Here are my votes for the MVP award:

1. Justin Verlander. For most of the season, Jose Bautista had the highest Wins Above Replacement in the American League (per Baseball-reference.com). At seasons end though, Verlander and Bautista were in a tie.  In this case my tie breaker is Verlander’s contributions to a playoff team. Looking back at the season, Verlander’s June performance stands out to me. On June 1 the Tigers were five games back, and at the end of the month they were a half game up in the Central division.  During that time Verlander made six starts, pitched at least eight innings in five of them (and seven in the other), and allowed only five runs, no more than two in any start.  He pitched 49 innings with a 0.92 ERA, walked six and struck out 54. In the end the Tigers won by 15 games, they didn't need Verlander’s performance.  But at the time, it was extremely impressive and the clearest example in the 2011 season of one player carrying his team.

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Right after the end of the season I was given the privilege of voting for the Sports Blog Nation’s picks for the American League MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the year awards.  The results will be announced this week.  Here are the players I voted for, and my reasons for each:

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I haven't even thought about the wild card all year until now. I just figured the only way the Angels get into the playoffs is to beat Texas. Now, I think the Angels will be best served if Texas clinches the division before next week, so the Angels can play a hungover team setting up for a playoff matchup.

Watching Boston's implosion has been great entertainment.  If nothing else, the situation has driven a significant number of Red Sox fans to root for the Yankees against Tampa Bay. The Red Sox collpase has been so complete that Tampa Bay could easily be tied for first right now if they were able to beat anyone except Boston. But if they don't want it bad enough, maybe the Angels do.

If the Angels can pull out a few more games, the Yankees pound the Red Sox and we take the wildcard, the season highlights must include last night's hit from our old friend.  Vladimir Guerrero's two-run single off Josh Beckett felt just like old times.

And the pick is... Matt Scioscia!

I'm sure some will cry nepotism, but sometimes nepotism pays off. And nobody should know that better than Mike Scioscia. The player who took his job with the Dodgers was only drafted as a favor to Tommy Lasorda, but that won't stop Mike Piazza from ending up in Cooperstown.

Brandon Wood might just be the worst young position player of my lifetime, at least among those who were given the chance to play significant time in the majors.  What I looked for on Baseball-reference.com's play index is non-pitchers age 25 and under, with at least 300 plate appearances, who played post-integration (1947-2010).  I ranked them by worst OPS+.

Brandon is actually not the absolute worst, that would be John Vukovich.  Vukovich was primarily a third baseman, and in 1971 at age 23 he got 217 at bats and hit a mighty .166, with zero homeruns, and a .211 OBP.  He might have been expected to hit something, as in AAA he hit .275 with 22 homers and 96 RBI.  For some reason he stuck around for a 10 year career, even picking up a world series win in 1980, but hit only .161 in 559 career AB.

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I'm glad I went to bed last night before Marson hit the grand slam.  If I had seen that I would have been angry all night instead of just this morning.  The Angels played the best offensive lineup they could muster last night:  Napoli catching, no Mathis, Rivera at first, and Willits instead of Bourjos.  They still could only manage a single run.

The season is lost, there is almost no chance of even finishing .500, and worst of all, we've got a bunch of veteran players who are worn out, frustrated, and listless from the futile struggle that 2010 has been.  We have an opportunity to see 20 games of major league experience for some young players who might never amount to anything, but might be able to help the 2011 team.  It's time we take the opportunity to see what we have.  I suggest playing time be distributed as follows:

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It's that time of year again.  Go to Tango Tiger's site and fill in your report: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/fans_scouting_report_by_the_fans_for_the_fans_2010/

Keep in mind, don't pay attention to any of the stats, just what your eyes tell you.

Frankly, they are beyond the bounds of believability.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2010.shtml  Through 17 games, Peter Bourjos has a TotalZone rating of +11, which breaks down as +4 for his outfield assists, and +7 for his range.  That kind of rate cannot be maintained, it would mean he'd save something like 100 runs per full season.  But has he saved 11 runs so far?  You look at the plays, count them up, and it seems about right so far.  Last night he saved 3 with a catch that turned a 3 run homer into the third out of the inning.  Earlier he just missed another, turning a homerun into a double off the heel of his glove (nobody's perfect).

Before last night's game he had 16 games, 54 putouts, and 4 assists.  If any outfielder really could keep up that pace, racking up 540 putouts (400 is a good total for a CF) and 40 assists (Even Clemente never did that) in a season, he probably would be saving that many runs.  Speaking of the 4 assists, Torii Hunter had that many in the entire 2008 season, and another 4 for 2009-2010 combined.  This Bourjos kid is something special in the field. 

