SB Nation User Blog: Rafael Vela

Cowboys Pre-Camp: The Far Side of Optimism

Rafael Vela — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 04:23:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Roy E. Williams (4) needs better health from his receiver mates. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

More promising and some not so promising news and notes from the recently completed Cowboys camps:

--None of the rookies are counted on this year but a few made positive impressions. I was told quarterback Stephen McGee will take time, but has the required skill set. My source said of McGee, "he's competitive, makes accurate throws and can move around a bit...I Iike the kid."

-- The U of Cincinnati duo of Mike Mickens and D'Angelo Smith also got a brief, positive mention. With the second and third year corners and safeties making a push (see yesterday's report) these guys will have time to develop without immediate pressure. 4th round pick Brandon Williams lacks that luxury. He also stood out, but I was told Williams will have to rush the passer exclusively this season. This suggests to me that Williams lacks the power to hold the point. On the plus side, it appears Jay Ratliff is not the only person who noticed Williams rush skills.

I don't know how effective Williams can be, but if he and starter Anthony Spencer can divide up Greg Ellis' eight '08 sacks in some combination, they'll keep offensives from sliding their blocking schemes towards Demarcus Ware.

-- 3rd-rounder Robert Brewster was the last rookie who stood out for my source. Brewster impressed with his effort but I was told he'll need time to develop, and build his strength.

One player who didn't impress was Brewster's linemate Montrae Holland. I understand he does not look any more svelte than last year. If Kyle Kosier rehabs slowly, we may be looking at another Holland/Cory Proctor rotation at left guard, at least early on. That can't make anybody smile.

The second significant caveat involves the receivers. The backups Miles Austin, Sam Hurd and Isaiah Stanback barely practiced this month. The National Football Press' Mike Lombardi wrote an excellent piece last week explaining why this makes organizations fret:

Practice repetitions are directly tied to the time allowed for each period. So there might be a two-hour practice, 120 minutes, but in that time, there are 60 repetitions in all phases of the game. For example, if a team is working on its inside run drill, it might want to get 12 plays/repetitions in that period. In camp, there are normally three groups of players -- three teams of offensive and defensive players -- so some players might only get two repetitions. Before the assistant coaches leave for vacation, they must know how many repetitions each player will be able to get before the first game, in all phases of the game. Clearly, the more reps, the better chance a player has to either improve or, in some cases, fail to meet the challenge.

When injuries become a part of the above equation, the amount of repetitions is reduced, resulting in limited progress for the player and the team...

Jason Garrett certainly has an idea of how many reps Hurd, Stanback and, most importantly, Austin need. These guys are not rookies, but they're not polished pros either. They need as many reps as they can get. They're going to San Antonio with little practice mileage on their odometers. It's not critical on June 26th, but watch the injury reports in camp closely. If more than one of these guys misses significant time there with a pull, sprain, or other ailment, wide receiver becomes a major concern.

Dallas Thinks Safety First -- Finally

Rafael Vela — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 05:55:52 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Dallas Cowboys secondary coach Dave Campo, here with rookie cornerback Mike Mickens (33) may have a top secondary in the works. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Improved Secondary Play Should Make the New Stadium Blitz City

In the last three years, I've probably devoted more lines to analyzing, and ripping the Cowboys mediocre safety play than I have on any other subject. How many spring pieces were devoted to safety draft options? How many people were content with the team's offseason moves there, given that it only signed the greatly overlooked Gerald Sensabaugh in free agency, and didn't spend a draft pick on the spot until the 5th round, when Michael Hamlin became a Cowboy?

I spoke to a trusted source today who has seen several of the team's recent workouts. He predicted the secondary would be a team strength this year and mentioned some unexpected names as reasons for optimism, at the safety position and for the secondary as a whole.

The source reinforced head coach Wade Phillips' claims that Sensabaugh can play. What's more, I was told that third-year D-back Alan Ball worked out at corner and safety and impressed at both spots. Courtney Brown also earned some praise, but Ball was singled out for his performances.

This news marks an incredible improvement in the quality and scope of Ball's play. Recall that just one year ago, Ball beat out veteran Evan Oglesby for the final cornerback slot. This caused some fans to howl i disapproval, since Oglesby had been an early star of the Oxnard workouts. Ball, however, showed that position coach Dave Campo's faith was well-placed. He was prepared when he was thrown into the Tampa Bay game and did not embarrass himself in later appearances.

The impressive showings by Sensabaugh, Ball and Brown mean Dallas could finally have depth, after two years where Ken Hamlin was the team's only dependable safety. If these three can carry their play into the summer and fall, Dallas will have four safeties with coverage skills, a welcome improvement from the Roy Williams, Keith Davis and Pat Watkins days.

The improved speed and range should give Wade Phillips the option to press more and to blitz more often. With the Dallas linebacker pass rush in questionable shape after Greg Ellis' departure, Phillips was likely to blitz more heavily anyway. Now, he may do so with greater confidence.

Building a Winning Game Plan, Part III: Dallas' Red Zone Defense

Rafael Vela — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:19:17 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Can Wade Phillips point.the defense to a better red-zone ranking?

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In part three of the series, I look at the defense's red-zone ratings and find that the defense was not directly responsible for the dropoff in red zone performance. This dropoff was a team effort.

