The FX network has ordered a new semiscripted comedy about Fantasy Football from the makers of Curb Your Enthusiasm and Seinfeld.    It's called The League and is set to premiere in the fall (nice timing)

WARNING, THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FANTASY

I'll admit it . . .  I've seen every episode of The Bachelorette this season.  I have a reason and it's not to win points with the wife.  One of the Bachelors (Kiptyn) is a family friend, so I feel that having a horse in the race gives me a pass.  So, how does the Bachelorette equal the All-Star Game as the headline says?  Here are the 3 reasons.

1. Tons of build up and outrage

Every year's All Star game gets a ton of hype, people vote for close to two months, there's a final vote, and there's outrage and anger over the rosters.  The day the rosters are announced columnists from around the country write 1000 words about how their home town guy was robbed.  When ESPN.com posts the rosters they're accompanied by a These Guys Were Snubbed piece.  The outrage is included in the announcement!  Think Olbermann covering a Palin rally or Fox News insta-reviewing a Obama press conference.  You've got to love instant, predictable outrage.

It's the same way for The Bachelorette.  You're going to have to trust me on this.  Over the past months I've seen more chatter on Facebook from my female friends about The Bachelorette than anything else.  And by chatter, I mean pissed off women.  The uproar over this show is equal to that of the All Star rosters, even when you consider the frothy anger upside of the Bill Plaschke-types.  If you heard the BS Report podcast with Bill's friend Jacko from last week you heard the The Sports Gal's reaction to watching The Bachelorette, "HE'S THERE FOR THE WRONG REASONS!"  Classic.  Here's one of her recent Twitter posts - "If Ted Bundy were one of the Bachelorette guys, how many episodes would've passed before Jillian became suspicious? I say 7."  Here's another for good measure - "Jillian must be colorblind with all the red flags she missed. Even my daughter figured out Wes was there for the wrong reasons and she's 4."  Love it.

2.  No one will remember them a month from now

Two months of build up on both sides here and is anyone going to remember the results a month from now?  Nope.

This could be said about any reality show but I'm attempting to be topical.  Stick with me here.  Unless there was somekind of John Kruk/Randy Johnson moment or if my hometown guy did something (Gwynn scoring winning run) I never remember the All Star Game.  The same goes for The Bachelorette.  All the women spending 3 hours of their Monday nights on Bachelorette message boards won't remember what happens either save some Jason/Whatshername watershed moment.

3. The Hosts/Announcers are Tools

Chris Harrison and Joe Buck are there names.  If you're familiar with either of their work you're nodding your head right now.  They are tools and make both shows hard to watch/uncomfortable/unwatchable.

Enjoy the All Star Game everyone.  I dare you to remember the result on August 13th.

Leo Nunez - He's battled an ankle injury this past week but notched 2 saves, hit 96 on the gun, and K'd 4 in 2.1 innings since Marlins closer Matt Linstrom went down.  He and Dan Meyer are sharing the closer job for the time being but Nunez is the righty and looks to get the majority of the chances.

Hank Blalock - Despite the low batting average I've really enjoyed owning Blalock this year.  If you play his matchups correctly he can be a very effective spot starter.  Against righties he's hit 14 HR in 165 AB.  You can find uses for a 1B/3B eligible player with numbers like that.

Adam Wainwright - I was shocked to see Wainwright come out for the 9th inning in Tuesday's game against San Francisco.  He had just given up the tying run in the 8th and was at 105 pitches.  All he did in the 9th was strike out the side (all swinging) after giving up a leadoff single to Edgar Renteria.  It was an ace-like performance with 12 Ks and allowed the Cardinals the opportunity for a win despite being shut down by Matt Cain.  He still walks a few too many and isn't efficient enough to regularly go deep into games but the Cards figure to improve their offense with trades and the back end of their bullpen has been strong.  Wainwright is a solid #3 fantasy starter.

Ricky Romero - I'm kicking myself after letting Romero get picked up in my shallow 12 team mixed league yesterday.  He dominated MLB's leader in runs scored (the Rays) Tuesday morning with 8 innings of shutout ball giving up 4 hits and striking out 7.  If you take out his 2 starts after coming off the DL (impossible I know but just follow me) he'd be 6-1 with 1.85 ERA.  Those 2 starts were at Baltimore, when they were raking, and at home against Boston.  He's also gone at least 6.1 innings in every start since that 5/31 start vs. Boston.  If he's somehow available in your mixed league stop reading this and go get him.

Yovani Gallardo -YoGa has quickly turned into a fantasy #1 starting pitcher.  With his 12 K's over 7 innings on Tuesday his K/9 now sits at an impressive 9.80.  Only Verlander, Vazquez, and Lincecum best him in that category.  I started thinking about keepers on my 12 team mixed keeper league and began wondering if Gallardo is a definate keeper.  If he keeps up his pace he should be a 3rd-6th rounder in '10.  He just turned 23 this February.

Hanley Ramirez - He's not giving up the title of consensus #1 fantasy pick to Pujols without a fight.  Ramirez is on a tear right now with a 33 RBI June.  He's hit .360 since May 1st and looks to finish the year with .330+, 100 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 25 steals.  He's currently 5th ranked in Yahoo's player rankings.

Cody Ross - Ross isn't finding himself on too many mixed league waiver wires these days.  He's up to 48 RBI and 14 HR and on pace to up his career highs in HR (22) and RBI (73)

Johnny Damon - With the short porch in right field, Damon's on his way to a new career high (26) in HR.  He's currently at career high levels in SLG, OPS, and HR/AB.  To begin the year we might have expected a 15/25 year but Damon's flipping his career norms and may end up with a 25/15.  Either way, he's providing strong #2 OF numbers.

FYI, you can follow me on Twitter (@RyanKaltenbach).  I know, so original.  I swear I was doing it at least 2 weeks before everyone else . . . . meaning February.

When there were only two baseball games played on Monday I was reminded of the importance of filling in your lineups on days when you might have holes in your roster.  If you were to pick up just one player to fill in your  roster every Monday and Thursday of the baseball season you'd have 52 extra games played.  That's roughly 120 extra AB.  By doing this you could expect an extra 6 HR, 18 runs, 18 RBI, and 3-5 steals.  That could easily mean 2-5 points in your league and possibly the difference between 1st place and 3rd place. 

