SB Nation User Blog: R.J. Anderson

Rauch, Friedman, Upton

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:25:05 -0000

Rays Remain Interested in Rauch

Updating a previously covered rumor, the Rays are apparently scouting Nationals reliever Jon Rauch, per a MLB.com report:

In other news, a baseball source said scouts from the White Sox and Rays are looking at reliever Jon Rauch, who has been the team's best pitcher with a 2.85 ERA and 17 saves.

The Rays, who are in the Wild Card and American East Division races, are looking at Rauch as a set-up man. With Troy Percival so fragile, the Rays would also consider Rauch being a closer.

The price for Rauch was reported as higher than the price for Brian Fuentes, but he's definitely a more intriguing, in the short and long term, and likely more talented option.

Friedman on Deadline Deals

Thank the baseball gods every night that Andrew Friedman is our general manager. Friedman provided this gem to Marc Topkin's Sunday column concerning whether the recent losing streak would change the team's perspective on trades:

"Had we flip-flopped our seven-game winning streak and our seven-game losing streak, people would be talking about how we went into the break as one of the hottest teams in baseball and (we) don't need anything at all," Friedman said. "That's one of the challenges in this job. You can't get too high, and you can't get too low.

That's simply too logical.

Upton Moved Down in Lineup

And now short rant time, the topic is B.J. Upton being moved down to seventh due to his slumping. I don't have a problem with moving slumping players down like Maddon has, Carlos Pena for instance, but I do have a problem when it's a double standard. Despite his seemingly endless recent struggles Upton leads the team with a .380 on-base percentage, essentially he gets on base the most, moving him down to 7th is hurting the lineup, but I'll go along with this idea of moving players down who are struggling only to ask how Carl Crawford is getting a pass in the second slot despite recent coldness and a season OBP of .314.

If you really want that lineup to spark try putting Upton second and moving Crawford to seventh, but I guess that could be grounds for an ambush accusation.

Silly Season

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 16:03:46 -0000

I actually remember when I said the Rays being mentioned for every good player simply due to their contender status wouldn't bother me, but things are slowly changing with stuff like this and this. I'll address the Price/Pirates note first and simply say if there is one player that the Rays won't trade it's David Price.

Why? Because he's a 22 year old future front line starter on a team that hasn't had too many of those come through the pipelines. Yes, the Rays have quite a few young arms, no that doesn't mean you should trade them for short term gain only. Young pitching is like oil, if you have it in excess you sell it for well over the actual price, otherwise you keep it. The promise of young pitching is what made the Rays trade Delmon Young, what made the Athletics spend four million on Michael Inoa, and what made the Mariners forfeit 2008 for Stephen Strasburg.

Which brings us to the next note that the Rays are interested in Brian Fuentes, Clint Barmes, and Willy Taveras. To their credit both Barmes and Tavares are rangy defenders which would make them valuable to any team, except this one. Neither are better on defense than the current options, and both of their bats are sorely lacking. No, Jason Bartlett is not an offensive gem, but at least he doesn't hack quite as much as Barmes. To Taveras' credit he has a pretty good understanding of the strike zone, but doesn't seem to willing to actually draw a walk.

Frankly Brian L. Hunter and Bo Hart types are available across the minors, there's little reason to waste assets for bench novelties at best especially when Nate Haynes and Andy Cannizaro are rotting in Durham.

Fresh off of one of the quicker No. 1 overall pick signings in recent memory, the Rays will conti...

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:33:57 -0000

Fresh off of one of the quicker No. 1 overall pick signings in recent memory, the Rays will continue to build their farm system as well with some big bonuses. Sources indicate that second-round pick Kyle Lobstein will sign with Tampa for $1 million, and that fourth-round selection Ty Morrision, a toolsy outfielder with plus speed and power projection, will also sign for a 'slightly' over-slot bonus.

Per Kevin Goldstein

Captain Clutch

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 16:29:19 -0000

I've got a post coming up later concerning the Rays v. Red Sox, but here's a placeholder for your conversations with a little thought attached. Let me ask you, who do you think has the lowest OPS when faced with runners in scoring position?

A) Carlos Pena

B) B.J. Upton

C) Evan Longoria

Take a minute to think about this, which player performs the worst in runners on situations? I'll give you a hint it's not B.J. Upton, meaning it's either Pena or Longoria. Hey Pena strikes out a lot so maybe him, right? Well here's the thing...no. For all of the talk about how Pena is a rally killer check out his numbers this year:

Player	OPS RISP
Pena	0.921
Longoria	0.791

I'm going to assume this is a surprise to some, but I wanted to use this as a vehicle to ask if anyone else had noticed things about this team that are generally the opposite of the common conception?