The Importance of Possessions

Working through Brian Billick's guidelines, I'm learning that red-zone efficiency does not offer a direct correlation to winning. You can't look at the top ten teams and see the playoff field represented. For instance, last year's 0-16 Lions ranked fifth overall in offensive red-zone efficiency.

Conversely, several of the dominant teams like the Giants and Eagles rated mid-pack, like the '07 Cowboys.

Is the stat worthless? No, but one red-zone stat is more informative than others. Possession stats give a much clearer idea of who's winning and who is losing. That should make sense. If a team is getting more scoring opportunities than its opponent it will likely win on the scoreboard more often than not.

The Cowboys took steps back on offense and defense. Look at the turnaround from '07 to '08:

Red Zone Possessions	2007	2008
Offense	56	44
Defense	44	56

A complete flip. Dallas has a +12 red zone possession ratio when it was 13-3. It was -12 when it dropped to 9-7.

What's responsible for this defensive drop? Dallas' defensive red zone rankings were quite good last year:

	2007	2008
Possessions	44	56
Touchdowns	22	26
Field Goals	15	26
TD rank	T-9th	T-13th
FG rank	T-13th	T-31st
Scoring % rank	11th	27th
TD % rank	10th	6th

We can see the damage caused when the possessions-allowed balloons by a dozen. Dallas surrendered touchdowns at a lower rate but gave up four more overall because teams got inside the Cowboys' 20 so often. Only five teams allowed more red zone possessions than the Cowboys' 56. As you might guess, those five -- the Lions, Chiefs, Saints, Broncos and Jets -- joined Dallas as playoffs spectators.

But what caused the increase? The Cowboys ranked better in pass defense. They had a better rush. They ranked better in yards allowed, and were better in passing yards allowed. Did the team fall apart on 3rd down?

No. Dallas 3rd down % improved from 39.1 in 2007 to 36.4 last year. The team was not worse at getting off the field.

The cause is likely a combination of increased Dallas turnovers and the meltdown of the coverage teams. The Cowboys had the worst kickoff team in terms of distance and was one of the worst in opponent's starting field position. The teams punting average dropped when Mat McBriar went on IR.

Two games show how sub-par coverage and turnovers can make a defense look bad. In week five the Cowboys were blowing out Cincinnati. Just before the half, Tony Romo fumbled when being chased out of the pocket. A fifteen yard penalty on Marion Barber set up Cincinnati just outside the red zone. The defense stiffened inside the 20, but the short field gifted the Bengals a field goal.

In the third quarter, one play after Dallas had scored on a long Romo-to-T.O. pass, the kickoff team gave up a 60 yard return. Cincinnati started on the Cowboys' 37 and just a couple of minutes later nullified the Cowboys' six.

A more egregious example came against Pittsburgh. Romo tossed a pick at his own 27 just before the half. The defense kept the Steelers out of the end zone but Pittsburgh got three. In the fourth, the punt return team gave up a 35 yard return, after a 37 yard punt. The two yard net set the Steelers up on the Dallas 25. Dallas prevented a first down but the Steelers dented the red zone and claimed a second field goal. Add a late Romo pick-six and the offense and special teams gift wrapped thirteen of Pittsburgh's 20 points.

The defense had great red zone stats. They allowed just one touchdown drive, and stopped a second on downs inside the five. Pittsburgh's red zone TD success rate was just 25%, but two would likely not have occurred with better ball custody.

In both cases, the defense's red zone stats were inflated through no fault of their own. But nine extra Cowboys turnovers and repeated punt and kickoff breakdowns meant too many short fields.

Joe DeCamillis was brought in to improve the coverage schemes. A host of rookies who excelled on special teams will give DeCamillis a chance to improve field position. The team is talking a good game about turnovers. Can these areas be improved?

A return to the playoff field should be the reward for improvement. Failure likely means another frustrating 9-7.

Building a Winning Game Plan, Part II: Dallas' Defensive Turnovers

Rafael Vela — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 03:39:17 -0000

In part two of this series, I examine Dallas' effectiveness at creating turnovers, and how the team can return to its 2007 levels.

The Incredible Shrinking Interception Totals

The '08 Cowboys offer a paradox. How can a team whose passing defense ranking rose from 13th in '07 to 10th, and whose sack totals jumped from 46 in Wade Phillips' first year to a league-leading 58, see its turnover totals drop 24%, with its interception total dropping 58%?

Dallas Defense	2006	2007	2008
Fumbles recovered	13	10	14
Interceptions	18	19	8
Turnover total	31	29	22
TD passes allowed	25	19	19
Pass defense rank	24th	13th	10th

Let's focus on that black number eight. How could a defense with a top-drawer rush and fewer yards allowed intercept just eight passes? Comparing Dallas' '07 and '08 coverage metrics, two explanations emerge.

The first is age. Right corner Anthony Henry's success rate dropped from 48 to 35% and his yards per attempt allowed jumped from 6.6 to 7.7. As Henry's closing speed eroded, his interception total plummeted from six to one.

The second is sub-par strong safety play. We've beaten this subject to death, but Roy Williams' injuries, and Keith Davis' physical limitations dropped the SS's overall performance down. What's more, it had a detrimental effect on Ken Hamlin's play,and contributed to his drop from five picks in '07 to just one last year.

