SB Nation User Blog: Rafael Vela

Your Number For the Day

Rafael Vela — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:20:15 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

"The Push" would be a star in "the Toe's" era. (AP Photo/Amy Gutierrez)

64.3

That's Nick "the Push" Folk's success percentage on field goals this year. That number is frightening low in today's game, but I went back to put his "failure" in historical context.

Here are the five best seasons for Lou "the Toe" Groza, the most heralded kicker from the straight-ahead, kick-with-your-toe era:

Year	FG %
'53	88.5 %
'61	69.9%
'50	68.4%
'54	66.7%
'63	65.2%

If Nick Folk were kicking in the early '60s, he would be a star. Unfortunately for him, he kicks in 2009. After last night's gaffe, he probably wishes he could build that time machine in his garage and join The Toe.

Vincible! The Cowboys Excommunicate the Saints, 24-17

Rafael Vela — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 04:51:30 -0000

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

The Dallas defense smothered Pierre Thomas and his Saints mates. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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The Cowboys maintained all weeks that they believed in themselves. That they remained optimistic about their game against New Orleans and their season.

They showed the Cowboys fan base why,casting the Saints from their perfect cloud, 24-17 in the Superdome Saturday night. Dallas scored early, racing to a 14-0 lead after two possessions, while the defense stymied the nitroglycerin Saints office. The front held the 3- point-per-game Saints to three points through three quarters, then withstood two late Saints touchdown drives.

The team also overcame the bleeding ulcer that is its kicking game. Nick Folk missed a gimme, a 23 yarder from the middle of the field (three yards longer than an extra point) by clanging it off the right upright. The miss resembled the Saints-Redskins game, where Shaun Suisham missed a similar kick, letting the Saints rally and win in overtime.

The Cowboys rush prevented another comeback, as Anthony Spencer and Demarcus Ware flattened Drew Brees on the final two Saints snaps. Spencer stripped the ball from Brees, but New Orleans earned a brief reprieve when replays showed Brees arm was moving forward as Spencer hammered it.

Ware ended the drama on the following play when he blew past the Saints left tackle to force his second fumble of the game. He made a similar play to end the first half, helping Dallas gain a late 2nd quarter field goal for a 17-3 halftime lead. Jay Ratliff snatched up this ball with six seconds left, capping a powerful defensive performance which went 60 minutes, a welcome advance over incomplete earlier ones.

Notes:

-- Jason Garrett won the tendency game over Gregg Williams. Four early examples:

1. He hit New Orleans with an early bomb when they were playing with a single safety deep. Miles Austin abused rookie Malcolm Jenkins with a stop and go route, and Darren Sharper was way too slow to close on a well-thrown Romo pass.

2. Earlier in that drive, Dallas went to a Packers formation (an inverted diamond with two FBs and one I back. The Saints countered with a 3-3 front, expecting a pass. Dallas ran Felix Jones behind the two lead blockers for 11 yards.

3. Dallas was ready for a Saints corner blitz on its second TD drive. Austin ran a quick stop in front of the rotating Sharper and ran through an arm tackle for 26 yards.

4. The Cowboys had an answer for their short yardage bugaboos, running out of power I formation, where Jason Witten flexed into the tackle/guard gap and Marion Barber ran behind him and Deon Anderson for a touchdown and a later first down.

-- Anthony Spencer's hand usage continues to improve, and his sack totals are rising as a consequence. He sacked Brees on consecutive plays early in the 3rd to snuff out the Saints first attempt to counter the Cowboys 75 yard TD drive, which opened the 3rd quarter.

New Orleans had returned the kickoff 67 yards to the Dallas 36. On 3rd-and-10, Spencer blew past the Saints' left tackle and dropped Brees. The play was nullified by a penalty against Orlando Scandrick. Spencer simply sacked Brees on the next play, coming around the right end this time. The second sack kept the Saints out field goal range and led to a punt.

Spencer and Demarcus Ware both terrorized the Saints tackles, meaning the Cowboys could call fewer blitzes and keep extra players in coverage.

-- Dallas tried midget mini-wedges on kickoff returns tonight. Joe DeCamillis switched from using offensive linemen to using receivers, tight ends and fullbacks. Felix Jones had two long returns to the Saints 40.

-- Sean Payton will have to answer questions that he bailed on his running game this week. Reggie Bush ripped off a 29 yarder early, but the Cowboys held Pierre Thomas to 20 yards on six carries. The Saints ran ten times for 28 yards aside from Bush's big gainer.

-- I'm jumping Aaron's story to award a game ball to Wade Phillips. His defense held the Chargers to 20 points last week and held New Orleans 19 points under their season average. I wrote at the beginning of December that this team would go as far as the defense took it. They can go pretty far with more performances like tonight's.

-- Nick Folk raised his head early again. That's all I'll say or probably need to say about him.

-- In games like this you learn who your mates are. Who you want in your foxhole. I want Kevin Ogletree in mine. I want John Phillips in mine. Shoot, I'm making space for Bobby Carpenter, who played his heart out covering seam routes and crosses by the Saints' receivers.

On the other hand, we probably saw the beginning of the cycle. Ogletree gained more reps in the last three quarters. Miles Austin made money catches early and late. And Roy Williams played like a guy who is planning his Rose Bowl itinerary between snaps. He made two key drops, one which would have squeezed another two minutes out of the 4th quarter clock when the Cowboys were trying to maintain momentum. Kevin Ogletree's increases snaps should get Roy Willie's attention. If they don't, nothing will.

-- Another 100 rating game for the quarterback. Tony Romo posted a 104 tonight, following two 112s. He's playing moneyball this December and got a lot more company tonight.

-- The running balance is sliding towards 50/50. Marion Barber got 17 carries tonight and Felix Jones earned a career high 14. I would welcome continued increases in Jones' workload.

-- Victor Butler got the early down snaps at outside linebacker. He didn't embarrass himself.

-- Butler had lots of rookie company. John Phillips, Kevin Ogletree and David Buehler also contributed to the win. Buehler got some reps as a wedge blocker.

-- Who says Miles Austin isn't a big time receiver? His first catch went 49 yards for a touchdown. His last was a critical, winding 32 yard romp through the heart of New Orleans' secondary late in the 4th. He finished with 7 catches for 139 yards.

-- The Saints offense revved its engine, but does the team as a whole scare you? It has suspect pass blocking tackles and its defensive secondary is beatable.

-- Speaking of suspect tackle play, Flozell Adams continues his slow decline. Will Smith blew past him several times. Adams is willing to take flags to keep Tony Romo healthy, but he's not the same guy we saw dominate in '07. He no longer has the feet to take the corner away from good edge rushers. Dallas usually leaves him alone, but the coaches gave him lots of tight end and back help tonight.

-- The Cowboys kept their destiny in their hands and upset Christmas fans for Giants and Falcons fans alike. Thanks, Santa Wade.

