Just over a quarter of the season through, and I thought it’d be fun to see what some of players’ conventional stats would look like if you multiplied them by four.

Hitters

Starting Pitchers

Bullpen

Yan Gomes is having a good Spring. We've seen this kind of thing before, of course. I don't have to name anyone... But I think Gomes is perhaps more interesting than we give him credit for. He's only 24. He's shot through the minors pretty quickly, and hasn't had difficulty adjusting to the levels, remaining relatively consistent.

Offensively, his numbers were very similar to Sierra's and McDade's. His line was 250/317/464. His weakness is definitely the strikeout. He struck out every3.6 AB last year. If the Jays helped him with that aspect of his game this Spring, he could improve his overall numbers this year. He has some power. He hit a homer every 23 AB. D'Arnaud hit one every 22 AB.

He finished the year in AAA last year, but with Cooper, McDade, D'Arnaud and Jeroloman in AAA, there isn't a ton of room for him.

I've seen a few commenters say his defense is bad, but I've never read it elsewhere,so I don't know what to make of it.

I decided to put together a little project. Nothing complicated... I’ve listed all of the players who are either gone (e.g. Molina) or will receive a lesser role (e.g. Davis) in 2011, and I’ve examined whether we should expect an upgrade over 2011’s performance, or not. I didn’t take into account Encarnacion’s shuffle from 3B, DH and 1B since I’m guessing he’ll end up with a similar number of at bats anyway.

Jose Molina

171 AB, 757 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI

His replacement

Jeff Mathis: 90 AB, 557 OPS, 2 HR

JP Arencibia: 50 AB, 727 OPS, 4 HR

Travis D’Arnaud: 50 AB, 725 OPS, 2 HR

Verdict:

I think it’s safe to assume that JP will be getting more at bats this season. Last year, he and Molina almost split catching duties, until JP took on a larger role after a few weeks of play. I also suspect we’ll at least catch a glimpse of D’Arnaud. So all in all, I’d be surprise if Mathis gets many at bats. And thankfully so, since he’s quite possibly the worst hitter in the league. But he’ll surely do well in continuing to show JP the ropes on the defensive side of things. Still though, Molina had a good season and while getting JP more at bats will probably lead to a few more home runs, I don’t think the Jays will be better off in the backup Catcher spot next season. But the loss is probably insignificant.

Cory Patterson

317 AB, 665 OPS, 6 HR

His replacement:

Colby Rasmus: 200 AB, 754 OPS, 8 HR

Travis Snider: 117 AB, 730 OPS, 4 HR

Verdict:

Wow! We gave 317 AB to CoPa last season. Overall, he was pretty terrible. There are a few reasons he got so many at bats. Injuries to Davis and lacklustre performance by Snider are obvious reasons. He also got hot mid-summer and I think that bought him a little bit of a longer leash with Farrell. So we should get a really good upgrade over Patterson with more AB’s coming from Rasmus and Snider. Even using Rasmus and Snider’s career stats (which I’m hoping they exceed next year), they’ll give a good boost, and the home runs should be about doubled that of Patterson’s. They should also give a slight improvement in defense.

John McDonald

168 AB, 630 OPS, 2 HR

His replacement:

Luis Valbuena: 100 AB, 630 OPS, 2 HR

Yunel Escobar: 68 AB, 766 OPS, 2 HR

Verdict:

The fan fave, Johnny Mac. Surprisingly, (to me anyways) Valbuena’s career stats are similar to McDonald’s 2011 stats. If Escobar stays healthy all season, he’ll get a few extra at bats as well. Defensively, I don’t see a big difference. McDonald is quite good, but Valbuena and Escobar are capable as well. I won’t miss Johnny Mac on the base paths.

