SB Nation User Blog: RJK

2009 - Top 100

RJK — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 04:55:59 -0000

Matthew Pouliot, Rotoworld's yeomen, has posted his Top 100 list for 2009. Anytime someone does this they open themselves up to critique so he started by calling this a "very, very preliminary set of 2009 rankings for keeper leaguers."

After looking at the list I do have some questions, most of which can be answered with a explanations such as "age, opportunity, and it's a Keeper League".

The list and thoughts after the jump . . .

Here's the list:

2009 - Top 100 Keeper List

Only a few of these names seem way off base given the factors of next year's age, their assumed opportunity, and the fact that this is a list of keepers who can be kept multiple years . Here's where I have a problem:

10. Johan Santana - His K/9 rate significantly dropped this year and I don't know if he'll get it back. Even though he's Johan, I don't see the production of a first round pick.

12. Brandon Webb - He's betting on continued consistence. His numbers this year don't show complete dominance but, he'll be out there every five days giving a good to great start. Having Webb provides a safety net that allows you to go out and take risks with other starters. With this being said I still wouldn't take him quite this high.

17. BJ Upton - I have him in a keeper league where we keep our five best players and I'm betting his power shows up next year too. Nonetheless, 17 seems high given 4 of his 5 categories this year are extremely underwhelming. As I'm typing this he has 7 HR's in 408 ab's with a .265 average.

18. Carl Crawford - Anyone who owned him this year disagrees with this ranking. Yup, I'm one of them

25. Felix Hernandez - This is one of the only picks I really have a problem with. Yes, he's young. Yes, he flashes brilliance. But, and it's a big but, he's never shown consistency. He's never had one full year of dominance. Last year his K/BB was over 3/1 but, his WHIP was 1.38. This year his ERA is currently 2.94 but, his WHIP is 1.28 with a K/BB of 2.5/1. This year his HR are way down but, his walks are way up. He seems to get hurt every year and now his team stinks for the foreseeable future. I'd say he belongs around 75-100 in the 2009 draft and beyond.

31. Alex Rios - His and BJ Upton's year remind me so much of each other. Pouliot obviously believes the power is coming around with Rios as well. He has a career high in steals but 8 HR in 462 ab's is a killer, especially when he hit 24 the year before.

34. Lance Berkman - This lowish rating can probably be chalked up to ageism. He'll be 33 at the start of next year but, he's currently the #1 player on Yahoo rankings despite an HR 0-fer in July. He's got at least 3 more years of fantasy goodness.

36. Josh Hamilton - Another ranking that seems low given his emergence in 2008.

38. Victor Martinez - There will be some looking for a bounce back in 2009 but, I won't be one of them if his price is early 4th round.

44. Carlos Lee - Seems low given his year after year .300-30-100 production. Only 32 to start '09 season.

63. Matt Kemp - Here's a 24 year old who's about to go 20-40 while hitting .300. Is that something that would interest you? I'm thinking top 40.

66. Chris Carpenter - No one in their right mind is going to take him here. Pitchers are too easy to come by to take a 34 year old who's making a comeback after his second major surgery.

85. Adrian Gonzalez - He's about to go 40-100 in the best pitchers park of this generation. Oh ya, his age 27 season is next year. Take him in the 4th round or before.

89. Carlos Quentin - Currently the 7th rated player on Yahoo. His numbers project out to .284-100-43-120-8. Will be 26 during the bulk of '09. Another player I'd take at least 40-50 spots higher.

As Pouliot stated earlier this is a very early list and is subject to change quite a bit before we need to be handing in keeper lists. Despite the fact that I only listed the rankings I had a problem with, I like this list and do find lists like this important. This is the time of year that 2/3 of all fantasy players in keeper leagues are looking towards next year.

What are your thoughts on the list and how many of the 100 do you have in each of your keeper leagues? Chris Carpenter doesn't count.

Splitsville

RJK — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 04:27:34 -0000

If you're playing Roto style fantasy you know that one steal or one strikeout could mean the difference between winning and second place. Take it from my Brother-in-Law who ended up tied for first in our league last year. One more save or HR would have won it for him. You think either of those could have been found one the wire during 1 of the 180ish days of the season? Heck ya. So at bats and quality innings really matter. Monday's and Thursday's you should be picking up players to fill out your lineups.

We've also reached the point in the season where player's home/road, lefty/righty splits have built up enough at-bats to really matter if they're drastic enough.

So here are a handful of players who may be available in your league that can make a difference to your team down the stretch by playing the match-ups.

