by Tom Mihalek - AP

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--The Mets held internal dicussions [sic] about acquiring former Met-killer Pat Burrell from Tampa Bay, which would love to unload Burrell. But they're not inclined to make such a deal, because of Burrell's weak defensive skills.

Newsday

If Omar Minaya is reading this, and boy do I hope he is, that assertion could not be further from the truth. Last year I advised him to acquire Edwin Jackson and for whatever reasons he ignored me. An All-Star appearance later I feel vindicated. I'm going to advise him again because he gets it but sometimes he just needs a reminder of this. Below is my letter to Mr. Omar Minaya:

Dear Omar,

Over the last two years, Burrell has a Fielding Percentage of 99.6%. That means for every 100 balls he attempts to catch, 99.6 of them are successfully trapped in his glove. Carl Crawford - who many crown as the best left fielder in baseball - has a Fld% of 98.6%. That's right; Burrell converts an extra out per season. Oh sure, Matt Holliday (98.9%) and Jason Bay (99.3%) are attractive and all, but come on Omar, you know baseball. You know math. You know that 99.6% is better than 99.3%. If Baseball gave test grades to General Managers, you would probably want the 99.3% because you are a very humble individual who likes to be viewed as a hard-worker, but not the teacher's pet. I can sympathize with that. But right now Omar, right now, you need, nay, you deserve the best.

Jay Z is a big fan of the Yankees and odds are he won't show up when you win your World Series, but one of his lines in particular reigns true: men lie, women lie, but numbers don't. You don't buy into all those ‘advanced' stats - UZR? +/-? PMR? The only P_R you know is Pabst Blue Ribbon from your teenage days, am I right? - created by all the basement nerds trying to create formulas to get clean skin and chicks, and I respect that. But even us baseball guys have to admit that those FLD% numbers are impressive.

Here's a few other numbers I found on some nerd's site. I don't even know where these guys get this stuff. Burrell's career at bats, home runs, and runs batted in versus the National League East teams:

ATL: 506, 22, 68

FLA: 537, 26, 95

NYM: 536, 42, 104

WAS: 498, 20, 94

Reread those numbers against the Mets. 42 home runs, 104 runs batted in. That's in games the Mets were involved in. If he's on the Mets, and they are playing, then he has shown he is better. Also, here's something I found interesting: those are the teams Pat has the most at bats against. All division rivals of yours. You know what that tells me Omar? It tells me he WANTS to be up in those high pressure situations in those divisional games that mean something.

Oh, and he has a World Series ring.

Do you want that?

Me too.

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What I'm about to say has absolutely no bearing on Evan Longoria's accomplishment. He is one of the few winners of the mark of "defensive excellence" that actually deserves to be crowned. Here's what the Rays presser had on Longo:

"It's the one award that I've wanted to win since I started pro ball," Longoria said.  "I take a lot of pride in my defense, so this award is very special to me.  It's humbling to have your name associated with some of the great players who have won a Gold Glove, especially the third basemen.  I would like to thank the managers and coaches who voted for me and I'd also like to thank Carlos Peña.  We all know how good he is.  He probably saved me at least five errors this year so without him the award might not have been possible."

Since 1990, only seven players have won a Gold Glove at a younger age than Longoria:

Player, Team                  Year(s)                  Age(s)

Ken Griffey, Jr., SEA      1990-91-92-93      20-21-22-23

Ivan Rodriguez, TEX     1992-93-94-95      20-21-22-23

Andruw Jones, ATL       1998-99-2000       21-22-23

Roberto Alomar, TOR   1991                      23

Scott Rolen, PHI            1998                      23

Eric Chavez, OAK          2001                      23

Jeff Francoeur, ATL       2007                      23

Evan Longoria, TB               2009        23

That being said, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton deserved it nearly as much and neither wins one yet again. The managers and coaches vote on these things and it's just insane to think they have a good grasp on who is and who is not a good defender based on - at most - seeing 18 games against these players. It's purely reputation based and even then they get it wrong.

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Slowinski asked what the Rays should do with Andy Sonnanstine last week. It's pretty obvious. The team needs a new catcher. I don't have to put two and two together for you.

Now the concerns are pretty obvious. Can Sonnanstine catch? Of course he can. Look at how many times he's caught a throw from the catcher back to the mound. Can he hit? Of course he can. He has a .364 wOBA for his career. Plus, you don't need stats to know that Sonnanstine possesses a natural affinity for the wooden instrument of cowhide destruction. Can he throw? Yes. Not hard, but that's never stopped Gregg Zaun.

Some would say "But Brooks Kieschnick tried and failed at being both" and they would be correct. But Brooks Kieschnick was never as good of a pitcher as Sonnanstine is. Plus, Babe Ruth did it, and Sonnanstine has far more in common with Ruth than Kieschnick. Just ask Gary Glover who played with both. As for the Ruth connections, ask Greg Norton who played against Ruth on many a Boston Braves teams, or you could just connect the other chains to the Babe.

For instance. Glover played with Sonnanstine and also with Jose Canseco on the 2001 White Sox, who played with Tommy John  on the 1985 A's, who played with Dicky Donovan on the 1964 Indians, who played with Ray Mueller on the 1951 Boston Braves, who played with Ruth on the 1935 Braves. Or, if that one isn't good enough for you, how about Chris Richard, who played with Eric Davis, who played with Pete Rose, who played with Joe Nuxhall, who played with Ray Mueller?  Need more? Sonnanstine played with Scott Kazmir who played with Fred McGriff, who played with Phil Niekro, who played with Gus Bell, who also played with Ray Mueller.

