SB Nation User Blog: RJK

Wednesday Roto Highlights - Brewers love YoGa

RJK — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:45:35 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Leo Nunez - He's battled an ankle injury this past week but notched 2 saves, hit 96 on the gun, and K'd 4 in 2.1 innings since Marlins closer Matt Linstrom went down. He and Dan Meyer are sharing the closer job for the time being but Nunez is the righty and looks to get the majority of the chances.

Hank Blalock - Despite the low batting average I've really enjoyed owning Blalock this year. If you play his matchups correctly he can be a very effective spot starter. Against righties he's hit 14 HR in 165 AB. You can find uses for a 1B/3B eligible player with numbers like that.

Adam Wainwright - I was shocked to see Wainwright come out for the 9th inning in Tuesday's game against San Francisco. He had just given up the tying run in the 8th and was at 105 pitches. All he did in the 9th was strike out the side (all swinging) after giving up a leadoff single to Edgar Renteria. It was an ace-like performance with 12 Ks and allowed the Cardinals the opportunity for a win despite being shut down by Matt Cain. He still walks a few too many and isn't efficient enough to regularly go deep into games but the Cards figure to improve their offense with trades and the back end of their bullpen has been strong. Wainwright is a solid #3 fantasy starter.

Ricky Romero - I'm kicking myself after letting Romero get picked up in my shallow 12 team mixed league yesterday. He dominated MLB's leader in runs scored (the Rays) Tuesday morning with 8 innings of shutout ball giving up 4 hits and striking out 7. If you take out his 2 starts after coming off the DL (impossible I know but just follow me) he'd be 6-1 with 1.85 ERA. Those 2 starts were at Baltimore, when they were raking, and at home against Boston. He's also gone at least 6.1 innings in every start since that 5/31 start vs. Boston. If he's somehow available in your mixed league stop reading this and go get him.

Yovani Gallardo -YoGa has quickly turned into a fantasy #1 starting pitcher. With his 12 K's over 7 innings on Tuesday his K/9 now sits at an impressive 9.80. Only Verlander, Vazquez, and Lincecum best him in that category. I started thinking about keepers on my 12 team mixed keeper league and began wondering if Gallardo is a definate keeper. If he keeps up his pace he should be a 3rd-6th rounder in '10. He just turned 23 this February.

Hanley Ramirez - He's not giving up the title of consensus #1 fantasy pick to Pujols without a fight. Ramirez is on a tear right now with a 33 RBI June. He's hit .360 since May 1st and looks to finish the year with .330+, 100 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 25 steals. He's currently 5th ranked in Yahoo's player rankings.

Cody Ross - Ross isn't finding himself on too many mixed league waiver wires these days. He's up to 48 RBI and 14 HR and on pace to up his career highs in HR (22) and RBI (73)

Johnny Damon - With the short porch in right field, Damon's on his way to a new career high (26) in HR. He's currently at career high levels in SLG, OPS, and HR/AB. To begin the year we might have expected a 15/25 year but Damon's flipping his career norms and may end up with a 25/15. Either way, he's providing strong #2 OF numbers.

FYI, you can follow me on Twitter (@RyanKaltenbach). I know, so original. I swear I was doing it at least 2 weeks before everyone else . . . . meaning February.

Poll

Given what you've seen of Yovani Gallardo where do you project him being drafted in '10?

Monday/Thursday Players with Splits to take Advantage of

RJK — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 05:15:43 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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When there were only two baseball games played on Monday I was reminded of the importance of filling in your lineups on days when you might have holes in your roster. If you were to pick up just one player to fill in your roster every Monday and Thursday of the baseball season you'd have 52 extra games played. That's roughly 120 extra AB. By doing this you could expect an extra 6 HR, 18 runs, 18 RBI, and 3-5 steals. That could easily mean 2-5 points in your league and possibly the difference between 1st place and 3rd place.

If you choose you Monday/Thursday players wisely you gain even more of an advantage. Many players have strong splits that you need to be aware of when choosing your pick ups. In 12 team mixed leagues you can expect many of the following players available as free agents. Check out their splits. If you pick them at the right time you can really cash in.

Cody Ross - Day - 1.015 OPS with 5 HR in 76 AB. Night - .681 OPS with 5 HR in 153 AB.

Michael Cuddyer - Home - .983 OPS with 17/21 BB/K. Away - .662 OPS with 9/26 BB/K

Juan Rivera - Lefties - 1.410 OPS including 6 HR in 51 AB. Righties - .681 OPS with 3 HR in 157 AB

Mark Teahan - Home - .904 OPS with 6 HR in 119 AB. Away - .704 OPS with 2 HR in 102 AB.