So far, looks like another Devon White.  Let's be very patient with his bat, and not dump him so he can help somebody else win world series titles.

...Mike Trout?  I read this on a Fangraphs chat from Bryan Smith:

"I could see Harper getting one day in the MLB this season -- didn't the Nats do that with Ryan Zimmerman? But to stay, probably Trout. The Angels have dropped hints that they might be ready to go to war with Trout next year, crazy as it seems."

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Particularly, I want to here from anybody who has watched the Travelers on a regular basis.  How is Jordan Walden throwing this year?  Velocity?  What mix of pitches is he using?

I've been looking forward to his conversion to relief for some time, and thought he had the stuff to move quickly and be a closer.  His numbers have been OK, but not dominant.  So I'm curious to know what his stuff looks like.

First thing I want to do is state that I am not proposing a trade, or that the Twins or Angels would consider this.  This is just a thought experiment to provide some entertainment as we suffer through a day without baseball.

So if you could have either player, but not both, do you want Joe Mauer or Mike Trout? And why?

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This is cause for me to use my monthly obscenity.  But I'll save it for a bit.  The Rangers trade Justin Smoak and prospects for Cliff Lee, who right now is probably the best pitcher in the league.  Baseball Prospectus playoff odds give us only a 10% chance of winning the division this year.  Our team has quite a few flaws:

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After a slow start, he's quickly made his AAA numbers look respectable.  Last 10 games he's hitting .442, with 4 triples and 2 homers.  No doubles.  Peter Bourjos does not stop at 2B.  Overall, he's raised his average from just under .250 to .281 with the streak.  He's got 22 steals in 25 attempts, and he's the best defensive outfielder in the organization, majors or minors.

Bring him up to play left field, batting 9th to start out.  Bench Rivera against righties, and against lefties play Rivera every day, alternating between benching Matsui and Abreu.  Neither of our ancient, lefty swing ex-Yankees are hitting a damn against lefties this year, and old legs wear down over a long season, they should not be on a 155 game pace anyway. Time for a platoon.

If we don't, I predict Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui will both be so worn down by September they hit below .200 for the month.

I'll start out with the futility of trading for a first baseman.  Let's assume that guys like Pujols, Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, and the ugly guy in Boston are not in play.  Prince Fielder is a great hitter, but what do you do with him next year when Kendry comes back?  Plus Fielder would cost a ton of prospects, so let's assume he's not going to be an Angel.  There are a few first basemen who fit into the rental category.  Here they are along with their projected linear weights runs above average per 150 games:

Lance Berkman +17

Adam Dunn +20

Paul Konerko +16

Derrek Lee +11

Adam LaRoche +3

The guy we have right now, Mike Napoli, projects at +17.  He's just as good with the bat as this crew and to my complete surprise, can field at first base.  We could spend a lot of money and surrender minor league depth to put a different (not better) first baseman out there, but why anyone thinks this is a good idea is beyond me.

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The Angelsare now 31-28, 3 games above .500 for the first time all season.  They have still been outscored by 6 runs on the season, 280 to 286 (don't worry, our next opponent has been outscored by 14).  Every stat head knows that Pythagorean record is more important than wins on the field, but the Angels have shown quite a bit of improvement lately.  Heading into Seattle, they had been outscored 253-279, for a Pythagorean record of 25-31.

After beating up on the Mariners, 27-7, the Angels' Pythagorean record stands at 29-30.  So in other words, how good was the latest 3 game sweep?  It was worth FOUR wins, and actually erased one from the loss column.  That is good. 

The way to post a good Pythagorean record is to beat up on your opponent's bullpen WITHOUT MERCY.  Compare this to the last two years, where the Angels refused to beat clubs when they were down, they preferred to keep things close to pad the save totals of Francisco Rodriguez the first and then Brian Fuentes.  Saves are overrated.  No more mercy.  Lets keep showing other teams the beat-down.

Mike Trout.  3 hits today, a homer, double, plus a walk.  He's hitting .372.  Takes walks, showing good power.  Did I mention he can run (20 steals already).  And he's only 18.  He's the most exciting prospect we've had since...well, you know who I'm talking about.  And that player's struggles show why you can't expect too much out of any prospect.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=545361

Hank Blalock is tearing the cover off the ball in AAA for the Rays, and playing 3rd base.  He has the right to opt out of his contract if not called up soon.  If he's a free agent, should the Angels offer a contract?  Maybe trade a low level prospect to the Rays to get his rights before he can field offers from everyone?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/05/rays-face-decision-on-blalock.html

