SB Nation User Blog: R.J. Anderson

Neurotic Thoughts Over a $7M Closer

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:09:35 -0000

The thought of these Rays paying a reliever $7M is still fresh and decisively odd. Sky Kalkman and Dave Cameron - two baseball analysts with respect levels from me beyond quantification - discussed the concept on Twitter yesterday afternoon. I'll summarize in paragraph form because after the last four days I am sick and tired of 140 characters or fewer.

Rafael Soriano is probably worth at least $7M next year, assuming he gets plenty of high leverage innings and pitches like the rough projection from yesterday suggests. Regardless, this is the Rays. This is the team of getting the most bang for their buck. Well, yes, but at the same time, the Rays have done such a fantastic job of loading up on depth - cheap depth - and worthwhile starters that there's simply no other place to upgrade, meaning splurging on Soriano isn't as bad because it's not like they're robbing another position of need to pay one with less impact.

Which is exactly why I agree with Dave.

Since the Rays are in a position to do more than challenge for a playoff spot, the marginal value of an extra win becomes worth more than if they were an 80 win team looking for win number 81. Say the Rays just went from a 92 win team to a 94 win team, that's worth a lot in terms of playoff probability. Between the Numbers estimated that a playoff appearance is worth $25M, which trumps $7M three times over. Squeaking another win or two out of a strapped roster is more important now than ever before.

Which is exactly why I agree with Sky.

I am a fan of Soriano. I am a fan of acquiring him for Jesse Chavez. I am a wee bit skeptical at spending $7M on him when his absolute upside might be three wins. Instead, what if the Rays spent that money on Rich Harden. The likelihood of getting no production would've been substantially higher, but so would the potential upside. Plus, how much better is he then Wade Davis? Well then, what's the value of keeping Davis down and avoiding Super-Two status? And what if Harden stays healthy for the entire seasons by some stroke of divinity?

This is also the reason Milton Bradley has long been appealing. He'll come cheaper because of injury concerns, and if you get that one special year. Watch out. Of course, you could also go the other route and minimize risk rather than maximize reward; this is why Brad Penny gets as much money as Harden despite being nowhere near as good. We can go on and on about this, at the end of the day, Soriano combines the two lines about as well as any free agent reliever available did.

This issue isn't black and white in the least. Let's face it, 2010 is going to be the last year with this core. Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Soriano, and potentially Pat Burrell are due for free agency after the season. The odds of keeping all of them is something like 0.02%. In many ways, if the Rays are ever going to go all in, this is the year to do it. Further, it's only $7M. Only in the sense that there is no future loss here. They didn't trade Reid Brignac or Jeremy Hellickson or Jeff Niemann for Matt Capps. They didn't trade J.P. Howell for him. They gave up a reliever with some upside who could morph into Soriano if everything strikes just right.

Even some trivial things come to light. Do you realize the Rays are paying Soriano the same amount they paid Chad Bradford and Troy Percival combined last year? Who doesn't take that swap? And the potential for draft picks is pretty tasty. Of course, if the Rays turn around tomorrow and trade Crawford for Will Venable I'll raise some eyebrows, but barring a clear out salary dump of someone important, I guess this really doesn't hurt the team either way.

If nothing else, the complexity of thought raised by this move beats the hell out of "Gabe Kapler signs for one-year, $1.05M".

Report: Milton Bradley "Close" to Being Dealt; Potentially to the Rays

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:37:07 -0000

[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/10/09 4:08 PM EST ]

TBrownYahoo

If Bradley trade is close, it's not to Rays.

---

So say Bob Nightengale's latest Tweet:

BNightengale #mlb #cubs Cubs officials say they are close to trading OF Milton Bradley, and all indications are that he'll be going to Tampa Bay.

Let's see who blinked.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays to Sign Rafael Soriano for "$7M or Slightly Above"

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:15:57 -0000

From Ken Rosenthal:

Ken_Rosenthal

TB will sign Soriano for one year at 7M or slightly above. Deal will be official after usual exchange of medical records, etc.

That's a lot of money.