Jose Guillen - Righties - .813 OPS with 20 RBI in 106 AB. Lefties - .657 OPS with 7 RBI in 67 AB

Chris Duncan - Away - .925 OPS with .320 BA in 100 AB. Home - .602 OPS with .194 BA in 98 AB.

Andrew Jones - Day - 1.460 OPS with 3 HR in 28 AB. Night - .684 OPS with 4 HR in 85 AB. Righties - 1.000 OPS with 5 HR in 56 AB. Lefties - .751 OPS with 2 HR in 57 AB.

Ryan Garko - Lefties - 1.096 OPS with 3 HR in 35 AB. Righties - .667 OPS with 3 HR in 110 AB.

All Star Game Lineups Based on Fantasy Value

RJK — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:20:23 -0000

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All Star Game selections give us lots to complain about. Year after year we moan and complain about the selections yet we forget who won and who even played days after the game . Thus is life in a 12-24 hour news cycle. Would we remember things differently if the players were picked strictly because of their fantasy value? Probably not but let's do it anyways. For your mild amusement here are the All Star Game selections for the NL and AL based strictly on 5x5 fantasy value. Each player's current fantasy ranking is listed next to his name. The rankings are Yahoo Fantasy and go through Tuesday.

American League

C - Victor Martinez (25)

1B - Justin Morneau (5)

2B - Ian Kinsler (11)

SS - Jason Bartlett (23)

3B - Evan Longoria (13)

OF - Carl Crawford (4)

OF - Jason Bay (9)

OF - Torii Hunter (10)

SP - Zack Greinke (2)

SP - Roy Halladay (7)

SP - Edwin Jackson (16)

SP - Jeff Weaver (28)

SP - Justin Verlander (69)

RP - Andrew Bailey (41)

RP - Frank Francisco (53)

RP - Joe Nathan (74)

Reserves

OF Nelson Cruz (14)

1B Mark Teixeira (15)

OF Adam Jones (17)

2B Aaron Hill (24)

C Joe Mauer (31)

Notable AL absences include Johnny Damon (26), Adam Lind (30), Miguel Cabrera (37), Curtis Granderson (42), Erik Bedard (76), Ramon Ramirez (83), David Aardsma (103)

NL All Stars after the jump

National League

C - Bengie Molina (225) but really Pablo Sandoval (181) since we're talking about Yahoo leagues

1B - Albert Pujols (2)

2B - Chase Utley (29)

SS - Hanley Ramirez (47)

3B - Mark Reynolds (19)

OF - Raul Ibanez (1)

OF - Justin Upton (32)

OF - Ryan Braun (36)

SP - Dan Haren (8)

SP - Johan Santana (18)

SP - Chris Carpenter (21)

SP - Johnny Cueto (40)

SP - Josh Johnson (48)

RP - Jonathon Broxton (6)

RP - K-Rod (33)

RP - Heath Bell (35)

Reserves

1B - Adrian Gonzalez (16)

3B - David Wright (20)

OF - Matt Kemp (38)

OF - Carlos Beltran (39)

SS - Miguel Tejada (57)

Notable NL absences include Prince Fielder (22), Ryan Howard (27), Ryan Zimmerman (34), Adam Dunn (61), Trevor Hoffman (43), Yovani Gallardo (54), Ryan Franklin (56), Chad Billingsley (60)

Of course, this is not a perfect system. Some positions are stacked like NL 1B where Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder get edged out and others are thin like NL SS. Tejada's the back up but the third most valuable NL SS is Clint Barmes at 112. Real All Star games aren't the only place where deserving players have to sit at home while the likes of Junior Spivey and Mark Redman get to go. It turns out fake fantasy games have the same snub factor. WIth that said if Adrian Gonazalez doesn't make the real All Star team I'll never watch another one again.

Dan Uggla's Best Year Ever?

RJK — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 00:12:53 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

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Juan Rodriguez of Sun-Sentinel.com wrote an article yesterday arguing that Dan Uggla is in the middle of his finest season. As a Dan Uggla owner I'm painfully aware of his current .212 average. I knew he was in the middle of a hot streak but he's STILL hitting .212! Upon further review I concluded that Rodriguez is right. Let's take a closer look.

Uggla's current line is .330/.441/.772 is down from his career .339/.484/.823 but that doesn't tell the whole offensive story. When we look at his Walk rate and Strikeout rate we see a more developed approach and excecution at the plate. Rodriguez writes,

"Uggla's percentage of pitches taken has increased from 54.6 percent as a rookie to 58.6 percent this season, according to Baseball Info Solutions. Not only is Uggla a more discerning swinger, he's offering at and making contact with more strikes.

