SBNation.com User Blog: Pricetopher

NFL Fantasy Football Week 13: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Why even question me at this point?!

Pricetopher — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 08:43:59 -0000

Fantasy Football – Week 13

QB’s – Start ‘Em!

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) – It would seem as if Superman returned in full-form over the past few weeks as Carolina Panthers (3-8) QB Cam Newton (82.9 QB Rating - 2,701 YDS, 10 INT's, 11 TD's) has averaged over 18 points in 3 of his past 4 games. This weekend should be no different as Newton and the Kittens are heading into Arrowhead Stadium (a place not as dangerous as once thought to be) to face a Kansas City Chiefs () team attempting to recover from both a brutal season and tragedy as one of the player's, just yesterday, took a girlfriend's and his own life. Don't expect to see Pouty Cam this weekend when the Panthers act like they're good or something while putting a few back-to-back wins together in a futile attempt to end the season on a "high note."

Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) – Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) QB and professional ginger Andy Dalton (94.0 QB Rating - 2,769 YDS, 11 INT's, 23 TD's) has been on absolute fire(crotch) for owners in recent weeks, putting up 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games; not to mention the fact that the San Diego Chargers (4-7) also have allowed 20 or more fantasy points to each of the last three quarterbacks to face them, so Dalton has a chance to keep up the stat-sheet success in this AFC... ummm, "battle."

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49'ers) – San Francisco 49'ers (8-2-1) - my God, I hate writing that record out - QB Colin Kaepernick (102.3 QB Rating - 680 YDS, 1 INT, 3 TD's) has scored close to 40 combined fantasy points in his last two games, so his value is on the rise. Assuming Kaepernick remains atop the 49'ers' depth chart (which he should, as I hear Smith is looking to apply for unemployment benefits), he should post a great total against a St. Louis Rams (4-6-1) defense that has allowed an average of 17.82 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks at home. Nothing like having your franchise QB's career with your team on the line when all he can do is watch from the sidelines and hope there's still a spot for him come next week!

RB’s - Start ‘Em!

Trent Richardson (Cleveland Browns) – Last week, Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) BenJarvus Green-Ellis (201 CAR, 767 YDS, 5 TD's) run all over the Oakland Raiders (3-8) last week knows just how vulnerable that unit is to decent backs. That makes Cleveland Browns (3-8) RB Trent Richardson (209 CAR, 755 YDS, 6 TD's) an absolute must-start in all fantasy leagues. Oakland has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs at home, so look for "T-Rich" to run wild on these goons.

Bryce Brown (Philadelphia Eagles) – Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) new starting RB, Bryce Brown (51 CAR, 319 YDS, 2 TD's) went off last week, leading all runners in fantasy points in the absence of LeSean McCoy (177 CAR, 750 YDS, 2 TD's). Assuming McCoy is out once again, Brown is a terrific option against the Dallas Cowboys (5-6) defensive line. Their sagging overall defense has allowed 16-plus fantasy points to running backs in each of their last four games overall. Just allow me this one, singular bright spot for the Eagles this week without spoiling it... please?!

C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills) – Buffalo Bills (4-7) head coach Chan Gailey named C.J. Spiller (123 CAR, 830 YDS, 4 TD's) his starter this week, adding that he should also see 60 percent of the snaps. That's more than enough for the explosive Clemson University product, who faces a Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) defense that has surrendered 12 total touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs overall, ranking 28th and 29th in passing and rushing defense. It's sad, really... kind of like watching Helen Keller try to find an outfit that color-coordinates, really.

WR’s – Start ‘Em!

Eric Decker (Denver Broncos) – Although Denver Broncos (8-3) WR Eric Decker's (54 REC, 685 YDS, 8 TD's) stock has tumbled in recent weeks, as he's failed to score more than 8.50 fantasy points in three straight contests, I'd still start him against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) who are dead last in passing defense, giving up 315.5 yards-per-game to opposing quarterbacks. The Bucs defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers on the road, so Decker has a good chance to succeed, especially with that one QB throwing the rock... what's his name again? Meh, whatever.

Cecil Shorts III (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Can you even consider Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) WR Cecil Shorts, III (36 REC, 747 YDS, 6 TD's) a sleeper anymore? Regardless, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight games and five of his last six overall. The Buffalo Bills (4-7) have given up 14 touchdowns to wideouts this season - that's tied for the seventh-most in the NFL, so Shorts needs to be active today on your rosters. I understand that his name sounds as if he's a fictional character on "What's Happening", but that still doesn't make him a bad option for today, ok?!

Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys) – Dallas Cowboys (5-6) controversial WR Dez Bryant (65 REC, 880 YDS, 6 TD's) should get the start of the week in Week 12, is back in the saddle with a nice matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (3-8). The third-highest scoring player at his position in the last four weeks, Bryant should see plenty of targets against the Eagles with Miles Austin being injured. He had 14.70 fantasy points against them in Week 10 - look for more today when they take on Philly's J.V. squad.

QB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) – Baltimore Ravens (9-2) QB Joe Flacco (87.0 QB Rating - 2,850 YDS, 7 INT's, 14 TD's) has been a good fantasy option at home overall, but this week's matchup against the rival and visiting Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) makes him a huge risk to me. In four career home games against the black and yellow, the veteran has averaged just 224 yards with five touchdowns. Pittsburgh has also had one of the toughest defenses against quarterbacks in 2012, ranking 1st in pass defense (165.7 YPG) and 5th against the rush (91.5 YPG). Hell, it's not like the Steelers can rely on their quarterback situation to put up points, so they're defense is going to have to pretty much do it all today.

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) – If we have learned anything about San Diego Chargers (4-7) starting QB Philip Rivers (88.0 QB Rating - 2,689 YDS, 14 INT's, 18 TD's) this season, it's that you can't trust him to post good totals... or to not go on vacation with other league QB's. In fact, he's posted fewer than 15 fantasy points in five of his last six games. The Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks overall, so the matchup isn't good for Rivers either. Besides, this man has almost personally tanked my fantasy team and I'm being a bitter little bitch about it, quite frankly.

Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) – A sleeper last week, Seattle Seahawks (6-5) starting QB Russell Wilson (93.9 QB Rating - 2,051 YDS, 8 INT's, 17 TD's) had a terrific stat line with over 20 fantasy points against the struggling Miami Dolphins (5-6). Unfortunately, he's likely to struggle this week against the Chicago Bears (8-3) 3rd-ranked (200.7 passing yards-per-game). Their defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks at home, so Wilson could be in for a difficult afternoon. Besides, the man's more hot and cold, on-again-off-again than my ex... and almost as bipolar.

RB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Reports out of Pennsylvania suggest that Pittsburgh Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall (34 CAR, 113 YDS, 0 TD's) has fallen to third on the Steelers depth chart behind both Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman, so he needs to be benched (or even released at this point) in all fantasy leagues. In fact, it's hard to trust any one of the three Steelers running backs in what has become a committee of... well... I like to call them Carolina 2.0 - pointless to own.

Shonn Greene (New York Jets) – Not only has New York Jets (4-7) RB Shonn Greene fallen into a deep statistical slumber, scoring fewer than seven fantasy points in each of his last three games, he is now also losing carries to backup Bilal Powell. The Arizona Cardinals (4-7) have given up just five rushing touchdowns to running backs all season, so Greene isn't in a good position to reverse his fortunes in the Battle of Who Gives A Shit at University of Phoenix Stadium today.

Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) – Denver Broncos (8-3) RB Knowshon Moreno (28 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD) posted a nice stat line last week, scoring 11.10 fantasy points in a win over the Kansas City Chiefs (1-10). Unfortunately, an upcoming matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) isn't as favorable. No defense in the league has allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs (1st - 81.5 rushing YPG), so Moreno will have more trouble finding success with the ground game today than Casey Anthony has starting her own daycare.

WR’s – Sit ‘Em!

Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Barring a miraculous return, Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) QB Ben Roethlisberger (2,287 YDS, 4 INT's, 17 TD's) is going to miss another contest. That's bad news for WR Mike Wallace (47 REC, 572 YDS, 6 TD's) who has been invisible in the stat sheets over the past three weeks. What's more impressive/of a letdown, the Baltimore Ravens (9-2) held Wallace to just 24 yards and 0.40 fantasy points back in Week 11. Proceed with caution... especially when starting douche bags with afro-mohawks.

Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs) – Want two reasons to bench Bowe? Brady and Quinn. There ya' go... you get the idea. Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) WR Dwayne Bowe (53 REC, 667 YDS, 3 TD's) has been a fantasy disaster in recent weeks, scoring no more than 6.50 points in a single game since Week 4. The Carolina Panthers (3-8) have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the road, which is just another reason to bench Bowe this week... not to mention the fact that the quarterback throwing the ball to him is about as overrated as his alma-mater this season in college football.

Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles) – Although Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) WR Jeremy Maclin's best fantasy stat line in the last five weeks has come against the Dallas Cowboys (5-6). But with DeSean Jackson (45 REC, 700 YDS, 2 TD's) out for the season, Maclin is going to see a lot of CB Brandon Carr (35 TACK, 1 INT) this week. And unless starting QB Michael Vick (79.2 QB Rating - 2,165 YDS, 9 INT's, 11 TD's) returns to action, rookie QB Nick Foles (65.3 QB Rating - 542 YDS, 3 INT's, 1 TD) will get the call once again. That's not good for Maclin... or for viewers. Did anyone else catch the abomination that was this past Monday's night's game?! Puke.

NFL Fantasy Football Week 10: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Because I Said So!

Pricetopher — Sun, 18 Nov 2012 12:42:12 -0000

Fantasy Football – Week 10

QB’s – Start ‘Em!

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) – Hopefully by now most of you have heard about this new guy from Stanford who came to Indy this season as a rookie. If not, let me school you a little bit on why Indianapolis Colts (6-3) QB Andrew Luck (79.1 QB Rating - 2,631 YDS, 9 INT's, 10 TD's) has personally been referred to as "Beast Mode" all season. Apart from the fact that the man simply never goes down and finds ways to complete and convert, over the past four games Luck has gotten into a comfortable groove, scoring 16+ fantasy points - including two straight starts where he has scored multiple touchdowns. For some reason, people think powerhouse whenever the New England Patriots (6-3) and home field come to mind, completely ignoring the fact that although 3-1 at Foxboro, they have allowed an average of 18+ fantasy points to QB's at home. Combine that with the fact that their 29th-ranked secondary (285.3 YPG) leaves holes wider than Ndamukong Suh's ass in coverage and you've got a ton of points awaiting one rookie signal-caller. You know, on second thought, if you don't know about Luck by now, I promise you will after today's game. There's a reason the man's jersey is already hanging up at the NFL Hall of Fame in Canton, OH. Your move, world.

Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders) – Although his team looks terrible, Oakland Raiders (3-6) QB Carson Palmer (86.8 QB Rating - 2,723 YDS, 9 INT's, 15 TD's) has been absolutely killing it of late, scoring 18+ fantasy points in three of his last four games, including multiple touchdowns in his last three match-ups. And even though the New Orleans Saints (4-3) defense is starting to take shape with newly anointed defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo looking more and more comfortable, the truth is, they still have a long way to go before actually shutting down an opposing offense. The Saints are currently ranked 31st in secondary coverage, allowing an average of 307.3 yards-per-game. And regardless of the fact that they've won four out of their last five games, they have done so by still giving up an insane amount of points on the board as well as an average 24.37 PPG to opposing quarterbacks on the road. They simply prefer to have a shoot-out and hope the opposition comes up lame.

Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) – Coming off an insane showing last week, Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) QB Andy Dalton (91.1 QB Rating - 2,329 YDS, 11 INT's, 18 TD's) is heading to Arrowhead Stadium to face a Kansas City Chiefs (1-8), who has a decent secondary unit, averaging only 214.0 yards-per-game through the air, ranking 9th in the NFL. Regardless, the Chiefs are coming off a short week after losing a nail-biter in overtime on Monday Night Football and have surprisingly allowed 18 touchdown passes on their home turf. Besides, when all is said and done, it's the Chiefs, people... they find ways to screw things up.

RB’s - Start ‘Em!

Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) – Calling for New England Patriots (6-3) RB Stevan Ridley (172 ATT, 814 YDS, 6 TD's) to have a breakout game this week hurts more than you or anyone else could imagine. That being said, the numbers don't lie. The Indianapolis Colts (6-3) head into Foxboro hosting the 22nd ranked rushing defense, giving up an average 120.3 yards-per-game on the ground. Although both Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are healthy this weekend, I see Ridley having a decent day with most of the Colts attention rightfully being directed towards TE Rob Gronkowski (46 REC, 611 YDS, 8 TD's) and WR Wes Welker (66 REC, 810 YDS, 2 TD's) - let's pray they just can't man-up today and sit this one out. "Our Father, who art in Heaven, hallowed be thy name..."

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) – Talk about your bipolar players this season - St. Louis Rams (3-5-1) RB Steven Jackson (137 ATT, 504 YDS, 2 TD's) is just that, if nothing else. This week Jackson faces the New York Jets (3-6) who have given up an average of 20+ fantasy points-per-game on the road this season, ranking a surprising 30th in the NFL, giving up an average of 145.0 yards-per-game to opposing backs. Jackson threw up over 100-yards last week against the league's 6th best rushing defense who allows only 95.3 yards-per-game when he went off on the San Francisco 49'ers (6-3-1) - look for him to have another exceptional day today. What's up with these records, anyway? Did the NHL come back and I not get the memo?!

Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Remember two weeks ago when I told you to start Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) RB Doug Martin (173 ATT, 862 YDS, 7 TD's) and he had 251 yards rushing and 4 TD's?! Ahhh, what am I saying, of course you do! I mean, people just don't forget that kind of thing! Anyway, Martin is back and looking to have another big day when the Bucs face a decent, 16th-ranked Carolina Panthers (2-7) defense, who has allowed 113.0 rushing yards-per-game. Regardless, they're still the Panthers and I'm still damn good at what I do. So, start 'em!

WR’s – Start ‘Em!

Eric Decker (Denver Broncos) – Since more and more teams are double-teaming Denver Broncos (6-3) star WR Demaryius Thomas (54 REC, 891 YDS, 4 TD's), it has left room for people like WR Eric Decker (48 REC, 598 YDS, 7 TD's) to exploit defenses, allowing the master himself, QB Peyton Manning (108.0 QB Rating - 2,705 YDS, 6 INT's, 21 TD's) to make superstars and reliable starters out of uncommon names. The San Diego Chargers (4-5) have yet to put a win up against even a decent passing team, today will be no exception. If anyone thinks San Diego even has a chance at slowing down Denver's passing game, they're obviously exercising their newly-found Colorado rights a little too much. Well, I suppose it is a 4:20 kickoff...

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders) – If you can, be as smart as I am. Ok, now for a more realistic goal - try handcuffing both Oakland Raiders (3-6) WR's Darrius Heyward-Bey (24 REC, 371 YDS, 3 TD's) and soon-to-be household name Denarius Moore (34 REC, 575 YDS, 5 TD's) next season. When healthy, this duo scores points in bunches. Expect that to continue today when facing a terrible New Orleans Saints (4-5) secondary, currently giving up 307.3 yards through the air and over 37-points per road game this season - looking something like Kansas State's secondary in last night's disgusting loss to Baylor. Sorry, sorry... my sports-betting colleague and friend Kelly Stewart (Twitter - @kellyinvegas) and I lost an ass-load of money on them just hours ago and I'm still not really over it, ok?! Hell, I think she's still drunk somewhere in a Vegas dive bar, rocking back and forth in a corner, in total disbelief that Notre Dame is the #1 team in the country. Maybe I should call and check up on her.