Mike Cameron - Home - .194/.270/.361, Road - .250/.349/.539 with 11hr in 152 ab's

Fred Lewis - Home - .333/.396/.530, Road - .215/.298/.356, Righties - .836 OPS with all 7 of his HR's. Against Lefties - .608 OPS

Jose Guillen - Lefties - .297/.343/.574, Righties - .246/.266/.397

Jason Kubel - 1 HR against lefties with .538 OPS, 12 HR's against righties with a .840 OPS

Eric Hinske - might lose time due to the Jason Bay trade . . . .oh wait, nevermind. Plays almost exclusively against righties where he has 14 hr's and a .905 OPS

Marcus Thames - Throughout his career he's never played as well during day games. This year the split's are more extreme. Day - hitting .212 with a .684 OPS, Night - hitting .285 with 15 HR's and a 1.040 OPS

Ramon Vazquez - Has a full time gig with Hank Blalock on the DL. There's a reason he's never had a full time job for a complete year though. His lifetime OPS against lefties is .484! That's in 341 ab's. He loves the righties this year though, .337/.405/.518! In many leagues he's 2B, SS, 3B eligible so you should be able to find a spot for him against righties.

Bill Hall - If Ramon Vazquez played for the Brewers they could have elite 3B production because Bill Hall is killing lefties to the tune of .350/.416/.620. Righties . . . not so much .168/.228/.322

Gerald Laird - He still can't believe he didn't get traded today with 3 other major league catchers around him. Even with the log jam expect him to get the starts against righties - .343/.395/.483. In 51 ab's against lefties this year he has 1 rbi. He's also hitting .404 in the day time with an OPS at 1.013. It's a little quirky but, get him in there.

Jamie Moyer - It's pretty obvious but Moyer's ERA at home is 4.70 and 3.05 on the road.

Nick Blackburn - Home 3-1, 2.70/1.22, Road 2-4, 4.48/1.32. Also his K/BB is above 3.5/1 overall

Dave Bush - Before today's tough outing at home his Home line read 4-2, 2.85/.99. On the road you don't even want to know. Don't even look it up, trust me.

Do you all think Edinson Volquez sucks?

RJK — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 05:23:12 -0000

Before the '08 season, Baseball Prospectus had this to say about Volquez,

After struggling tremendously in his auditions the last two years, Volquez was sent all the way back down to High-A to regain his confidence. It was a big risk, but it worked. By the time Volquez was back in Triple-A, he was absolutely dominant, and he found his taste of success in the big leagues with two quality starts in six September attempts. He was subsequently dealt to the Reds for Josh Hamilton in what basically amounts to an "I'll give you my talented guy who could go backward at any minute and you give me yours" trade.

Back on March 26th I must have been feeling the flow because at 10:43pm I picked up Edinson Volquez as a FA. It sounds crazy now but, 4 months ago no one knew what they'd get from a young starter who pitches half his games in an extreme hitters park. I'd love to tell you I'd done tons of research, crunched his numbers , and talked to a bunch of scouts before deciding to pick him up. Nope, I just got lucky. So he's been on my team all year, been inserted into the starting lineup every 5 days, and has generally been my second best pitcher behind Brandon Webb.

Now we're four months into the season and after tonight's outing he sits at 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.30 whip. Before tonight's performance Yahoo ranked him as the 12th best starter in baseball in 5x5 category leagues. So most likely he's jumped at least one spot.

So what in the Rodney Dangerfield is going on around here? This guy gets no respect at all. Okay, I'll admit he's slowed down in the past couple months and that he walks too many guys. However, his BAA is 12th in the league at .226 and his opponents are slugging only .328 against him which puts him 6th in all of MLB. When batters aren't getting hits against you and those hits are mostly singles you can get away with more walks. Especially when your K/9 is 9.41.

I understand the level of hypocrisy I'm showing by complaining that he's getting no respect and I've actually been the one shopping him for 6 weeks. I get that it sounds weird when I spit out numbers telling you why he's been great this year and I still cringe every time he pitches. What is it about this guy that freaks me out? I can't pinpoint it but, he still has great numbers and gets no love.

The thing is my trade offers including Volquez aren't just getting rejected they're getting spit on. No one seems to want or trust him. His numbers at this moment place him in the 5th round of next year's draft. Then, why don't I think anyone will touch him before the 7th? Am I crazy or does everyone think this guy sucks?

Poll

You are in a Keeper League that keeps 5 players. This essentially means all 5 players kept should go in the first 5 rounds. If the season ended today, do you consider Edinson Volquez a top 5 round player and thus a keeper?

