SB Nation User Blog: R.J. Anderson

Yes, it's @RaysJoeMaddon, and in a medium that has been overrun by celebrity imposters, you can...

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 06:14:08 -0000

Yes, it's @RaysJoeMaddon, and in a medium that has been overrun by celebrity imposters, you can rest assured it's actually him.

"It's real," Maddon said.

Marc Lancaster gets to the bottom of the Maddon twitter account.

Scott Kazmir 'Loses' Homecoming Game

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:14:19 -0000

Scott Kazmir 2009, edition 2, issue 2

The raw results glow. 99 pitches over five innings with six strikeouts, a walk, and a homerun allowed. That's not too bad. Before I provide the velocity information, let me include a note about Arlington's pitchfx readings. It seems the flat mound or machine or something there leads to velocity readers being a few miles per hour lower than in other stadiums. So Kazmir "sat" around 91-92, but in reality, may have sat closer to 92-93.

To Kazmir's credit his pitches found the zone and the backstop's netting all night, resulting in 60%+ strikes on just about every one of his pitches. His change-up sat ~79-82, slider 81-84, two-seamer 87-92, and ... curve 84. Yes, he actually threw a pitch that registers as a curve, and it looks a lot like David Price's spike curve. I'm not sure if it's intentional, something new, or what.

Kazmir had 12 whiffs through 75 pitches and only induced one over the next 24. 12/75 is ridiculous, and basically 13% overall is pretty good. I would caution reading too much into these numbers, as they're inflated by hack masters like Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Chris Davis. Take those two out of the equation and Kazmir registers six. Still good, but facing the Rangers can inflate your swinging strike rates pretty quickly when Davis and Salty are active.

This didn't seem like a good match-up for Kazmir. The Rangers lineup was predominately right-handed and in a ballpark known for homeruns, Kazmir's fly ball tendencies were less than encouraging. He fared well and used the entire plate against the righties, making his big mistake against lefty Hank Blalock - a slider up and away.

There are some areas of improvement Kazmir can work towards, but let's be honest, this is a lot better than what Kazmir was doing in April.

7/3 GDT: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:01:57 -0000

American League Wild Card Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
New York	45	33	.576	0	Lost 1
Tampa Bay	44	36	.550	2	Lost 1
Texas	42	35	.545	2.5	Won 2
Toronto	42	38	.525	4	Won 1
Chicago	41	38	.518	4.5	Won 6
Seattle	40	38	.512	5	Won 1
Minnesota	41	39	.512	5	Won 2
Baltimore	35	44	.443	10.5	Lost 2
Oakland	33	44	.428	11.5	Won 1
Kansas City	33	45	.423	12	Lost 3
Cleveland	31	49	.387	15	Lost 5

(updated 7.3.2009 at 3:01 PM EDT)

Oh hey, another huge series.

Game starts at 8, thanks to this godforsaken timezone difference.

Funny How Things Work Out

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:56:31 -0000

On June 1st, I made a post talking about B.J. Upton's pending batted ball regression. A poll was included, asking which range everyone thought his rest-of-season OPS would be from June 1st on. I threw in "Over .950" to weed out the weeders, and naturally they've been right so far. Upton's post-June 1st OPS sits at a robust .950 and today he was named the American League Player of the Month.

I'll get to work on those Navarro/Burrell polls...

Series Preview: 7/3-7/5 Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:36:39 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Nelson Cruz is Ruthian in stature.

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7/3: Scott Kazmir vs. Tommy Hunter (8:05 FSF)

7/4: David Price vs. Derek Holland (8:05 SS)

7/5: Jeff Niemann vs. Scott Feldman (8:05 ESPN)

July 4^th with former top prospect fireworks should be the highlight of this series, although "Kazmir returns home!" makes for an interesting storyline as well. I'm going out on a limb and saying ESPN hates their pitching match-up by comparison. Woo, Feldman...Niemann. Woo.

Make sure to check out the Rangers Blog on the Dallas Morning News site, where I partook in a preview.

Playoff Odds

Coolstandings 50%

PECOTA 27%

No PECOTA 63%

Suffice to say, yay!

A Look at the Notable Rays Hitting Prospects; Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, Hector Guevara, and More

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:45:32 -0000

That play on teams with 20+ games played to date.

Player	Level	Pos	Age	K%	BB%	ISO	LgAge	LgK%	LgBB%	LgISO
Matt Joyce	AAA	RF	24	24	12.6	0.227	27	20.5	8.3	0.132
Reid Brignac	AAA	SS	23	11.8	8.3	0.157	27	20.5	8.3	0.132
John Jaso	AAA	C	25	13	13.5	0.133	27	20.5	8.3	0.132
Desmond Jennings	AA	CF	22	11.6	9.9	0.165	25	20.5	9.6	0.125
Kyeong Kang	A	RF	21	23	8.1	0.177	22	23.2	7.8	0.114
Timothy Beckham	A	SS	19	22.1	7.5	0.135	22	23.2	7.8	0.114
Hector Guevara	VSL	SS	17	11.6	6.9	0.209	18	20.4	8.7	0.12

Individual analysis after the jump.