Or maybe both?  Through Thursday's disaster the Angels have allowed a league worst 166 runs, 37 more than the average team.  Who's most to blame?  I've alternated on this issue, depending on whether I'm watching another relief pitcher who can't find the strike zone, an outfielder jogging after a ball that winds up dropping 5 feet in front of him, another line drive, an infielder bobbling a routine chance, a gopherball, or catcher playing catch with Torii Hunter.  So let's see what the numbers say:

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Angels pitching has been extremely frustrating to watch (well, not so frustrating last night) because of a frequent inability to throw strikes.  I wondered, is there any evidence that the catching can make a difference?  A catcher can cost a pitcher a strike if he moves too much while catching a pitch, or blocking the ump from seeing a portion of the zone ("get down, Napoli!").  Some say a catcher can buy a strike by framing a pitch, but if they are too obvious about it the umpire may be inclined to call a ball.  I looked at retrosheet's data to see what difference, if any, I can find in pitcher walk rate between Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli.

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Last year the Angels gained 4 excellent prospects, Mike Trout, Randal Grichuk, Garret Richards, and Tyler Skaggs from free agent compensation picks.  This year they'll have several more high picks.  From 2004 to 2008 the Angels gave up a lot of picks for free agent signings.  I wonder how many of those they regret?  How much major league talent was lost?  How much better would the farm system have been?  Of course, there is no guarantee that the Angels would have taken the same players that were taken by the teams who got our picks.  Here's the signings that turned out to be strong investments, and those that were duds:

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I'll start off by saying I'm new to MLBAM's Pitch F/X data.  I haven't compared him to other pitchers to see if his pitch selection patterns are normal, but I'll show you what I found.  In Tuesday night's game, Joe Saunders pitched 5 innings of batting practice, giving up 8 hits, 5 runs, and 3 homers. 

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Over at the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe had an article yesterday on Mike Scioscia and some other manager of a team I'd prefer to ignore.  He's continuing the analysis from his book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers, 1876-2008.  Some things we know, his teams strike out less, walk less, and hit more singles than most.  There are some surprises, he gives his outfielders the least rest of anybody.  He rides the outfielders while giving his top catchers plenty of time off.  Mike Napoli not in the starting lineup opening day?  Well, at least Mathis hit a bomb so the complaints will have to wait.

Finally, Scioscia is first among all 10 year managers in ERA+ from his bullpen, and in piling up the saves, first in saves per win.  One thing I found in the book is that Scioscia is great at handling pitchers, his pitchers generally beat their projections to the tune of 30 runs per year for the whole staff.  He's good with hitters too, but he really stands out with his handling of the pitching staff.

We all know Scioscia is a great manager.  I recommend Jaffe's book to anyone who wants to try and quantify that.

Please take a minute to go to Tango Tiger's site and fill out your projection of Angel playing time.  This is a wisdom of the crowds approach, and last year the fans filling these out were more accurate than any of those idiot projection systems.  Problem is, as I type this only 6 fans have submitted a ballot for the Angels.  This is a popularity contest folks!  We probably won't have as many fans submitting ballots as for the Seattle Mariners (161), we'll just have to be content beating them during the season.  Oakland (8) and Texas (12) are within sight, and I know you guys can fill out enough ballots to leave them in the dust.

Here's the link: http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/

The short answer is no, you should not.  Last season, Jered Weaver was the ace of the staff, despite one of the slowest average fastballs among righthanded pitchers, 88.7 MPH.  That number doesn't seem all that slow, but the average four seam fastball thrown by righthanded pitchers in the majors last year was 92.1 (Lefthanders are about 2 MPH slower on average).  Recent research published on the Hardball Times suggests that the slower throwing pitchers tend to do worse than theirprojections, by about half a run of ERA.  Weaver falls into this category.

While this is good research and may help to more accurately project pitchers in general, I've looked a bit deeper into the case of Weaver and don't think he has anything to worry about.

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Here's what I expect Scioscia to tell the crew before today's game:  You are up 2-0, but play this one like you're down 0-2.  Don't let up.  Don't lose your edge.  Let's bury these guys.

With Kazmir on the mound, Ortiz and Drew are neutralized.  Lowell is slow as crap, and playing with a hurt thumb.  Keep him on the ground.   Martinez, batting righty, is still good but not as dangerous as batting lefty.  Bay and Youkilis are your biggest threats.  Bay can be pitched to with offspeed stuff, don't let Youkilis hurt you in crucial situations.

The key to handling their offense is getting ahead in the count but keeping the ball off the center of the plate.  This is easier said than done, it's also called great pitching.  Essentially what Weaver and Lackey did in the first two games, and what Kazmir did in game 5 of the ALCS last year.