Steve Smith(Carolina Panthers) – Carolina Panthers (2-7) WR Steve Smith (39 REC, 649 YDS, 1 TD) has been a big disappointment, to say the very least this season. Today may be the turnaround he needs when he faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) team who ranks last in the league for defensive secondaries (32nd - 321.3 YPG) and who he's statistically done extremely well against in past match-ups. If the Bucs continue to allow 32+ points-per-game to the opposition's wideouts, look for Smith to be Carolina's main target. Hopefully today will be the day Tampa Bay stops giving out points like Rex Ryan gives out foot rubs - I've got too much riding on 'em.

QB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) – When it comes to betting, one of my main rules is to never play an AFC-South team if they're more than (-3) on the board. That being said, I'm sure most think QB Matt Schaub (91.7 QB Rating - 2,013 YDS, 6 INT's, 13 TD's) and the Houston Texans (8-1) are faring to have an exceptional day today while at home, facing the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) - well, the Texans may do well as a team, but I can't say the same for Schaub. If you can recall, Schaub put up under 8 fantasy points earlier this season against the Jags and has statistically proven to be a sit this week, throwing for multiple touchdowns only once in their last five meetings! I know it's the Jaguars, people... but, have you watched Schaub lately? Blegh.

Alex Smith (San Francisco 49'ers) – San Francisco 49'ers (6-2-1) QB Alex Smith (104.1 QB Rating - 1,731 YDS, 5 INT's, 13 TD's) took one hell of a shot last week and went out of the game with a concussion. Assuming he starts this weekend, I wouldn't start him in your lineup for the plain and simple fact that he's facing a Chicago Bears (7-2) defense that will absolutely, without a doubt, send him back to the locker room early. Chicago has halted nearly every offense they've faced, and it wouldn't be too terribly difficult to do the same to a team lacking much offensive production in the first place. Yeah, it's in San Francisco... big deal. I don't care if this game is on the moon, the 49'ers are going to take some serious shots and the fourth quarter will probably be played with two backup QB's going at one another.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) – Baltimore Ravens (7-2) QB Joe Flacco (2,331 YDS, 7 INT's, 13 TD's) is traveling to Heinz Field to face a staunch Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) defense who have only given up a little over 10 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks at home this season. With that, the top-ranked passing defense the Steelers attain (171.1 passing YPG) coupled with the 5th-ranked rushing defense (94.6 rushing YPG) will be ready to completely dismantle Flacco who, in my opinion, is absolutely terrible on the road the vast majority of the time. Just because the Steelers starting quarterback is out, doesn't mean they aren't looking to help Flacco join him on the sidelines.

RB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49'ers) – The last time I told everyone to sit San Francisco 49'ers (6-2-1) RB Frank Gore (140 ATT, 753 YDS, 5 TD's), he ended up doing quite well against a good defense. So, you're telling me I had ONE miscall over the 10 weeks of football, I get it. I'm still pretty damn good at this, no matter if you choose to accept it or not. Granted, without a starting quarterback being 100%, if playing at all, you'd think the Niners would have to rely heavily on the run. This may be true, but I'm sure you may want to start practicing the Wildcat as much as possible when the top defense of the Chicago Bears (7-2) comes to town. Chicago is allowing just over 11 fantasy points to the opposition's ground game when on the road. I mean, it's not like they can rely on their offensive production to do anything. Gross.

Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers) – San Diego Chargers (4-5) RB Ryan Mathews (112 ATT, 475 YDS, 1 TD) has failed to score in the double-digits for fantasy since week 5 of the NFL season. The Denver Broncos (6-3) also have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs when suiting up at Mile High Stadium this season. That being said, the Chargers seem to consistently rely on the inconsistent passing "attack" of QB Philip Rivers (89.3 QB Rating - 2,203 YDS, 12 INT's, 15 TD's) far too often, not allowing Mathews more carries than expected from jump, not to mention when they inevitably are forced to attempt to come from behind today. Sit down, Mathews... you've screwed my draft up for two seasons in a row now... dick.

Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers) – It may be a surprise to some, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) hold the NFL's top rushing defense, allowing only 80.1 yards-per-game - oddly enough, their passing defense ranks dead last, giving up 321.3 yards-per-game through the air. That's just weird, man. Anyway, if you've listened to what I've preached all season long, you've gotten rid of nearly everyone in a Carolina Panthers (2-7) uniform and are starting CFL players in leu of some of these... well, we'll call them athletes... for lack of a better term. Today will be no different for RB Jonathan Stewart (70 ATT, 266 YDS, 0 TD's) who has been dismal at best, yet recently moved to the top spot on the depth chart. Fact is, Stewart has yet to produce more than 8 fantasy points since the second week of play. What? You need a few more minutes to mull over his stellar stats? Ok, I'll give you some time... go on... I'll wait...

WR’s – Sit ‘Em!

Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens) – A solid week last week may have most thinking Baltimore Ravens (7-2) WR Torrey Smith (31 REC, 548 YDS, 7 TD's) is a valid starter for this week - think again. The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) have the #2 overall defense in the league and absolutely destroy receivers venturing into their secondary. Not much needs to be said here, so trade in your dreads and purple mesh for a terrible towel. Flacco and the rest of the offensive crew on the Ravens side of the ball are in for a long, long game.

Danario Alexander (San Diego Chargers) – Since I figured RB Ryan Mathews would get lonely sitting on the bench all alone, I thought we could throw San Diego Chargers (4-5) WR Danario Alexander (8 REC, 195 YDS, 1 TD) over there with him. It happens so many times per season, actually at least once every week or so, but just because a man gets hot for ONE game (against the league's worst secondary, mind you) doesn't mean he needs to immediately be scooped up off the waiver wire. Sit down with your friend, Dan... may I call you Dan? Screw it... you know what, I'm calling you Dan.

Cecil Shorts III (Jacksonville Jaguars) – His name is Cecil Shorts, III (29 REC, 561 YDS, 4 TD's). He plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8). They're traveling to face the Houston Texans (8-1). Again, HIS NAME IS CECIL SHORTS, III! Need I say more?

2012 NFL Week 9 Pick of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Pricetopher — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 22:23:17 -0000

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)

Pick – Cowboys (+4.5)

Pick of the Week: Five Stars!!!

At first glance, one may think this game is a no-brainer for the undefeated Atlanta Falcons (7-0) to take off with a dominant victory over the disappointing Dallas Cowboys (3-4), especially at home. It's only upon deeper investigation that the "obvious choice" becomes far less clear than before. Let me preach to ya' for a minute...

Not to take anything away from the great season the Falcons have put together thus far, but all too much people see, to be focusing on the overall record - which is great for standings, but means nothing when betting ATS (against the spread). Atlanta starting QB Matt Ryan (103 QB Rating - 2,018 YDS, 6 INT's, 17 TD's) is definitely having an amazing season throwing the ball and leading his offense to wins with his defensive units stepping up in crunch time to seal the deal. But, in delving deeper into the equation, the Falcons are 3-0 at home - but, when you combine all three and total their winning margins together, you see that an average home victory comes by a mere 3.66 points. Two of those three wins coming against Carolina and Oakland, both games coming down to the wire, needed a little bit of talent, luck and prayer to pull out the "W". Now, Ryan must do the same, facing one of the top defensive secondaries in the league (3rd - 187.7 YPG) this time. A team far different from the likes of the Panthers, Raiders, Redskins, etc.

What many forget is that, aside from turning the ball over in crucial situations, Cowboys QB Tony Romo (78.8 QB Rating - 2,073 YDS, 13 INT's, 9 TD's) leads the NFL's 3rd-ranked passing offense, currently averaging 297.3 yards-per-game. The fact remains, as people count the Cowboys out of contention, they still remain tied for 2nd with the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Look for Dallas to have their game faces on tonight, hungrier than Atlanta for a big win. With Romo (hopefully... for the love of God, HOPEFULLY) protecting the ball a bit more than usual - AKA, only 1 INT or so. Book it, kids!

Just So Ya’ Know:

Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
Cowboys are 3-1 ATS away this season
Falcons are 1-2 ATS home this season
Cowboys last loss to Falcons was September 7, 2003

2012 NFL Week 9 Rock Solid Pick: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Pricetopher — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 16:53:15 -0000

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)

Pick – Colts (+2)

Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)

When first capping this game, I figured the Indianapolis Colts (4-3) would be favored by 2 or 2.5 points, especially being at home. Imagine the shock on my face when I saw the line come out right on the money... just flipped, making the Miami Dolphins (4-3) a favorite!

The Colts are a decent football team, rebuilding year or not, as are the Dolphins. But, the main concern here is the number of points given up when determining the strengths versus weaknesses for each team. The Dolphins have a solid rushing attack (11th - 115.9 YPG) while the Colts weakness is definitely stopping the run (27th - 137.4 YPG).

On the flip-side of the equation, rookie QB Andrew Luck (74.6 QB Rating - 1,971 YDS, 8 INT's, 8 TD's) and Indianapolis' passing game is what will win this one outright, without the points. Indy's 9th-ranked passing offense is averaging 265.9 yards-per-game and is guaranteed to exploit Miami's atrociously 27th-ranked passing defense, giving up 281.0 yards-per-game through the air. Granted, the Dolphins have a great defensive line (2nd - 82.0 YPG), but when was the last time anyone saw the Colts win a game with their run game?! Luck avoids pressure like a champ and makes plays happen; not to mention having WR Reggie Wayne (54 REC, 757 YDS, 2 TD's) on the receiving end of most clutch receptions.

Dolphins starting QB Ryan Tannehill (75.8 QB Rating - 1,472 YDS, 6 INT's, 4 TD's) is banged up and will get the start, which only adds to the list of things shaping up in the Colts favor. Personally, I feel the Dolphins have a better shot at winning with backup Matt Moore (96.6 QB Rating - 131 YDS, 1 TD) under center, especially with Tannehill not being in one-hundred percent, but I guess that's why I'm not the head coach. Also, if WR Brian Hartline (33 REC, 555 YDS, 1 TD), who is listed as questionable due to a groin/hamstring injury, does get the nod to start, I think it's too soon and he won't make it all four quarters.

The Colts are a good team, especially at home... and when Head Coach Chuck Pagano shows his face in Lucas Oil Stadium today, that place will be insane and they'll definitely win one for him and his hardships alone. I know this team all too well.

Just So Ya’ Know:

Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings
Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis

NFL Fantasy Football Week 9: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Just In Time!

Pricetopher — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 14:16:32 -0000

Fantasy Football – Week 8

QB’s – Start ‘Em!

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) – Carolina Panthers (1-6) QB Cam Newton (75.2 QB Rating - 1,701 YDS, 8 INT's, 5 TD's) has definitely gone from rookie sensation to being amidst his sophomore slump. Although Newton gets numbers and has breakout games here and there, his lack of consistency has fantasy owners in desperate need of a big game. Look no more, ladies and gentlemen - today is your (and his) day. The Washington Redskins (3-5) remain last in the league, giving up an average of 314.3 passing yards-per-game, allowing even teams like the Rams to dish out 31-point games. Start Newton and be happy with your decision, knowing that the 'Skins have been allowing close to 20 fantasy points per QB faced this season. "Cameron, you're ungrounded - but the second you step out of line again, it's back to your room you go! Hear me?!"

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) – Holy hell, look who we've got here! Indianapolis Colts (4-3) QB Andrew Luck (74.6 QB Rating - 1,971 YDS, 8 INT's, 8 TD's) is back for his second consecutive week on the starter's squad due less to his cool FIFA Soccer commercials (I know, soccer?) and more because of how amazing he has been for fantasy owners when playing inside of The Drum - averaging 22.5 fantasy points-per-game. Granted, the Miami Dolphins (4-3) have an excellent defensive front, but they are definitely lacking when it comes to secondary coverage. The 'Phins are currently ranked 27th in the league, giving up an average of 281.0 yards-per-game through the air and average over 16 points-per-game given up to opposing quarterbacks this season. Besides, they still have teal as one of their main colors. I mean, how can you even condone backing this team, let alone find the proper shoes to match when dealing with teal? Talk about frustration.

Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) – I hope no one got sick reading this name, because if you've owned Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) QB Michael Vick (78.6 QB Rating - 1,823 YDS, 8 INT's, 9 TD's), you've probably been queazy all season. Hear me out on this one - assuming he gets the nod to start on Sunday (yes, it's questionable) Vick is going up against a New Orleans Saints (2-5) defense who have been dead last in the league overall and have allowed 15 touchdown passes, which remains worst in the league. I would get a solid start out of Vick while you can, before he either gets benched or thrown back in the dog house - wait, don't put him in there! Too soon?

RB’s - Start ‘Em!

Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins) – Am I the only one smitten by how badass Washington Redskins (3-5) RB Alfred Morris (151 ATT, 717 YDS, 5 TD's) has been? I think the man runs like a tank and has no regard for his body or anyone else's, for that matter. Since the Redskins have had to come from behind and rely on their rookie quarterback's leg work to get them back into games, it has definitely taken away from Morris' shine... a bit. That aside, today is going to be an absolute monstrous day for the Washington ground-attack and fantasy football's leading rusher when the visiting Carolina Panthers (1-6) bring their sub-par rushing defense (20th - 114.4 YPG) to town. Don't rely on last week's slump against Pittsburgh to deter you from a huge week this week in D.C. - Morris will get to the end zone, even if he has to swim there. What? Too soon again?! DAMN!

Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions) – Truth is, I was really leaning towards putting Reggie Bush on today's group of starters; but honestly, I didn't want to jinx anything against my Colts. I understand I'm supposed to remain objective and unbiased - but, what you obviously don't get is that this is my article and I'll do whatever the hell I please. I'm glad that's now settled and out of the way. Shall we proceed? Anyway, Detroit Lions (3-4) RB Mikel Leshoure (76 ATT, 305 YDS, 1 TD) has possibly had a worse time carrying the ball than my uncle this season... and he lost both arms in Vietnam. Truth is, Leshoure is worth the gamble against a 25th-ranked Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) rushing defense that is allowing 135.7 yards-per-game on the ground. Jacksonville is typically even worse at home, for whatever reason, making Detroit's running game look rather premium. Do it, I dare ya'.

Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) RB Doug Martin (129 ATT, 543 YDS, 3 TD's) will have a good day ahead of him when he travels to the west coast to face an Oakland Raiders (3-4) defensive front which surprisingly enough ranks 11th in the NFL, giving up only 102.1 yards-per-game. Strangely, Oakland still averages giving up over 18 points-per-game on average to opposing backs. I don't get it either, they just kind of find a way to suck, I suppose? Start Martin and watch him throw up big yards and numbers in Oakland... although it's hard for me to trust any man with two first names.

WR’s – Start ‘Em!

Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) – Watch this: Indianapolis Colts (4-3) WR Reggie Wayne (54 REC, 757YDS, 2 TD’s) should have an absolutely insane game against the downright horrid secondary of the Miami Dolphins (4-3). The Dolphins are currently giving up 281.0 (27^th) through the air and have little to no superstar in the secondary to stop the superstars we're throwing at them. I’m looking for Reggie to come down with 150+ receiving yards and at least one touchdown on Sunday! Yep, just take last week's write-up, change the opposing team name and everything else basically remains the same. Did you catch it?

Desean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles) – With the surprisingly bad New Orleans Saints (2-5) secondary currently being ranked 30th, giving up an average of 304.6 yards-per-game, it'd be difficult not to start an Eagles receiver... even if they were on IR. Yes, their defense is that bad. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) WR Desean Jackson (34 REC, 524 YDS, 1 TD) hopefully jumps off the inconsistency train and starts becoming the Jackson of old. Start him this week and if he doesn't produce big numbers, you can say you told me so and I'll send you each a dollar for your troubles.*

*Dollar will be sent via post-dated check to the date of my choosing.

Eric Decker (Denver Broncos) – Denver Broncos (4-3) WR Eric Decker (38 REC, 484 YDS, 5 TD's) is a start again this week for me. Although some may argue that there are better match-ups out there, I like what Denver has done, spreading out their throws and finding each and every receiver down-field, scoring points all over. The Broncos will face a decent Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) secondary, but when you have a sheriff like Manning slinging the ball around the field, it doesn't much matter what secondary you throw at him, the points for his receivers will still end up getting there. Start Decker and thank me later for how good looking I am. Oh, and for me telling you to start Decker, I guess.

QB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) – If you are like me and must start Buffalo Bills (3-4) QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (86.1 QB Rating - 1,435 YDS, 9 INT's, 15 TD's) then you must be ready and willing to hate yourself later in the day - again, like me. The Bills are headed south to face a Houston Texans (6-1) team that pretty much wants you to do nothing on the field and makes you live with their decisions. The Bills have the league's 29th-ranked passing offense, throwing for only a mere 198.7 yards-per-game, facing the Texans 5th-ranked passing defense, allowing only 200.0 yards-per-game. What does that mean, you may ask? Nah, you didn't ask... that's far too obvious. Let's all sit back and watch Fitzpatrick (a Harvard graduate) make some of the most obvious and mentally deficient decisions ever. Stupid bye weeks!

Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings) – Now that Minnesota Vikings (5-3) QB Christian Ponder (85.8 QB Rating - 1,743, 7 INT's, 10 TD's) has had plenty of time off to think about just how poorly he played against a terrible Tampa Bay secondary, he is forced to head into Seattle Seahawks (4-4), 12th Man territory where any time there's a passing play called, he may pee a little. If the Seahawks have one thing mastered, it's putting a hit on players... hard ones. They simply don't allow anyone to break free and score, especially at home where only Tom Brady has gained more than 12+ fantasy points at CenturyLink Field. I bet Ponder and backup QB Joe Webb had a stressful game of rock-paper-scissors to see who was starting this one, to which Ponder yelled, "Best two out of three!" as Webb was cheesin' and walking away.

John Skelton (Arizona Cardinals) – Take a warm-climate, dome team like the Arizona Cardinals (4-4) and ship them to the frozen tundra in Wisconsin to face a reeling Green Bay Packers (5-3) team while adding a second-year quarterback like John Skelton (64.5 QB Rating - 746 YDS, 1 TD) and you've got yourself a recipe for disaster. There is no running game in Arizona (31st - 79.0 YPG) and with a back-and-forth quarterback situation, there is definitely no current passing-attack that's going to net the Cards any points (23rd - 210.9 YPG), especially if WR Larry Fitzgerald (45 ATT, 511 YDS, 3 TD's) is still banged up from last week. Sit Skelton... forever.

RB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills) – For exactly the same reasons behind sitting Buffalo Bills' (3-4) starting quarterback is the same reasoning for sitting RB Fred Jackson (53 ATT, 197 YDS, 1 TD) - well, that and the fact that he simply hasn't produced all season. Plain and simple, the Houston Texans (6-1) 3rd-ranked rushing defense only gives up 83.0 yards-per-game on the ground on average, to which I can only see Jackson getting maybe 3 of those 83 yards, if he trips, stumbles forward and the entire Texan defensive unit is too busy yawning. Sit down, sir!

Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) – I hate doing it, but I have to this time. Indianapolis Colts (4-3) RB Donald Brown (74 ATT, 319 YDS, 1 TD) is an absolute sit when facing a Miami Dolphins (4-3) defensive line currently ranked 2nd in the league, allowing an amazing 82.0 yards-per-game on the ground. Brown isn't usually all that dependable when it comes to fantasy points in the first place, now losing carries to RB Vick Ballard (61 ATT, 206 YDS) and trying to garner them against a defense that's only allowed two rushing touchdowns to running backs all season. Sorry, Donnie... it is what it is.

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) – It looks like it's that time again; time to sit Tennessee Titans (3-5) RB Chris Johnson (131 ATT, 595 YDS, 2 TD's) and let everything return to normal for the 2012 NFL season. Johnson is facing the 1st-ranked Chicago Bears (6-1) rushing defense who only allows 77.9 rushing yards-per-game on the ground. Add to the fact that Chicago has only allowed one rushing touchdown and the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs and CJ2K flops today like Y2K did on New Year's Day, 2000. C'mon, I thought that was good!

WR’s – Sit ‘Em!

Kenny Britt (Tennessee Titans) – Forget what you thought you know about the old Tennessee Titans (3-5) and WR Kenny Britt (20 REC, 209 YDS, 1 TD) because all of it is out the window, especially today when the Chicago Bears (6-1) come in to Nashville to absolutely manhandle some Titan offensive players - all-around. Not only are the Bears tops in rushing defense, their secondary has only allowed two receiving touchdowns all season. There is absolutely no way Britt comes away with more than 50-yards receiving, let alone a score here. In all honesty, I don't know what you're doing with the man still as a starter? Trade him off, ASAP!

Brian Hartline (Miami Dolphins) – Not only is Miami Dolphins (4-3) WR Brian Hartline (33 REC, 555 YDS, 1 TD) not at full-capacity, but the home team Indianapolis Colts (4-3) are surprisingly currently ranked 7th overall in passing defense, averaging 213.0 passing yards-per-game to opponents this season. Add to the list of troubles that rookie QB Ryan Tannehill (75.8 QB Rating - 1,472 YDS, 6 INT's, 4 TD's) is also banged up and will get the start only bodes worse for Hartline and even better for the Colts, who have Coach Pagano in attendance to watch them continue their home field success.

Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) – The Arizona Cardinals (4-4) have dropped their last four games and, well, you may as well call it five in-a-row after heading to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (5-3) on a short week. Star WR Larry Fitzgerald (45 REC, 511, 3 TD's) landed awkwardly on his head while diving for a dropped touchdown pass in the end zone Monday night and every play afterward showed more and more signs that Fitzgerald was concussed, yet they kept him in for the remainder of the meaningless last quarters of the game - why, I'll never know? Regardless, Arizona has a terrible offensive strategy altogether and won't be allowed many (if any) points on the board while Fitzgerald will be held to little yardage. It's a scary thought to believe the medical personnel can be just as bad as the Cardinals offense. I'm going to get a second opinion, if you don't mind, Dr. Kevorkian.

2012 NFL Week 8 Pick of the Week: San Francisco 49'ers at Arizona Cardinals

Pricetopher — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 22:44:43 -0000

49'ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)

Pick – Under (39)

Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!

When picking the best spots for my followers, I typically like to stick with sides - giving them reason to understand why one team is superior to the other (taking the given line into play, of course). Tonight, playing the under seems just too obvious not to jump all over.

The San Francisco 49'ers (5-2) have had 10 days rest since their 13-6 win at home against the defensive-minded Seattle Seahawks (4-4); which was a sleeper if points is your forte. The 49'ers have only given up 9 points in their previous three wins - all coming from teams whose offensive productions rivals that of the home team Arizona Cardinals (4-3). Extra rest and a young, inexperienced starter at QB John Skelton (61.5 - QB Rating, 456 YDS, 3 INT's, 1 TD) for Arizona should do nothing but help and better motivate the NFL's 1st-ranked passing defense (173.4 YPG). Skelton was sacked seven times last week in the Cardinals third loss in as many games, while throwing 2 INT's in the process. Fact is, Skelton holds the NFL's worst interception percentage since November 6, throwing 17 INT's in only 349 passes.

In the same breath, one of the only thing the Cardinals have going for them is their defensive production, ranking 4th overall in the league by allowing only 191.3 passing yards-per-game. Niner's QB Alex Smith (93.9 - QB Rating, 1,427 YDS, 5 INT's, 9 TD's) is definitely not a deep-threat passer to give Arizona much to worry about, throwing for more than two touchdowns only once this season at home against a horrendous Buffalo secondary as well as being yet to garner a 100.0+ point QB Rating at all this season.

As long as Arizona can even somewhat slow the 49'ers running game lead by RB Frank Gore (103 ATT, 601 YDS, 4 TD's) tonight, the clock should continue to tick, keeping scoring to a minimum and leaving most of this primetime contest near midfield. Both teams being elite on defense and knowing the habits of one another far too well have this game screaming under. Book it. Bank it. Bang!

Just So Ya' Know:

Under is 4-0-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record
Under is 3-0-1 in 49ers last 4 vs. NFC
49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as an underdog
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a ATS loss

NFL Fantasy Football Week 8: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Come Get Ya' Some!

Pricetopher — Thu, 25 Oct 2012 22:00:29 -0000

Fantasy Football – Week 8

QB’s – Start ‘Em!

Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos) – Denver Broncos (3-3) QB Peyton Manning (105.0 QB Rating – 1,808 YDS, 4 INT’s, 14 TD’s) is about to become Dr. Manning with the surgical precision in which he’s going to dissect the New Orleans Saints (2-4) 30^th-ranked passing defense. Manning has yet to slump below a 300-yard passing game while lofting 11 TD’s and only 1 INT since September 17^th when they visited the Atlanta. Ummm, guys… I don’t think his neck’s hurting all that much anymore. Eff!

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) – Ok, I take the previous "Eff!" back because the hometown Indianapolis Colts (3-3) have what looks to be a bright future in front of us with QB Andrew Luck (72.3 QB Rating – 1,674 YDS, 7 INT’s, 7 TD’s) getting better and stronger every game – well, maybe not his knee, but you know what I mean. Looking to most definitely start this week’s game against the conference opponent Tennessee Titans (3-4) and that doesn’t bode well for Tennessee’s hole-filled, 27th-ranked secondary (281.4 YPG) who has yet to contain any pass-oriented team they’ve faced to under 34 points! Regardless of Indianapolis’ winless road record, this should be a stat-booster and all-around good game, like most of our conference match-ups seem to be. That being said, I think the Colts get their first road win this Sunday… oh, and I’m also going to try to get a picture with Chris Johnson’s grill in my mouth – wish me Luck!

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) – As much as I think he’s been a bust this season, San Diego Chargers (3-3) are in a must-win situation (aren’t they all, really?) and have to have QB Philip Rivers (85.3 – QB Rating, 1,492 YDS, 9 INT’s, 10 TD’s) come out of their bye week ready to roll over the Cleveland Browns (1-5) and their 26^th-ranked secondary (276.9 YPG). I feel as if Rivers will put the colossal meltdown he had at home, allowing Denver to come out from behind a 23-point deficit, behind him and will start slinging the ball as he’s done so well in years prior. Although it’s looking to be in the mid-40’s on Sunday, I don’t see that or anything the Browns secondary has to throw at the Charger offense being of much help. Chargers and Rivers score big while the Browns… well… remain the Browns. Look at those uniforms for God’s sake! BLEGHHH!

RB’s - Start ‘Em!

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) – Take it from the man who told you to start RB Chris Johnson (110 ATT, 496 YDS, 2 TD’s) last week, as much as I hate to admit it, you’ve got to start the Tennessee Titans (3-4) halfback again this week against a suspect Indianapolis Colts (3-3) defensive front. With the Colts rushing defense currently being ranked 26^th in the league, giving up 141.7 yards-per-game on the ground, Johnson could have an absolute field day… again. I know I’m supposed to remain objective, but talk about a call I’m hoping to get completely wrong this week!

Reggie Bush (Miami Dolphins) – With New York Jets (3-4) head coach Rex Ryan looking for an apology more than a win, I see a fire being lit under Miami Dolphins’ (3-3) RB Reggie Bush (98 ATT, 434 YDS, 3 TD’s) this week when they travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey. Currently the Jets are 30^th in opposing rushing yards, giving up 147.7 yards-per-game on the ground, focusing more on the big plays downfield. New York is going to have to step up their defensive line to keep Bush away from breaking free a few times. In all honesty, the Jets have a hard enough time wrapping backs up for tackles in the first place, leaving Bush available to break away when defenders try to knock his head off his shoulders and miss altogether. As my little sis, Jessi used to snidely say, "See yaaaaaaahhhh!"

Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos) – Denver Broncos (3-3) RB Willis McGahee (100 ATT, 432 YDS, 3 TD’s) didn’t have much of an opportunity to put a running game together since his offense was forced to get pass-happy and comeback from a 23-0 halftime deficit in San Diego. But, this isn’t San Diego; it’s the New Orleans Saints (2-4) who are holding strong onto their 30^th and 31^st-ranked passing and rushing defenses. Although I see QB Peyton Manning (105.0 QB Rating – 1,808 YDS, 4 INT’s, 14 TD’s) being the shining star this week for Denver, looking to absolute shred what little of a defensive secondary the Saints do have, McGahee should be a decent option to both check down to and also hand a few draws and counter plays off when available. McGahee needs a solid game this week to keep any value and I see him getting it.

WR’s – Start ‘Em!

Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) – Indianapolis Colts (3-3) WR Reggie Wayne (47 REC, 666 YDS, 2 TD’s) should have an absolutely insane game against the downright horrid secondary of the Tennessee Titans (3-4). The Titans are currently giving up 281.4 (27^th) through the air and have no shutdown secondary player now that Cortland Finnegan chose to head to St. Louis. I’m looking for Reggie to come down with 150+ receiving yards and at least 2 touchdowns on Sunday!

Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh Steelers) – I don’t typically like starting Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) receivers, but then again, they’re not always facing the dead-last Washington Redskins (3-4) passing secondary who is allowing an atrociously high 328.4 (32^ND) passing yards-per-game! What is this, the PAC-12?! Anyway, despite WR Mike Wallace’s (29 REC, 397 YDS, 4 TD’s) shitty haircut (for real, he looks like the Tinman with that cone on his head) and playing the role of the Steelers’ number two wideout to WR Antonio Brown (36 REC, 442 YDS, 1 TD), Wallace has three more touchdowns and gets more looks in the red zone. Start Wallace this week and watch the points tally up.

