There recently has been an enormous amount of talk around the blogosphere about how the Twins are mishandling Kevin Slowey, which they are, but all of these posts got me to thinking. As we all know the teenagers’ mind is a dark and scary place, but at some point in the middle of the last night I had an epiphany; Free Ryan Sweeney (Next Year). Now before I make the argument for why Ryan Sweeney I would like to remind everyone that you can follow me on twitter at Ryan_Rigato or read the inspiration for today’s discussion in the form of yesterday’s Oakland Athletics’ offseason review.

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            In honor of the Greek God of slow starts, Chris Carter, being designated to the minors I figured now would be an excellent time to recap exactly how General Manager Billy Beane came about blocking the most powerful farmhand in the Athletics system.  Before we begin this off-season review was meant to spark conversation. I am by no means an expert, simply a sixteen-year old teenager trying to make a name for himself instead of working on his calculus homework. One more item before the jump, I recently have re-booted my twitter account to become Oakland Athletics central. So, if you have any A’s related questions, have a topic that you would like to seen investigated, or would simply like to follow my live tweets while I watch the Oakland Athletics games once the season begins; make sure to follow me at Ryan_Rigato.

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On the third of July, I was watching the Oakland Athletics play the Cleveland Indians, in the second game of a three game series. After giving up a two run blast to Jason Nix in the first inning, new call up Clayton Mortensen was starting to settle in on the mound. In the bottom of the fourth inning, Matt Laporta pulled a single into the gap between third and shortstop. As you can see in this "highlight," Austin Kearns was barely half-way to third when Gabe Gross butchered a ball in left field to allow two runs to score. The two runs that Gross gave up were huge as the Athletics went on to lose 5-4. This play, coupled with his overall results at the plate (or lack there of), has given me a reason to start second-guessing manager Bob Geren’s decision to give the playing time in left field, while Conor Jackson is hurt, to Gabe Gross over Rajai Davis.

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On the third of July, I was watching the Oakland Athletics play the Cleveland Indians, in the second game of a three game series. After giving up a two run blast to Jason Nix in the first inning, new call up Clayton Mortensen was starting to settle in on the mound. In the bottom of the fourth inning, Matt Laporta pulled a single into the gap between third and shortstop. As you can see in this "highlight," Austin Kearns was barely half-way to third when Gabe Gross butchered a ball in left field to allow two runs to score. The two runs that Gross gave up were huge as the Athletics went on to lose 5-4. This play, coupled with his overall results at the plate (or lack there of), has given me a reason to start second-guessing manager Bob Geren’s decision to give the playing time in left field, while Conor Jackson is hurt, to Gabe Gross over Rajai Davis.

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A few days ago in a 2-2 ballgame in the top of the tenth inning, their was a major pitchers duel going on in the Oakland vs. Cincinnati game. Coming in from the bullpen was Michael Wuertz to face Ramon Hernandez, (A former Athletic Ironically) who boasts a robust .107(!) ISO on the season. Ramon ripped a line drive home run shot down the left field line and it was all down-hill from their as the A's ended up losing 6-4. When you take a look at the replay here you see why even a measly hitter at the ripe age of 34 can hit an 89 mph fastball right down the middle. As the title suggests, something is different from the Michael Wuertz of this year and the one that put up 2.4WAR last year.

Through 11.2 innings pitched Wuertz has given up two home runs, but more importantly 7 walks, as compared to 9 strikeouts. That equates to an ugly 7.71 ERA, while the peripherals are equally bad with a 5.61 FIP and 5.14xFIP, these are not the numbers you would expect from a set-up reliever. When I first started looking into his stats it looked as though Wuertz was struggling with a case of bad luck- .369 BABIP(.300career BABIP); 13.3% HR/FB(10.0%); and 64.4LOB%(74%). Now, what caused me to think that this might not be a blip in a long season, with a small sample size, is that before Wuertz's age 31 season (2009), he did not perform at that high of a level.

In his entire major league career, spanning 260 innings before 2009, Wuertz racked up only 2.7 WAR. During the 2009 campaign, Wuertz was responsible for 2.4 WAR in only 78 innings. Which is the real Michael Wuertz, the one who had an outstanding season in 2009 or the one who was an average reliever from 2004-2008? Unfortunately for Wuertz (and the Oakland Athletics), sample size and the some of the advanced statistics from the 2009 season might indicate that some of Michael Wuertz's performance was "inflated."

The 2009 season for Wuertz included a .277BABIP, 8.5%HR/FB%, and 75.1LOB%. When looking at these numbers, the statistics are far below that of his career numbers. His 2009 season included a 2.63 ERA, 2.37 FIP, and a 2.61 xFIP. The FIP and xFIP were much lower than they probably should have been due to Wuertz's huge jump in his K/BB ratio compared to his career average.

The green line represents Wuertz's ratio, while the blue line represents the league average. This ratio was augmented by a career high 11.67 strikeouts per nine innings last year. Wuertz is known for his nasty slider/splitter pitch that has a devastating downward break, but what fueled Wuertz to strike out so many batters in 2009 was the slight rise in his fastball velocity, which kept hitters from sitting on his off-speed pitch. His fastball velo was at 90.9mph in 2009 and has since regressed to 89.3mph this year, according to pitch f/x data. The question posed earlier about who the real Michael Wuertz is requires a very complex answer. Wuertz is certainly not as bad as the -.2 WAR for this year suggests. However, a regression to the mean, a slight dip in velocity, and possible attrition from a high workload probably places Wuertz as an effective if unspectacular set-up man, just don't expect the dominant 2009 Michael Wuertz to show up any time soon.

     Well Cliff Pennington has been struggling lately, I’ll see you next week when we breakdown…, just kidding of course but that statement pretty much sums up Pennington’s time at the plate very accurately. Cliff has been on a recent slump that encompasses a total of six hits (3 doubles) and only five walks. That equals around a .186 wOBA, through 54 plate appearances. This small sample size made a big impact on his regular season wOBA, which now sits at only .278, despite a hot start to the season. That is very mediocre. One of the major issues with this slump that is extremely disturbing, is the body language Cliff exhibits while he is at the plate. Cliff seems tentative and indecisive, and opposing pitchers have taken advantage of his indecision.

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     Sorry to everyone who was looking forward to the post on Wednesday. I had to move it due to intense studying for finals (no fun by the way). I will continue posting from now on for the remainder of the series on every Friday.

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     Greetings to all of my fellow Oakland Athletic fans. Starting today, I will begin a week by week breakdown of the A’s, position by position. I will use up-to-date stats, advanced sabermetrics, fellow author’s perspectives, scouting reports, and any other available resources at my disposal. I will analyze current, future, and even trade deadline possibilities for each position. Today, I kick off the uber investigation and scrutinize first base.

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