SB Nation User Blog: Rand

Pursuit of PERfection - Why Spurs Ruck

Rand — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 18:49:46 -0000

To 'ruck': to rock or to suck, one or the other, with little middle ground.

Especially with the ubiquity of fantasy sports, there is an inordinate amount of effort that goes into transforming athletes into numbers. This is especially true in baseball, which I can't even follow anymore - any sport in which the difference between greatness and despair sits more than two places after the decimal point has officially lost my interest. That said, there's safety in numbers, and if you know the actual context it's possible to look through the math and see glimmers of truth.

Hollinger's PER (Player Efficiency Rating) statistic is in many ways flawed, but at the very least it makes a reasonable attempt to identify who's overrated and who's underrated in today's NBA. Without further ado, then, a little fun with the (as of today's date) Hollinger PER player rankings.

1) LeBron James, CLE - This is as it should be. At the top of these rankings you'd expect to find players of extraordinary talent in systems that cater to that talent. In this case, the King Without a Ring is a classic showcase star: the whole team is built around helping him do his thing. Does that win championships? Rarely. But it gets you to the top of the PER list. The next three in the list are in the same boat: Wade, Paul and Howard are great players whose teams live or die by their production. Their job is to be the star, and they do that job. You might, in fact, expect that the first few dozen players on the list would fall into this category: the franchise players on each team who get their numbers dialed up time and time again.

5) Tony Parker, SAS - The first Spur, and surely a surprise. Tony's a fine player, sure, but I don't have a clue what kind of shoes he wears. He's certainly not the sole option like the players above him in the list are for their teams. So why such a high PER? He must be pretty damned efficient if he can rank this high while sharing the rock with stars like:

7) Tim Duncan, SAS - And...

8) Manu Ginobili, SAS - Wow. Two more Spurs - a total of three in the top ten. I wonder how far down we'd have to go to find the next team to get three players on the list?

10) Kobe Bryant, LAL

21) Pau Gasol, LAL

24) Andrew Bynum, LAL - Yup, it's the Lakers who put up the next-best Big Three. Should they feel bad that their top-ranked player scores lower than our third? Sure, why not. But what about the other 'Big Three', the Boston Boys?

27) Kevin Garnett, BOS

36) Ray Allen, BOS

38) Rajon Rondo, BOS - Huh? Rondo's the third most efficient player on the Celtics? Where'd Pierce go, anyway?

97) Paul Pierce, BOS - Oh. Awkward.

But enough talk about the competition - let's get back to the Spurs. Obviously, our Big Three (being the *actual* Big Three) are at the top of the heap. You certainly wouldn't expect us to field anybody else in the top 50. That would just be greedy.

47) Matt Bonner, SAS - Huh. Well then. And who is Red Rocket better than?

48) Baron Davis, LAC - Like we didn't already know that. So, who else is ranked where?

88) George Hill, SAS - Qbitz! To the rescue! That's five Spurs in the top 100, all of them more efficient than...

99) Carmelo Anthony, DEN - Now there's a shock. Okay then. Where's everybody .else at?

158) Roger Mason, SAS - Okay, that's not an exalted ranking, but bear in mind - it's a deep league, and he's still outdoing the likes of J.R. Smith and Lamar Odom. Anything over 200, however, and they're probably best off playing limited minutes in highly specialized situations (or, ideally, being traded).

221) Michael Finley, SAS

240) Anthony Tolliver, SAS

266) Kurt Thomas, SAS

288) Fabricio Oberto, SAS

291) Jacque Vaughn, SAS

295) Ime Udoka, SAS

303) Bruce Bowen, SAS

What can we say? Findog we knew about, and we don't even pretend to be asking Bruce to play the same sport as everybody else in the league. Still ... that's a little worrisome, right? Can we afford to have seven active-roster players in the bottom third of the league? If not, we can always get rid of them. Check out the very bottom of the barrel, the last page of the rankings, players 301-317 on the list:

305) Francisco Elson, MIL

313) Brent Barry, HOU

314) Nazr Mohammed, CHA

317) Malik Rose, NYK

Yup - just as three of the top ten players are Spurs, three of the bottom ten players are former Spurs. And all of them have rings.

I don't know what this means. But it must mean something.

