SB Nation User Blog: RaysTheRoof

Hickey Back

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:23:20 -0000

Hickey Back

Fuck me.

Shutdown Shields and Garza

RaysTheRoof — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:38:23 -0000

We are out of the playoff race -- according to coolstandings.com are odds at capturing the wild card sit below 5%. At this point, it is time to start planning for next season. Not only does this entail evaluating minor leaguers who have a legitimate shot at contributing next season by giving them a few ML starts in September, it should also include resting proven assets who have been overworked.

Over the past two season James Shields has pitched 426 innings. Matt Garza has pitched 386 innings. Both of those numbers are high. Now, as we all know, determining the IP limit per season on a pitcher if far from a science. However, at this point I think it is fair to say that shutting down both Shields and Garza for the rest of the season won't hurt them and has the distinct possibility of helping them, and the team, going into 2010.

In their place, I would like the rotation to look something like this:

Niemann

Price

Davis

Talbot/Sonny

Hernandez/Cromer

I know this isn't sexy, but it is best for the team. It allows proven players to rest weary arms and gives the front office the ability to evaluate high-level minor league players who could contribute in the bullpen next year and who cost roughly half of a typical relief FA (i.e. Joe Nelson, Shouse, etc).

Hellickson is developing a sinker

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 16:15:11 -0000

Hellickson is developing a sinker

And is also chill. Nice article all around.

Fantastic Article from Dave Cameron

RaysTheRoof — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 23:46:56 -0000

Fantastic Article from Dave Cameron

My take: Be reasonable and don't let the way we enjoy the game stop us from positively interacting with people who enjoy it in a different manner. A lesson that needs to be learned by many in the sabermetric community.

Fastball Velocity: An Analysis

RaysTheRoof — Fri, 15 May 2009 22:23:51 -0000

I have seen a number of people on the board mention that it seems like every Rays pitcher's velocity is down this season. So I decided to investigate a) whether this is true and b) possible reasons for the decline. To test the former I gathered fastball velocity data for all current rays pitchers from this year and last year -- even if they weren't on the team last season. In order to more fully understand why there has been a decline in velocity among Rays pitchers I also gathered velocity info for rays 2008 pitchers who have moved on to different teams. The results presented below are pretty striking.

For a much nicer version of this spreadsheet please navigate to: http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=d2qgvjr_20dqg7bkfm

For some reason I can't seem to paste the image into the post.

Pitcher	2009	2008	Difference
Jackson	94.5	93.8	0.7
Miller	86.8	86.3	0.5
Hammell	91.7	91.7	0
Niemann	91.2	91.3	-0.1
Shields	90.2	90.4	-0.2
Sonny	86.8	87	-0.2
Shouse	80.2	80.5	-0.3
Garza	92.6	93.2	-0.6
Percival	90.4	91.4	-1
Howell	85.4	86.4	-1
Wheeler	87.8	88.9	-1.1
Cormier	89	90.2	-1.2
Balfour	92.7	94.6	-1.9
Kazmir	89.8	91.7	-1.9
Nelson	87.1	89.6	-2.5

All three pitchers to have gained velocity or stayed the same from last year to this year are ones who are no longer on the team (Jackson, Miller, Hammell). Every pitcher that the Rays acquired or those that stayed with the team lost velocity. There does not seem to be an obvious difference between newly acquired pitchers versus those who were here last year. For instance, Balfour, Nelson, and Kazmir have all lost at least 1.9mph of velocity. Again for a nice version of this spreadsheet go to: http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=d2qgvjr_20dqg7bkfm

Possible explanations:

1. The pitch f/x gun at the Trop is slow. This would mean that there should be obvious differences in home/away splits for both Rays and visiting pitchers. I am working on getting this data.

2. Pitchers weren't used enough during spring training. If this is the case, staff velocity should pick up as the season progresses.

3. Direct instruction from the pitching coaches to throw softer. This seems unlikely.

Explanations that can be ruled out:

1. The extended run into the postseason tired the staff out. If this was the case velocity should be down in returning pitchers and those who left the team, but not new acquisitions.

Any thoughts?

Question for those of you who have had mlb.tv:After a game is over and it becomes archived can you...

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 04:01:36 -0000

Question for those of you who have had mlb.tv:After a game is over and it becomes archived can you download it to your hard drive?
thanks.

Nate Silver is the man

RaysTheRoof — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:14:18 -0000

Nate Silver is the man

He nailed the popular vote. And assuming the Missouri holds for McCain and NC holds for Obama, the only state he missed on was Indiana. Absolutely amazing! Congrats to all the guys over at 538

I need 2 tickets to game 1. If you have anything near face value let me know. You can check my...

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 22:51:24 -0000

I need 2 tickets to game 1. If you have anything near face value let me know. You can check my profile -- I've been around all season. email me bjourdanwhite@yahoo.com if you have anything.

Thanks

i have a password to buy alcs tickets that I am not going to use. If you need it (and are a Rays...

RaysTheRoof — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:05:44 -0000

i have a password to buy alcs tickets that I am not going to use. If you need it (and are a Rays fan of course) email me a sportsindeed(at)yahoo.com and I will hook you up.

Make sure you email soon, the ticket buying start at 9 am.

Pathetic

RaysTheRoof — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 04:37:39 -0000

From the defense to the offense it was an awful night all around.

Taking the cake for most pathetic though was the crowd. This is a team in the midst of a pennant race for the first time in its history and there were empty seats everywhere! I don't care what the announced attendance was since that number is always manipulated; there is no way more than 13K fans were in the trop.

I'm sick of hearing the excuses for miserable attendance. It is simply embarrassing to see that many open seats.

In conclusion, the Bay Area should be ashamed of itself.