Juan Rivera

247 AB, 666 OPS, 6 HR

His replacement:

Travis Snider: 247 AB, 730 OPS, 9 HR

Verdict:

Juan Rivera had a terrible start to the season last season. He’s better than what his performance with the Jays was last season. Travis Snider’s career norms would be a nice improvement over Rivera’s 2011 with the Jays. If Snider hits like we think he can, then all bets are off. Of course, he could also hit like he did in 2011. Or, of course, Thames or Francisco could win the job.

Aaron Hill

396 AB, 584 OPS, 6 HR

His replacement

Kelly Johnson 396 AB, 784 OPS, 15 HR

Verdict:

Aaron Hill was bad in 2011. Jeff Mathis bad. You could plug almost anyone in there and it would be an upgrade over Hill’s 2011.. I think the fact that Kelly Johnson accepted arbitration is very telling. I believe he feels comfortable at the Rogers Centre and he thinks he could put up really big numbers next season and then get a big payday. I hope he’s right, but I’d be happy if he performed around his career averages.

Rajai Davis

320 AB, 623 OPS, 1 HR

His replacement:

Colby Rasmus: 150 AB, 754 OPS, 6 HR

Verdict:

With the departure of Wells, Davis was given the starting CF job last season. Unfortunately for him and for us, he was injured and was never able to get into a groove. It’s too bad because he was a favourite of mine and I was hoping he would be able to hit like he did in 09. One of the most exciting moments of last season came with his 1st at bat. I might be wrong, but if I recall, he legged out a single, then stole 2nd and 3rd. Barring a trade, he’ll be the 4th OF next season and he should get some at bats against left handed pitching. But I’m taking away 170 AB from him and giving them to Rasmus. Given his poor showing last season, that’ll be a nice upgrade offensively. And Davis will get into plenty of games as a pinch runner, as well.

Mike McCoy

197 AB, 561 OPS, 2 HR

His replacement

Brett Lawrie: 75 AB, 953 OPS, 6 HR

Luis Valbuena: 75 AB, 630 OPS, 1 HR

Verdict:

I’m sure McCoy is a great guy to have in the clubhouse and all, but honestly, I hope he spends more time in Vegas next year. Of course, Valbuena might not be much better, but I think he at least has a bit more power. A full season of Lawrie will help take away some at bats from the McCoy’s and Valbuena’s.

Jayson Nix

136 AB, 554 OPS, 4 HR

His replacement:

Brett Lawrie: 136 AB, 953 OPS, 10 HR

Verdict:

Almost brings a tear to my eye.

DeWayne Wise

32 AB, 500 OPS, 2 HR

His replacement:

Anthony Gose: 32 AB, 700 OPS

Verdict:

I’m just guessing here that Gose will be a September call up.

Adam Loewen

32 AB, 610 OPS, 1 HR

His replacement:

Anthony Gose: 32 AB, 700 OPS

Verdict:

I’m just guessing here that Gose will be a September call up.

Conclusion:

Assuming there are no injuries and no other signings or trades, the Jays should see significant improvements in LF, CF, 3B, 2B, backup IF. We should also hope for an improvement from Lind at 1B and a more consistent Encarnacion at DH. There is always a risk that Bautista takes a step backward, Escobar has an off season and that Lawrie struggles in his 1st full season.

Considering the Jays had the league's 5th best offense, I think it bodes well for next season on the offensive side of things.

As I'm sure it's been pointed out before here, the Jays had MLB's 6th best offense last year. Offense isn't necessarily a huge problem going into next season. That fact is even more evident when you think of the upgrades they're expected to get next year at CF, 3B, 2B and maybe even 1B and C, relative to 2011. That being said, if you can improve, even marginally in some areas, why not do it.

One way to potentially improve is by taking a flyer on Manny Ramirez. Yep, here we go again with Manny... It makes for some interesting discussion, in my opinion. After jump, I'll list what I see as some of the positives of making such a move, and I'm putting up a poll. Personally, I'd enjoy seeing it happen, if anything, for the entertainment value. I seriously doubt it's going to happen though. AA had a clear opportunity to do so last season and didn't jump on it. He'll be even less inclined to do so now that it makes even less sense than last season.