In 2006, 66.4 percent of the pitches Uggla took were balls compared to 72.3 percent this season. As a rookie, he swung and missed 24.5 percent of the time. That figure increased each of the next two seasons to 30.5 percent in 2008, behind only Mark Reynolds (39.0 percent), Ryan Howard (34.7 percent) and Justin Upton (33.3 percent), according to Stats, Inc. This season his percentage of swings that missed is down to 24.1. Uggla is on pace to strike out 142 times after averaging 169 the last two seasons."

In May he had 16 walks to 23 Ks. The only other time his BB/K rate was that high was May '07 when he had a 1.005 OPS. But in May '09 his OPS was a measley .745. So what's the difference? All of you BABIP junkies out there are screaming at your screens. You're right, it's his BABIP. It's currently .220, well below his pre 2009 career BABIP of .300. It's been well established that individuals have their own BABIP levels. Some are higher or lower based on many factors like speed, power, and home park. But Uggla's '09 BABIP is a cool 80 points below his established level. With this said, we can expect his average to rise and if he continues to improve his BB and K rates he may have his first season with a OBP north of .380. If his Slugging % settles in at career norms we could be looking at a .880+ OPS 2nd baseman. Also, Uggla became the fastest 2nd baseman to 100 career homeruns on Tuesday night. Not too shabby for a hacking Rule 5 guy.

Let's look at a few of his more interesting HR moments of the year:

Here's the "Pitching Wedge hitting a house off the back of the green"

Here's the "You buy this hat and you get a free bowl of soup. Looks good on you though"

Here's the "My hip surgery won't be as painful as this moment" - Brett Myers

Justin Upton's Greatness

RJK — Fri, 29 May 2009 05:13:43 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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Justin Upton's first hit in '09 came in the Diamondback's 8th game. When he stepped to the plate in the 10th inning on April 14th he was 0 for 15. Since that time he's hitting .381 and is on a run only rivaled by the currently inhuman Joe Mauer.

I was lucky enough to pick him up on May 1st in a shallow league. At the time he was hitting .250 with 2 HR and 8 RBI. Since then he's hitting a cool .393 with 25 runs, 7 HR, 21 RBI, and 5 steals.

Let's take a look at Justin Upton's greatness with a Did You Know segment:

Did you know that Justin Upton . . . .

- has a 1.000+ OPS against 7 of his 11 opponents in '09?

- is 21 yrs old and has a career .836 OPS? He's still the 3rd youngest player in the NL.

- has a career 1.098 OPS in the playoffs? Oh yeah, he was 19 in the 2007 playoffs.

- is hitting .395/.457/.778 from the third spot in the order? Guess where he's staying?

- has a OPS+ of 161 in '09?

- is Yahoo's 6th ranked fantasy player in May?

- is Yahoo's 9th ranked OF?

- leads the NL in triples with 4?

- is 2nd in the NL in XBH with 25?

- hit this frozen rope? You have to love the home run call

- hit this moon shot? Wally Moon would be proud.

- 's homerun's average 421 feet? That's 24 feet longer on average than the rest of the NL.

In March, I asked Chris Liss of Rotowire (known lover of Upton) who would be taken in the 10th round or later in 2009 drafts but would end up a being top 40 pick in the 2010 draft. His answer was Justin Upton.

Poll

What round does Justin Upton go in the 2010 draft?

1st-2nd

42 votes

3rd-4th

42 votes

5th-6th

17 votes

7th or later

2 votes

103 votes | Poll has closed

Meet the Nats

RJK — Wed, 20 May 2009 06:12:33 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

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Let's not sugarcoar things, the Washington Nationals are an awful baseball team. They currently sit at 11-28 and are on the fast track to having the 1st overall pick in 2010 draft. But their 2009 failings haven't come because of their bats. Their offensive success has flown under the radar because of the greater teams success . . . or lack thereof.

Let's take a closer look:

2008 OBP/SLG/OPS: .323/.373/.696

2009 OBP/SLG/OPS: .364/.449/.812

They're currently 3rd in MLB in OPS, 5th in SLG, 3rd in OBP, and 5th in Total Bases.

Anytime you add Adam Dunn and a healthy Nick Johnson and take away Austin Kearns and a Aaron Boone/Dmitri Young 1B platoon you're going to boost your offense. The Nats have seen their franchise player (Ryan Zimmerman) blossom as they'd hoped he would when they extended him for 5 years at $45 million to a .411/.630/1.041 tune.