Eric Decker (Denver Broncos) – Denver Broncos (3-3) star WR Demaryius Thomas should be an absolute, definite, without-a-doubt start this week and right behind him should be WR Eric Decker (34 REC, 441 YDS, 3 TD’s). With the way QB Peyton Manning (105.0 QB Rating – 1,808 YDS, 4 INT’s, 14 TD’s) dices up good passing defenses with precision, imagine the numbers he and all of his wide receivers are going to rack up when the New Orleans Saints (2-4) visit Mile High Stadium this Sunday! Start Decker and hopefully (fingers crossed) he doesn’t allow the 36-yard-line to record another solo tackle.

QB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) – While dropping 3 of their last 4 games, the Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) are coming fresh off a bye week and playing an undefeated Atlanta Falcons (6-0) team who has just squeaked by some of the league’s defensive bottom-feeders (Carolina, Washington and Oakland) in the previous three weeks. Although I think Philadelphia will be more prepared this week than any other, I don’t see QB Michael Vick (77.7 QB Rating – 1,632 YDS, 8 INT’s, 8 TD’s) having a standout game. The Falcons are currently giving up a solid 223.3 yards-per-game through the air with their great deep-field coverage, making Vick rely more on his feet than his arm – which has gotten him and the Eagles in much trouble this season. The crazy part about this game is that I truly see Atlanta getting their first loss on Sunday, but more so with the legs of both Vick and RB LeSean McCoy (111 ATT, 459 YDS, 1 TD) than anything else. Upset alert, people!

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) – QB Cam Newton (79.3 QB Rating – 1,387 YDS, 6 INT’s, 5 TD’s) takes his Carolina Panthers (1-5) to Chicago’s Soldier Field for one of the absolute toughest defenses he’ll face all season in the Chicago Bears (5-1). With their lack of a running game, Carolina must rely on both the legs and arm of Newton – an arm that hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards since week one of the 2012 season. Don’t look for the Bears’ 1^st-ranked rushing defense to make it any easier for Newton to tuck the ball and run when his receivers are blanketed in coverage either. If he decides to, it could be a season-ending mistake with the way Chicago lays the lumber on people, especially QB’s!

Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) – Talk about a dismal and disappointing game for QB Matthew Stafford (78.4 QB Rating – 1,756 YDS, 6 INT’s 5 TD’s) and the Detroit Lions (2-4) in Chicago this past Monday. With the 2^nd overall passing offense in the league (307.0 YPG), one would think Stafford would have more than 5 TD’s on the season; but not when a big chunk of their yards come from previous game’s final drives against soft zone coverage and a Hail Mary prayer that lands in WR Nate Burleson’s (out for season) hands for an overtime gift at Tennessee… oh, and a loss – because they decided to go for it on 4^th and inches instead of tying the game up with a chip-shot field goal. Regardless, don’t expect Stafford and company to bring any sort of high-octane offense when the Seattle Seahawks (4-3) stingy defense comes to town. Hell, this snooze fest could quite possibly end 3-0, final. YAAAAAWN!!!

RB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) – Hey, look who it is… our old friend on the Sit ‘Em portion of the list, RB Steven Jackson (101 ATT, 380 YDS, 1 TD). Fact is, Jackson is facing a New England Patriots (5-3) defense who has allowed only two previous running backs to reach the end zone so far this season… Jackson doesn’t get his second rushing TD of the year this week, especially losing more and more time to rookie RB Daryl Richardson (55 ATT, 282 YDS, 0 TD’s), who seems to be the future of this St. Louis Rams (3-4) franchise. Jackson is a terrible option to start this week in the States, let alone Wembley Stadium in London – if you suck here, you’ll probably suck there, too. Just sayin’.

Shonn Greene (New York Jets) – Shonn Greene (124 ATT, 432 YDS, 5 TD’s) had his breakout game for the New York Jets (3-3) two weeks ago when Indianapolis visited MetLife Stadium… that should about sum it up. Ok, ok, maybe not for the season, but at least for this week’s game when the wall-like defensive line of the Miami Dolphins (3-3) comes to town. Miami’s defensive front has averaged giving up only 78.2 yards-per-game (4^th) thus far throughout the season and I don’t see sub-par back Shonn Greene doing anything to change it. The Dolphins have only given up two rushing touchdowns, the third-fewest rushing yards and ninth-fewest fantasy points to backs this season. Oh, and also another candidate for worst f’ing name spelling in history. Why stop at two "n’s" – I mean, throw a few more on there since you apparently don’t give a…

Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions) – If you happened to be watching, you probably are already aware that a large portion of the Detroit Lions (2-4) loss of momentum last week on Monday Night Football laid heavily on the shoulders of RB Mikel Leshoure (66 ATT, 259 YDS, 1 TD). As Leshoure was handed the ball to punch it in for Detroit’s first score, he coughed up the ball on the 3-yard-line, devastating every Lion in sight. Although his 63 yards on 12 carries looks somewhat appealing, the Lions had faith in neither running back towards the end of the game on 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th down from the 3-yard-line – passing each play and failing to convert. If Leshoure couldn’t convert on Chicago’s defense, they will have one hell of a time doing anything against a Seattle Seahawks (4-3) rushing defense who is currently ranked 6^th overall, giving up only 85.0 yards-per-game. I’ll probably start Leshoure when he tells his mother she has made poor decisions by obviously spelling his name via a game of Boggle. AKA, never.

WR’s – Sit ‘Em!

DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles) – Again, this game all goes back to the aforementioned Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) not being able to do much through the air this week against a selfish Atlanta Falcons (6-0) secondary (QB Sit ‘Em - Michael Vick). Since the first game of the season, WR DeSean Jackson (29 REC, 465 YDS, 1 TD) has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark, although being targeted 53 times, but coming in with only 29 of those being completed passes. If there’s one thing the Falcons excel in, it’s their defensive secondary, allowing only four passing touchdowns all season. Go over there and hang out with K Alex Henery or something, DeSean… it’s not like you’re going to be doing anything on the field that makes a difference.

Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) – Carolina Panthers (1-5) WR Steve Smith (28 REC, 471 YDS, 0 TD’s) always has the ability to come up with big plays each and every game. That being said, he has truly yet to convert, not putting up over 100-yards since week two. Not much should change this week at Soldier Field where they are going up against the Chicago Bears (5-1) and their insanely good defense. Look for CB Charles "Peanut" Tillman (27 TACK, 3 FF, 2 INT’s) to be on Smith like stink on… that’s kind of foul… ok, like white on… well, that can be viewed as racist… look, he will just cover him very well in the secondary. Ughhh! I hope all of you "PC people" out there are happy! (P.S. You ruin everything.)

Brandon Lloyd (New England Patriots) – New England Patriots (4-3) WR Brandon Lloyd (35 REC, 407 YDS, 1 TD) has been almost as much as a disappointment as when I found out that Santa Clause wasn’t real. I remember it vividly, "Go ahead, mom… you can tell me the truth - is Santa real?" My mother took a deep breath and softly said, "No, Christopher. Santa is not real." After I got finished kicking the back of her driver’s seat and screaming at the top of my lungs, "WHY WOULD YOU TELL ME THAT?!?!" I calmed down… and now that I’m 30-years-old, I’m almost completely over it… almost. Anyway, that’s how I feel about Lloyd. Even in last week’s game, Lloyd was targeted a total of 8 times and only came down with 1 reception for 6 yards. And, if there’s one thing the St. Louis Rams (3-4) can do right, it is blanket receivers in tight coverage. Remember what I said about if people suck here, they’d probably suck in London, too? Yeah, it still applies.

2012 NFL Week 7 Pick Of The Week: New York Giants At Washington Redskins

Pricetopher — Sun, 21 Oct 2012 14:26:35 -0000

Giants (4-2) @ Redskins (3-3)

Pick – Giants (-6)

Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!

With much of the public money favoring the Washington Redskins (3-3) to cover the spread in this week's game with the New York Giants (4-2), I don't see this as even being a close call... especially given the way New York dismantled San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at home last week, 26-3.

Washington, lead by rookie sensation QB Robert Griffin, III (100.5 - QB Rating, 1,343 YDS, 2 INT's, 5 TD's), has a solid offense - especially when Griffin can scamper off for big gains when the secondary has locked onto his receiving core. The problem with this is that I feel Griffin makes the decision to keep it himself far too quickly, not giving many of Washington's plays a chance to fully develop. Add to the fact that the Giants pass rush is one of the best in the NFL, and I think they'll have a few coverage surprises and hard licks in store for Griffin and the entire Redskins' offense.

Truth be told, the Redskins are ranked dead-last in passing yards-per-game (328.3) and with the precision of Giants' QB Eli Manning's (94.9 QB Rating - 1,772 YDS, 5 INT's, 11 TD's) passing attack, who will be getting key receiver Hakeem Nicks (17 REC, 281 YDS, 1 TD) back from injury today, look for Manning and company's numbers to soar. That's not even taking into account Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw (92 ATT, 449 YDS, 3 TD's) - although he did not practice Friday and is questionable for Sunday's game; even if New York has to rely on their backup RB Andre Brown (38 ATT, 198 YDS, 3 TD's), he has already proven this season that he is more than capable of carrying the load.

I'm looking for another break-out game by New York, leading to a double-digit win thanks to the extremely suspect secondary Washington has shown throughout the beginning of the season thus far. I love it... go big!

Just So Ya' Know:

Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in last four games
Redskins QB Robert Griffin, III has yet to play NFC East opponent
Redskins are 3-1 ATS as underdog

NFL Fantasy Football Week 7: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - I've Got Surprises

Pricetopher — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 21:04:25 -0000

Fantasy Football – Week 7

Not only does Stampede Blue's Christopher Price know all there is to know about sports betting and how to make the City of Las Vegas, NV pay his bills, he also can give you the valuable inside scoop on fantasy football!

QB’s – Start ‘Em!

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) – It finally looks as if the back-up that I’ve drafted in half of my leagues may pay off… if only for a week. Buffalo Bills (3-2) starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (81.5 QB Rating – 1,210 YDS, 8 INT’s, 12 TD’s) is a walking conundrum – the man can put up insane points one week and throw 1,604 interceptions with -43 yards passing in the next. Ok, ok… that’s a little much, but you get the point. This week, Fitzpatrick is facing a 29^th-ranked Tennessee Titans (2-4) team who is giving up 292.3 passing yards per game throughout the air. Don’t question me, just start ‘em!

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) – Hopefully both the Indianapolis Colts (2-3) and QB Andrew Luck (72.0 QB Rating – 1,488 YDS, 7 INT’s, 7 TD’s) can fix absolutely everything from last week’s demoralizing loss to the New York Jets (3-3) when the lowly Cleveland Browns (1-5) visit Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday. Cleveland is fighting for last place in almost every category imaginable, giving up 294.2 passing yards per game (30^th) while allowing an average of 27 PPG in the process. When the Colts put up 23+ points in a game, they don’t lose, especially at home. Sorry, that was the sports bettor in me coming out again. (Hint, hint!)

Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders) – The Oakland Raiders (1-4) have gotten off to a terrible start, while not always playing terrible football. In all but two games, Oakland finds a way to move the ball and keep it close, especially in the Georgia Dome last week where they took the undefeated Atlanta Falcons (6-0) down to the wire, losing on a 55-yarder at the end of regulation. Much of this is due to QB Carson Palmer (88.7 QB Rating – 1,434 YDS, 3 INT’s, 6 TD’s) having success through the air, which will likely continue this week against the 1-4 (which should be 0-5, but we won’t discuss "that play" against the Colts) Jacksonville Jaguars. Palmer and the Raiders have a solid team with a good game plan, they simply just cannot convert when it counts – thus, why I am quick to jump on kicker Sebastian Janikowski (7/7 PAT, 10/10 FG, 37 PTS) in the early-late rounds of my fantasy football drafts year after year. I’d swear, if you gave Janikowski some hair and a shot of Jameson, he’d be the spitting image of a bartender Gareth McDaid at The Gaslight Pub in Sunnyside Queens – just a man out there, doing his job, not giving a damn about a thing in the world!

RB’s - Start ‘Em!

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) – DO NOT ADJUST YOUR MONITOR – YOU ARE READING THIS PROPERLY!!! That’s right, people… for anyone else who thought they were duping others by pawning Tennessee Titans (2-4) RB Chris Johnson (92 ATT, 301 YDS, 0 TD’s) off, it’s time that the self-anointed "CJ2K" gets back to doing what he does best in the next two weeks. The Titans are traveling to Ralph Wilson Stadium this Sunday to face a terrible Buffalo Bills (3-2) defensive line that could give up a touchdown scamper to Betty White if she were willing to suit up. The Bills, currently ranked 32^nd in the league, giving up 173.5 rushing yards-per-game need to seriously reconsider changing things up on the defensive line – it’s simply not working and costing them field position that Fitzpatrick and company just hasn’t seemed to be able to get back of late. Just like most of you, I’m sure, my cousin Vinny (not the movie, shut up) thought he was slick by releasing Johnson as soon as he could. But, for those of you who held strong and/or just received your gift for this week, it’s time to hear him and all of the others bitch the Bills defensive line up and down all Sunday long!

Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Just behind the last-ranked rushing defense of Buffalo is the New Orleans Saints (1-4) who give up an average of 172.8 yards-per-game over their last five. But, not even a bye week should be able to stop a decent rushing attack that Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ (2-3) RB Doug Martin (84 ATT, 323 YDS, 1 TD) looks to improve upon. The Bucs typically fare well at home and Martin should be a solid point on the ground, opening the air-attack up for the offense.

Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) – Everyone knows that in order to have a solid chance at beating the New England Patriots (3-3), they must stop the quick slants and overall passing offense that QB Tom Brady (97.2 QB Rating – 1,845 YDS, 3 INT’s, 10 TD’s) has all but perfected over the years. For some reason, RB Stevan Ridley (118 ATT, 524 YDS, 4 TD’s) doesn’t get brought up near as much as he should. The second year back from LSU has been a shining star on the Patriots offense, leading them to an average of 152.3 rushing yards-per-game (4^th) – a number that only looks to grow larger against a suspect New York Jets (3-3) rush defense, currently ranked 28^th in the league, allowing 150.5 yards-per-game on the ground throughout their first six games.

WR’s – Start ‘Em!

Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants) – The top starter of the week overall is New York Giants (4-2) and their lethal quarterback, Eli Manning (QB Rating - 94.9, 1,772 YDS, 5 INT’s, 11 TD’s). On the opposing end of Manning is up against the absolute worst passing secondary in the league, Washington Redskins (3-3), who gives up 328.3 passing yards-per-game on average, with newly healthy and dominant WR Hakeem Nicks (17 REC, 281 YDS, 1 TD) to put a smile on Manning’s face with at least 10 targets this week, leading to what I can only assume to be massive fantasy points!

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders) – Oakland Raiders (1-5) WR Denarius Moore (17 REC, 287 YDS, 2 TD’s) impressed me last week in Atlanta where he totaled 104 yards receiving and a touchdown against an extremely solid secondary. This week could be a breakout week for Moore, facing a weak Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) defense that will most certainly get destroyed in Oakland… I promise.

Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) – For whatever reason, the Indianapolis Colts (2-3) decided WR Reggie Wayne (41 REC, 593 YDS, 2 TD’s) should be thrown into the game plan mid-way through the 4^th quarter of last week’s massacre. I see this week’s game against the 30^th-ranked passing defense of the Cleveland Browns (1-5), who give up close to 300 yards-per-game in the air to be the polar opposite. Look for Wayne to be targeted much throughout this one, maybe for 150+ yards and a few TD’s!