Cowboys vs. Saints Preview: Knocking Off an Undefeated in Six Simple Steps

Rafael Vela — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 22:28:26 -0000

More photos » by Jose Yau - AP

The Cowboys would benefit from more plays like this tomorrow. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune Herald, Jose Yau)

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Simple to identify, difficult to execute:

1. Get the lead.

The Saints don't usually fly out of the box, the way the old 'Niners teams of the '90s used to do. (More on this in a second.) They've more like an old Saturn V rocket. They start slowly, but consistently build momentum every quarter, until they're outracing bullets by the 4th.

Several teams have built early leads on them. The Dolphins had a huge lead. The Panthers built a fair one. The Redskins kept them off balance for most of their game. The Cowboys will need to join them, which means the second quarter will be vital. The Cowboys, at least in the Garrett-era, make their offensive hay in the 2nd and 3rd. They'll have to join these other teams in wringing points out of the first 30 minutes.

2. Keep the foot on the accelerator

The Panthers ran their way into the lead, as did the Dolphins. They faltered in the second half because they lacked the firepower to keep scoring once the Saints sold out and slowed those rushing attacks down. If the Cowboys find the lead, either through the air or on the ground, they need to keep attacking. To me, this suggests a steady diet of Romo passing, with the expected draws and counters mixed in. Marion Barber isn't, or shouldn't be counted on to ice away the game with late running, if it comes to that. The Cowboys are a big play team, and score from the opponents 20 out much of the time.

When the Cowboys pass their own 40, the big play calls are coming; the wrinkle runs, the attacks over the middle, the combination routes up the sidelines. They'll likely start here and continue until the Saints 20. The imperative is to score touchdowns. Missing a field goal, as Shaun Suisham did for Washington two weeks ago, and as Nick Folk has done seemingly every week since the pre-season, sets up New Orleans for the quick-strike counter attack.

3. Don't Forget to Defend the Run

The Cowboys have been steady at containing running attacks since the Bucs ripped them to open the season. The Saints get leads, get you worried about their many passing threats, and then hammer you on the ground. They run more than just about any team and run effectively.

Pierre Thomas must be kept under some measure of contain. The Redskins and Falcons held New Orleans to two of their season lows in rushing the last two weeks and knocked the Saints scoring maching off rhythm. It may seem counter-intuitive, because Drew Brees passes so well, but putting the game on his shoulder, putting him in second and third and longs, would greatly increase Dallas' competitiveness.

4. Self scout yourself extra hard this week

Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams often builds his defenses from the back forwards. In Washington, he drafted Sean Taylor and Laron Landry to roam the deep middle. They gave him the flexibility to blitz more with his front seven, which had trouble sacking QBs with a four man rush.

When he came to the Saints, Williams inherited a team which also had a so-so rush, and a weak pass defense. The team invested heavily in the secondary, adding free agents Jabari Greer, an unsung YPA leader in his Buffalo days, and Darren Sharper, a smart, but aging FS who seemed to lose his top two gears in Minnesota.

They teamed with second year CB Tracy Porter to shore up the Saints pass defense. Gregg's guys have not made a huge step forward, but they are three points better per game this year than last. Add a seven point improvement from the offense and you can see why the Saints have rocketed from .500 to perfection.

Williams' fronts look vanilla till just before pre-snap; he gives a lot of base 4-3 looks, then makes a lot of late shifts. He's a streaky game caller, and when he's on, it looks to opposing teams that he's in the huddle. His philosophy is to take away your ten best plays and make you adapt. Sharper's production shows the effectiveness of this strategy; many observers thought his legs were gone in Minnesota, and he won't win many foot races these days, yet he has 8 picks, because he knows where to be.

For this reason, opponents need to understand what they do, because the Saints will. The challenge then is not to try to make yourself over, but to change your tendencies, so you can still do what you do best, but do it in slightly unpredictable ways. Have a pet play you like to run in the red zone? Run it, but run it outside the 20. Have a play you favor on 3rd downs? Run it on first instead this week.

That said, look for Jason Garrett to use an inside/out passing tactic which he used very effectively against Williams' defense in a 28-23 win at Texas Stadium. He started Terrell Owens out wide, then motioned him into the slot. T.O. was sent up the field on combination routes. Tony Romo would fake to him, then lob passes over the top of the secondary. The motion isolated Owens on the middle linebacker, who had deep responsibility in the cover-2 the Redskins played a lot, or put him on a safety. Owens ended the day with 173 yards and four scores.

I look for Dallas to try similar plays with Miles Austin. Garrett got him off to a hot start three games ago against the Raiders by motioning him across the middle. He may do this again, but take his routes farther up the field in this game. Sharper is smart, but he's not fast anymore. Saints MLB Jonathan Vilma is the most athletic of the Saints LB trio, but he nonetheless will have some trouble tracking receivers across his zone.

5. Ball custody, ball custody, ball custody

The Saints have turned leads into blowouts by racking up defensive turnovers. They have taken the ball away 37 times in 13 games, nearly three times per game. That's double the Cowboys' defense, for example.

Poor to average teams which have protected the ball have scared New Orleans. The one-win Rams only turned the ball over once, and therefore gained possession in the last two minutes with the score at 28-23. They couldn't find the end zone, but gave themselves the chance.

The Falcons' secondary bled yards, as they have all year, but their backup QB Chris Redmond only turned it over once. They too had the ball in the last minute with a chance to win the game.

The Cowboys have been pretty good at ball custody lately. Marion Barber made a costly turnover in New York, but Dallas actually won the turnover battle the last two weeks. Tony Romo has just three interceptions in his last nine starts.

Dallas will need another strong week from him. If the Cowboys keep their turnovers low, they'll have a fighting chance. If Romo gets pass crazy, as Tom Brady did last month, and makes early picks, as Brady did, the game could spiral away from the Cowboys quickly.

6. Relocate the Big Return

When the Cowboys went on their four game winning streak in October, Patrick Crayton made some huge punt returns. Lately, the Cowboys' return game has gone missing. San Diego twice downed punts inside the Dallas two last week.

The kickoff return game has struggled all year, though Felix Jones returned the opening kickoff past the Dallas 40. Another big return or two would greatly help the cause.

Overall

The Cowboys defense was able to hang on last week against San Diego. Philip Rivers made his share of plays, but he's done that to everybody all season. Dallas held him to a season low 20 points. The D will need a similar effort this week. They need to set their cap around 23 or 24 points, hope they match the game Atlanta sprung last week, and then get the offense to get near 30.

Can it be done? Yes. Three teams at the bottom of the standings, the Rams and Redskins, have given New Orleans two of its toughest games this year. The Falcons had their chances in both close losses and the Dolphins fizzled once the game fell to their passing game, which served up three crippling interceptions. The Saints have their weaknesses, and Dallas has weapons to exploit them.

