Davy Jones' Locker, but unluckily, he isn't a scoring threat. That's all right, though. Everybody needs a pirate or two.

Kirk Hinrich is defensively-oriented and can guard a bunch of people. He's an everyman – therefore he's a pirate! Kirk also can not assassinate anybody or any team to save his life, though in the last half of Game 7 against the Celtics he did what he could to disprove that theory, meaning that this is an open question. Will Kirk take off the eyepatch and have a ninja mask under it, or will he be forced to switch ships [hopefully so he can instigate a mutiny wherever he goes so the Bulls have clearer oceans, but I digress]? Only time will tell.

Brad Miller is a pirate. Looking just at his final three-pointer would make you think that he's a ninja, but he's just not efficient or athletic enough to be in the business anymore – maybe he was a former ninja, but it's hard to tell the way that he attacks now. Underhanded layups and the same love of recreation in all its' forms that Noah has – he's even missing a tooth! Miller may as well wear an eyepatch and go “arrrrrrr!”.

Lindsay Hunter is the wise old sage who sits at the end of the bench and helps the young ninjas learn how to assassinate things - he improves their defense and awareness with drills such as 'dribble the basketball through cones' and 'avoid the knives as you hop on bamboo sticks [the secret origin of Derrick Rose's infamous apple-peeling accident]. He's an old, clever ninja, who can't really kill anybody anymore, but has enough moxie to be useful.

Anthony Roberson, Aaron Gray, and Lindon Johnson are the stereotypical disposable people at the end of the bench – since Aaron is so animated on the bench, though, I have to say that he's a pirate. Since there are far more easily killed ninjas than pirates, though, the other two are most definitely ninjas, Linton Johnson being that hapless and well-meaning ninja that a good ninja takes with him to battle only to see him die in a tragic way.

Jerome James is a fat ass, and is therefore a pirate. I don't think he would be able to get a ninja suit on, but maybe with a little inspiration this can be worked around.

Tim Thomas is a person who I refuse to believe exists, so I am unable to comment on his leanings. Demarcus Nelson didn't play this year, but I am assured that he is a ninja in training by those who know better.

Vinny Del Negro is so unused to being off of his ship for prolonged stretches that he attempted to force the team to attend his own Super Bowl party - he is a pirate, and a damaging one at that. Luckily[?], his lackadaisical camaraderie has not infected the rest of the team.

In conclusion, I have to say that this team is mostly composed of ninjas. While there are a couple pirates, they have not been able to sway the ninjas, who continue to destroy. Certain ninjas had additional incentives this year to attempt to work outside of the team structure as well, which could not have helped VDN's mission to create a scurvy crew to take over as the Minnesota Vikings of the NBA. It can be reasonably assumed from the data that Vinny Del Negro attempted to turn the Bulls into pirates, and then one of them [most likely Ben Gordon] abducted his child, threatening their lives unless he would allow them to do their own things.

The Bulls appear to have Real Ultimate Power, but I would not get in to a ship piloted by them – it would most likely be torn asunder from the awesome fury of the sword battles. Heed this advice well the next time you have a chance to be driven around by a Bull – it could save your life.

A Bulls group picture, showing the team's true identity, is available here.

[From the FanPosts. I only caught the last several minutes of this game, saw Brad Miller looking completely wiped (Hinrich too, but he always looks that way), and figured the worst of Vinny. Hey, it was happening when the Bulls were winning too, and it sucked then. Wins or losses, they're not going to be a good team anytime soon. -ed]

So. Joakim Noah.

To get the rote work out of the way:

Noah was out of shape at the beginning of the season. Oh wow, that sucks, etc. etc. Of course, as the season progressed, Noah hired a personal trainer and immediately started improving. Currently, looking at basketball-reference.com, Noah is second in total Win Score behind BG - but he's played less than 2/3 of BG's minutes, and Win Scores aren't per-minute scores. [He's second in Offensive Win Scores[!!!] behind Gordon and second in Defensive behind TT.] He's fifth in PER on the team - and PER is a strictly offensive measurement.

Let's use today as an example. When Noah was on the floor the Bulls were a +7, highest of anybody on the team. He got 7 rebounds and made all four of his FT's.

Miller ended up playing the entire fourth quarter and was completely gassed at the end of the game. He also jumped into Tyrus as he attempted to slam Gordon's miss home when time expired [joy!].

In the last five games, Noah's minute distribution has looked like this:

35,35,33,21,19

In the last five games, we have won three games and lost two in this order:

W,W,W,L,L

Looking at the other games, while the data doesn't exactly correlate [we've won games where Noah's been out and lost games [Lakers] where he's been in ... oh, the pitfalls of statistics], it's close. When the Bulls were blown out by the Magic, Noah had 12 minutes. [He also had four personal fouls, but that doesn't mean he can't play. No, that's 6 fouls, Vinny. And it's not as though anything else was working.] Noah played 24 minutes against the Nets when we lost to them 111-91, with Devin Harris going off for 42[!]. Let me think: who do we have to rotate and help on crafty guards that attack the basket?

Correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation, but in this case ... it's not exactly rocket science. Miller's great: he's been helping our bigs tremendously, but that doesn't mean that we have to play him 40 minutes a game until he breaks like Shaq did before he was traded.

Or, with Del Negro as our coach, perhaps it is rocket science.