If you choose you Monday/Thursday players wisely you gain even more of an advantage.  Many players have strong splits that you need to be aware of when choosing your pick ups.  In 12 team mixed leagues you can expect many of the following players available as free agents.  Check out their splits.  If you pick them at the right time you can really cash in.

Cody Ross - Day - 1.015 OPS with 5 HR in 76 AB.  Night - .681 OPS with 5 HR in 153 AB. 

Michael Cuddyer - Home - .983 OPS with 17/21 BB/K.  Away - .662 OPS with 9/26 BB/K

Juan Rivera - Lefties - 1.410 OPS including 6 HR in 51 AB.  Righties - .681 OPS with 3 HR in 157 AB

Mark Teahan - Home - .904 OPS with 6 HR in 119 AB. Away - .704 OPS with 2 HR in 102 AB.

Jose Guillen - Righties - .813 OPS with 20 RBI in 106 AB.  Lefties - .657 OPS with 7 RBI in 67 AB

Chris Duncan - Away - .925 OPS with .320 BA in 100 AB.  Home - .602 OPS with .194 BA in 98 AB.

Andrew Jones - Day - 1.460 OPS with 3 HR in 28 AB.  Night - .684 OPS with 4 HR in 85 AB.  Righties - 1.000 OPS with 5 HR in 56 AB.  Lefties - .751 OPS with 2 HR in 57 AB.

Ryan Garko - Lefties - 1.096 OPS with 3 HR in 35 AB.  Righties - .667 OPS with 3 HR in 110 AB.

All Star Game selections give us lots to complain about.  Year after year we moan and complain about the selections yet we forget who won and who even played days after the game .  Thus is life in a 12-24 hour news cycle.  Would we remember things differently if the players were picked strictly because of their fantasy value?  Probably not but let's do it anyways.  For your mild amusement here are the All Star Game selections for the NL and AL based strictly on 5x5 fantasy value.  Each player's current fantasy ranking is listed next to his name.  The rankings are Yahoo Fantasy and go through Tuesday.

American League

C - Victor Martinez (25)

1B - Justin Morneau (5)

2B - Ian Kinsler (11)

SS - Jason Bartlett (23)

3B - Evan Longoria (13)

OF - Carl Crawford (4)

OF - Jason Bay (9)

OF - Torii Hunter (10)

SP - Zack Greinke (2)

SP - Roy Halladay (7)

SP - Edwin Jackson (16)

SP - Jeff Weaver (28)

SP - Justin Verlander (69)

RP - Andrew Bailey (41)

RP - Frank Francisco (53)

RP - Joe Nathan (74)

Reserves

OF Nelson Cruz (14)

1B Mark Teixeira (15)

OF Adam Jones (17)

2B Aaron Hill (24)

C Joe Mauer (31)

Notable AL absences include Johnny Damon (26), Adam Lind (30), Miguel Cabrera (37), Curtis Granderson (42), Erik Bedard (76), Ramon Ramirez (83), David Aardsma (103)

NL All Stars after the jump

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Juan Rodriguez of Sun-Sentinel.com wrote an article yesterday arguing that Dan Uggla is in the middle of his finest season.  As a Dan Uggla owner I'm painfully aware of his current .212 average.  I knew he was in the middle of a hot streak but he's STILL hitting .212!  Upon further review I concluded that Rodriguez is right.  Let's take a closer look.

Uggla's current line is .330/.441/.772 is down from his career .339/.484/.823 but that doesn't tell the whole offensive story.  When we look at his Walk rate and Strikeout rate we see a more developed approach and excecution at the plate. Rodriguez writes,

"Uggla's percentage of pitches taken has increased from 54.6 percent as a rookie to 58.6 percent this season, according to Baseball Info Solutions. Not only is Uggla a more discerning swinger, he's offering at and making contact with more strikes.

In 2006, 66.4 percent of the pitches Uggla took were balls compared to 72.3 percent this season. As a rookie, he swung and missed 24.5 percent of the time. That figure increased each of the next two seasons to 30.5 percent in 2008, behind only Mark Reynolds (39.0 percent), Ryan Howard (34.7 percent) and Justin Upton (33.3 percent), according to Stats, Inc. This season his percentage of swings that missed is down to 24.1. Uggla is on pace to strike out 142 times after averaging 169 the last two seasons."

In May he had 16 walks to 23 Ks.  The only other time his BB/K rate was that high was May '07 when he had a 1.005 OPS.   But in May '09 his OPS was a measley .745.  So what's the difference?  All of you BABIP junkies out there are screaming at your screens.  You're right, it's his BABIP.  It's currently .220, well below his pre 2009 career BABIP of .300.  It's been well established that individuals have their own BABIP levels.  Some are higher or lower based on many factors like speed, power, and home park.  But Uggla's '09 BABIP is a cool 80 points below his established level.  With this said, we can expect his average to rise and if he continues to improve his BB and K rates he may have his first season with a OBP north of .380.  If his Slugging % settles in at career norms we could be looking at a .880+ OPS 2nd baseman.  Also, Uggla became the fastest 2nd baseman to 100 career homeruns on Tuesday night.  Not too shabby for a hacking Rule 5 guy.

Let's look at a few of his more interesting HR moments of the year: 

Here's the "Pitching Wedge hitting a house off the back of the green"

Here's the "You buy this hat and you get a free bowl of soup. Looks good on you though"

Here's the "My hip surgery won't be as painful as this moment" - Brett Myers

Justin Upton's first hit in '09 came in the Diamondback's 8th game.  When he stepped to the plate in the 10th inning on April 14th he was 0 for 15.  Since that time he's hitting .381 and is on a run only rivaled by the currently inhuman Joe Mauer.

I was lucky enough to pick him up on May 1st in a shallow league.  At the time he was hitting .250 with 2 HR and 8 RBI.  Since then he's hitting a cool .393 with 25 runs, 7 HR, 21 RBI, and 5 steals. 

Let's take a look at Justin Upton's greatness with a Did You Know segment:

Did you know that Justin Upton . . . .

- has a 1.000+ OPS against 7 of his 11 opponents in '09?

- is 21 yrs old and has a career .836 OPS?  He's still the 3rd youngest player in the NL.