Long-time readers of my old site know Keith has been a secondary scapegoat for years. That's because Davis posted the worst YPAs of any starting free safety in '05 and '06. That's not Davis' fault. He's always been better suited to play in the box and was badly miscast playing in center field in Bill Parcells' last two defenses.

Hamlin offered an immediate and immense upgrade in '07:

Ken Hamlin	2007	2008
Direct Coverage YPA	4.9	9.7
Dir. Cov. Success %	59.1%
Deep Assist YPA*	6.0	10.0
Deep Asst. Scs%	85.0	60.0

*(Deep assists catalog the plays where a safety helped a corner in double coverage.)

Hamlin's numbers dropped a fair amount last year, but those are still respectable totals. Remember, Pat Watkins' YPA and success percentage in '06 were 15.1 and 53.3%. Davis' were even worse the year before.

Let's now take a look at Roy Williams' coverage numbers from his healthy'06 an '07 and those the gimpy Roy, Davis and Pat Watkins amassed in their three man SS rotation last season:

	2006	2007	2008
Direct Coverage YPA	10.3	7.8	15.8
Direct Coverage %	60.9	31.0	15.0

Roy offered two half-a-loaf seasons in '06 and '07. His success rate was very high in '06, but he gave up a large number of yards when he surrendered a catch. Wade Phillips promised his scheme would limit the number of times Williams was exposed in deep coverage. Williams posted a career best 7.8 YPA in '07, a result of playing in shallow zones. His success rate dropped almost 50% however, showing that his short-zone coverage skills were nothing to brag about.

Last year, the Williams-Watkins-Davis trio was the worst of all worlds. They could not stop passes and they gave up big gains on a regular basis.

That might be overlooked if they offered strong run support, but they did not. KC Joyner's new run metrics have a category called sky tackles, which measure the number of tackles a team's safety made in the backfield or within five yards of the line of scrimmage. It measures a safeties effectiveness at filling the lane on tosses or isolation runs:

Williams-Watkins-Davis sky tackles: 16
Hamlin sky tackles: 13

Hamlin almost had as many sky tackles starting twelve yards deep at the free as the strong safeties did playing in the box. This says that Hamlin had to cover a lot for the strong safeties: Roy L. had 92 tackles in '07. He and Davis combined for 45 last year.

Hamlin was trying to defy the laws of physics last year; he played a lot closer to the line of scrimmage in run support while trying to maintain in deep patrol. His single interception shows he failed.

The early reports on Gerald Sensabaugh have been glowing. He was signed for his coverage skills, which appear to supercede those of the three guys he's replacing. We won't know until the full pads come on in August, but he could well be the most important roster addition this year. If he's half as good as the coaches claim, the turnovers which went missing last year will return.

Game Planning to Victory, Pt. One: Dallas' Red Zone Efficiency

Rafael Vela — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 17:36:05 -0000

Although research suggests that any number of variables can and will intervene to affect performance and the outcome of a game, over the last few years a clear-cut pattern has been established... four factors have been identified that have a consistently high correlation to a team's winning and losing:

Red zone efficiency

1st down efficiency

Turnovers

Explosive plays

-- Brian Billick, Developing an Offensive Game Plan (1997)

Billick frustrated Baltimore fans by running an anti-offensive while at the Ravens helm. That was probably due to Baltimore's lack of offensive skill position weapons. When he coordinated Minnesota in the '90, he ran one of the NFL's flashiest, most productive units. His ideas hold up.

With that in mind, let's use Billick's standards to assess the Cowboys' offense and defense. Some people like to slam Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett, using terms like "predictable" and "stupid." We like to go beyond the slurs here at BTB. Let's take a look under the hood to see how the '07 Cowboys offense and '08 Cowboys offense compare. Today, we're going to compare red-zone performance for the '07 offense and the '08 edition. Later, we'll examine the offense and defense in each of these four categories.

When we're finished, we should have a much clearer understanding on the real causes for the team's decline from 13-3 to 9-7. We should also have a better hand on what needs to be improved to restore the lost wins.

Dallas' Offensive Red Zone Statistics, 2007 and 2008

	2007	2008
Possessions	56	44
Touchdowns	30	26
Field Goals	18	8
Empty possessions	8	10
Possessions rank	4th	25th
Touchdowns rank	6th	20th
touchdown % rank	15th	8th
scoring % rank	16th	31st

Let's begin with the one good stat from 2008. Last year's team was more efficient at making touchdowns than the '07 offense, though it notched four fewer wins. Dallas ranked 8th in the percentage of times it turned a red zone possession into a touchdown.

That said, the Cowboys were not outstanding in scoring efficiency in either year. In the 13-3 year Dallas ranked a mid-pack 16th in red zone scoring possession.

Why then, was the first team so good? Look at the top two stats. The '07 Cowboys played the numbers game. They got into the red zone a whopping 56 times, ranking 4th in that category. Only Tom Brady's Pats, Peyton Manning's Colts and that year's Jaguars had more red zone possessions. And Dallas got the ball into the end zone 30 times, ranking 6th in that category.