On offense, Clay Buchholz has good stuff, but sometimes shaky confidence.  He's had his moments where he's been described as "a deer in the headlights".  Well, time to turn the high beams on.  Figgins needs to reach base and put the pressure on early.  And from there, no letup.  Angels have beat him before, in 3 career starts we are talking about 17 innings, 30 baserunners, and 18 total runs allowed.  In his final regular season start, he allowed 6 runs in 3 innings against the Indians' AAA lineup. Yes, more of that.

The media will take any opportunity to fellate the Red Sox for all kinds of admirable human qualities if they start to come back from the an 0-2 deficit.  They have come back before.  In addition to 1986, their teams have come back from 0-2 against Cleveland in 1999, 0-2 against Oakland in 2003, 0-3 against the Yankees in 2004,  and 3-1 agaisnt Cleveland in 2007.  But they are not immune to good baseball.  The White Sox got to 2-0 in 2005, and finished them off.  The Rays got to 3-1 last year, and after nearly blowing it, held onto that series as well. The media eagerly awaits to give them accolades for "coming back from the dead". 

This is bullshit.  Extreme bullshit.  They are not dead.  It is up to the Angels to put a stake through the heart, cut off the head, fill the mouth with holy wafers, immerse them in running water, and expose them to direct sunlight (last part should be easy, it's a daygame).  Keep on playing with the passion, determination, and intelligence you have shown in the first two games Angels, and you will win.  Never let up.

To paraphrase Acuda,

Let's put Kendry Morales at first, the guy we traded Sean Rodriguez for on the mound.  Now let's go WIN!

Chone Figgins has to be the last player in the big leagues you'd ever want to walk.  The more power you have, the more pitchers will consider pitching around you, afraid of the damage you might cause.  Figgins is many things, but a power hitter sure isn't one of them.  He's the kind of player who is so unlikely to get Figgy with a longball that you'd expect a pitcher to just throw it down the middle on a 3 ball count.  David Eckstein was like this, he seemed like a patient hitter who avoided swinging at bad pitches, but didn't walk much because everyone made an effort to throw him strikes.

That's not the only reason to avoid walking him though.  With his speed, he can turn a walk into a triple.  Especially leading off an inning, a pitcher has to go into the PA thinking "I can't walk Figgins.  If he gets on, he has to hit his way on"

Somehow, in spite of all this Figgins has passed the 100 walk mark this season.  There have not been many speedy, non-power hitters to do this.  Since World War II, there have been only 6 seasons where a player hits fewer than 10 homers, steals 35 or more bases, and still takes 100 walks.  Three of those seasons belong to the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, Rickey Henderson.  He did it in 1980 and 1983 before he developed power, and as an old man in 1996.  Joe Morgan did it in 1970, this was before he joined the big red machine.  Hitting 8 homeruns in the 1970 Astrodome probably should be considered an impressive feat of power though.  Brett Butler did it for the 1991 Dodgers, and finally Figgins joined the club last night.

I've run updated CHONE projections (the preseason ones are on baseballprojection.com) and here are the Angels who have risen and fallen the most so far, by projected OPS:

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Are any other Halo Heaven members going to Arizona?  I will be there next week and plan on seeing a few Angel games at different stadiums around Phoenix.  If anyone wants to try and meet up send me an email.

It's rallymonkey (insert number worn by Brian Downing as an Angel) at comcast dot net.

Ned to get this up to 75 words.  What about the back end of the starting rotation?  Can we trust these guys?  What if we suffer another injury or two?  I really want to see Pedro Martinez in the big A this year.

Normally I detest the A's and everything they stand for, as I know many of you do as well.  I checked tonight's score and saw they were up 5-0 in the second inning.  My immediate reaction was disgust.  But then, they are playing Seattle, and if they win this game it gets us a little closer to our rightful playoff spot.  An added bonus is that a strong finish by the A's, lets say they get over .500, means that Billy Beane's draft pick will not be protected.  I'd hate to see them spend money on a decent free agent (I know, if they do it will be the first time) and still pick 12 or 13 in next year's draft.  I'd rather them be in a spot where they can't sign anybody because to do so would mean giving up their #16 or #17 pick.

From the LA Times, found it on Baseball Primer:

"I feel like I'm being pushed aside, put on a back-burner, and I don't like that at all," Hillenbrand, 31, said. "If I'm not going to play here, give me enough respect to trade me or get rid of me. I think I deserve that."

If Manager Mike Scioscia "doesn't think I can help this team, there are teams out there I can help," Hillenbrand continued. "I'm a quality player in the prime of my career. To go from playing every day to not playing at all, it's very disheartening."