QB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) – Someway, somehow the Baltimore Ravens (5-1) find a way to squeak out games. I don’t quite see it happening this week when they travel to Reliant Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (5-1), who are coming off of their first loss of the season. Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco (92.0 QB Rating – 1,690 YDS, 4 INT’s, 8 TD’s) has done a decent job at finding open receivers and avoiding too much pressure, but when facing dominant defenses, which they have yet to all season, it’s looking like a different outcome is to be expected. The Texans are ranked 7^th in both rushing and passing defense, allowing just over 300 total yards of offense per game to opponents. Expect Houston to be a little pissed… and to show it!

Alex Smith (San Francisco 49’ers) – Although QB Alex Smith (96.6 QB Rating – 1,287 YDS, 4 INT’s, 8 TD’s) gets the job done, there is truly nothing too impressive about his season thus far. Besides the fact that the San Francisco 49’ers (4-2) have come out extremely strong on defense, it’s their ground-attack that most teams focus upon. Smith has only surpassed the 300-yard mark in passing once this season, against Buffalo’s sketchy secondary, and barely (303 YDS). When dropping back against decent coverage, Smith records very low numbers and looks to get timid in the pocket. Last week, Smith had dismal numbers against a solid Giants defense (QB Rating - 24.8, 19/30, 200 YDS, 3 INT’s, 0 TD’s), showing just how much the Niners rely on the ground-and-pound game, whether via the I-Formation or Wildcat. I hate to burst your bubble, but that’s precisely the Seattle Seahawks’ (4-2) forte, coming hard with the leagues number two rushing defense. Smith is currently ranked 22^nd overall amongst quarterbacks… behind Romo… even behind Bradford. Trust me, it’s going to get dirty in Cali tonight!

Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings) – Although Minnesota Vikings (4-2) QB Christian Ponder (QB Rating – 92.4, 1,434 YDS, 4 INT’s, 8 TD’s) was on my starter’s list last week, I’m going to have to sit him this week when the defensive-minded Arizona Cardinals (4-2) come to Mall of America Field. Wait… seriously? Mall of America Field? Christ, is all of Minnesota a joke now? Ughhh! Anyway, the one thing Arizona has going for them is their defense, because without that, I feel they’re a terrible team who makes terrible decisions and has an ever more terrible-er (yep, that just happened) quarterback. Regardless, Arizona is 9^th overall in passing yards-per-game (216.0 YPG) for a reason. Their ability to shut down wide receivers and allow coverage sacks makes for Ponder riding the pine in my league.

RB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) – It seems as if week after week I’m preaching to sit St. Louis Rams (3-2) RB Steven Jackson (89 ATT, 323 YDS, 0 TD’s)… and week after week it looks like it holds up to be a good call. Frankly, the Rams are looking to the future and Jackson’s 76-yard game against Arizona a few weeks back was the star back’s shining point on the season. I don’t see anything changing in the near future. Hell, sell both Jackson and his jersey before the Rams release him from his contract and his apparel goes 70% off on the Dick’s clearance rack.

Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions) – Detroit Lions’ (2-3) back-up RB Mikel Leshoure (54 ATT, 196 YDS, 1 TD) has an enormous task heading into Monday night’s game against the top-ranked Chicago Bears (4-1) rushing defense who allows a mere 65.8 rushing yards-per-game. A cold Monday night on primetime television at Soldier Field isn’t the most optimum of circumstances for any running back, let alone a non-starter, to a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in the league. Oh, and he spells his name like a 2^nd grader eating paste and writing with crayons. I’m surprised the "k" isn’t all backwards and cute like.

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49’ers) – I understand to many that sitting San Francisco 49’ers (4-2) RB Frank Gore (87 ATT, 470 YDS, 4 TD’s) may be a little hard to believe, but let me run the numbers by you just for one second – there have only been two times this season that San Francisco has faced good rushing defenses, Vikings (24-13) and Giants (26-3), leading to the team’s only losses of the season. In both games, Gore rushed for a combined 20 ATT, 99 YDS, O TD’s with a turnover. Now add the visiting Seattle Seahawks (4-2) rushing defense that allows only 70 yards-per-game on the ground (2^nd) on a short week for Gore and the San Francisco offense that more than struggled last week and it looks like a recipe for disaster. Truth is, the Seahawks have only allowed two touchdowns and the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the league. Yeah, now that I’ve made a valid point, you’re not talking so much smack, are ya’?

WR’s – Sit ‘Em!

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) – When it comes to fantasy points, the Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) are ranked 6^th in points allowed to opposing receivers. Combine that with the fact that Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) have had a lackluster offense at best, WR Antonio Brown (29 REC, 346 YDS, 1 TD) being their top producing wideout. The Steelers’ passing numbers aren’t terrible, but when acknowledging the fact that QB Ben Roethlisberger (QB Rating - 99.9, 1,487 YDS, 2 INT’s, 10 TD’s) has yet to throw for more than one score against the Bengals since 2008, it’s a safe call. Oh, and the Steelers lost to the Tennessee Titans (2-4) last week… let’s not forget about that gem. Nice work, Tin Curtain.

Brandon Lloyd (New England Patriots) – I typically think New York Jets (3-3) CB Antonio Cromartie (17 TACK, 3 INT’s) is a liability more than he is helpful in the secondary. That being said, I’ve been beyond impressed with his coverage of late and feel it’s only going to continue when the Jets head to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots (3-3). Patriots’ WR Brandon Lloyd (34 REC, 401 YDS, 1 TD) has shown skills, but facing a New York team in a must-win scenario, who has also surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, don’t expect Lloyd to do much Sunday. It’s going to be dump-off passes and screens all game long.

Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49’ers) – I am not making an exception for San Francisco 49’ers (4-2) WR Michael Crabtree (30 REC, 337 YDS, 1 TD) when it comes to just how good the Seattle Seahawks (4-2) can be – they are a shut-down defense… period. Crabtree usually gets targeted 5-7 times per game, putting up below average numbers for the team’s supposed "top receiver" – topping the 100-yard mark just once this season. Look for Crabtree to be blanketed by Seahawks’ defenders, who have only given up three touchdown passes this season. Crabtree will be attempting to get a breath in, let alone a reception tonight.

2012 NFL Week 7 Rock Solid Pick: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Pricetopher — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 21:23:19 -0000

Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)

Pick – Seahawks (+9)

Good Call: Three Stars (Out of Five)

With both teams having short weeks, Seattle coming off a 24-23 win against New England and the 49'ers getting annihilated by the Giants at home, I have to favor the defenses in this game. And when favoring defenses, it's hard to go any other way but Seattle with their stifling defensive play. If you're a reader of my fantasy football "Start 'Em, Sit 'Em!" report, get ready for some redundancy - because it is what it is.

No matter what side is being taken, all bettors must agree that San Francisco relies heavily upon their ground attack, led by RB Frank Gore (87 ATT, 470 YDS, 4 TD's). Truth is, there have only been two times this season that San Francisco has faced good rushing defenses, Vikings (24-13) and Giants (26-3), leading to the team’s only losses of the season. In both games, Gore rushed for a combined 20 ATT, 99 YDS, O TD’s with a turnover. Now add the visiting Seattle Seahawks (4-2) rushing defense that allows only 70 yards-per-game on the ground (2^nd) on a short week for Gore and the San Francisco offense that more than struggled last week and it looks like a recipe for disaster.

With Seattle only allowing two touchdowns to opposing running backs in the league, we've got to now take a look at the quarterback situation. Granted, the Seahawks are near last in the league with a mere 169.7 passing yards per-game, but QB Russell Wilson (85.6 QB Rating - 1,108 YDS, 6 INT's, 8 TD's) is looking like he's much more comfortable in the past few weeks. The last thing anyone needs is for Seattle's passing attack to become solid, because then they turn into absolute juggernauts... no matter home, away or on the moon!

Although 49'ers QB Alex Smith (96.6 QB Rating – 1,287 YDS, 4 INT’s, 8 TD’s) gets the job done, there is truly nothing too impressive about his season thus far. Besides the fact that the San Francisco has come out extremely strong on defense, it’s their ground-attack that most teams focus upon. Smith has only surpassed the 300-yard mark in passing once this season, against Buffalo’s sketchy secondary, and barely (303 YDS). When dropping back against decent coverage, Smith records very low numbers and looks to get timid in the pocket. Last week, Smith had dismal numbers against a solid Giants defense (QB Rating - 24.8, 19/30, 200 YDS, 3 INT’s, 0 TD’s), showing just how much the Niners rely on the ground-and-pound game, whether via the I-Formation or Wildcat. I hate to burst your bubble, but that’s precisely the Seahawks' forte - coming hard with the leagues number two rushing defense. Smith is currently ranked 22^nd overall amongst quarterbacks… behind Romo… even behind Bradford.

No matter the reasons I hear behind bettors taking San Francisco, I love this match-up and truly cannot believe Vegas is giving up 9-points! If you enjoy money, take Seattle... and then take your deposit to the bank, people!

Just So Ya’ Know:

Both teams are 4-2 ATS
Seahawks are 6-0 ATS when underdogs between 3.5 - 10 points
Home team is 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings

NFL Fantasy Football Week 6 "Start 'Em, Sit 'Em!" - The Sleeper Edition

Pricetopher — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 23:51:54 -0000

Fantasy Football - Week 6

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Sleeper Edition!

Have you ever looked at an NFL Fantasy Football report and wondered if some of the players mentioned were even in the league? Well, you're about to in this week's Sleeper Edition!

QB's - Start ‘Em!

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) - Even if you haven't figured it out by now, chances are Indianapolis Colts (2-2) sensational rookie QB Andrew Luck (77.1 QB Rating - 1,208 YDS, 5 INT's, 7 TD's) has. Aside from being a phenomenal quarterback, he's an intellectual and apparently one hell of an athlete, as well! The Colts are heading into New York Jets (2-3) territory on a short week to face Sanchow or Techez or whomever they decide to throw under center this week. And although the Jets secondary (6^th-ranked, 199.8 YPG) looked decent against the Houston Texans (5-0) passing attack last week, their numbers will drop slowly with the loss of featured CB Darrelle Revis missing the remainder of the season. Let's be real, CB Antonio Cromartie is only good for 1 solid game every 3 or 4 outings - he used that up last week. With Luck's confidence, game management, attention to detail, overall athleticism and maturity, it has already made him a starter in many leagues... as well as in our hearts. Awwwww!

Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings) - Lopsided match-up time! No one knows just quite how the Minnesota Vikings began the season 4-1 - and I feel everyone is just as confused as to how their sole loss is to the Indianapolis Colts (2-2) after they beat a powerhouse San Francisco 49'ers (4-1) quite handily. You've got to give QB Christian Ponder (95.5 WB Rating - 1,082 YDS, 2 INT's, 6 TD's) a lot of the credit for such a tremendous start to a team who was written off in the preseason. I love this game and look for Ponder, together with some of Minnesota's offensive studs, to have a big, big day against a Washington Redskins (2-3) 31^st-ranked passing defense who would have trouble stopping a 3^rd and long against The Chef's Academy.

Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals) -I don't think anyone knows just how badly this call hurts me to make, because I truly, with all of my heart (what little of it that's there) don't want to say it, but I will... I am predicting Arizona Cardinals' (4-1) QB Kevin Kolb (89.7 QB Rating - 1,041 YDS, 2 INT's, 7 TD's) to come up big this week. Now that my insides hurt and I'm done peering over my shoulder, hoping no one actually saw me type that, I'll give you my reasoning, albeit brief - Buffalo Bills (2-3). The Bills have given up 1,388 passing yards in 5 games. You may be thinking, "Well, 277.6 passing YPG isn't the worst!" You may be right, until focusing on whom they've played this season: Jets, Chiefs, Browns, Patriots and 49'ers. Yeah, there's ONE solid passing offense listed... ONE! Take that into consideration when Kolb hooks up, tossing a few passing TD's in this one. I mean, who else are the Cardinals to rely on, 3^rd string RB LaRod Stephens-Howling (12 ATT, 1 YD, 1 TD)?! Well, I guess he does still have more touchdowns than Titans RB Chris Johnson. ZING!

RB's - Start ‘Em!

Vick Ballard (Indianapolis Colts) - Indianapolis Colts (2-2) RB Vick Ballard (21 ATT, 42 YDS, 0 TD's) gets the start this weekend with an injured RB Donald Brown (60 ATT, 239 YDS, 1 TD) expected to miss only 2-3 weeks after having knee surgery - is he bionic? Minor or not, that's insanity, I say! Anyway, the New York Jets (2-3) are absolutely pathetic when it comes to stopping the run (31^st- 172.4 YPG), which is the reason the Houston Texans (5-0) should've dismantled them, yet deciding (for whatever reason) to go to the air more. Brown is a good flex position and I see him having a good game being a breakout chance for himself against the worst of the worst. Make it happen, Vicky!

BenJarvis Green-Ellis (Cincinnati Bengals) - Although Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis (91 ATT, 300, 2 TD's) hasn't done as well as many had hoped up to this point in the season, the Bengals are going to need a strong outing from Green-Ellis to counter the Cleveland Browns (0-5) RB Trent Richardson (81 ATT, 303 YDS, 4 TD's) - who would be my top starter of the week, if this weren't the Sleeper Edition, of course. In all honesty, I see the Browns possibly pulling off the upset. Say whaaaaat?!

WR's - Start ‘Em!

T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) - This may as well be "Colts Edition" rather than "Sleeper Edition!" Ask anyone who knows me, I've been on Indianapolis Colts (2-2) WR's T.Y. Hilton's (8 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD) bandwagon since he was unknowingly paying my bills at Florida International University, blazing streak-routes down the field. Before the first snap of every play I say aloud, "Play-action to Hilton down the sideline... do it!" Although it has yet to come to fruition, I am a fan of his athleticism and think he could do big things against a suspect New York Jets (2-3) secondary this weekend. Get ‘em, killer!

Nate Burleson (Detroit Lions) - Detroit Lions' (1-3) WR Nate Burleson (22 REC, 200 YDS, 1 TD) will be expected to come up big against a Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) defense who will likely bring safety help over to double-team premier WR Calvin Johnson (29 REC, 423 YDS, 1 TD), who didn't produce much offense last week at home. The pass-first mentality should definitely help both the Lions and Burleson put points on the board. Hell, they better start doing something. Have you seen how pissed the people on "Hardcore Pawn" get? As the lovely Sweet Brown and my dear friend Cess and her theatrical crew would say, "Ain't nobody got time fo' that!"

For those unfamiliar folks, allow me to introduce Sweet Brown - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udS-OcNtSWo

Andre Roberts (Arizona Cardinals) - Seriously, Arizona Cardinals' (4-1) WR Andre Roberts (20 REC, 268 YDS, 4 TD's) is a real person, guys! Granted, he doesn't get much recognition due to that other receiver on the field... Lenny... ummm, Larry Fitsimmons? I dunno, anyway... doesn't matter. Fact is, Arizona is finally back at home and looking to do some damage on one of the league's bottom-dwellers in passing defense (24^th - 277.6 YPG), Buffalo Bills (2-3) who have been absolutely atrocious since their 2-1 start. Focusing on Arizona's "other receiver", look for Roberts to have a decent outing Sunday.

