So I just re-watched the last 12 minutes of the UofL/Florida game. Something happened in the technical foul that caught my eye. Karl Hess performed the most over-the-top dramatic Technical you could imagine: VERY aggressive "T" signal and then a VERY aggressive pointing at Pitino. These types of histrionics literally reminded me of the WWF.

Think about it -- all of the refs who try to be the star of the show (you know who they are) are always playing to the crowd with way overly-dramatic signals. Just envision all of those times where there's a loose ball out of bounds and the refs makes a way-too-dramatic gesture that the ball is going the other direction. Or, think about all the charge/block calls that are called in an overly-dramatic way.

I seriously believe that if the NCAA put the kibosh on these WWF-style histrionics that you would put an end to all of these goofballs and their arbitrary technicals and play-to-the-crowd-one-way-or-another calls.

Thanks everyone for playing and congrats to guardcard! Looking forward to the editorial he/she writes about.

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Here's the updated standings. Here's the crazy thing: IF Cincinnati wins tomorrow, that will mark the second straight year where NOBODY in the tournament pool picked the winner. Last year, nobody picked UConn. Crazy.

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How's this for irony? Remember when UofL lost to Notre Dame this year and everyone was beside themselves? Fast forward to March and now UofL is playing the #2 seed Irish in the semi's of the BET. Weird.

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Congrats to the eight people who have a perfect bracket thusfar.

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Ahhh....the Present

- Vs. UConn in the Big East Tournament as the #1 seed

- Thursday afternoon in New York

- At the Garden

- Orange everywhere

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Thanks everyone for participating -- especially on late notice. We had 88 entries on only a few hours of notice. For the championship, Syracuse is the favorite with 30 picks out of the 88. Behind Syracuse, the favorite picks for winning the championship are Marquette (19), Louisville (19), Georgetown (11) and Notre Dame (9). As a point of reference, nobody selected UConn to with the Big East Tournament last year.

Now, onto the standings after Day 1....

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There's another Big East Tournament pool this year. Like last year, the scoring system will have a twist because otherwise the format of the tournament doesn’t encourage risk taking (ie, you already know for sure one team playing in each 3rd round game). As a result, here is the modified scoring system:

1. Round 1: you will receive points equal to 50% of the winning team's seed if you get it correct. For example, if you choose Providence (and they win), you will get 7.5 points.

2. Rounds 2-3: each time you get a game correct, you will receive points equal to that team's seed. For example, if you choose Depaul to win their 2nd and 3rd games (and they do), you get 32 total points for these two rounds (in addition to 8 points from round 1).

3. Semifinals: For each semifinal game you choose correctly, you will get the greater of (i) the team's seed or (ii) 8 points.

4. Final: If you choose the winner correctly, you will receive 16 points.

The winner gets to write 1,000 words on any Big East or NCAA Tournament-related topic that they choose with an auto-bump to the front page (Note: this still needs to be approved by CC brass).

To submit your picks, respond below in chronological order using the Big East Tournament bracket here. For example, if you were going to default to choosing the highest seeds, your submission would look like this:

1. Connecticut

2. St. John's

3. Seton Hall

4. Rutgers

5. West Virginia

6. Georgetown

7. Louisville

8. South Florida

9. Syracuse

10. Cincinnati

11. Marquette

12. Notre Dame

13. Syracuse

14. Marquette

15. Syracuse

VERY IMPORTANT: It will help me tremendously if everyone uses the same format for the team names to submit their picks (eg, not putting " 'Eers" if you choose West Virginia to win). Please use the following proper names when submitting your picks (ie, "Syracuse" instead of "Cuse" and "Villanova" instead of "Nova"). The only questionable ones are Connecticut (instead of UConn), South Florida (instead of USF) and St. John's (WITH apostrophe). Also, please spell "Cincinnati" correctly. Thanks in advance -- doing this will save me a ton of time.

GOOD LUCK!

Also, the updates likely won't be as frequent this year but I'll do my best.