On the other hand, the Cowboys' middle pass defense is soft. The Chargers and other recent opponents are gaining big yards throwing at Keith Brooking, Bradie James and the Dallas safeties. San Diego bled the clock dry in the 4th running Malcolm Floyd, Vincent Jackson and its backs across James' zones. New Orleans has weapons to do the same.

The result will likely come down to whether Dallas loses the big play races, as it did in New York and against the Chargers, or whether it edges ahead, as it has in its wins.

Cowboys Notes: Thinking Out Loud Tuesday

Rafael Vela — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:52:41 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

Miles Austin continues to play like a number one. (AP Photo/Erich Schlegel)

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Some assorted notes and conversation starters for this short week:

Got to be Good Coaching Cause He's So Hard to See

I'm surprised that in the inevitable December, Wade-on-a-hot-seat churn that nobody has recalled that the Colts Jim Caldwell, he of the 13-0 start, was one of Jerry's interviewees back in the spring of 2007. Caldwell was the last of ten candidates that Jerry spoke to, and at the time, it seemed a formality (and part of satisfying the Rooney Rule).

Not so fast. I understand that organizations go "wide" in their searches for two reasons. First, front offices want to build dossiers on as many up-and-coming assistants as possible. Second, smart teams can use the opportunity to pick hot coordinators' brains, to add to their organization's strategic data-base. These are the guys making the offensive and defensive innovations, and your team can glean lots of off-season information for the price of a few plane tickets and hotel reservations.

I'm not implying that Caldwell should have been Dallas' choice. He was probably the least known of the ten, a list that included Mike Singletary and the Chargers DC Ron Rivera. I do think that Caldwell's, and Rivera's inclusion on that search bodes well for the next one. One of these days, sooner or later, Jerry and Stephen will be on the market again. And while some of the Cowboys Nation will scream for another big name, a Shanahan, or Cowher, or Gruden, the smarter choice, in my opinion, will be a smart, hungry, lesser known. Oh, sure, he will have to deal with the automatic he's-Jerry's-new-puppet meme, but so what? Let the idiots have their say.

The two most impressive hires in recent years, in my opinion, have been Mike Tomlin and Caldwell. Both had to follow entrenched winners; Bill Cowher in Tomlin's case, and Tony Dungy in Caldwell's. Both have been able to match and surpass their predecessors, and at rapid speed.

When the Cowboys do put out the "help wanted" sign, these are the types of coaches the team should pursue. They already have a pretty good list of these guys, based on the last search.

Good Coaches are Made, Not Anointed, or Simply Appointed

In the two minute offense you want to score points. Four minute offense, you want to use the clock and control the ball. This was brought home in 1972 when I was with the Cincinnati Bengals. With four minutes left in the game, we had an 11 point lead and had the ball. We lost the game.

-- Bill Walsh

Walsh told this anecdote in a speech on game management. What's not included is that he was the offensive coordinator in that '72 game, and cost his Bengals a win by calling passes which stopped the clock, when running six times would have burned enough time to deny the opponent a chance for the comeback.

I think we can safely say that Walsh learned from the experience.

I bring this up because Jason Garrett will likely be a candidate in that next search, unless Wade finds a way to stick and Garrett leaves. That fact no doubt leaves another sector of the fan base unimpressed, but I've seen this story before.

Sean Payton was given the play calling sheet in New York when Jim Fassell went stale, then lost it the next year when the Giants offense struggled. Fassell called them to a Super Bowl and Payton was allowed to join Bill Parcells in Dallas, to install the passing game. Payton had his growing pains here, but nobody is questioning his offensive acumen today.

I remember Oxnard in '06 when Parcells was breaking in Payton's successors. One morning he turned to the sideline, where Todd Haley and Tony Sparano were puzzling over the play sheet and screamed, "come on, make a call!" Haley took a beating that year from his top receiver, some fellow named T.O., but the lessons took hold. Haley had an impressive '08 season in Arizona, capped when he simultaneously yelled down a petulant Anquan Boldin on the sidelines while calling the game-winning touchdown drive against the Eagles. He's now running the Chiefs' show.

O.C's have learning curves, just like players. Garrett has had a few questionable games, but I do think he has a good understanding of his players' strengths and weaknesses. Will Dallas develop him for another team, as it did with Payton and Haley, or will it hang on to the latest young OC to cut his play-calling teeth on the Cowboys' sideline? It won't be an easy choice.

Finding Their Place

One matter which I believe Garrett has sorted out the last three weeks is his passing totem. Since the back-to-back 7 point games against Green Bay and Washington, the roles Miles Austin, Roy Williams and Jason Witten play have become more sharply defined.

Austin has been clearly elevated to the top passing priority and has 21 catches for 282 yards in that stretch. Witten has been even better, catching 26 balls for 350 yards. Williams role has been downgraded, in terms of attempts, but he nonetheless has found an important niche. He's averaging about 50-60 yards a game and is a primary red zone weapon for a Cowboys offense which has to rely on passing for its red zone touchdowns.

Teams have doubled Witten in the red zone for years, because he's been a prime target for Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo. Recently, we've seen a red-zone division of labor emerge from the wideouts: Austin is given quick screens and crosses underneath, where his speed and tackle-breaking strength are put to best use, while Williams works the back halves of end zones on posts and fades. Together, they have five red zone TDs in those three games.

At this point, 13 games into the season, I think we can officially declare the Miles Austin experiment a success. A big success. He has nine starts and has this line for those games:

53 catches, 5.8 recs./game, 918 yards, 102 yds./game, 9 TDs, 1 TD/game.

That's better production on a per-game basis than T.O.'s monster '07 season. Williams, meanwhile, seems to be in that 4 catches for 60 yards mode. That's fine with me.

Dallas last had a trio of receiving threats in '06, when Owens had just over 1100 yards, Glenn just over 1000 and Witten close to 800 receiving yards.

What we're seeing now is a prime target in Austin, who looks like a 1400-1500 yard receiver over a full 16 games, a complement in Williams who at recent pace would get 1000 yards and a tight end who is an automatic 70-90 catches for 800 to 1000 yards.

And this production should continue. Austin is 25. Williams is 27. Glenn and Owens, in that '06 campaign, were 32 and 33 respectively. Glenn broke down the next season. Owens goes on, but at 36 no longer is posting those '07 caliber numbers.

The passing game has been rebuilt. The backfield has received heavy investment in recent years. It seems clear that the line needs upgrading to get this offense up to the elite level.

Stood Up: The Cowboys O-Line Can't Finesse the Team into the Win Column

Rafael Vela — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 06:08:58 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

(AP Photo/Amy Gutierrez)

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Okay Cowboys fans.

You got what you've been asking for. A heavy dose of running. The final tally was 26 rushes to 30 passes, but in the first three quarters, when the game was tied, the mix was 25 rushes to 18 passes, a '90s-like 58% run to 42% pass ratio.