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It's a legitimate question. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense does it? The 2B market is quite thin. Are there really any 2B out there that are available (trade or FA) and clearly better than Johnson? And Johnson is a good hitter and all, but his bat doesn't play particularly well in LF. I tend to think that Thames and Snider can hit just as well as Johnson.

So... What does this mean, if anything?

1) They think there is legitimately a better option at 2B. One that is worth pushing Johnson to LF and keeping both Thames and Snider in the minors. (As mentioned, there isn't much that is available out there regarding 2B's. And I'd like to see at least one of Thames or Snider get a shot in 2012)

2) They think that Johnson's defense at 2B is so awful that he has no business playing there. (I know he's not great, but I didn't see him as that much of a defensive liability)

3) AA just said that to try to get Johnson not to accept arbitration, so he could get the picks. (This seems to be the popular opinion among bloggers. I don't know. Who else would have manned 2B? Maybe AA had something in the works and Johnson's signing put a damper on those plans? Still though, it seems like an underhanded way to do business, even though I realize how much the Jays value draft picks)

...And I hope I don't get banned from BBB for suggesting #4

4) They really are (or were) considering moving Lawrie to 2B and Bautista to 3B. (The Jays don't have many exciting prospects coming up at the 2B position. For 2013 and beyond, does AA want to overpay in trading for someone or acquiring someone via free agency, or does he want to maximize the value of both Lawrie and Bautista by putting them in more "premium-type" positions? Perhaps they see that Bautista is better suited for 3B after all, and that Lawrie's speed and agility would work well at 2B. The outfield looks much easier to fill with good players than the infield at the moment)

Perhaps Scott Carson was right?

For what it's worth though, I'm probably the one that is way out in left field on this one. AA hasn't given any clues that indeed this type of move would be in the cards. A quote from AA is below.

“Kelly’s got positional flexibility as well,” Anthopoulos said. “He played a lot of left field before. We talked about signing him as a left fielder. There’s absolutely a scenario where he could be a candidate for left field. So we haven’t ruled (that) out if there’s a player we can get. The fact that Kelly can go out there and play left, (means) there’s more competition for (jobs) and he can do more things for us. We’re open-minded. Again, if we can get a core piece, a controllable piece, we have the ability to do that.”

I sure miss baseball: I know it's only November and we have long Winter ahead of us, but wow, I sure do miss baseball already. I miss my routine of enjoying a nice relaxing ball game at the end of my busy, chaotic days. Oh well, I got the Movie Network for the Winter, so that'll have to do. I tried to get into hockey again, but I can't. I just can't.

Lind/Encarnacion: I'm not too optimistic on having Lind and Encarnacion manning 1B and DH. To me, those are 2 holes. Now, if they sign another good hitter to go along with those 2 guys, and you might be alright. I think the biggest thing is that they need to keep Lind away from LHP somehow.

That being said, I get the feeling that the Jays have different plans. I think they want to give Lind another full opportunity, given his team-friendly contract. AA looks for players with upside, and Lind (given his 09 season) is one of those guys. Encarnacion, to a lesser extent is, as well. However, I don't think that this is the only reason. I have a feeling that there could be a possibility that we might see D'Arnaud earlier than say, a September callup. If the Jays want to make a decision for who will be the Catcher of the future (i.e. 2013 and beyond), they surely need to see how D'Arnaud plays on the big league squad no? And that, with a decent sample size? So I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays stuck with Jeroloman as the backup Catcher from April-June, with D'Arnaud getting the call as early as July

So how does that affect the 1B/DH situation? Say they split the Catching duties 50/50... In that scenario, they're not getting enough at bats. However, if by that time Lind hasn't figured out how to hit lefties, you've got platoon partners there, and also a couple of hitters that can spell EE.


