Several of my fellow Pulpiteers have already analyzed the schedule and, most recently, ventured some predictions about wins and losses. I'll try not to repeat what they've said--and I won't make any predictions about results--but I do have some thoughts to offer about various ways we can look at this year's schedule after the jump.

Here are a variety of ways of slicing and dicing the 17 week slog that begins next Monday night in Miami.

• The 4-8-4 package: By one glance, the schedule seems bookended with four relatively easy games to start, four relatively easy games to end, and eight near-murderous games in between. Inevitably, some of the "easy" games in the two sets of four will be much harder than they look. And some of those eight games in the middle will be much easier than they appear now. But the schedule does seem set up for a potential fast start and a strong stretch run. A sweep of the two four-game sets and a split of the eight games in the middle would equal a 12-4 record.
  
• The 6-6-4 package: A variation of the above, but one built around the first six games until the bye week, then the remaining 6 duck-and-cover games, then the final four. Viewing it this way provides a nice way to break up that difficult stretch, as it includes the Jets and Cowboys games. By the bye week, with two weeks to prepare for the Steelers, we should know a lot about our team. Three divisional games will be in the books. So will three road games. Home games against the Jets and Cowboys will have provided a final, pre-bye week tuneup for our very tough stretch of games to follow. And by December, we should know whether we'll be taking a victory lap like last year, or needing to win every single game to grab a playoff spot.
  
• Games that look easy now that might not be: The opener at Miami. Last year excepted, the Dolphins always seem to play us close, beat us regularly, and challenge us every single time. Signs out of Miami are not encouraging this preseason. Smart people pick them last in the AFC East. But it's the first game, the Dolphins embarrassed themselves last season, especially against us (think Tony Sparano won't be showing them tapes of the Monday Night Football blowout from Week 4 last year for motivation? The one that was so bad that it got their special teams coach fired?). Miami doesn't seem like a tough opener; but neither did Buffalo in 2009 and that took a miraculous Brady-esque comeback to win 25-24. I''m worried that a similar overconfidence might play into the Dolphins' hands. It's the first game; anything could happen. Most all of the preseason predictions I've seen have the Kansas City Chiefs (November 21) taking a step back  this year. Maybe that will happen. But something tells me that the return of Scott Pioli, Romeo Crennel, and Matt Cassel to Foxboro for Monday Night Football will be an occasion for the Chiefs to bring their "A" game. Besides, this looms as a classic trap game for the Patriots: a home game sandwiched around titanic road games at the Jets and at Philadelphia. Finally, the Patriots have always struggled with Denver (December 18), particularly on the road. I know the Broncos are down this year but John Fox is a pretty good coach and Denver is due for some good injury luck. The Broncos may not have much to play for that late in the year, but New England must be on guard against coasting, having just recently come off that brutal 8 game stretch. This could be a game that sneaks up on the Patriots and the Broncos might be looking to make a statement.
  

• Games that look tough now that might not be: On paper these four games I've highlighted look like tough ones but the reality might be much different. On the surface, the Dallas game (October 16) might seem very tough (and some will tout it as a Super Bowl prequel). But are the Cowboys really that good? They were actually a very bad football team last year and I wonder if they've got all the problems fixed, or at least patched. The last time we played the New York Giants in a game that mattered, the G-Men broke our hearts. This year's New York game (November 6) shapes up as another toughie. To be sure, the Giants have the things that can hurt us: a punishing pass rush, a formidable defensive line, a running game, and a quarterback who seems to regard himself as Tom Brady's equal (even if no one else does). Still, the Giants have been hugely disappointing post-Super Bowl 42. They have already sustained some devastating injuries. They might not have much left in the tank for this one.Is it also possible that the game at the New York Jets on November 13 will not be tough? What? Blasphemy! But I wonder if Gang Green haven't hit a ceiling the past two years with back to back AFC title game appearances. Getting there twice and losing twice has got to take something out of a team that was built for the short term, to win now, not two years from now. Rex Ryan guaranteed Super Bowl trophies, not conference title  game appearances. This year's Jets team is, arguably, weaker than the one they put on the field last year. Ryan's emotional style has worked well in the short run the last two seasons. But has it already reached its shelf life? Is there a fast-approaching expiration date on Ryan-mania? I think--maybe it's wishful thinking, maybe I'm delusional--that the Jets may go to Ryan's emotional, us-against-the-world well a few too may times this season and come up empy. By mid-November, even against the Patriots, a team they regard with painful envy even while they attack them as the Great Satan, perhaps the Jets will already be reeling and discovering that they missed their best chances to get to a Super Bowl the past two seasons. Ryan seems to think the Jets can automatically be counted into the AFC title bout and all they have to do is figure out how to finally win that game. Ryan's approach has had good success the last two years. But it requires a constant emotional fever pitch that will be very difficult to sustain for a third season, not to mention over a decade or more. Maybe the Meadowlands game ends up being much easier than it looks now. And speaking of blasphemy, dare I suggest that the annual Indianapolis Colts game (December 4) might not be that tough? We have no way of knowing what Peyton Manning's true condition is, how fast he'll recover, and what it means for the Colts this year. In contrast to previous seasons, their team seems older, slower, much less deep, and far more vulnerable than usual. If Manning is sub-par, too, things might have already snowballed so far out of control by December that the Colts and Manning will already be planning their comeback season in 2012. Or so this Patriots boy can dream.

• Super Bowl preview?: Patriots at Eagles the Sunday after Thanksgiving. This one will be tough regardless. Even a quick glance at the schedule for possible losses would put this game at the top of such a list. We might lose, but it has the potential to a game like the regular season loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2001. The Patriots used that game to figure out what DIDN'T work against the Rams and to calculate what could (and did) work out for them in the Super Bowl rematch. A similar thing happened in 2004 with that Halloween loss to the Steelers, who lived to regret that come AFC championship game time. And, of course, it worked in reverse when the Giants did that to us in 2007, losing the regular season finale but then shocking the world by getting to the Super Bowl and then upsetting us, fueled with confidence they could beat us from nearly doing so the first time around. But even if neither the Patriots nor the Eagles makes the Bowl this year, this game is certain to have the hype and the atmosphere of a Super Bowl preview to it. Think of the teaser promos: Belichick vs. the Dream Team--I mean the Heat--I mean the LeBrons--oh, nevermind.
  

So, any way we break it down, this year's schedule is intriguing and likely to get more so in ways we can't even imagine yet. Let the games begin.

The headline, of course, is that 2007 first round pick Brandon Meriweather has been cut. Not benched, not traded. Cut. Meriweather's release shows that the Patriots are basically blowing up the safety position and trying to find something that works. The Patriots have now cycled through a bunch of players at the safety slots the last couple of years--Meriweather, James Sanders, Patrick Chung, Jarrad Page, Bret Lockett, Josh Barrett, Brandon McGowan, Sergio Brown, Buddy Farnham, the brothers Ventrone, and perhaps a few more I've forgotten about.

Today, only Chung, Barrett, and Brown remain from that group and they are joined now by James Ihedigbo.

As dramatic as it seems, however, Meriweather's release is just the latest in a long series of moves that Patriots have taken to address what is clearly still an area of concern and has been for some time.

It started at least as far back as the end of the 2009 season when New England, after having Josh Boyer as coach of all the defensive backs, hired Corwin Brown to tutor the safeties. This was an indication that the position required a coach dedicated solely to safeties. Brown had all the right credentials--he had played and coached in the league, he was a defensive coordinator under Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, and he seemed like a good hire. But something didn't click and New England's safety play still left something to be desired. Brown was let go after only one season (and his recent legal troubles suggest, sadly, that there was more to the story than we knew at the time). To replace him, the Pats moved Matt Patricia from linebacker coach, a post he had held since 2006, to safeties coach. This was an indication of just how seriously they saw the problem. Patricia is perhaps the team's de facto defensive coordinator, a man entrusted with lots of responsibilities, a very bright young coaching mind who might be a head coach himself by now if the Josh McDaniels hire and fire hadn't cooled the enthusiasm around the league for young twigs off the Belichick tree. Moving him in to coach safeties suggested that this was a problem area they felt they had to address not by hiring an outsider like Corwin Brown (however well-credentialed) but by shifting a proven insider to handle the job.