This was what so many Cowboys pundits predicted in the preseason. a blend to keep all the backs happy. To take the pressure off Tony Romo, blah, blah, blah.

I told you back in September, this line isn't up to Emmit-ball:

Notice how weak the '08 Cowboys were at the typical "muscle" plays, the type you see in short yardage and goal line. The type the '90s Cowboys lines could execute after a five pints of whiskey and a group afternoon nap.

The character of the current line is very different. It performs better when it blocks on the move, which explains why Jason Garrett called so many runs from shotgun and spread packages. People complained about seeing the shotgun inside the five last year, but the numbers explain why.

-- Cowboys Tape Review: This is Not Your Father's Offensive Line, BTB, Sept. 30, 2009

The Cowboys romped up and down the field yesterday, between the tens. They ran effectively against the weak Chargers front using the same plays they've favored all year: the power counter, the lead draw and the toss. I counted one Felix Jones isolation early in that star-crossed 2nd quarter drive, which stopped inside the Chargers one. The rest of the time, the line played in character.

As you saw, lead draws don't work against a goal-line defense. Counter plays can be run down from the backside. The Chargers did this to Marion Barber on Dallas' first drive, holding the Cowboys to a field goal.

When it counted, when the Cowboys were at 2nd, 3rd and 4th and goal at the Chargers one, the Cowboys line could not run the power play, the dive, the isolation, which distinguished those great '90s lines. Here are the rushing TDs versus passing TD numbers for the '90s teams, the six playoff teams under Johnson and Switzer and the two Chan Gailey teams, which featured several holdovers from those early lines:

Year	Rush TDs	Pass TDs
'91	15	16
'92	20	23
'93	20	18
'94	26	18
'95	29	18
'96	14	12
'98	21	17
'99	16	20

Dallas ran for 161 touchdowns and passed for 142 touchdowns in its eight playoff years. Now, look at the skews in the Parcells' and Phillips' winning years:

Year	Rush TDs	Pass TDs
'03	11	17
'05	13	23
'06	21	26
'07	14	36
'08	12	29
'09	10	22

Granted, today's game skews much more to the pass and the passing TD. The Cowboys' numbers nevertheless skew too heavily towards the TD pass. When the Cowboys enter the red zone, it has fallen on Tony Romo to get them six points. In Romo's three years as a starter, only 29% of Dallas' touchdowns have come on the ground. All five of Dallas' touchdowns this month have come through the air.

The ballyhooed "three headed monster" (I hate that term) has only nine rushing touchdowns this year. Yesterday, you saw why. Their line is not a power line, and as it's comprised, it never will be. Flozell Adams is 34. Kyle Kosier, Andre Gurode and Leonard Davis are all 31. There is no magic reservoir of untapped run blocking mojo a new coach or the current coaches can tap. These guys are what they are.

And what they are right now is just good enough to break your heart.

Yes, the defense lost some snap in the fourth quarter, but the 20 points they allowed was San Diego's season low. What they never got, and what they should have had in the fourth quarter, was a lead to protect. But the o-line and Nick Folk combined to deny the Cowboys that key, late-second quarter score which would have raised confidence and of course, tightened the scoreboard.

Let's be clear: you can scream all you want for more Tashard, more overall runs, more this, more that, but as long as we're dealing with the current offensive line, the offense will only go as far as Tony Romo's arm will take it.

The backs will have to hope that Robert Brewster can join them on the field next year and that Tom Ciskowski can draft a couple more road graders to join him. The '00s have been a lost decade for the Cowboys offensive line. It's time for fresher and better straight-ahead-blocking blood.

Notes:

-- Romo this December: 60 of 85, 71% completions, 5 touchdown passes, 0 picks, and a 112 passer rating. He has just three picks in his last nine games. The Cowboys are losing this month, but he's the least of the team's worries right now.

-- I think it's time for Nick Folk to visit the asthma field. His miss violated one of the fundamentals of kicking 101. Watch your DVR: Folk lifted his head immediately after striking the ball, while still on his follow through.

-- The Chargers pass offense played at a faster speed than any opponent I've seen this year. How many times did a Cowboys rusher get within an arm's length of Philip Rivers, only to see him release the ball -- and release it accurately -- before he could be sacked?

-- The special teams continue to run hot and cold. Felix Jones' opening return went past the 40 but the Cowboys struggled on every other return. They also had to watch the Chargers' punt coverage group down two punts inside the Dallas three.

-- Count your blessings, Cowboys fans. I'm sure Demarcus Ware is counting his. The Lions G Mike Utley was paralyzed from the chest down in 1991 on a play similar to the one that ended Ware's afternoon. He, like Ware, flashed a thumbs up sign as he was leaving the field. It's great to hear Demarcus has already been released from the hospital.

The Battle of the Tight Ends: Cowboys vs. Chargers Preview

Rafael Vela — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:57:26 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

Jason Witten has been unstoppable lately. He faces a vulnerable safety duo this week. (AP Photo/Erich Schlegel)

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The Chargers and Cowboys both lead their respective divisions, but neither has time to relax. San Diego has a chance to secure the second seed in the AFC. If they slip, they could fall back to the Broncos, who lie just one game behind them in the standings.

The Cowboys want to reclaim the 3rd NFC seed they lost to the Cardinals last week and also maintain their tie-breaker edge over the Eagles, who match Dallas' 8-4 record. The teams will take somewhat different approaches. The Cowboys will play the inside game, attacking the spine of San Diego's defense. The Chargers, on the other hand, will again rely on their superb passing attack to probe the Cowboys' secondary.

When San Diego Has the Ball

The Chargers line has been dinged up all year. They miss C Nick Hardwick. Their once-feared running attack has fallen down a notch; both LaDainian Tomlinson and speed back Darren Sproles average 3.3 yards per carry. Yet, the Chargers have yet to score less than 21 points this year. They've averaged 34 points the last month.

Norv Turner has ridden quarterback Philip Rivers, who is having his typical year; lots of touchdowns, few turnovers. He has a trio of tall receivers and a speed tight end in Antonio Gates, who is back in prime form this season after some injury woes the past two years.

The Chargers' offensive scheme will remind you of Turner's packages at Dallas in the '90s. He's not big on formation juggling. He uses a base two back, two receiver set, and will switch out to three receivers when the situation calls for it.

He still runs quite a bit more than the percentages suggest, at 46%, but the Chargers make their living through the air. When they run, you'll see the same base package Dallas still uses: stretch plays, lead draws, bend counters, "power" counters and straight up isolation runs. Tomlinson remains the feature back, fulfilling the Marion Barber role in their attack; his 168 carries are just more than double those Sproles gets, though Sproles is more of the 3rd down, option. He'll get big plays off draws, but he only gets around 6 carries per game, roughly on par with Felix Jones.