- has a career 1.098 OPS in the playoffs?  Oh yeah, he was 19 in the 2007 playoffs.

- is hitting .395/.457/.778 from the third spot in the order?  Guess where he's staying?

- has a OPS+ of 161 in '09?

- is Yahoo's 6th ranked fantasy player in May?

- is Yahoo's 9th ranked OF?

- leads the NL in triples with 4?

- is 2nd in the NL in XBH with 25?

- hit this frozen rope?  You have to love the home run call

- hit this moon shot?  Wally Moon would be proud.

- 's homerun's average 421 feet?  That's 24 feet longer on average than the rest of the NL.

In March, I asked Chris Liss of Rotowire (known lover of Upton) who would be taken in the 10th round or later in 2009 drafts but would end up a being top 40 pick in the 2010 draft.  His answer was Justin Upton.

Let's not sugarcoar things, the Washington Nationals are an awful baseball team.  They currently sit at 11-28 and are on the fast track to having the 1st overall pick in 2010 draft.  But their 2009 failings haven't come because of their bats.  Their offensive success has flown under the radar because of the greater teams success . . . or lack thereof.

Let's take a closer look:

2008 OBP/SLG/OPS: .323/.373/.696

2009 OBP/SLG/OPS: .364/.449/.812

They're currently 3rd in MLB in OPS, 5th in SLG, 3rd in OBP, and 5th in Total Bases.

Anytime you add Adam Dunn and a healthy Nick Johnson and take away Austin Kearns and a Aaron Boone/Dmitri Young 1B platoon you're going to boost your offense.  The Nats have seen their franchise player (Ryan Zimmerman) blossom as they'd hoped he would when they extended him for 5 years at $45 million to a .411/.630/1.041 tune.

Nick Johnson has become a viable mixed league option recently with 12 runs and 20 RBI thus far in May.  His BABIP remains inhumanly high at .382 but his career .398 OBP means he's always known how to get on base regardless of how he's hitting at the time.  He's being whispered about in trade as a sell high in real life and should be in fantasy as well.

The master of the three true outcomes, Adam Dunn, is inline for his 5th straight 40 HR season (fingers crossed) with 11 through 39 games.  He's currently sitting at career high AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS levels.  His BABIP is a bit outside his career norm at .329 but is sustainable if he can keep his LD% around it's current 21.5.

Fake Teams would like to congratulate Cristian Guzman on taking 4 balls for the first time in 2009.  It only took him 26 games and 122 AB for him to acheive this marvelous feat.  He's ready for a huge fall in production with a BABIP at a cool .426.

So the next time you're streaming starting pitchers and you start licking your lips because the matchups against the Nats, think again.  Yes, you heard it here first cause ain' nobody talking bout the Nats!

We're a little more than 20% through the 2009 season.  Let's see how well you've been paying attention.

1. I lead the Yankees in HR and am the 16th rated player according to Yahoo.  Who am I?

2. I have 9 more HR than my next closest teammate.  Who am I?

3. I'm 21 years old, I hit in a pitchers park and my average, OBP, and slugging percentage have gone up all three years I've been in the majors.  Who am I?

4. I'm hitting .390 with 0 walks in 100 AB and my slugging percentage is .500.  In 2005, my first year with my current team, I hit .219 in 456 AB with a .574 OPS.  Who am I?

5. Four of the top ten preseason rated pitchers are currently ranked 500+.  Name them?  This will be much easier if you own any of them.

6. Four hitters that were widely drafted in the first 2 rounds are hitting .212 or worse.  Name them.

7. Two of the top three leaders in runs are on the same team.  What team are they on and who are they?

8. In '07-'08 I had 4 HR in 1117 AB.  In '09 I have 5 HR in 125 AB.  Who am I?

9. We are teammates who've combined for 14 HR and 15 singles and play in the park with the largest OF in the majors.  Who are we?

10. I'm a starting pitcher, I have as many walks as wins and I'm really freaking good.  Who am I?

Continue reading this post »

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies - The job is now his and seems it will be till the inevitable trade to a contender in July.  5 straight scoreless appearances, 4 Ks, 1 BB, 2 saves

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox - Even after Monday's win his '09 ERA is 5.11.  However, he's 2-0 in his last 4 starts (26 innings, 33 Ks, 10 walks)  Buy now before his ERA lowers even more and his cover is blown.

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers - The injury at the end of spring training put even more doubt into people's mind as to his '09 fantasy worth.  But since his return he's done nothing but throw strikes.  5 appearances, 5 innings, 3 hits, 0 BB, 5 Ks, 4 saves

Rod Barajas, Toronto Blue Jays - As Jorge Posada owners scramble to the FA wire they'll most likely be surprised by Barajas' recent output.  On April 22nd his OPS was .533.  He's raised it to .900+ including a 13 for 24 over the past 7 days.

Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels - Jonah Keri tweeted Monday evening that Mike Napoli is the most underrated player in baseball.  I'd have to agree.  After Monday night's 4/4 with 2 doubles he was hitting a cool .364/.493/.673.  All this with 2 steals thrown in. 

With Guerrero on the shelf for a while it appears that Napoli has taken away some DH ABs, and he's ready to put himself in the McCann, Mauer, Martin conversation.  Remember, this is a player who hit 20 HR in 78 games in '08 with a .960 OPS.  The guy can rake, and now he's getting more AB's.

Matt Garza - 2 good starts, 2 bad starts, 2 good starts.  The last 2 starts - 15.2, 5 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB, 12 Ks.  His WHIP sits at 1.00 and he appears to be building momentum.  His next two starts come against Cleveland (Anthony Reyes) at home and Oakland at home.

Edinson Volquez - As a 162 game owner of Volquez in '08 I grew accustomed to riding the BB/K rollercoaster.  After a difficult beginning to '09 he's been dealing in his last 2 outings.  16 innings, 4 hits, 0 earnies, 5 BB, 13 Ks.  The most interesting part of his last two starts are the 12/6 GB/FB rate in the home start and 4/11 rate in spacious Miami.  Is this a sign of maturity or a coinscidence?  I know this is a cop out but, we'll have to wait and see.

