Brian Burke writes Advanced NFL Stats and he has been filling in for KC Joyner over at the New York Times in their Fifth Down column.  I'm sure you all remember Joyner since he wrote about Cutler what is a general sentiment here, and a few of you may have seen my comment where I posted Chris from Smart Football's reply to Joyner's piece. 

/history lesson off.

Well Brian also appears to disagree with Joyner's analysis of Cutler's impact on the Bears, and of course the flip side of that which is Orton's impact on the Broncos.  Brian looks at a couple advanced passing metrics, one a derivitive of the other and they both come out to Cutler adding approximately 2 wins over Orton (who was exactly league average in the stat used).

What I find interesting about this is that Football Outsiders prediction of 4.9 wins for Denver is in complete agreement with Brian Burke's seperate analysis.  Last year the Bronco's were a 6.5 win team according to their pythag (Hello New Orleans and San Diego games!) and the loss of Cutler's 2 wins would put them right about where FO has them.

On a seperate note I know there was some questioning of FO's accuracy in their predictions last year, particularly regarding Miami and Atlanta.  I have last years prospectus but it's not with me, I'll post their win evaluations later if I anyone wants.

Meanwhile, in the Eagles clubhouse after Brian Dawkins left:

TRENT COLE: Something is wrong. I feel... leaderless.

MIKE PATTERSON: Me too. I feel unmotivated. Rudderless. Empty. Someone should call a meeting to talk about it.

CHRIS GOCONG: But who? Only leaders can call meetings. We have no leaders. No leaders whatsoever!

ASANTE SAMUEL: You are right. I am just a Pro Bowl caliber player who spent years playing for the most successful franchise of recent history. I cannot possibly fill the void.

SHELDON BROWN: Nor can I, a veteran who has been with the team for years.

DONOVAN McNABB: Everyone knows I can't do it, because I am weak, selfish, lazy, temperamental, incompetent, and secretly evil.

TRENT COLE: Guys, I forget ... I forget how to put on a helmet. Is this strap thing a chin strap or a scrotum strap?

CHRIS GOCONG: Who will bang his fist on the ground and make crazy gestures when his name is announced? Without those gestures, we cannot possibly win.

SHELDON BROWN: I ... I can try. When they call my name, I will smile and blow kisses to everyone, wave my hand gently. That will work right? Please, tell me that will work.

MIKE PATTERSON: My God, why won't anyone call a meeting?

ASANTE SAMUEL: Woe unto us. Our only hope was to keep playing an aging safety whose skills have been in decline for years, a guy we had to hide in coverage. He may have been a step too slow. We may have had to keep Quentin Demps in deep coverage to protect him, but Dawkins' leadership was the only thing that kept this defense together!

CHRIS GOCONG: Guys, how do we get out of the clubhouse? Dawkins always led the way. Without him, we may never figure out how to leave this room!

MIKE PATTERSON: I'll never see daylight again. I'll never see daylight again.

SHELDON BROWN: That wooden thing, with the knob and the hinges. I think it holds the secret to our escape. Trent, try to do something to it.

TRENT COLE: I cannot. I am not driven enough, not intense enough.

BRIAN WESTBROOK: C'mon guys, aren't we getting carried away? Brian was a great player, but he was well past his prime. He was turning into a role player, and he probably only has one year left as a starter. Yes, his leadership meant a lot to all of us. But we are all professionals, and there are plenty of veterans on this roster who know how to win. There's me, Sheldon, Asante. Mike, you and Trent are young veterans now, and you can do your part to keep everyone focused and ready to play. Even Donovan might conceivably play a leadership role, as insane as that sounds. So let's wish Brian well and get on with our lives. What do you say? Guys? Guys?

TRENT COLE: I think I am going to go wedge my head behind the toilet and sob.

MIKE PATTERSON: Me too

CHRIS GOCONG: Make room!

BRIAN WESTBROOK: Sigh.

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So if we continue off of this from part 1, we have a GM in place with the authority to captain his own ship.  The GM list I had was not comprehensive, but it certainly had a player personnel/scouting theme.  This is because of where you need to succeed to be competitive in the NFL, and where by and large the Raiders have failed.  The draft.

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So I’ve been screaming from the roof tops under just about every post about how bad Al Davis is for the Raiders.  I figured that if I’m going to tell everyone there is a problem I should try to offer up a solution too.  You may think that this stuff won’t change anything, but that’s not entirely true.  If fans start talking enough then local media starts picking it up (usually sports radio is the first).  As the clamor grows the support grows, and while Al will certainly neither see or care about this particular post, it’s not outlandish to think that down the road he may hear a similar message.

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Ok, so I've never done a fanpost, and if you'd asked me 10 minutes ago I would have said I never would.  I'm just happier in the peanut gallery, but after a discussion with some Bronco fans over on their site I felt it was time to bring some more attention to www.footballoutsiders.com.

You might already be familiar with them, they have a post on espn.com from time to time,they release a book every year called Pro Football Prospectus (they work closely with the pro baseball prospectus people that you may or may not be aware of), and I've mentioned them here before.  I think they explain themselves best, so I'll borrow their words:

Imagine two running backs who each gain three yards. Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances where the average NFL running back gains only two yards (for example, third-and-1), it can be argued that Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play where, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back would be expected to gain five yards (for example, second-and-15), it can be argued that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position.

I'll use the example of tackles.  A common way to determine how good a linebacker is is by using how many tackles he gets in a year. That is a terrible way to look at things.  A tackle 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage is worth light years more than a tackle 5 yards down field.  But a tackle 5 yards down field on 3rd and 6 is worth light years more than a tackle 6 yards down field on 3rd and 6.  Traditional stats tell you very little about actual success, a yard is not a yard is not a yard.

What football outsiders has done is pretty amazing. They've gone back to 1995 and entered every play, offense, defense and special teams, into a database and applied their success rates accordingly.  Eventually what they spit out is a couple different stats, the big ones are DVOA and DYAR (recently changed from DPAR). 

You'll have to visit the site and learn about them for yourselves, they're not simple things to explain.  But, if you don't care or want to know a single thing about them outside of how to read them I can help.  0% is average.  Anything above 0% is good for offense, bad for defense.  Anything below 0% is good for defense, bad for offense.  A little strange, but it makes sense if you think about it.  Everything is measured in success points, negative success points means the offense went backwards (or didn't achieve what it should), which is a win for a defense.  Whats good for one is bad for the other.  So when you see the Patriots D ranked first with a DVOA of a large negative number it's not a typo.

Football will never be boiled down into pure stats the way baseball has, there are far too many variables.  However footballoutsiders has the best stats to use for intelligent football discussions.  And, beyond the stats, they have a lot of great articles, everything from breaking down teams and games to the latest waiver wire news and what not.  I love the site and encourage you all to check it out.