Last year's team dropped 21% in red zone possessions from the year before. Even though it made a modest increase in touchdown efficiency, it didn't score as many touchdowns. Why the dip? We can speculate on several reasons, but I think the first down and explosive play breakdowns will offer us the evidence we're looking for. We can also look at injuries to see how they effected the offense's ability to move between the 20s. For the moment, let's just note that Dallas had 12 fewer red zone trips last year than it did the year before.

Let's also eliminate one possible culprit from the list. Nick Folk was 8-9 last year on field goal attempts where the ball was snapped inside the 20. That's an 89% success rate. The year before, Folk was 18-20 on such attempts. That's a 90% rate. Folk kicked the same. His attempts, however were more than cut in half.

So what affected Dallas? Let's begin the autopsy with category four, what I term "empty possessions." This is the number of red zone trips where Dallas didn't score. The Cowboys had two more of these last year, even though they had twelve fewer trips inside the red zone. Turnovers are the biggest culprit here, but the Tony Romo haters should hold off lurching for their voodoo dolls. There was plenty of blame to spread in this category. I can think of Marion Barber and Romo coughing up the ball inside the ten versus the Eagles. I can see Brad Johnson tossing a red zone pick in the Giants loss. I can see T.O. fumbling away a Johnson pass later in the same game.

Dallas had a red zone turnover problem, and it was team wide. But that stat will get its own story later on. Again, let's note for the time being that turnovers were a second factor, in addition to fewer possessions, that dropped this team to 31st in red zone scoring last year.

"More and more teams are playing a loose 4-across zone concept inside the red zone. The result is that there are fewer of the man-to-man match ups that made pick routes prominent in earlier years. This zone concept puts a higher priority on being able to run the ball effectively and hitting underneath routes that (hopefully) enable receivers to score after catching the ball."

-- Billick, Developing an Offensive Game Plan, p. 58

(emphasis mine)

Billick offers a common sense point. The teams that run the ball most effectively tend to be the best red zone teams. Think of the '90s Cowboys. They could and would pound the ball on anybody. When Dallas got inside the ten, Emmitt Smith was going to run off tackle or he was going to run an isolation play behind Daryl Johnston. Smith was always among the league leaders in touchdowns scored. Consequently, Michael Irvin and Troy Aikman were awful fantasy options because Dallas rarely threw for red zone touchdowns.

Now, let's examine the Garrett offenses:

Rushing TDs

2007 -- 14
2008 -- 12

Those are weak numbers. Last year's are even weaker when you consider that Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had three long TD runs between them. The '08 Cowboys had only nine red zone rushing touchdowns.

The reasons are crystal clear. K.C. Joyner's new run stats (I cannot hype his new book enough. Order it ASAP) break down rushing effectiveness by run type; he cataloged all the toss plays, all the counters, all the draws, all the iso plays, stretch plays, dives and off tackles, and found some puzzling numbers. The '08 Cowboys were quite good at plays that required the offensive linemen to pull -- the tosses, sweeps, counters, etc. They were, conversely, awful on plays that called for straight-ahead, man-to-man blocking. I can't post the stats here, but Dallas' yards per attempt on isolations, dives and off-tackle runs were abysmal.

These are precisely the types of runs you need to execute inside an opponent's red zone. Tosses and counters are far less effective here, because all secondary defenders are bunched far closer to the line of scrimmage. When you're inside another team's ten, you're facing eleven-man fronts.

How many times did you find yourself screaming at the TV when Dallas lined up in the shotgun in the red zone and ran draws? How many times did you call Jason Garrett a nasty name? The Cowboys self scout their plays. They break down how each play call works. They've done this since the Landry days. The heavy draw calls were not a case of an OC getting cute, but of a play caller working his strongest hand. I've seen the run breakdowns. They don't lie.

The power run stats don't make sense. The Cowboys have big, beefy linemen, who can man block. Yet, the linemen were poor on plays that should be their bread and butter. As a result, Dallas has passed for red zone touchdowns twice as often the last two years as it has run for them. That's a lot of pressure to put on your quarterback. It's certainly not the "Romo-friendly" style of offense the Cowboys want to run.

If Dallas wants to improve its red zone performance this year, it will be on Hudson Houck and his linemen to raise their power running productivity. Turnovers will also have to come down, but the biggest change will need to come from the bigg guys on the line of scrimmage.

A reminder that camp is now just six weeks away. Grizz and I are planning extensive coverage from San Antonio. Your donations help us bring you the best camp coverage anywhere. Just click the link in the right hand column. Grizz and I thank you in advance. Don't forget that every $10 dollars you contribute gets you an entry in our drawing for two tickets to the first Cowboys game in the new stadium!

Fun with Scientific Football '09: The Corner Kids Are Alright

Rafael Vela — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 03:34:04 -0000

I had a long talk with the Football Scientist K.C. Joyner yesterday. He's hard at work on Scientific Football '09, and he gave me an extended peek at what promises to be the biggest and best edition yet.

I can't reveal very much of what I saw but I will show you how you can get your own early access to the book as it develops. What I can share are a few pass coverage metrics which strongly suggest that the Cowboys were right to promote the kids Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick to right corner and slot corner.