Yes

22 votes

No

31 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

Trade High

RJK — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:51:09 -0000

I don't drink alcohol, smoke or do drugs. The only buzzes I get are from an occasional Diet Coke. I do get high however. All of you fantasy baseball players know the feeling. The extreme high after making a great trade can carry a fantasy owner for days. I've been wheeling, dealing, and going after the high recently in my keeper league. I wrote about one of the trades in this space recently but, I'll recap them all for you.

Trade 1 - I trade Ryan Braun for Brad Lidge, Rich Harden, and Justin Morneau

Trade 2 - I then trade Justin Morneau for JD Drew and Johan Santana

Trade 3 (today) - Finally, I trade Johan Santana for Vladimir Guerrero, Michael Young, and Chad Billingsley

Since Trade #1 I've traded pieces of the first two deals for other pieces. I have a good lead in this league and at this point I want to step on their throats. I realize I'm trading top talent but, the Yoo-Hoo shower after winning a league will make any weakness in my keeper list tolerable.

Basically I dealt Ryan Braun and end of the bench guys like Jose Guillen, Jon Rauch, and others for Brad Lidge, Rich Harden, JD Drew, Michael Young, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chad Billingsley. I've traded for depth and feel my squad now has what it takes to win it all.

Fake Teams community, do tell me, should I be feeling high or am I trading while high?

PS. Minutes after completing today's trade Michael Young left the game with a broken finger. They say he'll be out for a week. Talk about a buzz kill

Poll

After these 3 deals am I . . . .

Feeling a high?

21 votes

Actually high for making them?

11 votes

32 votes | Poll has closed

It's a Surprise Party!

RJK — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 04:02:33 -0000

Before I start with a few of this seasons biggest surprises, if you haven't seen this please stop and do so now. "I forgot about her face!"

We love baseball for so many reasons, many of which revolve around the inevitable surprises that come with each year. Every season players come out of nowhere to help you win leagues and others bomb to drag your whole team down. With this post I'll take a look at the surprises and disappointments of this year.

If you're feeling like a genius because you're in first place by a mile, do a little humbling by looking at your draft. No matter what your team looks like now, there's probably a few terrible picks. In one of my leagues I'm proudly in first place despite tanking quite a few draft choices including,

6th - Byrnes, 7th - Harang, 9th - Posada, 14th - Pedro, and 16th - T. Pena

This shows us the draft is important but, roster management through the year is just as/if not more important. If a team can be in first place despite getting nothing from it's 6th, 7th, 9th, 14th, and 16th round picks it shows that holes have been filled by players who went undrafted.

To start the surprises here are just a few of the players who went undrafted in a deep 12 team mixed league with 28 players. This is the equivalent of a shallow 15 team league. Keep in mind, these players went UNDRAFTED. I've listed their Yahoo rankings and stats besides them.

- Cliff Lee (5) - 14 Wins, 120 K's, 2.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

- Carlos Quentin (9) - 73 runs, 27 HR's, 78 RBI's, 5 SB, .281 average

- Ryan Ludwick (17) - 68, 23, 70, 4, .291

- Justin Duchscherer (23) - 10, 76, 2.37, 0.94

- Aubrey Huff (36) - 63, 20, 64, 2, .291

- Milton Bradley (48) - 58, 19, 57, 4, .308

- Jorge Cantu (49) - 61, 18, 60, 4, .292

- Ryan Dempster (50) - 11, 117, 2.99, 1.17

- Edinson Volquez (54) - 12, 134, 2.77, 1.31

- Joe Saunders (73) - 13, 66, 3.10, 1.14

- Xavier Nady (78) - 51, 13, 57, 1, .327

- David Murphy (80) - 58,14, 64, 7, .272

- Mike Mussina (89) - 13, 81, 3.26, 1.21

- Jon Rauch (95) - 4, 17, 46, 2.86, .99

These are 13 of Yahoo's top 100 players and they went undrafted in a deep league. Only 13 out of the 28 players I drafted are still on my team in this league. Roster management has been a must.

Disappointments and other undrafted surprises after the jump

Here are players who were drafted in the first 10 rounds and have greatly under -produced due to injury or otherwise. Their draft order position and stats are beside them. All 16 of these players were drafted in the top 10 rounds.