Chris Iannetta - With 4 HR in the last 5 games Iannetta is finally starting to reward his owners.  His OPS is up to .859 and 3 of the 4 HRs have come in SF and SD.  Now, the Rocks are back to Coors for 8 games against SF, FLA, HOU.

JJ Hardy - 4 hits and 3 BB with 5 RBI in his last 2 games.  His '09 BABIP is .172 . . . a correction is coming.

Curtis Granderson - Watch those Home/Road Splits.  He's at .671/1.009 for the year after another road HR on Tuesday night.  His BABIP is 75 points lower than his career average.  He's likely to up his average and lower his power output but it's a good sign that his power stroke is in midseason form.

1. All 4 starters for the NL West teams (Peavy, Kershaw, Jimenez, Johnson) pitching on Friday will post Quality Starts despite none of them sporting ERAs currently under 5.74.

2. David Wright will break out of his slump by hitting a homerun off of Chan Ho Park.

3. Mark Hendrickson will beat Roy Halladay and Sidney Ponson will beat Kevin Slowey.

4. The Heat will beat the Hawks to force a game seven and no one will care . . . not even basketball fans.

5. Albert Pujols will homer off Jordan Zimmerman on his way to a better May than April.

6. Keith Law will write a snarky Facebook status update.

7. Russell Martin will go 0-4.  Lifetime .415 OPS vs. Peavy.

8. Dan Uggla will strikeout 2+ times (facing Rich Harden).

9. You'll hear a Swine Flu joke before 10:00am.

10. You'll read this and laugh.

Fantasy players tend to focus most of their energy on the stats that are counted in their leagues.  Most of the time that includes the 5 x 5 vanilla stats but in other leagues OBP, holds, extra base hits may count.  Sometimes the most impressive stats lie outside the traditional roto categories and tell us why they're having their success.

Hitters - BA-Runs-HR-RBI-Steals followed by the (MIS) Most Impressive Stat

Albert Pujols - .343-20-7-25-3 (MIS) 16 BB, 4 K

Adam Jones - .348-20-3-17-0 (MIS) His 8 walks account for almost a third of his total walks in 2008.  His OBP has jumped from .311 in '08 to .410 in '09.

Kosuke Fukodome -.371-14-3-15-1 (MIS) 1.118 Road OPS in '09, .655 Road OPS in '08

Brandon Inge - .323-15-7-17-1 (MIS) 11 BB and 12 K.  Career 296 BB and 816 K

Adrian Gonzalez - .323-14-7-15-0 (MIS) Career high 4.08 pitches per PA, G/F career low 0.55

Jason Kubel - .328-10-4-15-0 (MIS) XBH every 6 AB

Jacoby Ellsbury - .289-12-1-6-10 (MIV) Most Impressive Video

Ryan Braun - .338-10-4-13-2 (MIS) 13/19, 7 runs, 3 HR, 8 RBI from April 21-April 25

Orlando Hudson - .355-17-2-8-4 (MIS) K every 12 AB and .452 OBP

Pitchers - 

Zack Greinke - 4 wins, 0.00 era, 0.86 whip, 36 K (MIS) - 6/1 K/BB with his 4 wins coming against Det, Cle, ChW, Tex

John Danks - 2 wins, 0.95 era, 0.84 whip,16 K (MIS) .136 BAA with .231 slugging against

Chad Billingsley - 4 wins, 2.05 era, 0.87 whip, 26 K (MIS) For the 4th straight year he's raised his K/BB (2.89) and reduced his pitches/inning (15.8)

Jonathon Broxton - 6 saves, 0.96 era, 0.32 whip, 15 K (MIS) 15/1 K/BB, lefties OBP is .056

Dan Haren - 1 win, 1.38 era, .88 whip, 26 K (MIS) Career low #P/IP at 14.7 and career highs in K/9 (9.00) and K/BB (5.20)

Johan Santana - 3 wins, 0.70 era, 0.90 whip, 37 K (MIS) 13 K/9, Righties hitting .137 against him.

1. Four of the top eight players on Yahoo's Player Rater are 2nd Basemen.  Name the four 2B.

2. This 13th ranked player has been benched 4 times in his team's first 15 games despite having no injury.  He's third in the NL in HR and RBI.  Name him.

3. This NL CF platoon has combined for a .369 with 15 runs, 3 HR, 14 RBI, and 2 SB.  Who are they?

4. This OF with 346 RBI in the last 3 years has 17 singles and no extra base hits in '09.  Who is he?

5. 37% K-rate, .333 OBP, .302 SLG.  Who's this "slugger"?

6. The top 4 ranked (according to Yahoo) relief pitchers reside in the AL and NL West.  Name them.

7. Team A is averaging a Home Run every 154.7 ABs and Team B is averaging a homerun every 17.6 ABs.  They're in the same division.  Name them.

8. These two teams pitching staff's are averaging K/9 at 9.00+.

9. Team A is 10-5 with a +38 run differential and Team B is 9-6 with a +3 run differential.  Who are they?

10. These 3 teams are a combined 2-16 in day games and 17-10 in night games.  Who are they?

Continue reading this post »

I can only imagine the NY Post headline tomorrow morning (something about Getting Wang Chunged or needing to cut off their Wang, no doubt).  Rest assured it won't be pretty after the Yanks were destroyed 22-4 by the Tribe. 

Here are some tasty statistical nuggets from the game and the series thus far -

- The Indians scored 14 runs in the 2nd inning (BTW, ESPN must have decided it took too much work to provide the play by play for the Top of the 2nd because they didn't include it)

- Chien-Ming Wang gave up 8 runs in 1.1 innings.  On the good side, he didn't walk anyone:)  His ERA after 3 starts is 34.50.  His WHIP is 4.83.  In 6 innings pitched (3 start mind you) he's given up 23 hits, 23 runs, 1 wild pitch and 6 walks

- Yankees pitchers combined for 236 pitches.  The Tribe's pitchers . . . 142.

- Poor Anthony Claggett made his major league debut following Wang in the 2nd inning.  Here's how his career started: Double, Double, Walk, Single, K, HR, HR, K.

- 17 HR in the first 3 games of New Yankee Stadium.  Yikes.

- Cleveland's WORST fantasy performance by a starting player was Ryan Garko who only went 2-6 with an RBI and run scored.  Yup, that was the worst.

