SB Nation User Blog: RamVA

Rating Ernie's moves

RamVA — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 01:50:29 -0000

Ernie Grunfeld just celebrated his 6th anniversary as the GM of the Wizards, so I thought it might be a good time to rate his (major) moves to date. I think most of us agree he's a better than average GM, and he's taken us from perennial also-rans to (more-or-less) perennial mid-packers.

In the case of signings, I've used the guideline of whether the signing makes the franchise meaningfully better, adjusted for cost ("C" is neutral). In the case of trades I've focused on "who won" ("C" is a tie.) I have also applied 20/20 hindsight where applicable. Finally, I've ignored minor transactions, including 10-day contracts, low minute/minimum contracts, and the like. Let's look...

2003:

Signed Gilbert Arenas - A

Signed Chris Whitney - C

Exercised option on Kwame Brown - B+

Exercised option on Brendan Haywood - B+

2004:

Traded Stackhouse, Laettner, Harris for Jamison - A-

Signed Peter John Ramos - D

Matched to retain Etan Thomas - D+

Signed Anthony Peeler - C+

Signed Michael Ruffin - B-

Signed Samaki Walker - C

2005:

Signed Antonio Daniels - B-

Traded Kwame and Profit for Atkins and Butler - A+

Drafted Andray Blatche - B

Signed Calvin Booth - C

Declined to Match for Blake - C

Exercised option for Hayes - C

Extended Butler - A

2006:

Bought out Atkins - C

Signed Songaila - C+

Signed Stevenson- B+

Declined to match for Jeffries - B

2007:

Drafted Nick Young - B-

Signed Pecherov - D+

Drafted McGuire - A-

Extended Blatche - B+

Signed Roger Mason Jr. - A-

2008:

Drafted McGee - A-

Extended Jamison - B-

Re-signed Arenas - B-

Signed Dixon - D

Extended Young - B+

Extended Pecherov - C

Traded Daniels for James and Crittenton - C+

2009:

Traded Rubio, Pecherov, Songaila, Thomas for Miller and Foye - A-

Signed Oberto - C+

Overall there have been four outright mistakes - Ramos, Pecherov, and Dixon take 2 (all minor), and the match for Thomas. On balance I think he's proven to be very good at trades, and probably about average at drafting based on his record here. I think the area that's both toughest to judge and perhaps his weakest spot is his record in resigning our own free agents. I don't think there's been anything stunningly great there, but to be fair that grade is "incomplete" and will be determined based on how we do this year.

Just one man's opinion...

Coaching Carousel Getting Out of Hand?

RamVA — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:37:18 -0000

Michael Curry got fired today.

And with that, 15 teams have changed coaches since the end of the '07-08 season, and a remarkable seven of those have changed twice. In fairness, three of those seven were interim, and of the 15, Riley removed himself, but nonetheless that's a lot.

None of these removals, if looked at independently, is terribly unfair in my opinion. In aggregate, though, it's an interesting pattern which is changing the incentives that coaches face and might change the nature of the sport. No other sport has coaching turnover to this degree.

Surely part of the problem is that there are perhaps only 15 genuinely "qualified" head coaches in the league (we have one of them). Regardless, though, when the perceived job security in this league is what it is some issues are going to arise:

- Young head coaches must take care not to butt heads with a star (or semi-star) player. The player will win.

- Developing talent at the expense of wins is a risk even if it's a consensus decision with the owner and GM. Fans (overall) don't like it, won't pay for it, and the head coach, especially an unknown one, is an easy scapegoat.

- You must change your style to fit the personnel you have, because you probably don't have time or leverage to do the reverse. (Also, see rule #1.)

No doubt, winning is important. I suspect, though, that the focus on the short term at the expense of the long term will make life difficult in many NBA cities.

Don't Worry About Tanking

RamVA — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 00:17:53 -0000

Despite a generally win-hungry fan-base, I am starting to hear the rumblings that we should start losing and focus on the lottery. I understand that point of view, but would like to point out that given where we stand it doesn't matter (much).

First, the math. As we sit with 11 wins it's obvious that we could end the season with the worst record in the league. It's important to note, though, that the best we could realistically do is 5th worst. Minnesota is currently 6th worst with 17 wins, and our chance of catching them or any of the teams above them is minute. (I'd even say we have a slim chance of catching Memphis' 15 wins, but the Grizz can find a way...)

So we have a range of outcomes we could achieve. I'd generously say they are all equally likely outcomes if we don't deliberately lose games, though that's probably under-rating our fellow bottom-feeders (SAC, LAC, OKC, and in particular MEM - I think we'll need at least 20 wins to be 26th in the league). If so, you get the following odds (numbers rounded):

Finish 1st 2nd-4th Worst

30th 25% 75% 4th

29th 20% 68% 5th

28th 16% 54% 6th

27th 12% 38% 7th

26th 9% 20% 8th

I've chosen these stats for a reason, related to this year's flat draft class. We all #1 is the prize, and I'm assessing that 2-4 will be roughly equal and clearly ahead of 5-8 (which depends on Ricky Rubio's decision). Draft watchers can feel free to argue.

What it shows (at least to me), is a few interesting facts:

- Being worst is a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and it comes not from the the higher likelihood of getting Griffin, but from the certainty of picking no worse than 4th.

- Comparing 4th worst to 2nd worst, there's slightly greater than a 60% chance that it makes no difference at all.

- A point that should be obvious to everyone, but is especially important with this draft class: No matter how bad we are, the chance of getting a difference maker this year in the draft is relatively small.

So what's the point? While given this team's situation it's still reasonable to hope for the worst record in the league, we shouldn't be worrying too much about the meager wins we might get. Given the odds that Sacramento and Clippers are already tanking, we're going to have a tough time being last, and so I'd as soon cheer for the Wiz to win and enjoy it when they actually do.

Excellent Night at the Verizon Center

RamVA — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 02:57:05 -0000

[Ed. Note: Promoted from the FanPosts. -Jake]

I've attended the last three home games, and let me tell you, there's never been a better time to catch a game in person than right now:

- No waiting! Lines at the concession stands are as super short. Even at half time, there's no waiting to get that hot dog and beer. You won't miss a minute of the action!

- It's peaceful! The crowds are so thin and so quiet, there's no chance you miss that important phone call from you boss. Or mother. It's like being in your own living room!

- Get to meet fans from other teams! If you, like me, have never met and talked to an actual Grizzlies fan, you can get to know them, and learn about Marko Jaric's game than you've ever known or wanted to!

- Stretch out space! If needed, the seat in front, behind, and either side of you can be empty! Even on a weekend!

- No "dagger"! 'Nuff said.

So, Wiz fans, get thee to the phone booth, while tickets last!