• If all 6 of the remaining games have a 50/50 probability of either team winning, Louisville has a 56% chance of making the BCS and is the most likely team to make it.  In other words, Louisville will make the BCS in 36 of the 64 scenarios involving the remaining 6 games.  Below are the probabilities of each team making the BCS in the "50/50 chance" format  for the remaining 6 games:  

1. Louisville (56%),

2. Rutgers (19%)

3. Pitt (9%)

4. Cincinnati (9%)

5. WVU (6%)

• However, it makes more sense to probability-weight the outcomes of the remaining games.  As such, I've assessed the following probabilities to the remaining games:

1.  Pitt @ WVU  - [60% WVU]

2.  Rutgers @ UConn  - [60% Rutgers]

3.  Cincinnati @ Syracuse  - [60% Cincinnati]

4.  WVU @ USF  - [60% WVU]

5.  Syracuse @ Pitt  - [60% Pitt]

6.  UConn @ Cincinnati  - [60% Cincinnati]

• Based on these probability weightings, Louisville remains the favorite to make the BCS, but has its probability lowered to 49%.  Below are the probability-weighted chances of each team making the BCS:

1. Louisville (49%),

2. Rutgers (23%)

3. WVU (13%)

4. Cincinnati (9%)

5. Pitt (6%)

Below are the specific scenarios for each team to make the BCS:

Louisville

1.     If WVU beats Pitt, Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

OR

2.     If Pitt beats WVU, (a) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (b) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

Rutgers

1.     (a) Rutgers must beat UConn (@UConn) AND (b) WVU must lose one of their remaining two games (vs. Pitt or @USF) AND (c) Cincinnati and/or Pittsburgh must win both of their remaining two games AND (d) Rutgers must remain higher than Cincinnati, Pittsburgh or Louisville in the BCS standings (depending on the tie scenario).

WVU

1.     (a) WVU must win both of their remaining games (vs. Pitt and @USF) AND (b) Cincinnati must win both of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (c) WVU must remain higher than Cincinnati and Louisville in the BCS standings (depending on the tie scenario).

Cincinnati

1.     (a) Cincinnati must win BOTH of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (b) WVU must lose one of their remaining two games (vs. Pitt or @USF) AND (c) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn).

Pitt

1.     (a) Pitt must win BOTH of their remaining games (@WVU and vs. Syracuse) AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

Louisville

Option #1:  Louisville WINS against USF (@USF) AND:

1.     (a)  WVU beats Pitt AND (b) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

OR

2.     (a) Pitt beats WVU AND (b) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

Option #2:  Louisville LOSES against USF (@USF) AND:

1.     (a) Pitt beats WVU AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose to Syracuse (@Syracuse) AND (d) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (e) Cincinnati must lose to UConn (@Cincinnati) AND (f) Louisville must remain higher than Pitt in the BCS standings.

OR

2.     (a) WVU beats Pitt AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose to Syracuse (@Cincinnati) AND (d) WVU must lose to USF (@USF) AND (e) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (f) Cincinnati must lose to UConn (@Cincinnati).

Rutgers

Option #1:  Rutgers WINS against UConn (@UConn) AND:

1.     (a)  Louisville must lose to USF (@USF) AND (b) WVU must lose one of their remaining two games (vs. Pitt or @USF).

OR

2.     (a) Cincinnati must win BOTH of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (b) WVU must lose to USF (@USF) AND (c) if Louisville beats USF (@USF), Rutgers must remain higher than Cincinnati and Louisville in the BCS standings.

OR

3.     (a) Pitt must beat WVU (@WVU) AND (b) Cincinnati must win BOTH of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (c) Rutgers must remain higher than Cincinnati in the BCS standings AND (d) if Pitt beats Syracuse, Rutgers must remain higher than Louisville in the BCS standings.

OR

4.     (a) Pitt must win BOTH of their remaining games (@WVU and vs. Syracuse) AND (b) Rutgers must remain higher than Louisville and Pitt in the BCS standings.

Option #2:  Rutgers LOSES against UConn (@UConn) AND:

1.     (a)  Louisville must lose to USF (@USF) AND (b) Pitt must beat WVU (@WVU) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one, and only one, of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn) AND (d) WVU must lose to USF (@USF) AND (e) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (f) Rutgers must remain higher than Cincinnati in the BCS standings AND (g) if UConn beats Cincinnati (@Cincinnati), Rutgers must remain higher than Louisville, Pitt and UConn in the BCS standings.

