[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/10/09 4:08 PM EST ]

TBrownYahoo

  

If Bradley trade is close, it's not to Rays.

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So say Bob Nightengale's latest Tweet:

BNightengale #mlb #cubs Cubs officials say they are close to trading OF Milton Bradley, and all indications are that he'll be going to Tampa Bay.

Let's see who blinked.

From Ken Rosenthal:

Ken_Rosenthal

 

TB will sign Soriano for one year at 7M or slightly above. Deal will be official after usual exchange of medical records, etc.

That's a lot of money.

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After a full day of speculation, we finally reach resolution. Jon Paul Morosi is reporting the Rays will trade Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. In effect, the Rays will deal the ghost of Akinori Iwamura for Rafael Soriano, barring anything else being added to the deal.

As for Chavez, well, we barely knew ‘ya Jesse. Take care in Atlanta. He's a decent get for Atlanta considering they held little leverage in this situation. Almost the opposite of the original deal that landed Chavez with the Rays.

Now, for Soriano.

Let's start from the top.

Soriano will turn 30-years-old on December 19^th. He signed with the Seattle Mariners as an amateur free agent in 1996 and made his Major League debut on May 10^th, 2002. On December 7^th, 2006, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Horacio Ramirez. For his career, he's pitched 332.2 innings, struck out 365, and walked 104. All told, he has a career FIP of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.65. Soriano was eligible for free agency this season, however he decided to accept arbitration rather than testing the market, and gave the Braves permission to trade him immediately afterwards.

He throws your garden variety power closer pitches. A 92-94 MPH fastball that reaches 96, a slider that sits in the low-80s, and -- in the rarest of instances - a low-80s change-up. His fastball produced a 12.1% whiff rate last season while his slider sat at 16.4%. For comparison, J.P. Howell's curve generated 19.5% empty swings, which is to say Soriano's stuff is filthy. Soriano is a career fly ball pitcher, which isn't desirable, but when you pack the heat he does, pitching up in the zone without getting slammed is an acceptable way of life.

Soriano isn't without his questions either. He has missed most of three seasons since 2004, including 2008 most recently with a mixture of injuries - some shoulder soreness, a groin strain, and a side strain. He's also dealt with a concussion, oblique strains, and Tommy John surgery.  The exact costs in which he'll require are unknown as well. Yes, there's a strong chance he will repeat as a Type-A free agent next off-season, but as the Braves found out this year, that isn't always a guarantee; especially with non-elite free agent relievers.

So how good is he?

Over his last three healthy seasons (2009-6, minus 2008) he's posted FIP of 2.54, 4.17, and 3.43. Obviously a repeat of 2009 would be fantastic, but also unlikely. Of those, 3.43 is almost exactly in the middle and probably what most people will go off.  If you apply the 5-3-2 weighing to his last three healthy seasons FIP you get an average of 3.2. Add in another 2 for league average adjustment - note: this is seriously just a league average reliever, so this projection is actually a bit more conservative than it could be - and you get 3.39 - or basically J.P. Howell's 2008, which is great.

League adjustment is going to be something I feel we'll discuss a lot. Scouts think he has the stuff to succeed in baseball's toughest division - and I would agree - and based on his previous AL seasons in the bullpen it would seem like he can step right in and post a sub-4 FIP, but those seasons were a long time ago and while they aren't 100% irrelevant, they shouldn't be weighed nowhere near as much as the most recent seasons. Below is a list of 2009 relievers who came from the National League and how they fared in at least 40 innings worth. This is FIP and xFIP so as to neutralize whether it was luck or worse pitching:

That's a small sample size, but the average shift in FIP is about 1.  Soriano is a better pitcher than quite a few of those on the list, so let's say he only feels a little bit of the change and posts a FIP around 3.7. That would be Howell's 2009 season all over again, which is good. If Soriano pitched like that on last year's club, he would've given the Rays three relief pitchers under 3.8 FIP. The Yankees had four; the Red Sox two; and the Blue Jays three.

How's this for coincidence. The Rays have Howell, who's entry we've taken to calling chill time. Well, as best as I can find, Soriano enters to a song called Fuego - Spanish for fire.

This Tweet from David O'Brien of the AJC:

Sounds like Braves-Rays could finalize a Rafael Soriano deal as soon as tomorrow morning.