The coaching shift was just one reflection of how seriously the Patriots considered the problem. They have used the pre-season to experiment with various combinations of safeties and found most of them wanting. Sanders, a vet and the hero of last year's win over the Colts, was let go. He seemed like a solid number 3 safety and a spot starter, but the Pats wanted something more, or something different. Page was allowed to get away as a free agent and McGowan and Lockett were shown the door as well. The Patriots tried to motivate their safeties by bringing in Darren Sharper and Dashon Goldson for a look. That didn't seem to produce the kind of improvement they were looking for either.

With today's roster cutdowns, the Patriots are left with only four safeties. It is always possible they are not yet set at this position. They might find someone on the waiver wire they want. There might be a veteran or two they could bring in. Maybe they cut Sanders and Meriweather in the same week because they already had the next move figured out. Goldson is off the market, but who knows if they worked out some sort of Junior Seau-like arrangement with Sharper, a 35 year old who--if not asked to play that many downs per week--might still have a lot to offer if he is used sparingly and judiciously.

Unless and until New England brings in someone new, their radical resetting of the safety position now looks like this: Patrick Chung is solid, versatile, talented, and a rising leader. He is athletic, he can play in coverage, he can tackle, he can drop down in the box, he can blitz.  He seems on the verge of--if not stardom--at least a solid NFL career. In short, he is becoming the player Meriweather was expected to be but never became. The team is set at one position.

Beside him they have (for now) Sergio Brown, Josh Barrett, and James Ihedigbo. Brown seems promising. He's certainly gotten chances to play, last year and so far this year. He seems to be doing what the coaches want which is key. And he may end up being a very pleasant surprise this season. It's hard to know what the Patriots have in Barrett, who came over last year on waivers from Denver but went immediately to IR and hasn't played much this preseason. But there must have been a reason Belichick got him in the first place. And a reason why he's kept him over Sanders, McGowan, Meriweather, etc. In 2008, the Pats signed Tank Williams, a huge built-like-a-linebacker safety, as a hybrid 'backer/DB. Constant injuries kept that from working out. However, Barrett has a similar kind of build, and perhaps a similar ability to be a hybrid kind of player. Maybe, as Belichick has been thinking and redesigning his defensive personnel and his defensive scheme, Barrett is exactly the sort of break-the-mold safety he had in mind. As for Ihedigbo, how delicious would it be if, once again, the Jets seriously misjudged the talent on their own roster as they did last year when they let Danny Woodhead get away. Ihedigbo might be nothing more than a backup and a special teamer--but did any of us seriously think Woodhead would become anything more than that when we signed him last year? It's possible the Jets, caught up in all their bluster and their flash and dash and media circus atmosphere, blundered again in letting Ihedigbo go. It's also possible that he is another gem plucked from a division rival who fits in perfectly in a specific role with the Patriots, just as Woodhead did, not to mention Wes Welker and Sammy Morris (goodbye, Sammy, and good luck to you) who were unappreciated players plucked from the Dolphins.

What these four safeties also seem to have in common is a crucial trait : they seem coachable. They seem likely to grasp the scheme and the system and see not only their role but how their role relates to the entire defense. They may lack the talent to make huge, spectacular plays, but they may also have the discipline not to give up huge, spectacular plays the other way. In short, they seem the antithesis of the free-lancing, undisciplined Meriweather, who often was out of position and seemed not to know or care that he was out of position. Meriweather may not have been very coachable, and these four might be a step forward in that area. They also are young guys who, given some coaching by Patricia and Belichick, might be capable of doing something else Meriweather never seemed to do: improve. I'm not really sure if Meriweather ever became a better player than he was when he first arrived as a 2007 rookie. He gained experience to be sure, but was he better for having played so much? Did he ever really grow as a player, refine his talent, master his position, become a better player? Or did he remain what he always was--a gifted athlete capable of great things who never scratched the surface of the potential that led the Pats to draft him in the first round?

Today, the Patriots gave us their answers to those questions. He joins Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson and Terrance Wheatley and the other early round draft picks who, for whatever reason, just couldn't get it done and will now have to see if someone else is willing to take a chance on a talented but erratic, undisciplined player. I'm betting he latches on somewhere else quickly. I'm also betting that whoever gets him will soon realize exactly why the Patriots cut him.

So, after the coaching changes, the roster changes, the cuts and moves, the Patriots seem to have one safety position set and the other very much up in the air but not without some hope. Is someone else coming? Is Sharper or another veteran on the way? Might there be a trade this week or early in the season? We don't know yet. But we do know that today's news that the Meriweather experiment is officially over signals a decision to move on to whatever comes next. Today's news is only the latest development in a long-running saga of New England trying to fix its play at the safety position. They may not be set, they may not be finished acquiring and tinkering and moving people around, but the Patriots are clearly unwilling to stand still and tolerate what wasn't working.

They've blown up the  safety positions and started anew. In a month or six weeks or maybe sooner, we'll all know if this detonation was a destructive move or a constructive one. Until then, we can only wait, watch, and hope for the best from this 2011 safety reset.

As a resident of the Detroit area, I've now had a chance to see our Patriots play the Lions twice in the past year--last Thanksgiving's 45-24 beatdown and last night's mess. I can't think of a better illustration of the difference between regular season and preseason than those two games.

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On the surface, today's reported acquisition of manchild/problem child Albert Haynesworth looks almost exactly like the move before 2007 to acquire Randy Moss. Then, as now, a prodigiously talented but attitudinally challenged NFL star who had quit on his previous team and seemed like the ultimate head case--about as un-Patriot like player as could be imagined--joined the team and fans held their collective breath. We all know that Moss worked out pretty damn well--at least until last year. Will Haynesworth be a replay of the success New England had with Moss? A total bust? Or something in between?

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As we wait on the Miami game, the bye week, and then the playoffs, it's never too soon to think about working the roster for next year. Thanks to this excellent and helpful listing by Mike Rodak, published on Mike Reiss's blog, we have a glimpse of the Patriots roster by length of contract. Several things stand out: first, the great balance the Patriots have in terms of not having all the key players coming up at the same time and the way they spread out the roster between 2010 and 2014; second, the last group of contracts expiring after 2014 includes Brady, Wilfork, Gostkowski, and---McCourty. Those are arguably THE key guys, and while it's probably coincidence, it says something that McCourty is grouped with that company.

But what about the players whose contracts expire after this 2010 season? Who should be re-signed? Who should be let go? More after the jump.

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Rex loves to talk, as we all know, and since I'm sure he's long since finished the gameplan for the lowly Patriots who can't in any way match up with his big, bad Jets, maybe he'll kill some time by dropping by our site to peruse our posts. If he does, I've got a few questions I'd love to ask him.

Questions for The Rex:

1) When you were a boy, did you always dream of growing up to be so physically repulsive?

2) Did your lap-band weight loss surgery come with a money back guarantee? Because....how to put this....it doesn't look like it worked.

3) You're a good coach and you have a good team. Why are you so insecure?

4) Has it ever occurred to you that praise is much more effective and meaningful if it comes FROM OTHER PEOPLE rather than yourself? Why do you feel the need to constantly tell us what a great coach you are, what a great defensive mastermind you are? Don't you think it would mean more if other people were singing your praises once in a while---you know, they way they do constantly with Bill Belichick? Belichick never talks about what a great coach he is--but, then again, he doesn't have to since everybody on TV and the papers and online (even those who don't like him) are always talking about what a genius he is.

Do you think it just might mean more if someone other than Rex Ryan was doing the talking about how great Rex Ryan is?

5) Do you still blame yourself for costing the Baltimore Ravens a Monday Night Football upset against the 2007 Patriots by rushing on the field to call a timeout that negated your team's defensive stop and gave the Pats another chance which they used to go on and win the game? You should, because that loss is squarely on you and your coaching blunder. No wonder you're so sensitive about Belichick's rings.

6) Did you ever think that the way to get some respect would be to win a title? And then another? And then another? And then go 16-0? Then some brash, loudmouth coach would snarl about not kissing your rings. I know you seem to think you've won something down there in Gotham, but the last time I checked my NFL record book, no Jets team has won anything since 1969. 

Ouch. Deal with it.