Sproles' real value comes as a receiver. He runs delays and a lot of screens when the Chargers catch teams blitzing. He averages almost 12 yards per catch, a huge number for a back. He gets about 4 passes per game, so the Cowboys linebackers, still smarting from the 74 yard tattoo they got from Brandon Jacobs last week, will have to locate Sproles whenever he's on the field.

When Philip Rivers does throw, he looks primarily for two targets: Gates and Vincent Jackson. Gates' 14.8 yards per catch are a career best, in a season where he's a primary starter. He'll likely draw Gerald Sensabaugh, who has been very good at covering flexed running backs and tight ends this year. Gates is another class of player, however, and Sensabaugh and FS Alan Ball will have to tackle smartly.

Wade Phillips has been a lot more blitz happy mid-season, but I have the suspicion he'll dust off the type of game plans we saw earlier this year, where he rushed four most of the time and played a lot more zone. His secondary misses Ken Hamlin and he wants to avoid putting his inside linebackers, Bradie James and Keith Brooking, one-on-one with Tomlinson or Sproles in space. Coverage is not their strong suit.

The Giants used a similar game plan five weeks ago and held the Chargers to a season-low 21 points. They kept the Chargers runners under control. They let Gates and Jackson get some yards but avoided the big pass plays that Rivers can generate when he's blitzed and his group of giraffes can out jump and out muscle opposing secondaries.

When the Cowboys Have the Ball

Chargers DC Ron Rivera played under Buddy Ryan in Chicago (he was Mike Singletary's backup on the '85 Bears) and he coaches under Jim Johnson at Philadelphia. He has been a steady captain of the Chargers D since taking over for Ted Cottrell, after he was fired mid-way through the '08 campaign.

Rivera's pedigree suggests that he'll blitz you to death, but he has actually been rather restrained in his approach. He plays a lot of basic fronts, rushes four most of the time, and plays contain behind them. He will blitz, and uses a wide variety of packages. He relies more on the element of surprise, however, thinking he'll get the most out of a limited number of overloads.

Rivera has had to play with a reduced roster. Injuries have wiped out his defensive line this year. He lost NT Jamaal Williams early and has made do with a rotation of Ian Scott and Ogembi Nwagbuo. They're both a lit on the light side; neither tops 305 pounds. The Chargers inside backers are also a bit light. Former Cowboy Kevin Burnett lists at 240 lbs. but his weight in Dallas was in the 228 range. Draw your own conclusions.

The Chargers are also dinged up at safety. Starter Eric Weddle will miss the game with a knee injury, meaning backup Steve Gregory will start at the strong.

The Chargers look a bit suspect up the middle, and we'll therefore see a game plan similar to the one Dallas employed against the Giants. The Cowboys started off with power counters and lead draws, their two best running plays. The Cowboys threw more because the Giants were regularly putting eight men in the box and blitzing their strong safeties on first down.

I think Dallas will stick with what it does best, and will likely run them more, as the Chargers are not a heavy run blitz team. Success in the lead draw will open the middle for play action, and Jason Garrett certainly wants the Chargers safeties guessing run and pass.

San Diego has had trouble with big tight ends before Weddle went down, and his loss could make this problem more acute. Heath Miller, Tony Scheffler, Brent Celek and the Browns Evan Moore had strong days against Rivera's interior secondary.

This week, they'll face Jason Witten. The bionic tight end has ignored a sprained foot the last two games to rack up 19 catches for 263 yards. The Cowboys played some Turner ball last week: they used far fewer three receiver sets than normal. When they wanted to spead the field, they would leave Martellus Bennett at the traditional tight end spot and flex Witten into the slot. When the game was over, Miles Austin, Roy Williams and Witten had 30 snags between them.

Bennett is injured, but I still think we'll see lots of the Cowboys 12 set, with one back and two tight ends. Dallas has big targets too, as Austin, Williams and Witten are all 6'2" or taller. We should see John Phillips, a strong blocker, take Bennett's place on the line, with Witten being moved wide, into the slot and even into the backfield when Dallas is in the shotgun. Garrett likes to send Witten on patterns from there because he's assured a free release upfield.

When Dallas threw to its wideouts last week, it worked the deep and intermediate middle heavily with posts and crosses. Late in the game, when the Giants were pressing and trying to jam the receivers to slow their patterns over the middle, they began running double moves where they faked skinny posts and released upfield.

I see no reason to deviate much from this approach. It will be important to make the early runs more effective, and if they succeed, Witten and his buddies will again go after the Chargers' defensive spine.

Special Teams

Joe DeCamillis' guys had their season stinker, giving up the decisive punt return touchdown to Domenik Hixon halfway through the fourth. They again struggled to provide a quality kickoff return game and took an annoying number of penalties.

This week, they have to contain Sproles, who returns both kickoffs and punts.

Overall

Don't pay too much attention to the Romo-as-holder story line. This game will likely turn on red zone play. San Diego has been very effective at scoring sevens when it gets deep into enemy territory and denying the seven on defense. Look at its win over Philadelphia. The Eagles badly outgained the Chargers but kicked field goals on their first three scoring drives, while the Chargers marched in for three touchdowns. The Eagles never recovered the lost fours.

The Giants also out-gained the Chargers last month, holding San Diego to a season-low 226 yards. New York was undone when it settled for three late in the 4th, after getting inside the Chargers' five yard line. The kick put the lead at 20-14, giving Rivers the opening to drive the field for the game winner in the waning seconds.

The Cowboys have been very good at incorporating Roy Williams into their red zone attack lately. He has three red zone receptions the last two games and Jason Garrett seems to have found a lethal role for him in that part of the field. Garrett will need to have some new wrinkles that will get Dallas into the end zone. The Cowboys should move the ball Sunday, but will be as long-faced as Philly and New York if they don't finish off their drives. The Chargers have been contained on occasion, but they're too precise an offense to be shut down.

December is a Rorschach Test for Cowboys Fans

Rafael Vela — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:26:02 -0000

What does this look like to you:

Is it:

A. a sign of a team in 1st place?
B. A wolf wearing Patrick Crayton's number?
C. a black hole consuming the Dallas Cowboys?
D. A beef and cheese burrito?
E. something else?

From what I see on site, and hear in the Metroplex, the answer depends on your state of mind. And a lot of people are in a dead panic. Situational backups are being offered as sacrifices to the football gods. Coaches and QBs on other teams are openly coveted.

All because Dallas has lost one game in New York, in December. Funny, but I recall Tom Landry losing in the Meadowlands in December to some awful Giants teams. (Joe Danelo anyone?) Jimmy Johnson's guys lost at the Meadowlands in late '91, when all the penalties went New York's way. He lost at RFK in December '92 when Emmitt Smith tried throwing a pass out of his own end zone in the final two minutes and fumbled the game away.

Barry's guys went 2-2 in December '94, one of them a loss at the Meadowlands. His guys went 2-2 the following season, with the second loss the infamous "4th and 1" game at the thankfully-demolished Veterans' Stadium. His '96 team had their season put on temporary life-support by a 20-6 late-season loss in New York.