Closers

John Farrell was talking on the Fan 590 today and was discussing closers. He mentioned Nestor Molina as an internal candidate. I think it's a fantastic idea. However, I wouldn't limit it to him. I would throw in Drabek, Hutchison and maybe Dustin McGowan in that mix. Basically, whomever doesn't make the cut as the 5th starter, gets a shot at closing. Let that person take on that role for a few years, then, if it makes sense, convert him back to a starter. In a sense, it's almost like following the model the Rangers have established for some of their better pitchers.

I never understood why a guy like Joe Inglett doesn’t get an opportunity to get a full time job.  I remember JP Ricciardi saying once that a guy like Joe Inglett would never get the benefit of the doubt.  Nice to guy to say that in a public forum eh?  Regardless of what I think, he may be right.  But again, I don’t get it.  Defensive metrics (and my eyes) say he’s fine at 2B.  And in comparison to other 2B out there (albeit in a small sample size of 900 AB), he’s pretty good offensively, though he won’t get you many home runs.  I remember him as a tough out, who could take a walk, and made decent LD-type contact more often than not.  He became a fan-favourite, and at least seemed like a decent guy to have in your clubhouse.

He could probably be had on a minor league deal, so they wouldn’t need to guarantee him anything.  That way, he can compete with McCoy, Hechavarria, and perhaps other low-key FA signings for the starting job.

To be honest, I don’t know why he wouldn’t have an edge over almost anyone else out there.  The free agent market is terrible, and in looking at the other teams’ 2B, I don’t see any realistic trades out there (though feel free to propose any).  Take a look at the career numbers of the available 2B.  How is Inglett any worse than anybody in there (considering offense, defense, age and salary).

Now I won’t pretend that Kelly Johnson isn’t much better than Inglett (because of his expect 20 HR power).  But Johnson is going to cost money and is worth picks.  There’s also going to be a lot of competition, so the Jays might not even be able to keep him if they want to.

Castillo, Infante and Felipe Lopez could also be decent stopgap options.

Available 2B after jump

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It's almost impossible to predict what Alex Anthopoulos is going to do with his roster at any given moment.  It seems like all his moves come out of completely nowhere.  However, I'd be willing to bet almost anything that he's going to sign a proven closer this Winter.  That may or may not be a good thing.  I'm not a huge fan of the "closer" concept.  That being said, 60-70 innings of good pitching can't be a bad thing.  And if they're going to spend money on a closer, this might be a good year to do so.

The depth of high quality relievers is incredible this offseason.  Also, the Yankees are set, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox would overpay a closer this year, and I doubt there are that many other teams willing to break the bank on a closer.  That could lead to some pretty good deals this Winter.  The Jays themselves have a number of good  low cost relievers (Janssen, Carreno, Litsch, Perez, Villanueva, Cecil?).  They could afford to add one or two elite arms to anchor the bullpen.

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For discussion purposes, I put together what I believe are the payroll obligations.  In some cases, I'm guesstimating how much of a raise some might be due.  So these numbers are variable, but I think overall it should be reasonably close.  Same thing with the potential free agent signings, those are guesses.  And Darvish's guess includes the posting fee.

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I’m a sucker for feel-good sports movies.  And in that genre, they don’t come much better than Rudy.  So when I saw in a recent BBB game thread that Joey Kirby had shared the following comment from a thread on sportsnet.ca:

Whenever Jeroloman gets in, I expect the crowd to yell R-U-D-Y
by Steve 9:09 PM

I knew I had to try this little experiment.  It’s sort of an experiment on the power and influence of the internet, and specifically the BBB website on the Jays fan base (or at least those who attend the games in person).

Brian Jeroloman, who at best, will become a backup Catcher, has yet to appear in a game.  If he doesn’t appear in a game for the Jays, he won’t have a stat line at the end of the season.  There are 2 home games remaining vs. the LA Angels.  I’m sure he, the fans, and his teammates would all love to see him get into a game, and it would be even better if it was a home game.