(apologies to Peter King for modeling my title after his)

As I look forward to seeing the Patriots in person Thursday against the Lions here in Detroit, here are some things about the season I know I think:

1. The Jets should be 5-4-1: and trailing us by 2 1/2 games in the standings. If the Lions and Texans weren't completely incapable of managing the clock or end of game situations or even remembering the first rule of pass defense (keep the receiver in front of you) and if the Browns could tackle, New York would have lost to Detroit and Houston and tied Cleveland. These miraculous finishes of theirs are becoming highly irritating. I don't know who Rex Ryan paid off or what he promised in exchange, but he has gotten three consecutive gifts from the football gods. (And to the national sports media: can we just wait a little while longer before we start mentioning Sanchez in the same sentence with Brady and Manning? Like until he actually wins something?).

2. Last year's defense wouldn't have made that play Sunday: that James Sanders interception was a thing of beauty. It's one of those iconic plays and last year's defense would not (and did not) make plays like that. That was the definition of a clutch pick. And yet, how many of you were thinking the same thing I was---why couldn't Asante Samuel have done that in Super Bowl 42?

3. The last two games have felt like the playoffs: consecutive games at Pittsburgh and Indy at home is exactly the kind of schedule we'd likely see come playoff time and the intensity and emotion of the games certainly had a playoff feel to it.

4. The tiebreakers are all falling our way: if we keep winning as much, we may not need them but it's nice to know that if we do slip up a bit and drop some games, that we hold the head-to-head tiebreakers with some pretty good football teams--the Ravens, the Chargers, the Steelers, and the Colts. Those teams would have to catch up to us for us to need it, but it's great to know those teams would have to come to Gillette in January if we played them.

5. Patriots won't overlook the Lions but a letdown seems inevitable: if the Steelers and Colts games were the AFC playoffs, this should be the bye week before the Super Bowl. And yet we've got a game against a potentially dangerous Lions team tomorrow. I know they won't look past it but with back to back emotional games and a short week, I wonder how well they'll be able to do. I'd love a blowout but I'll take anything that equals a victory--and I worry that we might have to gut one out Thursday before getting a well-deserved 11 day rest after a brutal 3 games in 11 days stretch.

6. Could any game be bigger than Patriots-Jets on Monday night football December 6?: the only thing at stake is everything.

7. In this Thanksgiving season, aren't we glad we're Patriots fans?: it's not just because we win so much but because of how fundamentally stable and solid our team is. How would you like to be a Vikings or Cowboys fan these days? Or a Bengals or Texans fan? Or a Redskins or Titans fan and have to  see all your team's dirty laundry hung out for everyone to see? I love the Patriots in large part because of the way the way they conduct business--privately, behind closed doors, and without any publicity. "Do your job" is one of my favorite phrases, and the Patriots organization does that relentlessly--and they are relentlessly successful as a result. Thank you, Patriots! Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

While we kill time until today's kickoff, I wanted to ask if anybody from Pats Pulpit will be in Detroit this Thursday for the Thanksgiving day game? I live in the area and will be at the game in Section 338 with my wife and young son. You better believe we'll be in our Patriots' gear!

If anyone will be here, look for me at the game. It would be great to meet some fellow Pats fans.

I admit that my first reaction to the Cleveland game last Sunday was: "we'll never win another game." Even late in the season when we face 0-14 Buffalo, I expected that Ryan Fitzpatrick would complete 36 of 37 passes against us and C.J. Spiller would carry 10 times for 250 yards as the Bills notched their first win. But, as always, things have settled down a bit and I've realized that just as the Patriots weren't quite as good as we'd like to think they were in racing off to a 6-1 start, there's also no way they are as bad as they looked last Sunday. 

I see three scenarios for thinking about how the Cleveland game relates to the second half of the season. The first and most negative might be called the Patriots Were Exposed scenario. In this one, New England which had somehow been winning with smoke and mirrors was finally exposed as a team that can't run, can't pass straight, can't stop anybody, and can't even field kickoffs successfully. This scenario suggests that it was only a matter of time before New England was revealed as a sham and that the second half of the season will be filled with Cleveland-like games since the secret is now out about how to beat the Patriots.

Slightly less negative is what we might call the Just Like Last Year scenario in which the Browns game showed that the team is woefully inconsistent but slips into a pattern in which they lose to better teams and--mostly--beat lesser squads. That was pretty much the story of the 2009 Patriots and if the Cleveland game opens the door to that scenario, then expect losses to the Steelers, Colts, Jets,and Packers and wins over the Lions, Bears, Bills, and Dolphins. That would mean a 10-6 record--just like last year--only unlike last year, it almost certainly wouldn't be good enough for another AFC East title and probably not even a wildcard slot.

The final interpretation is the Bump in the Road scenario. This one sees the Cleveland game as just that: a bump in the road that nearly all good teams have sometimes in the parity-mad NFL where on "any given Sunday" (or Monday night or Thursday night and occasionally Saturday night) even good teams--like the 6-1 Patriots last week--just play a terrible game at the same time their opponent is jacked up and playing unbeatable football. In this scenario, last week's loss to Cleveland doesn't really predict this week's game with Pittsburgh or next week's with Indianapolis. It was simply a glitch. If the Patriots bounce back with a win Sunday night over the Steelers--or maybe even if they don't--this model suggests that Patriot fans shouldn't be too concerned with last week's loss. As unpleasant and decisive as it was, it was just one bad game. By itself, it is no more predictive of future failures thas the Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota wins were predictive of success in Cleveland. Under the Bump in the Road scenario, the best thing we can all do is just move on, get ready for the Steelers, and not let that terrible game last week over-determine how the rest of the season will play out.

For my part, I subscribe to the Bump in the Road view. Whether our beloved Patriots win or lose, things are never as bad or as good as we might think in the immediate aftermath of the game.

Just out from Shalise Manza-Young. See here for details. Lots of roster shuffling this week.

What do we think of these moves? Wheatley never looked better than in the first half of the Colts game in November 2008--and almost never played since. Mankins has apparently been staying in pretty good shape, or perhaps they want to make sure he's ready for the Steelers and Colts games coming up by letting him play his way back into shape starting this week in Cleveland.

The Browns game scares me. Truth be told, every game scares me because the NFL offers weekly evidence of just how little records and the standings mean. If San Diego and Minnesota were as bad as their records indicated, why did they push the Patriots to the wire? But the Patriots are catching the Browns at what seems like a bad time for us: Cleveland is coming off a bye week which means they've had lots of time to rest up, heal injuries, and devise a gameplan for the Patriots which will no doubt be full of surprise plays, formations, schemes, and sets. And their last game--a convincing victory against the Saints in New Orleans--should fill them with the confidence that they can play with anybody in this league. The Patriots, meanwhile, coming off three straight highly emotional games go on the road to face the 2-5 Browns in a classic trap game--Ravens, Chargers, Vikings just past, Steelers and Colts next up. All the signs point against the Patriots.

There's one more factor, too. Call it Old Home Week in Cleveland, or if you prefer, call it---hmm---familiarity breeds contempt  knowledge? Not only does this game involve Bill Belichick returning to the site of his first head coaching gig, it also pits New England against an opposing coaching staff that reeks of ties to the Patriots. Everyone knows about Eric Mangini's story. But go through the Browns coaching staff and what do you find? A whole staff with ties to the Belichick-era Patriots: offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (Pats assistant  2000-06 ), defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (Pats assistant 2000-03), special teams coach Brad Seely (Pats assistant 1999-2008), defensive line coach Bryan Cox (Pats player 2001), assistant strength and conditioning coach Rick Lyle (Pats player 2002-03).

The last time New England faced the Browns was 2007 when Romeo Crennel was the head coach and his staff included former Patriots assistants Randy Melvin and Cory Undlin. New England played the Browns in Week 5 that year and it was the closest game the Patriots had in their first eight. They won their first four games in 2007 by margins of 24, 24, 31, and 21 points. They won their next three by 21, 21, and 45 points. But in between they faced the Browns at home and led by just 27-17 late in the game when Randall Gay stripped the ball from a Browns player and raced in for an extra touchdown with just 42 seconds left to pad a 34-17 win in a game that was much closer and tougher than the score indicated.

It's not that Mangini's staff is going to have inside information on the 2010 Patriots. But what they will have in droves is knowledge of how New England scouts, how they prepare, how they practice and how they teach and coach certain techniques and positions. That should help them anticipate what they may see Sunday and give them a good sense of how New England is preparing this week. They will know not necessarily what the Patriots coaches are devising this week but how they're likely doing it, since so many Browns coaches have been in those Patriot staff meetings and tape sessions in the past where teams were scouted, weaknesses found, and gameplans assembled. Belichick may find it strange on Sunday to be in a situation where he has not only coached and trained all the coaches on his own staff but has also coached a lot of the coaches on the other staff, too. Imitation may be the sincerest form of flattery, but in a league where every little thing might make a difference, the familiarity of the Cleveland coaches with the Belichick Way may be one of those small points that add up Sunday to something consequential. I'd bet anything that the Browns coaches circled this game on their calendar when the schedules were released. They'd love nothing more than to show their mentor how much they learned from him--and put that knowledge to use to beat him.

