For a few years I have harped on the great writing and analysis at Baseballhq.com.  The site is authored by Ron Shandler, a long time sabermetrician who was a key talent evaluator for the Cardinals during the world series run.

The last 2 weeks, Shandler has provided interesting breakdowns on Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, and Scott Kazmir.  I happen to agree with his analyses on all three.

With regard to Jason Bartlett, HQ notes that his 2009 breakout is actually not a breakout at all, but a continuation of the second half of 2008:

Analysis of extra base hits and home runs shows Bartlett had a career best performance in the second half of 2008. While his current line drive rate is  unsustainable, if he can keep it around 25% he will put up a career year. His contact rate has hardly fluctuated at all throughout his career.  But his ability to make authoritative contact has increased dramatically since mid season 2008.  Expect his batting average to normalize around .300.

Combine his new found offensive production with his + Defensive skills, and you have a player truly worthy of team MVP consideration again if it were not for the amazing start by Longoria.

Ben Zobrist has exhibited amazing power growth for 3 consecutive seasons. While the current 60+% fly ball rate and 25% hr/fly rate will not be sustained, HQ believes his base line power growth is real.  HQ also predicted his increased batting average, as his BABIP early in the year was abnormally low for his contact rate and GB/LD/F ratios. HQ boldly claims, "We have yet to see the best from Ben Zobrist," and that his baseline skills should continue to increase with added playing time at the age of 27.  Zorilla fans rejoice.

Scott Kazmir was identified prior to the season by HQ as being a highly risky bet for both fantasy leagues and the real world Rays.  A rapidly declining K/9 rate is the biggest red flag.  Kazmir struck out 10.4 per 9 in 2007.  HQ noted the drop to 9.8 per 9 in 2008, coincident with a much higher walk rate.  The bottom has dropped out in 2009 so far, with the K rate down to around 7 per 9, while the walk rate has exploded.  Combined with the much talked about drop in velocity, HQ sees little reason for optimism going forward.  Though they do suggest this is by far the worst we will have seen from Kazmir, whose expected ERA (based on his peripherals) is a full run below is actual ERA. 

Somewhat of a correction should be expected soon. But unless his walk rate is cut by at least 50%, and his K rate increases back toward previous levels, the days of Kazmir being considered a "staff ace" are long gone.

The Sunday afternoon loss the Rays suffered to Chicago belongs squarely on the heads of the umpiring crew.  Yes, the call was horrible and completely gave the game to Chicago in what was shaping up to be a fun extra inning tilt between 2 quality teams.

However there is no way AJ Pierzinski should have been anywhere near second base in the first place.  While I disagree with the ESPN "take" that BJ single handedly cost them the game, I for one have grown tired of having to make excuses for BJ's seemingly absent minded play at times.

Watching multiple replays, it is clear BJ again took too much for granted.  He took multiple steps before throwing the baseball, which showed he was not aware of the potential for Pierzinski to head for second base.  Secondly, he put very little on the throw.  If BJ guns it, with his tremendous arm, there is a play at second without question.  He didn't seem aware of the situation.

I could defend BJ here and rip Gross and Zobrist for not helping him out.  After all, they should have been yelling to BJ to gun it into second because it is easier for them to see the situation developing.  Iwamura and Bartlett should be doing the same from the infield.  But ultimately this falls back on BJ.  He has to be aware of the developing situation, and cannot count on everyone else to tell him what to do.

One week ago, BJ is apologizing to his team for a bizarre base running snafu.  Twice within the last month, BJ is benched for not running out a ground ball.  You can point your finger at the media for over blowing the situation.  You can even make the claim that Maddon selectively punished BJ for doing what a few of his teammates have "gotten away with" this season.  But when Cliff Floyd is expressing his concerns about BJ not running out plays, you better know this a real problem and the entire clubhouse is affected by it.

I'm not here to point the finger and blame BJ for losses.  But it's time for BJ to freaking wake up and do more than just apologize.  The Rays are the front running team in the toughest division in baseball headed into the end of August, and there will be wars to win in September if we are to hold on.  We need BJ's head in the game on every play, and we need him to swing the bat with some semblance of what he was last season.  The current OBP is nice, but the power numbers are too far down for someone of his talent.  This kid should be putting the fear of God into opposing pitchers.

Edwin Jackson pitched what would likely be considered a gem by the general sports media, giving up only 1 run on the road to Seattle.  However E-Jax is in some ways less dominating than he was late last year.  If the Rays can sell high on the 24-year old during the off season for reasonable return, I think they absolutely should do so.

