R O
Apr 02, 2009 Apr 21, 2011 31 3238
a fan of
Calgary Flames
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Feaster is Calgary's New Ass-Man
Stick your comments about the Feaster hire here.
Brent Sutter Admits That Backlund Needs Sheltering
What more can I say? Backlund hurts the team, Conroy and Boyd should have been above him on the depth chart. Open and fucking shut.
Winning Games
by R O on Mar 8, 2010 12:16 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
A discussion about winning games is long overdue.
There is no math here, no numbers, and barely a cursory mention of statistics. The fights between "stats guys" and "other fans" are illusory. The real question is whether one is willing to take a measured approach to reality, i.e. figure out what's actually happening on the ice.
A hockey team wins the Stanley Cup by winning more games than it loses. Sixteen in the playoffs, and usually more than 41 games in the regular season. The road to the Cup is paved with wins.
A hockey team wins games by scoring more goals than the opposition. You definitely want to score more goals than you allow in any one game. Generally speaking you would also like to score more goals than you allow over the course of a season. Maybe there is something to be said about timely goals, or scoring enough goals to win in close games while simultaneously getting blown out in games that you were going to lose anyway. On the other hand, it probably doesn't matter. The road to wins is paved with goals.
How does a hockey team score goals?
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Burrows Accuses Official Of Biased Calls
So Alex Burrows last night was victimized on a couple blown calls, and sounded off saying as much.
Having watched the highlights, I agree the calls were blown. And if what Burrows says is true (that the referee actually was out to get him) it sets an uncomfortable precedent.
I find it ironic though that Burrows is complaining. Frankly I don't think he has a leg to stand vis-a-vis complaining about blown calls - mostly because he's already on his knees after a dive. I find this choice bit from the article especially entertaining:
Burrows was referring to an incident back in December when the Preds' Smithson hit Burrows and was given a major penalty for charging and a game misconduct. On Monday night, Burrows said Auger was getting back at him.
"When Smithson hit me from sideways and he (Auger) said, 'I saw the replay, you had your head up, you weren't really hurt and you made me look bad so I'm going to get you back tonight,' and he did, and he cost us two points.
This douche regularly victimizes officials with his antics. The play in question was particularly brutal. I figure if he's drawn 15 blown penalties over the course of the last two seasons that's 3 undeserved goals - or a point that he has cost the opposition. So it's richly ironic that he's complaining about losing points to blown calls.
But the alleged intent behind the calls is troublesome.
Side effect: this overshadows LaserGate, and just for our own entertainment that should be front and centre.
Misconceptions
by R O on Dec 17, 2009 5:01 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
I stopped writing regularly for this blog a few weeks ago because of work. Many a night now spent at the computer, but not watching hockey. So in the most recent post-game, when I was asked to explain what Pythagorean expectation meant, well I wasn't going to answer. For one, I don't have that much free time to spare these days, and for two, why reinvent the wheel, right? This is the age of Google, after all.
But I can't let a comment like this go:
Good Lord I didn’t realize that a teams projected point total based on their GF and GA was related to the equation for solving the hypotenuse of a right triangle (surely you know the formula a^2 +b^2 = c^2). The Pythagorean Point Equation eh?
Please explain this formula to me R O. You posted the link so you should be willing to back it up. Maybe you could complete a derivation of it so I can gain a better understanding. Or you could complete an uncertainty analysis based on the projected point totals and actual point totals of all thirty teams using their GF and GA (I will explain this if needed) to prove that it isn’t complete bogus
Two things:
1.) My personal belief, which Kent may not share (this is his blog after all), is that commenters who want to move the conversation forward should be ready and expected to do some legwork themselves. There are a ton of resources out there (www.nhl.com, www.behindthenet.ca, www.hockeyanalytics.com, etc. etc.) and Microsoft Excel is also your friend here.
2.) Asking why P% can be predicted by an a^2 + b^2 = c^2 formula is missing the forest for the trees. Again, my belief (and one that Kent may not share as well) is that this whole hockey-stats movement is not about glorifying seemingly meaningless numbers. It's about gaining insight into hockey - measuring what's important, seeing what drives success, and more importantly, what doesn't drive success.
So the right question to ask isn't "why does a^2 + b^2 = c^2 predict points percentage"?? The right question to ask is "is it really possible to predict how often you pick up points simply by looking at how often you score and how often you get scored on"??
Because, folks, if this is possible, then BIG GOALS and BIG SAVES are mirages.
Hiatus: G23, Coyotes @ Flames Post-Game
by R O on Nov 26, 2009 6:06 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
ZoneStart, G23, Coyotes @ Flames
Well, it was a statement game. The Flames' home record had them in a bit of hot water with the home crowd. They've had their share of bad luck there (compensated by good luck on the road) - but ask the Leafs how bad luck affects fanbase morale.