In the end, I think ultimately New England will win Sunday but I also think it will require, like the last several games, 60 minutes of football and I'd be surprised if the margin of victory is more than single digits. But a win is a win is a win--and notching another one Sunday in Cleveland would get the Flying Elvii to the mid-point of the season at 7-1.
And that should make all of us Pats Pulpiteers happy--and calm my own nerves for at least a few more days until the next game comes along to scare me.

Even before Randy Moss was traded, New England's offense was changing. Moss was missing in action in his last game as a Patriot (at Miami) in large part because the offense changed around him and them moved on without him. Tired of throwing long bombs in the hopes that Moss might grab one and restore a little bit of that 2007 magic, Tom Brady and the Patriots changed things up in their offensive attack with great results. Not only are they leading the league in scoring, they've won four straight games and are tied with the Steelers and that team from the Long Island area for the best record in football. But as impressive as those feats are, the most important accomplishment of the 2010 Patriots may be that they have finally gotten closure on the 2007 season and are now over their efforts to emulate that unforgettable season.

It's probably the best thing that could have happened.

When 2007 ended so crushingly, just a few seconds shy of football immortality, it seemed the Patriots shrugged and said, "we'll get them next year." Most of the team and coaching staff returned for 2008 and, armed with a soft schedule and coming off an 18-1 season, there was no reason to change much. But then, things were changed dramatically in the first quarter of the first game when Tom Brady was lost for the season and the Patriots never had a chance to try to duplicate 2007. What happened that year was pretty good, considering, but it was a lost season, one spent marking time until Brady returned. When he did in 2009, the Patriots geared up for one more (one last?) shot at recapturing the glory of two years earlier. But that team never quite put it all together. There were moments to be sure, but Brady struggled a bit after a year out, the wide-open offense didn't work as well without Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney to siphon away defensive attention from Moss and Welker, and no good replacements were ever found for them that year. Throw in inconsistent performances from other units on the team and things didn't turn out so well. The Patriots were pressing all the old buttons, running the old familiar plays and sets, but the 2007 results didn't appear--and they weren't going to.

Continue reading after the jump!

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Like most Patriots fans, I'm feeling much better about the team's chances now than I did at the start of the month. But the next game up scares me. I know San Diego has only a 2-4 record, that they've had some bad losses this year, that they just got beaten by the Rams (the Rams!), that they've lost a lot of talent off last year's team due to trades, injuries, hold-outs, etc. But I have a nagging feeling that this game is going to be much, much harder than it looks on paper. And--after the jump--here's part of the reason why.

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I'm as disappointed as the rest of us in today's result and the awful performance that led to it. But realistically, this might just turn out to be the Patriots' hardest game on the schedule --and it got much more difficult after the Jets laid an egg on Monday Night Football against the Ravens.

I was excited to see New England come out aggressively on that first drive. Last year in the Week 2 loss to New York, I thought the Patriots were a bit psyched out by the fear of the Jets pass rush---not so much the rush itself, but the fear of it. And their playcalling last year in that game reeked of desperation rather than coherent strategy. That's why I loved the start of the game and the mix of runs and passes and the attempt to dictate the tempo and the terms of the game to the Jets. But even on that opening drive there were problems: the holding call that negated that great Fred Taylor run, overshooting Moss in the back of the end zone, and the delay of game that cost Gostkowski a field goal. The next drive, too, was aggressive and put up points and they closed the half with a score. But the second half was a disaster: a sclerotic offense that resembled last year's predictable playcalling and poor execution complete with interceptions, forced throws, and the return of that seeming fear of the Jets defense.

To be fair, the Jets played very well and Mark Sanchez looked like.....well, Tom Brady on most days other than today. Their defense stepped up big and they made the most of the giftwrapped opportunities the Patriots handed them with penalties and poor play. But it's not surprising the Jets played so well. They usually do against us early in the season. And it's even more to be expected after they embarrassed themselves last Monday and then had to spend all week reading and hearing about how they were overrated, couldn't play, were huge disappointments, etc. As is often the case in the NFL when something like that happens, the Jets came out with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. They certainly proved it.

But the circumstances of the Jets loss Monday and the week of intense scrutiny and negativity they endured as a result made what was always going to be a difficult game for the Pats into an almost impossible one. Even if New England had played much, much better, they might have had trouble winning this game. It's terrible to have played such bad football in the second half and to have missed some great opportunities to take a commanding lead in the first half. But even if the Patriots had gotten out to a 14-0 or 10-0 lead, the Jets would have fought back--because they would know that the intensity of the criticism in the media and the internal self-doubt that must have crept into their locker room would be nothing compared to last week if the Pats came in and smoked them.

In short, there's little excuse for such poor play by the Patriots who have to go back to square one now. But they have probably played their toughest game of the year already. Most of the really tough games are at home.  And while the loss is hugely disappointing, this game--if we're honest--was always going to be a hard one to win. Now that it's lost, we can regroup against Buffalo, taking care not to get overconfident but using next week's game as a chance to fix some big problems in anticipation of a Week 4 game at Miami.

Lastly, the other real comfort here in this loss (if there is any comfort) is the fact that almost everybody else in the league seems to be 1-1 as well. We're not that far behind anybody yet and there's time to correct the errors. In some ways, losing badly is almost more bearable than had we played well and lost a nailbiter. Tough losses gnaw at us for weeks. The only thing left to do after the disaster today is put it behind us and get things fixed. The motto in New England this week, as always, will be "Do your job." Let's hope we're in a much better place this time next Sunday evening.

It seems pointless at this early juncture to try to forecast the outcome of all the Patriots games this year. We don't know what kind of team we'll have in three weeks, let alone three months. But it might be possible to look at the first month of the season--the four games the team will play before their bye week--and anticipate both a best case and worst case scenario for each game. Details after the jump.

Sep 12 Cincinnati

Best case: the Patriots allow OchoCinco and T.O. to dominate the media circus in the run-up to the game while quietly taking care of business on the field and spank last year's AFC North champs at home.  Record: 1-0

Worst case: the Patriots allow OchoCinco and T.O. to run wild against a porous defense and have difficulty moving the ball against the Bengals D, beginning the season with a stunning home loss.   Record: 0-1

Sep 19 at New York Jets

Best case: The Patriots have been pointing to this one for a while now and proceed to embarrass Rex (%$^&*())&%#@++) Ryan, the foulmouthed coaching wonder, as Tom Brady shows that the Jets D isn't as invincible as everyone thinks and the team wins a crucial road game in the division.  Record: 2-0

Worst case: The Jets defense is as good as everyone thinks and Tony Dungy will just have to learn to live with Rex's profanity since this victory catapults him to worldwide fame. The Pats can't pressure Sanchez and get picked apart while Brady spends most of the game on his back, recalling a certain unmentionable Super Bowl game a couple years back against that other New York team.  Record: 0-2

Sep 26 Buffalo

Best case: New England reminds everyone that it's the same old Bills and crushes Buffalo again with a balance of runs and passes and an aggressive, pressuring defense that leads people to wonder why we were all so worried in pre-season.  Record: 3-0

Worst case: The Bills somehow find a way to end a losing streak against the Pats that dates to 2003, probably with a late comeback against New England's defense which is now officially a trainwreck.  Record: 0-3 (wait, wait, the Patriots can't lose to the Bills, even when they try--see last year's Monday night opener and the miraculous 25-24 comeback)  Record: 1-2

Oct 4 at Miami

Best case: the Patriots open up a commanding lead in the division with their third straight AFC East victory, two of them on the road as Chad Henne proves no match for the D and Miami's D can't contain Brady and company and the "Wildcat" is nowhere in sight.  Record: 4-0 

Worst case: Chad Henne looks like Peyton Manning (or even Eli Manning) against the Pats pass defense and carves up the secondary for a victory while Miami proves once again that they are the regular opponent that gives Belichick the most trouble (even with all of his great teams, Coach Hoodie is only 11-9 against them).  Record: 1-3

Honestly, given the uncertainties and questions marks facing this team, I could see either scenario playing out or maybe more likely, wins against the Bengals and Bills and losses in the two road games which would put the Patriots in must-win mode in the division the rest of the way. Best case, worst case, or something in between, we should have a pretty good idea of what kind of season we're in for when the bye week rolls around in Week 5.