Matt Joyce Pos: RF, Age: 24, B: L, T: R, Acquired: Trade

I've talked to death about this guy. His power is magnificent, he walks, and yeah he strikes out, but he's major league ready. The Rays have to carefully manage his service time thanks to Detroit. Right now, his service time is close to and probably over 130 days. That gives the Rays about 50 days to play around with from here on out, if they can stay under that threshold, they keep Joyce for an additional year. Otherwise, you may see Joyce stay in Triple-A for the overdrawn days to start next season. The Rays shouldn't need him given the Gabes performance.

Reid Brignac Pos: SS, Age: 23, B: L, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2004, 2nd Round)

He's still young for the International League, and he's striking out a lot less while walking about league average. The power displayed from his shortstop position is pretty nice as well. Brignac's short major league stint should help silence the crowd suggesting he couldn't hit major league pitching. In 44 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Brignac hit .357/.386/.524. Of course, he hit .059/.059/.059 in 17 against lefties. Despite filling in a little last year and a bit this year, Brignac's service time is pretty manageable and the ~30-35 days accumulated to date can easily be navigated around if the need ever arises. Whether Brignac is a shortstop or a second baseman for the Rays at the next level, he's desirable to other teams as the former.

John Jaso Pos: C, Age: 25, B: L, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2003, 12th Round)

Allow me to go out on a limb and guess Jaso wasn't really focusing on his defense for the first month of the season. So far, he's allowed eight passed balls in 55 games. In 98 games last year, he allowed eight. Jaso is still walking and making contact fine enough, but his bat doesn't exactly play up at another position.

Desmond Jennings Pos: CF, Age: 22, B: R, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2006, 10th Round)

I would have to guess Jennings is on the verge of a promotion. He's still walking better than league average, striking out nearly half less, showing more power, and playing a premium position. Maybe after the Futures Game is played Jennings can head to Durham. Otherwise, he's going to play blindfolded for a challenge.

Kyeong Kang Pos: RF, Age: 21, B: L, T: L, Acquired: Draft (2006, 15th Round)

He's a bit older than you would think, and everything minus the power is offensively average. He's a left-handed bat, but doesn't have a huge platoon split to speak of.

Tim Beckham Pos: SS, Age: 19, B: R, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2008, 1st Round)

Three years younger than league average, and he's striking out and walking at average clips while displaying more power than most of the league's populous. I'm not sure how anyone can be down on this guy right now. Yes, he's made errors, but the bat is nice. Here's a comparison for fun:

Beckham (19): .283/.342/.417

League average: .254/.322/.368

Justin Upton (18): .263/.343/.413

League average: .253/.325/.365

No, he's not Justin Upton, but nobody else is either. Nothing Beckham has or has not done to date should turn you against the pick. Things could be a lot worse.

Hector Guevara Pos: SS, Age: 17, B: R, T: R, Acquired: International Free Agent (2008)

Finally we reach the final hitting prospect worth noting to date. He's only 17-years-old and he plays in the Venezuelan Summer League. I don't know much about him other than he's hitting a lot better than most 17-year-olds would at any level of professional ball. There definitely appears to be some power potential there.

Meet Jonathan Meloan

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:28:48 -0000

Let's look closer at the newest reliever in the system, Jonathan Meloan. First, his percentage stats from the last few minor league seasons:

Year	Level	PA	K%	BB%	GB%	SwStr%
2007	AA	168	39.9	10.7	48.1	N/A
2007	AAA	85	23.5	10.6	43.6	10.6
2008	AAA	70	18.6	14.3	45.2	12.5
2009	AAA	173	19.7	8.1	41.1	9

Despite the inflated homerun ratio, Meloan has actually pitched pretty well in Triple-A this season. His walk rate is down and his strikeout ratio isn't poor despite inducing less whiffs. These numbers are nothing compared to his lower level numbers prior to 2007, where nobody could hit him. The Dodgers threw him in the rotation, something that didn't work out overly well. Since returning to the pen, Meloan hasn't shown that same domination although he has been pretty decent.

Let's look at his Pitchfx profile.

Fastball: 91-93 MPH, some cutting action inside to righties, tops out around 95.

(Sl/C)urve: 79-82 MPH, good break downwards.

Slider: 88-90 MPH

Change-up: show me pitch

Here's a look at a game chart from a Meloan appearance:

via www.fangraphs.com

It seems to me he may throw a two-seam fastball as well. Gameday classified both as four-seamers, so in reality there's a chance he throws a 90-92 two-seamer and 92-95 four-seamer. Throw in the slider as his outpitch and a plus looking slurve, and there's definitely some good stuff being thrown by Meloan.

So what's wrong with his performance in Triple-A this season? Apparently 14% (!!!) of Meloan's fly balls allowed are leaving the ballpark, simply put, that's unsustainable for a pitcher that seems to have quality stuff and an otherwise good performance at the level. Checking on Columbus park, it's very, very susceptible to the long ball. Statcorner's park factors have the park's HR/BIA factor at 122. Using MinorLeagueSplits and removing the ‘luck' aspect (aka excessive homeruns) of Meloan's performance, his FIP falls to 3.70.