Here’s where we come in, and here’s what I’m suggesting...  If he hasn’t come into the game by the 7th inning of Thursday’s game, the home crowd should start chanting “Brian, Brian, Brian” or “Jeroloman, Jeroloman, Jeroloman” until John Farrell puts him into the game.  Bottom line is that it would be fun, and I’m sure his teammates would really get a kick out of it.

Whether we can pull it off is another question.  But maybe if everyone who reads this idea, passes it along, the message will get out there and it could happen.  Either way, it doesn’t hurt to try, and like I said, at the very least, it’s an interesting experiment.

We all know that the less "premium" defensive positions are most likely DH, 1B and LF.  The other positions often require a special athlete with certain attributes to properly handle those positions, whether be it speed, arm strength, reflexes, footwork, etc.  That leaves some flexibility for manning the DH, 1B and LF.  You can try to find the best possible combination of hitters to fill these spots.  In my opinion, the use of platoons is often the best way to exploit this.  There are obviously some exceptions.  Some players (more often RHB) don't have big differences in their splits.  While others are so good that it wouldn't seem right to platoon them.  For instance Ortiz and Fielder are only OK vs. LHP, but you wouldn't platoon them, at least not yet...

So I decided to take a look at one particular potential combination for 2012, just for fun.

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A few fact:

-Dustin McGowan began his rehab assignment July 30.

-A believe the time limit for rehab assignments is 1 month.

-His current status on MilB.com is "Rehab assignment".

-MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm reported in his inbox that the Jays could put him on the 7 day DL, and they could start the whole rehab process all over again.

-His last outing was on July 25th for Dunedin.  He threw 3 innings.  I don't know how many pitches he threw though.  I'm guessing around 50 or so however, given the high # of K's and BB's he had.

-Wil Ledezma is still on the 25 man roster

Bottom line is that we should hear something soon from the Jays.

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Another off day, another optimism from your resident, self appointed BBB psychologist.  Just when it looked as though the Jays were going to go on some kind of run, they lose two in a row to an Indians team that was on somewhat of a skid.  And they're back at .500.  Some of the bats seem to have awoken, but the starting pitching has become a little worrisome.

That being said, some may remember an optimism post I put up in early May entitled "Cheer up my Fellow Jays Fans" http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2011/5/5/2156468/cheer-up-my-fellow-jays-fans.  In that post, I went on to describe how tough the April schedule was and how the May schedule looked better.  I suggested that with 25 games remaining on the month's schedule, the Jays could go 15-10, bringing their record to 29-27 (they were 14-17 at the time).

According to my math, they went 14-10 (Tigers game rained out), bringing them to 28-27.

After the jump, I'll discuss how I think June looks.

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I'm not really qualified to make this FanPost.  And I'm not basing these predictions on a whole lot of research or statistical analyses.  This is just my feeling based on the bunch of Jays related material I read on a daily basis and the MiLB boxscores I sift through regularly.  I guess that's what's nice about BBB.  You don't need to be an expert to provide your opinion to a wider audience of Jays fans.  Feel free to discuss when you think we might get to see some of the Jays prospects.  Oh and I didn't include some of the prospects in the lower levels, partly due to the fact that they're too far away, and partly due to the fact that I know little about some of them, at this point.  ETA's after the jump.

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The Jays are now 14-17 and tied for last in the AL East.  There seems to be a little bit of doom and gloom around the Jays blogosphere.  I know that I find myself feeling that way from time to time, particularly after a tough loss like on Tuesday's Jays-Rays game.  That being said, I've got a couple of tidbits to point out to try to put things into perspective. 

1. The Jays have played 20 of their 31 games, under very difficult conditions.  For those 20 games, they were 8-12.  For the remaining 11 home games, they were a respectable (but unspectacular) 6-5.

a) They played 10 games against the AL West and 6 of them on the West Coast.  They historically don't play that well out there (with the recent exception of Texas).

b) They played 4 in Fenway, during the time that the Sox were actually hot.

c) They played 3 in Yankee stadium, a tough place to play for any team.

d) They played 3 in Tropicana Field, where the Jays almost never fare well.