Tampa Bay Rays Deal Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:01:26 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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After a full day of speculation, we finally reach resolution. Jon Paul Morosi is reporting the Rays will trade Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. In effect, the Rays will deal the ghost of Akinori Iwamura for Rafael Soriano, barring anything else being added to the deal.

As for Chavez, well, we barely knew ‘ya Jesse. Take care in Atlanta. He's a decent get for Atlanta considering they held little leverage in this situation. Almost the opposite of the original deal that landed Chavez with the Rays.

Now, for Soriano.

Let's start from the top.

Soriano will turn 30-years-old on December 19^th. He signed with the Seattle Mariners as an amateur free agent in 1996 and made his Major League debut on May 10^th, 2002. On December 7^th, 2006, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Horacio Ramirez. For his career, he's pitched 332.2 innings, struck out 365, and walked 104. All told, he has a career FIP of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.65. Soriano was eligible for free agency this season, however he decided to accept arbitration rather than testing the market, and gave the Braves permission to trade him immediately afterwards.

He throws your garden variety power closer pitches. A 92-94 MPH fastball that reaches 96, a slider that sits in the low-80s, and -- in the rarest of instances - a low-80s change-up. His fastball produced a 12.1% whiff rate last season while his slider sat at 16.4%. For comparison, J.P. Howell's curve generated 19.5% empty swings, which is to say Soriano's stuff is filthy. Soriano is a career fly ball pitcher, which isn't desirable, but when you pack the heat he does, pitching up in the zone without getting slammed is an acceptable way of life.

Soriano isn't without his questions either. He has missed most of three seasons since 2004, including 2008 most recently with a mixture of injuries - some shoulder soreness, a groin strain, and a side strain. He's also dealt with a concussion, oblique strains, and Tommy John surgery. The exact costs in which he'll require are unknown as well. Yes, there's a strong chance he will repeat as a Type-A free agent next off-season, but as the Braves found out this year, that isn't always a guarantee; especially with non-elite free agent relievers.

So how good is he?

Over his last three healthy seasons (2009-6, minus 2008) he's posted FIP of 2.54, 4.17, and 3.43. Obviously a repeat of 2009 would be fantastic, but also unlikely. Of those, 3.43 is almost exactly in the middle and probably what most people will go off. If you apply the 5-3-2 weighing to his last three healthy seasons FIP you get an average of 3.2. Add in another 2 for league average adjustment - note: this is seriously just a league average reliever, so this projection is actually a bit more conservative than it could be - and you get 3.39 - or basically J.P. Howell's 2008, which is great.

League adjustment is going to be something I feel we'll discuss a lot. Scouts think he has the stuff to succeed in baseball's toughest division - and I would agree - and based on his previous AL seasons in the bullpen it would seem like he can step right in and post a sub-4 FIP, but those seasons were a long time ago and while they aren't 100% irrelevant, they shouldn't be weighed nowhere near as much as the most recent seasons. Below is a list of 2009 relievers who came from the National League and how they fared in at least 40 innings worth. This is FIP and xFIP so as to neutralize whether it was luck or worse pitching:

Pitcher	2008 xFIP	2008 FIP	2009 xFIP	2009 FIP	xFIP Net	FIP Net
Wuertz	4.35	4.3	2.61	2.37	-1.74	-1.93
Springer	4.32	3.51	4.62	4.06	0.3	0.55
Lyon	4.1	3.84	4.24	4.06	0.14	0.22
Wood	3.07	2.32	4.11	4.15	1.04	1.83
Saito	2.98	2	4.86	4.25	1.88	2.25
Fuentes	3.05	2.24	4.94	4.42	1.89	2.18
Cruz	4	3.62	5.52	4.92	1.52	1.3
Nelson	3.58	3.45	5.36	5.65	1.78	2.2

That's a small sample size, but the average shift in FIP is about 1. Soriano is a better pitcher than quite a few of those on the list, so let's say he only feels a little bit of the change and posts a FIP around 3.7. That would be Howell's 2009 season all over again, which is good. If Soriano pitched like that on last year's club, he would've given the Rays three relief pitchers under 3.8 FIP. The Yankees had four; the Red Sox two; and the Blue Jays three.