NFL fans are often of two minds at this time of year--intensely eager for the start of the season and "real" football, but also alternately sad, confused, angry, or disappointed as the final roster falls into place. My guess is that most Patriots fans are in exactly that place: anticipating the Bengals game now less than a week away and trying to figure out how and why the roster includes and excludes the names it does.

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I don't know the whole backstory--except that it sounds messy and unpleasant--but the website allthingsbillbelichick.com is now finished. All Patriot fans and all Belichick fans lost a valuable place in cyberspace for tracking our favorite coach.

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All Patriot fans, along with the organization, have a lot invested in 1st round pick Devin McCourty, an impressive looking cornerback from Rutgers who should (must? will?) emerge in the secondary this year. But how dependent on his development are the Patriots? Is this a case of placing a lot of responsibility on a rookie's shoulders in hopes that he'll come through? Or is it also a case of the Patriots needing--in the worst way--for McCourty to pay both immediate and longlasting dividends to make up for New England's iffy disastrous questionable not-as-good-as-we-hoped-for record of drafting defensive backs recently? 

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In true "read and react" fashion, what follows is a very preliminary reaction to the schedule released tonight. In the weeks ahead, we'll all have a chance to think longer about this but, for what it's worth, here goes. First thought out of the box: our friends at the NFL offices at 280 Park Avenue did us few favors with this schedule. It will take a MUCH better team than the one we had last year to navigate this slate and get back to the playoffs.

• First question: "why do we play the Colts again in Indy..." NO, NO, NO. Not this year. Sorry, that old complaint from the past 17 or so seasons when we've traveled to Indiana is a hard habit to break. It sure will feel strange to have a HOME game against the Colts.
  
• Only one long road trip. At San Diego comes fairly early in Week 7, two weeks after the bye week and wrapped in between two home games. The rest of the road games are basically a tour of the Great Lakes region (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago) with Miami being the second longest trip. After four west coast games in 2008, this schedule is more travel friendly, more like the 2007 slate which didn't have the Patriots leaving the northeast after early November.
  
• Toughest games (mostly) at home. An astonishing six of the eight home opponents were 2009 playoff teams (Bengals, Ravens, Vikings, Colts, Jets, Packers). The only home games vs. non-playoff teams are in the division (Bills, Dolphins). The Patriots will need a little of that old Gillette magic to get through this schedule.
  
• Road schedule looks comparatively easy by contrast. But what wouldn't, measured against that home lineup. Games at the Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, and Steelers are challenging but the Browns, Lions, Bears, and Bills don't seem too forbidding. Imagine the added difficulty if we had to play the home schedule on the road.
• How tough an opener? The Bengals were division champs last year but they fell apart late and they didn't fare well the last time they did well. After their 11-5 record in 2005 they went 8-8, 7-9, 4-11-1 before last year's resurgence. The Bengals might be really good again, but they might revert to form
  
• Potential trap games. Given the tough games, I see several possible trap games where a seemingly "easy" game comes tucked between two seemingly "tough" games. Sep 26 at home v. Buffalo is between road dates with the Jets and Dolphins. Nov 7 v. Cleveland is the middle of a ridiculously tough schedule sandwich that has us playing Ravens, at Chargers, Vikings before and at Steelers, Colts after. That Browns game has "trap" written all over it. Also Dec 12 v. Chicago. It comes on a short week following the Jets Monday-nighter and before a home date with the Packers.
  
• 1 p.m. games. Players and coaches are said to love these because of their predictability--you just wake up, go the stadium and get ready, play the game and then have the rest of the day to treat injuries, rest up, and get back home at a decent time if you play on the road. The Patriots have seven 1 p. m. start times--actually eight if we count the 12:30 Thanksgiving day game (although flex scheduling in weeks 11-17 may change some of those). They also have four 4:15 starts and four prime time slots on Sunday and Monday nights.
• Network breakdown; or expect lots of Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. CBS will cover the Patriots in 11 games, NBC and ESPN twice each, and FOX once. Again, flex scheduling may change some of this.
• Odds and Ends. There's an old NFL adage that teams all want to open at home, close at home, and have no extended road trips. Check. Check. Check. The Patriots do all those things this year and have back to back road games just once (at Browns, at Steelers in early November). All the other games alternate home and road. Also the Patriots will avoid the typical short weeks that follow playing on Monday night since their Oct 4 game with Miami is followed by the bye week. They then get 11 days between the Turkey day game and the Monday nighter with Rex Ryan, but then do have a short week for Chicago.

• Personal slant on the schedule. The Patriots will be visiting Detroit which means that I, a resident of the northern suburbs, will get to watch the Pats in person with my family while enjoying turkey and a glass of holiday cheer. How cool would it be if Professor Todd could bump into Coach Belichick at some point?

That's all for a quick wrap on the 2010 schedule. I know we'll all have plenty of time to kick this around in the next six months. But for now, it's on to the draft and to reviewing Richard Hill's excellent profiles.

I find it hard to believe, but am I the first one here--with the clock on this day running out--to wish Bill Belichick a happy birthday? Our main man turned 58 today, still at the top of his game and in the prime of his career. Hope Bill is having a great day (probably spent it watching tape of college prospects) and has many, many more. I know it's the middle of one of the busiest times of the year, but I hope he got to get away from evaluating footwork and blocking techniques and route-running for at least a few hours to celebrate.

Here's to you, Coach. I'm raising my glass of wine to you.

(Author's Warning: this article contains four times the recommended daily allowance of sarcasm).

If the Jets manage to sign Dolphins pass rusher Jason Taylor, it's all over. The 2010 NFL season is just a formality. In the immortal words of Dennis Green, we should just "crown their asses" and give the Jets the Super Bowl 45 trophy. Given what Gang Green has done this off-season, neither the Patriots nor anyone else should even bother.

Just think how awesome the Jets already are. They have the greatest coach of all time in Rex Ryan. I mean, he's only been on the job for one season but no coach in the history of the game has ever been more brilliant. Just ask him. His accomplishments make Lombardi, Shula, Landry, Noll, Walsh, and Belichick look like amateurs. No one has ever been a better defensive strategist than Ryan and he is such a salesman and a master motivator that players come from all over the NFL just to play for him. He's funny, he's personable. And the greatest defensive mind ever. How the Jets managed to finish second in their division last year is beyond me, but I hear the NFL is investigating to see how it is that its all time greatest finished 9-7. Actually, that record should read 7-7-2---that's seven wins, seven losses, and two games literally surrendered and gift-wrapped and given to the Jets by the Colts and Bengals. While other teams were fighting to get in the playoffs, the Jets just showed up and collected forfeits. But that's another sign of Ryan's dominance. Indy and Cincy were so afraid of having to play his team, they decided to avoid the embarrassment of losing and just gave up. Ryan thought he outcoached two division champions. Rex is like the guy who was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.

But consider how much the Jets have done this off-season. They traded for Antonio Cromartie, the second best cornerback in NFL history behind only the Jets other cornerback, Darelle Revis. Then they picked up La Danian Tomlinson, a monster running back--five years ago. Tomlinson is breaking down, wearing out, and way past his prime (and he tends to disappear at the most inopportune times) but Ryan is such a magician that he'll transform the ex-Charger into the NFL's best this season. All it takes is a little Ryan magic. After all, when you're talking about the greatest coach ever, the usual rules don't apply so instead of continuing his downward slide, Tomlinson will have an MVP season.

They have the game's dominant quarterback in Mark Sanchez. Clearly more poised and accomplished already than Manning, Brady, Brees and his other so-called peers, Sanchez will take his rightful place at the top of the NFL quarterback carousel this year. Second year quarterbacks always win the Super Bowl (at least Tom Brady  did, and whatever Brady did, Sanchez can do better). Brady is pretty good but he never had Rex Ryan as his coach. Imagine how #12 might have done if that had been the case.