WVU

Option #1:  WVU WINS against Pitt (@WVU) AND:

1.     (a)  Louisville must lose to USF (@USF) AND (b) WVU must beat USF (@USF).

OR

2.     (a) Louisville must lose to USF (@USF) AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Pitt must beat Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (d) Cincinnati must lose one, and only one, of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

OR

3.     (a) Louisville must lose to USF (@USF) AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one, and only one, of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn) AND (d) if Pitt loses to Syracuse, WVU must remain higher than Louisville in the BCS standings.

OR

4.     (a) Louisville must lose to USF (@USF) AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose to Syracuse (@Syracuse) AND (d) Pitt must beat Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (e) Cincinnati must lose to UConn (@Cincinnati) AND (f) WVU must remain higher than Louisville in the BCS standings.

OR

5.     (a) Cincinnati must beat Syracuse (@Syracuse) AND (b) WVU must beat USF (@USF) AND (c) Cincinnati must beat UConn (@Cincinnati) AND (d) WVU must remain higher than Louisville in the BCS standings AND (e) if UConn beats Rutgers (@UConn), WVU must remain higher than Cincinnati in the BCS standings

Option #2:  WVU LOSES against Pitt (@WVU) AND:

1.  (a) USF must beat Louisville (@USF) AND (b) UConn must beat Rutgers (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one, and only one, of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn) AND (d) WVU must beat USF (@USF) AND (e) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (f) WVU must remain higher that Louisville and Pitt in the BCS standings AND (g) if Cincinnati beats UConn (@Cincinnati), WVU must remain higher than Cincinnati and Rutgers in the BCS standings.

 Cincinnati

 1.     (a) Cincinnati must win BOTH of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (b) WVU must lose one of their remaining two games (vs. Pitt or @USF) AND (c) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn).

Pitt

1.     (a) Pitt must win BOTH of their remaining games (@WVU and vs. Syracuse) AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

UConn

Can tie for the Big East championship, but is eliminated from any BCS contention (barring a miraculous increase in their BCS standings).

Let's sum this thing up.

Option #1:  UofL WINS against South Florida AND:

1. (a)  WVU beats Pitt AND (b) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

OR

2.  (a) Pitt beats WVU AND (b) Pitt must lose vs. Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

Option #2:  UofL LOSES against South Florida AND:

1. (a) Pitt beats WVU AND (b) Rutgers must lose vs. UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose vs. Syracuse (@Syracuse) AND (d) Pitt must lose vs. Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (e) Cincinnati must lose vs. UConn (@Cincinnati) AND (f) Louisville must remain higher than Pitt in the BCS standings.

OR

2.  (a) WVU beats Pitt AND (b) Rutgers must lose vs. UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose vs. Syracuse (@Cincinnati) AND (d) WVU must lose vs. USF (@USF) AND (e) Pitt must lose vs. Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (f) Cincinnati must lose vs. UConn (@Cincinnati).

I read with great interest the variety of scenarios that UofL has to make it to a BCS game.  However, I think it is much more complicated.  I'll try to be as succinct as possible.  There are seven games left in the Big East season (listed below) and they all matter:

1.  Louisville @ USF

2.  Pitt @ WVU

3.  Rutgers @ UConn

4.  Cincinnati @ Syracuse

5.  WVU @ USF

6.  Syracuse @ Pitt

7.  UConn @ Cincinnati

Because there are 7 games left, that means that there are 128 different scenarios how they can turn out (2 to the 7th power).

Here's a basic summary of the relevant facts:

1.  Big East Tiebreakers:   (1) If two teams tie, tiebreaker is H2H result;

(2) If three teams tie, it goes to a mini-conference where the best record wins.  If still tied in the mini-conference, the highest BCS ranking wins;

(3) If four teams tie, it goes to a mini-conference where the best record wins.  If still tied in the mini-conference, the highest BCS ranking wins (among the teams with the best records in the mini-conference).