A few notes from the Pistons game

Rand — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:39:40 -0000

Well. Okay then. This much, at least, I know:

The good news: if we hadn't been sloppy as hell out there, we'd have won. Manu and TP shot a combined 10-24; that's not gonna happen too often. Plus, we were sloppy as hell, and ordinarily we're good at not being sloppy as hell. 'Course, ordinarily JFK was good at not getting shot in the head; just because it's not a habit doesn't make it less horrific when it happens.
Jacque Vaughn stepped onto the court tonight. Best Case Scenario: Pop is giving the JV a little play to attract some GM desperate for a savvy veteran leper. Worst Case Scenario: Pop thinks that the JV has a legitimate excuse to be wearing a Spurs uniform that doesn't involve selling Spurs uniforms.
Tim Duncan was created when military scientists, after countless failed experiments with pieces of structural lumber and streusel topping, finally achieved the Ultimate Stud Muffin. 9-19 be damned, he was a hoss out there tonight.
Qbitz is a goddamned Spur. There is no statistical category that tracks catching up with an opponent on the fast break and swatting away easy lay-ups, but we all know the truth. Now if only he could get more than six minutes in a game that could have used a lot less JV and even a smidge less TP.
Matt Bonner looks great! Let's trade his ginger-whiskered ass quick, maybe he's got somebody fooled!
Timmy sat on a cameraman's face. In a week, the cameraman's oncologist will be at a loss - he's never seen a cancerous face-lesion go into remission that fast. The FDA will fast-track approval for over-the-counter sales of Tim Duncan ass sweat.
Quelle dommage - Le P'tit Francais is not yet in top form. Shooting struggles aside, we don't seem to be getting in the extra pass with him running the point. What if we gave *him* some time in the second unit? With him slashing and Mason at the arc, we'd have a deadly drive-and-dish pairing that could put up serious points against an enemy second unit. 'Course, we'd have to find *somebody* to start at PG. Maybe somebody with long arms and dreamy brown eyes a fella could get lost in...
Seriously. Can somebody please go Kathy-Bates-in-'Misery' on the JV? At this point I'd rather see James Caan in black and silver.
Rasheed Wallace needs to get Tim Duncan to sit on his head. It would fix his attitude and cure that freaky little grey patch on the back of his skull.

A Pack of Lies: A Preview of This Year's Pessimism

Rand — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 04:45:02 -0000

Let's face it: we're all bitter, cynical pessimists. We have to be - at no point in this century have we been more than two years away from a ring, and we've got a legit GOAT flanked by two no-nonsense all-stars. If we weren't pessimists, we'd be arrogant jerks. And we're not jerks. So we're going to spend the rest of this season, like every season, going back to the same old wells for reasons why we can't win it all this year.

One problem: those wells are drying up.

The Spurs are too old. This one just gets better every year, right? Unfortunately, I was momentarily distracted by a bumblebee, and when I turned back around Los Spurs had pulled a fast one. A couple of fast ones, actually - fast, athletic, and above all young. Out with RoHo, in with Hill and Mason - and suddenly time is on our side.

We don't have the offense. God, tell me about it. I have this dream where I'm naked, and I'm falling, and Pop has got Fab, Horry, Bowen and FinDog in with JV running the point. But now ... feel free to double-check my math, but Duncan + Parker + Manu + Mason + Hill = five guys who can go off at any time. That means the only way Pop can field a No-O lineup once we whittle this down to a nine-man rotation will be if he decides to go four-on-five.

Point guards? What point guards? For how long have we lived and died by the fact that Manu can de facto run the point when we need him to? Because face it, Parker has to sit sometime, and Manu was the only other guy on the team who could be reliably counted on not to dribble off his foot. Don't look now guys, but at this point it would take some creativity on Pop's part to field a lineup containing not one but two guys who can handle, pass, and create.

Our bench makes a mud puddle look like the Marianas Trench. Yikes. If we didn't insist on pretending that Manu's a reserve, we'd be looking at bench production you can count without taking off your shoes. We're used to very delicate math in San Antonio - an average of twenty points apiece from our big three, another fifteen or so from some combination of Bowen corners, Fab garbage collection, and FinDog doggery, and then whatever the hell the scrubs can put together while the real players wince from the sidelines. Now? I just watched a game in which the bench came up with 54 points. More than twice what the other team's bench scored. Stop me if you can see where I'm going with this.

Time to face facts, gentlemen: it's time to turn over a new leaf. And so I humbly submit two plausible reasons for despair, to keep us from unsightly glee whenever Manu turns back the clock with an exclamation-point dunk or Mr. Hill rejects the #1 draft pick. Some fear for this year:

Chemistry problems. We've never seen Mason and Hill in the same rotation as Manu and Parker. Who knows what could happen? Sure, Hill seems to actually do better off the bench, and it's hard to picture career-backup-turned-lottery-winner Mason getting chippy with Emmanuel "I don't give a flying f***" Ginobili, but who knows. Maybe having defensive pressure diverted towards the all-stars will destroy the newbies' sense of self-worth, and they'll start to sulk at being guarded by scrubs.