I'm not going to say his true talent level is 3.7, since even when luck is thrown out Meloan's FIP is still in the ~4.2.-4.5 range for most of his Triple-A experience. CHONE and ZiPS agreed that Meloan's true talent projection sat between 4.4-4.9. Which...somehow, would make him the second worst reliever on the staff.

Accepting the fact that Abreu was A) gone either way, B) only here for a few months, it's hard to be too disappointed at this return. Meloan is the Rays property for at least the next six seasons and has the makings of a potentially above average reliever.

All stats courtesy of StatCorner, MinorLeagueSplits, and FanGraphs

The Rays Trade Winston Abreu to Indians for John Meloan

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:26:06 -0000

[Note by Tommy Rancel, 07/02/09 2:39PM EDT ]Update: Just got confirmation the Rays have traded Abreu to the Indians for John Meloan. Meloan, the 2007 Double A reliever of the year (baseballamerica.com) was added to the Rays 40-man roster and will report to Durham.

Marc Lancaster tweets:

tboraysAm hearing #Rays set to trade Winston Abreu to #Indians for fellow RH reliever John Meloan. Not confirmed yet though

Well, okay then.

I'm probably the biggest Winston Abreu fan around, and while I'm glad he's going to get a shot somewhere, I'm obviously saddened it won't be here. The thing is, the Rays were going to have to pass him through waivers this weekend anyways, and potentially lose him for absolutely nothing in return. Instead, they may get Meloan, who I'll discuss in a few. Abreu had an opt-out clause in his contract and would've bolted if the Rays didn't throw him on the 40-man roster and try sneaking him through, so really, Abreu's time with the club was limited any way you look at it. I guess you could make the case the Rays should've released Joe Nelson and given Abreu his spot.

Meloan was once a promising reliever with the Los Angeles Dodgers who moved to the Indians in the Casey Blake deal. He's had a bit of a rough go in Triple-A this season, mostly due to the homerun bug, and he's not really a prospect anymore. He throws a low-90s fastball and curve. He'll be placed on the Rays 40-man roster, but has options remaining. Meloan's career line in Triple-A is:

185 IP, 8.2 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9

He's actually always been effective against lefties, sort-of like Joe Nelson, only with a slight favoritism towards groundballs mixed in. Given his track record, I think it's fair to say he'll probably be a middle reliever for the Rays at some point in the near future.

He's no Winston Abreu, but I guess that's the price for freedom. Go flourish Winston.

Potential July 2nd Rays Signing: Shortstop Juan Castillo

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:02:31 -0000

Again with our old pal Kiley McDaniel:

Some news on two Dominican prospects that are currently unsigned, but not for long: SS Juan Castillo and RHP GianCarlos Santana. Castillo is negotiating with three teams, the Astros, Twins, and Rays, and the Astros appear to be the leader. Castillo is a offensive oriented shortstop that will likely move to third base or second base professionally. He should sign by Sunday, if not earlier, for a bonus in the low six figures.

Here's what Kiley said about Castillo in May:

19. Juan Castillo, SS, Dominican Republic
Height/Weight: 6'0"/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Castillo is an offense-oriented shortstop who will be moving off of the position early in his career. Many have him sliding over to third base, while others say second, and some would simply put him in left field. That's because there's some power projection to him; Castillo's best tool is his bat, but fringy speed will limit him and force that bat to determine the full extent of his value. The Yankees and Mariners have been tied to him, and the bonus could be in the low six figures, somewhere between $100-300,000.

Sounds like a potentially nice get if the Rays can land him.

Open Day Thoughts

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:19:58 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

2 days ago: Baseball fans watch a fireworks display inside the Rogers Centre following a Toronto Blue Jays' 5-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays in a baseball game in Toronto on Canada Day, Wednesday, July 1, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Evan Longoria sat at 820 plate appearances entering yesterday's game with a career wOBA of .384. As a 22/23-year-old, Alex Rodriguez posted a combined ~.398 wOBA in 1,320 plate appearances. Barry Bonds' wOBA at those ages was close to .365. David Wright's seasons resembled Longoria's nearly to a tee. Mike Schmidt wasn't a star at this age in his career, and Brooks Robinson would have one season of his illustrious career with a wOBA that tops Longoria's to date.

Talk about a June to forget. Matt Garza's ERA for the month looks nice, but his FIP is a plump 5.2. Blame it on the homeruns, decreased strikeouts, and increased walks. Somehow Garza stranded 90% of batters who reached base. That won't last, and neither will the 14% of fly balls going over the fences.

Not only is B.J. Upton now hitting above league average, but he's dangerously close to reaching 2 WAR. I take back what I said about reaching 4 WAR, I'm pretty sure he's going to reach it.

Back to Longoria for a second, he's on pace for a 7+ win season. Apparently Evan is really good.

Three with Texas, three more with Toronto,, three with Oakland, and then the all-star break. Going into the ‘halfway' point at 10 games above .500 would be a nice goal. Especially with a ridiculous road trip coming out of the break: 3 @ KC, 4 @ CHA, 3 @ TOR.