- Asdrubal Cabrera had 2 RBI in his first 10 games this year and 5 today

- The Indians had 31 base runners today. 

- From the 2nd inning to the 5th inning the Indians scored 20 unanswered runs.

Tomorrow's matchup:  Carl Pavano vs. AJ Burnett.  Act accordingly.

Be sure to check out Fake Teams sister station Pinstripe Alley's comment section time line from today's game is something to behold.

I haven't read much Rick Reilly since he made the leap from SI's back page to ESPN.com.  However, I stumbled upon his brilliant Twistory Lessons the other day and it got me thinking about a fantasy version.  So I give you a blatently ripped off Twitter bit with a fantasy twist.

Fantasy Twistory Lessons - aka Fantasy Life Lessons in 140 characters or less

Dodgers Stadium is a pitchers park and I don't like the righty on righty matchup so I think I'll bench Tatis against Park tonight - 4/23/99

Esteban Loiaza for $2?  5.71 ERA and 87 Ks in 25 starts, I think you overpaid - 3/23/03

These starting pitchers are driving me crazy - 4/1-9/30 from 1875-eternity

Just sold high on Cliff Lee . . . can't believe I got Verlander for him.  Classic buy low/sell high.  What a sucker! - 4/25/08

Andruw Jones is due for a bounce back.  11th round?  I'll take him - 3/15/08

Emilio Bonawhatcio? - 3/19/09

Just drafted . . . love my pitching . . . Webb, Dice, Lester, Wang, and my super sleeper Carpenter.  Bullpen is Ryan, Motte, Street, and Morrow! - 3/30/09

My fantasy baseball league is with ESPN this year.  I hear they've made some big upgrades - 2/28/07

Tom Brady is a steal at the 6th pick . . . you guys are dead this year.  That Larry Johnson pick last year was just bad luck - 8/22/08

I don't trust Matt Forte.  Curtis Enis, Ced Benson and the rest of the Bears RB's have burned me before - 8/24/08

The NBA draft class was amazing this year.  I'm gonna pick at least 5 rooks starting with my boy, Marcus Fizer - 10/20/00

Bargnani's the next Nowitzki.  I'm gonna take him a round early - 10/22/06

Matthew Berry section - (Matthew, I kid because I care)

Bench Adrian Peterson, trust me the Chargers defense is tough against the run - 11/4/07

Michael Turner will finish with fewer than 1,000 yards rushing and seven touchdowns - 8/21/08

Erik Bedard is my number 1 fantasy starter this year - 3/21/08

Justin Verlander is my number 2 starter in the AL this year - 3/25/08

Feel free to submit your own Fantasy Twistory Lessons below

I lost interest in steroid stories long ago but if you're interested, here's some new information from the New York Times about Troy Glaus's steroid use in 2003-2004.  In regards to fantasy, news came out last week that Glaus is unlikely to return before the All-Star break.

Should we have concerns about Cole Hamels after getting crushed (3.2 innings, 7 runs, 11 hits) in Coors today?  I'd say watch closely.  Did anyone have the Rockies dominating the Phillies today when looking at the Marquis vs. Hamels matchup this morning?

Miguel Cabrera looks like a Triple Crown threat after another big day.  If he can get his average back up to it's '05-'07 levels (.329) he has as good of a shot as anyone.  The only concern could be depth behind him if Carlos Guillen doesn't age gracefully this year. 

Carlos Villanueva continues to reward those who picked him up after Hoffman's injury news. His victory today came at the expense of Kevin Gregg who blew the save chance.  Apparently Hoffman will be out till the end of April but Villanueva, regardless of role, looks like a rosterable fantasy player.  When used out of the bullpen in '08 his ERA was 2.12 with a K/9 of 9.4.

Ryan Spilborghs looked great today with 2 opposite field doubles off Cole Hamels.  His job security looks stronger than ever with a nice first 4 games (5 doubles, 4 runs, 4 RBI).  At home or against lefties he's a must start at this point.

Nelson Cruz hit his 3rd homerun of the season in a blowout v. Detroit.  He's looking more and more like he belongs in the middle of that lineup everyday.

Dodgers opening day starter Hiroki Kuroda was just placed on the DL with a strained left oblique.  The Dodgers starting pitching was already thin because of youth (Kershaw & McDonald) and injury risks (Kuroda & Wolf).  With a lengthy DL stint for Kuroda, the Dodgers may start looking like the All Hit-No Pitching Orioles, Rangers, and Tigers.

Most years I spend opening day at the ballpark or on my couch with remote in hand.  This year I spent baseball's opening day driving across the nothingness that is the space between Tucson, AZ and San Diego, CA.  In years past this would be a real downer but, thanks to my handy dandy IPhone I didn't miss a beat.  This made me think of how different I consume sports on the move today than I did a few years ago. Gone are the days of hoping to hear game action through a scratchy AM feed.

Yesterday in the middle of nowhere, with cruise control set to 80mph, I listened to Dave Damashek's podcasts with Jonah Keri via ESPN mobile and listened to games live via MLB.com's IPhone Application.  While my wife drove I watched video clips of action that took place only minutes before and looked at boxscores/lineups refreshed every 15 seconds.  In between innings I toggled back and forth between Rotoworld, Twitter, Facebook, Faketeams' Mobile site, and the Rotosynthesis blog (which I'm quickly falling in love with).  It was Jason Collette via Twitter that told me Harang was on an unhealthy 23 pitch/inning start to '09 and Rotosynthesis' running comment blog post that helped me dissect the fantasy angles in every game.  This would not have happened in 2004.

It's a whole new world and a whole new way to consume the world of fantasy.  While in the car, in years past, I was stuck trying to pick up sports updates on the half hour.  Now I, along with everyone else, have a cell phone data plan and I'm a refresh click away from up-to-the-second pitch updates.

Technology has certainly blessed the fantasy fan and it's a great time to be a geek.  Picking up Emilio Bonifacio while driving through the desert has never been easier.

So what did I miss?  How do you consume fantasy baseball in 2009 differently than you did 5 years ago?