Too many steps have been lost. Tim and Bruce are minus a step, people. Finley? Seven steps. Okay, there's no actual evidence for the first one, and the last one has been true since last century. But ... Bruce! What will we do, now that Mr. Potato Head isn't quite so quick on his ankle-snapping feet? I'm worried that pretty soon, all he'll be good for will be throwing elbows, funnelling opponents in to the bigs and taking the occasional spot-up jumper.

Wait...

Welcome to the team, Ime

Rand — Tue, 20 May 2008 12:57:03 -0000

Ime Udoka will be pleased to know that I am officially blessing him as a member of my beloved Spurs.

Mister H.A.T. (Horrible Arm Thing) just looks like a Spur - sure, he makes a few boneheaded turnovers, but when Game 7 was over and I glanced at the box score I was shocked to see that he had fewer than 15 points and 7 rebounds. He looked quietly fantastic, and more importantly he made the other guys look unsettled and off-balance. When Udoka is on the floor, the opponent is not having any fun. And that, cats and kittens, is the hallmark of good Spurs basketball.

Popovich: Not that much better

Rand — Fri, 02 May 2008 23:27:41 -0000

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ian_thomsen/05/02/weekly.countdown/1.html

"But it isn't like Gregg Popovich is that much a better coach than Byron Scott."

Here's a fun fact for you: Byron Scott has coached in 318 fewer games than Popovich ... and lost 14 more. Gregg Popovich has won more than twice as many games as Scott has. But he's lost fourteen fewer.

Scott has more fail than Pop. Pop has more than twice as much win as Scott.

How much is "that much" anyway?

Notes from the Wiz game

Rand — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 15:05:08 -0000

My karma-cup runneth over lately, in the form of a hot little blonde with a pair of tix for the Spurs-Wizards game, so I thought I'd share the love with a few observations:

Our new PG is a midget. A midget who drives the lane and misses ridiculous double-clutch layups. But he can knock it down from the outside, which is fortunate, because nobody else was striking from deep yesterday until Horry woke up. I will be calling him 'Midge' for the foreseeable future.

I think that Michael Finley is part of a running bet that Pop has with Buford. "I'll bet Mike can clang a half-dozen wide-open shots, and we'll still win." He did, and we did. I'm still not happy.

Robert Horry is like a pair of earmuffs - he may look silly and be completely useless most of the time, but when you're cold as hell he can come in very handy. Big Shot played the wily veteran card in the fourth quarter, shoving and grabbing and sinking the buckets that took the air out of the surging Wiz.

Ginobili's little dagger to put the game away for good? Sickening. I don't think he'd even landed after that little 'I know kung fu' mid-air turnaround jumper before I was screaming at him for not doing that the entire game.

Even with Arenas out, the Wizards aren't really all that bad a team. Blatche can flat-out play, when he decides to.

Isn't Ime Udoka supposed to be some kind of 3-point threat? No? Okay then.

Parker needs to come back. NOW. I'm kinda fond of Midge, actually, but Pop has mischeviously concocted way too many lineups in which nobody on the court is capable of scoring. This is not good.

Come to think of it, where was Tony? The aforementioned Hot Little Blonde was hoping for an Eva sighting, but I couldn't even spot the man himself.

Timmy has great abs. Seriously.

Help me, Sean Marks. You're my only hope.

Rand — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 14:11:47 -0000

From phxsuns.net:

"Kerr says he believes Sean Marks will surprise some people and be a bigger part of things."

For those of you keeping score at home, remember that over the past few years our absolute ownership of the Suns has had two primary root causes:

1/ They play no D.

2/ They only have a seven-man rotation, and by the time the playoffs roll around the run-and-funners are gasping like fat kids with three-pack-a-day habits.

As of now ... and the consensus appears to be that the Suns don't have the will or the wherewithal to make any major new additions ... the chief difference between the Suns we faced this year and the Suns we'll face next year will be:

1/ They've lost their best (only) post defender. Well, it's not like we've got the best post player in history or anything. Can Duncan shoot 86% for an entire playoff series? Can Amare foul out before the opening tip hits the hardwood?