There's not much else to add at this point. No names have been mentioned as a return and last I heard (which was hours ago, mind you) other teams were still talking to Atlanta. If it happens, we'll analyze the specifics then. Don't get too hyped up about this, but also realize the Rays could very well be on the verge of adding a good reliever without giving up a first round pick.

Let's take this time to address Milton Bradley as well.

There's nothing new on that front. There hasn't been anything new in months. The Cubs have tried and tried again to bluff the Rays into jumping on a deal or roping another team into the proceedings and nothing has worked. The ol' ‘mystery team' card was successful, if you also consider aiming for India and hitting America a successful voyage and well ... hey, history books do. Good going Cubs, this is the first thing you've done worthy of a parade in over a century.  

The biggest and boldest new rumor is clearly Rafael Soriano to the Rays. Here's the latest update:

[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/09/09 4:50 PM EST ]

jaysonst

 

Soriano deal could get done today, sources say. Rays very interested but balking at $ and player(s)

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Rays looking like frontrunner for reliever Soriano — 4:07 p.m.

Tampa Bay appears ready to finally address the two-year late-inning bullpen problem. The key for the Rays is coming to grips with the fact they will have to expand the payroll a few million dollars to accommodate a closer.

The Rays and Houston are making the strongest push to acquire right-handed closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta with growing indications that the Rays are likely to make the move.

Ringolsby isn't the most analytical writer in the world, so his emphasis on closers is going to be quite a bit stronger than someone like, say, Larry Stone. Regardless, we'll keep you updated if we hear/see anything further. Worth noting is that Houston is on the verge of acquiring another Rays target, Matt Lindstrom, which would -- presumably -- take them out of the Soriano race.

After the jump, the latest on Dioner Navarro and the Texas Rangers.

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This comes way of Ken Rosenthal's Twitter (H/T Jonah Keri):

@Ken_Rosenthal: Rays, Astros the teams trying to trade for R. Soriano.

Soriano was a Type-A before accepting arbitration. That would be great and all, but the Braves had already signed a Type-A reliever of their own (Billy Wagner) and added a new set-up man (Takashi Saito). Rather than paying the bills on three expensive relievers, and since they cannot trade Saito already, the Braves are looking to move Soriano instead as the rules permit such movement after an acceptance of arbitration.

Soriano is good. Very, very good. His career xFIP is 3.65 while his career FIP is even lower at 3.31. He strands runners at an above average rate, and avoids bats very well (74.3% contact for his career). Soriano is a flyball pitcher and he will cost some change next year. It'll be interesting to see whether the Rays can sweeten the pot by giving Atlanta enough so as to receive some financial help in return. 

Olney with this:

ATL asking for solid recent for Rafael Soriano, in addition to having other team pick up $. Unclear whether sometimes bites on asking price.

I'm assuming "sometimes" is suppose to be "someone".

Andrew Friedman

Bill Chastain with a nice article on the Rays willingness to be patient. This quote pretty much sums up winter meeting rumors as a whole:

"Each respective team or agent [they talk to about players], there's at least five teams that are hot and heavy [as far as their interest in that player]," said the Rays' executive vice president of baseball operations, with a twinkle in his eye. "So either we have really good taste, or we're not necessarily getting the straight scoop."

Matt Lindstrom/Reynel Pinto

An interesting addition to the usual Matt Lindstrom rumor, whether intentional or simply by association, is Chastain's inclusion of Marlins lefty Reynel Pinto.

Pinto, like Lindstrom, is arbitration eligible, which means the Marlins are more than eager to move him for something before losing him for nothing. A southpaw with the ability to miss bats, Pinto's biggest struggle throughout his 224 Marlins relief appearances has been his inability to consistently find the zone.  His strikeouts per nine is an impressive 8.65, however he's also walked 6 per nine. Factor in that he's always had issues with the long ball, and his track record is less stellar than the other options discussed to date. Certainly there seems to be some potential there, whether it ever comes out or not is to be seen.

Chastain also notes the Rays held trade talks with seven teams yesterday, but that nothing is imminent. Of course that can and has changed in the past. Especially when it comes to these last two nights.

Dioner Navarro

Both, Chastain and T.R. Sullivan mention the Rays as potential trading mates with the Texas Rangers. The reasoning: the Rangers wish to add another catcher, and the Rays have two attractive targets. The Rangers, meanwhile, have a number of bullpen arms that could interest the Rays. Personal favorite Darren O'Day and flame-throwing right-hander Pedro Strop are two names offered in speculation.