Midway through the '08 season, shortly after the blowout loss to the Giants, I spoke to a source who told me he was hearing through league grapevines that teams were targeting Anthony Henry, feeling he had lost his top gear. Some of these sources felt, at that early stage, that Mike Jenkins was a better option at corner. He was green, but he had the athleticism and recovery speed Henry no longer seemed to possess.

Dallas stuck with Henry the rest of the way, inserting him in the lineup when he recovered from his usual assortment of strains and sprains. They didn't stay with him a minute longer than that; Henry was swapped to Detroit in the Jon Kitna deal and Jenkins today mans the right corner slot opposite Terence Newman.

The '08 pass metrics show that the veterans dropped badly last year. Here's a four year chart of Henry and Newman's YPAs. (League rank in parentheses)

Player-team	2005	2006	2007	2008	Avg.
Terence Newman	5.8 (7th)	7.1 (29th)	6.1 (14th)	8.3	6.8
Anthony Henry	7.7 (53rd)	6.7 (20th)	6.6 (22nd)	7.7	7.2

It is not surprising, but until last year, Newman was consistently better than Henry. Both dropped off last year, but for different reasons. Newman fought a hernia, which finally shut him down mid-season. He had some of his worst-ever games just before the surgery, most notably in the October Redskins loss, where Santana Moss roasted him.

Those injured games inflated Newman's numbers, but he had some strong games post-surgery. He contained Moss in the rematch win and kept Domenik Hixon under wraps in Dallas' December win over the Giants.

Evidence that Newman still has it when healthy (and I should point out that his '04 through '07 YPA average ranked 2nd among NFL corners who played all four seasons) was his 40.4% success rate against passes his way. 40% is the dividing line for starting corners; a percentage above 40 denotes quality. The further below it the fall, the more sub-par you are.

Newman success percentage averaged 44.7% the previous three seasons and he kept it above 40% even when hobbled.

Henry, on the other hand, saw his percentage plummet to 35% just one season after posting a very strong 48%. In fact, Henry's breakup percentages were consistently better than Newman's his first three years in Dallas. His lowest total came in '06, when he posted a 45% success rate. Dave Campo summed up Henry's game perfectly in camp when he told me, "he's not the fastest guy, but he gets his hands on a lot of footballs." Until '08, this was definitely the case. It does appear, however, that Henry's closing skills began to abandon him last year, and quickly.

And the rookies? Scandrick and Jenkins both posted YPAs under 6.0, which are excellent. Their success percentages were well into the 40s. Scandrick came remarkably close to the 50% mark, which is the true floor for anybody wanting to lay claim to the misleading "shut-down corner" title. As I wrote last year:

Stopping opponents 50% of the time appears to be the threshold for being considered a shutdown corner. In the last three years ['05-'07] only 38 corners have achieved this — 9 in 2005, 17 in 2006 and 12 last season. Since shutdown connotes performance far above 50%, I think that the term should be discarded or ignored; literal shut-down corners simply don’t exist.

Only once in that span has a corner topped 60% in success percentage, that coming last year when the Raiders Nnamdi Asomugha posed a 62.9% success rate. Asomugha is the hardest corner to throw against, topping 50% in each of the last three years, the only cornerback to do so.

-- Do YPAs Mimic the SAT? BSR, July 14, 2008

The Cowboys appear to have hit with both their big '08 corner picks, and given Henry's seeming rapid decline, the timing could not have been better. Many Cowboys fans are anxious because the team is entrusting a lot of key spots to youngsters this year. In the secondary, I think it's the older hands, Newman and Ken Hamlin, who have the bigger questions to answer. The kids, based on their admittedly small '08 samples, appear to be fine.

Want the full corner numbers?

Want to know if Demarcus Ware really is a complete, dominant linebacker?

Want to know where Jay Ratliff ranks among NFL nose tackles against the run?

Want to know if Flozell Adams is in early decline or merely worked through a series of injuries?

Want to know how Anthony Spencer's play compared to Greg Ellis', and if Dallas cast off the vet too soon?

Don't want to wait until camp for the answers? I recommend following this link to Scientific Football 2009's page. This year's book contains running game metrics, in addition to the usual passing game stats. This gives an idea of how each team's offensive and defensive front sevens performed last season.

Joyner is using the internet to give early buyers early access to his stats. He's completing stats one division at a time and told me that anybody who orders the book now will get the run stats e-mailed to them every week as he completes them. He had the AFC East and NFC West completed as of Sunday and will post the NFC East late this week.

These stats will let you compare Dallas' offensive line to every other one in the division -- and the league. You can see how the Dallas tackles compare to the Eagles', and the Giants' and the Redskins'. You can see if Jason Peters is really worth the big deal Philly gave him. You can see how each Dallas defensive lineman and linebacker did against the run. And you can get the numbers ASAP. Just go here.

And dont' forget to tell KC BloggingtheBoys sent you.

PS -- while you're purchasing your football fix, also consider pre-ordering the Maple Street Press Cowboys 2009 Annual you see in the right hand column. K.C. has a fabulous column using many of these same metrics there.

Wade's World! Wade's World!

Rafael Vela — Tue, 26 May 2009 22:00:40 -0000

More photos » by MATT SLOCUM - AP

Greg Ellis is just the latest in a long, long line of Parcells Era defensive back seven players to leave the team.