Nick Johnson has become a viable mixed league option recently with 12 runs and 20 RBI thus far in May. His BABIP remains inhumanly high at .382 but his career .398 OBP means he's always known how to get on base regardless of how he's hitting at the time. He's being whispered about in trade as a sell high in real life and should be in fantasy as well.

The master of the three true outcomes, Adam Dunn, is inline for his 5th straight 40 HR season (fingers crossed) with 11 through 39 games. He's currently sitting at career high AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS levels. His BABIP is a bit outside his career norm at .329 but is sustainable if he can keep his LD% around it's current 21.5.

Fake Teams would like to congratulate Cristian Guzman on taking 4 balls for the first time in 2009. It only took him 26 games and 122 AB for him to acheive this marvelous feat. He's ready for a huge fall in production with a BABIP at a cool .426.

So the next time you're streaming starting pitchers and you start licking your lips because the matchups against the Nats, think again. Yes, you heard it here first cause ain' nobody talking bout the Nats!

How Close Have You Been Following Along?

RJK — Thu, 14 May 2009 05:26:58 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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We're a little more than 20% through the 2009 season. Let's see how well you've been paying attention.

1. I lead the Yankees in HR and am the 16th rated player according to Yahoo. Who am I?

2. I have 9 more HR than my next closest teammate. Who am I?

3. I'm 21 years old, I hit in a pitchers park and my average, OBP, and slugging percentage have gone up all three years I've been in the majors. Who am I?

4. I'm hitting .390 with 0 walks in 100 AB and my slugging percentage is .500. In 2005, my first year with my current team, I hit .219 in 456 AB with a .574 OPS. Who am I?

5. Four of the top ten preseason rated pitchers are currently ranked 500+. Name them? This will be much easier if you own any of them.

6. Four hitters that were widely drafted in the first 2 rounds are hitting .212 or worse. Name them.

7. Two of the top three leaders in runs are on the same team. What team are they on and who are they?

8. In '07-'08 I had 4 HR in 1117 AB. In '09 I have 5 HR in 125 AB. Who am I?

9. We are teammates who've combined for 14 HR and 15 singles and play in the park with the largest OF in the majors. Who are we?

10. I'm a starting pitcher, I have as many walks as wins and I'm really freaking good. Who am I?

1. Johnny Damon - 9 HR

2. Adrian Gonzalez - 13 HR, Scott Hairston - 4 HR

3. Justin Upton

4. Cristian Guzman

5. Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Liriano

6. Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Lance Berkman

7. Nick Markakis (33 runs) and Adam Jones (35 runs)

8. Ryan Theriot

9. Ian Stewart (7 singles, 6 HR) and Chris Iannetta (9 singles, 7 HR)

10. Roy Halladay - 7 wins, 7 walks, really freaking good

"He's Heating Up"

RJK — Tue, 05 May 2009 06:02:38 -0000

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies - The job is now his and seems it will be till the inevitable trade to a contender in July. 5 straight scoreless appearances, 4 Ks, 1 BB, 2 saves

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox - Even after Monday's win his '09 ERA is 5.11. However, he's 2-0 in his last 4 starts (26 innings, 33 Ks, 10 walks) Buy now before his ERA lowers even more and his cover is blown.

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers - The injury at the end of spring training put even more doubt into people's mind as to his '09 fantasy worth. But since his return he's done nothing but throw strikes. 5 appearances, 5 innings, 3 hits, 0 BB, 5 Ks, 4 saves

Rod Barajas, Toronto Blue Jays - As Jorge Posada owners scramble to the FA wire they'll most likely be surprised by Barajas' recent output. On April 22nd his OPS was .533. He's raised it to .900+ including a 13 for 24 over the past 7 days.

Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels - Jonah Keri tweeted Monday evening that Mike Napoli is the most underrated player in baseball. I'd have to agree. After Monday night's 4/4 with 2 doubles he was hitting a cool .364/.493/.673. All this with 2 steals thrown in.

With Guerrero on the shelf for a while it appears that Napoli has taken away some DH ABs, and he's ready to put himself in the McCann, Mauer, Martin conversation. Remember, this is a player who hit 20 HR in 78 games in '08 with a .960 OPS. The guy can rake, and now he's getting more AB's.

Matt Garza - 2 good starts, 2 bad starts, 2 good starts. The last 2 starts - 15.2, 5 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB, 12 Ks. His WHIP sits at 1.00 and he appears to be building momentum. His next two starts come against Cleveland (Anthony Reyes) at home and Oakland at home.