This information from Comcast SportsNet:

INDIANAPOLIS --  The agents for veteran left-handed reliever Darren Oliver intend to meet with the Red Sox over the next few days as they seek to find a home for the veteran pitcher.

Oliver has already drawn interest from Toronto, Seattle, Tampa  Bay and the New York Mets.

As recently as last off-season Oliver was trapped in a Type-A bubble, given his age and the compensation necessary to sign him, no team outside of the Angels was willing to forfeit a draft pick for the 39-year-old.  Despite being an elder statesmen, Oliver has appeared in at least 50 games each of the past three seasons and pitched quite well, with xFIP of 3.92, 4.15, and 4.43. Oliver rarely allows solid contact despite a fastball that sits below 90, although he still packs more power than say, J.P. Howell. He throws with his left arm and misses some bats, plus he's useful against batters of both hands as over the last three years he's held lefties to a .717 OPS and righties to a .616 OPS (I guess he digs numerical palindromes too, eh?).  He figures to be in the Rays' price range.

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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This information coming way of a few Jerry Crasnick Tweets. He lead off with:

Kelvim Escobar received positive report from Dr. David Altchek Tuesday. He might pitch a few innings in Venezuelan winter ball in December.

 

Then quickly continued:

If not, Escobar could audition for clubs in January. Mets, Rays, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers and O's among clubs keeping tabs on him.

The reported interest itself is new, but the concept is not. Tommy outlined why Escobar would make for an intriguing bullpen target here, surmising Escobar as a potentially useful risk worth taking given his track record of success and relationship with Joe Maddon. Escobar isn't a failed starter forced into the bullpen either. As Tommy noted:

As you can see, he's just a good pitcher. As a starter he allows less home runs and slightly less walks, but as a reliever he strikes out over two and a half more batters per nine. Looking at the second set of statistics, it's amazing to me how similar they are given the two completely different roles. Batters get on-base exactly the same whether he's a starter or a reliever and the slugging is almost identical. The BABIP is almost also similar meaning there isn't much "luck" involved. Of course there's over 1,000 innings difference between the two, but still pretty amazing. Equally impressive is his ability get out hitters regardless of their handedness.

Ideally, you can find someone with more than five innings under their belt the last two seasons and some will point to Troy Percival and Jason Isringhausen as examples of why targeting often-injured relievers is a waste of time, but Escobar's lacking health is really the only reason the Rays can reasonably afford him. This is a guy with an xFIP since 2002 around 4 despite spending all of his time in the American League and a history of success as a starter or reliever.

I don't want to bemoan the point too much, but this deal makes no sense for Arizona. Like, Josh Byrnes can tell everyone that King Zafuriack of the Hyereteian Empire forced him into it and even that would be more logical than the trade itself. Take a look at their part of this trade:

Going out: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth

Coming in: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy

Schlereth is a reliever. He's a former first round pick who struggles with walks but has bat-missing ability. Kennedy is a former "top" prospect. He throws a fastball in the low-90s and profiles as aback-end starter. Maybe more if everything breaks correctly.

Jackson is coming off the best season of his career. He posted a 4.39 xFIP (his previous three years were 5.03, 4.95, and 5.20 ... yeah.) but he only has two years of team control remaining and the pretty standard statistics will drive his arbitration costs up. Now, he's going to be in the NL West, which means a lower level of competition than say, the AL East, that should help with his numbers a little, but he's not a front of the line starter, and he's not better than Scherzer. No way, no how.

Scherzer is younger and has something like five cost controlled seasons left. His career xFIP is 3.71 and most people agree he's got room to improve. Potentially Arizona knows something the rest of us don't about his health habits or personal life, but even then, with that asymmetric knowledge you have to get something better than these cats named after dead presidents. But maybe I'm being too hard, maybe getting older, worse, and more expensive is totally undervalued on today's trade market.

This deal makes no sense for them. Detroit's side, I can understand. They need money and youth. They got money and youth. Good for them. New York, I get it. Granderson is something like a 3.5-4.5 win player most likely. Depends on what you think of his defense. He has a skill set that should age well, and while I'm thrilled Austin Jackson is gone, this definitely makes the Yankees better for the 2010 season.