2/ Their bench is no deeper than it was - and they've swapped out a rugged workhorse for Grant 'Mr. Glass' Hill. It's quite conceivable that we could end up seeing a five-man rotation, resulting in the 47th minute of a hard-fought contest turning into a quintuple coronary that leaves the court looking like the final scene of Hamlet.

Enter Sean Marks?

You know, all of a sudden the idea of bringing back a championship squad without any major roster changes doesn't seem all that bad.

Duhon for Scola?

Rand — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:15:21 -0000

http://fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/11451

I am simultaneously hopeful and terrified about this. On the one hand, I would LOVE to see Duhon in SA - I've always liked him, he's got great spirit and a great team mentality. Plus, I don't know how to say no to anything that gives us an actual PG to spell our newlywed Frenchman.

On the other hand, make no mistake: this is a $0.50-for-a-dollar trade. I'm convinced that Scola can be an All-Star if he ever comes over here, and (much as I'd love to eat these words) I can't see Duhon ever being more than a solid rotation guy.

Of course, a solid rotation guy might just get us another championship next year. And then screw up our salary situation next summer. What the hell? Will somebody please tell me what to think about this? Update [2007-7-18 10:17:49 by Rand]: I've made up my mind, and am wholly in favor of sending Scola to Chicago to bring Duhon to SA. Funny how finding a two-solid-players-for-absolute-dick trade in your Cheerios can help to focus your mind.

Suns fans demand Beno!

Rand — Wed, 30 May 2007 18:17:39 -0000

Well, kind of.

Is it stupid to be reading online predictions of how the deep picks in the '07 draft will play out? Yes. But then, if I were intelligent I wouldn't have a job that allowed me to spend my afternoon reading online predictions of how the deep picks in the '07 draft will play out. So, anyhow:

HoopsHype has come out with its $0.02 for the draft, and I wanted to see how the Spurs mock-fared. HH stuck us at #28 with Morris Almond - whose bio indicates that he's 'not an amazing athlete' but his 'intangibles are outstanding'. This would cause me to jab myself in the head with a ballpoint pen if I didn't know that the Spurs are more likely to grab the rights to an illiterate nineteen-year-old raised by aye-ayes in the jungles of Madagascar than some guy named Morris Almond. Aye-ayes have tremendous upside potential.

What interested me more was the faux-pick directly behind ours - PHX at #29. To help us ignorami figure the draft out for ourselves, HH gives each candidate a comparison-player, an NBAer whose game theirs most resembles. And with the twenty-ninth pick the Phoenix Suns select Petteri Koponen, a Finnish PG who you may know as the poor man's ... Beno Udrih.

Yes. They went there.

Please, this has to happen. And Koponen has to play. So that I can watch Suns games and remark idly: "Well, if you can't have Beno Udrih..."

http://www.hoopshype.com/draft.htm

New Spurs Identity - Suggestions?

Rand — Tue, 29 May 2007 17:38:55 -0000

I love my Spurs. I love them just the way they are, and I hope they never change. That said, I hate that it's impossible to read about my boys without having to sit through all the tired old crap about how 'boring' the team is.

Sure, we can rail all we want against the media and the total failure of imagination it demonstrates when it comes to covering San Antonio. But if we really want to end all this nonsense, we need to find a new story for the media to tell - one that doesn't compromise what we love about the Spurs, but which gives non-fans something to chew on.

Now there are a variety of different 'personalities' basketball teams can have. There's the high-flying 'Showtime' team (Suns), the star-vehicles (Cavs, Lakers), the blue-collar brawlers (Pistons), the up-and-coming youngsters (Bulls, Jazz), and the various fascinating train wrecks (Heat, Nets, etc.). But the Spurs can't really fit into any of those niches - they play too much D, their star's too busy playing basketball to make T-Mobile commercials, and they're just too traditionally reliable. My suggestion: the Surrealist Spurs!

Picture it - Oberto squares up for the opening tip, then pauses to shake a flock of doves from his flowing mane. After a particularly nasty spin-move to the hole, Tony just keeps spinning and spinning, up the tunnel and out of sight. Manu falls to the court as usual - and, on arising, screams out "I am reborn!" prior to tearfully embracing the opponent who bumped him. Jacques Vaughn disappears and is never heard from or mentioned again. And Timmy? Timmy says nothing. To anyone. Ever.

It would work, I tell you. The Spurs just keep playing their own incredibly successful brand of basketball - and the first time Francisco Elson shows up to a press conference in the nude is the last we have to hear about the 'boring Spurs'.