SB Nation User Blog: RayFanNY

BaseballHQ: Sonny and E-Jax

RayFanNY — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 06:56:12 -0000

BaseballHQ (subscription required), fronted by Ron Shandler of Baseball Forecaster and Fantasyland fame, has interesting takes on Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine this week.

HQ took apart Edwin Jackson's statistics, and noted most of his problems come down to focus. They feel E-Jax is close to breaking out and anchoring the Tampa Bay rotation. Why?

Feed on these statistics:

With runners on base, Jackson appears to become more intense and focussed on what he needs to do. Some pitchers get flustered in these situations, but not E-Jax.

With runners on base: Edwin Jackson 6.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9. Very impressive!

With the bases empty, it almost seems like E-Jax doesn't bear down enough, and loses focus: 6.1 K/9 vs. 6.6 BB/9. Terrible!

E-Jax is clearly our most controversial pitcher, at least among us. Either you think he is wasting our time, or you think he is close to fulfilling his incredible promise. Interesting that BaseballHQ thinks E-Jax is close to turning the corner and becoming a front line starter. They note he needs to find an out pitch against lefties too.

Also interesting is their analysis of Andy Sonnanstine. Statistically, Sonnanstine's focus seems to be a mirror opposite of Jackson. Sonnanstine's K/BB ratio is twice as high with the bases empty, as it is with runners on. Does he have problems working out of the stretch? Is it the pressure which causes him to lose focus? If so, the last thing we need is for him to be a late inning reliever.

I don't dislike Sonny. I still see hope despite his lack of velocity, and his propensity to leave his pitches up as meatballs. But since the second half of last season, I have felt Jackson has shown more promise. If only he could keep his focus throughout an entire game.

Same old story in the Bronx

RayFanNY — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 11:23:22 -0000

Another off-season and the great MLB talent flux continues to flow toward New York, New York.

Another off-season, and again the Yankees are actively pursuing the top talent in baseball at any price.

Remember all of the talk during the early Fall about how the Yankees were looking to cut payroll? And that they would not pursue A-Rod if he opted out?

Well that didn't take long. Not only did the Yankees shell out somewhere in the neighborhood of $27 million per year for an absurdly long contract to get A-Rod (not counting all of the incentives), as far as I could tell the Yankees were the only team in the running. At what point did the Cubs, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, and Dodgers even dream of tendering an offer?

Now the Yankees are on the verge of taking the premiere pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, off of the Twins. For Robinson Cano or Melky Cabrera? Are you kidding me? I have lost a lot of respect for Santana, who is essentially leaving a fan base who loves him to play for a team which always buys everyone's talent. And for what? An extra year of contract length? An extra $5 million per year? What exactly will you do with that money, Johan? Was $80 million over 4 years not enough for you to live on?

What drives me insane is, much like the A-Rod signing, that the Yankees are the only ones in serious talks with Santana. Why aren't the Red Sox at least negotiating with the purpose of driving the cost up for the Yankees? Couldn't the Mets use a front line starter? The Dodgers? Texas? The Cubs? Why are the Yankees the only team capable of taking this phenom off the Twins' hands?

I don't know if I am more disgusted with the Yankees for once again hogging all of the available talent, or with MLB for allowing it to happen year after year. This isn't competition.

Watched Durham slam Yankees 8-1

RayFanNY — Sun, 10 Jun 2007 03:37:20 -0000

I made the 70 minute trip down to Scranton to watch the Durham Bulls take down Scranton 8-1 tonight. Jeff Niemann got the start for Durham and threw 7 solid innings. By my count he gave up 1 earned run, scattered 6 hits, struck out 5 or 6, and hit a batter.

The Bulls got out of a bases loaded 1 out jam in the 7th when Niemann got a ground ball. Ben Zobrist made an excellent play on the ball, and turned a 6-4-3 DP (Zobrist-Johnson-Bankston) to thwart a rally attempt.