Blanton dealt

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:06:59 -0000

Blanton dealt

To the Phils for three prospects

Price Watch

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:21:07 -0000

Just like yesterday how about we examine the performance of one David Price to other great young hurlers and their first season of at least six or more starts in the minors. I decided to include a few Rays high school arms as a close comparison and a few really good college arms for more direct comparisons.

Player	IP/GS	K/IP	BB/IP	K/BB
Price	6.1	0.97	0.28	3.47
Kazmir	4.4	1.33	0.4	3.29
Shields	6.5	0.87	0.15	5.7
Hellickson	5.6	1.23	0.2	6
Lincecum	4	1.81	0.38	4.8
Miller	6	0.78	0.32	2.44
Prior	5.7	1.55	0.35	4.39

Frankly I hadn't noticed that Price stacked up quite this well. Yes, the K rate is a little weak, but his low walk rate goes a long way in soothing that and I'm hopeful it rebounds as he adapts to the AA lifestyle. One thing to be really encouraged about: as of now he's allowed the same amount of homeruns against that you and I have this season.

Short Post of the Day: Hackiness

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:11:01 -0000

Using Fangraph's leaderboards, here are the 10 players least likely to hack at a pitch outside of the zone:

Name	Team	O-Swing%
Jack Cust	Athletics	12.23%
Marco Scutaro	Blue Jays	12.81%
B.J. Upton	Rays	14.57%
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	14.66%
Daric Barton	Athletics	14.72%
Bobby Abreu	Yankees	14.85%
Chipper Jones	Braves	14.94%
Brian Giles	Padres	15.57%
Jason Giambi	Yankees	15.62%
Johnny Damon	Yankees	16.62%

And the 10 most likely:

Name	Team	O-Swing%
Yuniesky Betancourt	Mariners	34.62%
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	35.18%
Ryan Braun	Brewers	35.28%
Jeff Francoeur	Braves	35.66%
Mike Jacobs	Marlins	35.71%
Bengie Molina	Giants	36.67%
Delmon Young	Twins	38.52%
A.J. Pierzynski	White Sox	38.82%
Carlos Gomez	Twins	39.15%
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	45.03%

Is it just me or is there a difference between being "aggressive" and being "hacky"? For instance let's say a player has a 20% O-Swing, which is really good, but only sees 3.6 P/PA, not great, but if he's not swinging outside of the zone he's simply attacking the pitches inside of the zone early in the count. Meanwhile a player with a high O-Swing%, no matter the P/PA, is "hacky" to me. Does anyone else have similar definitions?

Little Weapon

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:59:27 -0000

With Tim Beckham finally recording his first extra base hit this past week I figured on a league wide off day it would be a nice time to review what Beckham has done since being drafted first overall in early June. After nearly 60 plate appearances Beckham's .176/.254/.196 line is a bit lackluster, even for an 18 year old in his first pro ball experience.

Beckham has five walks and 11 strikeouts thus far, along with a hit by pitch, stolen base, and one grounder resulting in a double play. Beckham's committed five errors but using the only defensive metric I can find for minor leaguers, range factor, Beckham rates out at 4.45 for comparison B.J. Upton's career RF at short is 4.31. In other words: Beckham covers more ground than water and his error total seems to be a bit skewed since he did make two errors in one game.

Now addressing his batting approach and extended statistics, take a look at this table comparing him to a few other Rays teenagers:

Player	BB%	K%	BABIP
Upton	12.9	18.7	0.364
Young	9.36	21.2	0.38
Jennings	8.94	15.9	0.324
Beckham	8.5	18.6	0.225
Brignac	8.26	9.91	0.418
Baldelli	4.9	22.9	0.272
Crawford	4.76	17.2	0.354
Hamilton	4.35	17.7	0.357

Not too shabby considering his low .400's OPS, but here's the catch: Beckham's hitting roughly 22% of his balls as line drives, yet only has BABIP of .225, more than .100 points below his expected BABIP. He's been ridiculously unlucky, almost the point that it's a joke. On the other hand a 57% ground ball rate probably isn't as bad as it seems - Upton for instance has a 51% grounder rate this season - and Beckham is fast enough to turn some of those into hits.

So through a few weeks the results that people will speak of for Beckham are hardly accurate of his play thus far. Whether his numbers regress to the mean this season or next doesn't matter too much, the important thing is this kid looks supremely talented.

ASG GDT pt 2

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:48:19 -0000

Quality Really is Better than Quanity

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:35:35 -0000

Quality Really is Better than Quanity

Sky looks at whether one stud reliever is better than three good relievers.