Really, this is just a long-misguided attempt to advertise the B-Ref Chain of Teammates toy. If anyone's bored, just punch in a few names and watch how many chains there really are. B.J. Upton connects with Satchel Paige, Carl Crawford rather easily with Tim Raines Sr., and Grant Balfour with Wally Pipp. It's a nice time waster if nothing else.

The first legitimate shot at a Ray winning ...

At least he finished well ahead of Rick Porcello. I'm a bit amused (disturbed?) at how many first place votes Andrew Bailey received and how few Brett Anderson received. I mean, yeah ERA, but come on.

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Nothing unexpected on the options part. Although it will be interesting to see if they attempt to re-sign Zaun.

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Ramirez is a 27-year-old righty with the locks of Lincecum from the Cincinnati organization and 39.3 career innings in the Majors. That's a pretty small sample size to draw from, but during his time he posted a 4.6 FIP and 5.1 tRA. His home run per fly ball percentage is awfully high for a reliever (just over 11%) but those things fluctuate so much on a year-to-year basis for a reliever it's hard to know whether it will be an issue heading forward. He's done some starting and pen work throughout his career.

His fastball is the pitch he uses the most and it sits around 90 miles per hour. He backs that up with a change-up that sits seven-to-eight clicks lower and also has a slider. Again, a small sample to work with, but he showed a good tendency to miss bats with a 76.5 Contact% (average is about 81%) and avoid walks. His strikeout totals before hitting Triple-A were ridiculous, but in 127.3 innings as a starter/reliever, his Triple-A K/9 dropped to 5.51 this year.

Interestingly, he's thrown a little over 3,200 pitches at Triple-A since 2007 and his swinging strike rates were pretty impressive. Assuming this guy's change is legitimate - and it appears so - this could be more than simply fooling less talented batters, but as mentioned his whiff rates with the Reds was pretty solid too. He has one option year remaining and will probably shuffle between Durham and Tampa at least a time or two throughout the season.

His middle name begins with an A. So there's that.

Whiff rates from last year with the pitch totals thrown in (SSS):

And now for his 2008 numbers (mostly as a starter), SSS again:

That change might be something, huh?

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Inverted W! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

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Per Ed Price.

Crawford won't reach free agency, Zaun and Shouse have options which may be declined, and Springer is a true free agent. The questions now are whether any of them will be offered arbitration in order to gain a supplemental round compensation pick. Given his age (and potential salary) it seems rather unlikely Shouse gets offered. The same can probably be said for Springer. We'll see though.

Some more thoughts:

• LaTroy Hawkins is a Type-A free agent. He will cost some team a first round pick if they decide (for whatever reason) they need him. Adrian Beltre is a Type-B and won't cost a pick. You know, I really cannot wait until someone like Boston focuses on adding Beltre for less than his market value and then doesn't have to give up a pick to get him. Please Phillies, win him for us.
  
• Chan Ho Park, Kiko Calero, and Brandon Lyon are Type-B free agents.
• Billy Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Octavio Dotel, Rafael Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and John Grabow are Type-As. 
• Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, and Rod Barajas hold the same compensation type as Carl Crawford. No, really.

To steal Viva El Birdos intro:

The cloud of white smoke your computer emitted last night might have tipped you off, but this year's SBN blogger awards are going to be revealed this week. They're just like the BBWAA awards, except that tomorrow's post isn't set aside for ragging on the choices. Yet. Stop the drumroll:

Why not just name the damn thing "The managers of good teams" award?

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It seems odd, but the most compelling Rays hot stove item has nothing to do with this off-season. Well, it has something to do with this year, just not as much as it does with next year, or the year after next. All eyes will be on the Rays and a certain free agent after this season. Will there be an extension? A trade? Will the Rays just let him walk? I'm not talking about Carlos Pena or Pat Burrell. Instead, obviously, Carl Crawford. It seems like just yesterday Crawford signed the extension. So let's examine the three means of action the Rays can take with Crawford moving forward.

Extension

Let's start with the basics. Crawford's birthday in early August turned him 28-years-old, the period in which most baseball players begin experiencing their statistical prime. Next year is the final year of a four-year, $15.25M extension (which included two club options worth $18.25M) signed way back in April 2005. He is the organization's career leader in plate appearances, runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, strikeouts, and stolen bases. Many would describe him as the Rays' franchise player, although Evan Longoria has a fine argument too.

Over the last three years Crawford has posted wOBA's (stolen bases included) of .367, .319, and .365. In 2006, Crawford's wOBA was .368. Consistency. Defensively, Crawford is the best left fielder in baseball and it's not particularly close. Last three years UZR/150: 17.5, 25.6, -1.4. I'm not sure what happened in 2007 (horrible ARM rating mostly) but weigh that however you wish and the end result is Crawford being a plus-plus defender. That means 10 < x < 15 runs every season with maybe a down season or two.

If you examine Crawford's defense a little closer, you'll find that Crawford's best asset is (unsurprisingly) his range. Since 2002 Crawford's range ratings are as follows:

Crawford's top two seasons by RngR have came over the last two years. That's insane to think about. Most research has indicated that defensive skills begin to decay well before their offensive skills brethren. We're talking mid-20s instead of early-30s. Crawford plays a position with normally weak defenders, and UZR is scaled to league average, so +20 in 2009 may have been +25 in 2005, still it's remarkable to think he's only gotten better relative to the rest of the league's left fielders.

The time period in which UZR encompasses doesn't help much when trying to look at how players with similar skill sets at similar ages progressed. Those players are still around Crawford's age. or weren't to begin with. and that just complicates any type of comparison or projection based on historical context. We'll get back into this in a few paragraphs once we start looking at comparable players.

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