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Party time? Excellent?

The answers to those questions -- for Wade and for us -- are months away. In the meantime, it's amazing to see how much he's turned over the defense in just two years. Like Bill Parcells, Wade Phillips was mostly content to play with the hand dealt him his inaugural year. Yes, the Cowboys selected Anthony Spencer in the first round, but he was a hedge against a slow rehab by Greg Ellis, who had torn an Achilles tendon in the Tuna's final go-round.

Wade went 13-3 with Bill's guys, and went one-and-out in the playoffs when the backup corner depth let him down. Jacques Reeves and Nate Jones couldn't hold up against the Patriots and Giants of the world and Anthony Henry wasn't getting any younger. To no one's surprise, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick got early attention in last year's draft.

What may have surprised some is how big a second helping of defensive back seven help Wade and the scouts took this year: three of Dallas' first five picks were for linebackers. Then, four of the next six picks went on secondary players, though Stephen Hodge will likely be groomed to take Kevin Burnett's nickel linebacker role, if top pick Jason Williams doesn't beat Hodge to it.

This means that before Wade Anno Tre even begins, the heart of Bill's last '06 defensive back seven has either departed or is on very thin ice. Consider:

In the secondary, only Terence Newman is assured a starting spot. And only Pat Watkins remains from the backups, though the odds are not in Watkins' favor, with Orlando Scandrick getting some consideration for nickel safety and rookie DeAngelo Smith sure to get his shot. If Watkins gets cut, only one Parcells guy will remain on a unit that usually carries nine players.

Still, from '06: Terence Newman

Out: Anthony Henry, Keith Davis, Roy Williams, Jacques Reeves, Nate Jones, Aaron Glenn, Abram Elam

Maybe: Pat Watkins

At linebacker, Demarcus Ware and Bradie James are keepers from the Parcells era. As with the secondary, everybody else is either gone, or on a rent-don't-buy edict.

Still, from '06: Demarcus Ware, Bradie James

Out: Akin Ayodele, Greg Ellis, Al Singleton, Kevin Burnett, Ryan Fowler

Maybes: Bobby Carpenter, Justin Rogers

Carpenter is the Watkins of linebackers. He'll get first crack at filling Burnett's shoes, but he may be little more than a placeholder if Jason Williams or Hodge can develop quickly. Rogers wasn't on the '06 team, arriving as a waiver claim after the final '07 cutdowns, but he's another Bruce Read Era special teams maybe; he's made the team with his kick coverage skills, but can't get on the field in regular defensive packages. That spells trouble in a year when Dallas drafted heavily for special teams.

The bottom line is a grim one if you're a member of the Parcells-Ireland Academy. Linebackers and secondary players get seventeen to eighteen spots on a roster. This year, we're going to see five Tuna guys at most and as few as three in those two corps.

Anybody want to guess that Dallas won't go hard for defensive linemen next year, whether Wade returns or not? Four Parcells guys are still around, but three, Marcus Spears, Jason Hatcher and Stephen Bowen, know they need to crank it up a notch or two or the scouts will come for their jobs too.

Meta Media Wednesday: Let Gruden be Chucky -- Please

Rafael Vela — Wed, 20 May 2009 14:23:46 -0000

You're probably heard the promising news that Jon Gruden will replace the insufferable Tony Kornheiser on ESPN's Monday Night Football announcing team.

That's a good start. Gruden is the most inspired hiring in years, though we're guaranteed no improvements unless Gruden is willing to let his Chucky personality run free on air. I'm hopeful, but not enthusiastic about this last point.

Gruden could work for two reasons. Network announcing teams too often employ former players, members of what Howard Cosell derisively called the "jockocracy." Some players are smart, and provide a comprehensive view of the game. But too many of them lock in on their old positions -- former QBs talk exclusively about quarterback play. Former running backs talk about the backfield.

I've argued that the best choices for the booth would be former coordinators. They study tape for a living and have a comprehensive view of the game. Gruden has been a top-level OC and head coach for years. There's no doubt he will understand the game unfolding in front of him better than most. If he can articulate that insight in simple, real-time terms, we fans will have a chance for enlightenment.

What's more, ESPN uses a three man booth, and Gruden will be paired with tape-head Ron Jaworski. Announcer teams work better when they fill one of two templates: the self-evident, hardcore analyst team, or the Odd-Couple team, where two contrary personalities joust.

Gruden and Jaworski should give us better analysis than we've heard in a while. One expert is good, but he really needs a second strong opinion to maximize his talents. One of the best broadcasts I ever heard came decades ago, in a CBS Sports summer boardcast of a Pan American Games match between the US Mens basketball team and Puerto Rico's. In the booth that day were Gary Bender, Bill Russell and Bobby Knight.

Russell was CBS's NBA commentator and had a reputation for aloofness and arrogance. Knight, as always, was Knight, loud and abrasive. Together, they formed a mutual respect society; I understood after two minutes that neither was bad so much as bored; they didn't have a TV partner who shared their knowledge and passion. They brushed aside Bender, who had the good sense to mute himself, and talked hard-core hoops. I learned more about the game that afternoon that I had in a short lifetime of viewing.