(4) The Big East is SILENT if there is more than a four-team tie.

2.  UConn:  UConn is mathematically eliminated from the BCS, however they can still tie for the conference crown and can cause chaos in the Big East BCS process.  

3.  Up to Six Teams Can Tie:  There are two scenarios where SIX teams can tie for the conference championship with four wins each.

4.  BCS Standings:  The BCS standings play a huge role in the Big East tiebreakers and, as such, some teams have a leg up.  According to ebhardwick, the Big East's BCS standings are (1) WVU [27], (2) Cincinnati [29], (3) Rutgers [34], (4) Louisville [63], (5) Pitt [65] and (6) UConn [n/a because they cannot win any mini-conference tiebreakers]. However, keep in mind that Cincinnati's BCS ranking will go down with their loss to Rutgers and many of the tie scenarios based on upcoming games involve future losses by most of these teams.

Here's the bottom line:

• If all 7 of the remaining games have a 50/50 probability of either team winning, UofL has a 30% chance of making the BCS and is the most likely team to make it.  In other words, UofL will make the BCS in 39 of the 128 scenarios involving the remaining 7 games.  Below are the probabilities of each team making the BCS in the "50/50 chance" format  for the remaining 7 games:  

1. Louisville (30%),

2. WVU (23%)

3. Rutgers (22%)

4. Cincinnati (16%)

5. Pitt (9%)

6. UConn (0%).

• UofL really needs to win against USF.  If they win the USF game, only 64 scenarios remain and UofL makes the BCS in 36 of those scenarios (56%).  On the flip side, if UofL loses to USF, there are only 3 of the remaining 64 scenarios where they can make the BCS.
• It makes more sense to probability-weight the outcomes of the remaining games.  As such, I've assessed the following probabilities to the remaining games:

1.  Louisville @ USF  - [50% / 50%]

2.  Pitt @ WVU  - [60% WVU]

3.  Rutgers @ UConn  - [60% Rutgers]

4.  Cincinnati @ Syracuse  - [60% Cincinnati]

5.  WVU @ USF  - [60% WVU]

6.  Syracuse @ Pitt  - [60% Pitt]

7.  UConn @ Cincinnati  - [60% Cincinnati]

• Based on these probability weightings, WVU actually becomes the favorite to make the BCS.  Below are the probability-weighted chances of each team making the BCS:

1. WVU (31%),

2. Louisville (25%)

3. Rutgers (21%)

4. Cincinnati (17%)

5. Pitt (6%)

6. UConn (0%).

• Having said, that if UofL beats USF, we have a 49% chance of making the BCS in the probability-weighted scenarios.

• The Bottom, Bottom Line is that UofL has a 25%-30% chance to make the BCS.

ATTENTION!  Stop reading here unless you are a nerdy-type who wants additional detail:

• If you care to see my spreadsheet, direct message me your email address and I'll send it to you.
• if you'd like me to adjust any of my probability assumptions, let me know and I can model those changes quickly.
• I am working under the assumption that if there is a 5- or 6-team tie, that the tiebreaker goes to the team with the highest BCS rankings among teams with the best mini-conference record.  Reminder:  the Big East is silent on this.
• I am probably giving Cincinnati too much credit because I've kept this analysis consistent with ebhardwick's view where Cincinnati wins ties because their BCS (#29) is higher than Rutgers (#34).  However, Cincinnati's BCS is surely to drop after today's loss.
• Below are the two paths to a 6-way tie for the Big East championship:

Scenario #1

• USF>UL
• Pitt>WVU
• UConn>Rutgers
• Cincinnati>Syracuse
• WVU>USF
• Syracuse>Pitt
• UConn>Cincinnati

Scenario #2

• USF>UL
• WVU>Pitt
• UConn>Rutgers
• Cincinnati>Syracuse
• USF>WVU
• Pitt>Syracuse
• UConn>Cincinnati

• There are two scenarios which create a 5-team tie with a mini-conference that still produces a 5-team tie with each team 2-2 in the mini-conference:

Scenario #1

• USF>UL
• Pitt>WVU
• UConn>Rutgers
• Cincinnati>Syracuse
• USF>WVU
• Syracuse>Pitt
• UConn>Cincinnati

Scenario #2

• USF>UL
• Pitt>WVU
• UConn>Rutgers
• Syracuse>Cincinnati
• WVU>USF
• Syracuse>Pitt
• Cincinnati>UConn

I had never heard David Akers speak before, but I gotta tell you that this is one of the best interviews I have ever heard.  Very well spoken and humble.  I'm sure most UofL fans are aware of the outstanding year he is having in SF this year, but I thought that many of you would be interested in this interview (taped after week 1).  If anyone is struggling with what Christmas gift to give me this year, I'd be happy with a #2 49er jersey.  Red.

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Can someone please answer this question for me?  How are the reigning NCAA Champion Basketball program and the most profitable basketball program in the country left on an island in the conference realignment game of chess?

Meanwhile, the following programs are on the "inside" of the conference realignment game?

Northwestern

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Virginia

Iowa St.

Oregon St.

Washington St.

What gives?

Also, I would be very curious if an open records request at UK would yield any findings about them using their veto card to prevent UofL from joining the SEC.

So I just read an article in the Wall Street Journal about the remnant Big East / Big XII teams that are being viewed as leftovers.  What if UofL takes matters into its own hands and executes a little "strategery."  

Situation Overview:

1.  The college sports landscape is changing dramatically with the formation of likely four super-conferences (ACC, SEC, Pac-1x and Big "10").

2.  The landscape is shifting in the favor of large, research universities with large student enrollments that tend to be "state schools."  In other words, this is the traditional profile of a "football school."  On an exception basis, smaller schools are allowed in these leagues (eg, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Duke, Stanford, Wake Forest) under the guise that there is a significant academic priority among the conferences.

3.   College football has the worst post-season configuration (BCS instead of a playoff) of any athletic league in the entire world.  Despite this fact, college football is the driving factor of the conference realignment at the expense of other sports. 

4.  I have not heard a single, compelling piece of rationale for why colleges are leaving their existing conferences.  The only logic I have heard is that these schools "don't want to be left out."

5.  Success in college sports have historically had a positive impact on the "brand" and reputation of the universities which rolls over on the academic side as well.  For example, the University of Wisconsin saw a material increase in undergraduate applications after their Rose Bowl trip in the Ron Dayne era.

6.  The new super-conferences have no problem excluding the other schools in the FBS, but really NEED these schools to fill out their non-conference schedules (eg, Toledo playing at Ohio State in game #2 of the season).

7.  Despite having the most profitable athletic department of any NCAA school and having the new "gold standard" of basketball arenas, Louisville is not a significant player in the conference realignment talks.

What if Louisville did the following:

1.  Lead a coalition of the non-super conference schools to form their own football division (yes, division not league).  This division would include Big East, Big XII, MWC, WAC, MAC, independents, others.

2.  This coalition would agree that it would NOT schedule any games versus the super-conferences.  In other words, the teams in the super conferences would not be able to fill out their schedules with non-superconference teams.  They would either have to schedule games against the former I-AA teams or negotiate home-and-home series with other super-conference schools (which is difficult).

3.  Here is the critical move:  the new division of football (which includes Louisville) organizes a playoff format to its championship series.

Here's how it would benefit Louisville:

1.  The would avoid being a "victim" in the process and would control their own destiny.

2.  The introduction of a playoff would revolutionize college sports.

3.  Each team in the new division of football would have a real chance at being a national champion.

I'm sure I've left out a few things, but just wanted to put down some quick notes.

Just saw the Nova game.  Can someone please tell me what the 3pt shooting percentage in the NCAA tournament is with less than 20 seconds left with the game on the line?  Is it 95%?

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ESPN didn't have a ton of success predicting the field this year.  Here's a summary of the analysis:

1.  Accurately predicted 65 of the 68 teams (95.6%).  Or, more appropriately, accurately predicted 34 of the 37 at-large teams (91.9%).  