Chan Gailey's two playoff teams were 2-2 and 2-3 in December. Bill Parcells '03 playoff team was 2-2 in December.

Tom Landry's December record his last nine years as head coach ('79-'87) a period which saw six playoff teams and three NFC Championship Game appearances, was a lukewarm 16-15. That's right, 16-15. I don't recall any talk of December meltdowns back then, or cries for Tom to rush into retirement.

Every Cowboys coach has seen good teams, ones that won Super Bowls and went to NFC Championships, lose games in December. But I see some fans falling for the myth of a "December curse." Former Cowboys CB and current post-game radio show host Larry Brown gets my Kneejerker of the Week award for his amazing Sunday screed, where he said Wade Phillips should be fired at the end of the season, no matter what happens the rest of the way, because the team lost the Giants game. Ponder that: even if Dallas gets back on course and perhaps wins a playoff game or two, Wade should be instantly terminated because he lost to New York on December 6th!

Proof that announcers probably need the same 10 minute cooling down period after the final gun that the players and coaches receive.

The team has lost one game. It has lost four this season. It has responded to the other three with wins or winning streaks. The reasons for each loss have been different. The Denver loss was not the same as the Packers loss, and neither bore much resemblance to this one. There is no recurring breakdown which suggests a glaring personnel problem the team cannot overcome, though a Flozell Adams suspension would throw the offensive line into chaos this week.

There's a poll sitting in the right hand column of this site. It asks what people think the Cowboys' record would be over the final five games. Only 5% said 5-0. The overwhelming majority , nearly 50%, said 3-2. Well, they've lost one of the two games YOU PREDICTED. So why the instability?

Don't be spooked by press-fed ghosts, especially those which lack all context. If the team loses to San Diego, and looks awful in the process, okay, go nuts. In the meantime, remember where the Cowboys sit in the standings, because some of you are scaring me far more than any shortcomings I see on the roster.

Run Aground: The Giants Beat the Cowboys With Big Plays, 31-24

Rafael Vela — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 03:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Jason Witten had pretty stats. The Giants got the pretty win. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Tony Romo started December '09 with a 112 QB rating game. He completed 75% of his passes for almost 400 yards. He made one dubious throw, and was bailed out by Jason Witten, who played volleyball over Giants CB Bruce Johnson for a big first half gain. His offense was 9 of 17 on 3rd down. They ran 31 more snaps than New York's offense.

Roy Williams quietly had his best game as a Cowboy, catching two touchdown passes and making big receptions over the middle. Jason Witten piled up his career high in yards, with156 on fourteen catches.

Yet, the Cowboys again began December with a loss, because the defense, which has carried the team thus far, giving up yards, but not points, gave up both by the bucket full Sunday evening. I warned last Sunday:

When you see the "Perils of December" stories, and some are already around, know that the quarterback may get the attention, but it's the defense which will either navigate the rocky waters at last, or wreck the Cowboys ship again.

-- Wade's Defense Will Guide the Cowboys December Ship, BTB, Nov. 29th

Wade's guys ran the ship onto a sandbar off the New Jersey coast. They showed the maddening '08 tendency to surrender points immediately after Dallas scores. They did so twice, each time with depressing speed. Dallas had dominated the first 27 minutes of play, and had taken a 10-0 lead after Williams caught a fade in the far right corner of the Meadowland's left end zone with 3:14 to play in the second quarter.

Eli Manning and his offense snatched one back in just four plays, going 74 yards in 1:28. Manning made two key throws, the first a dumpoff to Kevin Boss, while Bobby Carpenter was trying to wrestle the QB to the turf. Boss' sixteen yard romp moved New York past midfield for the first time. Two plays later, Manning zipped a pass past Terence Newman up the right sideline. Hakeem Nicks sidestepped the gambling Newman for the Giaints first score.

The second rapid collapse came late in the 3rd. Dallas had driven 58 yards in methodical fashion to take a 17-14 lead, but the defense gave it all back in one play. The Giants deployed in a two tight end set that had Kevin Boss tight left and their backup flexed wide left, where he drew Gerald Sensabaugh into space. The two receivers were split right.

New York sent Jacobs on a quick out to the left flat. He got behind Anthony Spencer and raced up the left sideline. Gerald Sensabaugh had a chance to bump Jacobs out of bounds at the Dallas 30, but went low on the runner, who hopped over him, and continued up the sideline for a score.

Nineteen seconds after Dallas had taken a lead, it trailed again.

The defense had company in the big negative play department. Marion Barber provided the lone Dallas turnover and it proved to be devastating. The Cowboys were moving to answer New York's first touchdown with a late scoring drive of their own. Felix Jones had returned the kickoff to his 35 and a Barber draw had given Dallas 2nd and one on its own 44 with 1:18 left.

Barber released a blitzing linebacker on the next play and caught a screen to Tony Romo's right. He motored past midfield but fumbled the ball. Osi Umenyiora picked up the ball and ran it to the Cowboys 28. As the had in September, the Giants moved 28 yards for a key score just before the half. Two Manning passes to Steve Smith moved the Giants to one, where Jacobs scored with just 19 seconds left in the half.

Dallas' special teams added to the misery, surrendering a 79 yard punt return just over five minutes into the final quarter. Mat McBriar punted 59 yards to Domenik Hixon, who floated to his left, then cutback sharply to his right, escaped Pat Watkins and a couple other Cowboys, then picked up a wall of blockers up the right sideline. His score pushed New York's lead to 31-17.

For the day, New York's four touchdown jolts took 1 minute and 28 seconds, 45 seconds, 19 seconds and 15 seconds off the clock, respectively.

That's no way to treat your offense.

Notes

-- How do we define Nick Folk? Critical? Mental? His yips are no longer a distraction. They are an official impediment to the season. Folk wasted an early 4th quarter drive, which included a dandy 3rd-and-14 conversion by Romo to Roy Williams, when he hooked a 42 yard attempt. Folk's head is not right, and his miss, which would have closed New York's lead to 21-20, messes with every Cowboys fan's brain.

-- Sophomore slumps: Martellus Bennett makes plays here and there. He had a big 18 yard gain off a Romo scramble in the 3rd quarter. His tendency to drop one easy one a game is starting to grate. Bennett scuttled the promising opening drive, which had marched 50 yards from the Dallas 18 to the New York 38, when he dropped a 3rd down Romo dart aimed right at his face.

Orlando Scandrick also needs to shake off the second year funk. He may have been running 1B to Mike Jenkins 1A in camp, but there's no comparison between them now. Jenkins had several breakups and picked off Eli Manning in the end zone early in the 3rd, when the Giants were threatening to expand their 14-10 lead.

Scandrick, on the other hand, had another miserable day on Steve Smith's rack. Scandrick excelled in the slot last season but has been a liability much of the time this year. He's got a ways to go to reach Terence Newman's standard in the slot. He's got a ways to go to approach Kenny Gant class.