- Eric Bedard (22) - 6, 72, 3.67, 1.32

- JJ Putz (44) - 2, 7, 28, 4.70, 1.83

- Troy Tulowitzki (49) - 21, 3, 18, 1, .213

- Eric Byrnes (69) - my pick - 28, 6, 23, 4, .209

- Aaron Harang (76) - my pick - 3, 108, 4.76, 1.40

- Gary Sheffield (80) - 28, 8, 26, 6, .222

- Ryan Zimmerman (81) - 24, 8, 28, 2.62

- Chris Young, SD (91) - 4, 51, 4.50, 1.48

- Jeff Francoeur (92) - 45, 9, 45, 0, .233

- Jorge Posada (100) - my pick - 18, 3, 22, 0, .268

- Rich Hill (103) - 1, 15, 4.12, 1.58

- Andruw Jones (104) - 20, 2, 12, 0, .166

- Edgar Renteria (107) - 44, 5, 34, 3, .260

- Brett Myers (115) - 3, 90, 5.82, 1.57

- Todd Helton (119) - 39, 7, 29, 0, .266

- Yovani Gallardo (120) - 0, 13, 1.80. 1.25

Next are players who went undrafted that don't show up in Yahoo's top 100 but, look to be major players from here on out. These are the players that may be the difference between 1st and 2nd in your league.

- Jeff Baker - 42, 8, 35, 4, .296

- Mike Gonzalez - 4, 17, 2.70, .68

- Chris Davis - 22, 10, 20, 0, .303

- Alexei Ramirez - 35, 8, 35, 7, .314

- John Danks - 8, 102, 3.18, 1.21

- Mike Pelfrey - 9, 73, 3.67, 1.42

- Aaron Cook - 13, 73, 3.46, 1.23

- Fred Lewis - 63, 7, 29, 17, .272

- Rickey Nolasco - 10, 96, 3.99, 1.23

- JP Howell - 6, 2, 59, 2.43, 1.16

- Manny Parra- 9, 92, 3.72, 1.48

- Armando Galarraga - 8, 75, 3.27, 1.16

- Brandon Morrow - 1, 9, 45, 1.56, 0.87

This is why we love fantasy baseball. It's a game where Brad Ausmus can go 4 for 4 and Geoff Blum can hit 2 hr's in the same game, where Cliff Lee can pull an Esteban Loiza, where Josh Bard can hit his first HR of the season the day after I pick him up out of desperation, where the Braves can blow a 5 run lead the day after blowing a 6 run lead, and where Fernando Tatis' OPS is .890. Don't switch to football quite yet, there's lots of baseball to be played.

Fantasy Notes and Musings

RJK — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 06:39:07 -0000

Fantasy relevant notes from last night:

Geovany Soto (CHC) - Homered for the first time in 2 1/2 weeks against Josh Johnson. Having posted a 2 for 24 since the break, hopefully this is a sign of breaking out of his 2 month slowdown. His OPS since June 1 is hovering at .700.

Chone Figgins (LAA) - Despite a 2 hit, 2 run night Figgins has turned into a 0 category player this year and has certainly disappointed those who drafted him in the 3rd to 5th round. When you have 0 home runs and 11 rbi's in 250 ab's you are hurting your team in 2 categories. If he's been any help in steals this year (and that's not much at all) he's killed his owners in two other categories making him a 0 category player thus far. We saw what he can do when he gets hot (see June '07) but, with names like Garrett Atkins coming up in trade rumors owners of Figgins have to wonder if he'll be able to keep his full-time job the rest of the way.

Chad Billingsley (LAD) - In this space at the beginning of June, I talked about Bills coming back from a difficult start to put up very useful fantasy lines for his owners. Counting last night's win against the Washington Nationals, Chad Billingsley has gone 6-3 with 66 K's in 64.1 innings and a 3.21/1.27 since my previous post. He looks to be a soft #2 starter in next year's draft.

Damaso Marte (PIT/NYY) - Pending a physical Damaso Marte will become property of the New York Yankees and consequently lose all his mixed league value. Short of Rivera taking his annual 15 day DL rest period Marte falls off the map with this deal. It's a grab bag in most leagues for Marte's replacement in Pittsburgh with John Grabow (5-2, 3.08/1.29) and Tyler Yates (4-2, 4.11/1.61) getting the first opportunity to close.

Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) - Has put together back to back great starts to lower his era to 3.18. His home and road split trend has continued this year (2.54 era vs. 4.02era) but, not nearly to the extreme of last year. His K/BB rate is above 3.0. He's just another player who teaches us to wait on starting pitching in the draft.