To confirm Jackson's skill set has not been as solid as his ERA, I turned to the analysis of Ron Shandler's Baseball HQ website.  While Shandler is most known for his expertise in Fantasy Baseball (creator of Tout Wars and multiple time champion), his research qualifies him as a new generation Bill James.  One of the first to break down skills into component analysis, Shandler's research can be turned to with confidence.

Whereas Baseball Prospectus has PERA, Shandler has XERA (Expected ERA).  XERA is based on proprietary formula which takes into account individual peripheral analysis (K/9, BB/9, K/BB) while also considering GB/LD/F percentages, BABIP, and strand rate (how many runners score after reaching base).  When ERA and XERA significantly diverge, a regression becomes increasingly likely.

Coming into Sunday, Jackson has been averaging a mediocre 5.2 K/9, while walking 3.9 per 9.  This yields a rather dismal K/BB ratio of about 1.3.  More troubling is Jackson's K/BB ratio for the last 31 days is down to 1.0, with his K/9 down to 4.5.  His strand rate for the season is 74% (a good rule of thumb is to expect 70-72%), but over the last 2 games the strand rate is at an unrealistically elevated 80%.

Jackson's expected ERA (XERA) has risen to 5.50 for the season, nearly 1.3 runs per 9 more than his actual ERA.  For the last 31 days, his XERA is even worse at 6.22.  A correction is due.

Yikes.  This really sucks for the rest of the AL East.

Currently being reported on Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com...

• Marlins get Manny Ramirez, one prospect (Red Sox), and cash (likely covering Ramirez’s remaining salary)

• Pirates get Jeremy Hermida and three prospects (two Marlins, one Red Sox)

• Red Sox get Jason Bay and John Grabow

This trade has not yet been made final, but I have to say that a gain of Bay vs a loss of Manny is a big win for Boston.  I'd much rather have Bay at this stage of their careers.  My opinion of the trade may change once we find out who the Sox are losing for prospects.

My guess is we will stand pat with our outfield situation, unless we make a minor move for a "decent" right handed platoon bat to replace Gomes.  There are interesting options coming through the minor leagues.  One appears to be ready now, others are 1 to 3 years away.  Let's take a look at the options and open up commentary on them.

Justin Ruggiano (26)

AAA Durham  .911 OPS, 9 HR

Strong outfield arm, decent range, good bat speed, decent power, but a high strike out rate historically.  This seems like a no brainer.  I cannot imagine Ruggiano not out performing Gomes, so call him up already.

Sergio Pedroza (24)

AA Montgomery  .716 OPS 4 HR

Athletic build with moderate power and bat speed.  Historically very good plate discipline, but a higher strike out rate than you would like to see.  Pedroza is scuffling this season for whatever reason, after posting 2 consecutive .900 OPS seasons.  He does not appear to be ready, but everything may "click" soon given his past performance.

Ryan Royster (22)

A Vero Beach .665 OPS 7 HR

What is going on with Royster?  After a monster 2007 in which he slugged 30 HR and posted a .982 OPS, Royster is struggling at High A.  A strong athlete with good power and bat speed, but poor plate discipline. So far he is not performing at High A and obviously has some holes in his game to close up. But an exciting bat.  If he improves his discipline, he could move up fast and be just what we need.

Desmond Jennings (21)

A Vero Beach  .772 OPS 2 HR in 85 AB

Good athlete with plus speed. Good plate discipline and bat speed, but not much power. Projects into an excellent lead off hitter. We need more power in the lineup, and it is not likely to come from Jennings. But if he develops as expected, he would be the perfect replacement for Carl Crawford in LF, and would likely deliver better OBP and outfield range than CC. CC would likely command a high price in a trade, as the MLB as a whole overvalues him.

John Matulia (21)

A Vero Beach  .759 OPS 2 HR

Matulia is having a fine season and showing up on more radars. Again there is not much power here and that seems to be what the organization most needs to compete with Boston and NY long term. A long way off, so let's see how he develops.

BaseballHQ (subscription required), fronted by Ron Shandler of Baseball Forecaster and Fantasyland fame, has interesting takes on Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine this week.

HQ took apart Edwin Jackson's statistics, and noted most of his problems come down to focus.  They feel E-Jax is close to breaking out and anchoring the Tampa Bay rotation.  Why?

Feed on these statistics:

With runners on base, Jackson appears to become more intense and focussed on what he needs to do.  Some pitchers get flustered in these situations, but not E-Jax.

With runners on base:  Edwin Jackson 6.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9.  Very impressive!

With the bases empty, it almost seems like E-Jax doesn't bear down enough, and loses focus:  6.1 K/9 vs. 6.6 BB/9.  Terrible!

E-Jax is clearly our most controversial pitcher, at least among us.  Either you think he is wasting our time, or you think he is close to fulfilling his incredible promise.  Interesting that BaseballHQ thinks E-Jax is close to turning the corner and becoming a front line starter.  They note he needs to find an out pitch against lefties too.