-- Another breakout for the bookend: Anthony Spencer had a strong game and continues to make late season strides. He pressured Manning out of the pocket on several plays and forced at least three incompletions with his pressure. Teams are doubling Demarcus Ware and Spencer is making them pay a higher price every week. Dallas needs him to continue his push.

-- We saw today what the passing game is capable of, with decent protection: the starting wideouts and tight end snagged 30 balls for 320 yards.

-- The line, on the other hand, could not break lanes in a front which run blitzed heavily on early downs. Marion Barber's 8-yard run was Dallas' best of the day. This was an inversion of the first game, so Dallas went up top and found its yards in the middle of the field, against the Giants linebackers and safeties.

-- The defensive and special teams breakdowns overshadowed one of Dallas' most creative touchdowns. On a 2nd and goal in the 3rd, with Dallas at the Giants' five, trailing 14-10, Dallas lined up in a two tight end, two wideout set with Marion Barber in the backfield. Roy Williams was alone left, Jason Witten at tight end right, Martellus Bennett flexed into the right slot and Miles Austin split right.

Before the snap, Austin motioned into the backfield and lined up as an I-back behind Barber, who was just five yards behind Romo, in the fullback spot. At the snap Romo first faked a dive right to Barber, then faked a pitch left to Austin. The second fake yoked both Giants linebackers towards Austin and held the corner on that side. This allowed Williams to release into the middle of the end zone. Romo's superb fakes produced a wide throwing lane and he tossed to Williams for an easy score.

-- Hurry back, Ken Hamlin. Gerald Sensabaugh had to overcome a hold on Brandon Jacobs' touchdown reception, but neither he nor Alan Ball tackled well. Both were invisible on a series of short crosses by Steve Smith which converted 3rd-and-long situations.

Cowboys fans know that poor safety play hamstrung the defense in '06 and '08. This is no time for the problem to recur.

Cowboys vs. Giants Preview, Part Two: Gauging the Austin Effect

Rafael Vela — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:31:25 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

New York's weak interior pass defense looks inviting to Jason Witten. (AP Photo/Erich Schlegel)

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When Dallas Has the Ball

The Giants spent heavily in the offseason to beef up their front seven, in response to their December '08 defensive breakdown. Teams ran very effectively on New York then, so the Giants jumped into free agency with a vengeance, signing DT Rocky Bernard from Seattle and DT Chris Canty from Dallas. They added Michael Boley fro Atlanta to add some athleticism to their linebacking corps.

The thinking was to bolster a line which already rushed pretty well, and give more speed to the back seven. The plan appeared to be working well early in the season. New DC Bill Sheridan did not blitz as much as his predecessor Steve Spagnuolo, working instead to strangle opposing passing attacks.

The approach certainly worked in week two. Sheridan saw how Tony Romo and his receivers had ripped up Tampa Bay's depleted secondary and game-planned to take away Romo's big plays. Sheridan didn't play Tampa Two, with two deep safeties, as other teams had done to Romo, but the general concepts were the same. New York kept S Kenny Phillips deep on nearly all downs; Phillips often started downs 15 to 25 yards behind the line.

Sheridan reasoned that Romo would not remain disciplined and would force passes into coverage. The Giants rolled up their coverages towards the Dallas wideouts Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton and dared Romo to play small ball. They picked him short, when nickel corner Bruce Johnson returned an overthrown Romo pass for six, and they picked Romo long, when he tried forcing a bomb to Sam Hurd at a critical point in the 3rd quarter, when Dallas was trying to build on a four point lead.

They also got some luck, when Jason Witten inadvertently back-heeled a ball into Kenny Phillips' hands. The pick gave the Giants a very short field which they navigated for a touchdown just before the half. When the game was over, Romo had a meager 127 passing yards and three turnovers.

The Giants smothered every passing attack they faced in their first five games; opposing QBs averaged just 105 yards per game through the air. Then, they were found out, with emphasis. Drew Brees bombed them in New Orleans, Donovan McNabb bombed them two games later, and Philip Rivers took his guys the length of the field in the last two minutes, capping a three TD pass day with an 18 yard game winner to Vincent Jackson in the final 20 seconds.

I pointed out yesterday that the current Giants offense resembles the '08 Cowboys in its injury pattern. This year's Giants defense reminds of the '06 Cowboys D, which collapsed when its safety corps wore away. New York's problems started immediately after the Cowboys win, when Phillips was diagnosed with arthritis in a knee. He has been inactive since and his injury claimed the one New York safety with range and ball sense:

Games 1-5 : 4 TD passes allowed
Games 6-11: 14 TD passes allowed

The Giants do have talent on the edges. Corey Webster is a blue-chipper and fellow wideout Terrell Thomas has been solid. Opponents have been able to ignore them, spreading the field and working the intermediate and deep middle. The problems have been compounded by MLB Antonio Pierce's injury, which landed him on I.R. this week. He called the Giants defensive signals.

New York's defense looks lost at the moment. Last week the Broncos repeatedly broke down New York's coverage with bunch packages. They would clot three receiving targets on one side of their line and hit the man who inevitably came open when the trio scattered. The Giants safeties did not know who to cover. Kyle Orton threw an easy touchdown to Brandon Stokely out of this package in the third quarter, where nobody bothered to cover the Broncos slot man.

Look for a game plan very similar to the one Dallas ran against Oakland, at least when the Cowboys pass. Jason Garrett opened by moving Miles Austin around, motioning him into the slot or starting him there. Austin ran a number of deep posts and short and medium crossing routes, to get matchups with the Raiders safeties and linebackers. When Austin got single coverage outside, he simply ran posts or combination routes which let him use his speed to run away from Nnamdi Asomugha.

I expect we'll see Austin test the New York middle in similar ways. He's the Cowboys receiving ace now and the Giants saw very little of him in September. I expect to see him moved inside again and matched against Thomas when he stays wide.

Also look for Dallas to feature more bunch packages than before. Bunch sets are a regular part of the Dallas passing game, but are used to varying degrees week-to-week. You might see Dallas use this set four of five times a game, but Garrett can make it a focal point of a game plan if he feels it can hurt a defense. Dallas was bunch heavy in last year's season opener against Cleveland, for instance, and got Jason Witten free a lot on deep seams off the scatter.

Look for a more controlled game from Romo. He had three picks against New York but has had just four in his last nine starts, with no more than one in a single game. He seems to have learned that he doesn't have to force the deep ball to move the team.

Romo also has the option of handing the ball off repeatedly. New York threw roadblocks in front of Romo's receivers the first time around, but they left open lanes up the middle for the Dallas runners. Marion Barber ran for 124 yards and Felix Jones added 96 more on just seven carries as Dallas romped for a season high 251 yards.