QB's - Sit ‘Em!

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) - Again, I want to like Tony Romo (78.5 QB Rating - 1,148 YDS, 8 INT's, 5 TD's) and I fully understand that some of his picks have been right in the hands of his receivers. However, at what point do you start learning that it's a yearly pattern? Either the man has the worst luck in history or he's consistently inconsistent, at best. Even though the Baltimore Ravens' (4-1) defense isn't what it once was, I still look for them to swallow the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) rushing game up whole while FS Ed Reed (21 TACK, 2 INT's) does work on the receiving core. We are talking about a guy who's remembered for sitting on the field, legs outstretched, grasping his facemask with his head down. I mean, c'mon!

Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) - Many, myself included, may feel I'm stretching on this one considering the last dual-threat quarterback the Detroit Lions (1-3) faced was rookie QB Jake Locker (90.2 QB Rating - 781 YDS, 2 INT's, 4 TD's), who posted 413 total yards in Tennessee Titans' 44-41 OT win a few weeks back. However, I feel as if Philadelphia Eagles' (3-2) QB Michael Vick (77.8 QB Rating - 1,321 YDS, 6 INT, 6 TD's) is too much of a risk - both on the field and on your fantasy roster. Again, if you have a terrible back-up, start Vick, but trust me when I say that I think there are far better options out there for this week... even on the waiver wire!

Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders) - It seems to be that against even mildly decent defenses, Oakland Raiders (1-3) QB Carson Palmer (86.0 QB Rating - 1,081 YDS, 2 INT's, 5 TD's) has little to no success. I definitely don't see that changing when Oakland flies cross-country to attempt to topple the undefeated Atlanta Falcons (5-0) - where they're just that much better at home. The Falcons are currently 7^th in the league in opposing passing yards (203.0 YPG) and have CB Thoma DeCoud's 22 tackles and 4 interceptions leading the way to help thank for that. Look for Carson to be, well... Carson.

RB's - Sit ‘Em!

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) - Simply put, I think the St. Louis Rams (3-2) have completely given up on RB Steven Jackson (77 ATT, 271 YDS, 0 TD's) ever returning to his former self... for them at least. Jackson's 76-yard performance last Thursday was a season high in rushing for the former sure-start, week after week. Now that Jackson's been given the option to void his contract following the 2012 season, it's all but written that his tenure with the Rams organization is coming to an end, apparently right along with his confidence in running the ball, for Abilene Christian University prospect RB Daryl Richardson (36 ATT, 170 YDS, 0 TD's). Add that with the fact that they're facing the NFL's leader in rush defense (1^ST - 61.4 YPG) and you've just made a recipe for disaster for the two aforementioned backs.

Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants) - New York Giants (3-2) RB Ahmad Bradshaw (65 ATT, 333 YDS, 2 TD's) went absolutely ape shit on the suspect Cleveland Browns (0-5) - showing that at least one home team could do something productive at MetLife Stadium last week. Although Bradshaw may be showing signs that he's back to his old self, he's got a tall task ahead of himself when traveling to San Francisco 49'ers (4-1) territory to prove his point. The 49'ers hold the NFL's 7^th-ranked rushing defense, allowing only 81.4 YPG - giving up only 89-yards rushing from the Buffalo Bills (2-3) last week as well as an embarrassing 45-yards rushing game from the New York Jets (2-3) the week before. Look for the Giants to do what they've done best and rely on the arm of QB Eli Manning (96.0 QB Rating - 1,579 YDS, 5 INT's, 10 TD's) and their 3^rd-ranked passing offense (309 YPG) to keep this game close.

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) -At this point in the season, do I even have to continue to put Tennessee Titans (1-4) RB Chris Johnson (73 ATT, 210 YDS, 0 TD's) on the bench?! On second thought - TRADE HIM TWO WEEKS AGO! I'll give you a minute to read those impressive yearly stats again... did you retain it all? Good. Now that you fully understand what I'm saying, they're now going up against a Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) team who is in desperate need of a dominant win, no matter whom it's over. I'll tell you what, just pretend Chris Johnson doesn't exist anymore, for the remainder of the season... hell, defenses already do.

WR's - Sit ‘Em!

Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - Talk about your hot and cold players, WR Vincent Jackson (16 REC, 304 YDS, 2 TD's) definitely wreaks of inconsistency. I'm not quite sure if it's necessarily Jackson who is on-again, off-again or if QB Josh Freeman (75.3 QB Rating - 790 YDS, 4 INT's, 5 TD's) remains the culprit? Regardless, I don't like the match-up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) have this week, especially given that the visiting Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) have surrendered fewer than 14 fantasy points in 3 of its last 4 games.
Brandon Lloyd (New England Patriots) - When trying to pass on the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) secondary (5^th - 192.0 YPG), it would seem as if they literally have a 12^th man on the field. Trust me when I say, they would have nowhere near a winning record if they relied solely on their offense (31^st Passing YPG - 147.0). This Sunday's game where they host the reeling New England Patriots (3-2) looks to be no different. Look for Seattle's shut-down corners to assure lockup defense on WR's like Brandon Lloyd (28 REC, 321 YDS, 1 TD) down-field so focus can hone in on the Gronkowski, Woodhead and Welker (I told you he'd get that elusive TD reception last week) three-headed monster. I don't expect much from Lloyd this week, if anything - although he is one photogenic son of a...

The most photogenic athlete in the world - http://www.fightingillini.com/blog/football/illini-in-the-nfl/

Andre Johnson (Houston Texans) All too much fantasy owners put more in name value than they do in production value. Currently ranked 30^th overall, Houston Texans' (5-0) WR Andre Johnson (17 REC, 283 YDS, 2 TD's) is simply not being targeted much at all anymore. Last week I would've said to keep him around, but then after facing the Revis-less New York Jets (2-3) and still not producing, I'd say it's probably time to start looking at other options or maybe even trading him (GASP!) while his "value" is still there. Talk about a big name that can swiftly kick me in the ass on any given Sunday - Andre Johnson is definitely one of those. Going up against a fairly decent Green Bay Packers (2-3) secondary poses a bit of a challenge, however I feel that the even greater challenge is Green Bay attempting to get out of Houston with a .500 record.

NFL Fantasy Football Week 5: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Trust Me On This, People!

Pricetopher — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 21:13:46 -0000

Look, if you have Houston’s Arian Foster or Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, start the holy hell out of ‘em! However, instead of stating the obvious, let’s focus on the hidden gems of week 5 in the NFL!

QB's - Start 'Em!

Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos) – The New England Patriots (2-2) secondary has given up 73.3 fantasy points while surrendering 4 TD’s over just the last two weeks. That alone is reason enough to believe Denver Broncos (2-2) QB Peyton Manning (96.9 QB Rating – 1,162 YDS, 8 TD’s, 3 INT’s) will exploit each and every hole in their defense. Manning understands Foxboro, Belichick, Brady and defenses – especially defenses with gaping holes to exploit. Look for big numbers from Manning this Sunday.
Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) – Another week, another start if you’ve got Atlanta Falcons (4-0) starting QB Matt Ryan (112.1 QB Rating – 1,162 YDS, 11 TD’s, 2 INT’s). Ryan will look to have further success heaving the ball downfield on a Washington Redskins (2-2) defensive secondary that is giving up an atrocious 326.3 passing yards per game (31^st), has allowed 10 touchdown passes and is just barely ahead of a Tampa Bay passing defense (32^nd - 345.3 YPG) who RGIII and company just squeaked a last-second win over a week prior. *NOTE: The only scary thing to pay close attention to is the conditions – it’s shaping up to be a wet, rainy day in the mid-50’s by Sunday’s kickoff… but that’s not enough to stop "Matty Ice", right?
Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) – Although it’s been a rough, slow start for the San Diego Chargers (3-1) QB Philip Rivers (91.9 QB Rating - 897 YDS, 2 INT’s, 6 TD’s), you wouldn’t know it by their record. Truth is, Rivers has only surpassed the 250-yard mark once this season, even with one of the easier schedules I’ve seen. The rich will get richer; facing a winless New Orleans Saints (0-4) team with a 24^th-ranked (276.5 YPG) passing defense. I feel like the elusive Rivers breakout game is coming in just a few days!

RB's - Start 'Em!

Jackie Battle (San Diego Chargers) – Getting the nod this week over starter RB Ryan Mathews may be confusing for some, but for ex-Chiefs RB Jackie Battle (32 ATT, 163 YDS, 3 RUSH TD’s, 1 REC TD), he has come into his first season in San Diego with a vengeance. With Mathews battling injuries and simply coming up short, in all reality, Battle has shown he’s worth the start – especially against a New Orleans Saints (0-4) rushing defense that ranks dead last in the league (32^nd – 186.8 YPG).
Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins) – Many may think the Washington Redskins (2-2) are ranked 2^nd in overall rushing yards (171.0 YPG) due to rookie QB Robert Griffin, III’s legs – while it’s definitely helped, Washington’s other rookie, RB Alfred "The Broker" Morris (82 ATT, 376 YDS, 4 TD’s), nicknamed for both breaking tackles and having a name that sounds like an online brokerage firm (again, copyright pending), is as much to thank for the success of the ‘Skins ground-attack. If there’s anywhere the Atlanta Falcons (4-0) struggle, it’s definitely in stopping the run (29^th – 146.3 YPG) and if you’ve watched the way Morris tears through a defensive line, never seeming to go down, I see no help coming to help Atlanta’s numbers this Sunday. Watch for Morris to toss it up, knock it out of the park and watch it fly a few times this week.
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49’ers) – Coming off a huge shut-out win against the New York Jets (2-2) at MetLife Stadium, the San Francisco 49’ers (3-1) return home to completely dismantle the Buffalo Bills (2-2) dreadful rushing defense (28^th – 137.0 YPG) with RB Frank Gore (66 ATT, 326 YDS, 3 TD’s) leading the charge. If New England’s duo of Ridley and Bolden can combine for 242-yards and 3 TD’s on the ground, I’m sure Gore and company can have their way with them, as well. Don’t allow the Wildcat look with 49’ers backup QB Colin Kaepernick scare you away, Gore will get his points.

WR's - Start 'Em!

Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) – I understand Atlanta Falcons (4-0) WR Julio Jones (16 REC, 219, 3 TD’s) is usually viewed as a top-tier receiver, but if you recall, he had a poor showing last week against the Carolina Panthers (1-3) and has been inconsistent with his fantasy numbers (Kansas City: 22 PTS, Denver: 1 PT, San Diego: 12 PTS and Carolina: 3 PTS) overall. This week he is facing a Washington Redskins (2-2) team who is terrible in secondary coverage (31^st – 326.3 YPG). Look for Jones to put up double-digit numbers and probably a TD or two against Washington’s suspect defense.
Wes Welker (New England Patriots) - For the second straight week, I’m calling for New England Patriots (2-2) WR Wes Welker (25 REC, 380 YDS, 0 TD’s) to have another big game - too bad he just can’t seem to find the endzone yet this year. With the decent defensive backfield the Denver Broncos (2-2) have (13^th – 220.5 YPG), it would seem as if the Pats are going to have to rely on the short, across-the-middle routes that Welker has simply perfected. I’m sure they’re ok with this. He’ll get a score this week, I promise.
Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) - For the same reasoning behind me starting Manning is the same for why I think this could be one of WR Demaryius Thomas’ (21 REC, 325 YDS, 2 TD’s) biggest weeks yet. Start ‘em, sit back and enjoy the show along with the numbers he’s bound to throw up!

QB's - Sit 'Em!

Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals) - I cannot stress enough how overrated I think of both the Arizona Cardinals (4-0) thus far undefeated season and the complete and utter lackluster performances QB Kevin Kolb (97.6 QB Rating – 752 YDS, 7 TD’s, 2 INT’s) has given throughout the beginning of the season. Facing a solid St. Louis Rams (2-2) secondary, I see Kolb bowing out of this game early once the Rams stop what joke Arizona has for a running game, followed by tight downfield coverage by the secondary. Arizona's offensive line gave up 8 sacks to Miami last week and I'm sure the Rams will be ready to follow suit, bringing both the heat and pain... and lot of it. I mean, hell... it's not like Kolb's athletic enough to take off running with the damn ball!
Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs) – Once your job becomes up for grabs to QB Brady Quinn, it’s time to reevaluate some things. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) QB Matt Cassel (70.4 QB Rating – 1,058 YDS, 5 TD’s, 1 INT) may have had a decent start to the season, but that’s all since ended. And although this isn’t the typical Baltimore Ravens (3-1) defense people are used to seeing, especially on the passing side of things (29^th – 295.8 YPG), they’re still solid enough to shut Matt Cassel down at Arrowhead. Sad but true – I’d still take Cassel over Kolb. #TrustMeHeSucks
Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins) – It looks like it’s reality check time for Washington Redskins (2-2) rookie QB Robert Griffin, III (QB Rating - 103.2, 1,070 YDS, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) this Sunday at FedEx Field in Landover, MD. Not to take anything away from RGIII, because he’s a brilliant athlete who racks fantasy points up like a madman, but this is the first real test he’ll have against an extremely solid passing secondary. The Atlanta Falcons (4-0) have the 8^th-ranked defensive unit, giving up only 207 yards per game through the air; it’s their 29^th-ranked rushing defense (146.3 YPG) that allows athletes like Griffin to keep things close. Although he may be able to rely on his legs and athleticism, I see RGIII looking as sloppy as the rainy forecast when it comes to throwing the ball. This being Griffin’s first test in lower, rainy temperatures, we’ll see just how prepared he is coming into Sunday’s match-up. *NOTE: The last game RGIII played in mid-50’s temperatures was when he and his alma-mater Baylor Bears were shutout in the 2^nd half of a 32-20 loss in Lincoln, Nebraska. Griffin, III went 9-20 passing for 134 YDS and had 121 rushing YDS and 1 TD… on October 25, 2008! Where do I even find this sh*t?!

RB's - Sit 'Em!

DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers) - My general rule of thumb is to sit any running back on the Carolina Panthers (1-3) due to the fact that anytime QB Cam Newton is within striking distance of the endzone, he puts his blinders on and keeps it for himself… selfish bastard. When facing an insanely talented Seattle Seahawks (2-2) rushing defense (2^nd – 62.8 YPG), there’s not much RB DeAngelo Williams (42 ATT, 167 YDS, 2 TD’s) is going to do to change things. Hell, it may even be a better move to leave the RB spot vacant – so you don’t have the chance at coming up with negative points!
Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills) - Last week Buffalo Bills (2-2) RB Fred Jackson (19 ATT, 44 YDS, 0 TD’s) stats were less-than-thrilling, to be extremely nice about it (13 ATT, 29 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 50 REC YDS, 1 FUM, 0 TD’s). I don’t see the San Francisco’s 49’ers (3-1) 6^th-ranked rushing defense (79.5 YPG) helping Jackson in any category – or C.J. Spiller, for that matter. The 49’ers have given up the fewest fantasy points of any defense this year (7.78 PPG) to opposing runners. That being said, sit yo’ ass down, Frederick!
Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers) – I’m sure most everyone who owns Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) starting RB Rashard Mendenall is elated to see him come back from his knee injury this Sunday… but, not so fast. Being that it’s in the thick of bye week insanity, you may have no choice but to start Mendenhall, but if you have the option, I’d let him ride this one out. Oh, c'mon... it's not like you're used to playing him anyway!