For those of you who use Twitter, Fan Graphs will be tweeting EVERY GAME in '09.  That's all 162 games for each team, plus the playoffs.  They'll tweet every play and win probability and have 2 options, Obsessed (tweets at the half inning) and Really Obsessed (tweets after every play).  For more information go here.  I can't wait for the first tweet on Monday about my Padres when it lists a 38% chance of winning before the first pitch.

FYI, you can follow FakeTeams on Twitter here and me on Twitter here.

In a Tout Wars fashion show., there are no winners. There are however, experts with decades of experience who have projections in their heads and on their laptops of every player above A ball. The clip shows participants in this year's AL only league including Ron Shandler, Matthew Berry, Mike Siano, Joe Sheehan, and Jeff Erickson. It makes the big nerd in me want to camp out in line to see Fantasyland the Movie, presumably coming out sometime before next season. Thanks to David Scherzer of MLB.com who put together this 3 minute video.

This is a 5x5 12 team keeper league where we keep up to 5 players.  The rosters are expanded and include 2 C, MI, CI, 5 OF, and have plenty of bench spots for speculation.  I won the league last year so I sat on the wheel at the end of rounds 6/7 and so on.

1. Ryan Howard - keeper

2. BJ Upton - keeper

3. Brandon Webb - keeper

4. Alex Rios - keeper

5. Jacoby Ellsbury - keeper

6. Dan Uggla - I was feeling short of power and wanted to work on MI

7. Mariano Rivera - I like having one money-in-the-bank closer so Mo is my guy

8. Michael Young - I never imagined I'd take Young/Jeter back to back to finish off my SS and MI spots but I was feeling short on BA and hoped I could get a .305 BA out of 1200 ABs with these picks.  Both of them were a little dinged last year and I think there's some gas left in the tank with both.  I also like the lineup situations they're in and hope for 100 runs from each.

9. Derek Jeter

10. Lastings Milledge - This is a pick I regret.  I've fallen in love with 20/20 types in the past and now I leave myself open for a power deficiency with the last 3 picks.  I also had 3 OF kept and could have waited longer to take another one.

11. Yovani Gallardo - I love Yoga this year and am happy to have him as my #2 SP

12. Alex Gordon - Gordon, like Milledge before him and Cruz after him, is a guy I think will begin breaking through this year after getting his feet wet.  It's time for him to hit 25-30 homeruns and after looking at the rest of my roster, I hope it happens this year.  I'm already saying HOPE and IF way too much!

13. Nelson Cruz - I took him a little early because I knew I needed his pop.  I love that he's hitting 4th in that lineup and think he'll get 100 RBI easily if he gets 550 plate appearances.

14. Ryan Dempster - Here's to hoping he can come close to matching his '08.  An okay 3rd SP.

15. Mike Napoli - It's a 2C league so I couldn't wait much longer.  I'm worried about his health a bit but didn't want to miss out on his power.

16. Matt Garza - His series against Boston last October was a little too fresh in my mind with this pick.  I wish I'd gone with Carpenter, Unit, or Lilly who were taken right after him.

17. Elijah Dukes - Another 20/20 guy.  I love his skills and will probably throw him in my UT spot most of the time.  Take note of his splits day (.467 OPS) to night (1.010 OPS).  Apparently the freaks do come out at night!

18. Kevin Gregg - Although this is the 18th/19th round wheel, I took a big risk here on two relievers that lack dominant skills but may have closer jobs this time next week.  Marmol went in the 12th and Street in the early 18th so I feel like I could get nice value if they both come through.  If neither do . . . . then I'll have to take advantage of the fact that I'm online all day/every day to pick up closers.

19. Manny Corpas -

20. Hank Blalock - I needed a CI and think he could make a nice bounce back.  I was hoping Mora would fall till the 20-22 round but I'm happy with another Ranger here.

21. John Smoltz - We have 2 DL spots so I happily picked up Smoltz here.

22. Jeff Clement - Looking back, this is where I made my biggest mistake.  Yahoo has some nice 2nd catcher options at the very end of their catcher rankings that I didn't see.  I wish I would have waited till the very end of the draft to pick up Pudge or Laird.

23. Ryan Spilborghs - This was a head scratcher to most in the room but, I really like Spilz this year.  I see .300 with 15/15 while batting leadoff and playing CF 5 days a week.

24. Oliver Perez - 180+ Ks is hard to turn down in the 24th round

25. Gary Sheffield - More endgame speculation here.  If he bounces back then great, if not I cut him.

26. Mike Fontenot - I think he fell through the Yahoo ranking cracks for everyone.  I love him here and think he'll hit 2nd against righties.

27.Rick Porcello - I couldn't resist him in the 27th

28. Ryan Franklin - I think there's a 20% chance he'll get named the closer despite being awful.  If Motte gets the job then I dump Franklin the same day.  If he somehow gets it then maybe I get 20+ saves from my 28th round pick.

Writing this out makes me dislike this draft a little more than I had done initially.  I'm worried about BA if Young and Jeter don't bounce back this year.  I'll also need to trade away some speed for a power bat if Gordon, Upton, and Rios don't take a step forward with power this year.  I'll continue to tinker with pitching all year but like the top 4 of Webb, Yoga, Dempster and Smoltz come July.  Then one of Garza, Perez, or Porcello exceed expectations I'll be alright. 

I'm mainly worried that I liked my last 5 picks, in terms of value, more than all the others.  But then again, I'm a pessimist by nature.

Your thoughts?

Every year before starting a Yahoo draft I look at how they rank their player pool.  Many drafters become slave to Yahoo's rankings during the draft.  They know they need a Starting Pitcher so they pull up Starting Pitchers and pick the "best available".  I understand why this happens.  Drafting is a fast and furious process many times and if they don't own an intimate knowledge of every player in the player pool they'll trust Yahoo and pick the dreaded "best player available".  Who's to say Yahoo has the best rankings?  They don't and the proof is below.

Hitters

First of all, Chase Utley is 21st on Yahoo's rankings.  If you're sitting at the end of the first round in your league and no one's picked up on the fact that Utley is ranked 10 spots too low then pounce on him.

Randy Winn (280) - According to Yahoo, Winn was the 80th ranked player at the end of '08.  Now he's at 280 to start the year.  He's a boring guy to own but he produces.

Mike Jacobs (293) - 32 hr's in 477 ABs.