Also interesting is their analysis of Andy Sonnanstine.  Statistically, Sonnanstine's focus seems to be a mirror opposite of Jackson.  Sonnanstine's K/BB ratio is twice as high with the bases empty, as it is with runners on.  Does he have problems working out of the stretch?  Is it the pressure which causes him to lose focus?  If so, the last thing we need is for him to be a late inning reliever.

I don't dislike Sonny.  I still see hope despite his lack of velocity, and his propensity to leave his pitches up as meatballs.  But since the second half of last season, I have felt Jackson has shown more promise.  If only he could keep his focus throughout an entire game.

Another off-season and the great MLB talent flux continues to flow toward New York, New York.

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I made the 70 minute trip down to Scranton to watch the Durham Bulls take down Scranton 8-1 tonight.  Jeff Niemann got the start for Durham and threw 7 solid innings.  By my count he gave up 1 earned run, scattered 6 hits, struck out 5 or 6, and hit a batter.

The Bulls got out of a bases loaded 1 out jam in the 7th when Niemann got a ground ball.  Ben Zobrist made an excellent play on the ball, and turned a 6-4-3 DP (Zobrist-Johnson-Bankston) to thwart a rally attempt.

Speaking of Zobrist, he was great at shortstop.  He showed good range and a very soft glove.  Ben made a few difficult plays look routine.  More good news is his batting average is nearly up to .250.  Remember it was at the Mendoza Line a month ago.  He also has 4 HR's in 85 AB prior to tonight's game.  Zobrist had one hit and walked 2 times (Mr OBP returns).

The star of the night was CF Dustin Mohr.  Mohr doubled and hit 2 home runs.  His first HR was truly a monster shot.  The CF wall measures 408, and Mohr hit it just left of straight away center way, way, way over the wall.  If you have MILB.TV check it out.  I saw someone out there with measuring tape after the ball landed.  

Niemann looked good.  He looked like he was a step above what the Yankees were used to seeing, and he got a lot of called third strikes against baffled batters.  Scott Dohmann and Seth McClung finished the 8th and 9th innings, respectively, without giving up a hit.

McClung was still McClung.  His stuff was missing Yankees bats, but his control was fleeting as usual.  He walked a batter with 2 outs which left me groaning.  The game was academic at that point, but I wanted to see him throwing the ball over the plate.  Granted he might be a better option at this point than some of the guys we have at the MLB level.  But his sub 2.00 ERA should be looked at critically.  He has walked 20 batters in 34.1 innings through tonight - which is really bad.  Same old Seth unfortunately.

Guzman had a good smash hit, but he also looked lost a couple of times and struck out at least once.  Bankston looked "okay."  Certainly not MLB ready, and does not project to be an impact guy at this point.  Jonny Gomes hit DH tonight out of the cleanup position.  He walked once, and I think he hit a single too.

It was a helluva fun time. The SWB Yanks have a nice stadium, my family had a good view of the game, and I got to see some good young talent on the Bulls.

For those of you with MLB.TV, watch tonight's Yankees-White Sox game (the YES feed).  Move ahead to the bottom of the 4th, with a man on first, and listen to the Yankee announcer's commentary on the Devil Rays.

First, it is obvious they are desperate for a big name outfielder with speed, and they start making an allusion to possibly making a run for Carl Crawford.

The assertion is made that Tampa needs to let some of thier outfielders go, to "give them a chance to win somewhere."  Also, they make the argument that we are desperate for pitching, which is why we need to trade some of these outfielders ASAP.

Apparently they didn't watch JP Howell, they don't know who Kazmir and Shields are, nor are they aware that Sonnanstine is up.  And I guess they also don't know about the 3 more starters waiting down in Durham for their chance, nor about the fact that in 3 days we will own David Price.  Sorry, but what we need is another power bat in the heart of the order, and bullpen help.  And none of that is worthy of Carl Crawford.

Something about their commentary really bugged me. You know how Yankees fans are - basically they believe it is their God Given Right to have everyone's best players by opening their wallets. Too bad NY.  You aren't getting Carl Crawford.  Live with Melky and Godzilla in left.

Mitch Talbot threw 8 strong innings today to lead Durham to a 1-0 win at Rochester.  Talbot gave up only 2 hits over his 8 innings of work.  He also struck out 5, and walked only 2.

After an ugly start to the season, Talbot has been quietly pitching well.  His ERA is down to 6.00.  

Jon Switzer and Seth McClung combined to finish Rochester in the 9th.

Also worth noting...Ben Zobrist walked twice, but still cannot find his swing.  He was 0x2 and is hitting a shade over .200.