2.  Missed the selections of Georgia, VCU and UAB by predicting Colorado, Virginia Tech and St. Mary's.

3.  Of the 65 teams that were accurately picked, ESPN (1) predicted the correct seed 30 times, (2) was 1 seed off 25 times, (3) was 2 seeds off 7 times, (4) was 3 seeds off 2 times and (5) was 4 seeds off once.

4.  Biggest seeding error prediction was Utah St. as an 8-seed (instead of a 12-seed).  Next biggest misses were Michigan (predicted to be an 11-seed, but came in as an 8-seed) and Missouri (predicted to be an 8-seed, but came in as an 11-seed).

5.  Nailed two matchups exactly right (each from the MWC):  SDSU/Northern Colorado and BYU/Wofford.

6.  Amazingly, for the seven Big 10 teams in the tournament, ESPN accurately predicted the seeds of two teams (OSU and Wisconsin), but predicted worse seeds for the five other teams.  As mentioned, Michigan was predicted to be 3 seed-lines worse than they did and also Illinois and Penn St. were predicted to be 2 seed-lines worse than they did.  Purdue and Michigan St. were 1 seed-line off.  What conference is the Chairman of the selection committee from?

7.  Unusually, of the top 4 seed-lines in each region (i.e. the top 16 teams), ESPN missed HALF of the seeds of those teams.  Missed one 1-seed, two 2-seeds, three(!) 3-seeds and two 4-seeds.

Wow, that game was fun.  Big congratulations to Feathered Biceps for winning the 3rd annual BET pool.  In either scenario in the final, Feathered Biceps is the winner.  It's amazing to me that of the 108 entrants, only two people had UConn in the final and nobody had UConn winning the final.  I don't think the last two winners have taken advantage of the prize:  a choose-your-topic essay which gets to be posted to the front page.  I hope Feathered Biceps takes advantage and claims the prize.

Kevin Spradlin charges to the lead by nailing all four games today.  Cards lookin good.

Those who picked Marquette have gotten paid so far in the pool.  Of the 108 entrants, selections for the winner of the BET are as follows:

1. Pitt (36)

2. UofL (27)

3. Notre Dame (25)

4.Syracuse (12)

5. St. John's (6)

6. Villanova (2)

And now the standings:

The BET pool nearly doubled with 108 entrants this year, which is up from 55 last year.  Congrats to bghtodd for going a perfect 4/4.  And congrats to the entire participant pool because nobody went 0/4 (although having Depaul play does make that easy).  Several people have asked about a tiebreaker.  There will be a two-step tiebreaker:  (1) if you don't have an asterisk next to your name, you will win a tiebreaker vs. someone with an asterisk and then (2) for those eligible to win going into the final, I will ask you to submit the total points for the final.  If you have an asterisk, that means that you didn't read the "VERY IMPORTANT" section of the instructions.  

I’m going to run another Big East Tournament pool this year.  Like last year, the scoring system will have a twist because otherwise the format of the tournament doesn’t encourage risk taking (ie, you already know for sure one team playing in each 3rd round game).  As a result, here is the modified scoring system:

 1. Round 1: you will receive points equal to 50% of the winning team's seed if you get it correct. For example, if you choose South Florida (and they win), you will get 7.5 points.

 2. Rounds 2-3: each time you get a game correct, you will receive points equal to that team's seed. For example, if you choose Depaul to win their 2nd and 3rd games (and they do), you get 32 total points for these two rounds (in addition to 8 points from round 1).

 3. Semifinals:  For each semifinal game you choose correctly, you will get the greater of (i) the team's seed or (ii) 8 points.

 4. Final:  If you choose the winner correctly, you will receive 16 points.

The winner gets to write 1,000 words on any Big East or NCAA Tournament-related topic that they choose with an auto-bump to the front page.