Mark Teahan (597) - 2nd base eligibility should happen within first 10 days of season.  He should put up .275 15/8 with eligibility at 1B/2B/3B/MI/CI/OF.  There's room for him on any AL only roster.

Jerry Hairston (659) - SS eligible and may have the job with Gonzalez injury

Elvis Andrus (676) - SS in Texas, 35+ steal upside

Colby Rasmus (709) - May be starter in StL

Rocco Baldelli (746) - UT only but he'll have OF eligibility soon and figures to be super sub in Boston

Travis Ishikawa (758) - Starting 1b in SF

Matt Gamel (830) - He'll start the year in the minors but if you can afford the spot he'll be a masher when he arrives

Ryan Spilborghs (841) - This might be the worst ranking of the bunch.  It looks like he'll be playing CF and leading off for the Rockies.  In his 668 major league AB's his slash stats are .302/.374/.466 with 21/16.  He'll be forgotten about in this player pool so search for him and be rewarded.

Pudge Rodriguez (851) - Sign with Astros and figures to get 400 AB

Mike Fontenot (869) - How is it possible he's so low?  It looks like he'll be in the potent Cubs lineup every day and projects to hit close to .290 with 15 HR and 10 steals.

Todd Helton (901) - How the mighty have fallen.  He does lead the Rockies in spring home runs and appears relatively healthy.

Joe Crede (916) - Could hit 20 HR with the Twins

Pitchers -

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It's time to look at end game stash candidates.  Before you draft find out If you have one or two DL slots.  The extra spot facilitates more late spec play.

Tim Hudson - His target date is August 1st giving owners a two month home stretch boost if they can afford the DL spot.  More than likely he'll be picked up in June/July after following his progress.

Kelvim Escobar - Mike Scioscia said on Tuesday that he anticipates a May 1st return for Escobar.  In most 12 team leagues he's going undrafted and is worth a late round flyer.  When healthy he's a nice 4th fantasy starter.

Billy Wagner - In my recent closer-happy league draft I kept making jokes about who would take Wagner.  It's a year to year league so people were correct to not take him.  All signs point to Wagner being out for all of '09 after elbow reconstruction.  He'll be 38 in '10 when the Mets have an $8 million option.  If you're playing in a deep keeper league and you already know you're playing for '10 save a buck for him in the end game.  With his track record and all the closer turnover from year to year he could have a job this time next year.

John Smoltz - It looks like a June return for Smotlz.  With great bullpen and offensive support behind him after his return Smoltz could be a major asset in the 2nd half.  In '08 before his injury he had 36 K's in 28 innings with a 2.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  He could go as early as the 20th round of 12 team mixed leagues.

Pedro Martinez - He's not hurt and therefore won't be eligible for a DL slot but in deeper leagues Pedro's worth a late flyer.  After his solid WBC an unexpected injury in someone's rotation could mean Pedro's return.  I was burned after taking a chance on him last year but would consider taking him again very late if I had the need for a starter and didn't feel like taking the likes of Carl Pavano.

Ben Sheets - He's still without a team and may be worse off injury-wise then we know but when healthy he's a big time asset.  Monitor him closely and see if he's DL eligible.  I'm guessing no.  However, I'd recommend stashing him when he signs with someone and gains the DL spot.

Julio Lugo - He's the very definition of cheap steals.  He won't be on the DL long after a knee scope on 3/17.  He should return a week or two into the season.  Monitor Jed Lowrie's start of the season and take a flyer on Lugo if Lowrie struggles.

Here are the results of my beloved Home League.  It's a 12 team, 5x5 league with 21 roster spots which means no MI, no CI, one C, and only 3 OF.  My goal was to go hitting heavy except at Catcher where I knew a solid option would be available late.  Despite not needing to fill a MI spot I wanted to target the position scarce spots up the middle.  As you'll see that strategy may have led me to reach a bit in Round 2.

Here are the results:

1. Miguel Cabrera

I couldn't pass him up at 8

2. Dustin Pedroia

Admittedly, this was a few picks too high.  If he has close to 700 plate appearances like in '08 I'll be alright.

3. Alex Rodriguez

With no Corner Infield spots in this league I know I'll be able to take a quality April replacement in the later rounds.  I was happy to get him here although I'm taking on risk early which I don't like to do normally.

4. Matt Kemp

How does 25/35 sound?  With Manny around for a full season it's expected his runs and RBI would also increase.  He's still only 24 . . . I wish this were a keeper league.

5. Rafael Furcal

This was a little high as well but, I was looking for a great middle infield.  Remember how Furcal was the #1 player in fantasy a month into '08?  If he stays healthy in '09 with Manny in the lineup, he'll score 110 runs along with the other fantasy goodness he provides.  I've already said IF twice in 2 of the first 5 pick write ups . . . . hmm, not good.

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Chris Liss is RotoWire's managing editor and keeper of the RotoSynthesis Blog. His column Beating the Book runs weekly during football season on RotoWire, his East Coast Offense, Charging the Mound and Give and Go columns run on Yahoo Sports. Chris also appears weekly during football season on Yahoo! Sports' Fantasy Football Live. Chris a lifelong Giants fan who experienced deep soul healing and vindication every time Lawrence Taylor tossed aside tackles, tight ends and running backs before crushing quarterbacks while clubbing the ball out of their hands. Chris lives in Venice, CA and grows vegetables on his balcony.

RJK - What league format do you derive the most pleasure from?

CL - I like to play a variety of formats because each requires a different skill set. If I had to pick one, I'd say my 15-team mixed home league is the best. It's just deep enough that you can't swing for the fences on every pick, but not so deep that you're just drafting for at-bats. Plus, we're allowed to pick up minor leaguers before they get called up - it's always a tough call to spend one of your scarce bench spots on a lights-out pitcher who could be called up next week or two months from now.

RJK - How do "expert" leagues differ from buddy/family leagues?

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Jonah Keri has covered baseball, college basketball and other sports for a number of publications, including ESPN.com, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Penthouse, and Baseball Prospectus. He also writes the flagship stock market column for Investor's Business Daily, called "The Big Picture". He's writing a book about the Tampa Bay Rays and the AL East race, slated for publication in 2010.

RJK: You play in some pretty exotic fantasy leagues with some pretty exotic people.  Which league do you derive the most pleasure from?