The running game veered off course in the Philadelphia and Packers games, but has come back strong; Dallas has 347 rushing yards the last two weeks. This coincides with Felix Jones' return to health. He has again given Dallas the big play ground option they lacked when he was rehabbing a knee injury. Dallas had great success with variations of its staple the lead draw, as the Giants linemen were more concerned with getting to Romo. There's no reason to think this and Dallas other staple the power-counter won't be called a lot Sunday.

Special Teams

A divisional rematch in a windy stadium could make field goals more important than they usually are. That's sobering news for Dallas fans who have watched Nick Folk struggle with intermediate-range field goals since the preseason. Hope the game does not hinge on his foot. On the other hand, Folk has been Mr. Clutch his first two years. Maybe a last-second challenge is what he needs to focus his mind. Let's all hope so.

This is a divisional game. Dallas first tour of the East produced a two point loss, a four point win and a one point win. I see little reason to expect a blowout. It's December in New Jersey, which will likely mean poor conditions. The Giants are desperate and they're playing their last game against the Cowboys in Giants Stadium.

Stock up on the maalox and spirits, folks.

Cowboys vs. Giants Preview: Can the Cowboys Beat Up Their Old Selves?

Rafael Vela — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:45:35 -0000

More photos » by Sharon Ellman - AP

The Cowboys want Eli Manning moving outside of his pocket Sunday. (AP Photo/Sharon Ellman)

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The old rivals set up for their rematch Sunday. We can overdo the superlatives, get caught up in the voo-doo of December, and talk about the closing of Giants Stadium.

Or, we could talk about matchups.

When the Giants Have the Ball

When Dallas faced the Giants in September, they saw an opponent which presented a host of matchup problems. The Cowboys had stuggled against New York's rushing attack in the past, particularly runs to its perimeter. Run defense was again the focus, as the Cowboys trusted their secondary to contain the young Giants duo of Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham. (Rookie Hakeem Nicks missed the game with an ankle injury.)

Dallas got half the plan down. They contained Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, holding the New York attack to less than 30 first half rushing yards. But the Cowboys rush did not sack Eli Manning that night, which gave Manningham and Smith time to work out the right side of Dallas secondary. Both receivers attacked Terence Newman and Smith, when lined up in his long-time spot in the slot, abused Orlando Scandrick. Each receiver caught ten passes. Manningham gained 150 yards and Smith 134. They gained 86% of the Giants 330 passing yards.

The balance and the fun continued until game five's 44-7 blowout win over Oakland. While the win was impressive, the Giants offense began absorbing key injuries which have continued to accumulate to this day.

Quarterback Eli Manning left after just ten passing attempts with a foot injury, later diagnosed as plantar fasciitis. He says the foot has healed but several reports this week note that he has suffered a stress reaction in the same leg and his overall health remains an issue. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw, the speed complement to the bludgeon Jacobs, injured an ankle later in the contest and has not been the same since, as this line shows:

Bradshaw, games 1-5: 58 carries, 375 yards, 6.5 yards/carry, 75 yards/game;
Bradshaw, games 6-10: 57 carries, 174 yards, 3.1 yds./carry, 35 yds./game

The injuries contined the following week against New Orleans, when right tackle Kareem McKenzie was rolled from behind and had to leave the game. His injury broke a run of almost two years when the Giants starting line stayed intact.

In many ways, the '09 Giants offense resembles the '08 Cowboys O, which accumulated injuries to linemen and skill position players and saw its effectiveness erode as the season progressed. In New York's case, the numbers do not lie:

Games 1-5: 5-0 record, 30 points/game., 160 rush yds./game, 2 sacks allowed
Games 6-11: 1-5 record, 20 points/game, 99 rush yds./game, 15 sacks allowed

New York has been dying the death of a thousand paper cuts, or a dozen joint sprains, in this case. They have not suffered the catastrophic injury, like Plaxico Burress' last year, but their line, their backs and their quarterback have all been hobbled, and the results have dropped their offensive output a whopping ten points per game.

Dallas' task will be to face up to their old offense and show it no mercy. That may be easier said than done, because many of the same matchups which worked in New York's favor three months ago remain.

When New York runs the ball, it will be the Cowboys' task to make them play to their character. That may sound counter-intuitive, but New York's line, like Dallas' blocks better on the move. It also runs its attack better to the perimeters. Off-side counters, tosses, cross-blocks between the tackles and tight ends. These are the bread and butter plays of New York''s attack.

That is why they miss Bradshaw, or at least the healthy incarnation of Bradshaw. Jacobs can get off-tackle, but he looks sluggish and the Broncos showed that a 3-4 front with speed can bog him down by forcing him to run to the sidelines. Jacobs lacks the speed to turn the corner, of if his first hole isn't available inside or off tackle, he can be dropped for minimal gains.

It is unclear which Jacobs will show. He played heroically in the first month after Bradshaw's injury, having three of his season-best games against New Orleans, Arizona and San Diego, but he has been almost invisible since the Giants' bye, rushing for 66 total yards and a 2.9 average per carry. In any case, he will have to shoulder New York's rushing burden. Bradshaw has not practiced this week to rest his ailing ankle and his speedy backup Danny Ware was knocked out of last week's game with a concussion and has already been ruled out for this contest.

Expect far more blitzing this week than we saw in week two. As I noted then, Wade Phillips went against type early in the year, choosing to rush just 4 men on most of Dallas' pass plays, where he used 5 man rushes as his default last year.

He will not let Manning sit in the pocket. Phillips knows Smith and Manningham are the focal points of New York's attack right now. Smith has 869 receiver yards and Manningham has logged 665 of his own. Nicks is back and is having an impressive rookie year. OC Kevin Gilbride will likely use the same passing strategy, throwing a lot on first down and targeting Newman. The veteran has solidified his play since weeks one and two, but he's the preferred target over Mike Jenkins.

I also look for the Giants to spread the field to put Smith inside against against Scandrick. His sophomore campaign has been rough. He struggled the first month, then stepped up, but appears to have flattened out the last few games.

New York can still throw the ball, so Wade's task will be to disrupt Manning. As the stats show, this protection has broken down a lot the last six games, especially in comparison to the 5-0 start, when Manning was barely touched. Denver shut the Giants down last week with lots of pressure off the edges, which made Manning drift laterally and preventing him from getting into a regular rhythm with his wideouts.

Look for lots of Cowboys on the line of scrimmage, to run blitz and to attack Manning. Dallas has moved Demarcus Ware around a lot the last month, flopping him to the right side to get mismatches against right tackles and putting him in the center of a 3-3 nickel front, where he is free to roam between the tackles and pick a rush lane.

Phillips blitzed without restraint in last year's rematch and sacked Manning eight times. New York's banged up running attack invites him to dust that game plan off and try it again. New York's WR could sting him a bit, but I don't think Wade will back off the pressure unless his secondary flops, and they have been solid the last two months.

Tomorrow: The Cowboys offense vs. the Giants defense