 To submit your picks, respond below in chronological order using the Big East Tournament bracket here.  For example, if you were going to default to choosing the highest seeds, your submission would look like this:

1. Connecticut
2. Seton Hall
3. Villanova
4. Marquette
5. Georgetown
6. St. John's
7. Cincinnati
8. West Virginia
9. Pittsburgh
10. Syracuse
11. Notre Dame
12. Louisville
13. Pittsburgh
14. Notre Dame
15. Pittsburgh

VERY IMPORTANT:  It will help me tremendously if everyone uses the same format for the team names to submit their picks (eg, not putting " 'Eers" if you choose West Virginia to win).  Please use the following proper names when submitting your picks (ie, "Syracuse" instead of "Cuse" and "Villanova" instead of "Nova."  The only questionable ones are Connecticut (instead of UConn), South Florida (instead of USF) and St. John's (with apostrophe).  Thanks in advance -- doing this will save me a ton of time. 

GOOD LUCK!

EDITOR'S NOTE: I'm throwing in a Preston/George Senior Day poster as an additional prize to the winner. You'll also have the option of me autographing or not autographing the back. The only catch is if you opt out of the autograph, you also don't get the poster.

Someone made a comment the other day that UofL has had the Top Play on SportsCenter's Top 10 four different times this year.  If that is true, that is AMAZING.  To play 30 games and have four games with the best highlight in all of sports that day is ridiculous.  I know that the (i) Kuric / ND dunk and (ii) Preston / Providence shot were #1s, but what were the others?  Please send links.

Wow.

I do not want a double bye in the Big East Tournament and here's why:

1.  In a double-bye situation, the probability of UofL losing their one and only game is probably 45%.  If UofL only received a single bye, the probability that they win the first game is probably 75% (onto #2 below).

2.  I want to watch MORE  UofL games than LESS so I'd be content having to play an extra easier game just to see UofL twice.  After all, why are we rooting for UofL to potentially play fewer games when, in fact, we would all look forward to seeing UofL play as much as possible.

3.  Winning at MSG is always exciting and, except for 2009, we haven't had much of it.  A nice, single-bye game against the #12 seed will a good way to get a W in the world's most famous arena.

4.  I believe teams have an advantage by playing the day before instead of being the stale team that hadn't played yet.  Case in point:  last year Cincinnati had already played a game in the tourny while UofL was stale.  In fact, 3 of the 4 stale teams with a double bye lost their first game last year.  Thus, I assert that UofL would have a better chance of winning its round-of-8 game if it had already played the day before.

5.  A win is a win.  Playing in the single-bye round allows UofL a better chance to pad its Win total for the NCAA tournament.

6.  I don't think the "market' views an early round tournament loss any differently if it's the round of 12 or the round of 8, so the timing of the loss doesn't matter.  In other words, UofL has no risk playing in the round of 12 game.  However, I think a win in the round-of-12 would be helpful to pad the win total.

I've seen a lot of debate on here or Twitter about which seed we want (eg, 3, 4, 5 or 6) or which #1 we would want in our region if we're the 4/5.  To me, it is a no-brainer:  all we should really care about is the danger level of our first round opponent.  And because of that, we CLEARLY want either the 3 or 4.  

I saw in a recent Bracketology that we're 5-seed playing the winner of Michigan St. or Richmond.  The  4-seed in our projected region, Florida, gets to play #13 Oakland.  I put the odds of us beating either Richmond or Michigan State at around 55% (well, maybe <50% for Michigan St.) while the odds of us beating Oakland are probably 90%.  Conclusion:  MASSIVE difference by being a 4-seed.

I think the biggest dropoff in quality BY FAR in the tournament is between the 12-seed line (which are typically good) and the 13-seeds (which are typically terrible [except for Tulsa in 2003]).  The advantage of being a 4-seed as opposed to a 5-seed is WAAAAY bigger than the advantage of being a 5-seed instead of a 6-seed.  It's critical for UofL to get to a 4-seed.

Thanks everyone for playing and congrats to statprof!  I, for one, am very interested to read his editorial coming up.  