Edinson Volquez - As a 162 game owner of Volquez in '08 I grew accustomed to riding the BB/K rollercoaster. After a difficult beginning to '09 he's been dealing in his last 2 outings. 16 innings, 4 hits, 0 earnies, 5 BB, 13 Ks. The most interesting part of his last two starts are the 12/6 GB/FB rate in the home start and 4/11 rate in spacious Miami. Is this a sign of maturity or a coinscidence? I know this is a cop out but, we'll have to wait and see.

Chris Iannetta - With 4 HR in the last 5 games Iannetta is finally starting to reward his owners. His OPS is up to .859 and 3 of the 4 HRs have come in SF and SD. Now, the Rocks are back to Coors for 8 games against SF, FLA, HOU.

JJ Hardy - 4 hits and 3 BB with 5 RBI in his last 2 games. His '09 BABIP is .172 . . . a correction is coming.

Curtis Granderson - Watch those Home/Road Splits. He's at .671/1.009 for the year after another road HR on Tuesday night. His BABIP is 75 points lower than his career average. He's likely to up his average and lower his power output but it's a good sign that his power stroke is in midseason form.

10 May Day Predictions

RJK — Fri, 01 May 2009 05:12:48 -0000

1. All 4 starters for the NL West teams (Peavy, Kershaw, Jimenez, Johnson) pitching on Friday will post Quality Starts despite none of them sporting ERAs currently under 5.74.

2. David Wright will break out of his slump by hitting a homerun off of Chan Ho Park.

3. Mark Hendrickson will beat Roy Halladay and Sidney Ponson will beat Kevin Slowey.

4. The Heat will beat the Hawks to force a game seven and no one will care . . . not even basketball fans.

5. Albert Pujols will homer off Jordan Zimmerman on his way to a better May than April.

6. Keith Law will write a snarky Facebook status update.

7. Russell Martin will go 0-4. Lifetime .415 OPS vs. Peavy.

8. Dan Uggla will strikeout 2+ times (facing Rich Harden).

9. You'll hear a Swine Flu joke before 10:00am.

10. You'll read this and laugh.

Most Impressive Stats

RJK — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:03:27 -0000

More photos » by KYLE ERICSON - AP

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Fantasy players tend to focus most of their energy on the stats that are counted in their leagues. Most of the time that includes the 5 x 5 vanilla stats but in other leagues OBP, holds, extra base hits may count. Sometimes the most impressive stats lie outside the traditional roto categories and tell us why they're having their success.

Hitters - BA-Runs-HR-RBI-Steals followed by the (MIS) Most Impressive Stat

Albert Pujols - .343-20-7-25-3 (MIS) 16 BB, 4 K

Adam Jones - .348-20-3-17-0 (MIS) His 8 walks account for almost a third of his total walks in 2008. His OBP has jumped from .311 in '08 to .410 in '09.

Kosuke Fukodome -.371-14-3-15-1 (MIS) 1.118 Road OPS in '09, .655 Road OPS in '08

Brandon Inge - .323-15-7-17-1 (MIS) 11 BB and 12 K. Career 296 BB and 816 K

Adrian Gonzalez - .323-14-7-15-0 (MIS) Career high 4.08 pitches per PA, G/F career low 0.55

Jason Kubel - .328-10-4-15-0 (MIS) XBH every 6 AB

Jacoby Ellsbury - .289-12-1-6-10 (MIV) Most Impressive Video

Ryan Braun - .338-10-4-13-2 (MIS) 13/19, 7 runs, 3 HR, 8 RBI from April 21-April 25

Orlando Hudson - .355-17-2-8-4 (MIS) K every 12 AB and .452 OBP

Pitchers -

Zack Greinke - 4 wins, 0.00 era, 0.86 whip, 36 K (MIS) - 6/1 K/BB with his 4 wins coming against Det, Cle, ChW, Tex

John Danks - 2 wins, 0.95 era, 0.84 whip,16 K (MIS) .136 BAA with .231 slugging against

Chad Billingsley - 4 wins, 2.05 era, 0.87 whip, 26 K (MIS) For the 4th straight year he's raised his K/BB (2.89) and reduced his pitches/inning (15.8)

Jonathon Broxton - 6 saves, 0.96 era, 0.32 whip, 15 K (MIS) 15/1 K/BB, lefties OBP is .056

Dan Haren - 1 win, 1.38 era, .88 whip, 26 K (MIS) Career low #P/IP at 14.7 and career highs in K/9 (9.00) and K/BB (5.20)

Johan Santana - 3 wins, 0.70 era, 0.90 whip, 37 K (MIS) 13 K/9, Righties hitting .137 against him.