Speaking of Zobrist, he was great at shortstop. He showed good range and a very soft glove. Ben made a few difficult plays look routine. More good news is his batting average is nearly up to .250. Remember it was at the Mendoza Line a month ago. He also has 4 HR's in 85 AB prior to tonight's game. Zobrist had one hit and walked 2 times (Mr OBP returns).

The star of the night was CF Dustin Mohr. Mohr doubled and hit 2 home runs. His first HR was truly a monster shot. The CF wall measures 408, and Mohr hit it just left of straight away center way, way, way over the wall. If you have MILB.TV check it out. I saw someone out there with measuring tape after the ball landed.

Niemann looked good. He looked like he was a step above what the Yankees were used to seeing, and he got a lot of called third strikes against baffled batters. Scott Dohmann and Seth McClung finished the 8th and 9th innings, respectively, without giving up a hit.

McClung was still McClung. His stuff was missing Yankees bats, but his control was fleeting as usual. He walked a batter with 2 outs which left me groaning. The game was academic at that point, but I wanted to see him throwing the ball over the plate. Granted he might be a better option at this point than some of the guys we have at the MLB level. But his sub 2.00 ERA should be looked at critically. He has walked 20 batters in 34.1 innings through tonight - which is really bad. Same old Seth unfortunately.

Guzman had a good smash hit, but he also looked lost a couple of times and struck out at least once. Bankston looked "okay." Certainly not MLB ready, and does not project to be an impact guy at this point. Jonny Gomes hit DH tonight out of the cleanup position. He walked once, and I think he hit a single too.

It was a helluva fun time. The SWB Yanks have a nice stadium, my family had a good view of the game, and I got to see some good young talent on the Bulls.

You want to get ticked off?

RayFanNY — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 00:56:47 -0000

For those of you with MLB.TV, watch tonight's Yankees-White Sox game (the YES feed). Move ahead to the bottom of the 4th, with a man on first, and listen to the Yankee announcer's commentary on the Devil Rays.

First, it is obvious they are desperate for a big name outfielder with speed, and they start making an allusion to possibly making a run for Carl Crawford.

The assertion is made that Tampa needs to let some of thier outfielders go, to "give them a chance to win somewhere." Also, they make the argument that we are desperate for pitching, which is why we need to trade some of these outfielders ASAP.

Apparently they didn't watch JP Howell, they don't know who Kazmir and Shields are, nor are they aware that Sonnanstine is up. And I guess they also don't know about the 3 more starters waiting down in Durham for their chance, nor about the fact that in 3 days we will own David Price. Sorry, but what we need is another power bat in the heart of the order, and bullpen help. And none of that is worthy of Carl Crawford.

Something about their commentary really bugged me. You know how Yankees fans are - basically they believe it is their God Given Right to have everyone's best players by opening their wallets. Too bad NY. You aren't getting Carl Crawford. Live with Melky and Godzilla in left.

Talbot blanks Rochester

RayFanNY — Mon, 28 May 2007 02:47:10 -0000

Mitch Talbot threw 8 strong innings today to lead Durham to a 1-0 win at Rochester. Talbot gave up only 2 hits over his 8 innings of work. He also struck out 5, and walked only 2.

After an ugly start to the season, Talbot has been quietly pitching well. His ERA is down to 6.00.

Jon Switzer and Seth McClung combined to finish Rochester in the 9th.

Also worth noting...Ben Zobrist walked twice, but still cannot find his swing. He was 0x2 and is hitting a shade over .200.

Nobody Should be Disappointed

RayFanNY — Sun, 13 May 2007 02:07:11 -0000

As I have engaged in several debates with other Rays fans on the boards, nobody should be disappointed now that the Rays are in last place and on pace for another horrible W-L record.

The time for disappointment was months ago, when one of the most profitable teams in baseball (according to Forbes), decided in their infinite wisdom to not improve this baseball team in any meaningful way, despite coming off a distant last place finish. Rather it decided to stick it out with a ridiculously low salary structure and reap more profits.

I have debated in numerous threads why the Rays are clearly worse than the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles. Why anyone would think differently is beyond my comprehension. These teams finish ahead of us every year, they beat us every year, and we still have not attempted to bring in better players.