The Curse of the Flying Vee: G22, Flames @ Ducks Post-Game
by R O on Nov 24, 2009 3:49 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
ZoneStart, G22, Flames @ Ducks
Last night's shootout loss to the Ducks hit a bit of a sore spot for me. I'm always annoyed by those little quirky streaks that teams and players randomly go on. You know the ones: Flames always lose on TSN (was that last year?), Khabibulin is a Flame killer, Flames never win afternoon games, Flames never win at the Pond/Joe Louis/Atlanta/Buffalo/ACC... yeah you know the ones.
Sky Rockets In Flight! G21, Flames @ Kings Post-Game
by R O on Nov 22, 2009 1:57 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
ZoneStart, G21, Flames @ Kings
... Afternoon Delight!
The Flames almost never win these afternoon games, do they? At any rate, great game, great win, and (mostly) good effort.
Perception, and Reality: G20, Blackhaws @ Flames Post-Game
by R O on Nov 20, 2009 12:41 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Corsi
(note - only shows the first two periods for some reason)
ZoneStart, G20, Blackhawks @ Flames
A team is never as good as it seems when it's winning, and never as bad as it seems when it's losing.
G19, Avs @ Flames, Talk-Radio-Free Post-Game
by R O on Nov 18, 2009 11:55 AM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
About 99% of sports talk radio callers make shit up*. Case in point: I tuned in to the FAN960 post-game last night.
That was a mistake.
They sure love their C-words on the FAN: confidence, character, ciller instinct (heh). I'm pretty sure those things played a role in last night's loss, but some folks are so focused on the game-within-the-game-within-the-game. It's like double vision, you see two of everything so you think there's two of everything. Sometimes there's not even one of anything.
Head to Head: G17-18, Flames @ Sabres and Leafs, Post-Games
by R O on Nov 16, 2009 9:35 AM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
It's not too late for a post-game, is it? Surely not when head-to-head icetime data is involved... more after the jump.
G16, Flames @ ... Wild? ... Post-Game
by R O on Nov 11, 2009 1:12 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
At least they didn't play in the prisoner jerseys against us. Got-dang. No wonder they had to pay Cammalleri $30M to play in Canadiens silks.
Readers Respond: G15, Rangers @ Flames Post-Game
by R O on Nov 8, 2009 2:43 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Let's try something different here. I have a poll after the jump asking this question: "Did the Flames play well last night"? Answer the poll first (it's at the bottom of the page), then read my post-game and see if your perception of the game matched mine.
Shades of Hasek: G14, Flames @ Blues Post-Game
by R O on Nov 6, 2009 12:24 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Dominik Hasek had an unparalleled career in the NHL. In goal for a Sabres team that was regularly outplayed and outclassed, he backstopped them to a conference title and, but for the errant skate of one Brett Hull, a good chance at the Stanley. Hampered by injuries in his later years, Hasek nonetheless had some success in Detroit. Some say he was the best player ever to tend the nets.
So it was nice of Hasek to come back to the NHL for a couple games this week, and steal four points for the Flames.
Take The Money And Run: G13, Flames @ Stars Post-Game
by R O on Nov 5, 2009 1:08 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
The puck and player were both in the neutral zone. Let's get that straight right now, it was a BS call.
And the game was fu-ugly. The scoring chance count is shocking - check it out yourself but prepare to lose your lunch.
But as the adage goes, "we'll take the two points". Because if we're not getting points in these games while the forwards get their biznaz together, then we're hooped.
Flames jump the queue for flu vaccine
Apparently the Flames brass decided to jump the line to get vaccines for several Flames players and family members. I can see why they would do it - millions are on the line when dealing with the health of players - but given the shortage in Canada, couldn't they just have bought these vaccines from private clinics in the US instead?
G12, Wings @ Flames, Post-Indifference-In-The-Defensive-Zone
by R O on Nov 1, 2009 3:20 PM EST
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
There's a bit of fan wisdom from baseball that says that every team wins 50 games and loses 50 games, just because. It's the other 62 games that decide your season.
It applies to hockey too, almost perfectly I'd say. You are going to lose at least 20 games no matter how good you are, just because. Sometimes you are the better team and just don't win. Sometimes you aren't the better team.
Calgary was not the better team, last night. And we might just lose more than 20 games this season.
Paying the Devil His Dues: G11, Avalanche @ Flames Post-Game
by R O on Oct 29, 2009 3:29 PM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Sometimes the better team doesn’t win.
Reach-Arounds and Shafts in the Face: G10, BoA @ Calgary Post-Game
by R O on Oct 26, 2009 1:06 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
The question on everyone's lips going into last night's edition of the Battle was: "revenge"? Thanks to Pat Quinn's asinine remarks about how (back in the day) he used to use the onion on his belt to beat people, there was some question of whether Jarome Iginla was going to get hosed by grease, so to speak. And so he did.
Oh, and the Flames dominated the Oil. That's not news though.
A Day Late, A Buck Short: G9, Blue Jackets at Flames Post-Game
by R O on Oct 21, 2009 5:36 PM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
... or should it be, post-post-game? The post-game was going to go live this morning but, as it is wont to do, Real Life™ got in the way.