How's this for coincidence. The Rays have Howell, who's entry we've taken to calling chill time. Well, as best as I can find, Soriano enters to a song called Fuego - Spanish for fire.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays/Atlanta Braves Could Finalize Rafael Soriano Trade Thursday Morning

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:10:09 -0000

This Tweet from David O'Brien of the AJC:

Sounds like Braves-Rays could finalize a Rafael Soriano deal as soon as tomorrow morning.

There's not much else to add at this point. No names have been mentioned as a return and last I heard (which was hours ago, mind you) other teams were still talking to Atlanta. If it happens, we'll analyze the specifics then. Don't get too hyped up about this, but also realize the Rays could very well be on the verge of adding a good reliever without giving up a first round pick.

Let's take this time to address Milton Bradley as well.

There's nothing new on that front. There hasn't been anything new in months. The Cubs have tried and tried again to bluff the Rays into jumping on a deal or roping another team into the proceedings and nothing has worked. The ol' ‘mystery team' card was successful, if you also consider aiming for India and hitting America a successful voyage and well ... hey, history books do. Good going Cubs, this is the first thing you've done worthy of a parade in over a century.

More Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 9th: Rays "Front Runners" for Rafael Soriano, Texas Rangers Show Interest In Dioner Navarro, and More

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:10:35 -0000

The biggest and boldest new rumor is clearly Rafael Soriano to the Rays. Here's the latest update:

[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/09/09 4:50 PM EST ]

jaysonst

Soriano deal could get done today, sources say. Rays very interested but balking at $ and player(s)

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Rays looking like frontrunner for reliever Soriano — 4:07 p.m.

Tampa Bay appears ready to finally address the two-year late-inning bullpen problem. The key for the Rays is coming to grips with the fact they will have to expand the payroll a few million dollars to accommodate a closer.

The Rays and Houston are making the strongest push to acquire right-handed closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta with growing indications that the Rays are likely to make the move.

Ringolsby isn't the most analytical writer in the world, so his emphasis on closers is going to be quite a bit stronger than someone like, say, Larry Stone. Regardless, we'll keep you updated if we hear/see anything further. Worth noting is that Houston is on the verge of acquiring another Rays target, Matt Lindstrom, which would -- presumably -- take them out of the Soriano race.

After the jump, the latest on Dioner Navarro and the Texas Rangers.

From ESPN's Richard Durrett:

Jason Kendall remains on the club's catching wish list and they've expressed some interest in Tampa Bay's Dioner Navarro. Interest in Toronto's Rod Barajas has lessened some because he's asking for more money than the Rangers appear willing to pay right now.

This isn't too much of a surprise, as Bill Chastain hinted at such in a recent piece. Who knows how close the Rays are to moving Navarro, but time is beginning to run out.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays Trying to Trade for Atlanta Braves Reliever Rafael Soriano

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:54:33 -0000

This comes way of Ken Rosenthal's Twitter (H/T Jonah Keri):

@Ken_Rosenthal: Rays, Astros the teams trying to trade for R. Soriano.

Soriano was a Type-A before accepting arbitration. That would be great and all, but the Braves had already signed a Type-A reliever of their own (Billy Wagner) and added a new set-up man (Takashi Saito). Rather than paying the bills on three expensive relievers, and since they cannot trade Saito already, the Braves are looking to move Soriano instead as the rules permit such movement after an acceptance of arbitration.

Soriano is good. Very, very good. His career xFIP is 3.65 while his career FIP is even lower at 3.31. He strands runners at an above average rate, and avoids bats very well (74.3% contact for his career). Soriano is a flyball pitcher and he will cost some change next year. It'll be interesting to see whether the Rays can sweeten the pot by giving Atlanta enough so as to receive some financial help in return.

Olney with this:

ATL asking for solid recent for Rafael Soriano, in addition to having other team pick up $. Unclear whether sometimes bites on asking price.

I'm assuming "sometimes" is suppose to be "someone".

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 9th: Andrew Friedman on the Market, Potential Interest in Reynel Pinto, Dioner Navarro Speculation, and More

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:09:25 -0000

Andrew Friedman

Bill Chastain with a nice article on the Rays willingness to be patient. This quote pretty much sums up winter meeting rumors as a whole:

"Each respective team or agent [they talk to about players], there's at least five teams that are hot and heavy [as far as their interest in that player]," said the Rays' executive vice president of baseball operations, with a twinkle in his eye. "So either we have really good taste, or we're not necessarily getting the straight scoop."