Jaworski and Gruden could give us that transcendent experience. If they're really smart, and brave, they'll take a few hours and watch some old tapes of Howard Cosell and Dandy Don Meredith. Those guys created TV history because they saw themselves as above the game. They were competing with sitcoms on other networks and they were as good, in their time, as the most seasoned comedy teams. In its glory days, Monday Night Football was a sitcom with a football game happening inside it. Ironically, the broadcasts have suffered since the producers started foregrounding the football.

Neither Jaworski nor Gruden are comedians, but they're both rough-hewn types, who don't lack for opinions. If they're willing to take sides in a game and critique the coaches and players, MNF could regain some much needed spark. Jaws and Chucky could do Howard and Dandy one better: they could form a expert and an odd couple booth.

Sadly, I don't think Gruden will be up for it, and I don't know if I can fault him if he doesn't rise to the opportunity. Gruden no doubt wants to return to the sidelines, so he will probably go easy on his coaching colleagues. There's no need to make enemies.

Oh well. If he and Jaws stick to football, and keep Tirico focused on the basics, like down and distance, Monday night football might be watchable again. Kornheiser was an interesting experiment, but his premediated editorials didn't translate well from newspapers, or even from PTL into a medium which relies on quick analyses and a quicker wit. The first time he tried comparing an NFL game to a '50s Broadway musical, I knew the experiment was doomed.

I'll take football talk, in any strength I can get.

Cowboys Schedule '09: Shootout City, or it's all in the DC's Hands

Rafael Vela — Tue, 19 May 2009 16:03:34 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, and quarterback Kyle Orton are two "shootout potential" opponents the '09 Cowboys will have to face. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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If Wade Phillips the head coach wants to continue, he's best advised to have a heart-to-heart with his defensive coordinator, some guy named Wade Phillips, because the season will likely ride on DC Wade's skill at game planning and game calling.

The Cowboys schedule offers opportunity, and danger. Danger, because Dallas will face some of the league's best offenses. Ten games are up for teams with offenses ranked in the top eleven last year. Add 14th rated Tampa Bay, which added Kellen Winslow this winter, and the Cowboys will see eleven games against teams rated in the top half.

On the other hand, Dallas has nine games against teams with defenses in the bottom third. Many of these teams are one and the same: Dallas' season will likely rise or fall on six games with shootout potential, where the opponents have a top-10 rated offense and a low-rung defense. These games:

Team	Off. Rank	Def. Rank	Sacks Rank
vs. Saints	1st	23rd	22nd
vs. Broncos	2nd	29th	26th
vs Falcons	6th	24th	11th
vs Packers	8th	20th	25th
vs. Panthers	10th	18th	9th
vs. Chargers	11th	25th	22nd

These teams can all move the ball and score. Only one of these teams -- Green Bay -- had a losing record, and it was 13-3 the year before.

I think a healthy Cowboys offense will be able to rack up yards and points on these teams. A lot of people waffle on Jason Garrett. I don't. I think injuries crippled his team and made him look dumb. The '07 Cowboys offensive starters lost so few games to injury you could count them on your fingers: T.O. missed one start; Patrick Crayton missed three and Andre Gurode missed two. That's it. Last year, Owens, Crayton and the right side of the line -- Gurode, Davis and Colombo -- were the only offensive players who didn't suffer a serious injury or three.

A healthy line and healthy backs and receivers should revive the offense. That and some weak pass rushes. Notice how few of these shootout-potential teams have good rushes. Atlanta ranked high, but John Abraham had half of his team's 33 sacks. The story was the same in Carolina, where Julius Pepper's 14.5 made up much of the team's 37 total sacks.

Dallas plays only two teams that can really bring heat, the Eagles and Giants. That means these six key games should come down to Wade Phillips' skill at slowing their offenses down. Can he keep Drew Brees from going crazy, as he did in '06? Does he have a book on his old San Diego QB Phillip Rivers? Will he expose Matt Ryan as a fluke? Can he shut Aaron Rogers down the way he did in '08? Or will Rogers scramble and score on Wade's guys the way he did in '07?

Dallas had the NFL's best rush last year, and the brass gave him more rookie rushers and more safety options. If the kids can give Demarcus Ware more rush support, and pick off some of the errant throws the rush produces, the Cowboys go back to the post season.

Will they? That fate literally rests in DC Wade's hands, in the defensive play sheet he will carry every Sunday.

HC Wade shouldn't want it any other way.

Cowboys Offense '09: Is it Tiki Barber Time for Felix Jones?

Rafael Vela — Wed, 13 May 2009 04:07:35 -0000

Another year, another running back controversy.

Debating running back carries and value has become the favored topic among Cowboys' faithful. In '06 and '07 the Marion-vs.-Julius debate was in full roar. Last year, there was much preseason debate about Dallas' selection of Felix Jones, and whether Rashard Mendenhall should have been the pick. Once Jones showed big play abilities, a hint of a Felix-vs.-Marion debate began, though Jones went down with injury before it could erupt.

That didn't mean MarionBarber was safe. He was the people's choice over Julius Jones, but when Tashard Choice showed he could handle a heavy load in December -- while Barber gimped around on a dislocated pinkie toe -- some fans were in fact calling for number 24 to be shipped out of town for the first big-name receiver available.