Joba Chamberlain (NYY) - Counting his dominating performance last night (7.0IP, 3H, BB, 9K) Chamberlain has a 26K's and 2BB's in his last 3 starts. With walks being his biggest problem as a starter his recent success could be the beginning of a necessarily dominant stretch of starts for the Yankees. It's good for his owners too. He's starting to live up to the hype.

JD Drew (BOS) - In a side note, Drew wins the award for best production from a player picked in the last 3 rounds of my shallow 12 team mixed league. Let's keep it up JD, I just traded for you in my keeper league!

2009 First Round / Too soon?

RJK — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 06:09:55 -0000

It's never to early for fantasy junkies to think about projecting next year's draft. So based on this season's first 4 months, who's in and out of next year's 1st round. Order indicates 2008 Average Draft Position from Yahoo:

1. Álex Rodríguez - Most likely sticking at the top spot. With Madge as his muse he'll be unstoppable. 

2. Hanley Ramírez - HR's up, RBI's down, average down, steals down, runs up - 2 up's, 3 down's - Still sticking at #2  

3. David Wright - Numbers down all around but, capable of putting up another 30-30 season any time. Sticking in the 1st round - probably around 6-10 

4. Chase Utley - Showing what he can do when he stays healthy for a full year. Coming off a healthy year he'll go in the top 2-4 despite other great options at 2nd base.

5. Albert Pujols - Will his elbow concerns arise again in the offseason? He's proving preseason doubters wrong with another great campaign. 5-8 in '09

6. Matt Holliday - If he's not traded this trade deadline season there will surely be scared owners on draft day '09. Any trade could bounce him from the 1st round. 

7. José Reyes - Steals are down and power is up a tic. He's been around for awhile so we forget he just turned 25! When he puts up his career season (he hasn't had it yet) it'll be one of the great fantasy seasons of all time. Think Rickey Henderson circa 1985. May not be next year but, it's coming sometime in the next 3. 

8. Jimmy Rollins - His average is back to his career marks. Power is WAY down and steals per game are up. Sounds like BJ Upton and Alex Rios (don't even get me started). Possible 2nd round steal if he rebounds. 

9. Johan Santana - I just got offered Cano/Johan for Morneau. I give Morneau. Am I insane for questioning this deal? Johan used to be the only sure thing in fantasy pitching. Not anymore. Another first round slipper. 2nd, maybe even 3rd round next year. 

10. Ryan Braun - Just traded him away and I know I'll regret it. Even if I will this year because of it. His average is down to where the peripherals say they should be in his career. Even without the high average he'll be a premium slugger for the next decade. Should stay in the back of the first round. If he slips the rest of this year he could slip to the top of the 2nd 

11. Miguel Cabrera - Another slipper but, July could be a sign of a turnaround. 6 HR's, 19 RBI's with 9 games left in the month. He'll slip but, not too much given his age, track record and perceived lineup protection. Someone in one of your leagues may believe in the bounce back year and take him in the late 1st. 

12. Carl Crawford - Ugh, steals and average are way down. The improved lineup around him is willing him towards 100 runs this year. For the first time in his career it won't be because of him. He could fall to the 3rd round.

So Holliday, Rollins, Santana, Cabrera, and Crawford appear to be falling out of the 1st round for one reason or another. That means others will step up to take their place. Based on this season's first 4 months here are some candidates:

- Ian Kinsler - having an '07 Rollins year. Incredible park and lineup protection. Was thought of as a possible 25-25 guy with iffy average. It's turned into 25-40 with high average and 130-140 runs scored. Wawawewa

- Josh Hamilton - Hard to know where his "age 27 season" is. This is technically it but, with all those lost seasons we could be looking at a player who could continue to improve. Injuries may be all that hold him back.

- Lance Berkman - WIll surely get back in the 1st round. The addition of speed to his game means he's a true 5 category player. By 5 category player I mean someone who puts up above-average numbers in all 5 categories. I'm talking 100-30-100-20-300. Lance is doing that this year . . . . easily. Still in his prime for another 2-3 years.

- Grady Sizemore - The average may scare people off but, 40-40 will tempt some to take him in the 8-14 range. His lineup may keep him from a 4 category dominator.

- Ryan Howard - Do you turn down a 50 HR player on the 1st/2nd round wheel? He's a player who you can match up with an opposite player (think Kinsler) to set your offense up across the board.

Sorry no pitchers. Cliff Lee hasn't done it more than one year and Peavy hasn't backed up his ridiculous '07 with a healthy '08. We've mentioned Johan already and barring a dominating August and September I don't see him sticking in the 1st round.