1 statprof 70 2 Web  66.5 3 Adamjd86 63 4 Leigh 53 4 mapaul04 53 6 Chicago's Cardinal 3 52.5 7 Remote Cardinal  52 8 LTCByerz1  48.5 9 drhustle 48 10 klizzler 47 11 CardsFanTX 41.5 11 sarasota-card 41.5 13 97E3LPL 41 13 doctorofdunk 41 13 Schmucky 41 16 Dais 40 17 cardscott5 38 18 Cambroni Cardinals  37.5 19 kusellis 37 19 REALISTICCARDSFAN  37 21 rwieg22  35 21 sam34gtr  35 21 Villeslgr 35 24 HendoCard  34.5 24 Macadu18 34.5 26 rjsuperfly66 34 27 scouser  32.5 28 CardinalDude 32 28 neverwrongponchowright 32 30 mp502 30.5 31 CentreCard14 30 31 LaBradford Smith 30 31 Phauz 30 34 CardsFan922 29.5 35 zulu15 29 36 520Card 28.5 36 cvaughn8086 28.5 38 Mike Rutherford 27.5 39 Chris Redman is my hero 26.5 39 thecraphead  26.5 41 Luke Whitehead's Rap Career 25 41 SpeedStudent 25 41 TallGriff 25 41 Tbone74 25 45 UL is my hot hot sex 23.5 46 83fan 23 46 cardsrock 23 46 Quinn1979 23 49 loverofthegame 22 49 NeverFold 22 49 whitacreky  22 52 rickmbari  20 53 armyof1 19.5 54 guyngreen 18.5 55  jwn0303 15

1.  Sure, I suppose UofL would rather be in a 7/10 game, but I think this is pretty dang close to being best-case for UofL.  Cal, which is probably the most overseeded team in the tournament, is from the Pac-10 and UofL has beaten the tar out of the last 3 Pac 10 NCAA opponents (h/t to Mike).  Plus, Cal has to travel to just about the farther place in the US from their campus in Jacksonville.  Duke is a great team, but a very beatable team.  I think UofL could beat every team in the tournament at least 3 out of 10 times, with the exception of UK and KU.  I don't think UofL could beat either KU or UK 3/10 times.  In other words, great to play Duke!

2.  I continue to be confused about the "benefits" of being the #1 or #2 overall seed.  KU and UK get to potentially face the top two #2 seeds.  Or, said a different way, this is really unfair to the top #2 seeds in OSU and WVU because they are the ones who have to face KU or UK.  Last year, UofL was the so-called #1 overall seed but almost had to play OSU in Dayton and then had to play Michigan St. in Indy.  Again, where are the "benefits?"

3.  I always try to figure out how much a single loss costs a team.  Take UTEP for example.  If they beat Houston in the CUSA final, I think that they are likely a #6, #7 or #8.  So, effectively, the Houston loss costs UTEP 4-6 seed lines.

4.  I think Cornell got the worst end of the stick of all the teams.  Not only are they the most underseeded team in the tournament, but they have to go against a team that can really mitigate their strength in Temple.  Cornell's coach came from Dunphy's staff at Penn so Dunphy clearly knows all of Cornell's tricks.  I think Cornell could have been a massive problem for almost every other team in the tournament (reference the @KU game that Cornell almost won).  I just can't believe Cornell is one seed line above Wofford.

5.  Syracuse gets to play UVM which beat them in the first round in 2005 (played at the same time as the UofL/UL-Lafayette near upset.  I'm sure that wasn't great news for all Orange fans.

6.  Once again, my rule of thumb of "never, ever, EVER listen to a word Digger Phelps says about the NCAA tournament because he doesn't have a CLUE about how the selection works" holds true.

7.  I'm a little puzzled how Virginia Tech is out yet its ACC counterparts like Wake as a #9 and Clemson as a #7 (which finished beneath the Hokies in the standings) were such safe picks.

8.  I thought Richmond could have been a great sleeper pick, but they got the wrong team paired up against them in Nova and there's no way Richmond wins that game.

9.  Marquette's last 3 NCAA's have been held in Anaheim, Boise and now San Jose.  Yek.

10.  Great call by CBS to play last year's One Shining Moment right before the selections.  I think the only thing bad about the Vancouver Olympics was the lack of a One Shining Moment equivalent to wrap everything up at the end.

There were 55 entries.  The picks for the Champion were:

22 Syracuse

9 Louisville

9 Villanova

6 Pitt

4 WVU

3 Georgetown

1 Notre Dame

1 UConn

Standings after the jump

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