We are out of the playoff race -- according to coolstandings.com are odds at capturing the wild card sit below 5%. At this point, it is time to start planning for next season. Not only does this entail evaluating minor leaguers who have a legitimate shot at contributing next season by giving them a few ML starts in September, it should also include resting proven assets who have been overworked.

Over the past two season James Shields has pitched 426 innings. Matt Garza has pitched  386 innings.  Both of those numbers are high. Now, as we all know, determining the IP limit per season on a pitcher if far from a science. However, at this point I think it is fair to say that shutting down both Shields and Garza for the rest of the season won't hurt them and has the distinct possibility of helping them, and the team, going into 2010. 

In their place, I would like the rotation to look something like this:

Niemann

Price

Davis

Talbot/Sonny

Hernandez/Cromer

I know this isn't sexy, but it is best for the team. It allows proven players to rest weary arms and gives the front office the ability to evaluate high-level minor league players who could contribute in the bullpen next year and who cost roughly half of a typical relief FA (i.e. Joe Nelson, Shouse, etc).

I have seen a number of people on the board mention that it seems like every Rays pitcher's velocity is down this season. So I decided to investigate a) whether this is true and b) possible reasons for the decline. To test the former I gathered fastball velocity data for all current rays pitchers from this year and last year -- even if they weren't on the team last season. In order to more fully understand why there has been a decline in velocity among Rays pitchers I also gathered velocity info for rays 2008 pitchers who have moved on to different teams. The results presented below are pretty striking.

For a much nicer version of this spreadsheet please navigate to: http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=d2qgvjr_20dqg7bkfm

For some reason I can't seem to paste the image into the post.

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From the defense to the offense it was an awful night all around.

Taking the cake for most pathetic though was the crowd. This is a team in the midst of a pennant race for the first time in its history and there were empty seats everywhere! I don't care what the announced attendance was since that number is always manipulated; there is no way more than 13K fans were in the trop.

I'm sick of hearing the excuses for miserable attendance. It is simply embarrassing to see that many open seats.

In conclusion, the Bay Area should be ashamed of itself.

I have been rather disappointed in Pena this year. Were my expectations too high based on last year? After last year's amazing performance, I thought Pena might regress somewhat, but I was not expecting this.

 OPS 2002-2006 = .789

 OPS 2007 = 1.037

 OPS 2008 = .760

It seems to me that last year is the outlier. There is no evidence that suggests that Pena will ever play as well as he did last year.  He is about as good this year as he was his entire career before last season. This year is the real Carlos Pena.

I also tend to think of Pena as a run-producer. But I anecdotally seem to notice him sucking a lot with RISP this season. To evaluate a player as a run producer I like to look at slugging percentage with men in scoring position. I know some of you may frown on this, but I think it can be useful. I want guys to drive in runs with basehits when there are RISP -- especially clean-up hitters (or #5 hitter as it may be).

SLUG W./RISP 2002-2006 = .454

SLUG W/RISP 2007 = .568

SLUG W/RISP 2008 = .524

While Pena is slugging less than he did last year with RISP he still is doing a better job than he was before 2007. I guess a lot of this is in my head.

I also anecdotally observed that Pena was constantly striking out this season in important situation. His K/AB w/RISP are as follows:

2002-2006 = .30

2007 = .34

2008 = .39

So, yes Pena is striking out more often (5-10%) with RISP then he has in years past.

So what does all this mean. I have no idea, but I tend to think that the Carlos Pena we see right now is the Carlos Pena we are going to get for the rest of the year and for 2009 and 2010.

He does play excellent defense which increases his value to the team. However, I am beginning to doubt if the contract -- which I believe was 3 yrs for 24 mil -- is going to end up being a good one for the Rays. Since the average 1B salary is 5.4 million, I would have to say that it is looking like an ok signing. Carlos has been just about league average this season and historically (except for 2007) and he is being paid 2.5 mil more per year than the average 1B salary. His exceptional defense may make up for that 2.5 million gap.

Not trying to be a Carlos hater. He is one of my favorite players. I am just trying to objectively evaluate how valuable he will be for the Rays over the next 2.5 years.