Poll

Who do you take first in this group of 1st round possibilities for '09?

Ian Kinsler

12 votes

Josh Hamilton

27 votes

Lance Berkman

5 votes

Grady Sizemore

23 votes

Ryan Howard

6 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

Rate My Trade - Keeper Edition

RJK — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:39:14 -0000

I made a huge trade yesterday that may determine the final standings of my league. I'll spare you with every category standing so you can rate the trade "in a bubble." Our league keeps up to 5 players each year accounting for the first 5 rounds of the draft.

Team 1 - In 1st place with 93 points trades away Ryan Braun

Team 2 - Tied for 3rd place with 74.5 points trades away Justin Morneau, Rich Harden, and Brad Lidge.

Poll

Who wins this trade?

Team 1 - trades Ryan Braun

55 votes

Team 2 - trades Justin Morneau, Rich Harden, and Brad Lidge

31 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

DePo @ PetCo c/o BP

RJK — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:56:26 -0000

Pretend for a moment you don' t know this is a sports website. Are you pretending? No? Come on, just play along.

Last night I listened to an upper management type from a local business speak. Here are the areas he focused on:

-Process vs. Outcome

-Culture vs. Expectations

-Correlation vs. Causation

-Psychological Biases

-Humility in the face of uncertainty.

Given this list of topics would you think I was referring to baseball? If you were playing along I'm going to say no.

The upper management type I'm speaking of is Paul Depodesta, Assistant to the GM for the San Diego Padres. Last night a group of Baseball Prospectus/Baseball/Padres fans had the opportunity to hear from the Ivy League grad. The night was hosted by BP senior writer Joe Sheehan. We were asked not to share specifics of the evening so I won't discuss the Q&A that followed his address. However, you can infer from the above topics that baseball is run these days more like a MBA program than an ol' boys club.

A big thank you goes to the BP guys for setting up the event. Thanks also go out to the Padres for being willing to have such a large group of hard-core baseball junkies pepper their management with questions about upcoming moves and ineffective draft picks.

On a side note, courtesy of the Union-Tribune:

"Padres CEO Sandy Alderson has reached an agreement with special assistant Paul DePodesta that will keep DePodesta with the club past 2008.

"I fully expect him to be here beyond this year," Alderson said Friday."

Brag Here!

RJK — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 03:58:46 -0000

Hiroki Kuroda's 7 innings of perfect baseball tonight swelled my ego many times over. You see, I picked him up last night for this specific start. For the past 45 minutes I've been hovering over Stattracker and MLB.tv hoping I'd be the guy who picked up the pitcher right before his perfect game. Unfortunately, Mark Texiera's double to lead off the 8th ended my chance to gloat to my league for the rest of the year.

Ron Shandler's 2008 Baseball Forecaster revealed a poll showing 43% of people play fantasy baseball strictly for "the challenge of proving your knowledge". It was by far the #1 answer. We all want to be the guy to pick up the rookie that goes crazy or to trade for the "next big thing". We all want to be the smartest guy in our league but, fantasy baseball gives us opportunities to feel brilliant one moment and stupid one pitch later. Over the years I've certainly had my hits and misses. Here's some of the more memorable ones.

Hits:

-Picking up Ryan Braun in all 3 of my leagues last year. He single handedly moved me up at least 2 positions in each league.

- Kuroda's performance tonight is certainly up there

- Trading Juan Gonzalez for Johan Santana in 2004. Here's the background, Juan Gone was making his comeback with the Royals and was looking so-so through the end of May. Johan on the other hand was coming off a break out year in '03 but, was struggling to start his '04. Through his first 12 starts he was 2-4 with a 5.50 era. The other owner needed power and I needed an arm. I think you know the result. Juan-gone was practically one and gone. He got hurt right away and Johan went on to go 18-4 with 1.44 era and a 6.6/1 K/BB rate. Hello!! That's one I'll be telling the grandkids about.

Misses:

-Having Fernando Tatis on the bench during "the game". Which game you ask? If you're asking you certainly didn't have him on your team that day. Tatis hit 2 grandslams in one inning. Ouch is an understatement.

-Picking Liriano in the 9th round and Andruw Jones in the 11th round this year. Waiting to take a catcher in the 21st so I could target JR Towles didn't help either.

-Holding on to Roger Clemens and Homer Bailey for a combined year in '07. Their "production" certainly wasn't worth the wait.

Who are your hits and misses through the years? See if you can beat Juan for Johan or Tatis on the bench.