SB Nation User Blog: RaysTheRoof

Fastball Velocity: An Analysis

RaysTheRoof — Fri, 15 May 2009 22:23:51 -0000

I have seen a number of people on the board mention that it seems like every Rays pitcher's velocity is down this season. So I decided to investigate a) whether this is true and b) possible reasons for the decline. To test the former I gathered fastball velocity data for all current rays pitchers from this year and last year -- even if they weren't on the team last season. In order to more fully understand why there has been a decline in velocity among Rays pitchers I also gathered velocity info for rays 2008 pitchers who have moved on to different teams. The results presented below are pretty striking.

For a much nicer version of this spreadsheet please navigate to: http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=d2qgvjr_20dqg7bkfm

For some reason I can't seem to paste the image into the post.

Pitcher	2009	2008	Difference
Jackson	94.5	93.8	0.7
Miller	86.8	86.3	0.5
Hammell	91.7	91.7	0
Niemann	91.2	91.3	-0.1
Shields	90.2	90.4	-0.2
Sonny	86.8	87	-0.2
Shouse	80.2	80.5	-0.3
Garza	92.6	93.2	-0.6
Percival	90.4	91.4	-1
Howell	85.4	86.4	-1
Wheeler	87.8	88.9	-1.1
Cormier	89	90.2	-1.2
Balfour	92.7	94.6	-1.9
Kazmir	89.8	91.7	-1.9
Nelson	87.1	89.6	-2.5

All three pitchers to have gained velocity or stayed the same from last year to this year are ones who are no longer on the team (Jackson, Miller, Hammell). Every pitcher that the Rays acquired or those that stayed with the team lost velocity. There does not seem to be an obvious difference between newly acquired pitchers versus those who were here last year. For instance, Balfour, Nelson, and Kazmir have all lost at least 1.9mph of velocity. Again for a nice version of this spreadsheet go to: http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=d2qgvjr_20dqg7bkfm

Possible explanations:

1. The pitch f/x gun at the Trop is slow. This would mean that there should be obvious differences in home/away splits for both Rays and visiting pitchers. I am working on getting this data.

2. Pitchers weren't used enough during spring training. If this is the case, staff velocity should pick up as the season progresses.

3. Direct instruction from the pitching coaches to throw softer. This seems unlikely.

Explanations that can be ruled out:

1. The extended run into the postseason tired the staff out. If this was the case velocity should be down in returning pitchers and those who left the team, but not new acquisitions.

Any thoughts?

Question for those of you who have had mlb.tv:After a game is over and it becomes archived can you...

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 04:01:36 -0000

Question for those of you who have had mlb.tv:After a game is over and it becomes archived can you download it to your hard drive?
thanks.

Nate Silver is the man

RaysTheRoof — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:14:18 -0000

Nate Silver is the man

He nailed the popular vote. And assuming the Missouri holds for McCain and NC holds for Obama, the only state he missed on was Indiana. Absolutely amazing! Congrats to all the guys over at 538

I need 2 tickets to game 1. If you have anything near face value let me know. You can check my...

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 22:51:24 -0000

I need 2 tickets to game 1. If you have anything near face value let me know. You can check my profile -- I've been around all season. email me bjourdanwhite@yahoo.com if you have anything.

Thanks

i have a password to buy alcs tickets that I am not going to use. If you need it (and are a Rays...

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:05:44 -0000

i have a password to buy alcs tickets that I am not going to use. If you need it (and are a Rays fan of course) email me a sportsindeed(at)yahoo.com and I will hook you up.

Make sure you email soon, the ticket buying start at 9 am.

Pathetic

RaysTheRoof — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 04:37:39 -0000

From the defense to the offense it was an awful night all around.

Taking the cake for most pathetic though was the crowd. This is a team in the midst of a pennant race for the first time in its history and there were empty seats everywhere! I don't care what the announced attendance was since that number is always manipulated; there is no way more than 13K fans were in the trop.

I'm sick of hearing the excuses for miserable attendance. It is simply embarrassing to see that many open seats.

In conclusion, the Bay Area should be ashamed of itself.

two tremendous youtube videos about the rays: AL East Wars (this one is...

RaysTheRoof — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 05:23:35 -0000

two tremendous youtube videos about the rays:

AL East Wars (this one is hilarious)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r58N4UvsOwk&NR=1

Excellent theme song some local rappers made:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe_YB0kc8b0

check them out

Salas is Up and Lobstein is Signed

RaysTheRoof — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:47:45 -0000

Salas is Up and Lobstein is Signed

Per Marc Topkin @ The Heater

2007 Carlos Pena - Fluke?

RaysTheRoof — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 05:31:35 -0000

I have been rather disappointed in Pena this year. Were my expectations too high based on last year? After last year's amazing performance, I thought Pena might regress somewhat, but I was not expecting this.

OPS 2002-2006 = .789

OPS 2007 = 1.037

OPS 2008 = .760

It seems to me that last year is the outlier. There is no evidence that suggests that Pena will ever play as well as he did last year. He is about as good this year as he was his entire career before last season. This year is the real Carlos Pena.

I also tend to think of Pena as a run-producer. But I anecdotally seem to notice him sucking a lot with RISP this season. To evaluate a player as a run producer I like to look at slugging percentage with men in scoring position. I know some of you may frown on this, but I think it can be useful. I want guys to drive in runs with basehits when there are RISP -- especially clean-up hitters (or #5 hitter as it may be).

SLUG W./RISP 2002-2006 = .454

SLUG W/RISP 2007 = .568

SLUG W/RISP 2008 = .524

While Pena is slugging less than he did last year with RISP he still is doing a better job than he was before 2007. I guess a lot of this is in my head.

I also anecdotally observed that Pena was constantly striking out this season in important situation. His K/AB w/RISP are as follows:

2002-2006 = .30

2007 = .34

2008 = .39

So, yes Pena is striking out more often (5-10%) with RISP then he has in years past.

So what does all this mean. I have no idea, but I tend to think that the Carlos Pena we see right now is the Carlos Pena we are going to get for the rest of the year and for 2009 and 2010.

He does play excellent defense which increases his value to the team. However, I am beginning to doubt if the contract -- which I believe was 3 yrs for 24 mil -- is going to end up being a good one for the Rays. Since the average 1B salary is 5.4 million, I would have to say that it is looking like an ok signing. Carlos has been just about league average this season and historically (except for 2007) and he is being paid 2.5 mil more per year than the average 1B salary. His exceptional defense may make up for that 2.5 million gap.

Not trying to be a Carlos hater. He is one of my favorite players. I am just trying to objectively evaluate how valuable he will be for the Rays over the next 2.5 years.