And now they might add Jason Taylor to the greatest defense ever, anchored by Bart Scott, the greatest linebacker ever.Taylor hasn't had a great season since 2007 and is just a shell of his once great self, but Ryan will resurrect him and turn him loose, adding him to a defense that is clearly the best in league history. The Steel Curtain Steelers of the 1970s were never this dominant. All they ever did was win four Super Bowls. Rex's Jets managed to get a wild-card berth by comparison. Now, with the draft coming up, it doesn't really matter who the Jets pick. Ryan will turn these draftees into rookies of the year--in fact the whole Jets draft class, as a group, will win the award because Ryan's sheer brilliance will develop these guys--whoever they will be--into champions. 

I really don't see how the Jets could possibly miss. The best coach, the best defense, the best running back and quarterback, the best rookies, the best free agents. All this, AND a brand new stadium (sure to be renamed the Rexdome or something like that). What a great backdrop for their inevitable 19-0 season. It will probably be October before Ryan's team allows a first down; November until an opponent gets in the red zone; December until they are scored upon. They certainly won't be beaten.

At least not by the Patriots  It's true, the last time Rex visited New England, the Jets were destroyed 31-14 by the Patriots. Ryan even whined about how the Patriots ran up the score. (Note to Rex: Dude, that running up the score accusation is SO 2007). Ryan should have just kissed Belichick's rings instead. But  Belichick and the Patriots will probably forfeit both games this year to the Jets just to save themselves the certain humiliation.

At least we Patriot fans can take solace in knowing that none of rest of league will do any better against New York. I mean, there's only one Rex Ryan and the Jets have him. As they say on Sports Center, "you can't stop him, you can only try to contain him." We can just hope that he'll be merciful, that he'll occasionally pull Taylor and Tomlinson and Cromartie and Sanchez from the games, and that he'll allow us to save our collective faces this year as they lock up the first ever 19-0 record. After all, the Pats--not to mention the Colts and the Saints last year--know how easy that is to do, right?

Yes, Jason Taylor will be the final piece. If--should we say when?--he gives in to Ryan's charm and salesmanship and changes from a teal uniform to a green one, there's no holding back Rex's juggernaut. It's all certain to work out this way. The Jets will do everything right and win every game and every new player will be the best ever at their position.

It's all a done deal.

At least that's how it must look right now in the fevered brain of the Greatest Coach Ever. Who could have known, Rex must be thinking:

This head coaching thing is so easy. I don't know why my dad had so much trouble with it. I've only done it one year and I'm already the best of all time. From here on in it's just planning victory parade routes and writing my Hall of Fame acceptance speech (which will be the best ever given, no doubt) and then my memoirs (which will win a Pulitzer) and then getting my own TV show (the HBO training camp show on the Jets will be the most popular ever and they will decide just to stay with the Jets annually--why bother showing anyone else?), and then sitting back watching the eventual induction of all 45 of the 2010 New York Jets in the HOF along with me. Toward the end of my career, they'll rename the team "The New York Rexes." After all, if Paul Brown can have a team named after him, why can't I? What the hell did Paul Brown ever accomplish in this game anyhow?

Yes, life must be pretty good right now for the presumptive champions. There's only one small thing, one tiny insignificant detail that could derail Rex Ryan's wet dream off-season fantasy and that's the reality of the brutal, lengthy, intense NFL season which always has a way of puncturing the greatest of expectations and in which the other 31 teams do all they can to crush your hopes to so many tiny flecks of dust.

Enjoy yourself now, Rex and the Jets. It's great to be the league's undisputed champions--for March and April. But it's a long way from now until February. And we'll see if all your roster additions and changes still look so brilliant then--if you're still playing. Which presumes that you even make the playoffs in the first place.

You've got to admit it. These names definitely sound even more like a law firm than BenJarvus Green-Ellis by himself (sorry, Benjy--but you can keep the nickname). As we all know, of course, these gentlemen comprise not a law practice but rather the names of the Patriots "red-shirts" who missed 2009 on Injured Reserve. And these same three hold some of the keys to how well New England rebounds from a disappointing 2009 campaign. If LB Tyrone McKenzie, OLB Shawn Crable, and WR Brandon Tate can a) stay healthy; and b) approach their potential (all were 3rd round draft picks in 2008 or 2009); each or all of them could contribute significantly to the Patriots at positions of greatest team need. I've created a best case/worst case scenario for all three.

Shawn Crable:

Best case: becomes a presence, a pass-rusher, a starter, part-time starter, or at least a key part of the rotation at outside linebacker/defensive end (however he ends up being used), plays a lots of snaps, gives the Patriots lots of sacks, hurries, pressures, etc. and shows us all why New England took him in the 3rd round.

Worst case: gets hurt again, spends 3rd straight season on IR. Or, stays healthy but plays more like his friend and former Michigan teammate Pierre Woods than like Mike Vrabel or Willie McGinest.

Brandon Tate:

Best case: becomes a #3 receiver like Stallworth or Gaffney in 2007, stretching the field, giving Brady a mid-to-deep target, and taking some defensive attention away from Moss.

Worst case: makes little contribution as a wideout, helps only as a returner, and fails to rise above the Aiken/Stanback level at wide receiver.

Tyrone McKenzie:

Best case: becomes a starter (or alternates with Gary Guyton) at inside LB opposite Mayo, solidifies the interior defense, and does what he was drafted to do: make lots and lots of tackles.

Worst case: makes only minimal contributions so that each week will be a coin flip as to whether he's activated or inactive for the games.

If all three players come close to their best case scenarios, New England will benefit enormously since all play positions where improvement is required. And if they contribute as hoped and join the 2010 draft class and the other returning players, the Patriots get better and deeper at their positions of greatest need.

If they don't get it done this year, Tate and McKenzie probably will get another year to prove themselves. But if Crable gets injured again or fails to contribute meaningfully, he may be done. The Patriots may conclude that he simply lacks the necessary physique to play in the NFL.

Here's hoping that all (but at least one) of these "redshirts" breaks through in 2010. Significant improvement of the kind we all hope to see may depend on it.

With the new and improved prime time draft less than three weeks away, the NFL nation is understandably preoccupied. But, since Richard Hill has done such a great job of covering potential Patriot prospects from the college ranks--thanks for the great profiles and links-- and since Marima, Comedic.sans and SlotMachinePlayer have us covered on everything else (tip of the cap to you all), I'll just offer a short change of pace and suggest some brief diversions. 

Various, scattered thoughts on this April Saturday morning:

• Why do football announcers always say that blitzes--and blitzes alone--are "dialed up?" Think about it. How many times have you heard announcers say "The Steelers dialed up a blitz that time," or "[name of defensive coordinator] went to his playbook and dialed up a blitz?" I've been watching on NFL network the Sunday replays of games from the 2009 season and was struck by regularity of this phrase. No matter the network or announcer or the game involved, it seems blitzes are always being dialed up. It's not like it's only Troy Aikman doing it; it seems universal. Blitzes are never called, sent in, ordered, called for, or anything else. Always "dialed up." (I guess that's what those banks of sideline telephones are for). But notice that nothing else in the game is ever "dialed up." Nobody ever dials up a screen pass or a flanker reverse. No announcer ever says "The Patriots dialed up a dime package on that play." Why DO announcers say that blitzes are dialed up but don't say that about any other play or set or play call? Inquiring (draft-numbed) minds want to know.

• I'm absolutely sure the Patriots will win the AFC championship next season. Why? Improved pass rush? Less predictable offense? Special insider knowledge about the draft? Nope. It's all about recent history. Consider the list of AFC champions since 2004:

2004: Patriots

2005: Steelers

2006: Colts

2007: Patriots

2008: Steelers

2009: Colts

Anybody else see a pattern here? Clearly, the Pats, Steelers, and Colts take turns winning the AFC in a nice, logical sequence. So 2010 is obviously going to be the Patriots' year. And don't bet against the Steelers in 2011. Sorry, Rex Ryan. You don't belong in this conversation.

• Sorry, I thought I had a third random thought--but I can't seem to dial it up just now. (You know you saw that one coming).
  

Free agency is in full swing, the draft is just around the corner, and then it will be time for the early, early, early pre-season predictions for the 2010 NFL season. But already we have a pretty good idea of who some of the early favorites for next year will be. And the New England Patriots will likely be in an unfamiliar place as those predictions get rolled out. I, for one, think that's a good thing. The reasons after the jump.

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Mike Reiss linked today to an open letter to Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick suggesting  that we go outside the current staff and instead hire new offensive and defensive coordinators from outside the organization. The argument--and it's certainly valid and one I respect--is that the only way to return the Patriots to the Super Bowl is to hire Super Bowl-caliber coordinators like we had with Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis.