The bigger question, entering 2009, is how the Cowboys will use their lode of rushing talent?

Answering the big question means first answering a series of smaller ones. To begin, how much will Dallas run the ball?

Let's begin by looking at Dallas' run/pass blends for '07 and '08. The Cowboys ran almost exact play totals each year -- 950 in Jason Garrett's first year and 948 last year. That's just over 59 plays a game. To keep things simple, I'm going to:

a. assume that Dallas keeps the same number of plays this year and;

b. round the total to 60 plays per game.

Let's now look at the percentage or runs and passes Garrett called each year. In '07, when Dallas ranked in the top five, it ran 44% of the time and passed 56%, a ratio in line with other top-ranked offenses. Last year, the blend was more extreme, a 42-58% run-pass mix.

That makes Garrett seem as if he's gone all Mouse Davis on us, but his play sheet didn't vary that much. Going from a 44 to a 42% run mix means he called an average of one fewer run per game, compared to the season before.

Let's now assume that Dallas will tweak its game plans to get closer to a 50/50 mix. For argument's sake, let us say that Dallas goes to a 48/52 run to pass ratio. (Those road kings, the Giants, were at nearly 50/50, in case you're wondering.)

Getting to 48% means Dallas calls four more runs than last year and three more than in '07. Consequently, that means four fewer passes. Again, assuming 60 plays a game, that means 29 running attempts a contest and 31 pass attempts.

The second question, is who gets those carries? How can they be distributed to maximize each runner's skills?

I'm going to begin with a second assumption that might not make some fans happy. I think 29 carries are too few to split three ways. I think Dallas is going to give heavy carries to its top power back -- Barber -- and to its speed back Jones. Choice will get on the field, but his total carries will be far fewer.

Look at New York's blueprint. They had the NFL's best ground game last year and averaged 29 rushes per contest, the number I'm assuming Dallas will call this year. Giants OC Kevin Gilbride distributed the touches thusly:

Brandon Jacobs -- 14 carries per game;
Derrick Ward -- 11 carries per game;
Ahmad Bradshaw -- 4 carries per game.

Bradshaw may have wanted more, but who can criticize the results? Jacobs and Ward both topped 1,000 yards.

I think Dallas will split the carries in a similar fashion, and I'm not using New York's benchmarks as my only guide. Let's look at Dallas' '07 distribution. Recall that Julius Jones started those games and that Barber took a bigger role as the games progressed, taking over completely in the 4th quarters:

Barber -- 13 carries and 2.6 receptions per game
Jones -- 10 carries and 1.5 receptions per game

As you can see, Marion and Julius carried the ball about the same amount that the Giants' guys did. And those numbers worked well for Barber. He averaged 4.8 yards a carry and made the Pro Bowl.

Last year, Barber carried a much, much heavier load. One reason may have been to justify his immense new contract. The more likely reason was the uncertainty over Jones' and Choice's readiness. Whatever the case, Barber went from 16 touches a game to 25 (20 carries and five receptions) touches last year, and his production suffered. Barber's yards per attempt dipped to 3.7, about what Julius averaged in his last year as a Cowboy.

I think Dallas will dial Marion's touches back to his '07 numbers, figuring a fresher player will be better able to finish games the way he did that year.

The team also needs to give Felix Jones a much bigger role. Last season he got half a dozen touches in his healthy month and a half. I'm going to predict he'll get Julius' '07 workload: the starts, and 10-11 carries per game. I'm also going to assume he'll get at least half of Dallas' running back receptions. Barber and Choice both averaged 5 catcher per game and both topped 8.0 yards per reception.

I can see Dallas keeping that five passes per game average to its backs. I can also see it rising to maybe six catches per game for the group. I see Jones getting at least two catches per season, maybe three. He caught only two passes last year, but he's the most dangerous receiving threat. Jones made linebackers look slow and stupid every day at Oxnard catching simple circles,delays and flares. Garrett ran screen passes to backs and tight ends very effectively last year, but never to Jones. There's no reason for Jones to finish with fewer than 32 to 35 receptions in this coming campaign.

I want him to catch even more. When I see Felix Jones, I see a younger, slightly bigger version of Tiki Barber. Like Jones, this Barber entered the league as a "change up back," who returned kicks and caught far more often than he ran the ball.

Starting in 2000, his OC Jim Fassell began to platoon Barber with power back Ron Dayne, with carry splits very similar to Julius' and Marion's from '07. Barber showed he could be the feature back and soon made Dayne the change-up: between 2000 and 2006, Barber averaged 1885 yards from scrimmage, 1359 on the ground and 526 through the air. He caught an average of 63 passes a season, roughly four a game.

Jones has Barber's game. He's fast and elusive. He can catch the ball. He's also bigger. Tiki played at 5'10", 205. Jones is 6'0" and weighed 200 or 205 lbs. last year, depending on your source. The Cowboys site, which is very accurate with player weights, now lists Felix at 212 lbs. He's used his rehab time wisely.

Felix averaged 8.9 yards a carry as a rookie. He's a touchdown threat every time he gets the ball. He was underused last season. He's that Tiki-like torch who can ignite the offense and offset some of T.O.'s lost production.

2009 should be Tiki Barber Time for Felix Jones.