Which is a shame, because this game deserved post-game glory! Easily the best game the Flames have played this year - which is not saying much, but here at M&G we are blessed with saint-like patience.
Yeah...
Only seven games into the 2009-2010 NHL campaign the Boston Bruins have sent forward Chuck Kobasew to the Minnesota Wild.
In return the Bruins will receive winger Craig Weller, a second round pick in 2011, and the rights to prospect Alexander Fallstrom.
Good 5, Evil 3 - G8, Canucks at Flames Post-Game
by R O on Oct 17, 2009 1:22 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Let's get this out of the way right now:
SUCK IT VANCOUVER!
Ok back to rational discussion. Tonight the Flames had something to prove. They came out, and they proved... something. Not sure what - maybe that old adage about leopards and spots? The team's still a work in progress.
However, here is what I said in Tuesday's post-game:
Oh well. Let's hope the Flames regroup for Thursday against the Canucks. Honestly priority #1 in that game for me is to win it, I don't care how bad we play as long as we get 2 points and Vancouver gets zero. But it'd be nice if they played well.
Mission accomplished!
Stop Me If You've Heard This One: G7 Flames @ Blue Jackets Post-Game
by R O on Oct 14, 2009 12:21 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Stop me if you've heard this one: 20 guys walk into a bar. They decide to get into a game of beer pong with 20 other guys at the bar. Now the first 20 guys are supposed to be really, really good at beer pong, as if, you know, they're getting paid to do it or something. I know, ridiculous, right? They haven't been too hot at some of the other bars they've been to recently, so they promised a million of their closest friends that they'd do better at this one. So they start playing beer pong, and they come out pretty strong. But their best beer pong players are too busy hitting on the hot chicks across the table and pretty soon they're getting abused. Ping, pong, in the cup, bottoms up, and before you know it these 20 guys are drunk and have lost the game.
And those chicks that they were trying to impress? They went home with the winners!
...
Ha ha, what a joke! Just like that Flames game.
...
Scoring Chances
(there's a wonky problem with the EV/PP designations for the third period chances)
G6 Flames @ Blackhawks: Post-Turkey
by R O on Oct 13, 2009 1:09 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Scoring Chances
(These are f'ing awesome, thanks Kent!)
Thanksgiving weekend gave Flames fans another kick in the nuts. Friday: Calgary loses. Saturday: Edmonton wins. Sunday: Vancouver wins. And tonight: Calgary lays its worst egg against a team who showed their guests how hockey is supposed to be played. I feel sorry for anybody who ordered this game on PPV - you deserve better.
At least we have turkey. As in, the Flames' zone pressure and territorial play. Yuk yuk.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: G5 Stars @ Flames Post-Game
by R O on Oct 10, 2009 12:33 PM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
It's not surprising that the Flames lost last night, given the perfect storm of circumstances that afflicted them: second half of a back-to-back, playing in front of a much-maligned Curtis McElhinney, with one of their most useful players (David Moss) out of the lineup and one of their least useful players (Olli Jokinen) in the lineup. Here's what Kent had to say about it before the game:
Flames tackle another, more recent nemesis this evening for the first time as well: the second night of a back-to-back. I'm sure I don't have to remind everyone that Calgary was absolutely putrid in these circumstances last season: not only did they frequently lose...they frequently lost BIG TIME. Here's hoping the team comes out with some sort of purpose tonight.
Prescient, my friends, prescient.
Game 4: Battle of Alberta (Flames @ Edmonton) Post-Game
by R O on Oct 9, 2009 1:37 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
Tonight, Calgary had a chance to extend their start-of-season winning streak to four, something that I don't think has ever happened in the lifetime of my allegiance to the Flaming C. Even sweeter, they could do it against the hated Oil, and maintain a 6-point lead over the equally hated Canucks. What transpired tonight was something to behold, and in the end it came down to multiple photo (video?) finishes.
Game 3: Canadiens at Flames - Post Game
by R O on Oct 7, 2009 12:27 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
In Calgary, the Flames are right up against the cap with a talented squad that added Bouwmeester during the offseason. Where that leaves UFA-bound Olli Jokinen remains to be seen.
"Management wants to see how the team plays early in the season and what role Olli has in that, and then we'll see how we proceed from there," said Jokinen's agent, Mark Gandler. "It looks like the changes the team made are positive changes, and it's the right team for Olli. I know Olli feels that way and the GM feels that way. So we'll see what happens."
Humble Beginnings, and Critical Player Evaluation
by R O on Aug 25, 2009 2:04 AM EDT
on Matchsticks and Gasoline
The creator of this fine blog, Kent Wilson, has kindly invited me to contribute some content to this site. It's an honor and pleasure to do so. I go by the alias R O although you may call me Richard if you prefer. I've been a Flames fan for a while but only within the last season have I come to understand the game more deeply than "he shoot he score" and "oh what a save". Let me show you what I mean.
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