I understand that argument but I'm not sure I agree with it. Furthermore, I'd be very surprised if Belichick did that.

The great lure of going outside the current staff and bringing in outside coordinators is the possibility of getting a "name" coach to come in and run the offense and/or the defense. Other teams do this all the time. Last year, for example, the Packers hired Dom Capers away from the Patriots to run their defense. It can work very well, but there are drawbacks. Sometimes more subtle staff changes--and more time--can make just as big a difference. Since the Patriots have had a mass exodus of coordinators since 2004 (Weis and Crennel, then Eric Mangini, then Josh McDaniels, now Dean Pees), Belichick has promoted younger coaches from within to replace them. McDaniels replaced Weis, Mangini took Crennel's place, Pees replaced Mangini. McDaniels became a stud coordinator and quarterback coach and a hot head coaching commodity. It's hard to argue that Pees was bad, although it seems clear that if he did a better job, he'd still be here. But it seems everyone agrees that Bill O'Brien's first year as primary play caller (without the OC title) was uneven at best.

Now, both coordinator jobs are open. What will the Pats do? What should they do?

It would surprise me if Belichick goes outside the current staff for new coordinators. Hiring, let's say, Mike Martz to run the offense has a certain appeal. Martz is experienced, is widely recognized as a great offensive thinker, and could certainly add new dimensions to the Pats offense. But the problem with hiring Martz or someone else already established is that they usually have their own systems, their own schemes and favorite plays and formations which might--or might not--fit a new team. An outside offensive coordinator would have to get used to the Patriots personnel and adjust his system to this roster. It would mean a third straight year with a new play caller which would be further disruptive to an offense struggling to find its rhythm. Do the Patriots dare spend another season of offensive turmoil when their core players are either in their prime or nearing the end of their prime career years?

It may not be popular but I think the best choice would be to promote Bill O'Brien. On the assumption that he would never have been hired and then promoted (coaching assistant in 2007, WR coach in 2008, QB coach in 2009) if he weren't talented and smart, perhaps what he needs is simply to learn from last year's experience. He should be much better at play-calling now that he's had a season of experience and an off-season coming up in which to diagnose his mistakes and correct them. Giving O'Brien a chance to smooth out his play-calling and establish a better rapport with Brady and the other offensive players might make a greater impact on improving the offense than hiring someone new from the outside.

Over on defense, Matt Patricia is also labeled an up-and-comer, someone likely to get a DC gig with another team if the Pats pass him over. He, too, is considered plenty smart and as a member of the staff since 2004. Patricia might provide a different temperament and some new strategic approaches to next year's defense. But since he's very familiar with the personnel, he can also fit schematic changes to the players on the roster and not try to retro-fit some new scheme to a young defense, which may need more experience to build on 2009 and become better.

Unless Belichick dramatically reverses what he has done in the past, he'll promote from within for coordinators. And that might be the best way for the Pats to proceed, rather than bringing in new guys and new schemes.

But it can be argued that the coaching staff does need augmentation. We could say that there are too many young players to teach, too much to do week to week in both coaching up players and in devising and installing game plans for the comparatively small staff the Patriots have to manage fully. With that in mind, let me suggest what the Patriots could do to bolster their staff.

Defense: promote Patricia to coordinator and let him craft the plans and call the games. How about moving Pepper Johnson up, too? Johnson could be named assistant coordinator and perhaps even associate head coach. This would be a clear promotion and would help Johnson as he climbs the coaching ladder, plus he could make valuable contributions to Patricia in shaping the defensive plan. That would leave both the linebacking and the D-line in need of some help, however. What about promoting coaching assistant Patrick Graham (who played defensive line in college and coached it at Richmond before going to work for Weis at Notre Dame) to assistant defensive line coach? Promote coaching assistant Brian Flores to assistant linebacker coach since he played the position at Boston College. This would give Johnson help coaching the defensive line and Patricia help with the linebackers. Need still more help? Might the Pats bring back 2004 coaching assistant Cory Undlin to work with the linebackers, too? Undlin left in 2005 to join Crennel in Cleveland, eventually ending up as secondary coach in 2008 before spending last season on Jack Del Rio's staff in Jacksonville as a defensive assistant. A position coaching gig with the Pats would be a promotion for Undlin and would give the defensive staff the best of both worlds: a coach who was trained in the New England system (and on Belichick buddy Pat Hill's staff at Fresno State before that) but who has also been out on his own for five years, working in other systems, watching other coordinators, learning from other methods. This staff--with secondary coach Josh Boyer returning as well-- would be a great mix of experience and youth, and of some new thinking that is still grounded in knowledge of both the Patriot system and the team's roster.

Offense: There may not be a need to add anybody here, although--in keeping with the theme I established with the defensive staff--what about promoting coaching assistant Brian Ferentz to assistant offensive line coach? Ferentz  could work with, and learn from, Dante Scarnecchia--possibly the best O-line coach in the league. But Ferentz, who played O-line for his dad at Iowa, could also help Scarnecchia tutor the many young linemen the team has now and might draft in April. As for other coaches, here's an intriguing possibility for an inside/outside hire: Scot Loefler of Florida as quarterbacks coach, leaving O'Brien to concentrate on game-planning and play-calling. Loefler was a grad assistant at Michigan when Brady played, and I believe Brady has credited Loefler with helping him develop. Loefler went on to be QB coach at Michigan, spent a year with the Lions gaining NFL experience, and is now at Florida as QB coach under Belichick's great friend and close offensive advisor, Urban Meyer. The coaching situation there is unsettled. Meyer resigned, then un-resigned, and it's not clear what that means for day-to-day coaching duties. Steve Addazio was the OC and the coach-designate when Meyer was supposed to be leaving with, one would presume, Loefler moving up to OC. But if the situation there is iffy and should the Patriots come calling, maybe Loefler could be lured away. He already has a comfort level and long-time relationship with Brady and he apprenticed last year under Meyer from whom Belichick regularly borrows offensive ideas. So, although he's an outsider, he's an outsider with excellent inside connections.

I obviously have no way of knowing how likely any of these scenarios are. But if these happen--and I don't think any of them are too far-fetched-- it would give the Pats coaching staff continuity and stability and the chance for current coaches to grow in their positions while also providing additional coaching depth and the potential for adding some fresh ideas and perspectives. In other words, all the benefits of hiring outside coaches but without shaking up the staff too much or creating too much counterproductive disruption.

I'm going to do what few sportswriters and sportscasters (I am neither) ever do--revisit one of my predictions that proved to be way off the mark, admit I was wrong, and try to figure out why. In my very first post  on this site last March, I boldly predicted that the 2009 Pats would make the great 2007 team look like the rather pedestrian 2008 team. Boy, was I wrong. And in trying to figure out why I was, I've come to a few conclusions about the 2009 team.

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The answers in  brief: yes, and maybe. More below.

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No, I don't really mean THE Donte Stallworth, the actual player. We know where he went, how things fell apart for him after his one-and-done season in New England in 2007: a disappointing, injury riddled season in Cleveland and then the horrible incident in Florida where, after a night of drinking, he struck and killed a pedestrian with his car, leading to a jail sentence, a suspension from the NFL commissioner, and the possible end of his football career. What I mean is Donte Stallworth, the type: stretch-the-field, gamebreaking 3rd receiver threat who I always thought was an unsung star who helped make the 2007 Patriots passing attack soar. The Pats have never quite replaced him and the absence of a Stallworth-type this year has been especially noticeable, even moreso now that the Saints figured out that double covering both Randy Moss and Wes Welker left the Patriots handcuffed in the passing game.

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Back to basics: Blocking. Tackling. Passing. Catching. Route-running. Defending the seams. After a beatdown like the Patriots suffered Monday night, they need to go back to the fundamentals and clean up some major, major problems. It wasn't just the defensive breakdowns, it wasn't just the offensive breakdowns--it was everything. You have to go back to December 10, 2006 to find the last time a Tom Brady-led Patriots team got beat by 21 points like tonight. It was brutal, and there's so much to fix--and a short week coming up to prepare for a road game in the division at Miami.