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Drew Silva is a 9 year veteran of fantasy baseball.  He currently writes for Rotoworld.com and MLBtraderumors.com.  His loves include the St. Louis Cardinals, Cal Ripken Jr., and everything Aaron Gleeman.  Drew considers Mike Bordick his own personal Newman.

RJK: With Manny back with the Dodgers project 5 x 5 catagories for Andre Either, Matt Kemp, and James Loney?

Drew Silva: Ahhh.  Projections!?  I'll give it my best shot because I love that trio:

Ethier: .290, 95 R, 85 RBI, 22 HR, 5 SB
Kemp: .300, 85 R, 80 RBI, 18 HR, 32 SB
Loney: .305, 75 R, 88 RBI, 15 HR, 4 SB

RJK: Give me a player being drafted in the first 3 rounds that will disappoint this year?

Drew Silva: A few months ago, or maybe even weeks ago, I would have said CC Sabathia.  I was thinking the pressure, and the shiny lights of the Big Apple, would be a bit too much for him.  It has swallowed a lot of guys in the past.  But, now, with the whole A-Rod distraction, maybe he'll fly under the radar and settle in.  Matt Holliday is probably my choice now.  From Coors to the Colisuem?  Uh oh.

RJK: Who will a player taken in the 20th round or later that will produce top 10 round value?

Drew Silva: You want me to reveal all of my sleepers to the world, man?  Damn.  I'll give you a few.  I think Kahlil Greene will do well enough in St. Louis to warrant a starting spot in deep leagues.  Max Scherzer showed legitimate potential in his short time with the Diamondbacks last year.  Don't let that 0-4 record blind you.  He has a great fastball-slider combination.  Troy Percival, if healthy, will rack up a good amount of saves.  That's a monstrous "if," of course, but people might overlook him for that exact reason.  The Rays are a strong team, as we all saw last year, and the front end of their bullpen is solid.  He'll be handed a good amount of leads.

RJK: What underlying stats do you like to look at to predict break outs and flame outs?

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The mock draft below is a 10 team roto league with 1 catcher, no MI or CI and only 3 OF.  I've come to loathe this type of league.  Everyone seemingly has an all-star OF and there are very solid everyday players sitting on the FA wire.  Where's the fun in that?

With that said, I present to you a contrarian strategy that I'd like your opinion on.  Below you'll notice I took 2 closers in my first seven picks.  Papelbon and Rivera are high end closers that show much greater consistency than their fellow firemen.  You hear "Don't Pay for Saves" so often these days it's unheard of to seek 2 top closers.  Most people take a closer with good job security and then fill out the rest of their bullpen's with 1-2 more high K guys with a current closer gig on bad teams. 

In this case, I don't feel I'm paying just for the saves.  I'm paying for highly reliable, dominant pitchers who will positively effect ALL of my categories.  Their incredibly low ERA and WHIP will take the pressure off the rest of my staff.  I, like many people, seek to build a strong offense first.  By taking two star closers I, in effect, help buttress every pitcher taken thereafter.

Before you snicker, let's look at what we're getting from our 5th and 7th round picks.  Papelbon and Rivera in '08 combined for 11 wins, 80 saves, 154K's, 1.85 ERA, and a 0.80 WHIP in 140 IP.  The '08 year end Yahoo player rankings had Papelbon and Rivera ranked as the 41st and 15th best players in fantasy.  So we're not just paying for saves.  Paying for saves is drafting Todd Jones and Joe Borowski back to back in the 16th and 17th round.  You're only helping yourself in one possible category and most likely hurting yourself in 4 others.

Now, I'm not married to this strategy and haven't used it in a real league for a couple years but, it sure would be nice not to have to worry about the Scott Schowenweis' of the world come August.

1. Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B,3B)
2. Ryan Braun (Mil - OF)
3. Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B)
4. Justin Morneau (Min - 1B)
5. Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - RP)
6. Alexei Ramírez (CWS - 2B,SS,OF)
7. Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)
8. Adam Dunn (Was - 1B,OF)
9. Stephen Drew (Ari - SS)
10. Ryan Ludwick (StL - OF)
11. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP)
12. Matt Wieters (Bal - C)
13. Ricky Nolasco (Fla - SP)
14. Zack Greinke (KC - SP)
15. Lastings Milledge (Was - OF)
16. Andre Ethier (LAD - OF)
17. Kevin Slowey (Min - SP)
18. Joey Devine (Oak - RP)
19. Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP)
20. Chris Carpenter (StL - SP)
21. Shin-Soo Choo (Cle - OF)

I'm a big fan of the boys over at RotoSynthesis.  They continue to pump out thoughtful pieces a few times a day on everything fantasy.  They include the likes of Chris Liss, Dalton Del Don (best name in the business), Jonah Keri, Jeff Erickson, and others.  Check it out.

Eric brought this up a couple weeks ago but, I thought it bears repeating, Jeff Erickson is back on "the air" at BlogTalkRadio.  For the past few years Jeff's Fantasy Focus show has been on XM.  I only got to hear him a couple of times while in rental cars with XM but I loved the show instantly.  Now that he's on the internet I can listen live or catch the podcast (XM didn't podcast) at the very least.  Every show he has a guest or two from one of the big fantasy outlets.

FYI, I've talked to Chris Liss on Facebook and he said his show will be back on in July after he finishes the Rotowire football magazine.  Presumably he'll be on Blog Talk Radio around the same time of the day as Jeff.

The BaseballHQ Radio podcast is for the serious fantasy player.  Seriously, you won't hear a joke or laugh for 45 minutes.  It feels like Public Radio's version of fantasy.  With that said, the information is top-notch and will help you analyze stats in a way you may be unaccustomed to.  Get ready to fall in love with contact rates, PQS rates, strand rate, and command ratios.   

My first true love in the world of fantasy podcasts is MLB.com's Fantasy 411.  Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano have brought me 3 years of fantasy happiness.  During the season they're on 5 times a week and go down to 2 shows in the off season.  They have a loyal following that's been with them through host changes, lineup changes, and format changes.  Whether it's Siano talking about pints at Foley's or Cory talking about his NFBC team you'll enjoy it.  The link above is their blog (updated daily) and it'll take you to their podcast.