WR's - Sit 'Em!

Stevie Johnson (Buffalo Bills) – After last week’s atrocity (2 REC, 23 YDS, O TD’s) with Buffalo Bills (2-2) premier WR Stevie Johnson (15 REC, 195 YDS, 3 TD’s) at home against a shotty New England Patriots (2-2) secondary who has been giving up an average of 281.5 YPG through the air, I don’t see them being able to do much more against a San Francisco 49’ers (3-1) secondary who can simply shut people down. Combine that with the fact that Johnson will be double-teamed all day and it’s probably time to find a sleeper on the waiver wire for this week. Is Miami’s TE Brian Hartline still available?!
Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) – Yet again, don’t even get me started on just how overrated the Arizona Cardinals (4-0) have been and continue to be. Most people would think by starting Pro-Bowl WR Larry Fitzgerald (22 REC, 245 YDS, 2 TD’s) it may lead to some easy fantasy points against the St. Louis Rams (2-2) – think again. The Rams are surprisingly ranked 11^th in the league on passing defense (213.5 YPG) and will assuredly double-team Fitzgerald all night long with most of the pressure coming from star CB Cortland Finnegan (26 TACK, 3 INT’s) and his smartass mouth… I mean, psychological gameplay.
Fred Davis (Washington Redskins) - Technically, Washington Redskins (2-2) TE Fred Davis (15 REC, 212 YDS, 0 TD’s) isn’t a WR, but he does lead the team in receiving. The Atlanta Falcons (4-0) have a great secondary (8^th – 207 YPG) and I look for them to target Davis with sneaky coverage, attempting to get RGIII to force bad passes which ultimately turn into turnovers. Besides, I think if the ‘Skins have any chance in winning this game it’s going to come from the legs of both Griffin and Morris, not through the air.

2012 NFL Week 5 Picks: Denver Broncos At New England Patriots

Pricetopher — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 03:46:30 -0000

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold for his second week of spread-killing picks. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. Going 2-1 last week on his top picks, let's see how he fares in this week's action!]

Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2)

Pick – Broncos (+7)

Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)

In what is shaping up to be a wet and rainy Sunday afternoon in Foxboro, two teams are looking to face off right at the same time that both of their respective offenses seem to be coming together and hitting their strides.

Although the New England Patriots (2-2) started off shaky last week in Buffalo, I still recall turning to my cousin immediately after a 68-yard touchdown grab from Bills WR Donald Jones, bringing the Buffalo ahead 21-7 with 11:08 left in the 3^rd quarter, and saying, "It doesn’t matter, it’s Tom Brady – I still think the Pats cover." And boy, did they ever wake up and do much, much more than just cover! The Patriots began scoring five unanswered touchdowns, topping the Buffalo Bills (2-2) in a crucial divisional game, 52-28 - led by their franchise QB Tom Brady (102.4 QB Rating – 1,227 YDS, 1 INT, 7 TD’s).

What came out of my mouth next is the part that further leads me to believe the Denver Broncos (2-2) have just that much more going for them in this week’s match-up. After sharing how I felt about the Patriots still covering the point-spread, I then said, "There’s only one other quarterback I’d rather have in this position and that’s Peyton Manning." Having a much more difficult beginning of his season and facing far better defensive units in Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston, QB Peyton Manning (96.9 QB Rating – 1,162 YDS, 3 INT’s, 8 TD’s) has shown me that he still has the tenacity and overall skills needed to get the job done. If you watched the Broncos completely dismantle the Oakland Raiders (1-3) last week, you now understand that it’s not only Manning and company that do it on offense, it’s also the Broncos overall defensive play (13^th in Passing YPG - 220.5 and 9^th in Rushing YPG - 87.5) that has been as much a key to their success as the "laser rocket arm" of Manning. Add this to the fact that the Patriots secondary has been suspect of late, giving up 281.5 passing yards per game (25^th) while also allowing sub-par quarterbacks to find holes in their zone coverage so far this season and everything adds up to a big day for Manning and the Broncos.

As long as Denver can get somewhat of a grasp on the top-notch receiving unit that New England has pieced together, namely stopping WR’s Brandon Lloyd’s (25 REC, 287 YDS, 1 TD) deep routes, Wes Welker (25 REC, 380 YDS, 0 TD’s) from his short, cross-field patterns and TE Rob Gronkowski (19 REC, 260 YDS, 3 TD’s) from his quick streaks down the middle of the field, I can see Denver pulling this game off without the points, never mind getting a touchdown for their traveling troubles. Alongside those hopes is RB Willis McGahee (69 ATT, 325 YDS, 3 TD’s), attempting to make his second real appearance in as many weeks. That is, of course, if DT Vince Wilfork decides to stay away and promises to never hit anyone the way he trucked Bills receiver Donald Jones last week – mother of God! (I’d say it’s safe to assume that Jones ate dinner through a straw Sunday evening.)

*In case you missed the Wilfork hit on Jones: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N606Knnr_kY

Both Manning and Brady are far too intelligent and know one another all too well to come into Sunday’s game unprepared. While Denver is eager to win on the road and has all the tools to do so, New England simply cannot afford to drop another game at home. Speaking of Sunday's game, can someone please tell me why in the holy hell this isn't a primetime match-up?! I don't care what kind of potential they felt the Chargers vs. Saints game had, this is Manning vs. Brady, people! You know, sometimes the NFL could screw up a wet dream, I swear. Anyway, the fact that bookmakers are giving up a full touchdown to Denver shocks me, to be honest. You're telling me with what you've seen so far this season that you're going to give Peyton Manning a full 7-point head start to a Patriots team who hasn't proven a damn thing in over a month and you're not going to take it?! Pshhhh! If you're that naive, I've got some oceanfront property for sale in Indianapolis.

Let's see how Tom Brady feels about all of this talk of Manning and the Broncos coming into Foxboro to do work...

http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/TOM-BRADY-FUCK-YOU-BITCHES.gif

Just So Ya' Know:

Manning is 4-2 in last 6 meetings against Brady (4-8 all-time)
Including the post-season, the last 5 Manning-Brady games have been decided by 7-points or less
Broncos are outscoring opponents 79-26 in 2^nd half of games
Patriots have not lost back-to-back home games since 2008 (Jets/Steelers)

2012 NFL Week 5 Pick of the Week: Houston Texans At New York Jets

Pricetopher — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 04:25:11 -0000

Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2)

Pick – Texans (-7.5)

Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!

Watching QB Mark Sanchez (69.6 QB Rating - 813 YDS, 5 TD's, 4 INT's) attempt to lead this New York Jets (2-2) franchise week after week has left much to be desired, to put it lightly. Maybe this is the week that the Jets get over the hump, get it turned around and... ahhh, hell... the Houston Texans (4-0) are headed into town - never mind.

If you were looking forward to a great start of the 2012 season for the Jets - you know, the same way ESPN and Rex Ryan over-hyped them since January - those hopes were quickly crushed when New York allowed the San Francisco 49’ers (3-1) to come into Met Life Stadium this past Sunday and showcased a 34-0 routing while taking the team’s leading WR Santonio Holmes (20 REC, 272 YDS, 1 TD) with them. San Francisco’s defense was as good as everyone expected; now allow me to introduce you to a Texans franchise who can shut down both the run (11^th – 90.3 YPG) and the pass (2^nd – 182.8 YPG) in impressive fashion while putting up numbers in bunches (31.5 PPG).

As everyone discusses Houston’s offensive power with their duo of workhorse RB’s Arian Foster (103 ATT, 380 YDS, 4 TD’s) and Ben Tate (30 ATT, 117 YDS, 2 TD’s), combined with the leadership of QB Matt Schaub (105.3 QB Rating - 953 YDS, 1 INT, 7 TD’s) and further complimented by their premier WR Andre Johnson (16 REC, 268 YDS, 2 TD’s) and TE Owen Daniels (19 REC, 232 YDS, 2 TD’s), I feel it's the defense that is going to be the key in covering the spread in New York. Consider it a good thing that no one expects anything from Sanchez’s passing game because he’s definitely not going to change any minds this week when facing a pass defense that'd make the two fine gentlemen playing in Foxboro this weekend lose sleep. Oh, and being the "talk of the town" throughout the sports world, we now want to spotlight the Texans on Monday Night Football? Game over.

Last week Sanchez looked extremely off - even for Sanchez. I’m not sure if the route-running was poorly timed, if no one on the team (offense or defense) were on the same page, if girlfriend Eva Longoria kept Sanchez up too late on Pinterest or if it’s simply his time to finally take a back seat and allow QB Tim Tebow to take the reigns at this point?

Whatever it is, let’s be honest - Sanchez is no leader. He’s not your come-from-behind quarterback. He’s not your scrambler out of the pocket. He’s not your deep threat, downfield passer. He’s not your athlete who simply makes things happen when he needs to. He’s… well... he's Mark Sanchez - a sub-par quarterback trying to fill a starter’s role. He could only hide behind a great defense for a few years – without CB Darrelle Revis he seems even more lackluster. Now, you’re asking this man to do the seemingly impossible without their key receiver on the field? C’mon, man… that sh*t cray!

Don’t let the half-point, thoughts of a breakout game by the Jets or being on the road while on MNF scare you – sometimes it’s as simple as it seems. Take the Texans to cover - like they've been doing the entire season... yes, they're that good!

Just So Ya' Know:

Texans are 4-0 ATS this season
Texans are 7-0-1 ATS in last 8-games following SU win of 14-points or more
Jets are 5-0 all-time vs. Texans

2012 NFL Week 5 Picks: Arizona Cardinals At St. Louis Rams

Pricetopher — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 02:59:26 -0000

Cardinals (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)

Pick – Rams (+2)

Good Call: Three Stars (Out of Five)

I'd be lying if I said that once I first saw this line a few days ago that I wasn't confused as to why the Arizona Cardinals (4-0) weren't at least 6-point favorites to the St. Louis Rams (2-2). Then, after watching more snippets of last week's OT game against Miami, while crunching the numbers as hard as humanly possible, it got me to the realization that the Rams have exactly what it takes to pull this kind of game off and "stun" so many people way out West. I know for many of you this may take some convincing, but stay patient and hear me out.

For those who have recently began following my picks and listening to my rants (yes, both of you), it’s common knowledge that I feel the Cardinals are pretenders amongst the list of undefeated teams in the NFL – hell, or just overall. Their lack of offense and ranks amongst the bottom-feeders in the league is a huge reason behind why I'm such a skeptic. When examining their passing offense (25^th – 203.0 YPG) combined with the inability to run the ball (29^th – 68.0 YPG), you may not be able to stop asking yourself how, in fact, they’re 4-0?! The only thing I can come up with is the trifecta of a good defense, luck and prayer. How else can you explain averaging only 307 yards of total offense throughout 4-games and not dropping one? Let’s be honest – the Seahawks have virtually zero offense, the Patriots played terribly and missed a chip-shot for the win, Philadelphia went 1-5 in the red zone and Miami throttled them up and down the field all game long. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that they have a solid defensive unit, but let’s not be too quick to give them all of the credit for their record. Again, we must remember that there’s also a lot of luck and prayer that’s gone into this, too. How much? We’ll never be certain.

Furthermore, with QB Kevin Kolb (97.6 QB Rating - 752 YDS, 7 TD’s, 2 INT’s) having mid-level numbers and starting off undefeated, it may also be difficult to understand why he has been drawing so much skepticism from fans so far this season. It comes down to his inability to take leadership and look comfortable throwing the football. No matter who you are, if WR Larry Fitzgerald (22 REC, 245 YDS, 0 TD’s) is wearing the same jersey, it’s ok to have faith in your Pro-Bowl receiver and throw up a jump-ball every now and again instead of over-thinking it and collecting 8 sacks like Kolb did against Miami. Plain and simple, Kolb was replaced at the beginning of the season by QB John Skelton (out since week 1 with an ankle injury) for a reason; but once you retain that starting position, you should probably take charge of your team, show some confidence and… wait for it... LOOK LIKE A STARTER! None of the aforementioned being Kolb's forte.

I haven’t even began to mention the inability Arizona’s offense has running the ball with RB Beanie Wells (29 ATT, 76 YDS, 0 TD’s) in the starting spot. But, now they must try moving the ball on the ground in their second game without their starter, relying on RB Ryan Williams (44 ATT, 131 YDS, 0 TD’s) to carry the load? Oh, hell no! Whether facing a good rushing defense or not, Williams compiled only 26 yards on 13 carries last week against Miami – dreadful numbers, especially when the passing scheme looks to be virtually non-existent. Those stats aren't even good enough to make the varsity football team at my podunk high school! I mean, ummm... GO, TIGERS!

On the Rams side of the ball, I look for RB Steven Jackson (59 ATT, 195 YDS, 0 TD’s) to finally have a breakout performance – by "breakout" I mean topping that elusive 60-yard mark that he’s yet to find in his first 4-games of the season. Given the shortened week, I think St. Louis should look for QB Sam Bradford (80.1 QB Rating - 881 YDS, 4 INT’s, 4 TD’s) to rely on mostly quick, screen-type passes to WR’s Danny Amendola (31 REC, 351 YDS, 2 TD’s) and Brandon Gibson (10 REC, 151 YDS, 2 TD’s). The Rams can help improve their extremely low passing stats (28^th – 196.5 YPG) by allowing Jackson to first open up the run game and then exploit whatever holes they can find in Ray Horton’s 3-4 defense - who looked extremely tired and worn out towards the end of Sunday’s match-up with Miami.

Finally, and probably most importantly, is K Greg Zuerlein’s (12/12 FG, 5/5 XP) 3 Wood that he has for a leg. Yes, out of Kolb, Fitzgerald, Bradford, Jackson and Amendola, I think the weight of this game falls directly on the success of "Zipline" Zuerlein’s (copyright pending) so far perfect season. When a team’s offense is needing help putting points on the board and can rely on their rookie kicker to not only hit 58 and 60-yarders in the same game, but to also throw a touchdown pass to boot; I think it’s safe to say he’s a crucial part of this team's overall success.

Traveling cross-country after an overtime game to play on Rams’ turf (where they're unbeaten on the season) for St. Louis’ first primetime game of the season, all while giving up points is just too much for anyone, let alone a team whose already on their backup RB and QB. As happy as I am to say it, your borrowed time is up and it’s time for your long, steep fall from grace, Arizona.

Just So Ya' Know:

Rams are 3-1 ATS this season
Rams are 2-0 at home this season
Cardinals 3rd consecutive road game

NFL Fantasy Football Week 4: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em - Unless You’re A Fan of Losing

Pricetopher — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 20:34:34 -0000

Don't forget to check the SBNation.com Fantasy WAR ROOM!! WARRRRRRRR!!! ARAGHHHHHHHH!!! FOR THE HORDE!!!!!!!!!!!!

QB’s – Start ‘Em!