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The endless criticism and the piling on Bill Belichick has received about the 4th and 2 call has now reached a fever pitch. From coast to coast, pundits, fans, former players, former coaches and others have fallen all over themselves to attack the choice to go for it instead of punting. But the intensity and the sheer number of stories, column space, bandwidth, and on-air time devoted to this play call--one play call among the thousands made in the NFL this weekend--is not just limited to criticism of the call or of Belichick. Rather, it taps into, springs out of, and reflects a much deeper, longstanding hatred of the Patriots and their leader.

We've seen similar crescendos of Patriot-bashing like this three times in recent years. In 2007, the first wave was touched off by "Spygate," which dominated--I mean absolutely DOMINATED--the sports world for the week after the story broke, and never fully died down the rest of the season. Just as it was starting to fade came the utterly baseless John Tomase story (writtten and, incredibly, published without a shred of evidence to support it and later completely discredited and retracted) on the eve of Super Bowl 42 about New England's alleged videotaping of a Rams Super Bowl walkthrough practice in 2002. That story coupled with the Patriots' stunning loss to the Giants ushered in round two of the "pile on the Patriots" as people gloated while mocking the Pats, and bashing the team yet again. And now, after the fateful call and the reversal of fortune that happened Sunday, there is once more an undertone to the howls and rants being directed at Belichick and the Patriots this week. Welcome to the third wave of Patriot-hating---fast becoming the NFL world's favorite pastime.

Each of these three waves has been intensified by a fierce, deep-seated hatred--I don't think that's too strong a word--for the Patriots and Belichick. You can't get upset by things or people for which you have no feelings. And if the Patriots were your generic, run-of-the-mill NFL team, the kind that has a fan base but that never causes fans of other teams to foam at the mouth with rabid hatred, each of these waves would have been much smaller, much less intense, and would have petered out on the shore of the football world and washed back out to sea in the same newscycle. (Seriously, is there anyone out there who sits up at late at night cursing and thinking up new ways to hate the Jaguars? or the Lions? or the Seahawks? Of course not, why would you?).

But the Patriots are different and these great volleys of animosity coming their way now (as during "spygate" and the Super Bowl loss) are visceral and emotional, the products of a well-stoked, long-held agressive hatred of the Flying Elvii and the one in the hoodie. The intensity and the sheer amount of the hating, coming fromso many angles, leads me to wonder why the Patriots and their coach inspire such vitriol. To put the question most simply, why do so many people hate the Patriots?

There are good friends of mine--people who are rational and smart and sophisticated, people who hold down demanding professional positions, have homes and marriages and children, people who are delightful, charming companions and trusted friends--who get almost literally twisted up with rage if I mention the Pats or Belichick. These are people who aren't violent or dangerous, who are kind and decent, who probably don't have mean things to say about too many people. But when I talk about the Patriots suddenly the anger rises and  and they become transformed. 

So, again, I ask why do people hate Belichick and the Patriots? I'm a historian, not a psychologist, so I have no special training or insight to answer this question but I'll take a stab at it and offer a few possible reasons and invite readers to do the same. Here goes:

• Envy of their won-lost record and championships When the Pats upset the Rams in Super Bowl 36, they were the cute underdogs, not the bully on the block. But then they came back and won another title and then another and then went 16-0. Even when they lost Tom Brady and half their starting defense, they still went 11-5. It's almost unthinkable that this team could ever pull the occasional 4-12 record like most teams. Somewhere along the line, the Patriots went from underdog to top dog and then stayed at or near the top. And that's not an appealing quality when fans of most teams see their hometown favorites rise and fall and settle near the vast middle of the NFL. The fact that the Patriots just win and win and win makes them hard to love (for most) and easy to hate.

But the Colts always go 12-4 and have for years and who hates them? There's no better, more intense rivalry than Patriots-Colts but I don't think we Patriots fans hate the Colts (the Jets, maybe, but not the Colts). Who does? Now, it could be that because the Colts have that whole Eagle Scout/Sunday school picnic image going for them,or because they've only played in one Super Bowl and won only a single title (in Indy), they seem less threatening than the Patriots. Still, the Patriots' record and titles alone can't entirely explain the Patriot hatred or there would be such a thing as Colts hatred, too. So, perhaps it comes down to:

• Resentment of their secrecy and methods Now we're getting closer. The Patriots are notorious for witholding information and for shrouding their entire operation in secrecy. Getting inside that wall, I'm told, is nearly impossible and the Patriots never, ever, ever air their dirty laundry in public. There are no leaks in this organization and what happens in Foxboro seems to stay in Foxboro. Beyond that, the Pats seem not to care what people think of them. Their public image is not a favorable one and it must drive haters to distraction that the Pats don't seem to care that people don't like them, that public hostility and hatred bounces off this team. Call them the Teflon Patriots--no criticism sticks to them. They probably feed off of that and turn it to their advantage. "Never complain or explain," could be the the organization's motto, and they've won games and championships without opening up their locker room or their organization to outsiders, keeping all they do veiled under a thick blanket of secrecy and mystery.
  

Again, most teams try not to reveal much but the Patriots go to extraordinary lengths to withold even the most basic information. The sense that they're keeping something to themselves, that they're so stingy with something as straightforward as who's calling the plays, probably strikes many as proof that the Pats are up to no good. Secrecy added to pre-existing suspicion adds up to conspiracy in the eyes of many. The Patriots feed this with their hyper-closed method of operating, never caring that their stony silence is being misconstrued or that it feeds the hatred many have. If it does't help them win games--and popularity with fans or the sports media never does--the Patriots don't care, and a team that operates with such little regard for public opinion is bound to be the object of scorn and hatred of those who would like to think their (low) opinion would have an effect on the Patriots.

But it's hard to sustain an intense hatred for an large organization or for an ever-changing roster of players. To grow and flourish and sustain itself, a great wave of hatred needs a single, fixed, constant target. And if that single target is both wildly successful and maddeningly secretive, misunderstood and not the least concerned with correcting those misunderstandings, and completely dismissive of public opinion, all the better. Further, if that single target also regularly flouts conventional wisdom in a game as driven by conventional behavior as football, then this target becomes almost the holy grail--or, if you prefer a different metaphor, a perfect storm--of rage and animosity. And so, the third reason for the intensity of Patriot-hating:

• Bill Belichick's utterly unconventional methods and actions, coupled with his other-worldly success and secrecy, and the way it leaves many more conventional people deeply threatened I think this is the real key, because each of the three waves of Patriot-hatred are personally tied to Belichick. "Spygate" was about his coaching practices and although he apologized, took full responsibility, and paid a staggering fine, many believed that he wasn't "contrite" enough, that he didn't apologize sincerely, or that he was thumbing his nose at the conventional NFL establishment which has long tolerated stealing signs and snap counts but seemingly draws the line at high-tech taping--blue-collar crime is acceptable but not white-collar crime, as several have noted. The Super Bowl loss was also tied to Belichick and the loss was nearly overshadowed by the media furor over his leaving the field with a second left on the clock (after he congratulated the Giants coach), an act which was again deemed an affront to all that was good and decent and, once more, was deeply unconventional by NFL standards. And Sunday night, the current wave of hatred was kicked off with his statistically probable yet convention-defying decision to go for it on 4th and 2. In each instance Belichick did things his way, dared to defy the conventional wisdom of how coaches should coach or conduct themselves. Add to this the other things that make Belichick so clearly a breed apart from the vast majority of people who have had the title of NFL coach: he doesn't look like the stereotypical tough-guy coach, he went to college at Wesleyan where he majored in economics, and he never played pro football. And yet here he is, a deeply unconventional man long at the pinnacle of his profession, one dominated by people who are ruled by convention, who always do things by the book, who would never even think about, say, going for it on 4th down deep in their own territory. The fact that Belichick is so successful despite challenging nearly every bit of conventional behavior or wisdom--the fact that he dares to be so different and cares not at all what anyone else thinks of him--is a thing that could only threaten and anger those whose lives depend on following the conventions and caring only about what others think of them.
  

So this latest wave of Patriot hatred grows from at least three related sources, all of them united by the man in the middle of the storm and embedded in each of the causes. This is the latest outbreak of the intense Patriot-hating that we've seen before. It will ebb, but then it will rise again at some point in the future, whenever the Patriots win another big game, or another championship, or whenever Bill Belichick defies conventional wisdom in the arch-conventional NFL. Patriot-hating has been with us for awhile and it isn't going away anytime soon. All we can try to do, as fans, is to understand the sources from which it springs and learn to shrug it off--just like the guy in the hoodie does.