Yes I know...the future! My argument is that an attitude like that will always make our future 3 years away. Chew on this:

We have 3 of the worst starters in all of Major League Baseball in our rotation. Not just 3 of the worst in our system, or 3 of the worst in our division, but in all of major league baseball. Seo, Fossum, Jackson. All terrible, all depended upon to pitch for us. No other team would consider putting 3 pitchers this bad in their rotation, let alone expect its fans to pay good money to watch them perform.

Even if Kazmir and Shields were near perfect, we would still be doomed to lose 3 out of every 5 games because of who our bottom 3 starters are. And even if Kazmir and Sheilds are perfect, we follow up our sorry rotation with arguably the worst pen in all of baseball. There are AAA pens which our superior to ours. So leave it to them to ensure we lose win-able games.

Which brings us to our offense. This is why I vehemently argued Wigginton was not sufficient at first base, and that we needed a real stick with true power there. There is far too much pressure on youngsters like Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes to carry our team in the power department. Upton was, and is, bound to cool off. We are killing the confidence of Young and Dukes by putting the full burden on their shoulders! They should be developing as players and learning about plate discipline, not worrying about picking up the team and putting it on their backs. A great example of stick we could have picked up in the free agent market a few years ago is Lyle Overbay, who killed us again today as a Blue Jay. And he is maybe the 6th, 7th, or 8th best hitting first baseman in the American League. But we never made a run at him. And then we settled for a platoon of Wigginton, Pena, and well I guess Cantu.

So here we are again in last place. The 2 teams everyone here said we were better than, Toronto and Baltimore, just destroyed us over the last several meetings. We are on pace to win 63 and lose 99.

You should not be disappointed. There was plenty of time for that months ago. Now you will just have to live with the team ownership "paid" for, and once again continue waiting for the next rookie to ride in on his white horse and save our franchise from humiliation, or even contraction.

Until we as fans hold this team and its ownership to a higher standard, there will be no light at the end of the tunnel. It's time to get angry. It's time to demand things change.

Pitching VORP

RayFanNY — Fri, 04 May 2007 07:35:21 -0000

Here are Baseball Prospectus' VORP projections for 2007, and also the current Actual VORP numbers multiplied by 5.75 (162 games / 28 games). Just like early season batting averages, VORP will regress toward the mean once a larger sample of innings are recorded.

Kazmir Projected 27.0 / Actual 29.3
Shields 20.6 / 41.4
Fossum 9.6 / -51.2
Jackson -2.5 / -56.9
Seo 5.0 / -75.3

VORP refers to "Value over Replacement Player," where a rating of zero refers to a player who can be replaced by any typical non-prospect call-up, or unwanted free agent. A below zero number means the player is actually worse than "any old pickup." Good grief - we have 3 of them.

The pleasant surprise is obviously Shields, although BP projected him highly to begin with. He probably will hit rough patches and see his numbers compress toward the projection, but he could still be a 25-30 VORP guy this season.

The big disappointment has to be Fossum. I still think he will improve this season...how could he not?

Seo looks washed up. Jackson was projected to be worse than replacement level, and so far he has lived down to BP's expectations.

VORP shows in numbers exactly what we have been discussing this season. We have two guys who, when they pitch, make us a pretty good team. And we have 3 guys who, when they pitch, make us one of the worst teams in baseball. We need to replace 2 of the 3 before year's end, and at least one of them as soon as humanly possible.

Let's take a look at BP's projected VORP ratings for some of our pitching prospects. These ratings refer to what the players would contribute if pitching in the majors:

J.P. Howell 13.1
Jeff Niemann 4.4
Jason Hammell 10.6
Andrew Sonnanstine 11.2
Wade Davis -3.2 (considered clearly not ready)

Hammell and Sonnanstine look the best out of the gate in 2007. Howell does not look bad, but still a bit disappointing. Niemann has been tough for BP to project due to injuries, so keep watching his peripheral stats.