2.  They've had injuries.  Out of the 31 games played so far, EE played 22, JBau 25, Davis 13 and Hill 16.  Morrow has missed 3 starts.  They've also had bullpen injuries, but really we can't complain about the pen.  Those are some pretty significant contributors missing significant time.  Think about it.  As good as Bautista's been, he's only played 80% of the games.

3.  Rivera and Snider started off pretty badly.  Rivera has turned it around and hopefully Cooper can start contributing (until Snider returns) at a better rate than Snider did during the 1st month.

4.  Despite a little bit of a rough start, the Jays are well within striking distance and nobody is running away with anything in the AL East.  Heck, the Sox are 14-17 too and they had a much easier schedule than the Jays in April.

Why things should probably get better in May?


Out of the remaining May games, the Jays have 17 home games and 8 away games, and many against teams that are lesser opponents, in my opinion.

They should have their regular lineup back, with Hill returning, Bautista returning, and Davis now being back.  EE could heat up any time (and hit a few HR's), and I wouldn't be suprised to see Snider back at some point.  Oh, and Morrow is looking like an ace!  I could see the Jays going on a little bit of a roll soon and maybe finishing off the month's remaining 25 games, with a record of 15-10, which would bring them up to 29-27.  Who knows?  Maybe even better.

No Jays game tonight.  I'm a little bored so I'll do a bit wild speculation regarding the rotation spot currently held by Jo-Jo Reyes.  Assuming Reyes is on a very short leash and the he doesn't stick around, and assuming they want to keep Cecil down in Vegas for a few more starts, I'm wondering whether the Jays would like to take a look at Ray (aka Reidier) Gonzalez.  It would seem, at least so far, that AA is very interested in looking at what he's got, and in particular those who he's about to potentially lose.  According to the link below, Gonzalez was put on the roster in 2009.  So I believe next year would potentially be his last option year.  They also, at the time, considered promoting him to the big club at the time.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091119&content_id=7691216&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

Now, anyone who's followed Gonzalez's  minor league career knows that last year was a horrible year for him - almost historically horrible.  His combined ERA between AA and AAA was 8.32!!  I have no idea what happened because prior to that his MiLB career numbers were very good.  In fact, throw last year out (and I know you can't really do that) and his minor league career ERA would be 3.13.  To put that into perspective, Kyle Drabek's career ERA is 3.41.  Again, I know ERA is "so 1990's", but it's still an indication that he's been relatively good, aside from last season.  Below are Gonzalez's career numbers.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=460295

As I write this, Gonzalez has just thrown 8.2 scoreless innings with New Hampshire to lower his impressive ERA to 1.38 and this in 32.2 IP.

Just another interesting pitcher to throw into the mix.

How do options work?

When a player is added to a 40-man roster for the first time, the major league team is permitted three optional assignments of his contract, or three "option years." This gives them the option to assign that player to the minor leagues without requiring him to clear waivers. For each season thereafter in which the player is assigned to a minor league team, one option is used up.

When a player is out of options, he can still be assigned to the minor leagues, but first he must clear waivers.

A player can receive a fourth option if he has less than five seasons of pro experience. Draftees who immediately sign a major league contract will qualify unless they reach the majors quickly and stick there. Otherwise, they'll have their three options exhausted after their first three years in pro ball. A season is defined as any year in which the player spends 90 days on the active list. Short-season and Rookie leagues don't last 90 calendar days, so a player assigned to those leagues for an entire year won't accrue a season of pro experience. Also if a player has a long-term injury, he usually won't be credited for a season that year. (The exception is if he goes on the disabled list after spending 60 days on an active list, in which case the DL time counts as service time.)