Robert Griffin, III (Washington Redskins) – It’s not a surprise to many that QB Robert Griffin, III is throwing up Fantasy Football points like a young, not-yet-convicted, Michael Vick in his prime. His ability to avoid sacks, pick up extra yardage with his legs and also being able to throw a rather decent ball on the run has him in the prime spot heading to Tampa this weekend. The Buccaneers pass-defense is ranked dead last in the league, giving up 353.3 YPG – just two weeks back giving up 510 passing yards to Eli Manning and the Giants. Look for an absolutely HUGE game from RG III in this one.

Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) – I personally think that QB Matt Ryan understands that a 4-0 start for him and his Atlanta Falcons team, while throwing up NFL-leading stats in his first 3-games this season, is well in sight. Look for Atlanta’s passing attack to dominate Carolina’s suspect (to put it lightly) defense this Sunday when the Falcons to really show up at home… where "Matty Ice" always seems to do his best work.

Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - On the flipside of the RGIII call, Washington has given up the most passing TD’s (10) yet this season and is apparently trying to give the Buc’s league-worst passing defense a run for their money, trailing closely behind, giving up 337.3 passing YPG. I’m not normally a fan of Freeman, especially since he only has 491 passing yards on the season, but this game looks to be a shootout between these young quarterbacks.

Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle - US PRESSWIRE

RB’s - Start ‘Em!

Arian Foster (Houston Texans) – I understand that throwing RB Arian Foster’s name out there isn’t exactly shocking the world. However, I wouldn’t typically do so when a player is coming directly off of a key injury to his knee… unless it’s the Houston Texans. And, I also wouldn’t do the same when they’re playing a divisional opponent… unless it’s the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are giving up just over 150 YPG on the ground, looking like it’s going to be a field day for Mr. Foster and company – I say "and company" because if you can handcuff him with fellow RB Ben Tate… game on!

Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons) – I feel like this game is a chance for RB Michael Turner to become himself again… given that he remains sober for the entirety of the game. I feel that Carolina gets slaughtered through Matt Ryan’s air-attack, but Turner’s running game is what will keep the Panthers honest, leaving the play-action wide open.

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) Although Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles isn’t likely to have another outing against the Chargers like he did last week against New Orleans’ putrid defense, I still think he’s gotten his confidence back and is ready to be himself again in a place where he does it best – Arrowhead Stadium. He may not be the prettiest thing to look at once he takes his helmet off, but damn… he sure is nice to watch when he’s breaking tackles and putting spin-moves on fools like me back in the day (playing Madden, of course). Rack ‘em!

Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle - US PRESSWIRE

WR’s – Start ‘Em!

Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions) – I understand that QB Matthew Stafford is listed as questionable - and, in all reality, is most likely out for Sunday’s game against the Vikings. That aside, when you have a 6’5", 236 lb. beast of a man with hands that look like the Hamburger Helper mascot, I don’t care if you have Linda Broughton (Hi, mom!) throwing the ball to him… big things are bound to happen! If you don’t already have him, try trading for TE Brandon Pettigrew – these two handcuffed together are a no-brainer as well as massive targets.

Wes Welker (New England Patriots) Had I called Patriots’ WR Wes Welker’s name here at the beginning of the season, you’d look at me like, "Well, no sh*t?!" But, that was long before we knew that Welker was going to see very limited playing time on the field thanks to WR Julian Edelman’s role. Regardless, with both Edelman (hand) and TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) out for Sunday’s game in Buffalo, look for Welker to replicate exactly what he did last week in Baltimore (8 Rec., 142 Yards) – you just can’t stop those short-route crossing patterns across the middle!

Steve Johnson (Buffalo Bills) Seeing as how New England’s secondary has been a little shaky, followed by the fact that it looks as if Buffalo Bills starting RB C.J. Spiller (shoulder) will be missing from Sunday’s festivities, I see no choice but to try to air it out to one of the best receiving talents in the NFL – just pray he’s not quadruple-covered. I guess they could always dump it off to the team’s second leading receiver… nope, never mind… Spiller holds that role, too. Well, there’s always TE Scott Chandler. Wait, what? Who?!

Photo Credit: Frederick Breedon - Getty Images

QB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) Aside from the fact that I simply can’t stand this complete bag-o-tools, QB Jay Cutler is on pace to throw 32 INT’s with a laughable 58.6 QB Rating. I truly think QB Jason Campbell should start warming up as soon as possible. I also think that there should be a reality show with Jay Cutler and former Chargers QB Ryan Leaf aptly titled "Douche" – sweeps week! I guess it’s ok to blame your offensive line for all the hard hits and overall disgusting play at Green Bay, but what about the other 6-seasons? Zing!

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) On the opposite end of Cutler and the Bears, you’ll have Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who I really, REALLY want to like – I just can’t bring myself to do it. Besides, Chicago has a pretty solid defense, which doesn’t bode well for Romo or the whopping 5-points he put up in Fantasy Football last week.

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) Sit Andrew Luck this week… because the Colts have a bye, DUH! Although I feel he could possibly still have a better week than Jay Cutler. (Yes, this is a joke - I despise Jay Cutler that much!)

[Editor's Note: If you are reading this blog and you have to be reminded to sit Andrew Luck this week, I've seen tree stumps smarter. - Brad]

Photo Credit: Michael Hickey - Getty Images

RB’s – Sit ‘Em!

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) I literally don’t understand how any NFL team can have a rushing average of only 39 YPG going into week 4 – especially with RB Chris Johnson carrying the ball?! What it comes down to is the fact that Moses himself couldn’t split a hole wide enough to pick up a 4th and Goal conversion with just inches to go with the offensive line that Tennessee Titans bring to the field. That with the fact that they’re on the road, going up against one of the absolute best overall defenses in the game – I’ll punch you in the face if you think about starting this guy! [I apologize. I got a bit out of line there.]

Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints) New Orleans RB duo Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram have a combined 217 yards on 46 carries in 3-games. I wonder what their combined yardage is going to be after Clay Matthews takes their lunch money and sends one off the field early come Sunday at Lambeau Field?

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) I wish I could say I didn’t take the bait and bite on drafting/trading for Rams RB Steven Jackson in a few of my Fantasy Football Leagues this season… but, I did. Now here he sits, questionable to play, having yet to top that elusive 60-yard mark. Yes, you heard me correctly; Jackson’s best effort came against Washington where he got hurt mid-way through what was shaping up to be a good game for the Las Vegas native. And now he’s being put up against the Seattle Seahawks who know how to do one thing very well – stop the run. To the tune of Outkast - "I’m sorry, Mr. Jackson (oooooh) I am for real!"

Photo Credit: Don McPeak - US PRESSWIRE

WR’s – Sit ‘Em!

Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles) Philadelphia Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin practiced Thursday (hip), but I don’t think there’s really any way he causes serious damage against the Giants. Besides, if he does decide to find a way to get open, QB Michael Vick will probably have fumbled the ball and have come up lame with some kind of injury by the time Maclin turns to catch the impending pass. I can see it now: #7 – QB – Michael Vick (Out 2-3 weeks w/ hurt feelings)

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders) With WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (concussion/neck strain) getting his clock cleaned, ending up unconscious in the end zone and waking up the following day in the hospital, I think it’s safe to say that the only real deep threat the Oakland Raiders have is WR Denarius Moore for Sunday’s game in Denver. I’m sure the Broncos are well aware of the situation and will double-team Moore all day, leaving QB Carson Palmer to check-down to TE Brandon Myers… if he plays (concussion). Can you imagine if the Raiders have to rely on the (gasps) RUN?! Gulp!

Sidney Rice (Seattle Seahawks) So, not only has WR Sidney Rice not done anything all season, you’re now expecting him to go in on a short week, line up against one of the NFL’s best CB’s, Cortland Finnegan and then have a breakout game with QB Russell Wilson throwing the ball? C’mon, man… you’re still wound up over that Monday night game, aren’t you?

Photo Credit: Rich Schultz - Getty Images

2012 NFL Week 4 Pick of the Week: Panthers At Falcons

Pricetopher — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 02:52:47 -0000

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if you, you know, hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (3-0)

Pick – Falcons (-7)

Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!

Let me start this by asking what else the Atlanta Falcons (3-0) have to do to get the credit they so rightfully deserve? Well, I suppose crushing the lowly Carolina Panthers (1-2) couldn’t hurt, right?

It’s funny, because every time I hear someone discussing this game in favor of the Panthers (both of the people I’ve heard speak such ridiculousness), all I hear over and over is how great of an athlete Carolina’s QB Cam Newton (78.3 QB Rating – 798 Yards, 2 TD’s 5 INT’s) is and/or can be. Great, good for him… now sit back and let me tell you a little tale of Cpt. Ryan and his close friends: Mr. White, Sir Turner, Mr. Jones, Sr. Gonzalez and company.

You know, I won’t insult your intelligence and will assume you already are aware of the damage that the NFL league-leading "Matty Ice’s" (114 QB Rating – 793 Yards, 8 TD’s, 1 INT) tends to do - especially when at home. I’ll also assume you understand just how terrible Carolina’s rushing defense is at the moment (27th overall, allowing 139.3 YPG). Hell, don’t even get me started on Atlanta’s receiving core… I mean, who in the holy hell do you choose to cover?!

All that aside, what I think will be the key to dismantling the Panthers this week is the absolute dominance Atlanta’s defensive secondary has shown over the past three games. Right, Peyton? Together, DB’s Samuel, Robinson and DeCoud have combined for 7 interceptions and held Philip Rivers’ (86.5 QB Rating – 688 Yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) usually high-powered passing game to a measly 173 yards, with 2 interceptions coming last week, holding a team that was averaging 30 points-per-game to merely a field goal… in San Diego, no less.

Ok, ok… I guess I should at least be less biased and give you some feedback on what Carolina has going for them. For starters, RB Jonathan Stewart (51 Yards, 0 TD’s) is returning from injury for Sunday’s game. And… ummm… well… it looks like we covered all of the positives. That was brief.

You have to take Atlanta to cover in this one, especially being an absolute turning point for this franchise to look like a powerhouse, even if it is against Carolina. These numbers are just like Shakira's hips, gentlemen… they just don’t lie!

Just So Ya’ Know:

Falcons are 3-0 ATS this season
Panthers are 0-4 ATS in last 4 meetings in Atlanta
Panthers WR Steve Smith was shown verbally destroying QB Cam Newton on the sidelines last week – the chemistry on the team is simply not there

2012 NFL Week 4 Picks: New England Patriots At Buffalo Bills

Pricetopher — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 02:42:35 -0000

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if, you know, it's your thing to hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]

Patriots (1-2) @ Bills (2-1)

Pick – Patriots (-4)

Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)

The New England Patriots (1-2), on the verge of their first 3-game losing skid since Indiana University played in the NCAA National Championship game (yep, THAT long ago - 2002), have every reason to have a chip on their shoulders when they head to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday to completely dismantle a C.J. Spiller-less Buffalo Bills (2-1).

Don’t let Buffalo’s record fool you – with both wins coming from terrible squads (Chiefs, 1-2 and Browns, 0-3) nor the fact that they’re currently ranked 3rd in overall rushing yards (178.0 YPG) in the NFL – key word being currently. With leading rusher C.J. Spiller (308 Yards, 3 TD’s) confirmed out for Sunday and Fred Jackson just returning from injury, I can only assume RB Tashard Choice (131 Yards, 0 TD’s) will be handling the load for the Bills, which doesn’t bode well for the upcoming 7th ranked rushing defense (81.0 YPG) they’re about to face lead by Vince Wilfork and company.

I feel like fans and bettors alike got to see what Buffalo was truly made of whenever Spiller went out due to injury nearing the end of the 1st quarter last Sunday in Cleveland, aiding in Buffalo’s 14-0 lead at the time. In the next 3 quarters, the Bills could merely string together 10-points, going a horrendous 2-5 in the red zone and should be thankful Cleveland is God-awful, only managing to throw up a whopping 240 yards of total offense! To me, this tells us all that without Spiller, they’re right back to the Buffalo Bills we’ve all come to loathe over the years.

Add all of this to the fact that Tom Brady (97.0 QB Rating, 887 Yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) and Wes Welker (16 Rec., 251 Yards, 0 TD’s) seemed to find their stride again, connecting for an impressive 142 yards on just 8 completions (it’s obvious someone wants more playing time) in last week’s loss to Baltimore and I see this one ending with a double-digit victory for the Pats.

Just So Ya’ Know:

Patriots two losses this season were by a combined total of 3-points to teams with a combined record of 5-1
Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 match-ups against the Bills
Patriots are 20-2 overall in their last 22 meetings with the Bills

2012 NFL Week 4 Picks: Philadelphia Eagles At New York Giants

Pricetopher — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 02:31:16 -0000

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if, you know, it's your thing to hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]

Giants (2-1) @ Eagles (2-1)

Pick – Giants (+2.5)

Good Call: Three Stars (Out of Five)

Plain and simple, if you’re telling me that I must take the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants (2-1), who have NFL passing leader Eli Manning (97.1 QB Rating - 1,011 Yards, 5 TD’s, 3 INT’s) at the helm, all with a solid defensive unit behind them AND a few points to go along with it, I’ll take the combo platter!

I understand that playing in the confines of Philadelphia is a tough environment for anyone, no matter the last name of the gunslinger. I must also give the Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) defensive squad the respect they’ve rightfully earned, ranking 3rd in passing yards allowed. But, they’ve also haven’t faced the Giants… and more importantly, they’ve yet to hold onto the ball! The Eagles have turned the pigskin over 12 times in the past 3 games, and after the absolute drumming they took when out West against the Arizona Cardinals (3-0), a team who I still believe is all smoke and mirrors, I personally think that neither Michael Vick (66.3 QB Rating - 905 Yards, 3 TD’s, 6 INT’s) or the shotty offensive line they’ve got "protecting" him will be able to maneuver around the fast-paced, Pierre-Paul/Tuck/Umenyiora-filled pass-rushers. For the love of God, did you watch how the Eagles handled the ball anytime they were even in the vicinity of the red zone?! Pathetic.

Oh yeah, and who could forget about the ongoing feud between DE Osi Umenyiora and Philadelphia’s RB LeSean McCoy (261 Yards, 1 TD) that’s ready to explode? That’s a disastrous fight of beastly men that I see blowing up in this one… grab the popcorn!

This should be a great game to watch, being a fan of crushing blows. That being said, I don’t see Michael Vick making it out alive. He’s already, like always, not at full-capacity and this isn’t the ‘01-’02 NFL you’re playing in anymore, Vick… people are onto your little shenanigans (yes, I just said shenanigans), especially teams like the reigning champions who’ve had an extended week to prepare. Besides, the last time I was confused as hell to why the Giants were underdogs was about a week ago when they were in Carolina - where they beat the total hell out of the Kitty-Cam’s (I’m patenting that, back off), 36-7. These games are always far too close - take the points, fellas!

Just So Ya’ Know:

Eagles are 0-3 ATS this season
Underdog is 13-3 in last 16 meetings
Road team is 8-2 in last 10 meetings
Giants WR Hakeem Nicks (237 yards, 1 TD) and RB Ahmad Bradshaw (94 yards, 1 TD) practiced Thursday