Matt Lindstrom/Reynel Pinto

An interesting addition to the usual Matt Lindstrom rumor, whether intentional or simply by association, is Chastain's inclusion of Marlins lefty Reynel Pinto.

Pinto, like Lindstrom, is arbitration eligible, which means the Marlins are more than eager to move him for something before losing him for nothing. A southpaw with the ability to miss bats, Pinto's biggest struggle throughout his 224 Marlins relief appearances has been his inability to consistently find the zone. His strikeouts per nine is an impressive 8.65, however he's also walked 6 per nine. Factor in that he's always had issues with the long ball, and his track record is less stellar than the other options discussed to date. Certainly there seems to be some potential there, whether it ever comes out or not is to be seen.

Chastain also notes the Rays held trade talks with seven teams yesterday, but that nothing is imminent. Of course that can and has changed in the past. Especially when it comes to these last two nights.

Dioner Navarro

Both, Chastain and T.R. Sullivan mention the Rays as potential trading mates with the Texas Rangers. The reasoning: the Rangers wish to add another catcher, and the Rays have two attractive targets. The Rangers, meanwhile, have a number of bullpen arms that could interest the Rays. Personal favorite Darren O'Day and flame-throwing right-hander Pedro Strop are two names offered in speculation.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays Interested in Darren Oliver

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:38:47 -0000

This information from Comcast SportsNet:

INDIANAPOLIS -- The agents for veteran left-handed reliever Darren Oliver intend to meet with the Red Sox over the next few days as they seek to find a home for the veteran pitcher.

Oliver has already drawn interest from Toronto, Seattle, Tampa Bay and the New York Mets.

As recently as last off-season Oliver was trapped in a Type-A bubble, given his age and the compensation necessary to sign him, no team outside of the Angels was willing to forfeit a draft pick for the 39-year-old. Despite being an elder statesmen, Oliver has appeared in at least 50 games each of the past three seasons and pitched quite well, with xFIP of 3.92, 4.15, and 4.43. Oliver rarely allows solid contact despite a fastball that sits below 90, although he still packs more power than say, J.P. Howell. He throws with his left arm and misses some bats, plus he's useful against batters of both hands as over the last three years he's held lefties to a .717 OPS and righties to a .616 OPS (I guess he digs numerical palindromes too, eh?). He figures to be in the Rays' price range.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays Keeping Tabs on Kelvim Escobar

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:03:38 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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This information coming way of a few Jerry Crasnick Tweets. He lead off with:

Kelvim Escobar received positive report from Dr. David Altchek Tuesday. He might pitch a few innings in Venezuelan winter ball in December.

Then quickly continued:

If not, Escobar could audition for clubs in January. Mets, Rays, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers and O's among clubs keeping tabs on him.

The reported interest itself is new, but the concept is not. Tommy outlined why Escobar would make for an intriguing bullpen target here, surmising Escobar as a potentially useful risk worth taking given his track record of success and relationship with Joe Maddon. Escobar isn't a failed starter forced into the bullpen either. As Tommy noted:

As you can see, he's just a good pitcher. As a starter he allows less home runs and slightly less walks, but as a reliever he strikes out over two and a half more batters per nine. Looking at the second set of statistics, it's amazing to me how similar they are given the two completely different roles. Batters get on-base exactly the same whether he's a starter or a reliever and the slugging is almost identical. The BABIP is almost also similar meaning there isn't much "luck" involved. Of course there's over 1,000 innings difference between the two, but still pretty amazing. Equally impressive is his ability get out hitters regardless of their handedness.

Ideally, you can find someone with more than five innings under their belt the last two seasons and some will point to Troy Percival and Jason Isringhausen as examples of why targeting often-injured relievers is a waste of time, but Escobar's lacking health is really the only reason the Rays can reasonably afford him. This is a guy with an xFIP since 2002 around 4 despite spending all of his time in the American League and a history of success as a starter or reliever.