(Hat tip: Baseball America)

After the jump, I'll attempt to sort out who, with the Jays, has options, and why it's important.  I won't discuss those for which it is extremely unlikely that they be optioned to the minors, like Romero or Escobar.  Also, feel free to correct if I'm wrong on anything below.  I'm doing this fanpost as much to educate myself as anyone else.

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I can't find much interesting Jays-related reading material tonight (I've already read it all!), so I figured I'd put up a post, mostly to get some discussions going about the different things going on in Jays Spring Training.

The 4th and 5th starter:

Jo-Jo Reyes:  It's early, but I really think he needs a good outing tomorrow to stay in the race.  Pitchers are starting to build up their innings and there may not be enough available innings to give him soon if he doesn't show that he's a true contender.  I was never terribly excited about the prospect of having him head North as the 5th starter anyway.  Regardless, he still has a shot at LH BP role too.

Scott Richmond:  Basically, same as above.  However, he stood even more of an outside chance than Reyes, given the fact that he has options.  I'm pulling for him and have faith in him (I think his 09 2nd half results were a combination of fatigue and injury).  However, at this point it looks as though he will be an insurance policy working out of Vegas.

Drabek:  Hasn't pitched in a Grapefruit game yet (tomorrow).  It's hard to say what the front office has in mind for him.  Do they want him to stay in the minors for a few weeks to keep him under control for an extra season?  If that's not in the plans, I'd have to think he holds an edge on the 4th or 5th spot.

Zep:  It might very well come down to what the Jays want to do with Drabek.  He hasn't started out very well.  Of course, it's extremely early, and all we see are game boxscores.  The Jays are obviously watching him under different situations also (e.g. bullpens, etc).  Still, at this point, if I were to guess, I'd say he's probably at risk of not making the cut.

Litsch:  He's had a great start to pre-season.  He also has longest and best track record out of the candidates.  It would seem that he is now fully healthy and we're hearing good things about him from the coaching staff.  It also sounds as though he brings a great attitude with him to work.  I would be very surprised if he didn't make the team, and I hope this is an early indication that he's going to perform like 2008, because that'd go a long way toward replacing the loss of Marcum.

The reserves:

Nothing much to say here.  Patterson is getting lots of AB's, which is expected.  However, both he and Mastro have not hit particularly well yet.  McCoy has hit better, but the sample size is extremely small in any event.  It's too hard to venture a guess either way.  Podsednick is still recovering from his foot injury and we can add him to the mix soon of bench candidates.  I'd be surprised if Patterson didn't get a job, but the other one is a toss-up.

Surprising performances:

Eric Thames and Brett Lawrie are really turning heads.  Both are likely heading for AAA, but it is not impossible that:

1) Eric Thames gets the starting job in the OF and Rivera becomes the 4th OF (or is traded)

or

2) Brett Lawrie gets the starting job at 3B, pushing Bautista to RF.

Again, these are very unlikely scenarios, but if they both continue to impress, there is an outside chance that they could force someone's hand.

What do you all think?  Any other interesting stories you think are developing?

Is it possible that with all the negative talk surrounding Wells' contract and his terrible 07 and 09 seasons that we're under-rating him?  And that with all the hype surrounding Crawford's free agency, that he's being overrated?

Who's better:  Wells or Crawford?

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I remember thinking not too long ago.  "Doc is having a typical awesome season, but it looks like he'll fall short of winning the Cy Young award, due to crazy-good seasons from a few players, such as Ubaldo and Carpenter".

However, I looked at the stats recently, and it looks as though Halladay may now be the leader, in terms of Cy Young candidacy (unless W-L is the most important stat to voters).  Still lots of baseball left to play, but so far...

Halladay 12-8 ERA 2.21 171 IP  149 K

Wainwright 14-6 ERA 2.23  153 IP  142 K

Jimenez  16-2  ERA 2.67  141 IP  126 K

Carpenter  11-3  ERA 2.93  156 IP  128 K